Molitor Managing For His Career

Paul Molitor compiled over 3,000 hits and played in over 2,600 games in his career. He was enshrined in the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown, New York. Paul Molitor the player accomplished about as much as humanly possible of the baseball field, the managerial version has been less successful however.

Now with a new front office regime in Minnesota, Paul Molitor will be proving his worth to an entirely different crowd. The argument can definitely be made that the Twins manager should've been fired ending the 2016 season. His club lost a franchise worst 103 games, he looked inept at times during critical in game situations, and his reliability to the franchise's lifeblood, its youth, seemed lacking. While there was the successful 2015 campaign before it, 2016 did no favors to Paul Molitor's managerial credibility.

While Jim Pohlad did make the decision to begrudgingly dismiss General Manager Terry Ryan, he mandated that whoever come into the role be tied to Molitor for the 2017 season. It was a decision seen as something of a detractor to an otherwise attractive role. However, Minnesota landed their men, and now must move forward into the year that lies ahead.

As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine enter, the Twins now have a front office duo that combined are nearly the junior to Ryan's age. They bring a new line of thinking with them, and appear more inclined to welcome all possible avenues for growth and advancement within the franchise. On top of what they are on their own, neither men has any more tie to the former Twins (and Brewers) great than the relationship they are developing in the moment. With nothing to hang his future hat on, Molitor must know his time is now.

Given that the Twins will find themselves at somewhat of a crossroads in 2017, Molitor's management will come into the spotlight early and often. The club was awful a season ago due in large part to pitching that was simply not big league quality. Bouncing back to somewhere even slightly below average should give this club a decent shot at chasing a .500 record. The little things over the course of the season, and on a game-by-game basis, will determine how realistic it is that they reach or surpass that mark.

Without immediate notes to point to, recalling late game bunting scenarios, bullpen management, pinch hitting decision, and arguably the most egregious, lineup construction, highlight the areas in which Paul Molitor continually fell short. Having a team void of the superstar big league, Molitor will need to become a manager that does more with less, and further positions his team to achieve past their potential. It will be on both Falvey and Levine to decide whether or not Paul accomplishes that feat.

In 2017, Molitor will have more help around him. Going outside of the organization, the Twins have a hitting coach in James Rowson that can be no worse than the dated ideals of Tom Brunansky's "drive-the-ball-into-the-ground" style, and his over emphasis on changing hitters to all fit a similar mold. They also have brought in Jeff Pickler from the Dodgers organization, with the sole purpose being a liaison between baseball between the lines, and the game played on a piece of paper. Before anything even gets started, Molitor should find himself better positioned than he was to start the 2016 season.

Given no assurances, and with nothing to hang his hat on, it could be a while before Molitor finds another opportunity should this one come up empty. Molitor has long been groomed within the Twins organization, and beat out another internal candidate in the form of Doug Mientkiewicz. He'll now need to exceed the expectations of an external duo and generate a list of accomplishments that tie directly to what he has provided from the dugout's top step.

There's really no reason to bet against Molitor in 2017. The Twins will enter with low expectations, and pieces in place to surpass them. It's in the club's best interest to establish continuity during their rebuild, and Molitor can make a case to be at the heart of it all. If he's going to do so however, he'll need to get the buy in from his young players, and turn them into the stars Twins Territory has heard about for years. It's an uphill battle for the Minnesota native, but Paul Molitor absolutely appears to be fighting for his managerial career in 2017.

May Gives Twins Another Option

August 14, 2016 was the last time Trevor May started a game for the Minnesota Twins. He lasted just three innings giving up two runs on five hits. Since that game against the Cleveland Indians, May has worked solely as a reliever for Minnesota. Now with his status for 2017 up in the air, it appears a return to the rotation could be in the cards.

Acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Ben Revere, May was always the headliner of the deal that also included Vance Worley. He was expected to be an impact rotation arm, and while not an ace, was someone that surely should compete for many years. Now 27 years old, he's made just 25 big league starts and pitched a total of 203 innings across three seasons.

In 2016, Paul Molitor used May in high leverage situations and at the end of games until the wheels fell off. He posted a 5.27 ERA which was inflated due to poor defense as evidenced by his 3.80 FIP. Command was an issue for Trevor last season as he issued 3.6 walks per nine innings, but his strikeouts saw a big jump as he posted 12.7 per nine. In his first season as a full time reliever, there were glimpses of a really good pen arm. Unfortunately, he also experienced back issues that were likely tied to usage, and will undoubtedly factor into any decisions made for 2017.

