Shuffling the Twins Roster Decisions

After making the hard, but correct, decision to move on from Phil Hughes, the Twins put some roster shuffling into motion. Trevor May, Ervin Santana, and Miguel Sano are all due back to the big league roster in short order. Paul Molitor's club is putting some heat on the scuffling Indians and the time to strike for Minnesota is right now. How they construct the 25 man going forward remains somewhat up in the air, but here's a few guess on what things may look like.

Phil Hughes replaced by Ryan LaMarre

The outfielder is on his way back to the big leagues. After being a spring training surprise, LaMarre posted a .718 OPS across 38 plate appearances in 20 games for Minnesota. Since heading down to Rochester, he's continued to stay hot. At Triple-A, he has a .371/.436/.543 slash line across nine games and 39 plate appearances.

The Twins don't really need six outfielders on the 25 man roster, and especially not with the talent embedded among their starting trio. That said, there's really no infield options that make sense here. It's too late for Nick Gordon as Sano isn't far off, and there aren't any more veteran placeholder types to call upon. This move could be short lived for LaMarre, but he appears to be destined for the 25th spot as of now.

Jake Cave replaced by Trevor May

While noting that LaMarre's time with the Twins could be short lived, it's also true that Cave could be the guy optioned in about a week. Trevor May is eligible to come off the disabled list on May 28, and every inclination is that he'll be activated that day. Having made starts with both Fort Myers and Rochester, May has been great in his seven innings pitched since returning from Tommy John surgery. The velocity has been there, and he's posted 10 strikes (with 5 walks), giving up just one run on four hits. Yes, he's working as a starter, but I just don't see room right now.

Should the Twins tab May for the spot Hughes was occupying in the pen, he can continue to stay stretched out in working as the long man. With the ability to give Garvin Alston two or three innings of work at a time, May provides some nice bullets in relief and also doubles as a fallback option in a spot start scenario.

Gregorio Petit replaced by Miguel Sano

Just a bit further out than May, Sano's return looms for the Twins. He's yet to play a full nine innings in the field during his three game rehab stint, but that's the next hurdle he'll overcome. There's no doubt he's a big boy, and adding that wrinkle to a hamstring injury doesn't help things. If the malady is behind him though, Minnesota could use that extra thump in their lineup sooner rather than later.

Once he's fully cleared, Sano should slide back in at third base moving Eduardo Escobar back to shortstop. It's unfortunate Escobar can't hack it defensively at short like he can at third, but the bat upgrade over Adrianza should be a noticeable one.

Matt Magill replaced by Joe Mauer

Here's where the dart throws begin in this whole process. First and foremost, we aren't sure when Mauer will be ready to return to the Twins lineup. Going on the DL effective May 19, the Twins first basemen is eligible to return on May 29th. Given his history of concussion related issues, it's far from certain that he'll be cleared in the given 10-day timespan.

Ideally, Mauer returns in short order and provides Minnesota the Gold Glove caliber defense they've come to trust at first. It's hard to imagine he'd replace a position player, as the Twins bench would be significantly dwindled in that scenario. With eight relievers, Magill would seem to be the odd man out. He's posted a 1.54 ERA and 7.7 K/9 while owning a great 0.8 BB/9 across his 11.2 IP. A move like this would be just a tough luck situation for the reclamation relief project.

TBD replaced by Ervin Santana

Call it a cop out, but I'm not ready to put a name on this move. Simply put, the Minnesota Twins have way too many moving parts in the starting rotation to determine who Santana will replace just under a month from now. I'd be shocked to see him before the middle of June, and making his first rehab start this week, he'll need at least three or four good turns to be big league ready.

Sure, it's an easy call if things stay like they are now. Lance Lynn being ineffective would bump him to the DL for a time and Santana could slot right in. Fernando Romero having his innings limited and being sent back to Triple-A could be an option. The real answer may have not yet presented itself and there may be an injury that allows Minnesota to have the decision made for them. The only thing worth banking on is that Santana will have a spot when he's ready. Where he slots in remains of little importance.

May Twins Mailbag: You've Got Questions

With the Minnesota Twins having just rolled off a handful of wins in a row, and in turn helping to reshape their season, I thought it a good time to field some questions on the action that has taken place. For those following along on Twitter (@tlschwerz), I asked for submissions of questions pertaining to the Twins, where they are now, and where I see them going in the weeks ahead. There were plenty of great submissions and here's a handful of my favorites.

If Dozier and the Twins don’t come to a deal this off season, what do you think of Escobar as an everyday 2nd baseman? Can he play 2nd?

— Pete Loosbrock (@Loosey1981) May 9, 2018

Right now, Eduardo Escobar is arguably the best thing going for the Twins. I recently wrote about his approach and the season he's put together in the early going. Based on his versatility and production, he's one of the best utility players in the big leagues. I'm less certain that the numbers hold up as a starter, but the floor should be a pretty respectable one as well. In regards to playing second base, the best answer I've got is that he should be able to.

No one has played much second for the Twins since Brian Dozier took over the position, and so any sample size is going to be small at best. While Escobar is awful at shortstop, he's plenty capable at third base. My feeling is that it would translate to the right side of the diamond just fine as well.

What is the realistic potential of this team in a couple of seasons if Berrios finds some consistency with Romero showing very promising potential and Gonsalves/Lewis/Gordon/ Kiriloff and others waiting in the wings and ideally Buxton and Sano stay somewhat healthy

— patrick rooney (@dadmanbroguy) May 9, 2018

This is a loaded question because there's so many what ifs and other factors at play. What I do think awaits the Twins is more winning, internally grown talent, and a lot of roster turnover. While I loved this offseason for Minnesota, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did a great job of not handing out any long term commitments. Sure, the window opening for a deep playoff run hinges on a group that includes the likes of Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, and Sano, but the rest of the pieces are capable or being interchanged.

We're probably two years off from guys like Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. We don't know what Gonsalves or Gordon will be at the big league level, and it's yet to be seen if someone like a LaMonte Wade or Brent Rooker will pan out. The core has been developed though, and it's a good one. Continuing to develop and supplement the group that remains should be the plan of action for at least the next 4-6 years.

No doubt having Buxton back is awesome.

But with the Twins bats currently rolling, are you for or against him coming back without a rehab assignment? Seems like they currently have the luxury or taking their time with him (helps that the division is in shambles)

— Peter May Jr. (@pmayjr) May 9, 2018

When you have a guy that's as good of a fielder as Buxton is, even when he's not hitting there's a difference being made. As with Andrelton Simmons, his glove was incredibly valuable even in all the years that he didn't do much at the plate. I wasn't a huge fan of Buxton needing a rehab assignment in the first place. Sure he hadn't played in over a week, but he was dealing with migraines, not some body altering malady needing to be re-trained.

In more than a handful of the Twins losses, having Robbie Grossman in the outfield was a significant problem for Minnesota pitchers. Removing that part of the equation, the Twins immediately take a step forward. I hope there's a time Buxton finds the consistency at the plate that he's shown in flashes. I don't believe playing a few games at levels he's crushed is going to do much for sparking that.

Minnesota Twins- Trend or Mirage

— Tony Lasky (@vidbikecurlguy) May 9, 2018

The answer to this likely depends on your interpretation of what the losing that took place was. For me, that was the mirage. Now winning five in a row, or nearly 99% of your games like the Yankees, isn't a norm any team should get used to. The reality is that the Twins played some really bad baseball in the first month, and they're a much better team than the record indicates.

Lance Lynn missed virtually all of spring training, the bats have been much colder than you'd expect, and the weather was anything but normal. I had this team pegged for 91 wins coming into the year. At this point, I still think they're more than capable of winning 85.

When Santana makes it back into the lineup, who do you see departing?

— Jaron Guiley (@IRONRANGER_218) May 9, 2018

There's no doubt Santana has a spot when he comes back, but who he takes over for remains in flux until the point in which he's ready to go. I still think it'll be June before we see him, and there's plenty of time for this to work itself out by then. Guys could get injured, Romero may need more seasoning, Lance Lynn may not settle in, there's plenty of options. The two arms I don't see going anywhere are Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson.

