Today the Minnesota Twins announced one-year contracts with veteran starting pitchers Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The former immediately slots into the starting rotation while the latter won't be an option until early summer. With both acquisitions it's evident that the front office has an eye on building depth for a deep run.
Last Postseason Rocco Baldelli turned to rookie arm Randy Dobnak at Yankees Stadium. It seemed like a logical move given all of the available options, but predictably it went awry. Rather than needing to go down another unproven path, it's been in stabilizing the foundation that Minnesota has operated in constructing a winner for 2020.
Early on in the offseason Thad Levine suggested that the front office was aware of the need for impact pitching. Jake Odorizzi was a nice returning addition, and Michael Pineda may have been the best 5th starter in baseball last year. Looking for another arm to slot into the top three of the rotation, there has yet to be that level of acquisition made. I can listen on Rich Hill fitting that bill, but there's a good deal of uncertainty surrounding his efforts, and we won't know his capabilities until June at the earliest.
Dating back to 2015 Hill has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In that time he's posted a 2.91 ERA and 3.43 FIP with a 10.7 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9 total. Not an overpowering arm, he's a magician when it comes to putting the ball past hitters, and that's made him a key cog in a very good Los Angeles Dodgers rotation. The reason he's available however, is because a 40th birthday is upcoming and it's yet to be seen how his elbow responds to recent surgery.
There's obviously a good deal of belief in what Hill has left as evidenced by the Twins monetary commitment to him. Although the guaranteed salary is just $3 million, he can push that total all the way up to $12.5 million by contributing 75 innings or 15 starts. Extrapolate that figure to a full season and you're looking at a guy that would represent a commitment above $24 million.
In Homer Bailey, the addition is a bit different. He doesn't have the high upside that Hill does, and the floor is relatively unremarkable. After being bad for quite a few years, he took considerable steps forward in 2019, and showed very well after being dealt to the Oakland Athletics. His 3.65 FIP was one of the best marks of his career, and his walk rate took a nice dive.
Minnesota's front office had already entrenched Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi at the top of their rotation. Bailey should fit in a the 4th option with Pineda eventually sliding into the five-hole come May. Hill can pitch out of any of the top three spots from June onwards, but banking on his contributions seems a bit lofty given the present opportunity. This is where the final step lies.
Having built the roster backwards this winter, it's in the last touch that Minnesota can truly put this over the top. A corner infielder is still needed, and a Josh Donaldson signing would be monumental. Sure, Marwin Gonzalez can play first base, but removing his utility would seem to limit his upside. Hill and Bailey could round out the rotation, but swinging a trade for an upper-tier arm should still be the goal.
Before these moves were made official my belief was that the Twins were two Opening Day arms away from calling it good. Bailey represents one of them, and the second is still to be determined. The 40 man roster is now full, prospects are aplenty, and opportunity is there for the taking. Falvey and Levine finding a trade of their liking to bolster the top half makes a depth group highlighted by Hill and supplemented by names like Thorpe, Smetlzer, Dobnak, and Graterol all the more exciting.
On it's own, this pair of pistols can't be seen as enough. With a last boost to the top of the ladder, then it's more than worthy of calling the offseason complete.
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Sunday, December 29, 2019
The Diamond that Made the Decade
March 10, 2015 was the debut of Off The Baggy. I had begun writing roughly a year prior and found myself trying out this newfound hobby at a few different blogs. Looking for an outlet to more completely express my own opinions this place was born. As the decade comes to a close, it's worth looking back at how this has all grown.
I’m not sure what my Twitter following was back in those days, but I know that original announcement of another Minnesota Twins blogging alternative was read just 30 times. I’ve now cultivated over 330k pageviews, have a Twitter following north of 12,000, and this piece will be the 875th entry on this site.
None of that is remarkable on its own, but the purpose when starting out on this adventure was always generating engagement. I wasn’t a fan of Twitter initially, failing to understand the point and its usage. Upon a closer look, it became obvious that it was a vehicle for consuming the most pertinent information to my general interests. By constructing a feed geared towards my preferred news I became excited about the quick hitting updates.
When Twitter stopped being enough to share my thoughts and outlook with those I had met, or those I would come to engage with, blogging represented a new opportunity. Being able to write out thought processes in a longform style, having an ability to look back, and in general create a whole new level of engagement, was immediately thrilling for me.
Since those early days I’ve now found myself experiencing opportunities I would’ve never thought possible. Relationships, both from readers and professional athletes alike, have spun up out of nowhere. I’ve had the opportunity to act as a reporter from a Major League clubhouse. I’ve broken news. I’ve written good things, and some less than quality. I’ve been brought on as a regular contributor to the best baseball fan site in the country, and it has never once felt like anything more than an exciting outlet furthering the consumption of baseball.
I have no idea what the next decade looks like for me and blogging, but I do know I’m ecstatic to still have an outlet and a growing population of people willing to share their input. I’d bet heavily on this set of years being more enjoyable from a Twins fan perspective, and with that being the chief source of subject matter, I’m excited to buckle up for the ride.
I’m not sure what my Twitter following was back in those days, but I know that original announcement of another Minnesota Twins blogging alternative was read just 30 times. I’ve now cultivated over 330k pageviews, have a Twitter following north of 12,000, and this piece will be the 875th entry on this site.
None of that is remarkable on its own, but the purpose when starting out on this adventure was always generating engagement. I wasn’t a fan of Twitter initially, failing to understand the point and its usage. Upon a closer look, it became obvious that it was a vehicle for consuming the most pertinent information to my general interests. By constructing a feed geared towards my preferred news I became excited about the quick hitting updates.
When Twitter stopped being enough to share my thoughts and outlook with those I had met, or those I would come to engage with, blogging represented a new opportunity. Being able to write out thought processes in a longform style, having an ability to look back, and in general create a whole new level of engagement, was immediately thrilling for me.
Since those early days I’ve now found myself experiencing opportunities I would’ve never thought possible. Relationships, both from readers and professional athletes alike, have spun up out of nowhere. I’ve had the opportunity to act as a reporter from a Major League clubhouse. I’ve broken news. I’ve written good things, and some less than quality. I’ve been brought on as a regular contributor to the best baseball fan site in the country, and it has never once felt like anything more than an exciting outlet furthering the consumption of baseball.
I have no idea what the next decade looks like for me and blogging, but I do know I’m ecstatic to still have an outlet and a growing population of people willing to share their input. I’d bet heavily on this set of years being more enjoyable from a Twins fan perspective, and with that being the chief source of subject matter, I’m excited to buckle up for the ride.
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
A Twins Offseason Mailbag
It’s been a while since I’ve fielded some questions and
handled a Twins mailbag. With the offseason in full swing, and plenty of irons
in the fire, the Minnesota Twins have provided a good deal of questions for
fans. Doing my best to pick out a handful of them, here’s my take on some of
the discussion.
Are we rumored to sign any position players? I’ve only been watching the pitcher headlines.— Brandon Peterson (@sotakid89) December 17, 2019
The Twins have been tied to a handful of position players,
but really the only role needing to be filled is corner infield. If Sano moves
to first base, then the idea of Josh Donaldson makes a ton of sense. Minnesota
has suggested they feel comfortable starting Marwin at first, but I feel like
that saps a significant amount of his value. Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, or a
recently proposed trade including Daniel Murphy could all be in play. Obviously,
Alex Avila was inked to slot in behind Mitch Garver.
