Showing posts with label Trevor Plouffe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trevor Plouffe. Show all posts

Friday, February 3, 2017

Twins Must Fix Injury Issues In 2017

Over the course of a 162 game season, it's incredibly inevitable that injuries are going to take place. The depth of even the strongest 40 man rosters are often tested in the game of baseball. While the Minnesota Twins have experienced their fair share, they've also been behind the eight ball far too often.

Just this last season three key examples of reactivity as a detriment come to mind for Minnesota, and one came to a head as Byungho Park was DFA'd by the new front office. Each of Trevor Plouffe, Alex Meyer, and Park were grossly mishandled (or so it would seem) by the Twins training staff a season ago.

Park, who was recently jettisoned off the 40 man roster to make room for recently acquired Matt Belisle, ended his rookie season with season ending wrist surgery. That surgery didn't take place until September, after he had been optioned to Triple-A. Back in July, Park missed time due to the injury, he wasn't DL'd until landing on the shelf with Rochester in August, and there weren't corrective measures taken until the surgery in September.

In Park's last 30 games at the big league level for the Twins (May 17-June 28), he slashed just .123/.208/.236.  After starting .257/.339/.578 through his first 32 games, it was pretty clear regression had move in for some reason or another. Given that he was a prolific slugger coming over to a new test for the first time, it would stand to reason that Park was doing what he could to give his new club more than he currently had.

Then, other the opposite end of the spectrum is a veteran that may have been in the same boat. Last season, Trevor Plouffe dealt with plenty of side injuries that no doubt played into what was somewhat of a disappointing year. He suffered a groin injury early in the summer, then cracked a rib in July. The cracked rib was initially diagnosed as "sore ribs" by the Twins, and the third basemen attempted to play through it. As the season drew to a close, another DL stint was pushed off as a strained oblique became the latest thing to sap Plouffe's production.

In 2016, Plouffe's .723 OPS was his lowest since the 2013 season, and in part, indicative of a player that never was able to take the field with a clean bill of health. It's admirable when a vet wants to go out and battle, especially an arbitration case like Plouffe, but again the Twins training staff did him no favors. He was allowed to participate to his detriment on multiple occasions, and injuries went wrongly diagnosed for a period as well.

Rounding out the most noticeable trio from 2016, and arguably the most egregious, is former prospect Alex Meyer. To be fair, the Twins did a less than ideal job of developing Meyer into the frontline starter he was dubbed as, but their handling of his body may have been even worse.

On May 3, 2016 Alex Meyer pitched for the Twins and lasted just 2.2 IP. He was then optioned to Triple-A Rochester. Despite having shoulder issues, he was simply called day-to-day for 32 days. He wasn't DL'd until June 3rd. The Twins didn't have him throwing, they didn't have more information, the simply did nothing for what was once considered a top tier starting prospect.

When the Twins dealt Alex Meyer to the Los Angeles Angels on August 1st with Ricky Nolasco, he ended his time with Minnesota having not pitched since May 3. The Angels placed Meyer on the minor league 7 day DL immediately to work a roster spot, but had him back on the mound pitching on August 13. The organization invested time into getting him healthy, and had him contribute five starts in September for the big league club.

Ron Gardenhire was often chastised for how he handled roster movement with injured players. He'd carry a guy not available for too long, only to DL them and leave the club short for a longer period of time. In recent memory, the Twins process has been to slap a day-to-day designation on a player (Byron Buxton has also experienced this fate), despite seemingly having no real plan on how to get players healthy.

Given that I'm unfamiliar with the inner workings of the training department, and what Dave Pruemer and his staff have as goals, I can't point an exact finger. What is apparent though, is that the Minnesota Twins seem to be an incredibly reactive organization when it comes to injuries, and it often works to the detriment of their players. Guys like Park, Plouffe, and Meyer all were worse off for how the Twins handled their setbacks a season ago. For a team needing every advantage possible, poor injury management isn't something ideal to fall under.

Thursday, September 8, 2016

If This Is It, Thank You Trevor

Recently, Paul Molitor announced to the media tasked with covering the Minnesota Twins that Trevor Plouffe is dealing with both a strained oblique and an intercostal strain. The unfortunate reality is that he'll need at least a handful of weeks before feeling back to playing condition. With just 22 games left in the 2016 season for the Twins, Plouffe's 2016 could well be over. That also means it's worth wondering if we've seen the last of him as a Minnesota Twin.

Signed to a one year, $7.25 million deal this season, Plouffe will be entering his final year of arbitration this winter. Given the expected salary increase, Minnesota will likely be on the hook for something like $10 million during 2017 if they so choose to tender him a contract. For a 31 year old third-basemen who's posted a .731 OPS since 2013, that's a tall ask. To complicate things further, the organization also has Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, and Byungho Park all vying for time in similar roles. The writing may be on the wall. It's very possible he's played his last game with the Twins.

Now, with that all being said, it's a tenure that ends with a touch of sadness.

Trevor Plouffe was a first round draft pick out of Crespi Carmelite High School way back in 2004. He rose through the farm system and made his major league debut on June 16, 2004. Starting at shortstop, then moving into more of a super utility role over his first three professional seasons, Plouffe found his footing at the hot corner in 2013.

Showing up first in 2012, Plouffe established himself as a capable power slugger. His 24 long balls that season will go down as his most in a single year with the Twins. Over the course of his 723 games played for Minnesota, he has landed just four homers shy of the century mark. That total ties him for 18th in Minnesota Twins history. Never an All Star, Plouffe had plenty of seasons that qualify his as a quality piece on the Minnesota 25 man.

Playing the bulk of his Minnesota career during seasons in which the club lost 90 or more games, Plouffe didn't get to experience the highs of the Twins division championship seasons. Most notably during his career however has been the intense work ethic that allowed him to transform his ability with the glove.

I think Plouffe would be among the first to admit his time at shortstop in the big leagues, and initial venture over to third base, didn't go well. He posted a -12 DRS at short in 2011, and was -8 at the hot corner in 2012. From there however, he pushed his total to league average in 2013 and then was worth a career high 6 DRS in over 1,110 innings during 2014. Increasing both his DRS and UZR (6.7), it was in 2014 that Plouffe flashed the best of himself at third base. He became a legitimate asset at the hot corner and was incredibly far removed from the guy that needed to acclimate to a big league infield.

Over the past couple of years, Plouffe has been bit by the injury bug and missed time here and there. When healthy however, he's shown he's capable of being a good big league hitter, and has a place somewhere in the middle of the Twins lineup. While the latest malady may sap the rest of 2016 from him, Plouffe went out on a high note slashing .302/.365/.523 with five homers over his last 21 games.

Whatever happens from here, both the Twins and Trevor Plouffe are better off because of each other. The California kid grew up into a very solid big leaguer, and the Twins solidified the extreme left side of their infield thanks to the work ethic of a guy who was determined to give the club more.