Making Most Of Ervin's Mishap

The Minnesota Twins were dealt a significant blow on February 6 when they found out the timetable for staff ace Ervin Santana's recovery. After undergoing surgery on his middle finger on his throwing hand, the club had to grasp the reality that he'll be on the shelf for the next 10-12 weeks. Putting his return sometime around late April or early May, Paul Molitor will have to make due in the meantime.

With that in mind, Minnesota's focus now has to be on where to go from here. At the current moment, the only starting locks remain Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. From there, Adelberto Mejia and Phil Hughes seem like good bets to claim a spot. The fifth and final spot should be up in the air for any number of arms to slot into. Names like Tyler Duffey, Dietrich Enns, Stephen Gonsalves. Fernando Romero, and Aaron Slegers should all be in the fold. Down in Fort Myers, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have to work with Molitor to figure out who gives them the best shot going forward.

Entering the offseason, the Twins needed to sign at least one top three arm. Someone that could slot in with Santana and Berrios was an absolute must for this roster. With a window of competitiveness opening, while the division itself got weaker, it simply made too much sense. That sentiment still rings true at this juncture, and the front office may even be looking at bringing in two arms to help pick up the slack. One thing is certain though, Santana's injury shouldn't change the course of the season.

At 35 years old, Santana has a ton of mileage on his arm. He's doled out more than his fair share of sliders, and he's contributed over 2,300 innings at the big league level in his 13 year career. Yesterday, Twins Daily contributor Tom Froemming noted that the track record for pitcher's over the age of 35 is far from spectacular. In 2017, only seven pitchers were able to post seasons with at least 100 IP while being at least 35 years of age. In short, the expectation for Santana to miss time could've been high from the onset. If we're looking for a positive here, it could be spun to suggest it's better than the time missed happens in April as opposed to September.

In 2017, Santana's 3.28 ERA was the second best mark of his career, and lowest since 2013. He posted a career high five complete games, and his 7th place finish in the Cy Young voting marked just the second time in 13 years that he's received votes. To put it simply, Santana was every bit the horse Minnesota needed a year ago.

Looking ahead to 2018, there should be significantly more help for the Twins pitching staff. First and foremost, the relief corps has been vastly improved. Additions like Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney both have tremendous upside, while Addison Reed is one of the best gets over the course of the entire offseason. Add in that the youth has another year of development under its belt, and the water level as a whole should be raised.

When all is said and done, injuries are going to occur for the majority of teams across Major League Baseball. The timing of Santana hitting the shelf is suboptimal, but there's significant points in the season in which the result could be much more detrimental. This team is still relatively void of superstar players and a next man up attitude should continue to be the mantra. Whether a rookie grabs a job out of spring training, or an established vet commands more from themselves, someone has an opportunity to fill Santana's shoes from the get go.

Santana Falls Victim To Useless Stat

Ervin Santana has been the talk of baseball in the first half of the 2017 Major League season. He has bucked his career trends and been among the games best starters. While there has been some slipping of late, against the Los Angeles Angels, Santana recorded his 4th complete game of the season. Unfortunately he ends up on the wrong side of the decision, only to highlight the uselessness of the pitcher win.

For the past few years, there's been any number of talking heads that have pointed out baseball's dated numbers. From statistics such as Wins to saves, and ERA to batting average, we're at a place in the game where we can more accurately understand it. In the tilt between the Twins and the Angels on July 5th, we saw more than a few of those useless statistics in play.

First and foremost, Santana's complete game comes into focus. It was his fourth of the 2017 season, meaning he's already thrown more as an individual, than any other team in baseball. Across the 9.0 innings he worked, Angels hitters tallied 7 hits and 2 runs while walking twice and striking out five times. Throwing 80 of his 117 pitches for strikes, Santana was economical, and largely sharp on the evening. When the dust settled though, the win went to Angels rookie Parker Bridwell. Bridwell was fantastic in his own right, but threw three less innings before handing the game over to his relievers.

Then there's the double whammy of how Santana lost his opportunity, and it hurt his line as well. With Cameron Maybin at 3rd base and Kole Calhoun at 1st, the Angels made Minnesota look like an aloof bunch of high schoolers. Calhoun broke for second, and Minnesota Catcher Jason Castro fired all the way through to second. Neither Brian Dozier nor Eduardo Escobar acted as if there was a steal play on to cut the ball off and throw home. Maybin has plenty of speed, and he made it home easily as the Twins essentially gave him the run. All of this took place while Santana stood on the mound and watched, being credited with an earned run.

Looking back at that series of events as a whole, it couldn't be more clear why surface stats have been now aided by a further dive into what takes place on the diamond. ERA is hardly the be-all-end-all for a pitcher. Given the discretion of an official scorer, a pitcher is at the mercy of interpretation. In this instance, that run was much more Castro, Dozier, and probably even Paul Molitor's fault than it was the pitcher's. In allowing that runner to cross the plate Minnesota's run in the bottom of the 7th just drew Santana closer, but didn't lead to him having an opportunity to get the win.

Baseball Prospectus' Aaron Gleeman tweeted out after last night's game that Bert Blyleven owns the most complete game losses in Twins history with 45. While that seems like a staggering number (and it is), what's worse is how good he was in those games. he went on to highlight that while Bert went 0-45 in those games, he posted an ERA of 2.99. So, Blyleven was exactly as good as Santana has been all of 2017 as a whole (his ERA currently sits at 2.99) and gave his Minnesota teams 9 innings, just to be tagged with a loss each time.

I can understand why needing to pin the win or loss on a pitcher is a necessary practice. With that being said, there should absolutely be the caveat that the weight it carries is minimal at best, and rarely indicative of the game's actual flow.

When pitchers are being decided upon for awards at the end of the season, the win stat is one often pointed to. Last year's AL Cy Young winner was 22-game winner Rick Porcello. Given the landscape of options in 2016, he was far from an egregious choice, but it was likely that win total that tipped the scales for him over the equally (or maybe more) deserving Justin Verlander.

At the end of the day, Ervin Santana twirled a gem for no less than the fourth time in 2017. He wasn't credited with a statistic saying as much and his overall numbers suffered due to a gaffe he had nothing to do with. All baseball statistics aren't created equal, and the more we challenge the validity of each, the better understanding we will have.

Ervin Servin Up An Uncatchable Problem

Way back in 2015, I wrote about Ervin Santana and what he was bringing to the Twins after signing as a free agent. The crux of the piece was that he needed to show an ability to be more than his surrounding parts. He's been a great pitcher when paired with great defenses. That has been the case in 2017 for the Twins, but in June, his defense hasn't been able to be a factor.

As doom and gloom sets in of late, it's first worthwhile to offer some perspective. Santana has made 15 starts for the Twins, and pitched exactly 100 innings. He owns a career best 2.97 ERA and his 1.020 WHIP also registers as a high water mark. Throw in three dazzling complete game shutouts, and the sum of all parts still equals a very fun-to-watch 2017. In June though, the wheels have fallen off, and it's worth finding out why.

Having now made four starts in the month of June, Santana owns a 7.04 ERA while opposing hitters are enjoying a .972 OPS against him. He's labored to get through outings, going more than five innings just once. In fact, had he not thrown a complete game shutout against the Giants as one of the four starts, the already gaudy numbers could look even worse. In taking a deep dive to find a deficiency, it seems that Santana has become susceptible to the ball that can't be caught. He's given up seven homers in four June starts, after allowing just eight in his other 11 combined.

On the year, Santana has danced around danger by avoiding hard contact. He's given up low line drive rates, and the ball simply hasn't been difficult to track down. Some of that has continued in June, but as the ball has elevated, so too have the numbers.

