Thursday, August 6, 2015

Beyond The Bobbles: The Year That Was

Deviating somewhat from the norm a bit here at Off The Baggy, today is a non-traditional baseball piece. Another year of the biggest promotional days on the calendar, the bobbleheads, have been crossed off. With last weekend, August 1st celebrating the 1965 Twins team with the final giveaway, it's time to take a look back on the year that was.

2015 was a five game year for Twins bobblehead days. Target Field has seen as few as one per year, and as many as five, so this season ranks amongst the highest. Things got kicked off with a special promotion this time around, and it may have been one of the best organized of all time.

May 4th found the Twins gearing up to go on a nice run, and it might have been Hughes using the Force that started it all. On Star Wars night at Target Field, the Twins gave away a limited edition Hughes bobblehead draped in a Star Wars cape with lightsaber in tow. Tickets needed to be purchased specifically for the giveaway, and a special booth was set up to handle the promotion.


The bobblehead itself featured intricate detail and was well done for both Twins and Star Wars fans alike. Minnesota overcame a first inning Stephen Vogt grand slam to secure an 8-7 victory over the Athletics. Hughes also would hang on for his first win of 2015.

Bobblehead number two was ready to pay tribute to new manager Paul Molitor. Depicted in an often seen pose, leaning on the dugout railing, Mollie's bobblehead heightened the level of detail seen by the head nodder. Given away on a Friday night against the Chicago Cubs in a marquee interleague matchup, it was Molitor's doll that highlighted the season for me.


Again Phil Hughes was on the mound, and the Twins would pound Kyle Hendricks for 7 runs (6 earned) and help Hughes to secure his 5th win of the year. A bobblehead and young stars like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, what's not to like?

As the calendar flipped to July, it was again Hughes' turn to be enshrined in a ceramic state. This time donning more traditional Twins attire, Hughes was once again well represented. Deviating from the more square-shaped base, this time around Hughes was positioned throwing the ball from the rubber. It was a nice touch, but one I ultimately was not too fond of.

The game, as you might have guessed, was pitched by Hughes yet again (his third bobblehead day of the year). In similar fashion, Hughes picked up yet another win, his 8th of the season. Torii Hunter homered and the Twins knocked off the divisional rival Detroit Tigers.

In giving someone else an opportunity, Hughes finally stepped aside for the July 25th bobblehead night highlighting the Twins superstar, Brian Dozier. In the midst of an MVP type season, Dozier was no doubt the most popular bobblehead of the season. Whether it was his long flowing locks, or his graceful jogging position, lines for Dozier's doll swarmed downtown minneapolis. The 10,000 were gone in relative minutes, and it also was the second most coveted giveaway on the resale market (behind only Hughes's Star Wars night).

New York was in town, and they ended up playing spoiler to the Twins on Dozier's night. Minnesota's first bobblehead loss of the season, Glen Perkins served up a game tying home run to Alex Rodriguez, and then gave up the final blow, a three run bomb to John Ryan Murphy just four batters later.

When the calendar flipped to August, the Twins decided to round out the bobblehead extravaganza in style (or maybe lack thereof). In an ode to the 50th anniversary of the Twins 1965 AL Champion team, a vintage style doll was presented. Significantly less detailed, and quite frankly cheap looking, the little nodder was far from the highlight of the night.

Kurt Suzuki provided the fireworks as he singled home Eddie Rosario to score the game winning run in walkoff fashion. Despite the excitement the Flyin Hawaiian provided, the vintage bobble was in no position to match it anyways.

On the year, the Twins went 4-1 in bobblehead games, and Phil Hughes was actually 3-0 in those contests. Give me Molitor for the best bobble of the year, and the Vintage guy for the worst. Minnesota still has plenty to play for. Until then, I'll be looking for more room to keep on adding to the collection. Happy nodding folks.

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

From Puerto Rico To The Pros: The Jose Berrios Story

4,555 plate appearances, 4,072 at bats, 1,106 hits, 141 home runs, eight positions, and 11 seasons, that's what Michael Cuddyer gave to the Minnesota Twins. Most importantly though may be the number not yet listed. Following the 2011 season, Cuddyer left for Colorado, and he was deemed an A-rated free agent. When the Twins didn't bring him back, they were handed the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, and that's where this story begins.

