Projecting the Twins 30-Man Opening Day Roster 2.0

We’ve made it, we have finally made it. The long-running national nightmare seems to be nearly over. On Friday night we will have a Twins baseball game that counts. Back in late June I projected the 30-man Opening Day roster for Minnesota. A few changes have been made and it’s time for an update.

While Summer Camp has been relatively uneventful for the Twins, there have been a few key developments. Thankfully, Byron Buxton’s injury scare doesn’t seem like it will hold him back. Luis Arraez also tweaked his knee but when then immediately all systems go. Miguel Sano got a late start due to COVID-19 tests despite being asymptomatic, but he’s been back for a few days now as well.

Only Nick Gordon and Willians Astudillo remain on the COVID related Injured List for the Twins. The former was never likely to make the Opening Day roster, while the latter definitely opens up a spot for Rocco Baldelli. Having just requested his release, rotation candidate Jhoulys Chacin also generates an opportunity for someone.

Let’s get into who should be expected to make the club:

Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Alex Avila

No surprises here. Astudillo is still looking to generate two negative COVID-19 tests which makes him ineligible to participate. With a catcher being available every night on the three-man taxi squad, carrying two to open the year is just fine.

Infield (6): Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson, Ehire Adrianza, Travis Blankenhorn

If there’s a guy that benefits from Astudillo’s absence, it’s probably Travis Blankenhorn. I loved what he could’ve provided during regular Spring Training, and think his skillset translates perfectly to a year needing depth. He can play second and third base while also having some outfield flexibility. The bat has pop and while he’s not a top tier prospect, there’s plenty of talent to contribute at the big-league level.

Outfield (6): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez, LaMonte Wade Jr.

This group adds one to it in the form of LaMonte Wade Jr. He’s had a strong Summer Camp and is showing that he’s more than just an on-base machine. Minnesota doesn’t have a true replacement in centerfield outside of Max Kepler, but both Cave and Wade should rotate in on the corners prior to any activation of the top prospects.

Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz

As has always been the case, this one is as easy as it gets. Minnesota’s leader is ready to go following a very strong Summer Camp

Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey

No changes here from the original group, but Jake Odorizzi slides back at least a spot in the rotation due to back stiffness. He’s going to have his last Summer Camp appearance shifted, and he’ll likely be moved off the Saturday game in Chicago.

Bullpen (10): Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Zack Littell, Tyler Clippard, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer

This group decreased by one with me no longer including Lewis Thorpe. I think the goal would be to have him throwing regular pens and staying stretched out at the alternate site in St. Paul. He was the first rotation option jettisoned during original Spring Training, and both Dobnak and Smeltzer are ahead of him still. Would have been nice to include Chacin as depth, but he’s miscast as a long reliever anyways.

There you have it, your 2020 Minnesota Twins

The Impact of a Year Off for Certain Twins

We’re pushing towards what should have been Major League Baseball’s Opening Day. Despite the amount of waiting through the winter, COVID-19 has served up other plans and we won’t hit the mark. In what could be a lost season, what impact is there on certain Twins players?

Having casually watched some of the news and hearing this situation equated to one of wartime, I gravitated to players who previously missed big league time by serving in the military. Obviously, we haven’t had a war necessitating that level of commitment for some time, but the list of names is impact. Everyone from Jackie Robinson to Warren Spahn served the country through different branches of the military. Some players were in the peak of their careers, while others were on the fringes. There’s no denying the time off has an impact, but to what extent?

For a guy like Jose Berrios, a lost year couldn’t come at a worse time. While a shortened season may actually benefit him from a stamina and longevity perspective down the stretch, missing out on his age 26 season just a couple of years shy of free agency is suboptimal. He had put in work to retool his process this offseason, and the final hurdle remaining in between him and Cy Young candidacy was a goal to be cleared. There’s lots of good baseball left in that arm, but 2020 was set to be a pretty big turning point.

