Rise And Fall: The Twins Youth

 

The 2015 Minnesota Twins were an exceptional story and breathed life back into baseball fans throughout Twins Territory. From veteran contributions, to rookie additions, Paul Molitor's club had it all. In the year of the rookie, the Twins did their part promoting a handful of youngsters. It's going to be that core, that carries the Twins will into the future.

While Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario were the young names that highlighted the Twins 25 man roster, it's been noted for a while that the farm system has plenty of top tier talent. Excluding those two as well as the Byron Buxton, Trevor May, and Tyler Duffey types, taking a closer look at what's coming for the Twins is a fun exercise. It wasn't all pretty this season however.

For every Sano-type story, there's a Joe Benson type flop. Now, with all the games in the rear view mirror, it's time to take a look at a handful of risers and fallers among the Twins prospect ranks.

3 Up

Max Kepler (#6 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)

What isn't there to say about the 22 year old German? Kepler slashed .322/.416/.531 in 112 games for Double-A Chattanooga. He added 13 triples and smashed nine home runs with 71 runs batted in. His 32 doubles were a career high, and he actually walked (67) more than he struck out (63). On the prospect radar since being signed as a teenager, it was quite the coming out party.

At this point, it's pretty hard to argue Kepler being any lower in the Twins organization than right behind Buxton and Jose Berrios. He's going to get a shot for an extended stay with Minnesota next season, and if he can use his 2015 as a launching point, he'll be off to a good start.

Stephen Gonsalves (#9 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)

Following the same progression he's enjoyed each year as a professional, Gonsalves advanced through two levels in 2015. After nine games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he made 15 starts for High-A Fort Myers. On the season, the 20 year-old owned a 2.01 ERA across 24 starts. He struck out batters at an 8.8 K/9 clip and walked 3.6 per nine. Allowing just four homers and 34 runs in 134.1 innings, Gonsalves enjoyed an exceptional campaign.

Adding to the Twins already impressive minor league pitching depth, Gonsalves put together his best season as a pro. Still just 20 at the beginning of next season, his meteoric rise could have him in the big leagues in record time. He needs to work on command issues that showed in Fort Myers, but there's no doubt this kid looks special.

J.T. Chargois (#11 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)

Chargois has been with the Twins organization since 2012, but was pitching in just his second season after suffering injuries. At Double-A Chattanooga, he was generally regarded as behind relievers like Nick Burdi and Jake Reed, but put together an impressive season of his own. Despite a few hiccups along the way, he compiled a 2.62 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 in 48 innings. He gave up only 38 hits, and just one home run all season, and looked the part of the dominating pitcher the Twins drafted out of Rice University.

Regardless of where he starts the season in 2016, Chargois should find himself with a ticket to the big leagues in short order. His stuff will no doubt be an asset for the Twins bullpen, and he's got arguably higher upside than almost anyone at Triple-A Rochester. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chargois is the first pitcher that surfaces with the Twins next season.

3 Down

Jorge Polanco (#4 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)

Polanco was sent up and down and all around during the 2015 season, and he actually put together a solid year. He moves down though because of what showed up as some concerns. Following his trip back to Double-A Chattanooga after a brief stint with the Twins, Polanco slashed just .261/.344/.357 in his final 28 games. He had just six extra base hits in that time period, and struck out nearly once a game (26). For a guy known for his bat, that's not ideal. Then there's his glove. Polanco made 28 errors in 2015, and eight of them came in just 19 games a Triple-A Rochester.

The reality is that Polanco isn't a shortstop. His arm is questionable there, and he's a second basemen without a doubt. The Twins already have one of those, and that makes him somewhat expendable. If Minnesota is going to look at some bigger trades this offseason, Polanco's name is one I would dangle. He's going to hit for someone, and probably well, but I don't think it will be the Twins.