The Draft

Coming off of a 63-99 season in 2011, and a 5th place finish in the AL Central, the Twins were handed the 2nd overall pick. Following the Houston Astros selection of Carlos Correa, the Twins took a high schooler out of Georgia named Byron Buxton. The upside was immense, Minnesota settled in for the next 39 rounds.

In the first competitive balance round though, they were awarded the first pick (32nd overall). Going the high school route again, the Twins nabbed Jose Berrios, an 18 year old from Papa Juan XXIII High School in Puerto Rico. With players like Joey Gallo and college star Stephen Piscotty still on the board, Minnesota believed Berrios was their guy. He signed for the slot amount ($1.55 million) and was on his was to the Gulf Coast League.

The Rookie Leagues

As an 18 year old, Berrios was playing with multiple players far superior to himself in age. Signing quickly, he was able to appear on the mound in the Twins system in short order. Coming out of high school, being assigned to rookie league made a lot of sense. Berrios pitched in eight games in the Gulf Coast League, making one start. He owned a 1.08 ERA and struck out batters at a 14.6 K/9.

Pitching in the Appalachian league, Berrios made three starts. He twirled 14.0 innings, for E-Town surrendering just two earned runs to the tune of a 1.29 ERA. His dominance continued as he racked up a 14.1 K/9. Despite the small sample size, it was clear the Twins prospect was pushing for a new challenge.

The Year Long Diversion

If there ends up being a point in Jose Berrios' career that he can look back and wonder where he could have improved, all indications suggest it may be in the Midwest League. After an impressive 2012, Minnesota started their young prospect with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. For what would wind up the first and only time of his career, Berrios would remain there for the whole season.

With teammates such as Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Travis Harrison, and Jorge Polanco, the Kernels had plenty of talent. Berrios made 19 starts for the Kernels in 2013. He would throw just over 103 IP (103.2 to be exact), to the tune of a 3.99 ERA while striking out 8.7 per 9 and walking 3.5 per 9. The results weren't discouraging, but no doubt were a far cry from the dominance he had shown a year earlier.

Still just going to be 20 years old the next season, Minnesota stayed the course and Berrios had his eyes set on Fort Myers for 2014.

Blitzing The System

Still somewhat flying under the radar, the Twins were set to start Berrios at High-A Fort Myers as a 20-year-old in 2014. he was gaining some steam in the national category however as he was rated the 90th best prospect by MLB.com and the 75th best by Baseball Prospectus. After his step back a year before in Iowa, this was his time to prove something, and that he did.

Back down in Florida for the first time since the Gulf Coast League, Berrios was given the challenge of tackling the Florida State League. Now significantly younger than the competition, Berrios failed to show any fear. He started 16 games for the Miracle putting up a 1.97 ERA, winning nine of his starts, and sitting down batters at a 10.2 K/9 clip. It took just 96.0 innings before Minnesota moved Berrios up a level to Double-A New Britain.

Now with his second team of the season, Berrios had made a significant jump in the Twins system. For the Rock Cats, the Puerto Rican started eight games. Across 40.2 IP, he owned a 3.54 ERA 6.2 K/9 and a 2.7 BB/9. No doubt the numbers slipped, but being all things considered, he was still pitching well above his expectation. Then it happened.

Needing a spot starter with playoff implications on the line, the Rochester Red Wings called upon Berrios. He had now pitched across three different minor league levels in just one season. His Triple-A debut wasn't pretty (6 ER in 3.0 IP), but it only fueled his fire. Having accomplished a trip through the entire farm by the time he was 20, Berrios wanted to push the ceiling further.


Heat Of The Winter

Motivated and determined, the offseason before 2015 was a proving ground of sorts for Berrios. He had coined his own phrase, #PUSHTHEGAME, and he turned attention to God in praising him wherever he could. Workouts were publicized and accountability partners were made out of the over 5,000 followers on Twitter.

Training down in Puerto Rico, Jose Berrios was able to use the heat over the winter to his advantage. Running, lifting, and mechanics were the focus of his regimen. His body showed massive improvements, while his tenacity and drive remained as heightened as ever. It was clear that 2015 was the year Berrios wanted to put the big leagues on notice.


