Byron Buxton And The Future

On June 14, 2015, the Minnesota Twins embarked on what they hoped would be a monumental day in the history of the franchise. Drafted 2nd overall in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, Bryon Buxton was finally a member of the Twins active roster. Billed as baseball's best prospect, the expectations were through the roof. Now three months into his career, things haven't gone as expected.

Or maybe they have.

As of this writing, Buxton has played in 34 games, and slashed a paltry .202/.242/.272. He has one triple, six doubles, and just 23 hits in 114 at bats. He's struck out 39 times while drawing only five free bases. To put it lightly, the offensive output has been less than stellar. What is hasn't been though is unexpected.

Buxton tore up the farm system. He's a career .301/.383/.489 hitter across four seasons, and he batted .400/.441/.545 in 13 games at the Triple-A level this season. That's indicative more of what he's capable of than it is what should have been expected. Coming to the big leagues, Buxton was a Gold Glove caliber defender from the onset, but the bat was going to take some time.

At this point, Buxton's offensive repertoire is a direct reflection of his speed. He is putting the ball on the ground at a 47.8% rate as well as owning a 21.2 infield hit percentage. On top of needing to adjust to big league pitching, Buxton is doing himself few favors in regards to the strike zone. Swinging at 32.3% of pitches outside of the zone, he's chasing far too often. Reflected in his 69.3% contact rate, Buxton has room to improve when it comes to putting his pitch in play.

Aside from the numbers, Buxton has always been expected to hit, in time. Given a 70 grade by MLB.com scouts, he's regarded as close to a sure thing at the plate. In time, the tools should absolutely become reality, and allow the former number one prospect to provide plus value at the plate. For now, that value is evidenced in other aspects.

Not going well at the plate, it's integral that Buxton find himself playing (and contributing) in the field often. Thus far, he's done exactly that. Playing 283 defensive innings in centerfield for the Twins, Buxton has already been worth 4 DRS (defensive runs saved). As things stand, Buxton would be on pace for 21 DRS over the course of 162 games. That mark would trail only Kevin Kiermaier's 38 this season for centerfielders in all of baseball.

In his first taste with the Twins, Buxton has not only gained extremely valuable experience, but he's given insight of what is, and what will be. Right now, a raw hitter and an incredibly good defender, Buxton is only half of the puzzle. What he should be expected to do, is draw his hitting ability more closer to that he has displayed with his glove.

Looking forward, Buxton's floor might be something like a better version of Mike Cameron. A guy that was a career .249/.338/.444 hitter and compiled a 50.7 fWAR across 16 seasons. Both offensively and defensively, Buxton should be superior at his worst. Looking at a doomsday scenario though, the Twins could do much worse. Speculating about the ceiling probably isn't fair. Buxton remains an incredible athlete and should be expected to take significant strides forward in 2016. Reaching his potential, he could find himself being a perennial All Star.

Keeping things in perspective, it's best to remember that what Buxton is providing the Twins in 2015 is far less important than what the Twins are providing him. Allowing the floor to be raised, Buxton's future is only a glimmer at this point, but it still remains plenty bright.

The Twins Silent Star

This season, the Minnesota Twins have risen well above expectations. More likely to lose 90 games than be a playoff team, Paul Molitor has his squad in a very unexpected position. Getting key contributions from big names like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, the Twins offense has been rolling of late. There's another star that has not gotten near the publicity deserved however.

Trevor Plouffe.

Thought of as a placeholder at third base until Sano forced a position changed for either himself or Plouffe, it has been Trevor who has evolved into a lunch-pail type player. After a breakout season in 2014, Plouffe has followed it up by coming to the field every day and simply getting it done. Putting substantial credibility into his impressive 2014 campaign, Plouffe is on pace for plenty of career highs this season.

Through 135 games (which is just one shy of his career high) Plouffe owns a .250/.313/.445 slash line. To this point, the Twins third-basemen has 127 hits, 31 doubles, four triples, 20 home runs, 79 runs batted in, and 44 walks. Per FanGraphs, Plouffe owns a 2.6 fWAR the second highest mark of his career.