From here, whether in Minnesota or elsewhere, the only thing to say is thank you Trevor. Thanks for being a part of Twins Territory. Thanks for committing to your craft. Thanks for always giving Minnesota the best you had to give. Thanks to you, Olivia, and Teddy for calling Minnesota home. Whatever the next stop on your journey, you will always have a place in Twins Territory.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Trevor Plouffe Has A Home With Minnesota

Coming into the season, arguably one of the most head-scratching decisions the Minnesota Twins made was to load up on first basemen and designated hitter types. There was Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, and then the acquisition of Byung Ho Park. Given the scarcity of at bats to go around, more questions than answers were present in regards to how it would all work. Now nearing the end of the 2016 campaign, it seems the most likely to be moved of the bunch, may have a future role.

Trevor Plouffe has not had the 2016 season that Minnesota hoped for after a solid 2015 campaign. Owning a .244/.307/.435 line a season ago, bolstered by 22 homers and 86 runs batted in, this season has been nothing short of a disappointment. Slashing just .259/.295/.399 his .694 OPS is the worst mark he's put up as a pro. Plouffe has just seven long balls, and he's played in just 65 of the Twins 120 games this season.

Therein is the greatest issue for Plouffe during the second year under Paul Molitor however, he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. Having taken multiple trips to the disabled list, it's hard to imagine Plouffe finding any ability to get into a consistent rhythm.

With the idea that a mulligan can be placed on his 2016 season, it's going to be decision time as to whether or not the Twins bring Plouffe back a year from now. Making $7.25 million this season, and entering his final year of arbitration, I'd be more than ok with that happening. I was a big supporter of the idea that Minnesota should've extended Plouffe last season, buying out his final two years of arbitration and one year of free agency, likely saving themselves money in the long run. Having not done that, the Twins will end up spending a bit more through the arbitration process, but that shouldn't deter them from Plouffe being at Target Field to open 2017.

Considering the log jam that was created, we've been given some clarity as to how the Twins can manage the group due to what's taken place this season. Joe Mauer is having his most productive season in years, and the reality is that it's come with him getting more rest. Byung Ho Park has struggled with a wrist injury most of the year, and hasn't yet proven he's capable of catching up to Triple-A pitching let alone the big league level. On the Miguel Sano front, his position is third base when playing the field, but elbow concerns have that looking like something that may not be an every day scenario.

Where does that leave Plouffe and the rest of the Twins infield cast? Likely in a constant shuffle, but one that can be tweaked on a game-by-game basis. Despite having a better approach this season, I still don't see Kennys Vargas as much more than a bench bat. He'll be out of options, and likely not clear waivers, but Minnesota could try and move him in a package deal this winter. Jorge Polanco can be given the starting shortstop job allowing Eduardo Escobar to rotate in. Polanco has the ability to play third as well, and can find time there, or in spelling Brian Dozier at second when necessary.

To summarize what Plouffe's position boils down to is to suggest that he remain flexible. Knowing that 2016 isn't a reflection of the production that should be projected for him, keeping his bat on your 25 man roster is a good idea. Plouffe can rotate in at third, designated hitter, first, and even play some corner outfield if need be. Right now though, there's not an internal option for the Twins that is substantially more reliable than what Trevor Plouffe brings to the table.

I don't expect Minnesota to realistically compete in 2017. That means Plouffe could potentially be flipped over the summer if that's what ends up needing to take place. Going into the year though, he should be seen more as a solution, than a part of the once perceived log jam.

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Twins Begin Weighing Possibilities With Plouffe

Coming into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, there was plenty of reason to believe that the Minnesota Twins should have moved Trevor Plouffe. Playing third base while pushing teammate Miguel Sano to the outfield, it was over the offseason that Plouffe's value was likely at its peak. Fast forward to where we are now however, and the narrative couldn't be any more different.

Starting with Sano, I had plenty of belief that he could be a capable right fielder. To say he has been far off from that is probably somewhat controversial. Looking at the power hitting corner guys such as J.D. Martinez and Jose Bautista however, he's holding his own just fine. The argument for Sano in right was always that if the power played, the rest wouldn't matter. That has held relatively true for the most part. Right up until the point in which he got hurt.

Now with a balky hamstring that's going to be more susceptible to injury the rest of the way, Minnesota is absolutely faced with a decision. That involves figuring out a way to get Sano back into the infield, and have him focus more on his bat and glove, rather than running down fly balls.

This is where Trevor Plouffe enters the equation.

In 2016, Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR, the second highest mark of his career. His 22 longballs were his highest total since launching 24 back in 2012. With a 3.6 fWAR season in 2014, and continuing improvement defensively, it appeared as if Plouffe was a late bloomer and his best seasons may be ahead of him. Minnesota probably could have (and maybe should have) dealt Plouffe before the 2016 season started, but the market for third basemen was lukewarm at best, and the club decided to hold on.

Now 50 games into his 2016 season, Plouffe is slashing .239/.264/.362 with just five homers and eight doubles to his credit. Normally an extra base hit machine, he's looked anything but the player Twins fans have come to know him as. Posting a -0.6 fWAR thus far, it's been as much a struggle for Plouffe as it has the hapless Twins this season.

As things stand currently, Minnesota has reached a point in which a crossroads must be addressed. To be completely fair, the situation probably should have been cleared up prior to this point. Miguel Sano is likely going to go out on a rehab assignment in the coming week or so. When he returns, he's going to need a place in the lineup, and it's not going to be in the outfield. Paul Molitor could do some shuffling with Byung Ho Park, but really, this one is on Terry Ryan.

It's time, trade Trevor Plouffe.

Without being connected to the front office, it's hard to imagine what phone calls the Twins have made or received. However, there are some teams out there that absolutely have some needs. Kelly Johnson isn't going to be the lone answer for the Mets, and it would stand to reason that Minnesota should start there. When linked to the Angels during the offseason, Plouffe's return was speculated as equivalent to that of a relief prospect. Right now, that caution can almost be thrown to the wind.

Making $7.2 million with a final year of arbitration eligibility in front of him, Plouffe's value to the Twins is becoming addition by subtraction. Right now, whatever return Ryan could finagle for Plouffe should turn into an afterthought. Opening up third base, allowing Sano, Mauer, and Park to all coexist harmoniously, that should be the goal.

Over the past seven years, Trevor Plouffe has done a lot for the Twins. He's grown up in Minnesota, matured as a pro, and become a relevant big leaguer. Cut the ties, allow him to go to a winner, and start to make the kids a priority in the Twins lineup.

Thursday, June 2, 2016

The Twins Chips Ready To Move

It's June, and the Twins are the worst team in baseball. They've currently been swept half as often as they have won games, and this season has gone the opposite of any expectations could have laid out. With a couple of months left to the trade deadline, it may be time for Terry Ryan to start sending his chips to the table. Minnesota doesn't have many any big names, but there's pieces that are worth moving.