Coming into spring training with the desire to crack the major league rotation (despite being a non-roster invite), and setting goals high, Berrios' national attention only grew. Baseball America had named him their 36th prospect, MLB.com called him #32, and Baseball Prospectus tabbed him #48. The Twins gave Berrios six innings of Grapefruit League action, and he turned in four strikeouts and no walks, while giving up just seven hits. Shipped out to Double-A Chattanooga, Berrios made it clear he would be back.

The Sprint Back

Passed over as the Opening Day starter (that honor would go to Tyler Duffey) for Chattanooga, Berrios allowed the motivation to mount. Playing for the Twins newest affiliate, he quickly became must watch baseball. Unfortunately for Lookouts fans, it also seemed his time in Tennessee would not last long.

Starting just 15 games for the Lookouts, Berrios dominated to the tune of a 3.08 ERA and a 9.1 K/9 across 90.2 IP. Nine of his starts were of the quality variety, and Berrios also recorded a two-hit, eight strikeout, complete game against the Birmingham Barons in mid-May. Once again, moving time had approached for the Twins newest phenom.

Being called on to pitch for Triple-A Rochester for the first time since his ugly spot start a season ago, Berrios had some demons to face. Motivated and focused though, he the challenge would no doubt be assumed head on.

Success is always a bit more sweet when it comes following a fight through adversity however. Berrios would experience just that as his first two Triple-A starts of 2015 gave him a combined 7.59 ERA across just 10.2 IP. With opposing batters slashing .318/.375/.455 off of him, he knew he had to be better. Then things seemingly clicked. In Berrios' last four starts for the Red Wings, he owns a 2.00 ERA, 22/5 K/BB ratio, and has given up a paltry .200/.280/.358 slash line.

The Final Hurdle

That 18-year-old kid from Puerto Rico hasn't changed much, but then again all he has done is change. Berrios is the same uber-motivated individual that views success as the only result. His drive and passion are unparalleled, and his faith helps to carry him in all aspects of his life. While those things have all remained constant, he hasn't ever stayed in one place too long, and that appears to once again be the case.

As the Red Wings ace continues to lay waste to the International League, and September looms, all sights are set on the next level. Berrios' goal has constantly been the big leagues, and it appears he'll get that chance in 2015. You can bet he'll be surrounded by the same family and friends that have elevated him to this point, and stature aside, the Puerto Rican star will have an imposing presence.

Thus far the journey has been one electrifying stop after another, and at this point, there's no reason to believe the final hurdle won't be accompanied by more of the same. Not immediately coined the can't miss type, Berrios has paved the path and done so at lightning speed. Repertoire and drive in tow, it's now just a matter of when.

Beyond The Rubber

While his eventual debut with the Minnesota Twins is no doubt the next goal, there's more to Berrios than can be quantified on the diamond. As the odds and detractors have been lined up against them, he has risen above; as much for other reasons as for those specific to baseball. In who Berrios is, he succeeds as well.

Sure, at this point, Berrios is the pitching prospect highlighting the Minnesota Twins farm system. Don't tell him that though, as he continues to make time for others. Cedar Rapids Kernels player, and fellow Puerto Rican, Edgar Corcino, is just one of the friends Jose has worked with. Pushing their game together this offseason, both are seeing dividends (Corcino is slashing .296/.350/.416 with Cedar Rapids).

Although Corcino is already a pro, Berrios' workout partners span a much wider range. Friend Jorge Soto's son, Akxel Soto, has been working with both Jose and his trainer for the past 5 years. Now 13, the 2020 Major League Baseball draft is absolutely where the young Soto has his eyes set upon. Berrios has never balked at the opportunity to help himself or anyone that asks get better, and he's able to accomplish it all because of the position he's put himself in.

Wife (Jannieliz Marquez) and baby daughter (Valentina) at his side, Berrios has had plenty along for the ride the past two seasons. Aided throughout the season by a great group of supporters, trainer Josue Lioner especially, Jose has been granted the opportunity to be both family man and lights out pitcher. The support system has offered the ability to focus on the task at hand, and his wife and daughter have provided a well deserved retreat from the game.

Humble, mild-mannered, and reserved, Jose has done an exceptional job of fulfilling the ever-rising expectations. Letting his game speak, motivating himself, and confiding in those that have been there every step of the way, the success has simply followed suit. It is in these decisions and character traits that Berrios should continue to excel, no matter where the game of baseball takes him.