Kohl Stewart (#7 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)

After the way his 2014 ended (with an injury), Stewart no doubt wanted to take a big step forward in 2015. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. The 2013 first round draft pick compiled a 3.20 ERA across 22 starts. He owned a 1.384 WHIP and a 3.1 BB/9 rate, while his strikeouts plummeted to a paltry 4.9 K/9 mark with High-A Fort Myers. To say the 20 year old took a step backwards would probably be an understatement.

Right now, Stewart is still young, and has that on his side. The issue though, is that regression has set in significantly already, and he has yet to hit Double-A. For Stewart to get back to the top of the rotation starter projection he was once billed as, an immense turnaround is going to need to be coming. He's another name prospect the Twins could use as a trade chip, but there's probably no time his value will be less. The Twins have to want more from Kohl, as no doubt he does from himself as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall off top 100 lists, but hopefully that is motivation for the year ahead.

Travis Harrison (#19 on MLB Pipeline Twins Top 20)

Back in 2011, the Twins made Harrison the 50th overall selection in the draft. Out of high school, Harrison was going to have plenty to prove prior to getting to the big leagues. Now 22, Harrison played in 115 games at Double-A Chattanooga this season. He slashed a career worst .240/.363/.356 hitting just 23 doubles, five homers, and driving in 54. It was his fourth year in the organization, and the 4th level he's been at. After a career best season at Fort Myers in 2014, expectations were much higher this time around.

Moved exclusively to the outfield this season (he played one game at first), Harrison needed to continue being the doubles hitter he became a season ago (33). Instead, his average dropped, while the power remained the same. As a first round selection, the growth and development should be ahead of where it is now. Harrison still has some time on his side, but he's on the verge of becoming more depth than anything else.

For Twins, Future May Mirror Cubs

The Twins Way, it's a moniker that has been thrown around Twins Territory for years. Often synonymous with feelings of angst, disgust, or displeasure, the Twins Way is more mocked than it is celebrated. Whether it exists or not, the Twins Way may be more in line with the current trajectory of another franchise than it is given credit for. That other franchise won 97 games in 2015, and plays in the National League Wild Card game this season.

That other franchise, the Chicago Cubs.

Back in the playoffs for the first time since 2008, the Chicago Cubs ended a seven year drought with their impressive 2015. The last time Chicago had a winning season, their record was 83-78. A lot has changed within the organization since then. Theo Epstein, one of the greatest minds in the sport, is in the front office, and Joe Maddon is now leading from the dugout. Looking drastically different as well, is the personnel on the field.

Having strung together losing seasons, the Cubs have constructed one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. Players like Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Addison Russell have graduated from it. They're at the big league level now pacing a very talented team. Also, additions of players like Jon Lester have helped to bolster a rotation that touts a deserving Cy Young candidate in Jake Arrieta.

A far cry from the losing seasons of recent memory, Epstein has put together a top tier club through trades, drafts, and signings. In doing so, he's traveled through a rebuild process that now have the Cubs in position to compete for years to come. That journey begins with the NL Wild Card.

For the Twins, the blueprint is laid, and many of the boxes have already been checked off. Strong drafts, healthy farm system, key international signings, they've all been accomplished. What the Twins have yet to do is make those key trades. While dealing like crazy shouldn't be in the cards, getting the one or two pieces to put them over the top could be the next step.

Minnesota is in a very strong position heading into 2016. The AL Central has turned over, with the Royals, Twins, and Indians being the cream of the crop. Paul Molitor has proven to be a great hire, and his club is blossoming in the best way possible. With a few more big name prospects expected to contribute at a high level as soon as 2016, the Wild Card should be within reach.

Should Terry Ryan be in a position to go get a frontline starter, or upgrade a position of need like catcher, the Twins could be picking up some of the final pieces to the puzzle. Well on their way to following in the footsteps of what has been one of the coolest stories in the National League this season, the Twins can continue to follow the Cubs.

The similarities and parallels between the trajectory and action of the two clubs is somewhat astonishing. From the organizations themselves all the way down to their top prospects in Bryant and Buxton, it's hard to be disappointed with the potential route for the Twins.