Despite Major League Baseball dictating trades being allowed (in the traditional sense) up until July 31, the Twins would be best served to act well before then. As a handful of their current commodities may have short shelf lives, moving them prior to any downfall would be a good idea. If you've begun reading trade pieces on the interwebs at all, you know who is considered as trade chip for Minnesota, but I'm prepared to tell you who the club should move.

With that said, let's get into it.

Fernando Abad- Level of trade necessity 10

Easily Ryan's best free agent signing of the offseason, Abad came in as a non-roster guy that the Twins believed they saw something in. Commenting that he was tipping his pitches, Minnesota thought that the 4.15 ERA in 62 games for the Athletics in 2015 was an outlier, turns out they were right. Currently, Abad owns a 0.93 ERA in 19.1 IP. He's posted an 8.4 K/9 and walked just 2.3 per 9, a career best.

Abad is a lefty reliever capable of getting batters from both sides out. He's a luxury that the Twins don't need to afford. Their pen is bad, and so are they, his value doesn't push the needle much. Sending him to a contender to solidify their pen is the most realistic plan of action, and he should have plenty of suitors.

Eduardo Nunez- 9

If there's a reason the Twins shouldn't send Nunez to the All Star game, it's because he shouldn't be with the organization when that time rolls around. Considering Abad a must trade, Nunez should be considered a must trade now.

I'm not in favor of taking a bag of balls back for Nunez, but his value is never going to be higher than it is currently, and waiting only invites the opportunity for it to fall. Nunez's .329/.356/.494 slash line is well above his career norms (.274/.314/.401) and he's continued to be a poor defender. For now, he's been one of the lone contributors on a bad club, and making sure to get some return on that is a good plan of action.

There's reason to believe a return for Nunez won't equate to much, he's got a decent track record that says this is a mirage. That being said, if someone is willing to cough up a mid-level prospect, the Twins should be all over it.

Robbie Grossman- 5

Despite making few well timed moves during the offseason, and a poor display of roster control throughout 2016, Terry Ryan seems to have come up well with Grossman. The 26 year old is finally doing something he never has before, hit. An on-base machine, Grossman's bat has turned in a .359/.457/.667 line over his first 12 games with the Twins. He's already amassed 6 doubles and has two homers to his credit. Right now, Paul Molitor and crew have to be hoping the carriage doesn't turn back into a pumpkin.

Sure, Grossman is 26, and not arbitration eligible until 2018. The team control he possesses makes him valuable if you believe this sort of thing continues. However, he was cast aside by the Astros for a reason, and couldn't find his way into the Indians plans. Grossman will probably always find ways to get on base, but betting on his bat is a risky gamble.

With the ability to be a 4th outfielder at worst, I'm not going to simply give him away. I'd rather have Grossman in the organization as opposed to a retread like Darin Mastroianni in a pinch. However, Minnesota should be able to find a contender needing that type of lift immediately, and could maximize their return by flipping the recently claimed asset.

Trevor Plouffe- 7

Over the offseason, my number on Plouffe would have been a 4. I am of the belief that Miguel Sano has been virtually as expected in right field, and while some may see that as an abomination, I'd put it as simply below-standard. Sure, playing the hulking Dominican in the outfield is about as suboptimal as it gets, but the Twins and Plouffe were tied to each other.

Despite coming off a solid season for the Twins, Plouffe's winter trade market was non-existent. David Freese settled for nothing with the Pirates, and the Twins watched that all play out. The reality remained that Plouffe was more valuable to Minnesota than he was to anyone else. The unfortunate thing now is that I'm not sure that has changed.

As much as I've been ok with sano in right, it's probably time to get him back on the dirt. Plouffe though, has hit for a career worst .648 OPS and he's walked significantly less than at any other point in his career. The power numbers haven't been there, and he's merely capable at third. I'm for dealing him to open up the roster spot, and get Sano to a more comfortable position. The problem I see is that the market may dictate the Twins simply give him away, and I'm not sure that's the best plan of action.

The Others: 10

Only two guys fall into this category for me, and it's the combination of Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. Remember, the numerical values represent the level of trade necessity for the Twins. I can't see either pitcher being coveted, but I'd look to move both for whatever you can get.

Nolasco was poor money allocation from the get go, and Hughes' contract extension has turned out to be a significant blunder. The Twins have starting depth, even if it isn't all top tier, but opening up the roster spots and freeing the case is a plus in and of itself. Nolasco needs to go back to the National League, and Hughes may very well be pitching hurt. There's no real scenario in which I want to lean on either guy going forward, and offloading them makes that much easier.

I can't imagine the Twins would be getting much, if any, of a return for Hughes or Nolasco. With Ricky, they may have to eat some money, and Hughes' extension pays a hefty price tag if he continues to trend the way he has. Ryan should be making it his mission to call, unload, and move on from the pair in whatever way possible however.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Sano Is Fooling Someone

Prior to the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins made the commitment to Miguel Sano in right field. In keeping Trevor Plouffe, the club kept together what projected to be a strong offense, and forced Sano to learn a new position. There's been some hiccups in the process (as expected), but what's interesting is the belief that this wasn't a possible scenario all along.

Just a handful of games into the season, the Twins tender of the hot corner, Trevor Plouffe, hit the disabled list with an intercostal strain. The club called up infielder Jorge Polanco to replace him on the 25 man roster, but it was Sano and Eddie Rosario who fielded some pre-game grounders for Paul Molitor's squad. Pictures circulated on the interwebs, and the question quickly became whether or not Sano would move back to third base at least in the short term.

The simple answer is almost unquestionably no. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have both harped on being committed to the development of Sano in right field. Outside of some extreme set of circumstances, the hulking Dominican is nowhere near their radar to play third base. This seems to draw the ire of some in the fan base, but the problem is, should it?

First of all, let's remember that Sano is a ballplayer pushing 280 pounds. Sure, a lot of that is muscle, but it doesn't negate the fact that he's a very large human being. Now we're all more than well aware that Sano came through the Twins system as a third basemen (after being signed as a shortstop), but there were always significant questions as to whether he'd stick there at the big league level. Comparing him to his peers, it's not hard to see he's an outlier.

Forget looking at the best defensive third basemen, Sano almost assuredly would not be in that category. Comparing the Twin to a group of big league third basemen who posted between 4 and -6 defensive runs saved at third base last season (a total of eight players), not one is heavier than David Freese's 225 pounds. Freese has played third in the big leagues for the entirety of his career, having posted a 2 DRS for a career high, and a -14 DRS as a career low.