Santana has actually dropped his line drive rate from 15.5% (4/3-5/29) to 11.4 % (6/3-6/20) as the months have gone on, but the hard hit rate has spiked ever so briefly from 24.5% (4/3-5/29) to 28.8% (6/3-60/20). As the ball has been hit harder, the Twins aced has seen a BABIP go from .143 through the first two months, to .315 in the last one. Giving his fielders less of a chance to help him out, he's also watched his FIP balloon from 4.19 through May to 6.82 in June. The icing on the cake is pretty simply though; the amount of fly balls turning into home runs is incredible. At just 9.2% through May, that number has spiked to 25% in June.

Among qualified starters, only six pitchers have allowed over 20% of fly balls to leave the yard. Of those, only the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka has given up a 25.0% HR/FB rate, and his ERA rests at 6.34. Pretty obviously, allowing one out of every four fly balls to leave the stadium is not a path to success.

Santana is a guy that has seen his fair share of homers allowed, but it's never been an egregious problem for him outside of 2012 with the Angels when he led the league with 39. After giving up 1.0 and 0.9 HR/9 with the Twins each of the past two years, Santana has seen the total swell to 1.4 in 2017, ow the worst mark since that 2012 season. Before June hit, that total was at just 1.0 on the year.

In trying to figure out what has changed, Santana doesn't offer a whole lot of clues. He's allowing less line drives of the past month, and while the hard contact is slightly up, he's actually decreased the flu ball rate by just over 8%. If there is something that jumps off the page however, it's the usage of his pitches.

Through May 29, or his 11th start, Santana was throwing his changeup 14.7% of the time. In the month of June, he's cut that number down to 8.2%. As we can see in comparing his pitch types by count in April/May up against June, the changeup is a pitch he's all but abandoned in multiple scenarios. Not only has he turned away from it in pitcher's counts (namely 2-2 and 1-1), but he's not using it to keep hitters off balance either (3-0, 3-1, 2-1). It's not a pitch he's thrown at 14% over the course of his career, but it is something pitching coach Neil Allen is known for, and an offering that the Twins ace appeared to be having success with.

We could absolutely look back on the month of June late in the season and see it as a blip on the radar. Santana could simply have a confidence issue he's working through, and this could easily be put behind him. It could also end up being a turning point that spoils what began as a very exciting start.

There's no denying that Ervin Santana has always been a pitcher held up by a strong defense. He's capable on his own, and elevates his game by using the guys behind him. When allowing the ball to leave the yard as much as he has however, no one is able to come to the rescue, and things snowball as they have. Whether turning back to the changeup, or finding some other way to right the ship, Minnesota needs Santana to give himself and his fielders a chance.

Defense Remains Answer For Twins

Way back in November, I wrote that the Twins number one priority before the 2017 season should be to sign a legitimate catcher. With Kurt Suzuki on his way out, they needed someone that could command the game behind the plate. Jason Castro brought that, and has helped in being an answer to the Twins pitching woes. The other part of the equation is the defensive mastery Minnesota has shown, and it continues to be the narrative in 2017.

Right now, we are through just 59 games in the 2017 season, and the Twins have already used eight different starting pitchers and 23 total arms. Of those starters, only Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios have an ERA south of 4.00. Three pitchers, all of which were in the Opening Day rotation (Hughes, Gibson, and Santiago), have started at least nine games with ERA's north of 5.00. Among Twins starters, only Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia are truly striking anyone out.

In short, the summary of the Twins starting staff remains relatively status quo. It's a group of guys that don't get the ball by many big leaguers, and the final spots are interchangeable as the club looks for someone to stick. Because of the strong performances by both Santana and Berrios however, Minnesota is 13th in the MLB when it comes to starter ERA. Given where the club has been in recent seasons, that's a significant leap forward.

The story hasn't been great in the bullpen either. With eight different starters being used, the Twins have turned to 15 different pen arms already. The group has compiled a 5.48 ERA, dead last in all of baseball. Right now, there's still room to cycle guys in, and with the likes of Matt Belisle and Criag Breslow struggling, 40 man roster moves could be coming as well.

Really what Minnesota is showing us, is that the results are indicative of minor tweaks, rather than a completely redone process. A year ago, the Twins used 11 different starters and a club record, 29 different pitchers. I'd bet we get by the latter number, but this club is currently in first place. 2016 was a perfect storm of failed expectations across the board. In deciding to look at catching and defense, Minnesota has masked what otherwise could've been another disastrous pitching season.

It's relatively difficult to quantify Jason Castro's presence behind the plate, but it's not hard to see. He commands the zone as good as anyone in the big league's, and he's been a welcomed presence for pitcher's that have really needed him at times. His framing skills are heralded, but the effect he has on a game goes deeper. With a 39% caught stealing percentage, the running game has been mitigated to a certain extent, and pitchers are more easily able to focus on the task at hand.

When you get to the fielders, the Twins are much more than just Byron Buxton in center field. With 27 DRS on the season, Minnesota is second in baseball (Red have 34 DRS) when it comes to saving runs, Looking at UZR, Minnesota checks in right behind the Reds (19.1) with an 18.1 mark. Given the ranger of players not only in the outfield, but Joe Mauer at first base, the club is getting to more balls than the vast majority of big league clubs. Although their pitchers are still struggling to get the ball by hitters, it being put in play is no longer a detriment.

Each time you look at the Twins having to cycle out a pitcher and bring someone else in, there's a bit of gloom that sets over someone not living up to expectations. In 2017 though, the pitching staff is just a small cog in an otherwise well-oiled machine. This organization couldn't say that a year ago, as the total of its parts were a mess. Right now, the Twins can plug in multiple options on the mound, and be confident in the guy behind the dish, and the seven fielders on the diamond.

At some point, Minnesota can significantly raise the water level by adding some impact pitching. Whether that's through the draft, trades, or free agency, a big time starter or two will only advance this club further. For now though, the pitching is just a part of the puzzle, and while the job is lackluster at times, the sum of all parts equals a really positive result.

What If The Twins Buy?

Earlier this month, I wrote about why I believe the Minnesota Twins must trade Ervin Santana. Sure, regardless of his 2017 output, he's not some reinvented pitcher that's going to command a teams top prospects. However, he's more valuable long term to the Twins if the organization can flip him for some solid pieces. What's worth wondering though, is if Minnesota's winning ways have the organization positioned to be buyer's this summer.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Twins current level of play isn't going to be sustainable, or at least result in a playoff berth. If the club is still in the thick of things this summer though, an argument could be made to buy with an eye on the future. Rather than mortgaging your upcoming window for instant gratification, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could add some pieces to help in 2017 and beyond.

Looking at the current construction of both the 25 and 40 man roster, the biggest deficiency remains on the mound. Minnesota is starved for starting pitching depth, and the bullpen is a pieced together hodgepodge. The Twins could take on some arms, with the intention of retaining them for 2018 and beyond, and feel much better about whatever they must give up.

So, who are some candidates in this scenario? Let's take a look:

Sonny Gray- Oakland Athletics

Gray is a name that I believe the former regime had some interest in. He was pretty awful a season ago, and then he got hurt. Through five turns in the rotation this season however, Gray has been an asset for the Athletics, and has posted the best K/9 (8.5) and BB/9 (2.4) numbers of his career. When right, he can be counted on for 200 innings, and his strikeout numbers would be a lift to a Minnesota rotation void of them. At 27, he's not a free agent until 2020, meaning Minnesota would have to part with some decent pieces. I'm not certain he's a one, or even a two starter, but he'd help in Minnesota to be sure.

Matt Shoemaker- Los Angeles Angels

There's little denying that Los Angeles may have the worst farm system in all of baseball, and they don't have much at the big league level either. The Angels should be trying to pair Mike Trout with talent in his prime, and dealing a 30 year old like Shoemaker could help. He's not a top tier starter by any means, but a career 3.82 ERA would fit for the Twins. He's a middle-of-the-road strikeout guy (Much like Gray), and he doesn't issue many free passes (2.1 career BB/9). He's 30 now, and isn't a free agent until 2021. Again, Minnesota would need to return assets, but that's a controllable pitcher you'd be happy with.