So, now having been a starter and a reliever with a decent body of work to look back upon, can May really be counted on to give the Twins anything of substance? I've always been a bit torn as to whether or not I believe in him out of the rotation, but given the health concerns, I think it's the only way you get production out of him at all.

Working solely as a starter in 2014, May watched his fastball velocity sit right under 92 mph. As a reliever for the bulk of the past two seasons, he saw an uptick to nearly 94 mph in 2016. Also in 2016, May pushed his swinging strike rate up to 13.2%. Working out of the pen plays into both of those jumps, but it also could've provided a new perspective for him.

If May is going to be effective as a starter, he'll need to keep a focus on the things that worked for him out of the pen. Understandably the velocity will dial back down a bit as he looks to pitch deeper into games. However, he was allowing a career best 72.3% contact rate in 2016, and missing bats is something the Twins desperately need from their starters. If he can stay ahead in counts, and give up less of the med/hard contact (86.1%) he allowed a season ago, there's reason to believe he'll be a better version of the starter he once was.

Expecting May to be a savior for the Minnesota rotation isn't a good bet at all, but there's plenty of room for him to contribute. With the need for a quality arm or two on the back end of the group, you could do a lot worse than Trevor May. He's not a soft-tosser, and with some expected upside still in his favor, Paul Molitor should be pushing to get the best version of the one-time top prospect.

For a team that needs rotation help, May provides an internal option. I'd heavily shy away from him working out of the pen if you want him to stay healthy, and while he's not a slam dunk starting option, I believe he's one the Twins should welcome.

Does Minnesota Trust What's Next?

As the offseason rolls on for the Minnesota Twins, easily the biggest storyline thus far has been the potential trade of Brian Dozier. I believe it's a move they must make, and more a matter of when as opposed to if. In a potential Dozier transaction though, the Twins will be faced with an interesting decision. Do they trust the next man up?

In the particular scenario of second base, the next man up would be Jorge Polanco, who played out of position at shortstop a season ago. The reality for a rebuilding team with young pieces though, is which ones are actually difference makers going forward. It's not just Polanco that the new braintrust has to decide upon, but actually a few fringe types that are worth wondering about.

Giving each of them some individual analysis, here's my thoughts on how some of the Twins positional youth factors into their long term plans.

Jorge Polanco

The aforementioned Polanco is an immediate replacement for Brian Dozier at second. He's not the power hitter that Dozier has become, but he's also not a dead pull bat and can spray the ball to all fields. He profiles as a more typical top two hitter, and has the ability to generate extra base hits with his speed. In a 69 G sample size during 2016, Polanco split balls put in play between grounders, liners, and fly balls, to the tune of roughly one-third each. He swung out of the zone far too often (also one-third), but had a respectable 84% contact rate. An abysmal shortstop, he's just fine at second base. The bat has always carried belief, and the total package should be one the Twins feel good about.

Kennys Vargas

It's actually interesting that Vargas was granted another option year for 2017. Had he not been, he's someone I would have totally been ok with the Twins DFA'ing with the potential that he's lost on waivers. Try to get out from the fact that he has a similar stature to David Ortiz, and accept that he may just be a guy. Now with roughly a full season worth of big league action split between three years, Vargas has shown an inability to take walks (aside from his impressive showing down the 2016 stretch). He makes contact just north of 70% of the time, and you'd definitely like to see more of his fly balls leave the yard. Vargas carries an average first base glove at best, and I'm not sure you couldn't find another DH type with more upside.

Eddie Rosario

Admittedly I was all in on getting Eddie Rosario to the big leagues prior to the 2015 season. He looked like a difference maker, and actually proved to be as much picking up Rookie of the Year votes. What his league leading 15 triples and impressive 16 outfield assists in 2015 masked were some bigger issues however. As the triples faded, the OPS and SLG tumbled. Rosario tries to be a bad ball hitter, chasing more than 40% of the time, but he also has gotten worse with his swing and its tendencies (up over 15% in 2016). In the outfield, he went from an 11 DRS mark in 2015 to a 2 DRS mark a year ago. At times, you wonder whether or not it's an effort thing, but Rosario's approach also may be too much to overcome. Right now, he fits for the Twins, but I'd be all in on another option or packaging him in a trade.

Danny Santana

There's maybe nothing more for Danny Santana to be able to hang his big league hat on than his rookie year. An incredibly unsustainable .405 BABIP led to an inflated .319 AVG. In the two seasons since, Santana has gone on to slash an ugly .227/.259/.308. He doesn't have much of a defensive ability, and at the plate he has become little more than a man with a bat. If he's going to play outfield, I think I'd give Zach Granite a look instead. If you want him as an infielder, Engelb Vielma could possibly be the choice. Santana is out of options, and it seems inevitable he's DFA'd at some point. What started off great never looked real, but it's also unfortunate it fell this far apart as well.