Do you see the @Twins signing a pitcher in free agency?— Benjamin Sherry (@BenLSherry) December 17, 2019
I don’t think there’s any question as to whether Minnesota
will acquire another pitcher. They only uncertainty is what avenue they’ll
choose to go down. Hyun-Jin Ryu is an ideal fit, but he’s about the only “impact”
arm left on the open market. They could swing a trade and then decide to sign
someone like Julio Teheran as an additional bullet.
Who is the most under that radar prospect that could contribute this year?— Card Central (@central_card) December 17, 2019
This was part of my piece for the Twins Prospect Handbook,
but I did offer it up on Twitter so you can have it again here. If there’s a
guy I like to make a Luis Arraez like, out of nowhere impact, it’s Travis
Blankenhorn. He was added to the 40-man this offseason, can play everywhere,
and is close to big league ready.
Have the Twins given up on Romero as a starter or does he get a look for a spot if they don’t sign someone?— Andy S (@AndyS_Denver) December 17, 2019
That shipped has probably sailed, he just hasn’t shown the chops
to stick in the rotation. Unfortunately, we’re bordering on the time when
Romero’s run with the organization ends as well. He’s out of options, so unless
he shows well enough this spring to grab a bullpen spot, he’ll likely be
claimed off waivers by someone else.
What is a logical return for Eddie Rosario straight up? Do you see us trading Rosario?— Shea McGinnity (@SheaMcGinnity) December 17, 2019
If you’ve followed me for any amount of time on Twitter you
know I’m not high on what Rosario brings to the table. I loved him as a
prospect and was onboard a trade for an aggressive promotion schedule. He’s 28
now, has no ability to control the strike zone, plays poor defense, and produces
hollow stat lines. Should the Twins be able to deal him, it would be on the
premise of another level being unlockable. I don’t think he’s good enough to
command much of anything on his own but packaging him with a prospect and
dangling Rosario as an MLB-ready piece could have appear for someone.
Syndergaard for Rosario and what package of prospects?— Brandon (@the10001stLake) December 17, 2019
Funny you should ask; I wrote that exact scenario up at
Twins Daily last night. Give it a read here.
Who would you like the twins to get on the trade market?— Chad Myhre (@myhre_chad) December 17, 2019
My ideal arm from the get-go has been Jon Gray, though I do
like German Marquez quite a bit as well. I’d be in on either Chris Sale or David
Price if the Red Sox want salary relief.
Do you see Sano having consistent success in the future? Or will he continue to fluctuate between the highs and lows?— Alex Haugen (@ajhaugen13) December 17, 2019
You won’t find a stauncher supporter of Miguel Sano’s
ability that myself. I think you’re guaranteed to get a significant power
threat and real home run production if he stays on the field. For all involved,
I think the biggest turning point was creating an environment of accountability
and buy in. This front office has cultivated a strong infrastructure that no
doubt supports its players. Miguel’s problems always stemmed from his level of commitment.
We saw buy in last year, and unless he’s willing to throw that away, I’d imagine
it remains consistent. He won’t be a perennial All-Star, especially if he crosses
the diamond (and eventually moves into the DH role), but a lineup staple seems
like a good bet.
Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew, Kirby Puckett, Joe MauerTwins Mount Rushmore (players only)— Brad Knowles (@BSliceKnowles) December 17, 2019
I did get a good deal of questions regarding timelines for
prospects as well. I do love those, but it’s the subject of my yearly piece for
the Twins Prospect Handbook. That will be available in the coming weeks, so you’ll
have to check that out there.
Friday, December 13, 2019
2020 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects
The Winter Meetings in San Diego have come to a close and
the Minnesota Twins have all sights set on the 2020 Major League Baseball
season. Rocco Baldelli is looking to repeat an extraordinary 2019 performance,
and the big-league club looks to remain one of the best in the majors.
As the reigning AL Central Division champions, the Twins now
have teams gunning for them, and while the offseason still must incorporate
significant talent acquisition, getting contributions from a deep and loaded
farm system is something to be expected.
My top 15 prospects were last updated back in June at the
midway point of the season; you can find those here. Going back over rankings,
here is the full history.
15. Nick Gordon INF
Gordon followed the same narrative he has employed most of
his minor league career. Year two at Triple-A was significantly better than the
first season, but the ceiling looks relatively muted at this point. He’s a
contact hitter with average defensive ability and good speed. There are some
question marks on passion, but talent remains enough for him to be a big league
regular.
14. Matt Canterino RHP
After being taken in the 2nd round of the 2019
draft Canterino quickly established himself in pro ball. He skipped over Elizabethton
and turned in five nice starts at Low-A. He’s got strikeout stuff, and while
the delivery is somewhat quirky, it showed well in his debut. We’ll need to
find out what tweaks are necessary as he rises through the system, but this
looks like a middle of the rotation arm.
13. Wander Javier SS
No one had more anticipation leading up to 2019 than Javier.
After missing all the 2018 season, he finally had a clean bill of health. Now
with the year in the rear view, it’s hard not to suggest health was the only
positive development. Playing 80 games at Cedar Rapids, Javier posted just a
.601 OPS and put up a 116/35 K/BB. He’s got all the talent to be a top 20
prospect in baseball, but he needs a turnaround in 2020 badly.
12. Matt Wallner OF
A big arm but drafted for his bat, Wallner showed out in his
first year of pro ball. He posted an .813 OPS at Elizabethton and swatted six
homers. His time in Cedar Rapids didn’t include gaudy numbers, but it was brief
only getting in 12 games. Owning somewhat of a similar profile to fellow
prospect Brent Rooker, Wallner should be able to use his athleticism to
continue producing at higher levels.
11. Keoni Cavaco SS
Minnesota grabbed Cavaco with the 13th overall
pick and sense him to the GCL. Freshly out of high school, the 18-year-old didn’t
get off too much of a hot start. That said, he ascended draft boards due to
strong national showings, and his tools all jump off the page. The most
important thing that took place for him this year was simply getting engrained
into the pro ball schedule.
10. Ryan Jeffers C
If there’s something the Twins did at the highest level last
year, it was develop catchers. Jeffers took another step forwards behind the
dish, and his bat continues to be an asset. He was promoted to Double-A down
the stretch and generated an .856 OPS. Possessing true home run power as well
as a growing ability as a defender, he’s asserted himself as the best catching
prospect in the system.
9. Blayne Enlow RHP
Things just continue to trend upwards for the Louisiana
native. He made it to High-A Fort Myers and posted a 3.38 ERA across 69.1 IP.
The hope would be that strikeouts would continue to rise with the walks seeing
some decrease. He’s still working on pitching, honing in command, and being able
to do more than simply put the ball behind opposing hitters. There’s a ton of
talent here and he’s a hard enough worker to harness it all.
8. Lewis Thorpe LHP
Thorpe’s big-league debut came as a contributor to the Twins
division title. Although he posted a gaudy 6.18 ERA, it was backed by a 3.47
FIP and was a result of one blow up start against the Indians. He was great in
relief and posted a strong 10.1 K/9. He should be still viewed as a starter,
but he could be a lefty weapon out of the pen if a change is made. Although he
won’t ever be an ace, he looks the part of a certain asset in on the mound.
7. Jhoan Duran RHP
An MLB debut is probably on the horizon for Duran in 2020 if
things go well. He was dominant at High-A Fort Myers and outpitched his 4.86
ERA at Double-A Pensacola. A fireballer with strikeout stuff, this is looking
like a very nice return for the Twins from the Eduardo Escobar trade. Duran
keeps the ball in the yard and does a decent job limiting walks. Another step
up and he could be trending towards a frontline starter.