Then there's comparing Sano to teammate Trevor Plouffe. Both had the minor league career arc of being shifted from shortstop to third base. Plouffe failed at short and was moved, while Sano was almost immediately deemed too big for the role. Plouffe posted just 13 errors in 78 career minor league games, or a 26.9 per 162 game average. On the other hand, Sano has totaled 112 errors over the course of 326 starts at third base, or a 55.6 per 162 game average. That only begins to highlight where Sano may have experienced some significant struggles at the next level.

Coming off of Tommy John surgery as a position player, Sano's arm was generally expected to respond well. The stress for a third basemen isn't nearly what it is for a pitcher, and Sano has shown he still has a cannon during his time in right field for the Twins. What the question always was for him related to his glove and lateral agility at the hot corner.

At the present time, we're allowed an almost exact level of comparison between Sano in right and at third base in the big leagues. During the 2015 season, he played a total of 77 innings at third turning in a -1 DRS and a 0.7 ultimate zone rating. In right field during 2016, he's played 79.2 innings owning a -4 DRS and a -0.1 UZR. We're really at a place of splitting hairs.

Sano's deficiencies in right field have been generally linked to his uncertainty as to how to attack a batted baseball. Whether it be an ill timed dive, or a poor route, there struggles he's going through are largely related to learning how to adjust to new ball trajectories on the fly (no pun intended). That said, his athleticism has adept enough in allowing him to complete the plays he absolutely should make.

Where we're currently at is a position in which the Twins employed the best case scenario in regards to Sano. It's probably more than false hope to suggest or believe that he was going to be a capable big league third basemen defensively. Almost by body size alone, he's destined for a designated hitter or first base role. The former isn't a sentence you'd like to present to a 22 year old, and the latter is currently occupied by one of the best hitters in baseball.

Long term, Miguel Sano probably shouldn't play right field forever. Expecting him to capably hold down the role while mashing opposing pitching and getting contributions from both Plouffe and Mauer is a sensible approach however. With Plouffe out of the picture for the time being, Sano continues to be a better fit for the greater good of Minnesota in right, and it really doesn't matter that his position on the farm may say otherwise.

Friday, February 5, 2016

How Good Is Trevor Plouffe?

The shortest answer to the proposed question possible; better than you think. Really though, Plouffe entered the offseason as an arbitration eligible player for the Twins, and secured a nice raise to the tune of a one-year $7.25 million deal. With another season of arbitration eligibility ahead of him, and the expected production to follow, he could enter a whole new tier by 2017.

Heading into the winter months, the Minnesota Twins were faced with a decision. Having Miguel Sano ready for more playing time, and needing to move out from a designated hitter only role, the Twins had to figure out what to do with Plouffe. Arguably one of the American League's best third basemen, his trade value was going to be somewhat muted by the fact that he's already 29, in his prime or not.

I took the stance in January that holding onto Plouffe was absolutely the right decision. For a young team like the Twins, moving on from top talent is not a great strategy, and a player like Plouffe is always going to be more valuable in Minnesota than wherever else he goes. Whether the return was a relief arm or something better, holding off on fielding offers was the smart play by GM Terry Ryan.

What Plouffe gave the Twins in 2015 was nothing to be disappointed about. He was worth 2.5 fWAR (down a bit from his 3.6 fWAR mark in 2014), and slashed a respectable .244/.307/.435. His 152 games played was easily a career high, and career marks were also set in runs scored (74), hits (140), triples (4), and RBI (86). Plouffe's 22 home runs were the second highest mark of his career, and helped him to eclipse the 20 plateau for the first time since 2012.

Unfortunately for Plouffe, his detractors led to some muted numbers. He led the league in times grounding into double plays (28), and struck out a career high 124 times. His on-base percentage being just north of .300 was a relative step back rom the .328 mark he posted during 2014. For Plouffe, some of it came down to tough luck.

In the year that was, Plouffe posted the best hard hit contact rate of his career (33.5%). Generating just a .274 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) however, suggests that the Twins third basemen didn't find a ton of holes on those hard hit balls. He also hit over 40% of his balls in play on the ground, while generating just above 18% of his batted balls as line drives. Hitting the ball hard into the ground, Plouffe's launch angles weren't going to help him accumulate extra base hits.

At the plate, Trevor's approach continues to be one that should benefit him in the long run. He doesn't chase often, and once again swung at less than 30% (26.2% to be exact) of pitches thrown outside of the zone. When swinging at pitches in the zone, he made contact over 88% of the time, and had a total contact rating over 80% for the fourth straight year. Not a big swing and miss guy, Plouffe whiffed on pitches just 8.7% of the time.

For brief stretches, it's all come together for Plouffe as well. From Opening Day through the end of May, Plouffe was arguably the best third basemen in baseball not named Josh Donaldson. Over that 46 game stretch, the Twins third basemen slashed .279/.352/.488. He clubbed eight homers, drove in 29 runs, and doubled 10 times. The results were also aided by the type of balls Plouffe was putting in play, as he owned a .317 BABIP over that stretch. From that point forward is where Plouffe's season took the opposite direction. His BABIP from June 1 through the end of the year was just .256, while his slash line rested at .229/.288/.411.

My belief going forward is that Plouffe is more the player the Twins saw at the beginning of 2015, rather than through the end of it. Having to struggle through unlucky bounces and poor circumstances, much of the hot start was overlooked. In making a few tweaks to get the ball off the ground a bit more often, the season could have ended significantly different for the California native.

The offseason has been one that's been incredibly busy for Plouffe. He's been a dad for the first time off the field, handed a nice raise, and is working towards an even better year ahead. The Twins didn't approach him about a long term extension during arbitration, but they may wish they had. Should Plouffe take another step forward in 2016, he's going to quickly surpass the $10 million average annual value mark, and enter into the discussion among the game's best third basemen.

Regardless of the positional shifts happening around him, Minnesota was best served to hold onto Trevor Plouffe. A late-bloomer that is in the midst of his prime, pushing towards a trip to San Diego in the middle of the summer shouldn't be out of the question. Plouffe may have become somewhat of a complimentary Twin, but make no mistake, there's more production there.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

The Best Trade Not Made

Going into the offseason, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor made quick work of releasing the information that Miguel Sano was going to try and make a transition to the outfield. The exciting slugger needed to make room for Byung Ho Park, and playing right field was how the Twins were going to handle that. The notion was met with skepticism and an almost guaranteed thought that in the end, Trevor Plouffe would be dealt from the Twins.

In the end though, Plouffe has stayed put, and it creates a best possible scenario for the Twins.

Although Sano is entering uncharted territory in the outfield, there's reason to believe that it could work. What's more important though, is exactly how much Plouffe means to Minnesota. For Molitor's squad, there was no logical return that was going to bring back what Plouffe meant to the lineup. Most importantly is that the production Plouffe brings may be under appreciated.

A season ago, Trevor Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Twins, down from a 3.6 fWAR in 2014. Unfortunately for those stuck on projections, Steamer sees just a 1.6 fWAR for the Twins third basemen in 2016. It really depends on what Plouffe is able to play throughout the entirety of the season however.