Looking at detractors, the biggest slide has been Plouffe's defensive prowess. A year after posting a career best 6 DRS (defensive runs saved) at the hot corner, he owns a -2 mark this season. Plouffe's UZR (ultimate zone rating) has also taken a hit falling from 6.7 a year ago to just 2.7 this season. Effectively however, that's where the negatives end.

On pace to accumulate new career highs in games played, runs, hits, triples (already accomplished), runs batted in, and potentially walks and home runs, 2015 has been a smashing success. The 29 year-old former first round pick has begun to enter his prime, and the Twins are better for it. With Dozier and Sano slotting in close to him in the lineup, it has been Plouffe that has provided the stability.

Going forward, much has been made about the eventual position change that either Plouffe or Sano will need to make. Despite Plouffe having played everything but catcher, pitcher, and centerfield at the major league level, that decision doesn't need to be made yet. Plouffe can spell Joe Mauer when he needs to, and Sano can operate as the team's primary designated hitter. No matter how Molitor chooses to utilize Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer, there's room for each in the foreseeable future.

Knowing what Plouffe brings to the Twins, it's probably best for Minnesota to be looking to pay him, rather than to trade him. Currently signed on a one-year $4.8 million deal, arbitration will become expensive in 2016. Not a free agent until 2018, Minnesota could do right by Plouffe and save themselves some money by buying out the next two years of arbitration while grabbing a year of free agency in the process.

At 32 years-old in 2018, Plouffe should still be expected to be roughly the same player he currently is. Minnesota has been the beneficiary of a California kid who has gotten it done in a big way the last two seasons. It's now time to make sure he's part of the future as well.

The Twins Second Ortiz

Recently, David Ortiz launched his 500th HR for the Boston Red Sox. In doing so, he has entered into one of baseball's sacred number territories. Joining a group that is supposed to all but guarantee Hall of Fame admittance, Ortiz's story began in Minnesota. With the career coming to an end, another Twins prospect may be following in similar footsteps.

At 21 years-old, Ortiz made his major league debut for the Twins. A power hitting prospect, Ortiz was expected to hold down the heart of the lineup for years to come. In his first 15 games, he slashed .327/.353/.449 with one home run, and six runs batted in. Still needing to grow into his frame, it was a promising start for what was always expected to be more.

Fast forward six seasons, and Ortiz had compiled a .266/.348/.461 slash line for Minnesota. His 58 home runs and 238 RBI averaged out to just 9.6 and 39.6 per year respectively. For a guy who left plenty to be desired in the field, the paltry numbers weren't going to help a Twins team looking to turn the corner. Terry Ryan made the decision to hand Ortiz his walking papers.

In the 13 seasons since, Ortiz has gone on to become "Big Papi" for the Boston Red Sox. He's compiled a .289/.385/.566 slash line and has launched 442 homers with 1,390 runs batted in. Ortiz launched 30 or more home runs nine times in that span, and has been at the heart of three World Series titles.

Forget the fact that Ortiz likely won't be getting his due in Cooperstown any time soon (he can thank PEDs for that), or that he's tortured the Twins throughout his career. Minnesota may be in a position to watch it unfold all over again.

At the age of 22, back in 2013, Minnesota saw the debut of Venezuelan outfielder Oswaldo Arcia. Like Ortiz, Arcia was an expected power threat that couldn't be much more than a defensive liability. In his first 219 games for Minnesota, Arcia has slashed .243/.305/.437. The Twins have seen 36 home runs from Arcia, and he's driven in 108 runs, those are numbers Minnesota would have liked to see in a single year.

Outside of the defensive issues, Arcia has a couple of other pretty large detractors working against him. Inside of the batter's box, Arcia owns a career 259/58 K/BB ratio. That equates to roughly 4.5 strikeouts per walks, and striking out in about one-third of his at bats. Then there's the attitude problems. A guy who rarely seems to show max effort, and often reacts emotionally, Minnesota has failed to draw his full potential.

Now with 2015 coming to a close, and 2016 being a pivotal point, Terry Ryan will have to decide his plan of action.