6. Brent Rooker 1B/OF
Somewhat limited by position and age, Rooker continues to
rake and make it not matter. He could factor in for the Twins at 1B if the
footwork gets in line, but the bat is going to have him up sooner rather than
later. He missed the latter half of the season due to injury, but in 65 games
at Triple-A Rochester he posted a .933 OPS with 14 dingers. Expect him to start
on the farm, but there should be early opportunity for him in the majors.
5. Trevor Larnach OF
After a strong pro debut with an .890 OPS over his first 42
games in 2018, the former Beavers outfielder did nothing to calm his steam last
season. He made it to Double-A Pensacola and posted the same .842 OPS he had in
84 games with High-A Fort Myers. A power threat homered in his first major
league spring training game, Larnach can play all over the outfield and could
push for an opportunity with the Twins before 2020 ends.
4. Jordan Balazovic RHP
Maybe no one in baseball ascended more in 2019 than
Balazovic did. After being a fringe top 100 prospect, it’s hard to see him
anywhere outside the top 50 heading into the upcoming season. He threw 73
innings for Fort Myers and posted a 2.84 ERA. The strikeouts are there, the command
is there, and it all resulted in dominance. We’ll see if he’s tested at the
next level, but the Canadian is looking like a staff ace.
3. Brusdar Graterol RHP
A three-inning cameo was what Graterol got to call his MLB
debut experience. Velocity is his game and that showed as he routinely pumped
triple digits. Strikeouts dipped for him at Double-A Pensacola this year, but
he was enough of an asset to be used out of the pen on a division winning club.
Expect him to go back to starting and be stretch out to begin 2020, but there’s
so much to like here. If a third pitch develops, he could be a dominant
starter. If it doesn’t, he’ll be a lockdown relief talent.
2. Alex Kirilloff OF
Missing time to start the year, Kirilloff took a while to
get going. It resulted in just a .756 OPS in his first look at the Double-A
level, but that shouldn’t cool anything about his trajectory. He’s still a
corner outfielder that oozes athleticism and has an advanced approach at the
dish. He’s a disciplined hitter with plenty of power, and a quick start in 2020
is going to light a fire under the promotion talk.
1. Royce Lewis SS
Much like Kirilloff, Lewis didn’t get off to a quick start
and his bat scuffled all season. He posted just a .661 OPS between Fort Myers
and Pensacola, while being questioned as to whether he’d stick at shortstop.
Heading to the Arizona Fall League, he took home the MVP trophy and challenged
for the batting title after posting a .975 OPS in 22 games. There’s far too
much talent to ever write Lewis off regardless of the sample size. This kid
still looks like an absolute superstar and getting back in a Blue Wahoos
uniform to prove it is likely driving him this winter.
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Spending First or Not at All
Last night the baseball world watched in awe of the contract
that Gerrit Cole was handed by the New York Yankees. He signed the for the
largest AAV and total contract value ever given to a pitcher. New York spending
money isn’t surprising at all, but there’s a tickle down effect and how it
impacts a team like the Twins remains to be seen.
It’s a great thing that the Minnesota Twins have significant
funds and a real opportunity ahead of them. What is less than great is there’s
only so many desirable commodities. When Cole came off the board, teams like
the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels immediately pivoted to the likes of Madison
Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Just hours before, those arms looked like targets
Minnesota may be able to wrangle in. Now, the competition just became more fierce.
This exact scenario is one that we can consider during the
regular season as well. Although many teams like to wait until closer to the
deadline providing an ability to determine their fate, acquiring organizations
obviously benefit by earlier action. We can assume somewhat of a premium is
paid for early swaps, but the desired result could outweigh that cost when it
results in additional wins.
During the offseason games aren’t being immediately
impacted, but the game of musical chairs gets more intense with each spot
pulled from the circle. Zack Wheeler went from reports suggesting he’d accept
something south of $100 million to signing for $18 million north of it. That
contract upped Madison Bumgarner’s ask, and both Stephen Strasburg and Cole
being gone dwindled the list of worthy assets. Does all of that equate to an
opportunity being missed?
We’ll never directly know what contract negotiations sound
like on an individual basis, but early action could seem to hold some weight.
Rather than being worried about setting the market to high, a team could be
sitting pretty having nabbed their desired talent prior to feeling pressure of commodities
being unavailable. A team like the Twins is now faced with the proposition of
outbidding either Los Angeles franchise if Ryu or Bumgarner was their man, and
that creates a higher level of stress than was initially desired.
Although we’re discussing these principles within the realm
of baseball, it’s applicable across so many facets of life. As human beings we’re
all out for our best interests and looking to snipe a deal. Is the coupon at
Target going to save us the most money, or should we save the additional five
miles by going to Walmart and buying it first? The fear of missing out can
cause us to make rash decisions but being comfortable in our evaluations may
afford the opportunity to overlook the result.
I’d imagine Derek Falvey and Thad Levine aren’t going to tip
their hand as to which pitching assets they had ranked highest. Maybe everyone
was lumped together and they truly do not care who winds up in Twins Territory,
a true test of their internal development staff. We can draw some conclusions
or generate educated guesses once all the chips are on the table, but the
waiting and guessing game is all we have for now.
In a vacuum it seems the Twins may be best suited to
approach a high value target with a strong offer and a deadline. Maybe it doesn’t
work that way and maybe they tried, but maybe being the one without a dance
partner at the end of the song isn’t so great either.
Monday, December 9, 2019
Twins Could Trade for a Former Free Agent Target
After bringing back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda the
Minnesota Twins should be turning their focus solely to the top of their
rotation. Madison Bumgarner is the presumed name, but Jon Heyman recently reported that former Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu could be the target. What if
Minnesota wanted to go a different route entirely?
There’s no denying that Bumgarner and Ryu are the best (see:
only) arms left in the second tier of available starters. Bumgarner has been
dissected plenty, and Ryu is essentially the flip side of what he brings to the
table. Injury concerns are abundant and could be an immediate issue. He won’t command
the same length in a contract, but that may not matter if you get burned on the
front end. Ryu is a really nice arm, but there’s plenty of risk regarding how
much time he’ll miss.
For a while I’ve contended the Twins plan this winter should
be to acquire a top-tier arm through free agency while also dealing for an
option with some nice team control. What if it they decided to deal for the
top-tier arm as well, and spend by taking on someone else’s contract?
Enter Yu Darvish.
Minnesota came up a year short in signing Darvish before he
eventually landed a six-year deal with the Chicago Cubs. Thad Levine has
in-depth knowledge of the arm having worked in the front office that originally
signed him in Texas, and the parallels with Ryu run pretty deep.
Chicago’s starter is roughly six months older than Ryu. He
could be had on a four-year, $81 million contract today assuming the Cubs take
on no salary. Although Ryu may not get four years, he’ll probably wind up
somewhere between the $60-75 million range. Darvish was injury and bad a season
ago, and then started slow in 2019. Across his final 20 starts last year he
allowed just a .629 OPS and had a 162/18 K/BB ratio.
When looking at Darvish and Ryu it comes down to what path
you prefer (and if Chicago is truly motivated to move him). Ryu costs dollars
and brings a strong amount of command while lacking the strikeouts. Darvish
would require prospect capital, involves a similar level of injury risk, but
brings arguably the best strikeout numbers Minnesota would have ever employed.
If you’re hoarding prospects, and there’s reason to suggest
that the Twins should be at least until the deadline this season, then spending
money on Ryu or Bumgarner should be the obvious decision. If Darvish is seen as
the superior option to Ryu, then engaging the Cubs in meaningful discussion is
absolutely a conversation worth having.
