Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Tops On The Twins Farm: The Best In The Organization

Monday marked the end of the regular season for the Twins minor league affiliates at the Triple, Double, and Single-A levels. Only Double-A Chattanooga and Single-A Cedar Rapids will play in the postseason, so it also marked the end of the season for the majority of the farm. With the Twins having one of the best crops of talent in all of baseball, it's time to look back at each team's star on the mound and at the dish.

With the Twins having drafted high, as well as grabbing quality prospects in recent years, there's plenty to get excited about on each farm team's roster. Starting at the rookie league level in Elizabethton, here's who I've tabbed as the standout performers in the Twins system for the 2015 season.

Elizabethton Twins (34-34)

Pitcher: Dereck Rodriguez

In his first full season as a starting pitcher, the son of Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, did everything asked of him. In claiming the Appalachian League's pitcher of the year award, Rodriguez compiled a 2.85 ERA across 12 starts. He owned an 8.3 K/9 while walking just 1.5 per nine innings. Rodriguez totaled 75.1 IP and was the clear-cut ace for E-Town.

Rodriguez should start next season at Low-A Cedar Rapids, with the opportunity to move somewhat quickly. He'll be 24 midway through the year, and if he can carry some of his Rookie League success, he could end up finishing 2016 with Fort Myers. There's plenty of bloodline pedigree here, and Rodriguez put himself on the map as a pitcher to watch.

Hitter: LaMonte Wade

The Twins took wade in the 9th round of the 2015 Major League Baseball draft. A college kid out of the University of Maryland, Wade did nothing but hit for E-Town. He played in 64 of the 68 rookie league games and owned a .312/.428/.506 slash line. His nine home runs were impressive, and his five triples flashed plenty of speed as well. Wade is finishing his 2015 helping to add offense to the Low-A Cedar Rapids team in the playoffs.

Wade has plenty of speed in the outfield, and should start the season in Iowa with the Kernels. He'll be 22 and would be another left-handed outfield prospect for the Twins. A sure-handed fielder that came up with 11 assists for E-Town, he could force his way into the future youth movement. He's a ways away from gaining real steam, but it was an impressive debut.

Cedar Rapids Kernels (77-63)

Pitcher: Felix Jorge

For a team that had a good amount of solid pitching performances this season, it was a key player that really showed up in 2015. Felix Jorge has been a notable Twins prospect for some time, and 2015 could be a nice launching point. A career best 2.79 ERA, low 2.0 BB/9, high 142.0 IP, and best of 114 strikeouts, Jorge finally started to look the part.

Still just 21 years old, Jorge will get playoff experience this season for the Kernels, and that should only help the maturity process going forward. He'll join the Miracle rotation in 2016, and has a chance to push towards Double-A Chattanooga if he can make it two strong years in a row. At this point, Jorge has to be back on the prospect radar.

Hitter: Nick Gordon

This might have been the easy, or unfair choice, but on a team struggling for offense his production can't be ignored. The former 1st round pick and potential shortstop of the future slashed just .277/.336/.360 on the season. From June 1 onwards though, Gordon slashed .304/.355/.406 with 18 doubles, five triples, a home run, and 35 runs batted in.

Gordon's glove has always been noted to be ahead of his bat, and that trend has continued. His bat has began to show though, and will be tested again next season at High-A Fort Myers. I would have been behind giving him a promotion the last month of the season, but 2016 he'll end up spending the majority of the year playing for the Miracle. Still just 19 (20 in October), he's a couple of years away, but nothing has deterred his top prospect status at this point.

Fort Myers Miracle (76-63)

Pitcher: Stephen Gonsalves

There are a handful of good options to choose here as the Miracle had one of the best rotations in the entire system. Gonsalves was just too good to overlook though. After owning a 1.15 ERA in nine starts for Cedar Rapids, the 20 year old compiled a 2.61 ERA across 15 starts for the Miracle. His strikeout rate dipped (6.2 K/9) but adjustments were expected. His 134.1 IP were double his 2014 output, and his 132 strikeouts were impressive.

Fort Myers will likely call Gonsalves their ace to start 2016, and that may be the case even if Kohl Stewart is asked to repeat the level from the get go. Gonsalves had a great 2015, and continued success could see him finishing the year making a start or two for Triple-A Rochester. He probably is two years away from helping the Twins, but a lefty with strikeout stuff is going to turn heads.

Hitter: Engelb Vielma

Of all the Twins farm teams, the Miracle are probably most void of that go to batter. For a prospect generating some buzz with his glove, it was his bat that started to show up this season. Putting up career offenses numbers nearly across the board, Vielma owned a .270/.321/.306 slash line with nine doubles and 29 runs batted in.

Not a power guy, or even much of a gap hitter, Vielma is going to need to continue to allow his offensive game to evolve. There's untapped potential there, and he'll get an opportunity to showcase it in 2016 at Double-A Chattanooga. Not the prospect that Jorge Polanco is, it could be Vielma who's called up in a pinch over the next season or two, with an outside shot at a utility spot in the not so distant future. His career could be spring-boarded by his 2015 performance, and Vielma is definitely a player to watch.