Right now, the Twins are enjoying an early offseason after finishing 83-79. Tonight as they tune into the one game playoff in Pittsburgh though, they could be watching themselves a year from now.

Passing The Grade: The Twins Breakdown

In 2015, the Minnesota Twins exceeding expectations by an immense amount. Expected by man to once again finish at the bottom of the AL Central and hope to stave off 90 losses, first year manager Paul Molitor had his club doing anything but. While ultimately the club came up just shorty of the playoffs, it was a season of much more good than bad.

Going into 2016, the year in which the Twins should begin to be a serious contender once again, understanding who contributed most is important. Taking a look at the roster, it's time for you 2015 grades to be handed out. Sticking mostly to 25 man roster guys (with a few exceptions), here we go:

Catchers:

Kurt Suzuki (C-)

Suzuki headed into 2015 fresh off of a stellar 2014 season. An All Star and recipient of a shiny contract extension, the bar needed to be reached was set incredibly high. Unfortunately, Suzuki reverted back to what he's been in the big leagues, a run of the mill veteran catcher. Owning a -0.1 fWAR on the season, Suzuki was a defensive liability (throwing out an MLB worst 15% of base stealers), and he did little at the plate. He'll be back in 2016, but he has some serious improvement to work on.

Chris Herrmann (D)

It's hard to fault a guy like Herrmann for being on a big league roster. He doesn't belong there, and it's indicative of the Twins catching issue. He isn't anything special behind the plate, and his .146/.214/.272 slash line across 45 games was pathetic. Crazy enough, he produced a higher fWAR (0.1) than Kurt Suzuki in 2015.

First Base

Joe Mauer (C)

If you've yet to gather it yet, a C is being used as the middle ground, and that's exactly where Joe Mauer was in 2015. Owning a 0.3 fWAR, he was just above replacement level for the 2015 Twins. The power numbers were up, but everything else was down, and he's here to stay. Forget the contract (it doesn't matter at this point), Minnesota needs Mauer to replicate his success with RISP across a few more situations in 2016. His .309 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the lowest of his career, but his 29.2 hard hit percentage is probably a large part of the culprit there.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (B+)

While we've reached into the B tier for the first time, this grade should have been even higher. Dozier looked like a legitimate MVP candidate on the way to his first All Star game, and then the second half came. For the second year in a row, he's collapsed down the stretch, and it was a massive detriment to the Twins playoff hopes. In total though, Dozier owned a 3.4 fWAR and his 28 homers were a new career high. 2016 needs to be a more consistent and full season from Dozier if the Twins are going to make October noise.

Shortstop

Eduardo Escobar (B)

The Twins had faith in Danny Santana despite him being primed for regression. When everything hit the fan in the field, Escobar was there to pick things up. He carried the club offensively in September, and made any notion of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly. Earning the spot for the foreseeable future, Escobar compiled a 1.5 fWAR in just 127 games. No longer just a utility man, the Twins continue to cash in on Francisco Liriano's return.

Eduardno Nunez (C+)

A guy that could have been a DFA candidate prior to the season, Nunez actually came up big for the Twins. Providing positional flexibility, he also brought the lumber more often than not. In limited at bats, he hit .282/.327/.431 with four homers. His 1.1 fWAR was among the Twins leaders, and his inexpensive contract made it all the more enticing.

Third Base

Trevor Plouffe (B)

For the second season in a row, Plouffe has improved as a whole. Likely a late-peaking player, Plouffe should be in line for a new contract this offseason. Whether or not the sides can come to a deal would seem another story. Plouffe followed up his 3.6 fWAR 2014 with a 2.5 fWAR this season. He set career highs in games, runs, RBI, and hits. Another solid season for a player the Twins once viewed as reaching the end of his rope.