We know through multiple occurrences that Father Time is undefeated. Obviously, there were no signs of Nelson Cruz slowing down in 2019 after posting career highs across the board, but he’s quickly approaching 40 and without a contract in 2021. There’s been reports that the Twins would like to extend him if there’s desire to continue playing, but all that raises the bar of uncertainty as age trends upwards. Cruz benefits from focusing on solely one aspect of the game, but I’d hate to see ability leave him sooner with strong production still on the table.

On the flip side, there’s probably not a better scenario for guys on the edges of positional battles. Players like Randy Dobnak and Willians Astudillo have waited in the wings for most of their careers. Dobnak is fighting for a final rotation spot, but eventually will see competition from both Michael Pineda and Rich Hill. Astudillo isn’t a great fit anywhere but is adequate almost everywhere. He’s a utility guy that Minnesota currently has an abundance of, but after some departures, he’d be pushing towards the front of the line.

There’s probably no way you can slice it that a lost season is good for any healthy player. A guy like Chris Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery at this juncture becomes about as lucky as you can be given those circumstances, but that’s where the good news ends. We’re losing a year of peak performance for a handful of guys, and regardless if they can reset the health toll on their bodies, so many more questions than answers will remain.

At the end of the day this is all uncharted territory. Sports have stood still like never before, and we’re truly in a period where the level of uncertainty is at an all time high. Getting back to normalcy, on the diamond and elsewhere is the chief goal, but it remains to be seen when we’ll embark on that reality.

A Tortoise or the Rake? Minnesota’s Final Player

My last Opening Day roster projection (version 2.0) was put out on February 10^th. Not much has changed since then, and I feel good about what I came up with. The end of the position players come down to a two-way battle in my mind, and that would be between The Turtle and Rake Cave.

After jumping into relevance during 2018, Astudillo came back to earth a year ago. Cave was acquired in exchange for Luis Gil and has served in an adequate fourth outfielder role since. Now entering 2020 with one of the best rosters in baseball, it will be about production and function when considering who will grab that coveted 26^th roster spot.

Let’s get to the tale of the tape.

What Does Willians Do Well?

When considering the functionality of Astudillo, you’d be hard pressed not to immediately notice his flexibility. No, not in terms of limberness, but in the sense of positional opportunity. Over the past two seasons he has played six different positions each year and calling him a primary anything may be a stretch.

On top of being able to move him all over the diamond, there’s his ability to put the round bat on the round ball. He’s got 301 major league plate appearances and has struck out just 11 times. That 4% strikeout rate is in line with the 3% mark he set in the minors over 2,500 plate appearances as well. In a league dominated by power, commanding the zone to that extent is a feat in and of itself.

What Doesn’t Willians Do Well?

This is where strengths also become weaknesses for the artist famously known as La Tortuga. Rocco Baldelli is afforded the ability to play Astudillo all over the diamond, but defensive metrics suggest it’s not an opportunity he should be excited about. He’s a below average catcher, small target at first base, poor at third, and substantially stretched in the outfield. He’s a utility player in that he “can,” but the utility is lost in thinking whether he “should.”

Also, about that strikeout rate. Last season Astudillo’s swing tendencies were exploited to the tune of a dismal .678 OPS. He still didn’t strike out at all, but because he doesn’t take walks either, he’ll never be a strong OBP guy. He has a very good ability to hit the ball, but a poor ability to discern what pitches he should be attacking. A 40% ground ball rate and 30% hard hit rate aren’t going to result in many positive outcomes. Aggressiveness works against him for the most part and opposing pitchers have exploited it.

What Does Cave Do Well?

Andrew Thares recently did a great job breaking down Jack Cave over at Twins Daily. His 2019 was exponentially better than starting outfielder Eddie Rosario, and he played a key role after Byron Buxton went down. Finishing with an .805 OPS in 72 games, Cave posted a .296/.377/.556 slash line over his final 50 games (39 starts 142 AB). He certainly fans plenty but doubling his walk rate to nearly 10% was a good adjustment.