John Ryan Murphy

Maybe an odd inclusion for this list, Murphy gets a look being only 25 years old. While he didn't come through the Twins system, there was some belief from the old regime in swapping Aaron Hicks for him. Having played 67 games for the Yankees in 2015 with an OPS of .734, it appeared he may have a solid hit tool for the Twins. As things went last year, Murphy played in just 26 big league games, was passed over for Juan Centeno, and owned just a .609 OPS in 83 Triple-A games. He's decent in working the running game, and an ok receiver, but he doesn't do anything incredibly well. At this point, having Murphy and Mitch Garver battle for backup duties out of the gate seems like a good plan of action. With Jason Castro around for the next three seasons, Murphy won't see real work anytime soon. That said, it's pretty realistic that he could slide behind the Twins internally developed Garver as well.

Dozier And The Discussion Of Necessity

The Minnesota Twins have not had a ton of needs to address this offseason. While the 2016 season produced the worst record in major league history, it was indicative of the worst pitching staff in the big leagues. With more reason to rely on internal options, addressing deficiencies through a poor free agent market never seemed like a good bet. If there was something to be addressed though, it was Brian Dozier.

Coming off the best season of his career, the first as an All Star, and having totaled over 40 homers for the first (and potentially only) time, Minnesota finds themselves at a crossroads. Sure, there's little room to argue that the Twins lineup isn't better with Dozier in it, but in getting back to being a playoff contender, does Dozier realistically fit in the picture?

It's been clear for quite some time that Minnesota was going to be forced into a decision. Jorge Polanco is an up and coming prospect that can realistically only help the Twins at second base. Dozier wasn't extended into his free agent years, will undoubtedly never be better, and is playing for a Twins squad that isn't exactly close to contending. So, does Minnesota need to trade him at all costs?

The short answer is yes, but the longer answer is yes with some caveats.

Thus far, the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the likely landing spot. That has been expected since the talks of a trade were initially thought probable. Los Angeles needs just another piece or two for a World Series run, and second base remains a large hole for them. With the club now open to trading their top pitching prospect Jose De Leon, Minnesota is simply jostling with who joins him on the flight to the Twin Cities.

As expected, the Dozier are reluctant to trade first base prospect Cody Bellinger. He's near big league ready, looks like the real deal, and should seamlessly take over for Adrian Gonzalez. Expecting the Dodgers to deal Yadier Alvarez, whom they invested over $30 million in signing him out of Cuba, never seemed like a good bet. Asking for 2016 draft pick Walker Bueller didn't seem to be a realistic bet either. Nonetheless, Minnesota has inquired on all three and reportedly been turned down.

That brings up to the "trade Dozier at all costs" crossroads. Right now, the Twins have followed the best possible path in dealing their star. They made sure to guarantee that the centerpiece of any deal is included, and they've aimed as high as possible for any secondary players. Now it's time to pull the trigger and take what else you can get.

De Leon quite possibly helps the Twins more long term than does Dozier. Getting another prospect such as Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun in addition is something Minnesota should feel content with. While they may not see the immediate impact that another year of Dozier may provide, understanding that any step backwards would squash the ability to move him at any time. Right now it's about asking for the stars (they have) and settling for everything you can get (they need to).

With how much smoke there has been this offseason in regards to Dozier moving from Minnesota to Los Angeles, you'd be hard pressed to suggest anything less than a 90 percent chance a deal is consummated. It's taking a bit longer than I imagined, but the process the Twins have followed thus far has been the right one. At this point, it's time to back off the highest ask, take what you can get, and close the chapter on a deal that should benefit both sides.

What's Santa Gifting The Twins?

In the midst of the offseason, the snow has flown and Target Field has gone into its winter slumber. With warm thoughts of Spring Training on our minds, surpassing the benchmark of Christmas helps us barrel towards Opening Day 2017. For a Minnesota Twins team coming off of a franchise worst season, what is Santa Claus gifting the club this year?

It's probably pretty hard to categorize whether or not the organization was naughty or nice. I mean, it was anything but a strong year, but maybe the Twins applied for the lovable losers moniker. No matter what designation on the worthiness scale they are given, Santa is a compassionate chap and wants to dole out one gift to the club for 2017.