Miguel Sano (A-)

Somewhat out of whack by playing only a portion of the year, it's hard to overvalue the production that the slugger gave the Twins. 2.0 fWAR, 18 homers, and 52 RBI in just 80 games, a full season would have been unreal. The strikeout numbers are likely going to set a Twins record (possibly as soon as next season), but his hard hit rate (43.2%) makes him incredibly dangerous each time he steps in the box. Whether he DH's for the next couple of years or not, Sano is already an incredible asset in Minnesota.

Outfield

Aaron Hicks (B-)

Making a monumental leap forward (as I'd suggested he would), Hicks became a regular for the Twins this season. Figuring things out at the plate, and continuing to be a defensive stud, he produced a 1.5 fWAR. Hicks will likely move to right field when Byron Buxton is ready to take over full time, but his outlook for the future has shifted. Once seeming like a lost cause, it would now appear he could be a legitimate 20-20 guy.

Eddie Rosario (B+)

With the other big names making debuts for the Twins in 2015, Rosario tends to get lost in the crowd. However, he put together a season worthy of ROY consideration on his own. His 2.3 fWAR was earned through his ridiculous defensive ability in left (both assists and DRS ranking among MLB's best), and his free swinging tendency. On base issues are still there, and he's going to need to strike out less in the future, but it was a great start for the Puerto Rican.

Torii Hunter (C+)

Hunter's grade is somewhat difficult to quantify for the Twins. He provided an immeasurable asset in the clubhouse, but was relatively mediocre on the diamond. His power played at times, but his dismal August was unfortunate. He picked things up in September, but there's no denying he was a defensive liability throughout the season. Hunter will be welcomed back by the Twins in 2016 if he wants in; I'm not sure he should be.

Byron Buxton (C-)

In his first 46 games at the big league level, Buxton was actually worht -0.5 fWAR. Coming almost entirely from his struggles at the plate, this season was more about growth than anything for Buxton. Now with an offseason to prepare for what he saw, expect 2016 to showcase more of the elite tools we've heard about. Showing off plus defense, and a better approach to conclude the season, Buxton's future remains bright.

Shane Robinson (C)

Brought in as a fourth outfielder prior to some of the farm graduations taking place, Robinson absolutely did his job this season. He provided the Twins with outfield depth, and even hit for the first few months. He played above replacement level (0.2 fWAR) and was exactly what Minnesota expected of him.

Rotation

Phil Hughes (C+)

After an impressive first season with the Twins, Hughes was bound to take steps backwards this season. He continued to walk no one, but he also struck out batters at a much slower clip. Allowing what was trending towards (if not for DL time) a career high in home runs given up, Hughes has plenty to work on in the year ahead.

Ervin Santana (A-)

The suspension shot Santana's season down before it began, but once he was back on track, the Twins big payday looked great. Spare a couple rocky starts early, it was Santana down the stretch that looked every bit the part of an ace. Striking out batters at an impressive clip, while owning a sub 3.00 ERA across his final handful of starts, the Twins have to be excited about the top of their rotation in 2016.

Tyler Duffey (A)

After being tagged by the best offense in baseball, Duffey looked like a major league vet. He was striking batters out, he wasn't allowing runs, and his curveball was confusing major league hitters. Forcing himself into the rotation discussion for 2016, Duffey's debut was much more impressive than could have been expected.

Tommy Milone (B)

As somewhat of a swingman, Milone's role became more defined as the season went on. Becoming more of a reliable starter and more entrenched in the starting five, Milone was able to settle in late. He put up his fair share of clunkers, but he should be looking at an arbitration pay day from the Twins.

Kyle Gibson (A-)

It's hard to suggest that Kyle Gibson did anything but take a massive step forward in 2015. He was one of the Twins most consistent pitchers, and he was able to come up big when needed most. he set career highs across the board, and when the dust settled, ended up being the Twins starter called upon most by Paul Molitor. He may be trade bait going forward, but if not, he's going to help solidify what is a much improved rotation.

