Monday, October 31, 2016

World Series Highlights Relief Perfection

Remember when the Baltimore Orioles were eliminated in the American League Wild Card game by the Toronto Blue Jays? Not only was it heartbreak, but manager Buck Showalter never used closer Zach Britton. The best reliever in the major leagues this season went unused in a game that was never guaranteed to be followed by another. It looked dumb then, and has been the highlighted scenario in the World Series.

You'll often hear of managers failing to go to their closer before the 9th inning, or saving them when on the road. Both the Chicago Cubs Joe Maddon and Cleveland Indians Terry Francona have made a mockery of traditional (and dated) bullpen usage over the course of the World Series.

Throughout the course of the five games, Andrew Miller has been Francona's go to. While not technically the Indians closer, he's easily their best relief pitcher. He's thrown 5.1 IP through the first five games and has struck out eight batters walking just two and giving up just one run. Regardless of it being early or late, Francona has given Miller the ball in the highest leverage situations. Over the course of the playoffs, he's entered as early as the 5th inning, and as late as the 8th.

On the other side of the field, Maddon got on board during game five. Needing to survive to last another game, the Cubs manager went with his rocket throwing closer Aroldis Chapman in the 7th inning. He asked the Cuban Missile to get 8 outs, and even had him bat for himself in the 8th inning. Chapman pitched arguably the most important 2.2 innings of the Cubs season, struck out four, and gave up just one hit. When Chicago needed outs the most, they went to the guy that generally racks them up in bunches.

Now, to be fair, both bullpens have had some suspect usage over the course of the Fall Classic. Francona has generally operated with the belief that both Miller and closer Cody Allen are the only relief arms capable of getting Cleveland outs. With a 6 run lead in game four, and with Corey Kluber rolling, he went to Miller for two innings of work. Despite a six to nothing tally in favor of the Indians at home in game one, Francona went to both Miller and Allen for a combined three innings as well. He's given the Cubs extended and unnecessary looks at both pitchers at times, as well as not having his two best options available in arguably more pressing situations.

For Maddon, it hasn't been so much that there's been bullpen over-reliance as it has been a realization that the Cubs pen is really what it is. Instead of having a Miller and Allen type, the Cubs are pretty much whatever they can get until Chapman can enter a game. Their first relievers most nights have been C.J. Edwards, Mike Montgomery, and Justin Grimm. That group is capable, but far from unhittable.

Aside from the minor disagreements with usage, there's nothing else to surmise from the way both teams have used their relievers in the World Series other than it's something that more teams need to get on board with. Sure, a baseball game ends after the 9th inning, but suggesting that a game is always won or lost at that period of time is quite the goofy suggestion. If you are looking to lock down a big situation earlier in the game, you should absolutely do so.

With statistics being what they are, a closer is always going to look at saves and opportunities as a bargaining chip when it comes time to be paid. While that's absolutely fair, it shouldn't be the only thing that's considered. The Indians had to give up quite the haul for Andrew Miller, and he's been compensated quite well across his career. Yeah, it's nice to increase a save tally for your personal records, but Andrew Miller has just one this entire Postseason, and he's easily been the most important reliever to step foot on the mound.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

The Kid Gets The Show

Today, PlayStation and Sony San Diego announced that Ken Griffey Jr. would grace the cover of the upcoming MLB The Show 17. The game will release on March 28, 2017.

Griffey has been a part of some of the most iconic baseball video games ever created. Games created using his namesake back on the Nintendo 64 still remain classics to this day. After being enshrined in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame this year, he'll be brought into the current generation.
Sony San Diego has said that Griffey will be a playable legend in The Show 17, and hopefully there's a mode that will allow for his career highlights to be replayed. Check out the details below to find out what you can expect from the MVP, Digital Delxue, and Hall of Fame Editions of the game.