Ivan Nova- Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a tricky situation, as I'm not really sure what to believe Nova is. He's been nothing short of spectacular since arriving in Pittsburgh, but this season, he hasn't struck anyone (4.8 K/9) out and has limited damage by not walking anyone (0.6 BB/9). He's on an incredibly affordable deal making just $26m through 2019. The Pirates may be inclined to deal Gerrit Cole, who has significantly more upside, but he's going to command quite a haul. If Nova could be had for a modest price, he's a middle-of-the-rotation option that the Twins could key in on.

Yu Darvish- Texas Rangers

The lone rental of this foursome, Darvish is a name I think makes a lot of sense for Minnesota, the question is when. If the Twins deal during the season, they'd need the Rangers to fall back out of contention. There's obviously history there with Thad Levine, and Darvish being a free agent in 2018, he's a name I hope Minnesota seriously pursues. Darvish is a true ace, and the Twins have money to spend this offseason. He's a strikeout machine, and he's responded well (3.23 ERA 10.8 K/9 3.2 BB/9) since undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing 2015. Darvish would be a great feature atop the Twins rotation, and at just 30 years old, he's a guy they could ink to one more, big, long-term deal.

I'm still not convinced, even with a winning record, that the Twins should be looking at adding significant pieces in season. Nova is really the only name mentioned above that shouldn't command at least one strong prospect. However, if Minnesota is going to make the move with a long term focus, there's reasons to argue for it. Over the winter, there's plenty of different names that could be on the Twins radar. The club could also consider someone like the Giants Johnny Cueto, depending upon how he chooses to navigate his contract and opt out scenario.

At the end of the day, no winning in 2017 should deter the focus from 2018 being a true window. This club has money to spend, and bringing in a couple of top tier arms is something that could set them over the top. Dealing for them hurts the farm, but if you bring in somewhat of a sure thing that will help you down the road and make the end of the season interesting, so be it.

The Twins Blockbuster Yet To Come

Over the offseason, there was no such thing as Twins talk that didn't include the discussion surrounding Brian Dozier. After launching 42 (43) homers, Minnesota was out for a king's ransom in return for their prized second basemen. When the Dodgers eventually bowed out in favor of Logan Forsythe, Minnesota took their toys and went home. It's worth wondering though, is Dozier even the most valuable trade chip that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine possess?

He's not a true number one starter by any means, but the Twins ace Ervin Santana has gotten off to a blistering pace in 2017. He currently owns a big league leading 0.66 ERA. He's 5-0 through six starts, and has already tallied a complete game shutout. His 0.707 WHIP is nearly half of his career 1.268 mark and both his K/9 and BB/9 fall right in line with his career averages.

Now, you'd be silly to extrapolate a six start sample size to the duration of the season. However, for a starting pitcher, six games equates to roughly 20% of the expected workload. While it's still just the beginning, it's a more significant piece of the puzzle than anything a hitter has compiled through one month of meaningful action.

I wrote about Santana a bit ago, and that this season isn't all that out of nowhere for him. Of course predicting him to be this good is a stretch, but the reality is that he's been good for a while, and a few small tweaks, along with good defense has helped him immensely. Santana owns a 2.98 FIP to date, nearly a full run better than at any other point in his career. He's also generated more weak contact than any starting pitcher not named Andrew Triggs.

This sample size can be extended back even a bit further as well. Dating back to July 2016, Santana has posted a 1.93 ERA along with a 3.22 FIP. Opposing hitters have batted just .184 off of him in those 22 starts, and his WHIP rests at 0.95. Behind him, he's had an outfield composed mainly of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. If and when he's allowing contact to the grass, it's generally falling into leather.

Attempting to put some sort of a bow on it, Santana has elevated himself slightly, and has also enjoyed some very strong defense behind him. He's been the Twins ace, and among the best pitcher's in the game. It's really not a small sample size at this point, and you can bet other teams are taking notice.

So with those other teams, the Twins could find themselves in the driver's seat. Last offseason, Minnesota was tasked with attempting to get fair value for a second basemen that hit 14 more homers than his previous career best, and posted an OPS over .100 points north of the season before. Brian Dozier was, and remains, a regression candidate in every sense of the word. That's not to sell Dozier short, even at a .760 OPS and 25 home run total, he's a very nice big leaguer, the problem is the market has a good deal of those.

Arguably moreso now than at any point in recent memory, the second base position in the big leagues is stacked. From Altuve to Cano, and Kinsler to Murphy, there's at least 10 (or one-third) legitimate star two baggers. With that being the reality, the position remains both a luxury, and one that many top teams have accounted for.

When talking to the Dodgers, Minnesota targeted Jose De Leon in exchange for Dozier. They also asked for names like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler, neither of whom could've ever been had even straight up. De Leon entered 2017 averaging somewhere around the 30th best prospect, and he's yet to pitch this season after dealing with injury troubles. Minnesota was wise to want more for a player that means so much to their franchise, but getting a fair return for Dozier is likely always going to be an uphill battle.

That leads us to this; what if Ervin Santana is actually the more valuable piece? Pitching is always going to be at a premium, and Santana comes controllable at $27.m over the next two seasons. For a guy that's been anywhere close to what he's produced, that's larceny. On the flip side, Dozier's team control ends after next season, and he's due for a raise well above the $9m he's slated to make.

If the Twins can continue to hover around .500, it probably makes more sense for them to hold onto everything, make a splash in the offseason, and go for it in 2018 and beyond. If they don't see that window ready to break open however, it very well could be Santana that restocks the farm, and that wasn't likely the case even a few months ago.

Twins Chart Topping Early

Through the first month of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have been as some would've expected. Sure, coming off a franchise worst 103 losses, .500 may have seemed incredible to most, but they remained largely the same team that was competitive during 2015. After a winning April, Minnesota has more than a handful of players doing some good things.

While it's worth breaking down individual performances, gleaning too much from under 100 at bats is a pretty tough ask. For the purpose of this post, examining where some of the Twins are leading the way is the goal. There's ample examples, and the names come from all over the lineup. Let's get into it.

Ervin Santana

With a 0.77 ERA, Santana is pacing MLB in the category. He also holds the best WHIP (0.66) and batting average against (.116) in the game. With four wins under his belt, he's well on his way to eclisping the 2016 total of seven. Santana is generating soft contact 23% of the time (21st in MLB) and is really enjoying a strong defense behind him.

Miguel Sano

No one in all of baseball has a higher average exit velocity than Miguel Sano's 99+ mph total. He is absolutely destroying baseballs this season, and it's led to a .450 BABIP. Haven taken 18 walks (2nd in AL), Sano has really honed in his discipline at the plate, and he's punishing pitchers for allowing him to make contact. His 2.1% soft contact rating is the lowest in MLB. Although it doesn't mean much of anything, Sano is also leading the American League with 25 RBIs.

Joe Mauer

If there's a guy that is destined to turn things around to a certain extent for the Twins, it's Mauer. He's batting just .225, but owns the lowest swinging strike rate in MLB (2.1%). Mauer is hitting the ball harder this season than in any since 2013, and his fly ball rate has doubled (41.9%) from a year ago. At some point, he's going to see more balls drop for base hits.

Jorge Polanco

While you may expect Mauer not to fan on too many pitches, Jorge Polanco is right there with him. With just a 3.9% swinging strike rate, Polanco owns the third best tally in the big leagues (behind only Mauer and Rockies D.J. LeMahieu). Also somewhat surprisingly, it's Polanco with 4 DRS at short that is pacing the Twins defensively. As recently as April 30, that was among the top numbers in the big leagues.

Brandon Kintzler

Maybe flying somewhat under the radar, the Minnesota closer owns the second highest save total (7) in the American League. Kintzler is a perfect 7-7 in save opportunities, and owns just a 0.79 ERA across 11.1 IP. Sustainability is worrisome as he's walking more and striking out fewer, but for now, he's making it work.

Right now, the season is still in it's infancy. Given what the Twins are coming off of though, it's nice to see the club playing .500 baseball, and with a realistic path to see that same level of competency continue throughout the summer.

