Projecting the Postseason Winners

 

After winning two straight AL Central Division titles, the Minnesota Twins flopped and failed a three-peat before things got off the ground. They’ll watch this Postseason from home, but there’s still plenty of exciting talent worth tuning into.

Running from the Wild Card round through the World Series, here’s who I’ve got and why:

AL Wild Card

Yankees over Red Sox

In a one game, winner take all, I don’t think you can bet against Gerrit Cole, and the lineup New York currently has clicking. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have carried this team for weeks. The club nearly gave it away on the final day, but I think they beat their biggest rival at home. Boston owned a 10-9 record with a +1 run differential over the Yankees this season. New York will attempt to even that out.

AL Division Series

Rays over Yankees

There’s no denying that New York has the better ace, but Tampa has owned this matchup all year. While New York is just 8-11 against the Rays in 2021, they have a -48 run differential. The Yankees do have some veteran leadership on their side, but I don’t know that Corey Kluber is a guy I want to hang my Postseason hopes on. The lineup is peaking, but it may have come a bit too soon. I think a very big X-factor here for Tampa Bay could be the usage of highly-touted prospect Shane Baz.

Astros over White Sox

A very small sample, sure, but Chicago was just 2-5 with a -12 run differential against Houston this season. Although the White Sox may have the better rotation, I’m not sure it’s that much of a discrepancy. Houston has largely flown under the radar this season, and the entire lineup is full of star power. Alex Bregman on a big stage always is must-see television.

AL Championship Series

Astros over Rays

These two clubs played each other just six times in 2021, and they nearly split the action with just three runs separating the contests. Both forward-thinking approaches to the game, this should be a fun series. Tampa Bay is looking for a return trip to the World Series, but Houston gets an opportunity to distance themselves from the cheating scandal.

NL Wild Card

Dodgers over Cardinals

Welcome to a year in which a team that won 106 games is playing in a one-game, winner-take-all, affair. The Dodgers have any number of arms to piece this one together, and their lineup should be expected to cause fits for whoever St. Louis puts on the bump. It’s a tough spot, but this is where’d you’d like to believe the best team shines.

NL Division Series

Dodgers over Giants

San Francisco has been the best story of the season in my mind. A team expected to do so little comes out and wins 107 games. These two clubs nearly split their 19 contests and Los Angeles held a +2 run differential. It’s a lot tighter of a matchup than it may seem, but I think this is a spot where the higher tiered talent rises to the occasion. Clayton Kershaw being out hurts Los Angeles, but if there’s an organization with starting arms to make up for it, they are it.

Braves over Brewers

Initially I wanted to ride with Milwaukee’s pitchers, but Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff can’t do it all. Behind them is a rotation leaving plenty to be desired, and the lineup is more name than it is substance. Atlanta will have to prove that they’re more than an 88-win team coming out of a very mediocre decision, but Freddie Freeman can carry this club. Atlanta seems like a strong flier team, and one worth taking a shot on.

NL Championship Series

Dodgers over Braves

If Los Angeles can get past the test that is their first two rounds, they should be looking at a trip to the World Series. Regardless of who comes out of the bottom half of the National League bracket, they should be facing an uphill battle. This is where Atlanta wears down and the Dodgers go back to seek a second-straight World Series.

World Series

The National League has won each of the past two World Series. No team has won back-to-back World Series since the New York Yankees ended their last three-peat in 2000. Houston and Los Angeles faced off during the 2017 World Series, which the Astros won over Dave Roberts. Dusty Baker is at the helm in Houston now and is looking for just the second pennant of his career, and first ring. Again, Houston’s ability has been overlooked much of the season and I think we see a replicated result from 2017. Your 2021 Major League Baseball Champions are the Houston Astros.

Astros over Dodgers

Where Is MLB’s Planned Taxi Squad?

This morning Major League Baseball was hit with another blow. The St. Louis Cardinals had two players test positive for COVID-19 with an immediate fallout of postponement of action against the Milwaukee Brewers. We’re playing through a pandemic here however, so what really was the plan?

When Rob Manfred and the owners finally came to agreement on economics it appeared, they also had sorted out safety protocols. What it seems they didn’t have ironed out was the logistics surrounding continuation of play. It’s one thing to suggest that a season be decided on winning percentage if not all teams get 60 games in. That can’t happen if some only play 30 or 40 games.

These teams are tested every other day, or potentially daily in some instances. Rapid tests are taken at will, and in the case of the Nationals Juan Soto, relatively indicative of what the saliva tests may show. What has to be determined, and seems like it remains up in the air, is what constitutes an outbreak and what doesn’t.

Last week the Miami Marlins decided via group text to play through a game despite four players testing positive. They allowed the virus to run rampant within their clubhouse and now have over 60% of their 30-man active roster dealing with positive results. Something like that isn’t going to be overcome by a 3-man taxi squad, and very clearly isn’t as easy as calling on players from the alternate site either.

On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals had just two players test positive following their departure from Minnesota on Wednesday night. To postpone action against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday seems to negate the planning MLB put in place. The 3-man taxi squad was not designed to account for injury, that’s why there’s an additional 30 players at the alternate site. What the taxi squad was talked about doing was providing an immediate replacement should someone need to go on the COVID-related IL.

Each team has up to three players traveling with them to all away games. If they aren’t going to be immediately substituted onto the active roster when a positive tests appears, then there’s little reason for them to be subjected to travel and increase virus contraction at all.