We’re at the point in roster construction where big moves
are going to involve a certain level of skepticism. Knowing that there’s
nothing certain about any of the options involved, a level of belief will be
required with any asset acquired. I’m not sure which path the Twins will
choose, and I don’t know what the right one is. I am glad we’re at the
crossroads where it becomes a necessity, and these are the real discussions that
we’re having.
Friday, December 6, 2019
Twins Set Up for a Big Splash
So far, the Minnesota Twins have committed something like
$30 million in 2020 contracts to three players this offseason. Two pitchers and
a backup catch mean the 26-man roster is quickly closing in on finality. At
this point, there’s nothing left but the big bang.
Jake Odorizzi returning to the Twins was a great
development. A longer-term deal is probably better than the qualifying offer
situation, but it’s negligible nonetheless. Michael Pineda is a guy that made
sense to QO, and instead Minnesota’s front office gets him on a two-year deal
for less than the one-year tag. Alex Avila replaces Jason Castro as the backup
catcher, and he provides a logical platoon partner for star starter Mitch Garver.
Although Odorizzi and Pineda are returning talents, their
abilities represent some of the best on the market. Disappointment in the lack
of a new name doesn’t hold much weight when the accomplishment of high-quality
assets is the goal. Avila isn’t flashy, but it’s a pretty lofty expectation for
catcher number two being able to accomplish that. In the moves they've made this
front office has gotten the job done and nailed each and every acquisition.
Now comes the big wave.
At this point the Twins have something just shy of $100
million committed to 2019. Needing to push the payroll to no less than $135
million, there’s a significant chunk of change yet to be doled out. A reliever
and corner infielder seem to still be on the docket, but it’s that key starter
still twisting in the wind that has everyone wondering. Maybe it’s Madison
Bumgarner or maybe it’s Hyun Jin Ryu, but no matter who it is, a fat check is
getting cut.
I still think that the Twins are best served by both paying and
trading for starters. The latter isn’t going to jump the bottom line much given
the goal should be a level of youth and team control, which generally has a
muted price tag. No one has ever gotten more in a free agent deal from
Minnesota than Ervin Santana’s 4/$54 million in 2014, but both the total and
AAV should be blitzed by in the immediate future.
There has been somewhat of a back to front way about attacking
this offseason cycle from Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. They’ve shored up the
holes with some of the lesser coveted assets, and now they can focus solely on
positioning of the big guns. It seems to be only a matter of time before it
happens, but the reality of when and not if has started to sink in.
Expect the Twins to land a player with an AAV of $15-20
million yet, and another $15-20 million split on the final assets to follow. It’s
been fun seeing clubs cut checks before Christmas, and just maybe we’ll get
back to the days of the Winter Meetings being some sort of exciting frenzy.
We’ll have to wait a bit longer to see how and what all
transpires, but the monumental move looks to be on the horizon.
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Twins Prospects Taking Over Bowman
Today is one of the biggest releases on the calendar in the
hobby world. As Topps pumps out the latest Bowman Draft product, collectors
feast their eyes on an opportunity to grab autographs and cardboard of the next
great stars. For the Minnesota Twins specifically, a Bowman product hasn’t been
this exciting in a few years.
While collecting sports cards is a hobby, a large contingent
of its appeal is monetarily driven and provides an aspect of gambling. Outside
of buying specific cards you covet on secondary markets, opening boxes or packs
leaves the consumer fully open to chance. With Bowman that reality is
heightened given the nature of the product. Up and coming prospects are put in
their major league uniforms, and for many, it will be their first professional
cards.
From a desire perspective it’s the “1st Bowman”
card that reigns supreme. Mike Trout’s fetch more than $20,000, and while no
one else is on that pedestal, plenty of players routinely top the $1,000 mark
on an annual basis. At the most fundamental level, you’re looking for strong
prospects with youth and talent on their side, with the understanding that
hitters are more desirable than pitchers. In Draft, which features the top
picks from the previous amateur cycle, Minnesota has five key subjects. Let’s
get into what their potential, cardboard and baseball, may look like.
Matt Wallner- OF 1st Round 2019 Age 21
A decent comp within the Twins system would be Brent Rooker,
although the Minnesota native has youth on his side. Wallner pitched as
Southern Miss as well, but he’s being groomed solely for his bat after being
taken in the first round. There’s plenty of power potential here as he set
college records, and his eight professional dingers in 65 games was a nice
start. Wallner is the type of hobby player that sits in the middle. He’ll hit a
boatload of homers, but the position and other abilities leave him with some
bust potential. Given his hometown narrative, he could be coveted by Twins
collectors, but this should remain an affordable chase player.
Keoni Cavaco- SS 1st Round 2019 Age 18
A helium pick for the Twins, Cavaco played in 25 games after
being the 13th overall pick. He didn’t show well owning just a .470
OPS in the GCL, but there’s reason to call that expected. He came into his own
during the showcase circuit, and pro ball is going to be yet another leap.
Minnesota obviously sees all-around promise and continuing his development
should only raise his overall ceiling. In the card world he could soon become
an expensive get. Youth is in his corner, and talent is through the roof. The
minute results follow, there’ll be a clamoring for his cardboard.
Anthony Prato- INF 7th Round 2019 Age 21
Taken after his junior season at Uconn, Prato is an
up-the-middle player that the Twins see promise in. He played in 45 games for
Elizabethton while getting in two at the next level for Cedar Rapids. He’s not
a power guy, but he can swipe bases and hit the gaps. That profile is much more
beneficial on the diamond than it is in the baseball card realm. He could be a solid
utility player at the big-league level, but his cards aren’t going to see much
of a jump unless there’s a shift in projection.
Matt Canterino- SP 2nd Round Age 21
Another Conference USA product, Canterino was taken in a
class with Wallner, who he is very familiar with. Arguably the best projected
player of Minnesota’s 2019 class right now, the pitcher posted a 1.44 ERA
across his first seven professional starts. He’s got a quirky delivery, but he’ll
mow down hitters and has an advanced approach on the mound. There’s middle-of-the-rotation
upside here for Minnesota and that’s great news for the big-league club.
Pitchers aren’t highly collectible however, and that generally mutes prices
significantly. With the volatility of injury or ineffectiveness as well, there
should be no reason this is ever more than an entry level purchase.
Spencer Steer- INF 3rd Round Age 21
After playing for the Oregon Ducks across three seasons,
Steer was selected by the Twins and made quite the impression. His .949 OPS at
Elizabethton earned him a promotion to Cedar Rapids. In 44 games there he owned
a .745 OPS still buoyed by a strong OBP. He’s always controlled the strike zone
well, and he should have some potential to grow into power. Steer isn’t going
to light the world on fire, but he’s probably got the safest floor of anyone
that made it into the product for Minnesota. An affordable autograph with
staying power makes this one worthy of looking into.
Monday, December 2, 2019
2020 IBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot
Once again, it's that time of year and December 1 saw my inbox being hit with the yearly IBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Although this isn't part of the official BBWAA vote to enshrine players in Cooperstown, there's plenty of crossover between voting parties and many of the same principles are the same.
At this time the IBWAA allows voters to select up to 12 candidates. You can find my 2018 ballot here, and my 2019 selections here. As was the case last year, I wound up with a ballot less than the maximum amount. The IBWAA has cleared a backlog of candidates already enshrining Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Although I could've included more players I had previously left off, I chose to stay the course.