Ervin Santana Giving Twins A Good Problem

The Minnesota Twins have seen a nice turnaround to start the 2017 Major League Baseball season. Hovering around the .500 mark, Paul Molitor's squad looks much more reflective of their true talent level than the team did just a season ago. You could argue that the club's main attraction thus far has been their ace Ervin Santana. This go round though, he's not just the Twins ace, but is currently pitching better than anyone in baseball.

A couple of years ago, I wrote a piece on Ervin Santana and what he needed to do in order to be effective in Minnesota. The crux of the discussion is that on his own, Santana has had a solid career, and his best years have come with good outfields behind him. Up until this point, that's something the Twins ace hasn't been able to say. Now with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario behind him on a nightly basis, he's enjoying the returns.

Through five starts, Santana owns a 42.4% fly ball rate. That's the highest mark of his career since 2010 with the Los Angeles Angels. His ground ball rate is on par with his career averages, and his line drive rate is actually reduced. Summarizing the balls put in play. Santana is getting more fly outs, and combining that with the fact they aren't being hit as hard (his 24.1% hard hit rate is a career low).

When it comes to stuff, Santana isn't rewritting his book by any means. He's still throwing fastballs, sliders, and changeups all at the same relative velocity. In fact, outside of his changeup, which he's relied on a bit more, Santana is utilizing his repertoire in roughly the same fashion as well. He's not getting opposing hitters to chase that much more (33.1% is a career high, but just up from 31.4% in 2016), and he's actually generating less swinging strikes (8.4%). Batters are being allowed to put the ball in play (82.3% contact rate is a career high), but Ervin is also striking out just over one-fifth of the batters he faces (21.1% K rate).

Again, it's not some reinvention of the wheel, but rather a solid pitcher that's been given exceptional circumstances. We also see the evidence in looking at Santana's FIP mark to date, 3.06. With a sparkling 0.77 ERA, it's actually been the fielding that has helped to significantly elevate the overall results.

When broken down to results, Santana finds himself atop the proverbial mountain for the time being. He's 4-0 through five starts. His 35.0 IP have yielded just three earned runs, and he's got a serviceable 2.6 K/BB ratio. Leading the league in WHIP (0.657) as well as hits per nine (3.3), the Dominican has himself positioned to benefit exponentially from good defense behind him.

There's been plenty of talk regarding what to do with Byron Buxton. He's scuffled to start 2017, and his bat has lagged behind his glove. Although that's turned somewhat recently, it will remain a question how much Minnesota can give up offensively to keep their outfield defense in tact. I'd imagine if the club asked Ervin Santana of his preference, it'd be that those behind him in the field stay the same.

Unlike volatile signings like Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, players that had a pretty wide variety of potential outcomes, Ervin Santana always appeared to be a safe, high floor pitcher for the Twins.He's proving as much at this point, and the strong defensive effort is elevating him to new heights. As the year draws on, the Twins will find themselves with a decision to make.

Minnesota is on the hook to pay Santana $13.5 million in 2018, with a $14m team option in 2019, or a $1m buyout. If the club continues to tread water around the .500 mark, it makes sense to keep Santana and pair him with a top tier arm for a playoff push a year from now. Should the timeline look farther off, they could have arguably the most valuable trade chip on the market come the middle of the summer. It's a good problem to have, and for an organization that has been pitching starved for so long, a welcomed one.

It could've been expected that a focus on catching and defense would raise the ability of the pitching staff, but Santana is making that work to perfection. By and large, he's the same guy he's always been, and the sum of Minnesota's parts has turned him into a gem to start the year. Now, it's up to the entire collection to keep it rolling.

So You Wanna Make A Bet: 2017 Minnesota Twins

With Opening Day of the 2017 Major League Baseball season upon us, it's time to take a look at what could be ahead for the home nine. There's plenty of projection systems out there giving us indications of what may happen, but only through a sports book can you make concrete guesses that equal out to dollars and cents. It's time to take a look at the over/unders for all things Twins related.

Pulled from Bovada, there's both individual as well as team specific over/unders for the 2017 season. Although the Twins don't have anywhere close to a national following, there's still a good number of big name players with specific achievements tabulated for them. Whether $5 or $500, here's your guide as to where you confidence should lie while putting up some cash on the Twinkies.

Brian Dozier HRs 29.5

Coming off a campaign in which he launched 42 longballs, Brian Dozier is in for some regression. The question that needs to be answered, is how far backwards does the Twins second basemen go? In 2016, he became the only player not named Harmon Killebrew to hit 40 HRs in a season for Minnesota. Prior to that effort, he launched 23 and 28 respectively. In 2016, Dozier's HR/FB% was a career best 18.4% and well off his 12.7% career mark. If there's a Twins player I'm betting on hitting 30 homers in 2017, it's a husky 3B, not Dozier.

Bet: Under 4* (Based on a 1* to 5* confidence rating)

Ervin Santana Wins 10.5

A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting staff in the big leagues. Not one pitcher picked up more than nine wins, and that was from Tyler Duffey, who was sent to Triple-A at one point. In two seasons with Minnesota, Santana has yet to record double-digit wins (albeit his 2015 was shortened). This season, he should have a solid offense behind him, but the question has to be in regards to how many leads the early season bullpen gives up. Pitcher wins are a fickle stat, and on a bad staff, I want no part of them.

Bet: Under 2*

Joe Mauer AVG .270

It's been three years since Joe Mauer has finished a season with an average north of .270. In 2014, the former MVP batted .277 with a .732 OPS across 120 G for the Twins. This season, Paul Molitor has talked plenty about how he'll need to give his first basemen regular rest, and target a lesser load to get the best out of him. If that is followed through upon, Mauer has a chance to put up his best season since being an All Star in 2013. Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber first basemen that just can't play every day anymore, Should Minnesota use Mauer correctly, and more against RHPs (.793 OPS vs RHP .610 OPS vs LHP in 2016), then he has a very realistic shot to impress.

Bet: Over 3*

Max Kepler HR 17.5

This is one of the most interesting numbers in the set. Kepler is not a traditional power hitter in that his swing is more reflective of a smooth stroke that simply runs into the ball. I like Kepler a lot, and think he'll make a nice career of doing damage in the gaps. He blasted 17 homers in just 113 games a year ago, and should have more opportunities this season. Kepler's lobgalls came in bunches though, and bolstered by a three-HR game, he hit 12 in a 26 game span. I'll go out on a limb here and say Byron Buxton hits more longballs than the German in 2017.

Bet: Under 2*

Miguel Sano HR 29.5

Do you know what the Twins third basemen is going to do a lot of in 2017? He's going to strike out. Miguel Sano is also going to send a lot of baseballs into the stratosphere. Last season, in 116 games, Sano hit 25 homers. Over that time, he was told to learn a new (and odd) position, and he wasn't healthy for a good portion of the season. Regardless of the setbacks, Sano came up just five dingers shy of the 30 mark. In 2017, I'd expect Sano to strike out no less than 200 times, but when he hits 35 homers, it's not going to matter much.

Bet: Over 4*

Minnesota Twins Wins 74.5

Wrapping up the list is the team number. Coming off of a 103 loss season, winning 75 games seems like a massive jump. The reality though, is that the 2016 outfit wasn't anything significantly different than the 2015 team that won 83 games. If there's something of a wildcard here, I think it's Paul Molitor. He's mismanaged his lineup and bullpen for some time, and that's going to cost a team needing to steal wins. At the end of the day though, I think the Twins have a better chance at winning 80 games, than I see them losing 90.

Bet: Over 3*

Twins Still Looking For Next Radke

As the 2017 Major League Baseball season quickly approaches, the Minnesota Twins are nearly set to embark on sunny Fort Myers, Florida for Spring Training. There's not a lot of unknowns for the upcoming season, and much of Paul Molitor's club having success rests on known commodities stepping up. As pitching continues to remain a focal point, the Twins are still looking for their version of an ace, or an embodiment of Brad Radke.