Chattanooga Lookouts (76-61)

Pitcher: J.T. Chargois

The Lookouts generated plenty of spring training buzz due to their flame-throwing relievers. While it was Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and Zack Jones generating most of the buzz, it has been Chargois pacing the pack. In 32 games (33.0 IP), he owned a 2.73 ERA along with a 9.3 K/9. Pitching in his first season since 2012, the 24-year-old looked dominant much more often than not.

Chargois probably should have been given stronger September call-up consideration this season than he likely was. Being a 40 man candidate next season, he should find a way to help the Twins out relatively early in the year. Chargois has good stuff, and getting time at Triple-A Rochester to settle in, should benefit him in the long run.

Hitter: Max Kepler

On a team that featured both Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, as well as a player in Adam Brett Walker that launched 31 home runs, it's Max Kepler that was no doubt the best hitter. The German stud cruised to a .322/.416/.531 slash line while tripling 13 times, doubling 32 times, and launching nine home runs. Kepler also stolen 18 bases, drove in 71 runs, and scores 76 times on his own. By all offensive standards, Kepler was a beast in 2015.

Had the Lookouts not been in the playoffs, Kepler (who's already on the 40 man roster) likely would be finishing his 2015 season with the Twins. He has the ability to play all three outfield spots, while also being capable at first base. It will be interesting to see how the Twins work him in, but you can bet he'll see time at Target Field in 2016. Whether he starts at Triple-A or not (he should), he's going to rocket up national prospect ratings.

Rochester Red Wings (77-67)

Pitcher: Jose Berrios

As much of a no-brainer as it get, Berrios was the organizations most impressive player at any level in 2015. He owned a minor league leading 175 strikeouts, compiled a 9.5 K/9 and walked just 2.1 batters per nine innings. He was 6-2 at Triple-A Rochester (14-5 overall), while owning a 2.87 ERA (2.62 at Triple-A). His 166.1 IP we the most of his career, and his offseason routine helped to make the output look easy.

Heading into 2016, Berrios should absolutely be in the Twins rotation from the get go. Whether he is or not remains to be seen. There are some hurdles for the Twins to sort through, but Berrios has major league ready stuff right now. Topping out on prospects lists at 32 (by MLB.com) he should be in the top 10 next season. As untouchable prospects go, Berrios has vaulted himself into that conversation with Buxton and Sano, cornerstones for the Twins turnaround in years to come.

Hitter: James Beresford

While it wasn't flashy by any means, Beresford had a "lunch-pail" type 2015. Coming to the field every day ready to work, all the Aussie did was hit. Despite being snubbed when it came to a September call up, the 26 year old slashed .307/.341/.359 on the season. With 21 doubles, and 58 runs scored, his bat was scrappy enough to matter.

Beresford probably tops out as a utility player in a best case scenario. He's not a 40 man guy, and he isn't going to force himself into the Twins long term plans. What he can do though is take over for an Eduardo Nunez type, and provide Minnesota some positional flexibility off the bench. No matter what the future looks like for Beresford, his 2015 at the dish was impressive.

The Twins had plenty of strong performers throughout the organization this season. While this is just a snapshot of a few, it's pretty easy to see that there is plenty of positive performers on the horizon.

The Season's Over, But Not For The Twins

It's September, the Twins are above .500, and more importantly, in the midst of a playoff race. Outside of the calendar inevitably turning to September, none of those facts seemed guaranteed at the beginning of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. Regardless, here we are, and not it's time for the Twins to address the latter two.

Minnesota has made their first wave of minor league call ups, looking to players like Kennys Vargas, A.J. Achter, Eric Fryer, and others. While many profile as little more than roster depth, there's some significant room for the Twins to bolster their playoff potential.

Speaking of the playoffs, Minnesota currently trails the Texas Rangers in the AL Wild Card (as of this writing, by 1.5 games). Failing to make up ground, winning and losing on the same days, the Twins have been treading water for much of the past couple of weeks. As things stand currently, Fangraphs slots the Twins chances of making the playoffs at 17.6%. That mark trails both the Rangers (24.6%) and the Angels (28.4%). For the Twins to catch Texas and stay ahead of Los Angeles, they could do themselves favors by looking at some roster options.

At this point, we are past the discussion as to whether or not Minnesota should be calling up Jose Berrios (to clear that up, they should have). What we do have in front of us though, is a 40 man roster that is not currently being utilized by Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan. With roster expansion taking place in September, the active roster grows from 25 to 40, a mark the Twins remain far off from. Still needing to have players on the 40 man roster in order to be added to the active roster in September, the Twins aren't in a position to go prospect crazy. What they can do however, is add two key cogs that could be the difference.

Right now, Minnesota has six players on the 40 man roster that are not yet in the big leagues. Those six players are Alex Meyer, Aaron Thompson, Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler. The last two players are the only currently slated for playoff baseball, thanks to Chattanooga's solid season at the Double-A level. That leaves Meyer, Thompson, Pinto, and Arcia as the odd ducks on the 40 man.