Mike Pelfrey (B-)

More often than not the subject of Twins pitching vitriol, Pelfrey was an integral part of this team. While he put up his fair share of clunkers, and he wasn't good on the road, it was often Pelfrey in big spots that kept the Twins afloat. Finally producing a season worthy of the money Minnesota had paid him, Pelfrey can enter free agency owning an ERA in the top third of the American League in 2015.

Ricky Nolasco (D+)

It's hard to grade a guy that can't stay on the field, but hopefully the Twins take care of that problem this offseason. Nolasco put together a nice stretch of starts prior to his ankle injury, but then missed the majority of the season. He returned in the final week and looked the part of a bad pitcher he has been for the vast majority of his Twins tenure.

Bullpen

Blaine Boyer (B+)

The season is over, so we can now take a breath on Boyer. His ERA was significantly better than his FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggested it should have been, at this point it doesn't matter however. A lottery ticket out of spring training, Boyer was a low cost option that gave the Twins way more than they could have bargained for.

Neal Cotts (C)

Acquired for next to nothing from the Brewers, the Twins can't be too disappointed with the production. His numbers with Molitor's club were less than impressive, and I'm not sure he should be in the fold heading into 2016. Either way though, Cotts was markedly average in every way.

Brian Duensing (D)

Once again, the Twins offered Duensing arbitration over the offseason. Once again, Duensing proved to be the pitcher that doesn't miss enough bats, and provides very little out of the pen. His ERA was ugly, and his peripherals did little to help an already bad Twins bullpen. It would seem to be an egregious mistake if Duensing is asked to come back in 2016.

Casey Fien (C-)

Fien has been bumped from his setup role by the Twins, but still remains one of the better arms in their pen. That's indicative of the state in which the bullpen was in, as well as Fien's own struggles. He had an ok year as a whole, but he blew up big too often, and generally was hard to trust down the stretch. He'll be back in 2016, but needs to be a part of a better core.

J.R. Graham (D+)

Hidden and then over-exposed, Graham followed the tumultuous path of a Rule 5 draft pick. In a bad bullpen Molitor and Neil Allen had little choice but to deploy Graham at times. He held his own for the most part, but looked the part of a guy that had never pitched above Double-A. He'll head to Triple-A in 2016, and his next big league experience should be a different story. More beneficial to him than the Twins, Graham's experience this season should help his development long term.

Kevin Jepsen (A)

You probably can't overstate just how valuable Jepsen was the Minnesota. He came in at a critical time and gave the Twins everything they could have hoped for and then some. Saving games, pitching in high leverage, and being next to a sure thing in the 9th, Jepsen was a massive asset down the stretch. Under team control in 2016, Jepsen's acquisition was one of the best moves Terry Ryan has made in a while.

Trevor May (A-)

Converted from a starter to help a bullpen in desperate need, May was even better in relief. He ended up owning the 8th inning and operating as the Twins setup man. Giving the bullpen a strikeout punch with heightened velocity, May looked the part of a lock down reliever. He's going to be brought into spring training as a starter, but there's no guarantee that's the role in which he leaves it.

Ryan O'Rourke (C-)

Initially called upon to be a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), O'Rourke was quickly asked to do more. In a bad bullpen, having specialized arms is farm from an awarded luxury. While having to pitch in less than advantageous situations, he was exposed and looked the part of a minor leaguer out of place.

Glen Perkins (B)

Much like Dozier above, this is a grade that should be so much higher for the Twins opening day closer. Perkins was lights out prior to the All Star Break, and earned another trip to the game. Following that point though, he was nothing short of horrendous. Blown saves, DL stints, and ineffective pitching, Perkins hurt the Twins by continuing to trot out to the mound. Had the bullpen been in a better place, Minnesota would have been better off telling Perkins to head into the offseason about a month early.

Michael Tonkin (C)

Tonkin was jerked around by the Twins more than any other minor leaguer this season. Called up and down multiple times, eventually pitching in 26 games, he has the ability to stay. Ending with a 3.47 ERA, he should be given a shot out of the gate in 2016, and likely provides a higher ceiling than some of the options that Molitor had at his disposal this season.