In a handful of categories, Plouffe set new records for himself a year ago. He played in a career high 152 games, scored 74 runs, picked up 140 hits, tripled four times, homered 22 times, drove in 86 runs, and looked every bit the part of one of the best third basemen in baseball. The problem is that Plouffe's season was a tale of two parts.

From Opening Day until the end of July, Plouffe slashed a respectable .257/.316/.456 as well as clubbing 14 of his homers and driving in 55 of his runs. Of his 35 doubles on the season, 24 of them came before August, then things changed. From August 1st through the end of the season, Plouffe slashed an ugly .223/.294/.398. He homered just eight more times, and he struck out 53 times in 56 starts. The momentum from the better part of the season had fallen off of a cliff.

So why does it matter that Plouffe is still in the middle of the Twins lineup? Because for a team that will rely on offense, the California product has shown he can be a catalyst for it. When called upon to handle the load as the cleanup hitter, Plouffe went through issue. In 68 starts from the four-hole, he slashed just .223/.284/.400, launching eight of his homers. At his best, hitting from the five-spot in the lineup, Plouffe slashed .274/.332/.489 with 11 of his homers.

Dropping in the lineup behind the likes of 2016 power hitters, Sano and Park, Plouffe is given an opportunity to see pitches in a more ideal situation. Allowing Plouffe to hit in a lesser lineup role in the year ahead could foster the same type of early season production the Twins saw from their third basemen, but allow them to benefit for an entire 162.

At the end of the day, Plouffe wasn't going to net the Twins much more than a relief arm. Considering the benefit to the lineup as one of their best hitters, keeping him and pairing his bat with the likes of Sano, Park, and Brian Dozier should help the Twins to create offensive opportunities in an abundant fashion.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

What If Sano In The Outfield Works?

For the next couple of months, Target Field will have plenty of snow in the outfield. When the whether turns warmer and the Twins return home from spring training in sunny Fort Myers, there may be a different Sano in the outfield. Puns aside, what happens when Miguel Sano in right field for the Twins works out wonderfully?

Let's clear a couple of things up here. First and foremost, it appears Trevor Plouffe is not going to be traded. Terry Ryan has been adamant that the Twins don't have nay intentions of moving their third basemen, and after the year he had last year, it's hard to argue with him. I have been a proponent of giving Plouffe an extension, and while that notion has cooled, he's a bat they probably can't replace.

Secondly, there's a distant possibility that the Opening Day outfield for Minnesota could rival some of the worst in major league history. In this scenario, Byron Buxton starts the year at Triple-A Rochester, meaning the three big league spots would be filled by Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario, and Sano. There's no denying this construction has the makings of a horribly bad defensive unit. Logically though, I think it's a pretty sound bet that Buxton begins the year where he belongs, at the highest level.

Now that we have some parameters set, it's time to get into it.

The outfield utilized most often by the Twins a season ago featured Torii Hunter in right field. For everything he was as a veteran leader and statue of nostalgia, he was virtually that in the outfield, a statue. Hunter gave the Twins a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark, as well as contributing just a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating).

Providing some background understanding when it comes to UZR, here is how it breaks down. UZR is essentially how outfielders are quantified from a complete defensive value. Calculated by looking at how many runs are saved by an outfielder's arm, turning double plays, someone's range, and how many errors are committed in relation to league average, it's quite a comprehensive number. Looking at Hunter's mark, he was essentially a wash when it came to overall value.

Knowing that Plouffe staying at third gives the Twins a positive outcome when considering replacements, it's time to look at the expectations for Sano and his new role. As things stand right now, it appears Ryan and Molitor are split on where Sano would best be suited. Molitor has noted that Sano may be best fit in left, as he sees the ball off the bat in that situation at third. Ryan however, thinks that the ground needing to be covered in left would be best suited for the likes of a more natural outfielder, meaning Sano would be destined for right.

Regardless of which position he plays, Sano has a few things going for him. Last season, had the Twins gone with Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Torii Hunter for the entirety of the season, their DRS total would have been something like 26. That mark would have been good enough for the 5th best outfield in the big leagues (trailing just Tampa Bay, Arizona, the Royals, and Mets). Also, Hunter didn't set the bar incredibly high.

There's little doubt that on the field, Hunter's presence was most felt in the batters box. Despite the mass amount of times he's going to strike out, there's little reason to believe Sano won't be a superior hitter to the 2015 version of Torii Hunter in nearly every way. Defensively, Sano possesses better speed and quickness, while owning a significantly superior arm.

That brings us to what Sano's biggest deficiency is going to be. After having played infield for the entirety of his career, the Twins are asking a hulking 260 pound 22 year-old to play a position completely foreign to him. The outfield is far more than just getting under pop flies, and while learning the best routes to balls is a feat all its own, there's also understanding situations, cutoffs, and each stadium's quirks. Looking at what lies ahead of him, it's the instinctual part of the game that will provide the biggest challenge.

At the end of the day, Miguel Sano in the outfield for the Twins is quite the proposition. It's a scary one to say the least, and one that Byron Buxton not being to his side gets worse. The silver lining though is that it could actually work, and if it does, the Twins are much better positioned than they are if they move Trevor Plouffe simply to accommodate having too many pieces.

Monday, December 7, 2015

Twins Talking At Winter meetings

Monday marks a glorious day on the offseason calendar in regards to Major League Baseball. This season in Nashville, the Winter Meetings have officially commenced. With everybody who is anybody in the game of baseball in attendance, the Hot Stove is at its most scalding, and the acquisition market (both free agent and trade) is bubbling over. The question is, what do the Twins do this week?

After offering contracts to each of the six arbitration eligible players, the Twins 40 man roster currently stands at capacity. Don't let that deter focus however, the club has room to improve. With a handful of players that could still be removed from the 40 man, Minnesota has some definite targets this week.

Looking at the biggest area of need for Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor, relief pitching is a glaring weakness. Owning one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues a season ago, you can bet the Twins will be talking to many relievers this week. Off them, two names jump off the page.

First and foremost, Minnesota has been linked to 38 year-old Fernando Rodney. Playing for $7 million with the Mariners and Cubs in 2015, his price will be significantly lowered. Although his 14 games with the Cubs produced a 0.75 ERA, the collective whole was uninspiring. Rodney owned a 4.92 FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark, and a 4.74 ERA in 2015. He struck out just 8.3 per nine while walking 4.2 per nine. In total, it was his worst season since 2011 with the Angels. For all of his detractors, Rodney is a year removed from an All Star season, and Major League leading 48 save campaign in 2014. Minnesota could do worse, but should exercise caution here.