MLB The Show 17 MVP Edition

The gamer favorite MVP Edition is back for another year! With over $130 USD in content – this 69.99 USD/89.99 CAD (MSRP) edition not only includes a ton of digital goods but also the limited edition MVP Steel Book (physical version only). It’s available for pre-order starting today at retailers and at PlayStation Store.
  • Limited Edition MVP Steel Book
  • Gold Season Starter Pack (Includes Mission Starter for Gold item)
  • 5,000 Stubs
  • 1 Sponsor Pack
  • 10 Standard Packs
  • 31 MLB PS4 Themes

MLB The Show 17 Digital Deluxe Edition

For our top tier Diamond Dynasty and Road To The Show fans, we are bringing back The Digital Deluxe Edition for ’17 exclusive to PlayStation Store. The Digital Deluxe Edition has over $200 USD value in digital goods for only $99.99 USD/$119.99 CAD (MSRP). For those of you that need packs on packs on packs, you know which edition is for you.
  • Gold Season Starter Pack (Includes Mission Starter for Gold item)
  • Diamond Season Starter Pack (Includes Mission Starter for Diamond item)
  • Digital Deluxe Pack
  • 11,000 Stubs
  • 1 Sponsor Pack
  • 20 Standard Packs
  • 31 PS4 MLB Themed Avatars

MLB The Show 17 Hall of Fame Edition

Let’s start with something shiny and new shall we? With Ken Griffey Jr. gracing the cover this year we wanted to create a collector’s edition worthy of The Kid. To do so, we partnered with New Era to create a limited Hall of Fame Edition 9FIFTY snap back to commemorate Jr.’s return to gaming in The Show 17. Pre-order today because quantities are extremely limited! The Hall of Fame Edition is $99.99 USD/$119.99 CAD (MSRP) and it includes over $205 USD in value, making it a must-have for the most dedicated fans of the Show and The Kid. The Full Contents:
  • New Era Hall of Fame Edition 9FIFTY Hat
  • Limited Edition MVP Steel Book
  • Digital Diamond Dynasty New Era Hall of Fame Edition 9FIFTY Hat for use in game
  • Diamond Season Starter Pack (Includes Mission Starter for Diamond item)
  • Gold Season Starter Pack (Includes Mission Starter for Gold item)
  • 11,000 Stubs
  • 1 Sponsor Pack
  • 10 Standard Packs
  • 31 MLB PS4 Themes

You can preorder the Standard and MVP Editions of the game from Amazon here. Prime members get a 20% pre-order discount.

Cubs Hold The Keys To Future Riches

Having not played in a major league baseball game since early April, Kyle Schwarber stepped in against Cleveland Indians starter Corey Kluber. He'd rehabbed, used the cage, and even gotten in time during the Arizona Fall League, but this was the World Series.

In his first game in roughly six months, he ripped a double as he settled in for the Chicago Cubs. It was game two however, that the magic really took center stage. Over the course of what equated to just hit fourth through seventh at bats at the big league level in quite some time, the Indiana product collected two singles while driving in two runs and scoring another. Through the first two games of the 2016 Major League Baseball World Series, it was Kyle Schwarber that had stolen the show.

Now as the series shifts back to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field however, Schwarber will be asked to contribute in a different way. Thus far, he's operated as the Chicago Cubs designated hitter, a position that the National League (unfortunately, in my opinion) doesn't embrace. Back at home, he'll either have to play the field, and test out his surgically repaired knee, or be asked to continue his heroics off of the bench as a pinch hitter.

In Cleveland though, the Cubs displayed the height of what Kyle Schwarber is in the game of baseball.

A year ago, Schwarber debuted with the Cubs and played 21 games behind the plate, 41 in left field, and another four in right field. Total across all of that action, he was worth -5 defensive runs saved. Extrapolated to a 162 game sample size, that's a -12 DRS mark. While there's markedly worse players in the field across the big leagues, it's also a representation of Schwarber's defensive ability, or lack thereof.

So, what happens in the World Series the rest of the way will add to the storyline that's already in place, but the long term future remains clear; Kyle Schwarber is an American League designated hitter. His bat got him to the big leagues, and it'll continue to be the driving force behind who he is.

In 69 games during the 2015 season, Schwarber hit the ball hard nearly 40% of the time. Roughly a quarter of the balls he put in the air went over the fence, His 16 homers equate to a 162 game average of 38, a number that would put him right in the thick of teammates Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. No matter how you look at it, Schwarber's power is real, and his bat will play.