When sending my ballot back to the IBWAA I wound up with four holdovers and the expected unanimous selection who makes his first appearance. Here we go:
Curt Schilling: 79.7 fWAR
Bloody sock nonsense aside, Schilling is a three time Cy Young runner-up, and six-time All Star. He struck out 3,116 batters in his career and owns a 3.46 ERA while totaling more than 200 wins. Three World Series rings, an MVP, and a 2.23 postseason ERA do him favors as well. Since voting for him last year, Schilling has made plenty of splashes in the media. He's not well liked off the field, but the character clause is among the most dated pieces of inclusion into the Hall of Fame. On baseball merit alone, he's worthy of the nod.
Derek Jeter 73.0 fWAR
The Yankees Captain enters the ballot as a near-lock for unanimous selection. He had an incredible career with significant accolades in both the regular season and playoffs. Over-glorified in part because of the market in which he played, Jeter will go down as one of the best to ever play the shortstop position. What he lacked on defense he contributed with his bat. The 14-time All-Star and five-time World Series winner will forever be one of the most celebrated Yankees of All-Time.
Scott Rolen 70.1 fWAR
Vastly under appreciated, Rolen started as a Rookie of the Year winner, and went on to tally eight Gold Glove awards. He was a seven time All Star and among the best to ever field the Hot Corner. With an .855 career OPS, his bat more than does enough to supplement what was an exceptional defensive career.
Larry Walker: 68.7 fWAR
Although he played the field plenty, Walker also turned in a nice run spending time in both the infield and outfield. He was the 1997 NL MVP and made five All Star games. His glove netted him seven Gold Gloves and his bat produced three Silver Slugger awards. Walker finished his 17 seasons with 383 homers and drove in over 1,300 runs.
Andruw Jones 67.1 fWAR
Jones's 17 year career is often going to be questioned as he held on for five uninspiring seasons to closer out his time as a big leaguer. That aside, the 10 year stretch from 199-2007 was one for the ages. With 10 Gold Glove's and five All Star appearances, he was easily among the greatest in the game for a decade.
Monday, November 25, 2019
Twins Certainly Giving Fans What They Want
Although we have grown accustomed to slower offseason activity when it comes to Major League Baseball free agency, that doesn't make the reality any more exciting. Sure, the Minnesota Twins have spent $30 million already in retaining Nelson Cruz and Jake Odorizzi, but the true free agents are still out there. Before adding new talent to Twins Territory the franchise gave fans something else they've been clamoring for over the past few years; the baby blue's.
In 2020 Majestic is being replaced as the official Major League Baseball jersey provider. Initially Under Armour was set to take over the contract, but that deal fell through and now the Maryland based company has a whole different set of problems on their hands. At any rate, it's always been Nike that has pushed the boundaries and set the standard in trends. Before Minnesota made any moves, we got to see this in action.
On top of the colorway itself, the Twins are including patches on both sleeves. Minnie and Paul return to the jersey, as well as a 60 year anniversary logo. Both are very well done and should provide some added flair to a product that will likely fly off the shelves at 1 Twins Way. Although the cream alternates were a fan favorite as well, there's nothing more Minnesota Twins baseball than the baby blues.
There has been a slight amount of pushback regarding the chest Swoosh, as opposed to the sleeve Majestic logo. As someone generally opposed to jersey advertisements, this seems hollow at best. The Swoosh is both iconic and aesthetically pleasing. Nike has and will continue to put the right foot forward when it comes to brand design, and there's certainly a company in New York (Hi, Topps!) that will enjoy another uniform patch.
I don't think Nike will be controlling the Pohlad's pocketbook any time soon, but here's to hoping the jerseys are just the first of many new additions to debut at Target Field in the year ahead.
In 2020 Majestic is being replaced as the official Major League Baseball jersey provider. Initially Under Armour was set to take over the contract, but that deal fell through and now the Maryland based company has a whole different set of problems on their hands. At any rate, it's always been Nike that has pushed the boundaries and set the standard in trends. Before Minnesota made any moves, we got to see this in action.
First up it was the San Diego Padres unveiling some new threads. Brown has made cameo appearances on their Swinging Friars jerseys for some time, but it is in 2020 that we'll see it in full force. I remember seeing these come across my timeline on Twitter and thinking that Nike was making a very nice first step.Your city. Your colors. #BrownIsBack and it’s better than ever! pic.twitter.com/ykPW6aW4R7— San Diego Padres (@Padres) November 10, 2019
— MLB (@MLB) November 19, 2019When news leaked that the Milwaukee Brewers would be going back to the ball-in-glove logo for the 2020 season it only made sense there'd be a new configuration. I'm a big fan of the alternate logo as well, depicting an "M" within the state of Wisconsin outline. The absolute highlight of that reveal though was the navy blue offering that set the stage ablaze.
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) November 25, 2019Not to be outdone by their eastern neighbors, the Minnesota Twins have decided to bring back the baby blue alternates for the upcoming season. Arguably the most-talked about jersey, and the one reminiscent of everyone from Kirby Puckett to Kent Hrberk, they'll be worn early and often in the upcoming season. Officially a home and road alternate, there is no stipulations as to where the new uniforms can be donned.
On top of the colorway itself, the Twins are including patches on both sleeves. Minnie and Paul return to the jersey, as well as a 60 year anniversary logo. Both are very well done and should provide some added flair to a product that will likely fly off the shelves at 1 Twins Way. Although the cream alternates were a fan favorite as well, there's nothing more Minnesota Twins baseball than the baby blues.
There has been a slight amount of pushback regarding the chest Swoosh, as opposed to the sleeve Majestic logo. As someone generally opposed to jersey advertisements, this seems hollow at best. The Swoosh is both iconic and aesthetically pleasing. Nike has and will continue to put the right foot forward when it comes to brand design, and there's certainly a company in New York (Hi, Topps!) that will enjoy another uniform patch.
I don't think Nike will be controlling the Pohlad's pocketbook any time soon, but here's to hoping the jerseys are just the first of many new additions to debut at Target Field in the year ahead.
Monday, November 18, 2019
Did Schoop Work for the 2019 Twins?
In early December 2018 the Minnesota Twins found their replacement
for Brian Dozier. With the fan-favorite having been traded to the Los Angeles
Dodgers prior to his free agency, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine needed to find
another second basemen. Replacing Dozier’s pop wouldn’t be easy, but they
tabbed a former All Star to do so when they inked Jonathan Schoop to a one-year
deal. Now with the season behind us we can evaluate how it turned out.
At the time of his signing I wasn’t too terribly interested
in the pact. Dozier provided a significant amount of power, but also displayed
strong on-base skills. For a Twins team also losing Joe Mauer, getting guys that
could fill the basepaths seemed like a must. Schoop owned just a career .294
OBP and he was coming off a poor .682 OPS. After being dealt from the Orioles
to the Brewers for the stretch run, things got even worse.
Obviously, it was the goal of Minnesota to rekindle the 25-year-old
All Star that picked up MVP votes in 2017. He’d played all but two games from
2016-2017 and could be counted on as an everyday contributor. Although range
wasn’t his greatest asset at second base, there was a howitzer attached to his
shoulder and the arm would help to substantially upgrade the defense that
Dozier brought to the position for the Twins.
We didn’t know that Major League Baseball was going to juice
the pill for 2019, but it helped a guy like Schoop to launch dingers at a
relatively significant rate. With so many power hitters around him in the
lineup however, his skillset became somewhat redundant and the emergence of
Luis Arraez made him replaceable. The 23 longballs in just 121 games was plenty
respectable, and the .777 OPS checked in as the second highest mark over the
course of a full big-league season. At the end of the day though, it was the
.304 OBP that likely did him in.