Another arm that the club has been linked to is that of 32 year-old Tony Sipp. A relative average arm for the majority of his career, Sipp put together a 1.99 ERA and 2.9# FIP across 60 games a season ago. His 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 would be at the top of the Twins pen. His FIP numbers over the last two seasons suggest 2015 wasn't a fluke, but he's probably not going to repeat the same level of success. Said to be looking for around $5-6 million per year, coming to Minnesota on a two or three year deal would make a lot of sense.

Then there's the trade market, and that's one that the Twins seem to have only one or two logical pieces for. While the farm system is overflowing with top-tier talent, Ryan doesn't seem interested in a package to acquire a high-end player at this point. What he could do is deal from a position of depth.

Trevor Plouffe still remains the most likely player to be traded out of Minnesota. Despite Ryan continuing to claim that Miguel Sano is destined for the outfield, moving Plouffe seems like a much better strategy. The Angels continue to be the team that makes the most sent, and relievers like Cam Bedrosian or Trevor Gott could probably be had in return. Plouffe is no doubt an asset to the Twins, but if they can get a solid relief arm in return, it may push the needle of the club as a whole.

Probably far from likely, but worth mentioning, is the possibility of moving Eddie Rosario. With Minnesota moving Aaron Hicks to the Yankees, it's likely that those around baseball see Rosario as having lesser value. He had a great rookie year, but his free-swinging tendencies provide a reason for caution moving forward. The Twins have Max Kepler on the way, and outfield options at multiple different levels. If they saw a fit in moving Rosario, there's little reason to believe he's untouchable.

Finally, there's always the revisiting of what was rumblings of mutual interest in the San Diego Padres assets. I still have a hard time seeing where Ricky Nolasco fits for the Twins, and a swap to San Diego in exchange for James Shields could make a lot of sense. Both are bad contracts, but Big Game James may be better suited to pitch in the American League than Nolasco has proven. San Diego is motivated to move him, but are the Twins willing to take the bait?

After a fast start to the offseason, I'd put the over/under for moves the Twins make this week at the Winter Meetings at a conservative 1.5. Right now, I'll take the over. I think the team speak probably comes to a head, and Plouffe is dealt. If he isn't this week, it may not happen at all. On top of that, I think Terry Ryan is at least aware he can't go into the season with the bullpen constructed as it currently is. Look for him to address that one way or another.

The baseball landscape is going to be shook up this week, and it's the Winter Meetings that we have to thank for it.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Trevor Plouffe Still A Twin, For Now

To say that the Twins have spent the last week and a half making some position juggling decisions would be to put things lightly. It appears that Miguel Sano is headed to the outfield, and Minnesota has found their newest designated hitter. In the midst of it all, Trevor Plouffe still remains in line to man the hot corner, and for good reason.

There has been plenty of discussion regarding the Twins looking to deal their starting third basemen. Plouffe is considered to be blocking uber-prospect Miguel Sano, and he's only getting more expensive through arbitration. After another solid campaign in 2015, there's no doubt his $4.8 million contract is going to go up in the second year of arbitration eligibility. While a trade could still come to fruition, it's far from something that should be considered a lock.

A season ago, Plouffe had the look (at least early) of an All Star caliber third basemen. He finished with a .244/.307/.435 slash line cemented by 22 homers and 86 runs batted in. The 29 year-old logged career highs in games played, runs, hits, triples, and RBI. On the defensive side of things, he was worth -1 DRS (defensive runs saved) and compiled a 1.7 UZR (ultimate zone rating). Although it was a step back in the field, the improvement defensively over the last two seasons still remains substantial.

In short, Plouffe is an asset for the Twins, and appears to remain so moving forward.

That begs the question, what reason is there for Minnesota to trade him? Considering his positioning as an asset, Plouffe has become a valuable commodity. Adding to that is the fact he is under team control until 2018, and is still just 29 years-old (likely entering his prime a bit later than most). The production combined with the business side of things makes Plouffe a commodity if the Twins choose to go that route.

Looking at the roster shuffle the Twins have recently begun, it's hard to argue against Plouffe not pushing the envelope however. While Sano to left field is a defensive step backwards, it makes a significant amount of sense for the immediate future. Sure, an Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks is a defensive wonder, but it's probably not quite ready yet. Buxton's bat may keep him from the Opening Day roster, and Rosario's swing and miss rates should be some cause for concern. In due time, that scenario could still play out.

With things shaping up as they are, it appears the Twins are poised to go with an outfield of Sano, Hicks, and Rosario. Plouffe would man the hot corner with Joe Mauer at first, and the (hopeful) addition of Byung-Ho Park filling the DH spot. In going with this construction, the Twins would be adding talent all over the field, and worrying about how to make it fit later. In an organization with strong youth prospects, as well as major league pieces, this is an incredibly sensible strategy.

There's still reason to believe Plouffe could be dealt. If a team like the Angels is willing to part with pitching, Terry Ryan would be best served to listen. Regardless, right now the assumption that his bags are already packed should be looked at as incredibly premature. Minnesota is on the cusp of turning the franchise around for the foreseeable future, and parting with talent because of position squeezes isn't generally a viable strategy.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

In 2015, He's The Most Valuable Twin

While there's a few games left in the Minnesota Twins 2015 campaign, we are now at a point in which we can look back and dissect how we arrived here. To be clear, here is a point that hasn't been reached in four years. It's 81+ wins, a .500+ record, a winning team, and an expectation of positive seasons ahead. Although Paul Molitor has been at the helm, it's been these players that have paved the way.

To quantify a team MVP for the Twins season is a much more difficult task than would be imagined. Considering there has been two lone winning months, and a handful of first or second half type performers, and players that have step up at the most important times, it is far from cut and dry. In an effort to recognize those deemed worthy, a top five seems the most effective route to take. Don't worry though, number one will get his due.

5. Kevin Jepsen

Somewhat of an interesting inclusion no doubt, but knowing where the Twins are now, they would not be there without the deadline acquisition of the former Rays reliever. Since joining the Twins, Jepsen has pitched in 27 games, owns a 1.73 ERA and a 2.68 FIP. He's struck out 8.0 batters per nine innings, and he's saved nine games for the Twins.

Glen Perkins had an amazing first half for the Twins, but he's been non-existent down the stretch. Jepsen came over in hopes of bridging to Perkins, but has instead shouldered the entire load on his own. Taking on the closer role, it has been Jepsen that has helped to save the bullpen from the train wreck it had become.

4. Eduardo Escobar

Before the season began, it looked as though Danny Santana was the deserving recipient of the starting shortstop gig. Forget the fact that regression was going to set in, Escobar seemed best suited to a utility role. 122 games of production later, Escobar owns a .759 OPS, has launched a career high 12 home runs, and has compiled a 1.3 fWAR making any notions of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly.

With the Twins having more questions than answers at shortstop during points throughout 2015, Escobar has inserted himself into the heart of the discussion. He looks capable of holding down the gig going forward, and his late season surge has helped to keep the Twins on track in the midst of a Wild Card chase.