In the field Cave is limited to just the grass, but he contributes in all three positions. Although he’s an average at best outfielder, it’s not as though he’s a liability. Centerfield is not the place you’d want to put him, but he’s plenty adequate on the corners. Given the volatility involved with Minnesota’s starting centerfield option, the ability to cycle players through makes a good amount of sense.

What Doesn’t Cave Do Well?

I’m not sure Cave’s greatest hinderance is that there’s something he doesn’t inherently do well on his own as much as it’s the hand he’s currently being dealt. He’s a fourth outfielder on a team that has one of the better outfields in all of baseball. Although Eddie Rosario could be replaceable, that doesn’t appear to be a blueprint that will happen internally at the moment. On top of that, acquisitions in the infield have made Marwin Gonzalez more of an outfielder (a role he has been defensively superior at) pushing Cave further down the ladder.

From a personal contribution standpoint, Cave does have some opportunity for growth in terms of contact rate. He’s just below 70%, and given the 52% hard hit rate in 2020, more bats on balls is a good thing. He owned a .358 BABIP despite just a .258 average. Sure, the counting numbers aren’t there yet but that could turn quick.

At the end of the day, I think there’s little argument to be made that Cave isn’t the better player of the two. What this could come down to is the more ideal positional fit, and right now, Astudillo has that working in his favor.

Water on La Tortuga

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time on Twitter, you know that I’m skeptical when it comes to the Minnesota Twins cult hero. Willians Astudillo made his MLB debut last season, and after a September explosion, fans around Twins Territory lost their collective minds. Both from a conceptual and statistical perspective he’s been a lightning rod player for me, and someone I’ve struggled to get on board with.

Rather than tweeting in short bursts I thought it pertinent to organize my thoughts in a single blog post with supporting facts and use this as a point of reference. Maybe some number of months from now this will be something that you can point to as a massive miss for me. If that ends up being the case, Minnesota likely benefits, so we all win in that case.

To date Astudillo has 62 games in his major league career. 29 of those games came during September 2018 in which he posted an .887 OPS. He swatted eight extra-base hits (three homers), .379 wOBA and 139 wRC+.  On top of his offensive contributions, he also played six defensive positions for Minnesota. The next 33 games came to open the 2019 season, in which he posted a .630 OPS, .267 wOBA, and a 62 wRC+.

As Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson alluded to me on Twitter, we’re dealing with two sample sizes spanning roughly 100 plate appearances. Generating definitive conclusions off either scenario is not entirely fair, but I’m attempting to tie feelings into statistical output. Without being completely dismissive of those 97 September plate appearances, they took place during the most watered-down portion of the big-league schedule. His slump or injury has been credited with the slide in 2019, but the reality is that aside from his first three games (6-for-9), he owns a .537 OPS across 110 plate appearances.

My belief is that Astudillo must entirely shift his approach at the plate in order to see sustained big-league success. Astudillo saw 2.93 P/PA this season, the lowest in baseball, with the next closest being the Angels Andrelton Simmons (3.03). It’s not that swinging early and often isn’t a viable process, it’s the way in which Astudillo uses it that’s the problem.

Minnesota’s utility man owned just a 28.8% hard hit rate this season (31.9% in 2018) and puts the ball on the ground 40% of the time. He also popped up on one-fifth of his batted balls. With as much swinging as Astudillo does, while avoiding strikeouts and walks, it’s not a surprise he has a 95% contact rate. Unfortunately, he also has chased 47% of the time (40% in 2018). The summary of his plate discipline and approach is a guy who doesn’t hit the ball hard, puts it on the ground, and isn’t fast enough to make a difference.