Sure, it'd be great if the Twins turned out to have their own version of a staff ace. The reality is, the ghost of Clayton Kershaw isn't walking into the clubhouse any time soon. We could also ask St. Nick for a big bopper, but Brian Dozier launched 40 plus homers a year ago and is likely on his way out the door. Heck, going straight to the top and begging for a shiny World Series ring would even be fun, but even in make-believe land, that's a feat too drastic to pull off.

So, what is it that the Twins organization is gifted for 2017? What if I told you the answer is nothing, and they already had everything they needed?

Right now, the best thing to happen to the Twins was an infusion of perspective. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine both bring ideals and principles that have otherwise not been adopted by the organization. They come from outside and haven't been brought up along the same line of thinking as those that have recently failed in their posts ahead of them.

In choosing to revitalize the front office with two new thinkers, Minnesota gives themselves an opportunity that they have passed up in recent years. With a roster that was mainly treading water, the organization can fully commit to a rebuild utilizing pieces they've obtained, and figure out where their true deficiencies lie. At this point, it appears Minnesota has some intriguing talent on the farm, but many of them haven't been positioned well enough to understand how they fit going forward.

At the top, Paul Molitor's club remains a few key areas leveling off away from a much different year. Rather than being league worst in pitching, a jump to somewhere near the middle would make a significant difference. The offense is there, if not consistent, and the pieces to at least show up on a nightly basis remain in tact. Whether or not Molitor remains the most capable leader is still up for debate, but both Falvey and Levine will now have a front row seat in making that decision.

Really what it boils down to is that there's no Golden Ticket for this Twins club. They aren't one piece away from being a serious contender, but they aren't void of assets either. The gift they needed was an individual (or duo in this case) committed to a turnaround. Rather than placing band-aids on bullet holes, it's an opportunity to act, make difficult decisions, and take the long term route towards moving forward.

If free agency and the offseason has been any indication of this gift, it's that the Twins too know they aren't one shiny present away. Enjoy what they have been given, stay the course, and commit to it. Right now Minnesota is making the long play, and given the pieces that can be moved around the blueprint, living in the present with the gift we've been given is something we can all embrace.

Where Does The Twins Pitching Come From?

A year after having the worst starting pitching staff in the big leagues, the Minnesota Twins will be looking to turn a significant corner in 2017. Paul Molitor has a pretty realistic opportunity to bounce back greatly in the wins column, but it's only going to happen if he can get productive outings from his starters.

While the Twins haven't had a true ace since the days of Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana, there are plenty of teams the operate with a good group rather than a top heavy individual. The Twins will be taking the latter path this year as they fill out their rotation, but the question becomes exactly who rounds it out.

Going into the year, I count at least 10 pitchers that Minnesota could task with starting a game. After using 11 different starters last season, I opined that the Twins would run out no more than 8 in 2017. Counting Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, and Kyle Gibson as rotation locks, the club will need to make decisions on the final two spots. That brings us to the candidates and the order of their likeliness:

Phil Hughes

In Hughes, the Twins have an odd scenario. He's absolutely a lock if he's healthy, but coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery doesn't guarantee that. Guys have bounced back differently, and he could be a shell of himself, or not pitch again at all. Hughes has faded every year since finishing 7th in the Cy Young voting during his first year with the Twins. If he does come back, hoping he lands somewhere just north of his 3.90 ERA across 2014-15 would make Minnesota ecstatic.

Trevor May

I'm much more skeptical than some on whether or not May finds success as a starter. Working as a reliever, he saw a nice spike in both his velocity and strikeout rates. Unfortunately, his back flared up and is likely tied to usage concerns. He hasn't consistently started since his debut season in 2014, and the results weren't good. Now more developed as a professional, the Twins will have to hope he can give them the strikeouts, with better command, and stay healthy.

Jose Berrios

After doing himself few favors last season, Berrios is going to be in a scenario in which he has to earn his spot during Spring Training. If Hughes isn't ready from the get go, I'd bet Berrios is the next man up. Command was the issue during Jose's rookie season, and his flat plane fastball got hit over the fence far too often (12 HR in 58.1 IP). The Twins will need to rely upon the year providing valuable experience, and the dominating stuff from Triple-A playing up a bit more at the highest level.

Adalberto Mejia

Acquired in exchange for Eduardo Nunez last season, Mejia was a nice get for the Twins system. He doesn't have flashy stuff, but should be capable of a back end spot in the rotation. In four starts for Triple-A Rochester, he totaled a 3.76 ERA to go with an 8.5 K/9. At the big league level he surrendered two earned runs across just 2.1 IP as a reliever. Mejia should get a serious look in Spring Training, and he's maybe the safer option if Minnesota wants to make absolutely sure that Berrios is ready.