On April 3, 2017, the Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals. It's nearly a guarantee that Ervin Santana will take the mound for Molitor's club, and in doing so, will be somewhat out of the norm. In making a second straight Opening Day start for the home nine, the Twins will give the ball to the same pitcher to open consecutive seasons for the first time since Carl Pavano in 2012 and 2011. While back-to-back years with some top of the rotation certainty is nice, it's hardly a calming realization.

In looking at the way in which the Twins have toed the rubber on Opening Day, they've yet to have a pitcher get the ball on three consecutive Opening Day starts since Brad Radke's run of seven straight years ended in 2005. Since then, Minnesota has asked nine different pitchers to make Opening Day starts. Although an Opening Day nod does not an ace make, it's a level of consistency that Minnesota has long lost.

Brad Radke pitched 12 big league seasons and was a one-time All Star. He generated Cy Young votes once, in his age 24 season, and had a relatively mediocre big league career. What he was though, was a staple in the Twins rotation, and a guy that could be relied upon on a yearly basis. His career K/9 checked in at just 5.4, but he tallied just 1.6 BB/9 over his 2,451 major league IP. His career 4.22 ERA wasn't anything to blow you away, and while his career earnings topped $61 million, he never got any sort of an ace level payday.

The reality is that the Twins of today need their version of Radke. Looking up and down the system, there's next to no true top of the rotation potential. Fernando Romero has been dubbed a potential ace for the Twins, but he's a ways away from being able to prove that at the big league level. Ervin Santana has been a steadying force among the Twins rotation, but given the current landscape, would be an ideal trade candidate.

At some point, the Twins need to develop some pitching.

We're not too far removed from the Twins throwing money at free agent arms. Terry Ryan overspent on a guy like Ricky Nolasco, before appropriately allocating on Phil Hughes (only to extend him and make it a less than ideal scenario). Every team needs top tier pitching, and the reality is that Minnesota is going to be beat out dollars wise on the market more often than not. It only highlights how much more important that internal mastery be achieved.

With high draft picks in recent years, the Twins have taken arms such as Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay. The former looks like a failing high school pick that can't miss bats, while the latter profiles better as the reliever he was in college. Knowing where the franchise is, missing on must-hit arms can't continue to be a trend.

If you've made it this far, I'm sorry that I can't offer you much in the form of hope. Maybe we just highlighted already accepted information, but maybe it again calls into focus how difficult landing top arms truly is. Ervin Santana will throw a second straight Opening Day for the Twins. Sure, that's a feat for this organization, but the reality is that he's not an ace, and right now, he's not even Minnesota's ghost of Brad Radke.

What Are The Twins Waiting For On Santana?

The Major League Baseball offseason is now well into the heart of winter. Multiple big name free agents have been signed, and a handful of large trade chips have been moved. For the Minnesota Twins, the talk has been all about Brian Dozier and a potential fit with the Los Angeles Dodgers. What's worth wondering though is why the club hasn't shopped Ervin Santana more.

Entering 2017, Santana will be 34 years old, and still have two years left on his contract (as well as a 2019 team option). He's coming off a season in which he posted his best ERA since 2013, and was nothing short of dominant for stretches during the year. Over his final 18 starts, he tallied a 2.41 ERA and allowed opposing hitters just a .589 OPS against him. For the Twins, Santana represented an ace.

The unfortunate reality however is that Minnesota still lost a franchise worst 103 games. Santana was only given enough run support to record a 7-11 win/loss record over his 30 starts, and in the grand scheme of the season, his strong year did little to elevate the club to any new heights. To summarize, Paul Molitor's club lost consistently despite Santana's efforts.

On the mound, his numbers were backed by physical prowess as well. His 92.7 mph average fastball velocity was the hardest he has thrown since 2008 with the Angels. The Dominican native was generating over a 10% swinging strike rate for just the fourth time in his career, and he was allowing one of the lowest contact rates of his big league tenure at 78.8%. Again, despite the Twins not seeing any success, the opposite was true with Ervin Santana.

Now the idea on dealing Brian Dozier is that he's a luxury for the Twins. They aren't in a position to make a playoff run any time in the immediate future, and Dozier is coming off a great season in which he should command a nice return. If the Twins are looking to accumulate talent, trading a player like Dozier at this point in time is exactly how you do it. What's interesting is that many of the same principles apply to Ervin Santana.

Sure, Santana is just under five years older than Minnesota's second basemen. He also is owed at least $28 million over the next three years as opposed to Dozier's $15 million. What Santana does have going for him though is a market void of pitching options, and teams starving for them. This offseason, Rich Hill was given just shy of $50 million after spending part of 2015 pitching in Indy Ball. One rule is always true, teams will pay for pitching and even moreso when there is little to be had.

It's possible, though rather unlikely, that the Twins make the playoffs in the next two seasons. They don't have the pieces to make a deep run, and Ervin Santana doesn't push the envelope significantly farther than the position the club would be in without him. That brings us to what should be a realization that he's an expendable asset. While Minnesota doesn't have pitching on its own, flipping Santana for a prospect or two that pairs with the timeline of the club's ability to compete makes a lot of sense.

You can make the argument that Santana may have value around the July trade deadline with the Twins having paid more of his contract. However, he's coming off his best performance in years, and any steps backwards could negate the monetary gain. If I'm the Twins, I'd be equally as aggressive in shopping Santana as they have been on Dozier, obviously knowing the return will be different.

When you don't have pitching it's tough to compete, but hanging onto depreciating assets to create the illusion you have pieces doesn't make a ton of sense either. Minnesota would be best served to get something back for Santana before it's too late.

Where Does The Twins Pitching Come From?

A year after having the worst starting pitching staff in the big leagues, the Minnesota Twins will be looking to turn a significant corner in 2017. Paul Molitor has a pretty realistic opportunity to bounce back greatly in the wins column, but it's only going to happen if he can get productive outings from his starters.

While the Twins haven't had a true ace since the days of Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana, there are plenty of teams the operate with a good group rather than a top heavy individual. The Twins will be taking the latter path this year as they fill out their rotation, but the question becomes exactly who rounds it out.

Going into the year, I count at least 10 pitchers that Minnesota could task with starting a game. After using 11 different starters last season, I opined that the Twins would run out no more than 8 in 2017. Counting Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, and Kyle Gibson as rotation locks, the club will need to make decisions on the final two spots. That brings us to the candidates and the order of their likeliness:

Phil Hughes

In Hughes, the Twins have an odd scenario. He's absolutely a lock if he's healthy, but coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery doesn't guarantee that. Guys have bounced back differently, and he could be a shell of himself, or not pitch again at all. Hughes has faded every year since finishing 7th in the Cy Young voting during his first year with the Twins. If he does come back, hoping he lands somewhere just north of his 3.90 ERA across 2014-15 would make Minnesota ecstatic.

Trevor May

I'm much more skeptical than some on whether or not May finds success as a starter. Working as a reliever, he saw a nice spike in both his velocity and strikeout rates. Unfortunately, his back flared up and is likely tied to usage concerns. He hasn't consistently started since his debut season in 2014, and the results weren't good. Now more developed as a professional, the Twins will have to hope he can give them the strikeouts, with better command, and stay healthy.

Jose Berrios

After doing himself few favors last season, Berrios is going to be in a scenario in which he has to earn his spot during Spring Training. If Hughes isn't ready from the get go, I'd bet Berrios is the next man up. Command was the issue during Jose's rookie season, and his flat plane fastball got hit over the fence far too often (12 HR in 58.1 IP). The Twins will need to rely upon the year providing valuable experience, and the dominating stuff from Triple-A playing up a bit more at the highest level.

Adalberto Mejia

Acquired in exchange for Eduardo Nunez last season, Mejia was a nice get for the Twins system. He doesn't have flashy stuff, but should be capable of a back end spot in the rotation. In four starts for Triple-A Rochester, he totaled a 3.76 ERA to go with an 8.5 K/9. At the big league level he surrendered two earned runs across just 2.1 IP as a reliever. Mejia should get a serious look in Spring Training, and he's maybe the safer option if Minnesota wants to make absolutely sure that Berrios is ready.