For the Cubs, Schwarber rounds out as one of the most important pieces to their present, as well as their future. He could be, and has been, a key cog on their quest to the first World Series victory since 1908, and in due time, could reward them with a restocked pipeline.

This season, it was Kyle that the Yankees sought in return for Andrew Miller, the Cubs said no, and it looks like that move will pay off. As prospects such as Ian Happ and Eloy Jimenez make their way to the big leagues, Chicago could find themselves needing a big time arm, or another final piece to go for more rings. By parting with Schwarber, they could unlock whatever return they need to make that happen.

There's reason for pause in suggesting that a 23 year old transition to a full time designated hitter role. The Minnesota Twins couldn't bring themselves to do it with Miguel Sano, and it's quite the decision to take the glove off of such a young big leaguer. In certain scenarios though, it works out, and you may end up finding the next David Ortiz.

I have no idea when the Cubs will, or if they will ever, trade Kyle Schwarber. I do know that he was an incredible hitter well before his World Series heroics though, and the performance has only cemented that. His value continues to skyrocket through the roof, and one day, if they so choose, the Cubs will have their pick of virtually anyone they want in return for the guy who made it back.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Get To Know Twins General Manager Thad Levine

Last night, LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune reported that the Minnesota Twins next General Manager will be none other than Thad Levine. Levin is currently working with the Texas Rangers under Jon Daniels, and he'll assume the role with the Twins under new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey.

As the news broke last night, stories started to filter in about who Thad Levine was. Twins Daily's Cody Christie had Levine tabbed as a potential candidate way back in July, before we even knew of Falvey and the reorganization of the front office. Also hailing from Twins Daily, Parker Hageman found this amazing Reddit "Ask Me Anything" that Levine participated in a couple of years ago.

There's a lot of good information, and you can read the entire thread here, but I pulled some of my favorites.

On what types of things are asked for in big league contracts aside from money:

You would be surprised what some players ask for in negotiations. Or put better, what some agents ask for on their player's behalf. Common things like no trade protection, bonuses for awards or reaching certain performance thresholds. What has become more prevalent is that clubs will ask players to agree to make annual charitable contributions. This is one of the things that inspired us to launch www.meaningfulwins.com, because we found so many players were passionate about giving back and rabid fantasy football players. 
For the players from the Pacific Rim, you will oftentimes see requests for interpreters and massage therapists. Some of the most uncommon things that you will find in contracts - flights for family members to join the player on the road, and by far the most curious thing that I ever have seen was one player asked for an annual $250,000 allowance for his wife to spend on her equestrian expenses.
 On using sites like Baseball Reference and Fangraphs:
Those sites, and others, have done such a phenomenal job. I believe that is why you see so many clubs hiring their employees. Really the only thing that we have access to that they do not is an extensive database from our scouts. We use those sites extensively in our analysis. 
We scour the entire sites, and several others. We are not too proud. If there is cutting edge information out there, we want to know about it.
 On social media, Twitter, and the difficulty it presents with breaking news:
You identified one of our biggest challenges. This has impacted us unfortunately quite negatively. Used to be that we could tell all the players involved in trades before it became public. Now, that is extremely difficult to do. Last year, Ian Kinsler found out through the media that he had been traded. We felt awful, but someone called the media literally before we were able to complete a call to Ian. 
That being said, at the trade deadline, we are all on twitter, because you may be surprised how many trade discussions are inspired or refined by tweets
 On what the discussion points of the next CBA may be:
I believe that the next CBA will be centered around discussions about a World Wide Draft and further means to keep payrolls in check on the high end and competitive on the low end.
 On analytics and sabermetrics:
When the book Money Ball came out, front offices were labeled as either analytical or scouting based in their decision making. As a "younger" front office, we used to be younger than we are now, we were considered an analytical group, when in practice, we were much more scouting focused in our decision making. In the past five years, we have made significant investments in analytics both in people and systems.
 On long term contracts and big deals like Albert Pujols:
I am not a fan of contracts of that length and total investment, but i certainly understand why teams sign them. Generally speaking when you pitch those types of deals to your owners, you acknowledge that the value is in the first few years, and that you knowingly will have a player who will not live up to his salary in the last few years of the deal.
On replay:
I think that the goal is to get the calls correct. No on likes the stoppages. Perhaps, we could put a 2 minute time limit on reviews. If the umpires dont see anything conclusive in 2 minutes, then the play on the field stands.
 On having a Twitter:
I am on twitter, under an alias...
There's no shortage of good information across the entire thread, but Levine was really candid and that's awesome. Having a front office that includes a 33 and 41 year old is quite a bit different from the duo that was Terry Ryan and Rob Antony. If the Twins were to be graded off of the perception gleaned from the two hires they've made at the top this offseason, it'd be hard not to give them an A.