Arcia enters 2016 out of options. Should he start the season with the Twins, Minnesota would have to expose him to waivers in sending him to the farm. On a team that already is going to have Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario in the outfield, Arcia is going to struggle to find time. Should he play in a reserve role, Arcia will then have his maturity and resolve tested.

As things stand, the path Arcia has traveled has somewhat resembled Ortiz's career for the Twins. While I'm not ready to say Arcia figures it out for someone else, I'm also not sure I'd be ok with Terry Ryan finding out. The last player the Twins let get away should be someday preparing a Hall of Fame speech, the next one they may let get away has a crossroads approaching very soon.

Torii's Sunset Ride Has Begun

In the middle of the cold Minnesota winter, Terry Ryan made his first splash during the hot stove period in inking fan-favorite Torii Hunter to a one-year $10.5 million contract. At the time of the signing, I hated the move. While the personnel that influenced parts of that opinion has changed drastically since, bringing Torii back for 2016 should be met with the same amount of distaste.

At 40 years old coming into 2015, expectations needed to be admittedly muted for the former Gold Glove award winner. No better a defender than the supplanted Oswaldo Arcia at this point in his career, Minnesota was paying a hefty chunk of change for a "leadership" characteristic. Whether that leadership has paid off or not is unquantifiable. In his first press conference, Torii got heated with local media. He then redeemed himself by rejuvenating a clubhouse with post-victory dance celebrations. There's been a bit of both, but it's been arguably more bad than good.

What Torii has given the Twins on the field is a whole different story however.

To date in 2015, Hunter has played 118 games, the lowest total since his age 33 season (119 for the Angels). He's slashed just .234/.290/.399 with 18 home runs (the most since 2011) and 64 RBI. Prior to the All Star Break, Hunter's .257/.312/.444 line with 14 HR and 49 RBI looked the part of a middle-aged, producer in the outfield. Then there came the decline. Since August 1st, Hunter has been given 25 starts, slashing just .165/.238/.275 and given the Twins just six extra base hits.

Offensively, it has been easy to see the stark contrast in Hunter's first and second half of his 2015 season. On the defensive side, things haven't been pretty either, but the performance (or lack thereof) has been a consistent negative. In 2015, Hunter has been worth -11 DRS (defensive runs saved) as well as a -1.7 UZ (ultimate zone rating), and -2.6 UZR/150. His four errors are the second highest total of his career, despite playing in the third lowest amount of games. To sum it up, the perceived defensive liability has been every bit as was imagined.

Coming into the 2015 season, Minnesota and Terry Ryan had a pass in the debatable move of Hunter's acquisition. Veteran leadership was no doubt a needed commodity, and the outfield had plenty of question marks on it's own. In 2016, Minnesota will still remain somewhat light on the veteran aspect of things, but the outfield is now a position of strength, sans Hunter.

There's no logical way for Hunter to expect the same kind of payday he received this season, but even at a massive discount, there's a bigger issue at play. Fangraphs quantifies Hunter's worth in 2015 at $700k (he's been worth just 0.1fWAR). While $700k is nothing in terms of a contract, the roster spot is worth so much more to the Twins. On a big league team with options, Hunter occupying one of them doesn't seem like a good decision.

A year from now, Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, and some combination of Max Kepler, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kennys Vargas will make up the outfield and designated hitter contingent for the Twins. With six of the 25 roster spots being spoken for with that grouping, adding Hunter to that equation seems like a tough ask. It's a tough decision for a team paying homage to a former great, but moving forward, it's an easy ask.

Hunter's 2015 struggles as the season comes to a close help to usher in the change. It doesn't need to be a solid boot out the door, but Hunter's sunset ride can continue to take place. 2015 has been a season of exceeded expectations, and while the veteran leadership portion has been of benefit, things begin and end there.

Someday Torii Hunter be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame, and maybe have his number retired. The post playing days beginning in 2016 will help to usher in that next phase. Hunter's performance has started the process, and the Twins must follow suit.

Gardy The Great Flipping Sides

It was inevitable right? I mean after all, how long could the 57 year-old Gardenhire sit down in Florida puffing on stogies? Eventually, the former Minnesota Twins manager was going to find a new job, and it would be much to the chagrin of Twins Territory. What might have been unexpected is that said new job would come within the AL Central and have Gardy staring into the Twins dugout from the other side.