3. Miguel Sano

Given just under half a season to make a big league impact, Sano has done just that. In his time with the Twins, he has hit 17 home runs, the same amount of doubles, 51 runs batted in, batted .275, and compiled a .935 OPS. Forget the fact that he strikes out at an astronomical rate, his 45.6 hard hit rate is among the best in baseball, and he has tormented big league pitchers to the tune of a 2.1 fWAR earned solely at the plate.

Sano's full season numbers would likely have him in the league MVP discussion as much as they would have him running away with it for the Twins. Just 22 years old, he has entrenched himself as a cornerstone of the future, and 2015 was able to provide just a small glimpse of what is to come.

2. Trevor Plouffe

The Twins third basemen has followed up a breakout 2014 campaign with more of the same. After looking like a solid third base option a year ago, Plouffe has continued to do it on both sides of the game once again. His 22 homers are just two away from a career best, and his 84 runs batted in are a new career high. He also has set career bests in games played, runs, hits, and triples this season. On the defensive side, he's played as a league average fielder, and remains vastly improved over the shell of a hot corner defender that he was just a few years ago.

As I've continued to suggest all season, Plouffe should (and likely will) remain in the Twins plans going forward. An extension seems better served than a trade, and enjoying his late-blooming prime in a Twins uniform is something Paul Molitor could likely get used to.

1. Brian Dozier

In the first half of 2015, Brian Dozier looked every bit the frontrunner for the American League MVP. After his first All Star Game appearance, that narrative has changed, but his importance to the Twins has not. Pacing the club with a 3.8 fWAR, Dozier has produced across the board. The 28 year-old has set new career highs in hits, doubles, home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage, and OPS. In year one of the new deal, he's given Minnesota every bit of value out of his 4 year, $20 million extension.

No doubt, Dozier's second half struggles have once again been a disappointment to what otherwise was trending towards a remarkable season. However, in 2015, the power numbers have kept up, and while it's been the strikeouts that have spiked, the greater whole has been something Twins Territory has not seen for far too long. With the addition of youth coming, and Brian Dozier pacing the pack, the Twins are in a good place as they look towards the future.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

The Twins Silent Star

This season, the Minnesota Twins have risen well above expectations. More likely to lose 90 games than be a playoff team, Paul Molitor has his squad in a very unexpected position. Getting key contributions from big names like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, the Twins offense has been rolling of late. There's another star that has not gotten near the publicity deserved however.

Trevor Plouffe.

Thought of as a placeholder at third base until Sano forced a position changed for either himself or Plouffe, it has been Trevor who has evolved into a lunch-pail type player. After a breakout season in 2014, Plouffe has followed it up by coming to the field every day and simply getting it done. Putting substantial credibility into his impressive 2014 campaign, Plouffe is on pace for plenty of career highs this season.

Through 135 games (which is just one shy of his career high) Plouffe owns a .250/.313/.445 slash line. To this point, the Twins third-basemen has 127 hits, 31 doubles, four triples, 20 home runs, 79 runs batted in, and 44 walks. Per FanGraphs, Plouffe owns a 2.6 fWAR the second highest mark of his career.

Looking at detractors, the biggest slide has been Plouffe's defensive prowess. A year after posting a career best 6 DRS (defensive runs saved) at the hot corner, he owns a -2 mark this season. Plouffe's UZR (ultimate zone rating) has also taken a hit falling from 6.7 a year ago to just 2.7 this season. Effectively however, that's where the negatives end.

On pace to accumulate new career highs in games played, runs, hits, triples (already accomplished), runs batted in, and potentially walks and home runs, 2015 has been a smashing success. The 29 year-old former first round pick has begun to enter his prime, and the Twins are better for it. With Dozier and Sano slotting in close to him in the lineup, it has been Plouffe that has provided the stability.

Going forward, much has been made about the eventual position change that either Plouffe or Sano will need to make. Despite Plouffe having played everything but catcher, pitcher, and centerfield at the major league level, that decision doesn't need to be made yet. Plouffe can spell Joe Mauer when he needs to, and Sano can operate as the team's primary designated hitter. No matter how Molitor chooses to utilize Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer, there's room for each in the foreseeable future.

Knowing what Plouffe brings to the Twins, it's probably best for Minnesota to be looking to pay him, rather than to trade him. Currently signed on a one-year $4.8 million deal, arbitration will become expensive in 2016. Not a free agent until 2018, Minnesota could do right by Plouffe and save themselves some money by buying out the next two years of arbitration while grabbing a year of free agency in the process.

At 32 years-old in 2018, Plouffe should still be expected to be roughly the same player he currently is. Minnesota has been the beneficiary of a California kid who has gotten it done in a big way the last two seasons. It's now time to make sure he's part of the future as well.

Friday, July 24, 2015

The Twins Most Overlooked Cornerstone

In a season where the Minnesota Twins have outperformed expectations at a rather surprising rate, there's been plenty to get excited about. Outside of the results on the diamond, Minnesota has watched top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano make their big league debuts. Brian Dozier continues to be the best second basemen in all of baseball, and Paul Molitor has the home nine looking like a contender again.

In the midst of all of that, the Twins have another cornerstone piece that has flown under the radar while on the verge of stardom.

Currently holding down the hot corner, Trevor Plouffe has entered into the next tier for Minnesota. Rather than being seen as just a guy on the 25 man roster, it's time to give Plouffe his due. Consistently producing now, and developing over the last three seasons, Minnesota has a legitimate star in the making at third.

After being a failed shortstop, Plouffe made the transition to his new position. With 2012 being his first full time season at third, Plouffe took his lumps owning a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark. Year by year, the results have improved. In 2013, Plouffe pushed his DRS to 0, in 2014 it was 6, and this season he's on pace for 7 defensive runs saved. On top of making plays, his UZR (ultimate zone rating) has seen substantial improvement as well. Starting at -10.8 in 2012, it was pushed to -7.4 in 2013, 6.7 last season, and is on pace for a 7.9 mark this year.

It was always his fielding that was the more apparent as an issue, but Plouffe's stick has been impressive as he's aged as well. A torrid stretch in the 2012 summer allowed Plouffe to hit a career high 24 home runs, but his 55 RBI and .235/.301/.455 slash line left something to be desired. Since that point, he's made consistent improvements at the dish.

Staying steady in both 2013 and 2014 with 14 home runs, Plouffe pushed his RBI career high to 80 last season. An increase in walks (53 in 2014 as opposed to 34 in 2013) pushed his OBP to a career high .328 a season ago. As a whole however, it's in 2015 that Plouffe is putting it together. Thanks to a .312/.381/.570 stretch through the month May, Plouffe owns a .253/.315/.451 line on the season. He's on pace for 23 HR along with 94 RBI (a new career high) and 41 doubles (also would be a new career high).