Stephen Gonsalves

Now we get to the bit of the stretch portion for Opening Day rotation options. Gonsalves is the Twins top pitching prospect by most accounts, and he should be expected to be a solid contributor. However, he's yet to pitch above Double-A. While Gonsalves owned a 2.06 ERA last year, his 10.0 K/9 was watered down a bit by a 3.7 BB/9. He has some command issues to work through, and will need to rely on pitching at the higher levels as opposed to just throwing. I'd expect him to make his MLB debut this season, but not out of the gate.

Tyler Duffey

After starting 36 games for the Twins over his first two big league seasons, it's time Duffey heads to the bullpen. A college closer at Rice, Minnesota went the most sensible route in attempting to convert him to a starter first. Now 26 and without a dominant trio of offerings, he can be a very good two pitch reliever. His curveball is filthy when it's on, and he'll be more than capable of getting big leaguers out. Send him to the pen, decrease the homers (25 in 25 starts during 2016) and enjoy the uptick in velocity and strikeouts.

Justin Haley

Included here because Haley has worked as a starter for the entirety of his minor league career, and likely is slotted there in the Twins future, he should only see pen time this season. Haley did pitch at Triple-A during 2016 and fared well posting a 3.59 ERA. He has been categorized as among the safest Rule 5 picks, and many have said he's major league ready to back-end a rotation. Given what's ahead of him though, I'd welcome his opportunities in 2017 to come in a long relief role.

Salvaging The Worst Of The Twins

Through 82 games, the Twins are on pace to blitz by a franchise worst amount of losses, and finish the season as the worst team in history. Suggesting the first half of the season has been anything but a disaster would be putting it nicely. That all being said, there's plenty left to play for in 2016.

Considering that the bulk of Minnesota's schedule to close out the year comes against AL Central foes, Paul Molitor's club will see a lot of their divisional rivals and can begin to prepare for the year ahead. While it's going to be important to try and slow the pace of the losing, it's equally as important to set up for success in the year ahead.

Looking at how the Twins have positioned themselves, what will be available on the market, and where the roster stands, many of the answers for the future are going to need to come from within. Starting to figure those out sooner rather than later remains in the best interests of the club.

If you're going to place a heightened focus on certain places the rest of the way, here's exactly where I'd point you:

1. Jose Berrios

First and foremost, Jose Berrios needs to get back up to the big leagues and settle in. Across his last four Triple-A starts he's owned a 0.60 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to bat just .104/.171/.156 against him. He's allowed just one home run in his last 30 innings and he's walked batters at just a 2.1 BB/9 rate over that time.

There's no denying he scuffled in his big league debut. As Keith Law of ESPN warned, command and a flat fastball were his biggest deterrents. He'll need to keep the ball in the yard, and he can't issue so many free passes. What remains a constant though is that the Twins need Berrios more than he needs to be here. Minnesota doesn't have an ace, and hasn't for a while. The rotation is full of mediocre options performing below their typical high water marks. Berrios may not be among the best pitchers in the major leagues, but he needs to settle in the rest of the way and be viewed as the Twins go to starter to open 2017.

2. Who is your number two?

If Jose Berrios can finish the year in the big leagues, and do it while pitching well, you have to find out what you have behind him. Right now, the Twins need to be looking everywhere to see if they can move Ricky Nolasco or Ervin Santana. The latter seems like he'll have suitors, while the former's market remains up in the air.

Tommy Milone may not be offered arbitration again, and that leaves just Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes. Gibson was expected to take a step forward this season, but despite not being healthy, has struggled to do so. He turned in a nice effort last time out, but owns a 4.82 ERA through 9 starts and has walked a career worst 3.4 per nine. Hughes is facing an uphill battle in coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery, and there'll be plenty of question marks there. Someone needs to pitch behind Berrios, and it can't be a group of mediocrity. Minnesota will need a legitimate one-two-punch, but who makes it up is yet to be seen.

3. Is there an actual closer?

As of right now, the Twins should be operating under the belief that the days of Glen Perkins closing baseball games for them is done. His velocity has declined severely, and he'll now be entering 2017 after a shoulder surgery that required his labrum be reattached to his bone. He has a 3.51 ERA over the past two years and has saved 32 games. Without a stellar pre-All Star 2015 bolstering those numbers though, things are much worse.

Brandon Kintzler is currently operating as the Twins closer, but like Kevin Jepsen before him, that's a role he's not really cast for. Paul Molitor needs to see if Trevor May or Ryan Pressly could be a better option for the here and now. Nick Burdi hasn't pitched hardly at all in 2016 due to injury concerns of his own, and the Twins have given a whopping two outs of major league work to J.T. Chargois. Those are the names I'd start with for closers in 2017, you can't go into the year with a question mark at the back end of a mediocre pen.

4. Settle the log jams

Really, the only areas that the Twins need to be concerned in regards to players piling up are at second and third base. Both Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco should be at the major league level, but there's currently only room for one. Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano play the same position, and when both are healthy, that's been an area of concern as well.

It's pretty obvious that the Twins should've traded Plouffe some time ago. His value has probably never been lower than it is now, and a move at this point would be beneficial if only for opening up the roster spot. In regards to Dozier and Polanco, the return for the Twins All Star second basemen should be hefty. Despite entering his 30's, Dozier is a late bloomer and has been one of the most offensively productive two-baggers in the big leagues. I'm really good with trading either, but the return has to be right for both. At the end of 2016 however, only two of these four should realistically be options going forward for Minnesota.

5. Allow Buxton to struggle

I was really happy to see the Twins make the right move in their latest roster shuffles by adding guys back without sending Byron Buxton out. Sure, he's scuffled at the plate, but his defense is already Gold Glove caliber. He's shown the club he can rake at Triple-A, and there's nothing new he's going to learn by heading back there.

Run Buxton out nearly every day and let him struggle through it. He's got a good head on his shoulders, and confidence doesn't appear to be an issue he struggles with. He's hit a better (but still not good) .222/.248/.374 since rejoining the Twins, and his 37% strikeout rate is a far cry from the 53% output he had prior to his demotion. There's going to be a lot more lumps for Buxton to take the rest of the way, but if he can figure things out and take them now, it sets him up to hit the ground running in 2017. Minnesota needs to let that process play out.

When you have played as bad as the Twins have, there's not many positives to draw from the first half of what has been an unfortunate year. That being said, the rest of the way invites an opportunity to position things for a better start in 2017, as opposed to packing it in and slogging through the rest of the schedule. If Minnesota can get a few things to click down the stretch, the team they have a year from now will be significantly better for it.

In Trading Santana, Twins Can Start Over

As the Minnesota Twins continue their run through the 2016 Major League Baseball season, it's more than apparent to label them as sellers when the July 31st trade deadline rolls around. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor will have to decide who sticks going forward, but no one not named Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton should be considered off limits on the 25 man roster. It sounds like the piece that may draw the most interest could be starting pitcher Ervin Santana.

Recently, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that an American League assistant GM told him that Santana is seen as "perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market." It's interesting that this information comes from Cafardo. Not because he's been unreliable in the past, but instead, Cafardo's assigned Red Sox could definitely use some starting help. With that reality in play, it's fair to assume he may be pretty clued in to the starting market.

So, if the Twins are actually going to grab some offers for Ervin Santana, what can we actually expect? Right now, Santana is in just the second year of a four-year deal paying him $55 million. At 33 years old, he's not merely a rental, and a contending team could do considerably worse. In his time with the Twins, Santana has started 31 games and posted a 4.27 ERA. It's almost identically in line with his 4.29 FIP and inflated due to a 1.357 WHIP. His 6.6 K/9 isn't going to light the world on fire, but his 2.9 BB/9 has been more than acceptable. A middle of the rotation starter, you'll get what you expect with Santana.

Having pitched in both the American and National (briefly) Leagues, Santana's stuff should play just fine no matter where he ends up. His fastball velocity has remained consistent the past two seasons with Minnesota, if not even slightly experiencing an increase. Looking back through his career at his contact and chase rates, he's been virtually the same pitcher for the duration of his 12 big league seasons.