The Why's Of World Series Game One

As the World Series kicked off, we've gotten plenty of storylines to monitor. With both the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs coming in as darling teams, it was pretty safe to assume this one would be a lot of fun. The matchup pits arguably the two best managers in baseball, Terry Francona and Joe Maddon, against each other as well. I did find a few decisions confusing from the both of them last night however.

Starting on the losing side, the Cubs decisions came in key offensive situations. Corey Kluber was rolling all night long, and it looked as though he was going to be virtually untouchable. If the Cubs were going to take game one, they needed to get to him for a big run.

The first head scratcher for me was in the top of the 5th inning. The Cubs were already down by three runs, and Kluber had stayed sharp. Leading off the inning for Chicago was Chris Coghlan. Coghlan drew the start in right field over Jason Heyward, the Cubs $184 million dollar man. Sure, Coghlan was better after coming off the DL this summer, and he had a .779 OPS for Chicago in 48 games, but he also owned a .487 OPS for the Athletics this season, and hasn't slugged above .452 since his rookie year in 2009. With bats like Jorge Soler, Willson Contreras, and even Heyward on the bench, I would have used one in that spot.

A big blast changes the momentum (even being a solo shot), and a base hit starts the inning right. Unfortunately, Maddon stuck with Coghlan only to watch him strike out looking for the second time on the night.

Fast forward to the top of the 7th inning, and the Cubs had mounted a threat. Facing the Indians best relief pitcher in Andrew Miller, they loaded the bases and seemingly had him on the ropes. Down three and needing something with two outs, the Cubs allowed David Ross to bat. In 67 games this season, Ross owned a .784 OPS. That was his highest mark since 2010, and with the Cubs needing a hit or walk, his .203 average and .304 OBP over the past two seasons seemed daunting.

Maddon again decided to bypass giving a player like Miguel Montero, Soler, or Heyward the bat. Ross worked a full count but swung and missed through strike three. The Cubs didn't score, and their best chance to get to Miller fell by the wayside.

On the Indians side of things, there wasn't much to question with the offense. They scored six runs and gave up none. Francona's group got things done with their bats against Jon Lester and the Cubs bullpen. It's in the pitching decisions that I found myself scratching my head however.

Despite rolling through the Cubs lineup, Corey Kluber was removed after throwing 88 pitches through six innings. At the time he left, the Indians were up 3-0, and Francona went to Miller. This is where things get dicey for me. Yes, Kluber is going to pitch game four, and likely game seven if Cleveland needs him. He represents their only starting option better than what the Cubs have to offer, limiting his pitch count makes sense. What doesn't is bringing in Miller in that spot.

A three-run lead in the 7th doesn't strike me as something you need your guranteed reliever to hold onto. Francona had Miller throw two innings, and 46 pitches, in a game that should have been well in hand. Bryan Shaw, Ryan Merritt, Dan Otero, or some other arm could've came in and likely completed the same task. Had they found trouble, Miller could've bailed them out.

Now, with Trevor Bauer pitching a rain-threatened game two with a bad pinky, Francona will be without Miller and the Cubs have a significant pitching advantage. Yeah, lock down the game one win when you can, but the World Series requires you win three more, and using Miller there might have punted on game two.

The second pitching decision that was confusing followed the same vein as the Miller option. Francona called on Cody Allen, his closer, to pitch the 9th inning while the Indians were up 6-0. Sure, they've had a layoff and getting Allen used early in the series could help to have him settle in. In game one though, it allowed the Cubs hitters to see the Cleveland closer before they should've been given the opportunity to check out his stuff.