Much has been accomplished, but the ride has just begun. You can bet when he makes his appearance on the mound for the first time in the big leagues, he will do so on his terms. Toting "La Maquina" and letting The Machine drive the person that he has become.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Struggles Have Highlighted Twins Correct Deadline Decision

The calendar has flipped to August, the Minnesota Twins are now 54-51 just three games above .500, and the problems are mounting. Every indication suggests that the Twins did absolutely the right thing at the trade deadline. As they slip out of sole possession of a wild card spot, Terry Ryan has a new period of evaluation coming.

For much of the season, the Twins were a team playing well above water. With an extremely impressive home record, while staving off regression, Minnesota distanced themselves from the pack. As it generally does, baseball has begun to shift back towards a statistical normalcy and the Twins have felt the squeeze.

Since the All Star Break, Minnesota is just 5-11. In those 16 games, the Twins offense has scored an average of 3.4 runs per game while surrendering 5.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has all but imploded, most obviously on the back end (Glen Perkins owns an 11.12 ERA since the break). The Twins offense has gone in the tank, and the winning has hit the skids. In their last three losses, Minnesota has scored just one run in each contest.

To say this was predictable is probably not unfair. Minnesota has a plethora of pitchers with inflated FIP (fielding independent pitching) marks and strong ERA's (in fact, acquired reliever Kevin Jepsen is among them). They have also seen a boost in the offense from unlikely sources such as Aaron Hicks (who has been incredibly hot), Eddie Rosario (who's been consistent), and Miguel Sano (who surprisingly has hit for average). At the root of the struggles though is that the Twins have watched it all come crashing down at the same time.

Blaine Boyer (3.02 ERA 4.28 FIP, still some regression to come) and Casey Fien (4.19 ERA 4.14 FIP) have started to even out, J.R. Graham has been knocked around (9.00 ERA in his last 8.0 IP), and we already touched on Perkins struggles. Joe Mauer (.255/.317/.327), Torii Hunter (.204/.246/.370), and Brian Dozier (.217/.299/.450) have all slumped since the break. Starting pitching hasn't been great, and Tommy Milone (7.98 ERA in 142. IP since ASG) is now headed to the DL.

Terry Ryan is watching as each of the potential problem areas for the Twins rears it's head at once. In that, he can find solace in knowing he absolutely did the right thing at the trade deadline. Fixing the bullpen, offense, and need positions all at once without jumping the gun wasn't a realistic possibility. In a difficult test of patience, that is now paying dividends.

Staying put for the most part (aside from dealing for Jepsen who provides team control going forward), allows the Twins to continue along a realistic path. Despite being in position to grab a Wild Card spot, the heat of the summer was sure to sort things out. Regardless of the big moves by the Blue Jays (both David Price and Troy Tulowitzki count as just that), the Twins were going to have to continue to defy their own odds. In not sacrificing the blueprint that has been laid out, the next few years remain incredibly bright for the Twins.

As the 2015 Major League Baseball season rolls on, the Twins still have plenty to gain. Nowhere near out of the playoff race, call ups and seasoning can be provided to young and integral players in the midst of meaningful games. With Tyler Duffey paving the way and Jose Berrios likely soon to follow, Minnesota affords young arms a cup of coffee in the middle of real action. Miguel Sano, Hicks, Rosario, and even Byron Buxton can begin to settle into the highest level while competing for something on a nightly basis. In the end, it's the best outcome for everyone.

Going forward, the Twins already had plenty of reason to be realistic playoff contenders immediately in 2016 and onward. Thanks to the decision to hold onto the farm, the Twins should take plenty of valuable lessons and developmental instances away from 2015 even if they don't end up in the playoffs. As 2016 rolls around, they should enter as one of the two best teams in the Central, and the final two months of 2015 baseball will serve as the launching pad for that growth.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Does It Matter If Twins Hope Fades?

July comes to a close, the Major League Baseball trade deadline passes, and the dust settles. In the wake of it all, the Minnesota Twins are left with a slim lead in the Wild Card race, and a very small margin for error. Hope has to be waning right? But what if that hope is placed in the wrong things, and it doesn't really matter if the Twins fade?