That scenario looks very much like it will come to fruition at this point.

It was reported by the Detroit Free Press this morning that Detroit Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus was managing his final few games. Compiling a 143-127 record across just under two seasons, Ausmus has drawn the ire of Tigers owner Mike Illitch. The Little Caesar's entrepreneurial mogul has decided that former team President Dave Dombrowski isn't the only one needing to go in 2015. Ausmus is set to be relieved of his duties following the season.

With the managerial opening for the Tigers being announced this morning, information has been relatively fluid. One of the first names brought up as a potential successor was Gardenhire's. Then reports began to surface that the former Twins skipper was not only the front-runner, but likely the already decided upon choice.

Gardenhire took the 2015 season off after being replaced by Paul Molitor following the end of a fourth straight 90 loss season in 2014. Despite showing up at Twins spring training this season, Gardenhire has laid low and flown under the radar. Linked to the Miami Marlins job following the firing of Mike Redmond, Gardenhire stayed put. Now with the American League opening presented to him, and in the Central division nonetheless, it may be time to return to the dugout.

There was never any doubt that Gardenhire would once again manage, but a National League team always seemed to be an odd connection. The Marlins job was never one coveted by many (the franchise is notably poorly run), and Gardenhire may be in over his head. Managing for 13 years in the American League, a guy not known as an innovator would have to adjust to a completely different game in the NL.

Should he become the Tigers eventual choice, the fit would seem to make a lot of sense. Gardenhire has compiled a 1068-1039 record across 13 years in the AL Central. Of the major league franchises, the Tigers would be one of the few Gardenhire would find himself relatively familiar with. Detroit also is not far from his roots established in Minnesota and would provide another layer of comfort when getting back into the business.

The biggest question may be in regards to what Illitch and the Tigers believe they are getting in the longtime Twins manager. Ausmus is no doubt being fired for failed expectations. Given premium pieces to make World Series runs, he is 0-3 in his lone postseason appearance, and will miss them in 2015. While given a less than impressive bullpen a season ago, Ausmus no doubt did less with more. What's curious, is that the same could be said about Ron Gardenhire.

Despite a 2010 Manager of the Year award, and six AL Central Division titles (compared to just four for the Tigers in his tenure), Gardenhire's playoff ability has plenty of unanswered questions. The Twins advanced to the ALCS just once under Gardenhire (losing 4-1 to the Angels), and were swept three times in the ALDS (twice by the Yankees, and once by the Athletics). As a whole, Gardenhire's playoff record stands at just 6-21 (good enough for a .222 win percentage). Added up, it would appear the Tigers may be fixing a question with somewhat of another one.

Manager's are somewhat of a fickle beast, and we've seen that this season more than ever. Matt Williams, the Washington Nationals manager with just 2014 as his previous experience, has fallen flat on his face. Williams took a star-studded team and effectively ended their playoff hopes with his own inability. Then there's Dan Jennings (who took over in Miami for Redmond), coming in having never managed or played at any level, who's compiled a 39-57 record (or virtually the same as his predecessor in Redmond). What we have learned over the course of 2015 is that often, major league franchises perception of managers becomes reality.

If Illitch and the Tigers do intend on hiring Ron Gardenhire to take over in 2016, it will be because their perception trumps documented reality. Gardenhire is a very good manager, but he's had many of the same shortcomings (albeit in a larger dose) than Ausmus. Detroit has changed their culture to be deep playoff runs or bust, and Gardenhire could get them there, but he also couldn't. If the Tigers don't address their lackluster farm, poor relief help, and spending habits, it won't matter who's in the dugout.

Ron Gardenhire deserves another chance at managing. It's going to be odd for Twins fans to see it come in Detroit. He could succeed there, but it may not have much to do with his own accord.

The Twins Gem In The Pen

In recent seasons, the Minnesota Twins have not been in the best position to make moves at the trade deadline. A winning club for the first time since 2010, Terry Ryan was awarded a new opportunity this season. With a handful of different upgrade possibilities at his disposal, it was the bullpen piece that he acquired making it two straight slam dunk deals for the Twins.