Stephen Gonsalves

Now we get to the bit of the stretch portion for Opening Day rotation options. Gonsalves is the Twins top pitching prospect by most accounts, and he should be expected to be a solid contributor. However, he's yet to pitch above Double-A. While Gonsalves owned a 2.06 ERA last year, his 10.0 K/9 was watered down a bit by a 3.7 BB/9. He has some command issues to work through, and will need to rely on pitching at the higher levels as opposed to just throwing. I'd expect him to make his MLB debut this season, but not out of the gate.

Tyler Duffey

After starting 36 games for the Twins over his first two big league seasons, it's time Duffey heads to the bullpen. A college closer at Rice, Minnesota went the most sensible route in attempting to convert him to a starter first. Now 26 and without a dominant trio of offerings, he can be a very good two pitch reliever. His curveball is filthy when it's on, and he'll be more than capable of getting big leaguers out. Send him to the pen, decrease the homers (25 in 25 starts during 2016) and enjoy the uptick in velocity and strikeouts.

Justin Haley

Included here because Haley has worked as a starter for the entirety of his minor league career, and likely is slotted there in the Twins future, he should only see pen time this season. Haley did pitch at Triple-A during 2016 and fared well posting a 3.59 ERA. He has been categorized as among the safest Rule 5 picks, and many have said he's major league ready to back-end a rotation. Given what's ahead of him though, I'd welcome his opportunities in 2017 to come in a long relief role.

In The Hall, Morality Needs To Go

I have long been a supporter of guys linked to performance enhancing drugs being in the Hall of Fame. Simply put, if you don't believe that players like Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens are among the best to ever play the sport of baseball, you're unquestionably wrong. Here's where the caveats come in though, morality still plays a role that it has no business playing.

Today I read over a piece by BBWAA member and former Yankees beat writer Wallace Matthews. In it, he calls out Curt Schilling for being a baffon (political stance aside, he absolutely is), and huffs over the burden it is to cast a Hall of Fame ballot. While it's fair and understanding to note where he's coming from, the true burden is one that was cast upon him by the Baseball Hall of Fame itself.

Almost as equally long as I have contended that guys linked to PEDs but still deserving should be in The Hall, I've stated that the character clause is one of the goofiest prerequisites for inclusion at Cooperstown. Listen, the Baseball Writers Association of America should be asking journalists to quantify performance factors, not policing the shortcomings of the Commissioner and Major League Baseball itself. At the end of the day, inclusion in the Hall of Fame should be related to the amount of homers you smashed, strikeouts you tallied, or accolades you compiled while on the field of play.

When participating in Major League Baseball, players have gone through eras with live and dead balls. They have played the sport while certain races were excluded. Long before PEDs were the drugs of hatred, there were amphetamines and other choice vices that were explored. As a collective whole, the reality has always been that asking a group removed from decision making efforts within the sport, to retroactively rule on decisions that were made, was a losing battle.

Looking at Matthews' piece and knowing he isn't the first one to publicly defend his decision to throw away his vote, it's hard not to want something done about the burden he defines. At it's core, it seems quite haughty to come across as being above a privilege granted to so few. While The Hall has imposed the notion that morality be considered, the process involves nothing more than checking boxes of up to 10 players deserving of the game's highest honor.

While trying to be sympathetic to the tone of Matthews' message, it's also a tired one from a group that has so often fallen short of being worthy of give the benefit of doubt. I'm not sorry your journalistic profession has included you among a group of your peers that are tasked with helping us to celebrate baseball's greatest. I'm not sorry that the BBWAA as a whole has seen countless votes cast (or not cast) as personal vendettas or in trying to politic against those that wronged them while playing (or not playing) the game. I'm not sorry that it seems silly to cast votes for those you feel friendly towards, and want to give a final hat tip to. I'm really not sorry for any "burden" you'd like to define as part of the voting process.

If there's something to be sorry for, it is, and always has been, Cooperstown asking you to play morality cop. Most anyone that has ever watched the game can effectively evaluate the performance of a player's career, and a consensus (or at least a 75% consensus) should be relatively straightforward to reach in that line of thinking alone. It's time that morality stop playing such an issue in the voting process, both on the ballot, and in the fallout thereafter.

There have been positive changes from the BBWAA in recent years (removing writers no longer covering the game, accepting MLB.com writers, making ballots publicly available), but the large linchpin remains the character clause. It's time the ballot was simply used as a process of deeming who is worthy based on baseball merit alone, and celebrating that. Pushing writers to do what comes across as a look-at-me thing, while not voting or channeling feelings into their ballots should cease. Really though, it's the BBWAA and The Hall itself who continue to facilitate it all.