Playoff Season Is Here: So Who Wins?

After 162 games, the Major League Baseball regular season is in the books. We are to the point where this is what every team is playing for throughout the season. October baseball, and a run to the World Series title. While the Twins ended up falling just short, while keeping things interesting in 2015, the field is plenty loaded this season.

Looking at both of the American League and National League sides of things, here's what I have for October baseball:

AL Wild Card

Despite the fade at the end, and the eventual slide out of the AL West lead, the Houston Astros find themselves in the postseason. Taking on the New York Yankees in a one-game winner move on matchup, it's Dallas Keuchel against Masahiro Tanaka.

The Yankees have seemed to hang aroudn for more than I believe they should have most of the season, and Houston's offense should give Tanaka plenty of problems. Forget what Keuchel has done on the road, he's got the upper hand here. Give me Houston over New York.

AL Division Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Texas Rangers

Hard to argue with the best team in baseball post All Star Break. The Blue Jays went for it in grabbing big names at the deadline, and the offense should be plenty to get it done against somewhat of a lackluster Rangers pitching staff. If it isn't, there's always David Price and Marcus Stroman to answer to.

Kansas City Royals over Houston Astros

The Royals faded down the stretch, and that's not the ideal way to close out a regular season. However, there may not be a more complete team in baseball. The Astros get to the division series, but the run ends there. Too much pitching, too good of a defense, and an offense that can get it done. The Royals advance.

AL Championship Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Kansas City Royals

Home field or not, Toronto remains the best team in the big leagues right now. Again, not one-sided, they have enough to get it done both offensively and on the mound. Not the Cinderella the Royals were a season ago, the Blue Jays take their favorite tag and run with it.

NL Wild Card

Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates

Gerrit Cole is lights out against the Cubs at home, but Jake Arrieta is lights out against everyone everywhere. My NL Cy Young runner up carries the Cubs in the one game playoff, and the offense of youth scores enough to move on.

NL Division Series

New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers

This series is going to be interesting with the Dodgers all but guaranteed the first two games behind Kershaw and Greinke. Despite an ugly end to the year, look for the Mets offense to wake back up, and their pitching to compete as well. I think this series goes five games, but give me the Mets in a close call.

Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals

Injuries at the wrong time, and pitching missing some important arms, it's an imperfect disaster for the Cardinals. The Cubs were scorching to end the regular season, and there's no reason to think Joe Maddon's club is stopping any time soon. Give me Theo's kids here.

NL Championship Series

Chicago Cubs over New York Mets

With all intentions of ending the World Series drought after getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2008, Chicago will come in guns blazing. After surviving two series already, Joe Maddon's team will be well prepared for Terry Collins and the Mets. With Matt Harvey's availability likely in question at this point, and Arrieta expected to be rolling, the Cubs get back to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

World Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago Cubs

David vs. Goliath of sorts, the Blue Jays enter as the favorite with the Cubs the team unexpected in this spot. While Chicago should give Toronto a challenge, the Blue Jays should continue to be too much. Behind Josh Donaldson and an impressive offense, along with a formidable pitching staff, the deadline moves pay off north of the border. Give me the Blue Jays winning their third World Series and first since 1993.

The Unfortunate Half Of It- Dozier And Perk Do It Again

By all respective measures, the Minnesota Twins 2015 season has come to an end. Despite a very exciting month of September, and a Wild Card playoff chase that gave Twins Territorians something to tune into, Paul Molitor's squad has reached the end. While 2015 is no doubt a resounding success given the expectations, it remains 2016 that is Minnesota's goal. Unfortunately, two massive question marks remain.

Going into 2016, the Twins roster will prominently feature a handful of high ceiling and widely talented youngsters. Beyond Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, there will be contributions expected from many others. At the top though, it will be the Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier types that are once again expected to carry that squad. The problem is, the task may be more than they can handle.