A season after snagging major league quality starter Tommy Milone from the Athletics, Ryan turned his attention to a pitching starved pen. The Twins bullpen had been one of the worst in the big leagues through the first half of 2015, and if the club was even going to sniff a playoff opportunity, finishing games needed to be less stressful.

As the deadline drew to a close, Ryan sent lottery ticket prospect Chih-Wei Hu to the the Tampa Bay Rays for veteran Kevin Jepsen. Despite Hu owning a sub 3.00 ERA for the Fort Myers Miracle, he was a fringe prospect that Minnesota turned into a major league commodity. Jepsen came to the Twins under a one-year, $3.03 million deal and a year of team control in 2016.

Despite a potentially concerning 4.20 FIP for the Rays, and an ugly first outing for the Twins, Jepsen has been everything Minnesota has needed. Since that first blow-up outing, Jepsen has allowed just a single earned run across 18.1 IP. He's given up just nine hits, and five walks, while striking out 17 in that span. Allowing just a .141/.203/.188 slash line against, his 0.49 ERA is dazzling. To say Jepsen has revitalized the Twins bullpen would be an understatement.

Jepsen has also taken aim at some of his own peripherals. The once inflated FIP has settled in at 3.04 with the Twins. He's also hitting the strike zone 64% of the time, compared to 61% while with the Rays. Then there's the added responsibility that the newest Twins reliever has taken on.

Despite Glen Perkins being baseball's best closer through the first half of the season, the second half has been a different story. Marred by injury, Minnesota's 9th inning role was up in the air, until Jepsen stepped in. He's picked up seven saves for the Twins (blowing none). Just one run has crossed in those seven innings, and he's fanned nine while giving up just four hits. Not traditionally a closer (just 12 saves in 7 seasons prior to his time with the Twins), Jepsen has looked every bit the part.

Maybe somewhat poetically, a closer is absolutely what Minnesota and Terry Ryan were hoping for in Jepsen. With a renewed sense of purpose in 2015, a bullpen unable to hold onto leads and close out games wasn't going to get it done. Targeting a low cost option, with future benefit, Jepsen has proved to be an acquisition that Minnesota can look back and smile upon.

Over the course of the season, prolonged strength in relief hasn't been something the Twins could much point to. Aside from Perkins, Trevor May, and times of Blaine Boyer, things have been bleak. When Minnesota needed it most though, they got Kevin Jepsen, and became better for it.

Whether the Twins make the playoffs or not, Jepsen has been a diamond in the rough for Molitor and Neil Allen. He's been at the center of Minnesota's September pursuits, and should be expected to continue that trend into 2016 as well.

Who Is This Kyle Gibson?

So here we are, the 2015 Major League Baseball season is quickly rumbling to a finish, and the Minnesota Twins have made it a relevant year. In the playoff hunt, and playing meaningful September baseball, the Twins are in a good place. With the performance though, there are no doubt players that have taken steps forward. The question is, does Kyle Gibson qualify among them?

Coming into the season, Gibson was a pitcher I expected a lot out of. A former first round pick and top Twins pitching prospect, Gibson needed to push the envelope. Now 27 years old, his experience was teetering into veteran territory, and there's no doubt that Minnesota was hoping the results would follow. With new pitching coach Neil Allen getting to work with him for the first time, Gibson had plenty of opportunity in front of him.

The lone full season in his career at the big league level, 2014, Gibson owned a 4.47 ERA in 31 starts for a bad Twins team. He pitched 179.1 innings, struck out 107, walked 57, gave up 12 home runs, and owned a 1.310 WHIP. For all intents and purposes, the numbers were mediocre across the board. On a team with bad starters, Gibson was an ok-at-best back-end option. With a retooled 2015 rotation, the Twins were hoping Gibson could push towards possessing the middle-to-top type stuff he once was billed as.