The bulk of his 2019 was spent batting in the final three
spots of the lineup. Even outside of run production lineup positioning, Schoop
became a punchline due to the times in which he would come through. Late and
close situations saw him post just a .658 OPS while he owned just a .618 OPS
with runners in scoring position and two outs. By leverage, he was at his best
(.813 OPS) in the lowest stress scenarios. If you needed a hollow home run it
seemed that Schoop became a lock.
Having just turned 28 there is plenty of runway ahead for
the Curacao native. It obviously won’t be with the Twins, and I’m not entirely
sure he’s rebuilt his value on the back of his 2019 exploits. Power at second
base isn’t exactly guaranteed, but the sport has also shifted much more towards
an on-base production model. It was that skill Minnesota appeared to need most,
and ultimately that downfall that led to him being replaced.
There’s no reason to categorize the $7.5 million Minnesota
handed to Schoop as foolish, but I think we can effectively say it worked out
as planned. That’s a bit more than you’d like for a replaceable asset, but
given the dollars paid to Arraez it should be considered as a wash. Minnesota’s
offense was otherworldly in 2019, and whatever Schoop provided became a
relative footnote.
Thursday, November 14, 2019
Everyone Wins on Odorizzi’s Payday
Prior to the 4pm deadline to decide on the qualifying offer
presented to Jake Odorizzi by the Minnesota Twins, a decision was made. The 2019
All Star made the choice to return to Wes Johnson and Rocco Badelli’s staff on
a one-year pact. This one will be lucrative at $17.8 million, but in the end
all sides win.
In 2020 Odorizzi will be just 30 years old and is coming off
a career year. He had a mechanics breakdown and blister issue mid-season for
the Twins but bookended that performance with excellence. He was tied to draft
pick compensation in this cycle, and though that would have worked in Minnesota’s
favor, it wasn’t going to earn him any favors in the form of a larger paycheck.
Odorizzi could have returned to Minnesota on a multi-year deal (or went
elsewhere) but instead is banking on himself with time to cash in.
The Twins had only Jose Berrios under team control for 2020
among rotation options. Needing to beef up the unit, the front office
immediately suggested that they would be targeting impact pitching this
offseason. Bringing back an All-Star you’re familiar with is hardly a bad place
to start. Knowing that they can also build off this foundation is more a relief
than having four uncertainties.
I still believe that the Twins need to sign someone better
than Berrios and Odorizzi, while acquiring a second arm with a value able to
slot in between them. The open market has ample arms that can be paid to top
the rotation, and dangling pieces to acquire that 3rd starter makes
a whole lot of sense.
When the dust settles, we’ll know how this decision worked
out for both sides. Odorizzi is hoping to turn a second strong performance into
a three or four year deal that would push over $50 million. If he’s able to put
up a repeat performance working with coaches he’s grown accustomed to, then
there’s no denying the payday will come. Given the spending flexibility
Minnesota has, even the large AAV does little to hurt their overall building
blueprint for 2020. The player is taking all the risk here, and both sides come
up looking rosy.
Welcome back to Twins Territory Jake, it’s like you never
left.
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Will Twins Double Down on Extension Excellence?
It hasn’t quite been a year, and unfortunately, we aren’t
yet to the point of embarking upon Fort Myers for Spring Training, but the
Minnesota Twins signed Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to contract extensions last
offseason. Both deals felt incredibly team friendly at the time, but Ozzie
Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. already had preconditioned us for those feelings.
Now after the first season into their extensions with the Twins, Kepler and
Polanco have already paid for themselves.
For two straight seasons the Twins were looking for Kepler
to take the next step forward. First, he didn’t hit lefties, and then he didn’t
hit righties. After toiling to the tune of a low .700 OPS for his first three
big league seasons, the German native broke out with an .855 OPS in 2019. His
36 home runs nearly surpassed the previous two seasons combined, and he took on
a bigger role than one may have ever predicted.
Like his teammate and extension partner, Jorge Polanco
finally arrived as well. There were glimpses of the bat, and that was always
his calling card, but inconsistent playing time over his first three years didn’t
result in ideal production. Getting into 153 games during 2019, Polanco
parlayed the exposure into an .841 OPS that was only watered down by some late
season slumping. He finished with a .295 average and was in contention for a
batting title through June.
When the dust settled Kepler had accumulated 4.4 fWAR which
Fangraphs estimates being worth $35.3 million. Polanco posted a 4.0 fWAR, valuing
his production at $32.3 million. Both players, in the first years of their $35
and $25 million extensions respectively, outproduced the total contract
valuation. It’s that sort of performance that Minnesota was undoubtedly hoping
for when offering up both deals, and although Polanco’s sagged in part because
of a previous suspension, the reward was an immediate payday in exchange for
belief of future production.
This offseason the Twins opportunities are less certain.
Miguel Sano looks the part of a star slugger, but his defensive acumen leaves
much to be desired. Derek Falvey could instead choose to go year-to-year on
that type of player, leaving the flexibility to move on if and when things hit
the skids. Eddie Rosario is a power hitter that does little else at the plate,
and he looks more destined to be jettisoned than act as a future cog in this
wheel. It’s Jose Berrios that’s most desirable to lock down, but does a guy
knocking on the door of the upper tier really want to give away his earning
potential?
Then there’s the case of Byron Buxton, a transcendent talent
that only remains in the way of himself. Injury has cost him time on the field,
and that’s really been the only downfall over the course of his career. Even
when the offense lagged behind the exceptional fielding, he was so good in
center that it allowed for his lackluster production at the plate to be
overlooked. If there’s any sort of belief in keeping him on the field consistently,
then 2019 was the embodiment of a turned corner and complete player ready to
blast off. Like Berrios, Buxton has plenty of future earnings at stake here,
but the injury situation could cloud the future before it ever arrives.
Minnesota’s front office made conscious decisions when it
came to wrapping up foundational pieces last offseason, and they nailed both.
They’ll have similar opportunities this time around, and being flush with cash,
there’s little reason for them not to support the belief in their own
assessments. These things take two sides to consummate any action, but the
Twins certainly would love to come up on the winnings side in year one for the
second season in a row.
Monday, November 4, 2019
Planning the Twins Winter Moves
Today officially marks the beginning of free agency for the
2020 Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins have some serious work
to do with four-fifths of their starting rotation up for grabs, and a 100-win
season to replicate. Rocco Baldelli will be angling for a second straight AL
Central Division title, and the goal for the foreseeable future in Twins
Territory will be Postseason berths.
While working through a full blueprint to outline a 25-man
roster for the Twins I found myself getting hung up on a few key areas. I think
we’re going to see a handful of moves that may come as a surprise, and rather
than trying to pinpoint each, a better plan of action seemed to come with a top
down view. While remaining somewhat specific, here’s how I’d handle things
going into 2020:
Start with the Rotation:
Jose Berrios is locked in. I’d try to get him extended on a long-term
deal again. Minnesota has approached his camp previously, but talks have not
moved forward. He’s a few steps from a Cy Young arm, and at that point, he won’t
have interest in avoiding the open market. Even if the Twins offer Gerrit Cole
and Stephen Strasburg significantly over market rate, I’d imagine both say no.
Falvey should be all in on both arms, but the lure of a bigger market or home
on the west coast probably proves too strong. This is where you pivot.
Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher available in the Twins wheelhouse,
and he’s a very good one. Make him a priority and get that done as soon as
possible. Two 2019 options should also be leveraged as possible returnees.
Minnesota should offer both Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda a qualifying
offer. The former could turn that into a two or three year deal while the later
could then be had at roughly $13 million accounting for his remaining
suspension.
The final rotation spot would then be filled out by a trade.