For the second year in a row, both Perkins and Dozier went from two of the Twins best players, to some of their absolute worst.

In the first half of the season, Dozier looked the part of an MVP candidate. Prior to the break, the first time All Star slashed .256/.328/.513 with 26 doubles, 19 home runs, 50 runs batted in, and 67 runs scored. The second half being a different story, Dozier slashed just .209/.280/.361 adding just 13 doubles, nine homers, 26 runs batted in, and 34 runs. To say he had fallen off would be putting it lightly.

The tale of two seasons for Dozier was widely apparent in his ever increasing strikeout rate. Being a high on base percentage player, his lower batting average never should have been questioned. In 2015 though, it became a problem. Having never struck out more than 129 times in a season, Dozier's new Twins record of 147 strikeouts (and counting), combined with just 61 walks, became a problem. Whether conditioning is to blame or not, for a second straight year, the star second basemen put together only one complete half.

And then there's Perkins.

Unlike Dozier, Perkins can more easily have outcomes directly tied to him. In the first half, he was flawless. Saving 28 straight games while compiling a 1.21 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a paltry .188/.217/.246 slash line, the Minnesota native secured a second straight All Star game appearance. That's when everything went south.

In his first post All Star appearance, Perkins took his first blown save of the season (and inevitable probability). However, on July 25 against the Yankees, he served up home runs to Alex Rodriguez (his third of the night) and John Ryan Murphy, in a game that would be the turning point in his 2015. From the break on, Perkins saved just four games, blew three, and owned a 7.32 ERA. Opposing hitters relished at the opportunity to hit against a guy allowing a .360/.394/.674 slash line.

Looking back as the Twins will miss the playoffs by just a few games, it was Perkins direct influence in the ninth that could have them in a different place. In a team game with the outcome determine at multiple different points, that's not a load Perkins should shoulder on his own, but it's one he did nothing to help. Spending time recovering from injury, the Twins closer came back ineffective and a detriment to the club.

Hoping Molitor would do something different is somewhat of a tricky situation. In regards to Dozier, the direct tie to wins and losses is not apparent. He gave the Twins little at the plate down the stretch, but remained an asset in the field. Hoping the slump would be busted eventually, he needed to be out there every night. With Perkins, the story is much different. The ineffectiveness was apparent for quite some time, and even worse when returning from injury. Shutting him down weeks before the season's end could have spared Minnesota a few desperately needed victories.

For the second year in a row, both players faded down the stretch. Last offseason, Dozier vowed to work on conditioning to hopefully stave off this exact outcome. For Perkins, the future remains murkier. When at his best, he's an elite closer and among the top in the American League. On Friday night, he was at his worst, cost the Twins their final opportunity, and then lacked the leadership to own it in the clubhouse following the final pitch.

In 2016, Paul Molitor and the Twins will have to count on both players to be key contributors once again, the question remains, will he be able to?

Duffey Puts A Bow On An Impressive Debut

2015 was supposed to be and has been the year of the prospect for the Minnesota Twins. Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler have all made their big league debuts. In one of the most impressive farm systems in all of baseball, the Twins had plenty of big names to bring to Target Field. It has been Tyler Duffey however, that has been arguably the most impressive of them all.

With young pitching talents like Trevor May and Alex Meyer being highly touted, and Jose Berrios being highly anticipated, it's been Duffey who has somewhat flown under the radar. The Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts opening day starter in 2015 (over Berrios), made quick work of the minor leagues this season. Debuting with the Twins on August 5, his time had quickly come.

After a rocky first outing against baseball's best offense in the Toronto Blue Jays, Duffey has been nothing short of spectacular since. Across his final nine starts, Duffey owned a 5-0 record with the Twins winnings eight of those nine games. Duffey's ERA was a glowing 2.25 and he held opposing hitters to a .244/.304/.349 slash line. His 8.4 K/9 was best among Twins starters, and he struck out more than seven batters five times in nine outings.