If there’s going to be a successful career ahead with the Twins or elsewhere, something must give for Astudillo. He’s done this swing early, avoid strikeouts, and don’t walk for the entirety of his pro career. A pop-up season in the PCL saw a strong OPS, but his minor league OPS is .759. There’s some pop in the bat, but he doesn’t work counts enough to find good pitches. Major league hurlers make him eat out of their hand, and he obliges regularly. This profile is the exact representation of why strikeouts aren’t bad and are arguably worse than any other out.

I touched on a guy who isn’t patient earlier. The Angels Simba swings often too, but he’s become a strong hitter (for average) with a hard-hit rate in the upper 30’s. The ground ball rate isn’t good (and it’s why his SLG will never be favorable), but he only chases pitches out of the zone roughly 30% of the time. Not a slugger by any means, Simmons finds a strike and attacks it while Astudillo attacks almost any pitch thrown his way.

The greatest asset Astudillo provided Minnesota in the early going this year was that he had positional flexibility. He’s able to stand almost anywhere on the diamond but grades out as roughly average at all those places. Lacking a standout defensive skill, and currently employing an approach not conducive to big league success, there’s an uphill battle ahead of him.

It’s great when players like this excite a fanbase or represent a polarizing figure in the clubhouse. What’s worth keeping in perspective, however, is that there’s still a game being played between the lines and casting aside reality, or the merits of other players is something that will only make the letdown that much more difficult. Here’s to hoping an overhaul can be made during his stint on the farm. The more contributors Rocco Baldelli has, the better.

Puddin’ Providin’ Proof at Third Base

Miguel Sano won a Dominican Winter League championship this offseason. He also showed up to Spring Training in a much more trimmed down fashion. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he suffered an unfortunate cut on his heel and has now dealt with healing complications that will shelve him until May. Prior to this development, I wasn’t sure that everyone’s favorite folk hero Willians Astudillo was going to make the 25-man roster. Now it’s all but guaranteed, and the rubber begins to hit the road.

Going into 2019 Rocco Baldelli will almost certainly employ Marwin Gonzalez as his starting third basemen. Gonzalez was acquired as a free agent after having served in a super utility role for the Houston Astros. He had a down 2018 but has previously put up gaudy offensive numbers. His most vital contribution is that he can spell players all over the diamond and should end up playing no less than five different positions for Minnesota in 2019. What that also means is he’ll need a break at the hot corner.

Enter La Tortuga.

Astudillo has set Twins Territory ablaze with her persona and ability since emerging on the scene. He joined the Twins organization, his fourth professionally, in 2018. At Triple-A Rochester he posted a .782 OPS that is just a tick above his .754 minors mark/ His calling card has been the way he attacked pitches, and his bat to ball abilities. In over 2,400 minor league plate appearances Willians has struck out just 81 times, drawing 85 walks. In fact, his 65 HBP almost surpass that paltry strikeout total. To put it mildly, it’s insane.

If you wanted to throw water on this fire, September’s production for Astudillo wasn’t going to help you. Although MLB rosters expand and the competition may decrease a bit, Willians made his MLB debut and posted an .887 OPS across 97 plate appearances for the Twins. He struck out just three times, walking twice, and notching eight extra-base hits (three homers). His swinging strike rate was just 4.7% and the 91.7% contact rating was exceptional. Across 458 hitters with at least 90 plate appearances last season, Astudillo’s swinging strike rate was 10^th best, and his contact rate stood alone at the top.

Projected for 385 plate appearances in 2019, ZiPS has Astudillo coming in with a .280/.307/.459 slash line. It’s hard to know how much run the Venezuelan will get off the bench with other utility options on the roster, but there’s going to be opportunity. What’s certain is that Astudillo has made believers of many throughout Twins Territory, and it appears he has the respect and admiration of his peers within the clubhouse as well.

Oftentimes we aren’t given the answer as to whether a September promotion is substantiated from a fringe player. In this scenario, we’re going to find out just how real the production was, and for Minnesota’s sake, how much a man nicknamed “The Turtle” can be a difference maker in the early going.