After being worth just 0.5 fWAR in 2012, a season in which he was a home run or bust threat, and 0.3 fWAR in 2013, his arrow has trended straight up. Last season, Plouffe owned a 3.6 fWAR mark, which was good enough for fourth in the American league amongst third basemen. Trailing just Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Kyle Seager in 2015, Plouffe's 2.5 fWAR has him on pace for a final tally of 4.5 fWAR (a new career high).

Signed to a one-year $4.8 million arbitration deal this season, Plouffe is under team control until 2018. While I'm ok either way with how the Twins handle his contract situation, extending and paying Trevor Plouffe is something you'd be hard pressed not to get behind. As it stands, Plouffe is knocking on the door of stardom, and is one of the best third basemen in the big leagues.

At the end of the day, the Twins are going to need more than a piece here and there to return to the times of being perennial division champs. Having exciting young pieces is a great thing, but Trevor Plouffe should no longer be overlooked, he's the real deal.

Monday, May 18, 2015

Trevor Plouffe Has Given The Twins A Great Problem

Ann Heisenfelt / Associated Press
The year was 2011, and the Minnesota Twins had two players competing for one spot at the hot corner. One was a 19th round draft pick and coming off of a season that had him in the running for Rookie of the Year honors. The other was a first round draft pick that had just experienced his first cup of coffee. At the end of the year though, and into the future, it was the first round draft pick that would take over. Trevor Plouffe grabbed the role from Danny Valencia, and he hasn't looked back.

Of course knowing Plouffe's track record, there's little reason to suggest there haven't been bumps in the road. The 2012 season saw Plouffe play his first games at third for the Twins. In 95 games at third, Plouffe committed 17 errors, was worth -8 defensive runs saved, and owned an ugly -10.8 UZR. While it's one thing to suggest that the only way to go from there was up, the heights Plouffe would find himself at didn't immediately seem apparent.

In 2013, the Twins new third basemen made 13 errors in 120 games and owned a -7.4 UZR rating. Bringing his DRS to an even 0 was a step in the right direction however. Then the turnaround happened, and in a big way. Last season, despite making 14 errors, Plouffe owned a 6.7 UZR and was worth 6 DRS. Not only did he play the best third base of his career, but he did so across 127 games, also a career high. Even better, Plouffe hadn't only made stride in the field, but at the plate as well.

Back in 2012, his first season at the hot corner, Plouffe used a scorching July to carry himself to a career high 24 home runs. While he has yet to match that output, 2013 and 2014 saw big advancements in other offensive areas. The California native carried a .254/.309/.392 slash line in 2013 with 14 HR and 52 RBI. He backed that up a year later in 2014 by slashing .258/.328/.423 and launching 14 HR with a career high 80 RBI. Plouffe also grew a greater patience and command at the dish by walking 53 times, nearly doubling his past career high.

Following along the same trend that he has laid out the past two seasons, Plouffe has started 2015 on a similar note. Currently owning a .254/.336/.423 slash line with 5 HR and 18 RBI, it looks like the production will continue. In 34 games at the hot corner, he's made just 3 errors while compiling an early 1.6 UZR.

Not too long ago, Trevor Plouffe was seen as a player holding down a position until someone else came along. As uber prospect Miguel Sano gained steam, it appeared that Plouffe was just keeping his eventual role warm. Since, it's not the Sano has cooled, but that Plouffe has transformed himself to be on of the best third baggers in Major League Baseball. A guy that owned -0.4 and -0.9 fWAR in his first two seasons, Plouffe was worth a 3.6 fWAR last season, and has already jumped out to a 1.1 fWAR mark in 2015.

At some point, the Twins will have to decide how to position players like Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, and Miguel Sano to make everyone fit. While that time isn't yet hear, there's little reason to suggest that Plouffe hasn't given the Twins a great problem to have. Instead of just being a guy holding down a spot, he has become the guy on a team that looks poised to turn the corner. With a possible payday looming, Plouffe has no one but himself to thank for cashing in. The transformation has been fun to watch, and it may just be the beginning of it.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Twins Poised For An Offensive Breakout In 2015

Twins infielder Eduardo Escobar hits a single against Tampa Bay pitcher Brandon Gomes in the fifth inning. (Pioneer Press: John Autey)
Last season, the Minnesota Twins finished in the top third of Major League Baseball when it came to offense. Although the lineup was makeshift more often than not, and contributions came from odd places, Minnesota plated plenty of runs. Early on in spring training, it appeared that repeating that success might be somewhat of a concern. At this point, the question has become just how much better the team can be?

To this point, the Twins have hit 14 home runs in spring training. A season ago, the club hit 16, and was led by Brandon Waring with two. Brian Dozier and Kennys Vargas both have hit three for the Twins already, with Eduardo Escobar adding his second in the form of a grand slam today. Torii Hunter, Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto, and Joe Mauer are all still without home runs due to their lack of playing time. What that suggests is that the Twins could actually be in a better position offensively than they were a season ago.
It's been noted plenty, but reminding you that Danny Santana and Kurt Suzuki are going to regress is something that's important. Santana simply cannot keep up with his .400+ BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and Suzuki put up some of the best offensive numbers of his career. While the Twins will miss players like those two being on base due to timely hits over the course of a game, they could be amongst the leagues best in longballs.

Looking at the players that should break camp on the Twins 25 man roster, the club has a handful of players that should push towards 20 home runs a piece. Last season, the Twins had just two players each that mark (Dozier 23, Arcia 20). There's no doubt that with the help of hitting coach Tom Brunansky, and the lineup construction of new manager Paul Molitor, that the club should see an increased power output.

There's still roughly three weeks of spring training left, and the Twins will continue to fine tune their approaches at the plate. As the exhibition season rolls on, expecting the power display to dull is probably shortsighted. Having nearly reached their 2014 mark with plenty of time left to play, expecting the Twins to double their spring training home run total from a year ago is a very real possibility.

When we head north, making sure that output carries over is the goal. Obviously Target Field presents somewhat of a heightened challenge considering it's dimensions. That being said, the Twins have hit very few home runs that have left the park with any doubt of their intentions. Seeing the power display being put on by players such as Eddie Rosario and Escobar only adds to the excitement.

If the Twins can in fact get their pitching in order as expected, the offense should help out to an even further extent in 2015. Should Molitor choose to tweak his lineup and allow Mauer to bat second followed by Dozier, the Twins could benefit from more multi-run round-trippers as well. At the end of the day, it all comes down to the Twins dispelling many of the early causes for pause this spring. The offensive output may have lagged behind from the get go, but there's no doubt this team has plenty of sluggers on it.

Spitballing somewhat here, this is what I see for the Twins home run leaderss when the dust settles:
  1. Oswaldo Arcia 31+
  2. Trevor Plouffe 25+
  3. Kennys Vargas 24+
  4. Brian Dozier 21+
  5. Josmil Pinto 18+