Since the beginning Major League Baseball’s goal has been to play an unprecedented season amidst a global pandemic. That’s going up against some significantly substantial odds, but if you’re going to operate like that there has to be a level of “next man up.” Postponing each game in which a test or two come back positive on any given day will certainly fail to give this season a chance.

Maybe this was always going to be the probable outcome. We still don’t have this under control across the country, so the feasibility of baseball being doable remained a longshot anyways. However, as unfortunate, and competitively unjust as it is, the show must go on. Either Rob Manfred has to decide that taxi squads have a purpose to fill in rosters (and maybe even expand that group), or even a limited number of positives will bring the sport to its knees.

It has been a tenuous start to this whole thing, and there won’t be much more opportunity to get it right. Step back and get it together now, or we’ll continue to go through the motions on something that fizzles out shortly anyways.

Who’s Winning the World Series?

Taking a view at the Major League Baseball Postseason there’s an incredible number of great storylines to follow. You have the lowest payroll in baseball making the field, a major league record setting home run lineup, and a handful of expected participants. For the next month we’ll be treated to the culmination of a 162-game schedule used to produce only the best of the best.

Looking back at how I saw things entering the year, I didn’t do too horribly. Looks like I’ll nail a couple of award winners, and four of the six division champs. From there things went downhill, but this is our chance to get it right in October. Let’s get into it.

Wild Card Round:

Rays over Athletics

Nationals over Brewers

We’ve got two intriguing matchups for a one-game situation here. In the American League Tampa Bay is probably the most welcoming team of needing to win a single game. They’ve pieced together nine inning affairs all season long and they still have frontline pitching in the rotation to come out firing. I like the Oakland lineup a good deal more than what Tampa brings to the table but believe that this game will be won on the bump.

In the National League we get two teams that got hot down the stretch. Milwaukee is without their MVP, and the pitching is a definite question mark there, but they’ve had some key contributors step up in big ways. I liked the Nationals as a World Series team before the season started, and I still wouldn’t be shocked if they made a run. Their rotation rivals that of the Houston Astros at the top, and the lineup is filled with guys that can burn you. There’s zero denying the bullpen is a complete mess, but if they could provide some room for the starting arms, they’ll ride them hard.

Divisional Round:

Twins over Yankees

Astros over Rays

Braves over Cardinals

Dodgers over Nationals

Arguably the greatest narrative going into the Postseason is the history Minnesota brings with it. They haven’t won a game in October since 2004, and they’ve been dominated by the New York Yankees. One thing about that rings certain though, it’s history and you can bet no one in that clubhouse gives a damn. The pitching matchups, rotation and bullpen, are relatively even. So, to are lineups that went one-two in home run production this season. James Paxton being a lefty against the powerful righty Twins lineup will set the stage in game one. If the Twins steal one in New York, and they’ve been great on the road, this series will get interesting quick.

I don’t think you can make much argument against Houston being the best team in baseball. They have the rotation, bullpen, and lineup to compete with anyone. Charlie Morton will do his best against his former team, but I’m not sure that Tampa has the lineup to hang with the Astros over the course of a five-game series. The pitching matchups with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow contributing are going to be great, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this be a bit of a test for A.J. Hinch’s club.

If there’s a team that could surprise in the National League, I think it’s the Braves. They’re filled with youth that’s contributing in big ways, and their lineup is as potent as anyone. Josh Donaldson has re-emerged as a star, and his presence with Freddie Freeman should provide plenty of veteran leadership for Brian Snitker’s club. St. Louis performed admirably down the stretch to put themselves in this position, but I’m not sure they were tested in the NL Central. They’ll take a game or two, but just don’t see enough here for any real noise.

I’d still love to put the Nationals in a position to make the World Series, and while Los Angeles has some bullpen woes of their own, I just don’t trust Washington enough behind their three horses. Juan Soto is going to be fun on a big stage, but the Dodgers are littered with talent and they’ll pull the right strings to advance. Dave Roberts has been here plenty, and wanting to get over the hump, this is probably his best opportunity.

Championship Round:

Astros over Twins

Dodgers over Braves

There’s a significant amount of parallels between Houston and Minnesota. Similarly constructed organizations at this point, the Twins are still looking at the Astros in a light of what they aspire to be. In a seven-game series when Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke can all take the ball twice if need be, Rocco Baldelli’s piecemeal rotation is going to be up against it. Minnesota is going to need to blast their way to victories at the hitter friendly Minute Maid, but they’ll be doing it against arms that have no intention of giving up runs. It will be fun to see the Twins garner this experience, and while nothing is certain next year, there’s a good deal of returning youth that can use it as fuel to a fire propelling them to take the next step.

A toss up goes to the favorite here. If the Dodgers pen is going to be exposed before the World Series, this is the lineup capable of doing it. Atlanta is the real deal offensively, and while they’ll face Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, there’s no one they’re going to be afraid of. Cody Bellinger could have wrapped up an MVP when the regular season concluded, and though he slowed down some in stretches this year, elevating when the lights are brightest wouldn’t be unexpected for the young star.

Two top seeds matching up together, the two best teams in baseball for much of the year, let me have it.

World Series:

Astros over Dodgers

Just too good to get knocked off, and too hungry to be denied, Houston gets back to the top of the baseball world. Houston didn’t revamp their whole way of operating and develop this much talent to win one title. After falling short in 2018, they’ll get their second ring in three years. Alex Bregman looks like an MVP candidate, Yordan Alvarez is the unquestioned AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s a host of veterans that make this the most dangerous organization in the sport. I don’t expect a veteran club like the Dodgers to put up anything short of a difficult test, but Houston would need to get in their own way to come up empty handed here.