There’s too much firepower on the Twins farm not to execute something, and
Eddie Rosario represents an expendable big-league asset. Utilize the depth to
go and get someone like Jon Gray, Joe Musgrove, or Matt Boyd. Aiming even
higher to a proven commodity as Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson suggested might be
interesting as well.
Add to the Lineup:
It’s fair to assume that regression is going to hit for the
2020 Twins. What’s also worth noting is that any changes to the baseball will
have a widespread impact. Minnesota hit bombas because of a strong plate
approach, and that will play regardless of what composition the baseball encompasses.
That being said, a great deterrent to a step backwards offensively is adding
more offense.
The Twins have a boatload, something like $70 million, to
spend this offseason. With Wheeler being the likely high-water mark on the
mound, there’s going to be plenty to go around. Instead of overpaying similar
candidates on the bump, choose the guy(s) that makes the most financial sense
add allocate the funds towards high impact help elsewhere.
I’ve talked myself into this, look at Anthony Rendon. The
Twins could bring back C.J. Cron, and barring better wrist health, he should
see a nice boost. They could also move Miguel Sano across the diamond and angle
for a substantial upgrade at the hot corner with some intriguing options.
Rendon is an MVP-type superstar and has plenty of good years ahead of him. I’m
not as keen on 34-year-old Josh Donaldson as I was last year, because he’ll now
want a multi-year deal, but that’s not a bad option either. If the Cubs are
truly inclined to move Kris Bryant, and there’s a belief in his health, I’d
absolutely explore that scenario as well. At the end of the day it comes down
to this; if you can’t spend the money on pitching, you need to spend it
elsewhere and aiming high is far better than adding quantity.
Rounding out the offense would include an additional
outfielder and a catcher. Whether or not Eddie Rosario is traded a guy that
could be had on a one-year deal makes sense. I like the idea of Corey Dickerson
as a corner outfielder with on-base skills and some pop. It doesn’t hurt that
he’s also a very strong defender, which is a facet of the game Minnesota needs
to improve on. Cameron Maybin is also somewhat intriguing with the ability to
play some centerfield.
Behind the plate you operate with Mitch Garver as the
starter. He needs to play more often than he did in 2019, but there could be a
decent amount of truth to him being at his best with significant rest. Pairing
him with a nice defender that can also hit makes sense and going the route of
former Houston Astro Robinson Chirinos is to my liking. He’s got good on base
skills, hits better than a traditional catcher, and isn’t a hack behind the
plate.
Shore up the Bullpen:
Coming out of the winter and into Spring Training there was
nothing more problematic than Minnesota’s bullpen. It looked the part of a dumpster
fire that was going to struggle getting anyone out. Then the development of
some internal arms took place and Baldelli’s group was one of the best in
baseball down the stretch. Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May have all
worked their way into a circle of trust. Wes Johnson will still need three or
four other arms to complete the group, however.
Rather than pushing Lewis Thorpe or Brusdar Graterol to the
pen full time, bringing in some hired guns is the way to go. Sergio Romo should
be welcomed back, but there’s no reason to pigeonhole that move either. Drew
Pomeranz could be a nice second lefty, and any number of arms make sense to
round out the group. Will Smith is the cream of the crop, but Will Harris and Jake
Diekman types have purpose as well.
To summarize how I’d plan I’ll say this: For the first time
in a while, spend. The window is open, you know what you have, and the prospect
depth is coming close to maturation. Whether you can land the big fish on the
mound or not is always going to be tough with plenty of suitors and a
less-than-ideal-destination, but those resources need to go elsewhere then. Minnesota
should clear $140 million in payroll this winter, and $150 million is far from
unrealistic. Do as much as you can on the mound, and then look to make the
additional impact throughout the roster.
Minnesota is no longer in a wait and see mode. The capability
of youth has been understood, the veterans have provided plenty of production,
and the circumstances are now on your side. There’s been complaints for years
that have been somewhat misguided without that trifecta being a reality. In
2020, there’s nothing holding the organization back but itself, and it’s time
to remove that barrier.
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Opening Up the Twins 40 Man Roster
The 2019 Major League Baseball season officially comes to an
end tonight as the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros wrap up game seven
of the World Series. As the league calendar switches over to 2020 there will be
significant roster shuffling. For the Minnesota Twins that already began
yesterday, but the front office isn’t close to done when it comes to a 40-man
overhaul.
After getting run with the big-league club in September the
Twins outrighted a trio of talent off the 40 man yesterday. Outfielders Ian
Miller and Ryan LaMarre were jettisoned, and they were joined by utility infielder
Ronald Torreyes. With both Byron Buxton and Sean Poppen still on the 60-day IL
and needing cleared spots, the Twins effectively have 39 of 40 holes filled.
Add in the claiming of Matt Wisler and you’ve got a full boat.
There’s a crop of free agents that will be moving on from
Minnesota, and then there’s a handful of arbitration and pre-arbitration guys
that decisions will need to be made on. Here’s how they could all turn out:
Free Agents: Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Sergio Romo, Jason Castro,
Jonathan Schoop
The only name missing from this group is Michael Pineda, who
is also set to become a free agent. With his suspension however, he was
immediately removed from the 40 man, and would not count against it for any
acquiring team until he is reinstated. Gibson is obviously the longest tenured
of this group, and it’ll be weird for both the organization and the player to
part after a decade together. Despite how it ended, there were some significant
high points, and no one could have represented Twins Territory better. Castro
split time with Mitch Garver under Rocco Baldelli this season, and if his body
will hold up, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be looking for a starting gig
somewhere.
Both Schoop and Romo made quick cameos for the Twins. The
former was acquired at the trade deadline while the latter was had on a one-year
deal. Romo has certain appeal to return as both a good pitcher and strong
clubhouse presence, while Schoop would seem to be redundant after the emergence
of Luis Arraez.
I'd certainly like to see Minnesota hand Odorizzi a qualifying offer and look to work out a two-year deal. If he's the second or third starting rotation piece they add this offseason, then you'd have to feel pretty good about the group as a whole.
I'd certainly like to see Minnesota hand Odorizzi a qualifying offer and look to work out a two-year deal. If he's the second or third starting rotation piece they add this offseason, then you'd have to feel pretty good about the group as a whole.
Non-Tender: Sam Dyson, C.J. Cron
Of these two one is a guarantee while the other is far from
it. Minnesota dealt for the best reliever at the deadline in Dyson, and instead
of a shutdown arm, they got a guy who hid injury (or his former team did) and
sapped an asset for nothing. Dyson has one more year of arbitration, and while
it would have been great to feel his impact, the only thing Minnesota felt is the
bomb he dropped on them after coming here.
What happens to C.J. Cron is largely dependent on how the
Twins view Miguel Sano. The former Rays and Angels first basemen had a fine
year, and especially so considering the sapped power from his thumb injury. If Sano
is moving across the diamond or a better third basemen is a target, then there’s
no need to tender Cron at something near $8 million. If he comes back, there’s
also nothing wrong with going that route, and assuming the thumb is back to
100%, he’s a good bet to put up even better numbers in 2020.
Decline Option: Martin Perez
There was a time in 2019 when Perez’s option for 2020 looked
certain to be picked up, then May 30th happened. Going into that
start against the Rays Perez owned a 2.95 ERA and appeared to be the poster
child for a Twins influenced fix. He was shelled for six runs in 2.2 IP and
owned a 6.29 ERA over his final 21 starts. Left off the Postseason roster the
Twins will almost certainly pay the $500k buyout as opposed to the $7.5 million
salary next season.
Outright: Trevor Hildenberger, Kohl Stewart
When outrighting a player off the 40-man you’re considering
a certain level of opportunity cost. Neither Hildenberger nor Stewart need to
go anywhere, but there’s a pretty compelling argument that they both should.