Just one game into this thing, it'll be interesting to see how these decisions trickle down into game two and beyond. If I'm a Cubs fan, game one was an absolute must win for the Indians. Kluber represents the lone starter they can hang their hat on. It's game two that Chicago should be focused in on, and a loss there would be surprising. If the Cubs head back to Wrigley Field with things even at 1-1, they should feel well positioned for a Series victory in five or six games. Should they fall and go down 2-0, that's where pressing begins to happen at the friendly confines.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Falvey Has To Fix A Massive Minnesota Flaw

Maybe it's because here in the upper Midwest, we operate from the standpoint of Minnesota nice. It could be that wherever Terry Ryan and his colleagues come from, they believe in operating for the benefit of their competitor. Heck, maybe the definition of a trade is a really large gray area for the Twins front office. As Derek Falvey steps in though, fixing a broken avenue for player acquisition is a must.

As the Cubs reached the World Series this season, I've thought back to this piece I wrote in June about where the Twins got off the path Chicago has been on. Both teams found themselves in similar situations, and while the Cubs operate with bigger budgets, it's the Twins that have not done much to stack the deck in their favor.

Prior to their World Series appearance, Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball looked at seven moves that made the Cubs winners. What's of note, is that not a single one of these seven moves includes a free agent acquisition. Of the Cubs most important and best decisions, you'll find a path littered with key deals and well scouted draft picks.

Sure, the Twins have plenty to fix when it comes to their draft. Tyler Jay could turn around to be a reliever, Kohl Stewart has regressed, and Nick Gordon may not stick at shortstop. All that said though, it's on the trade front that the Twins have done absolutely nothing. Looking back, there's very few highlights when it comes to swaps made by the Twins in recent memory.

Starting in 2010, there's one of the worst trades the Twins have made in franchise history. Wilson Ramos was a 22 year old top 100 prospect for Minnesota. He was behind Joe Mauer, but sending him to the Washington Nationals for Matt Capps seemed foolish. Relievers are fickle, and even an elite closer (which Capps was not), should cause some pause on the trade market. Capps saved just 45 games over parts of three seasons with the Twins. Ramos has gone on to be (when healthy) one of the best two way catchers in the big leagues.

Fast forward to 2012, and we watched as Ryan decided centerfield was ready for Aaron Hicks. First, Denard Span was sent to the Nationals for top pitching prospect Alex Meyer. Then a week later, Ben Revere was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May. I'll touch more on Meyer later on, but the Phillies deal was always about May. Worley pitched only 48.2 innings with the Twins, and has become a bullpen piece that bounces around since. Trevor May remains with Minnesota, and it's time he contribute in a more drastic way. Getting him back into the rotation could help to unlock that.

2013 wasn't a big year for the Twins and moving pieces. They sent Ryan Doumit to the Atlanta Braves for Sean Gilmartin, but neither player contributed a whole lot. Gilmartin went to the Mets eventually in the Rule 5 Draft, and Doumit's career came to an end due to his concussion issues.

If 2013 was quiet, then 2014 was a fire sale for Minnesota. After making an odd decision to sign him, the Twins dealt Kendrys Morales to the Seattle Mariners for Stephen Pryor. Pryor never pitched for the Twins failing to impress at Triple-A while remaining injured. Morales was terrible with Seattle, but won a World Series and a Silver Slugger in 2015 with the Royals.

Staying in 2014, Minnesota made one of the deals in recent memory the organization can hang their hat on. Sam Fuld was signed after the Athletics DFA'd him, and Terry Ryan flipped him back to Oakland for major league starting pitcher, Tommy Milone. Neither player had a ton of upside, but getting big league pitching for a castoff was a nice win., Kevin Correia was given away to the Dodgers in August of 2014, and Josh Willingham was sent to the Royals for Jason Adam. Minnesota had hung onto Willingham too long, and he was nothing like the player that he was a year prior.

Over the winter prior to the 2016 season, Minnesota swapped depth catcher Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka of the Diamondbacks. Herrmann had a nice 2016, but Palka's power potential alone makes him more intriguing than Chris would have ever been for Minnesota.