In return for a pitcher like Santana, the Twins probably should do better than a throwaway prospect. Again, he's not a rental, and a veteran with his pedigree should truly be able to help a contending team down the stretch. He's not going to bring back a massive haul, but if he emerges as one of the better options on the market, Minnesota should have a few returns to choose from.

Arguably the best thing trading Santana allows the Twins to do is start over, and aim higher. Terry Ryan has made a habit (and it's a bad one) of going after middling options in free agency. It's time that someone new step in, and deviate from that strategy. In moving on from Santana, the Twins shed some significant salary requirements, and immediately open up a spot in the starting rotation.

Ideally, it's Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco that the Twins are able to move on from first, but that isn't a realistic possibility. The level of mediocrity achieved in inking them to free agent deals (and in extending Hughes) really hamstrung the Twins immediate future. While Santana is a middling option, he's still head and shoulders above the bet that was the two aforementioned names. Trading Santana though allows the process to start.

Once Santana is out of the picture, the Twins have an immediate opening in the starting rotation to be claimed by Jose Berrios. It allows him to settle in through 2016 and lay claim to a 2017 Opening Day spot. From there, you'd like to see Minnesota parlay Hughes and Nolasco into a one contract, top of the rotation starter. The caveat is that neither come off the books a season from now (Nolasco 2017, Hughes 2019). Looking at the landscape of what's available however, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

The starting pitching market in 2017 was Stephen Strasburg and everyone else. Now inked to a long term deal by the Nationals, the Twins need to be saved from themselves by overspending and overreaching yet again. In keeping Hughes and Nolasco for another year, the 2017 club could have another hot name at deadline time. While there isn't a ton of ideal options in 2018 either, Minnesota could chose to commit the $100+ million they have tied up in Hughes and Nolasco to one top tier option.

What the Twins do in the future remains a pretty significant mystery. Half of the equation is whether or not Terry Ryan gets to orchestrate what happens going forward (and the hope would be that he doesn't). What they can't do though is continue to operated along the same lines as they did to get to the place they are now. Ryan has committed over $150 million to three pitchers who all are no more than a middle-rotation starter on a playoff club.

Santana's time appears to be done, and with it should go the mindset that brought him in.

Stacking Up The 2016 Twins With Phil Mackey

After a season in which the Minnesota Twins surprised many around baseball, 2016 presents a whole new opportunity for Paul Molitor and his squad. Now no longer toting the weight of multiple 90 loss seasons, Minnesota looks to expand upon its near playoff performance from a season ago. I have contended often that in 2016, the Twins remain the AL Central team most capable of finishing first just as well as last in the division.

Despite having talked about plenty of narratives this offseason here at Off The Baggy, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Twin Cities baseball mind Phil Mackey. He can be heard weekday mornings on 1500 ESPN Radio doing the Mackey and Judd show. While the topics on their show range across all Minnesota sports, Mackey's wheelhouse in no doubt on the diamond, and he's one of the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the Twins.

Set up in a question and answer format, Phil fielded a handful of thoughts on the 2016 Minnesota Twins, and offered his perspectives and outcomes for each. Take a look:

Off The Baggy: A season ago the Twins were one of baseball's surprise teams. Needing to push the needle further this season, what is the key factor that makes that happen?

Phil Mackey: They need two things, in general: A better bullpen and more top-end talent on the roster. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and J.O. Berrios could solve the “top-end talent” part of the equation. The bullpen remains to be seen. I love Glen Perkins, and he’s been an awesome contributor to our radio show every week, but can he stay healthy in August and September? Can Kevin Jepsen repeat his performance from last year? I feel pretty good about Jepsen-May-Perkins, if healthy, but the Twins will need guys to really step up and lock down innings 5-7.

OTB: After going into 2015 with a bullpen that should have caused worry, do you feel the same about the 2016 situation or see it as improved?

PM: I think I just answered this question in the previous question, which fits in line with my overachieving personality… The most important thing is for Twins relievers to miss more bats. If I recall, the Twins’ bullpen has allowed more contact that just about any ‘pen in the league over the past couple seasons, which isn’t ideal when we’re talking about holding leads and preventing baserunners from scoring.

OTB: It was pretty apparent Danny Santana seemed ripe for regression last season. What player seems like the most likely to regress in 2016 and why?

PM: Eddie Rosario seems like the obvious answer here, just considering the enormous gap between his strikeout and walk rates… but I’m going to go with Kevin Jepsen. Last year was a career season for him, and I highly doubt that he’ll be able to repeat it. Sort of like Devan Dubnyk with the Wild. Not repeatable. But we’ll see.

OTB: I know you're a big sabermetrics guy. Give me the over/under on some numbers for Eddie Rosario in 2016: 14.0% Swinging Strike, 8 Defensive Runs, Saved 2.0 fWAR

PM: Under on the swinging strike rate… Over on the DRS… Over on the WAR. I think the demise of Eddie Rosario is vastly overstated. He’s a sharp dude with great instincts (do you like those scouting terms in the middle of your saber question?), and I think he’ll find ways to adjust and adapt.

Of course, I just jinxed him. And now he’ll be terrible.

OTB: There should be no shortage of power in the Twins lineup this season, and the club should have a realistic shot at the 200 plateau. Who hits the most longballs for the Twins, and how many does Byung Ho Park tally?

PM: If Miguel Sano stays healthy, he’ll lead the team with 30-something. I’ll say 36. With Byung Ho, I honestly have no idea. Nothing would surprise me. If he plays every day, and if you set the over/under at 19.5, I’d probably take the over. But it’s possible morph into more of a platoon bat (with Arcia potentially on the roster), which could reduce his total. Byung Ho has plenty of pop, but can he adjust to MLB location and secondary pitches?

Which leads me to a mini-rant… Everyone is so fixated on whether Byung Ho can hit “a major league fastball.” That’s not the issue. I don’t care if every pitch is 100 mph – every professional hitter will square it up if he KNOWS it’s coming. Where MLB pitchers differ most from guys in the KBO, the minors and other inferior organizations is A.) location and B.) command of secondary pitches.

/rant

OTB: Out of options, and seemingly running out of time, what are your thoughts on Oswaldo Arcia? Is he another potential David Ortiz, or a roster casualty that you're ok losing on waivers?

PM: I think it would be a huge mistake to let him walk for nothing. Oswaldo Arcia will hit 20 or 30 home runs for somebody in 2016 if given enough plate appearances. Not to mention, he already has a track record of destroying right-handed pitching. He’s David Ortiz Light. Or Diet David Ortiz.

OTB: In the rotation, the Twins top three pitchers all have a strong chance to be pretty good this season. Which of the following do you see as the most realistic outcome? Hughes has a bounce back year, Santana pitches like he finished 2015, or Kyle Gibson emerges as the Minnesota ace?

PM: In order of how likely…

1.) Hughes bounces back

2.) Santana pitches like he did in second half

3.) Gibson emerges as the ace

In fact, the Twins’ rotation actually has a lot more upside than people are giving credit. Santana and Hughes have both been able to anchor rotations for long stretches in recent years (when they’re ON), and Berrios could fit that bill too. Now, will ALL of them be lights-out at the same time? Unlikely. But there’s upside.

OTB: Wrapping up the conversation, the Twins should have three realistic rookie of the year candidates. Who do you see making the strongest push between Park, Buxton, and Berrios?

PM: Byron Buxton has the best shot. He’ll start at a premium position and will play every day, immediately. And he doesn’t need to be great at the plate to make a huge impact. If he plays top-notch defense, steals bases and does marginal damage at the plate, he’ll be in the mix. I think his worst-case projection is B.J. Upton.

There you have it, Phil might have started to agree with me on Rosario, but I really like the suggestion of Jepsen being a name to cause some pause. I think the Twins bullpen has the chance to be better than we saw a season ago, although I'm not sure strikeouts will improve a vast amount. Regardless of where the numbers fall across different positional groups on this roster, there's no arguing that the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins has the most intrigue of any team in recent memory.