Once a pen stalwart for Paul Molitor, Hildy seemed to be ridden into the ground
and then left for dead. He came back from Triple-A last year but was every bit
as ineffective and has now posted a 6.35 ERA in his last 89.1 major league
innings. For a sidearmer that isn’t fooling anyone, it’s simply not going to cut
it.
Last season the Twins parted ways with former first round pick
Tyler Jay. He never made it to the big leagues, and while Stewart has, this
appears to be his time. There’s plenty of better internal options, and
Minnesota’s focus this offseason is going to be on pitching. Stewart continued down
a path his minor league numbers suggested in that he simply can’t strike anyone
out, and the stuff wasn’t good enough to play at the highest level.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
The Twins Ideal Adds on the Trade Market
If the Minnesota Twins are going to put a focus on adding
impact pitching this offseason, the reality is they’ll need to venture outside
of free agency to accomplish their goals. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg
represent commodities rarely seen on the open market, and they both could be
called home to California. I definitely am in on making Zack Wheeler an offer
he can’t turn down, but things get messy from there. With prospect capital and
some expendable big leaguers, the time to swing a deal appears ideal as well.
There’s little reason for any team to part with their best
pitcher regardless of current situation. Luis Castillo is an absolute stud in
Cincinnati, but the Reds just made a move to get Trevor Bauer last season.
Instead of targeting the slam dunk, Minnesota needs to go and find their version
of Cole or Justin Verlander or follow the White Sox footsteps in acquiring a
guy like Lucas Giolito. All those arms are among the best in the game, but that
same definition couldn’t be applied when they switched teams.
So, where do the Twins turn their focus?
Colorado Rockies- Jon Gray or German Marquez
Under team control for two more seasons, Gray was the third overall
pick in the 2013 draft. He has sandwiched two strong seasons around a clunker
over the course of the last three. The strikeouts are there, and so too is the
velocity. Walks are a bit problematic, and the longball has hurt him while
playing at Coors Field. Get him to Target Field and let Wes Johnson work some
magic.
A teammate of Gray, German Marquez is also very intriguing.
He’s younger, under team control for a year longer, and arguably has the better
profile. Another strikeout arm, who possesses strong command, has been bit heavily
by the longball in Colorado. Despite the 4.76 ERA in 2019, Marquez owned a 3.54
xFIP which followed up a 3.10 mark the year prior. He was my dark horse Cy
Young pick this season, and he absolutely looked the part for stretches.
Pittsburgh Pirates- Joe Musgrove
Another former first round pick, Musgrove would be on his
third team if dealt, but he too is not a free agent until 2023. He’s never
posted a sub 4.00 ERA and the K/9 has never entered 9.0 territory. He doesn’t
issue many walks, is moderate with the home run, and could be just a few tweaks
from the next step. His hard-hit rate spiked to a career worst 37% this season,
but he’s never generated more whiffs. If the Twins believe in their pitching infrastructure,
here’s another arm they could salivate about working with.
Detroit Tigers- Matthew Boyd
The end result couldn’t be further from where he was at the
midway point, but Boyd’s final 11.6 K/9 is nasty. He has yet to put it together
over the course of a full season, but 2019 was definitely the closest he’s
been, and the 3.88 xFIP tells a fairer story. You may pay a premium dealing
within the division, but Detroit isn’t going to be good before Boyd hits free
agency in 2023. He was dangled at the deadline, and the winter may provide more
opportunity.
Atlanta Braves- Max Fried or Mike Foltynewicz
Brian Snitker has his ace in the form of Mike Soroka. This
team is going to be good for a while, but they also have some very real holes
to fill. Fried would have a massive price tag being under team control through
2024, but his first full season as a starter went well. The 4.02 ERA was backed
by a 3.72 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. He has strikeout stuff and was able to take a big
step forward in the command department.
Having been demoted to Triple-A, and roughed up in his final
Postseason appearance, Mike Foltynewicz may benefit from a change of scenery.
After generating Cy Young votes a season ago, he put up a 4.54 ERA in 2019.
After heading to the farm with a 6.37 mark through June, Folty returned to the
tune of a 2.65 ERA across his final 10 starts. If there’s an opportunity to
take advantage here, Minnesota would be wise to do so.
Arizona Diamondbacks- Robbie Ray
Another guy that was talked about heavily during the
deadline, Ray is entering the final year of arbitration eligibility. He’s
posted a 12.0 K/9 or better for the past three seasons, and while durability
concerns persist, he’s electric while on the bump. The walk and home run rates
aren’t pretty, but given the length of his contract, he could also have one of
the lower acquisition costs across moveable assets. This Twins front office is
also familiar with Arizona having swung the Eduardo Escobar deal a couple of
seasons ago.
Monday, October 21, 2019
Adding an Outfielder for the 2020 Twins
The Minnesota Twins are going to have significant moves to
make this offseason. Rather than being measured by the number of acquisitions,
it is going to be the impact that each players makes to tell the story. The
front office has already suggested that impact pitching is going to be the
focus, but what about making sure all the grass is covered in the outfield?
Byron Buxton was hurt again, and Eddie Rosario may be on the move. Where does
that leave Rocco Baldelli?
In 2019 the Twins were very deep in the outfield, until they
weren’t. With Rosario, Buxton, and Max Kepler all healthy the outfield was among
the best in baseball. Unfortunately, that trio was separated a significant
amount of time this last season, and when Buxton was shelved, the strain was
felt by the German and eventually led to injury. So rather then signing a good
amount of veteran depth to fill out the Triple-A roster in case of emergency,
having more than just Jake Cave to turn to could be a logical decision.
Should the Twins move on from a starter, Rosario in this
case, signing a free agent to a one-year deal that allows flexibility for a
prospect like Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff to take over makes sense.
Fortunately, there’s a few options I like:
Corey Dickerson
The former Tampa Bay Rays Gold Glover was DFA’d following an
All-Star season in 2017. He then won a Gold Glove in 2019 and was dealt from
Pittsburgh to Philadelphia last season. He’s only an option on the corners, but
his career .823 OPS will play in any big-league lineup. Dealing with injury for
much of the season, Dickerson played just 78 games. He made $8.5 million in
2019 and could be looking for an opportunity to establish health and generate
one more payday. He’ll be 31 next year.
Matt Joyce
I’m not in love with this option, but Joyce is a corner
outfielders that gets on base at a ridiculous clip. He played in 129 games for
the Braves this season and posted a .408 OBP. Power isn’t really part of his
game anymore, and he’s going to be 35 years old. He made just $1.25 million in
2019 though and would represent a very replaceable veteran commodity should
Larnach or Kirilloff force Minnesota’s hand early.
Cameron Maybin
Of the veteran types, this is probably my favorite option.
Although Maybin will be 33 and isn’t the same speedster he once was, he can
play all three outfield spots and that takes a significant load off the manager’s
shoulders. He had to wait for an opportunity but got 82 games in with the
Yankees and posted a career best .858 OPS (and 11 HRs). That could come down due
to the expected ball changes, but he’s a defensive commodity you can rely on.
Avisail Garcia
Of the names on the list, Garcia is the only one certain to be
seeking a long-term deal. The days of Mini Miggy are long gone, but with a .796
OPS at 28-years-old he should be seeking a consistent home. Garcia was an All
Star two years ago with the White Sox, but his .885 OPS hasn’t been replicated
either of the past two years. He’d be a fine replacement on the corners for the
Twins and is arguably a depth upgrade as well. Even on a multi-year deal the
bank isn’t getting broken here.
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