Coming into the season the Twins weren't a realistic postseason contender, they weren't supposed to be here, and this wasn't supposed to be their time. Sure, it would be great to capitalize on a situation after four straight seasons with more than 90 losses, but at the end of the day, perspective must reign supreme. At what cost does competing now come, and does maximizing a current Wild Card spot sacrifice future years? Maybe hope is best placed elsewhere, after all, Paul Molitor's Twins have provided plenty of areas this season.

Maybe most visible of them all is the emergence and development all along. This was coming, and I've been suggesting it for well over the past year. He's put it all together this season though at a rate even I wasn't prepared for. Owning a .299/.364/.437 slash line, and hitting .365/.443/.608 in July and his five home runs are on pace for a new career high. He's been worth 2 DRS (defensive runs saved) and has a 6.1 UZR (ultimate zone rating) as the Twins centerfielder. Even when Byron Buxton shifts him to right field, the Twins have a solid asset at their disposal.

Another young guy has stepped up in a big way. Going into the season, I suggested Eddie Rosario would be the first Twins prospect called up, and that he could go on to have a Danny Santana (2014) like season. He's batting .294/.316/.462 and has caught fire of late batting .393/.393/.679 since July 10. In the field he's been worth 3 DRS and owns a 3.0 UZR as he looks poised to lock down left field for the Twins into the future.

As has been anticipated for many years, Miguel Sano made his big league debut in 2015. So far he's done everything expected of him and then some. Already with three home runs in his first 21 games, he's also hit for average batting .296/.427/.507. More impressively, he's batting .364/.500/.682 against righties, while hitting just .185/.290/.22 against lefties. In the minors this year Sano was better against lefties slashing .299/.405/.597. He's going to crush lefties at the MLB level, so the fact that he's also seeing righties well early is a great development.

Then there's a guy on the big league roster that has continued to prove it. After an impressive 2014, Brian Dozier has looked the part of an MVP candidate in 2105. The first time All Star is hitting .256/.330/.512 with 22 home runs (good for top 15 in the bigs). He's on pace for career highs in doubles, home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored. On pace to be a 5.0+ fWAR player, Dozier has emerged as the best second basemen in the league.

Outside of the 25 man roster, there has been plenty of great development as well. Jose Berrios looks the part of a big league starter right now at Triple-A Rochester. He owns a 1.35 ERA and an 8.1 K/9 across his last three starts. Stephen Gonsalves has followed in the footsteps of Berrios as a fast riser down in Fort Myers, and first round pick Nick Gordon is now getting it done with the bat. It'd be hard to overlook Max Kepler, who's .337 batting average at Double-A Chattanooga is plain silly. Throw in secondary prospects like Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, and Mat Batts, and the Twins are in a better spot than ever.

So that's maybe where the hope is, or should be. Rather than clinging to what the Twins do or don't do at the deadline, or whether they make the playoffs, or whether they fade into September, it's finally a realistic situation to look ahead.

Minnesota should go into 2016 as the clear second best team in the AL Central, trailing only the Royals. Depending on what pieces are added, and who is promoted when, Terry Ryan's organization should see the future as filled with division championships and playoff appearances once again. 2015 has been a lot of fun so far, but if playoff baseball doesn't come to fruition, there's plenty of reason for hope and excitement to thrive where it should be in the first place.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

The Twins Prospect Demanding Your Attention

As the summer draws on and the fall draws near, lots of changes shape the Major League baseball landscape. There's the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and then the August waiver period. There's divisional races, and then there' s September call ups. Despite the Twins strong start, the most exciting period of 2015 may be that call up window, and in part, because of a Twins prospect demanding your attention.

Sure, Jose Berrios is having a good year, Nick Gordon is trending up, and Byron Buxton should be back in the fold. In September though, it should be all about a 22 year old from Germany. Signed as an international free agent, Max Kepler has been playing in the Twins organization since he was 17 years old. He's been talked up almost equally as long.

Maybe not the uber-prospect that fellow international signee Miguel Sano was, Kepler has held his own. After struggling with injury issues early on in his professional career, it's really been the last two seasons that Kepler has put it together.