At the deadline, Minnesota made moves to acquire Pat Light for Fernando Abad, and somehow got a top 100 prospect in Adalberto Mejia for the mirage that was Eduardo Nunez's season. The big one to cap it off was the swap of Ricky Nolasco's ugly contract and Alex Meyer, for Hector Santiago and Alan Busenitz. Mejia looks like a clear win for Minnesota, but even the ridding of Nolasco's deal could come back to bite the organization if Meyer's early returns in LA are to be trusted.

While there's some up and down, the reality is that the Twins have been on the bad side of trades far too often in recent memory. When they make moves, it generally doesn't work out in their favor. There's also the reality that they just simply haven't made enough quality deals. While teams like the Cubs give from positions of strength to get better, Minnesota has combined drafting poorly, and scouting other organizations less than ideally when it comes to acquiring talent.

Fortunately for Minnesota, it appears new Baseball Operations President, Derek Falvey should have some expertise here. He's helped to land Cleveland some really nice pieces, and doing so for the Twins would be putting the organization's best foot forward.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Are We Safe With Replay?

Over the course of the Major League Baseball Postseason, the newly implemented replay system has been on full display. Umpires have gone to the headsets often, and New York has weighed in on some pretty substantial calls. That all being said, it's worth wondering what place replay has in baseball, and if it has a place at all.

Now here's the deal, technology being what it is, we have the capacity to slow live action down and get a closer look at controversial happenings throughout a sporting contest. The problem is that, no matter how many experts weigh in, we still seemingly can't agree. When it comes down to it, replay it sports is being used as a confirmation or denial of an already accepted ruling. The on field umpire or referee has ruled on an outcome, and we go to a slow motion version of that instance to try and deduce the correct outcome.

During game four of the National League Championship Series, a poor Jason Heyward throw to catcher Wilson Contreras made a play at the plate incredibly close with Dodgers runner Adrian Gonzalez. On the field, the home plate umpire called Gonzalez out. He wasn't wrong, but reply indicated he also may not have been right. In seeing Gonzalez slide in seemingly at the same instant as the tag, whether the call had been safe or out, overturning the decision on the field would have been a tough ask.
That brings us to what purpose replay should play, and whether or not the current format makes sense. Given the implications of that slide, it's immediately fair to wonder whether or not Gonzalez got in before the tag. We saw throughout the multiple slow motion angles that it was virtually impossible to tell. What we did find out was that there was nothing wrong with taking a moment to look. My stance is that moment must be kept to a minimum.

As things stand currently, one of the longest parts of the replay process is managers standing at the top steps of their respective dugouts deciding whether or not to ask New York for help. At some point, wasting time to zoom in to the molecular level of a play in an already long game is senseless. Home runs, bang-bang calls, and controversial, game-altering plays should be looked at, but why not do so out of habit?

If there's something that takes place on the field of play in which a question arises in regards to the correct outcome, look at it. Forget about waiting on the manager, or the umpire. Have a source in New York take a look, then confirm or overturn the call almost instantaneously. Human error is going to happen, it's part of the game, and you're really only looking to circumvent the egregious mistakes.
When Denard Span overslid the base against the Mets, he was deemed out due to his foot popping off of the base. Sure, that's a technical application of the rules, but it's also one that baseball is not better for. Having the ability to garner an out by zooming in, slowing down, and deciphering the game that closely isn't better for anyone. That's the type of replay where the system has begun to fail us.

Major League Baseball has taken significant strides to make things right more often than not on the field, and that's good enough for me. I don't need an electronic strike zone to alleviate the reality that an umpire is an individual and is going to interpret his imaginary box differently than another. I don't want to see play stopped in a tightly contested game for multiple minutes to find out if a sheet of paper could have fit in the separation between player and base. When something is up in the air, look at it, and if there's definitive evidence for it to be overturned, do so.

Replay is instituted better in sports with boundaries. Was the catch made in bounds? Did the player release the ball before the shot clock went off? Baseball has a significant amount of gray area, and slowing down the game to a minute level is never going to change that. Adrian Gonzalez might have been safe, but he was called out, and it's hard to have a problem with that either.

Give me a version of baseball the replay is instituted quickly and sensibly. It's reach has already gone a bit too far, let's scale it back a bit.