Pushing his innings further than any other point in his career, Duffey was reliable for Molitor's squad as well. He went more than six innings in all but two of his final nine starts, and he pitched into the seventh twice. The final three trips to the mound saw Duffey throw 101, 112, and 102 pitches respectively.

In his first time at the big league level, it's looked every bit like Duffey can hold his own. His 3.24 FIP suggests his 3.10 ERA is substantiated. He's given up hard hit contact just 24.9% of the time while inducing ground balls 49.7% of the time. Duffey has surrendered line drives just 19.4% of the time, and has given up only four home runs across 59 innings.

Then there's the effectiveness of his curveball. Duffey has twirled his spinner 39.1% of the time this season, and while that number is high, it's because it's been really good. Across all of his pitches, Duffey has induced swings at pitches outside of the strike zone 34.2% of the time, and has benefited from swinging strikes 9.8% of the time.

As a whole, it's pretty hard to quantify Tyler Duffey's 2015 season as anything but a smashing success. While he doesn't get the praise that some other top pitching prospects do, he's earned the recognition all on his own in his first experience at the big league level. I'm not positive Duffey starts in the rotation for the 2016 Twins, but he's made a very compelling argument for himself.

After seeing Duffey's success this season, Jose Berrios has to be salivating at his upcoming opportunity in the year ahead. The Twins pairing the two together in the rotation for years to come would be an ideal scenario, and so far, the plan is being executed flawlessly.

The Twins, Then And Now

The Twins are in the midst of a heated race for the final AL Wild Card spot, and while they are running out of games, getting to this point has been a heck of a journey. Having suffered through four straight 90 loss campaigns, being back on the positive side of things is a nice change. Winning isn't new to this franchise however, and the most interesting aspect may be just how the winning takes place.

2010 saw the Twins compile a 94-68 record under Ron Gardenhire, good enough for first in the AL Central. Fueled by an incredible 48-26 in the second half, that club rolled into the playoffs with momentum on their side. The record wasn't the only difference though, as Gardenhire's 25 was of a different breed as well.

Valued in order by fWAR, the 2010 Twins were led by Joe Mauer (5.0), Justin Morneau (4.9), Jim Thome (3.0), Orlando Hudson (3.0), and Denard Span (2.6). In total, 11 offensive players have fWAR seasons above 1.0. The rotation was filled out by five double-digit game winners in Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey, and Gardenhire had a capable pen.

Looking at the construction of the roster as a whole, that team was filled by a handful of veterans performing in or after their prime. Thome brought spark to the Twins while Mauer and Morneau carried the club. Span and Hudson remained assets, and the playoffs were made as an execution of the expectations laid out prior to the season.

Fast forward to where we are now. This Twins club currently has 82 wins, with just four games left. By fWAR, the club's top performers are Brian Dozier (3.6), Trevor Plouffe (2.4), Eddie Rosario (2.3), Miguel Sano (2.2), and Aaron Hicks (1.5). On the season, the 2015 Twins have just seven players with fWAR totals over 1.0 (which would add just Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez to the fold). Among the final rotation, only two pitchers (Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes) have double digit win totals.

There's little room for argument that the current Twins squad holds a candle to the one that last made the playoffs. Forget the fact that the playoffs aren't yet a reality, and 90 wins certainly won't be. The talent discrepancy between the two squads is apparent on paper alone. What is also very simple to see however, is what was and is next for both teams.

Four years of turmoil came out of the last playoff squad, with the most likely outcome this time around being at least four years of playoff runs. A younger organization filled with high profile prospects trending in the right direction is generally a recipe for good things to come. Comparing directly doesn't do wonders for this team, but there's no doubt it owns the edge in the future trends category.

It's easy to see the Twins current team and the one from the last playoff run aren't in the same boat, but there's little doubt this one is going places soon. Knowing how much fun this run has been, and that it's just the tip of the iceberg, it's best to enjoy what was, and be excited about what will be.