Spending the entirety of 2014 with High-A Fort Myers, Kepler played in a career high 102 games. In that action, he slashed .264/.333/.393 with 20 doubles, six triples, five home runs and 59 RBI. Any way you cut it, the Twins had to be pleased. As respectable as 2014 was though, it's been 2015 where Kepler has really put his stamp on the organization.

Minnesota decided to allow Kepler to get his feet wet in a few games (six to be exact) near the spring training complex in Fort Myers. Since being shipped off to Double-A Chattanooga, he has been also systems go though. Owning a .331/.414/.529 slash line on the season, it's even more impressive to see how he's hit lately. Sine June 11, Kepler has batted .381/.493/.593 while playing in 33 games and being honored with a selection for the Major League Baseball Future's Game in Cincinnati.

On the year, Kepler has substantiated his success to the tune of  92 hits, 25 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 44 runs batted in, and a near even 42/39 K/BB ratio. He's split time almost evenly playing 37 games at first base, while being positioned in the outfield 34 times (most often in right). Kepler has been sure with the glove making just two errors in 84 outfield chances as well as two errors in 317 chances at first base.

When looking through the farm system as a whole, and the Twins are well noted as having one of the best in the bigs, you'd be hard pressed to find a more intriguing offensive talent. As the production continues to toe the line of otherworldly, Kepler continues to go about his business and make it look routine.

Minnesota no doubt has it's eyes set on which prospects will be considered for a September cup of coffee, and it's hard to believe Kepler wouldn't be first in line. Already a 40 man roster inclusion, Kepler has all the makings of the ability to push for an opening day spot in 2016. If he continues the run he's currently on, holding him down is something the Twins will find themselves hard pressed to do.

As the wave of players like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios make their way to Target Field, don't make the foolish mistake of forgetting to include the German. Max Kepler appears to be the real deal and he should be getting a shot to prove it sooner rather than later.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

The Centerfielder The Twins Hoped For


The Twins are in somewhat of a downward spiral of late having won just two out of their last 10 contests. Now the owners of just a slim lead in the wild card standings, Minnesota is looking for bright spots. Luckily enough, the one I've been suggesting for well over a year, is shining brighter than ever. Aaron Hicks has stepped up and he's looking every bit what I've been suggesting he will become.


Ok so I'm a bit thrilled my belief in and backing of Hicks gas come to fruition. I put some of my thoughts in a blog post back in May (read it), and it's been maybe more well documented throughout my Twitter feed. Although the self gratification is fun, the bigger point here is how big of a development this is for not only Hicks, but the Twins as a whole.

It was pretty easily visible that Aaron Hicks was one of the best defensive options for the twins at the major league level. Having had such poor outfield defense for so long, Hicks provided range, ability, and an arm that the organization had not seen for a while. Save his few mental lapses, and he would likely be routinely mentioned amongst the best fielders in the game. It's at the plate though where Hicks has been plagued the longest.

There was a point in his career where Hicks wasn't sure switch hitting was his best plan of action. Struggling mightily against right-handed pitching, he didn't do much better on his dominant right-handed hitting side either. Owning just a .203/.273/.441 slash line in 2013 (his first big league season) as a righty, his line of .340/.400/.540 in 2015 is significantly improved. Having never hit above .215 at the big league level, his current .288 mark is incredibly impressive.

On top of getting extra base hits (Hicks has four doubles, two triples, and four home runs on the year), the biggest boost comes from his approach at the plate. A big on-base guy in the minors, Hicks hadn't flash much of that ability for the Twins. In 2015 though, he's got a career high .345 OBP and owns a 25/16 K/BB ratio.

Due to a better command of the zone, Hicks has seen drastic improvements in some different peripherals as well. Following strikeout percentages of 26.8 and 24.9 in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Hicks is being struck out just 14.1% of the time this season. He's got the lowest soft hit percentage of his career (15.6%) and has seen the biggest jump in his medium contact percentage (60.7%).

Aggressiveness has also been something that Hicks has noted working on, and that has shown as well. Swinging at more pitches, and earlier in the count, Hicks has been able to work things in his favor. He's swung at a career high 45.3% of pitches while owning a career best 82.0% contact rate. The new found confidence has also played when he's behind in the count. After getting down 0-2, Hicks owns a .296/.345/.481 line.