In 2015 (as of this writing), Gibson owns a 3.87 ERA. He's started 28 games and has pitched 172.0 innings. The former Missouri Tiger has struck out 119 batters and walked 57, while allowing a career high 16 home runs. All told, he's compiled a 1.291 WHIP in 2015. On the surface, it's somewhat difficult to suggest what context that gives the year-by-year improvement Gibson has seen. Taking a closer look starts to open things up however.

First, the start Gibson has was simply brilliant. From April 15 through May 30, Gibson was one of the best in the big leagues. A span of nine starts saw him throw to the tune of a 1.85 ERA and just a .237/.302/.363 slash line against. An rough stretch in the middle of the year inflated things, but then has once again been evened out by a strong finish. In four starts since August 22, Gibson owns a 3.20 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to slash just .228/.291/.315 off of him.

Continuing with a beginning and end trend, Gibson actually has fared the opposite over the course of games themselves. In 2015, the first inning has been one of his worst. Allowing 17 first inning runs and 34 hits, Gibson has been hit around to a 5.46 ERA in getting the first three outs of a game. As contests go on as well, his finish has been difficult. Reaching the sixth inning in 24 of his 28 starts (and advancing beyond just 11 times), the righty owns a 6.52 ERA.

What he has done well though is bounce back. In the second inning, and high leverage situations, Gibson has been at his best. In the second, Gibson owns a 2.25 ERA, and has allowed just eight runs. After pitching to less than advantageous situations, he's allowed opposing hitters to bat just .219/.319/.281 (his lowest slash line allowed across three possible situations).

Quite possibly the biggest improvement Gibson has seen in 2015 is being great when good, and well, less bad when bad. To be fair, every pitcher has better numbers when generating a win than a loss, but Gibson has bee drastically more impressive. In 2014, the Twins starter owned a 1.42 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 5.7 K/9 in wins. He was hit around to the tune of an 11.04 ERA, 1.962 WHIP, and just a 4.6 K/9 in losses. 2015 has been a different story. This season, it's a dazzling 0.87 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9 in wins, with a better 7.38 ERA, 1.752 WHIP, and 6.0 K/9 in losses. Capitalizing on success, and limiting the damage, it's been a complete improvement for the former top prospect.

Having taken a deeper diver into the good, it seems that Gibson is, if nothing else, targeted in his excellence. Needing to settle in and focus, he's at his best. Being stretched out and coming into a game, he can be taken advantage of. It's not all positive however.

Arguably the most concerning numbers Kyle Gibson has produced in 2015 fall into the peripheral statistics category. Looking at FIP (fielding independent pitching) and BB/9, there's some cause for concern. Gibson owns a 4.07 FIP last year (compared to a 3.80 FIP in 2014) and a 3.0 BB/9 (up just 0.1 over 2014). There's some explanation for the former, but maybe not for the latter.

A season ago, the Twins were historically bad defensively, especially in the outfield. For a guy who utilizes the ground ball, pitches shouldn't get to the outfield. Owning a 54.4% ground ball rate in 2014, the 52.7% mark this season is a step backwards. His increased line drive percentage (19.0% in 2014, 20.2% in 2015) also doesn't help things. While the outfield defense is markedly better now, Gibson is also making it work harder behind him.

Although Gibson isn't walking a a much higher rate of batters, the fact that it hasn't decreased is less than ideal. Improvement in the strikeout category is a nice plus, but for a guy fanning only six per nine on average, three walks per nine is hefty. Gibson has utilized his changeup the most in his career in 2015 (19.5%), likely in large part to Allen's instruction. The increased pitch usage could be helping the strikeouts, while making the zone a bit more difficult to maintain. Right now, Gibson's walk rate isn't a problem, but toeing right in the middle of the line, you'd rather not see it become one either.

So, here we are, some ups and some downs, but that's probably what you're going to get with Gibson. I'm not sure he ever looked the part of a one or two pitcher, but at this point it's fair to pencil him in as a solid number three. If the Twins make the playoffs, he can be trusted on the mound to keep you in the game, and really, that's about all you should be asking for. He's taken steps forward this season, and in an improved rotation, he's a big part of it.

Kyle Gibson probably isn't ever going to be the guy, but he's proven he's far more than just a guy too.