At the plate, Aaron Hicks has absolutely substantiated the notion I suggested many months ago. A promotion from Double-A based on a hot spring training was premature, and following a respectable time in Triple-A to end 2014 (.278/.349/.389 through 23 games), Hicks had completed a healthier path to his success.

In the field, Hicks has turned it up in 2015 as well. Having been already regarded as a good outfielder, he now owns a 3 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark this season, along with a 6.6 UZR (ultimate zone rating) and a 28.6 UZR/150. Having been a -0.6 and 0.1 fWAR player this season, Hicks is now worth 1.5 fWAR. To the Twins, he's absolutely an asset.

With Byron Buxton still being the best prospect in baseball, Hicks' run in centerfield is no doubt going to come to an end. With his arm, he profiles wonderfully to be an exceptional right-fielder as well. Until that time comes though, the Twins have the centerfielder they were hoping for, and the one I believed was flashing signs of being ready for far too long.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Recognizing Identity Is Key For The Twins

Here we are on the week of the Major League Baseball trade deadline, and the Minnesota Twins control their own destiny. Three games in front of the Toronto Blue Jays for the second and final wild card spot, the AL East competition just made their splash. In acquiring Troy Tulowitzki from the Colorado Rockies (and now David Price from the Tigers), it's apparent the Blue Jays are going for it. Despite the big move, the Twins absolutely need to disregard their competition.

Coming into this season, the home nine was expected to have an outside chance at a .500 record, with somewhere around 75 wins being more than acceptable. After stumbling out of the gates, the Twins entered the All-Star Break as the second best team in the American League. As fun as it has been, Minnesota needs to continue to stay the course.

Right now, Paul Molitor has the Twins positioned to make summer baseball relevant at Target Field again. Despite everything pointing to a third place finish in the AL Central at best, Minnesota has defied the odds. Now, the organization needs to stack their chips and continue to ride out the hot streak conservatively.

The Blue Jays are clearly gunning for the Twins and are looking to overtake the second wild card spot. The last thing Minnesota should be looking to do is hold serve however. In making a big splash or a substantial move, the organization would be denying the reality at hand. This Twins team is competing when they should not be, and while they absolutely should capitalize on their good fortune, doing so within realistic boundaries still makes sense.

There's no doubt that the Twins have problem areas. Minnesota's bullpen owns a 3.91 ERA (24th in MLB), 196 strikeouts (30th), and a .259 BAA (25th). The starting catcher, Kurt Suzuki, is slashing .229/.289/.301 while playing below average defense (-3 DRS). At shortstop, Minnesota has ran Danny Santana out for 72 games while allowing him to bat .219/.243/.300, commit 16 errors, and be worth -14 DRS. Yes, the Twins have problems.

Of those issues, the most easily fixed remain the former two (to a certain extent). The Twins can (and likely will) go get relief help before the deadline. In doing so, less innings will be afforded to arms like Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Ryan O'Rourke, and Blaine Boyer. At times they've been effective this year, but as a whole they have failed to get it done. A competent reliever will afford All-Star closer, Glen Perkins, more opportunities, and in turn more tallies in the win column. The acquisition cost of a reliable reliever should be manageable, and the Twins have plenty of options to pick from.

Looking behind the plate and at shortstop, they Twins have bigger fish to fry. Neither position offers much to call the future looking throughout the organization (even more so at catcher), and a rental would be nothing short of a Band-Aid. A.J. Pierzynski could be a fit, and he may help the Twins this season, but he too would be gone going forward.

For the Twins to truly solve their issues behind the plate and at shortstop, they will need longer term answers. Settling for a Jean Segura type or a quick fix doesn't do much for changing the Twins course, and addressing things with a bigger move coins Minnesota into more of a win now mode.

At the end of this week, and no matter what the Twins do, it's best served for the organization and their fans to remember what this team is. Right now, Molitor has his club playing playoff baseball and it's all the more exciting because of it. That's not to say there isn't some smoke and mirrors, and that the true identity of this team might be pointed a little bit lower.

Addressing a bullpen need to help fend off challengers and squeak into the playoffs would be a great move. Doing something drastic trying to solve future issues before the real window opens up a season from now, at the cost of something more damaging, is a situation that Minnesota should look to avoid. For now, it's just fine that the Twins operate in a "happy to be here" mode.