Thompson was up for the Twins earlier in the year. The former top draft pick worked out well, until he was over-used and exposed. His major league ability may have topped out, and the Twins shouldn't rely on him any time soon. Pinto is still looking to get back to his former self at the plate following a lost season due to concussions. He can't catch right now, and the Twins don't necessarily need another bench bat. Finally, Arcia finished horribly for Rochester, and despite the fact that he's out of options in 2016, he doesn't give the Twins much benefit at the current time.

Of the list, that leaves one. Alex Meyer.

Minnesota promoted Meyer in June and allowed him to make his MLB debut on the 26th against the Milwaukee Brewers. He allowed four earned runs in just 1.2 innings. After another earned run in one inning against the Reds, Meyer was sent back down to the farm. The former top prospect scuffled for the next month or so, but then something changed.

From August 9th, through the end of the season, Alex Meyer went on to pitch 19.2 innings. He gave up just 12 hits, and while he walked eight, he struck out 21. His 0.46 ERA sparkled, and his .174/.275/.188 slash line against was impressive. To say the Twins return for Denard Span ended 2015 at Triple-A on a good not may be an understatement.

Already of the 40 man, and the owner of a 9.8 K/9 in 2015, Meyer could provide a nice asset to a mediocre Twins pen in the final month. There's no doubt he's going to be given another shot to prove himself in 2016, and allowing that to happen in the midst of a playoff race would be great experience. Meyer doesn't deserve high leverage trust, but noting the Twins starting staff, he could prove plenty useful in the final few weeks.

Then there's the currently exclusion on the active roster of Meyer's teammate, and a guy not on the 40 man roster, Mark Hamburger. Brought in by the Twins and given a chance during spring training, he fared well, but it wasn't enough. Spending the season with Rochester, Hamburger has flown relatively under the radar. With guys like Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin getting the in-season callups, Hamburger continued to bide his time. After a tough start to the season (operating as a starter), and an ugly seven earned run blip during early June, he's been great out of the pen.

Since June 16, Hamburger owned a 0.79 ERA across 34.1 innings while allowing just 24 hits, three earned runs, and 28 strikeouts (walking just three). He was one of the most trusted Red Wings relievers in 2015, and opposing hitters slashed just .195/.213/.268 off of him. Having not been in the big leagues since 2011 with the Texas Rangers, it looks like his time may once again be here.

Having traveled a long road back to where he is now, Hamburger could take over a 40 man spot for Thompson. Knowing what the lefty (Thompson) can provide the Twins, Molitor and his staff may be best served to utilize Hamburger's abilities on the 40 man instead.

It's going to take an incredibly strong finish during the final month for the Twins to make the playoffs. With deadline acquired Kevin Jepsen already filling in for injured closer Glen Perkins, and a mediocre bullpen to start, it's there that the Twins need to focus. Hanging on to games late is a must for Molitor's club, and allowing another September 6 Houston Astros-like comeback can't happen again.

Minnesota should have both Alex Meyer and Mark Hamburger in their bullpen sooner rather than later.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Miguel Sano And His First Hardware

For years, since he was 16 in fact, Miguel Sano has been billed as the next great star for the Minnesota Twins. Having been signed for a then record amount out of the Dominican Republic, the mammoth human being was eventually going to lay waste to major league pitching. Fast forward to 2015 and that time has come. Whether he has played the field enough or not, Sano is ready for his first piece of hardware.

Sano debuted for the Twins on July 2nd. So far, he has played in 50 games, and compiled 176 at bats. Those at bats have resulted in 13 doubles, 14 home runs, 41 runs batted in, and a slash line of .295/.403/.608. For a guy who seems destined to hit somewhere around .270 for his career, he's off to a ridiculous start.

What makes Sano's production maybe even more impressive, is just how strong he looks doing it. Sano's average exit velocity on balls put in play stands at a blistering 94.25 mph (second only to Giancarlo Stanton). He hit a ball 113 miles per hour once this year, and his *double* off the catwalk at The Trop left the bat at a ridiculous 110 miles per hour.

Looking through Sano's peripherals, it is the strikeouts that jump off the board as a problem. With 76 whiffs in 176 at bats, Sano is striking out at a 43% clip. While not at all ideal, he continues to produce because of how hard the ball is it when put in play. Although a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) wasn't sustainable for Danny Santana a season ago, Sano's .432 mark should continue to remain high throughout his career.

On the season, Sano has batted as the designated hitter for 41 of his 50 games, playing the field just nine times. Logging 77 innings at third with five more coming at first, Sano's 82 innings have failed to establish him as an all around player in his first year. However, with the bat coming through, the Twins star has produced a 2.1 fWAR mark to this point.

So with such a strong season under his belt, Sano has to be the unquestioned AL Rookie of the Year right? Wrong (at least not in the minds of most). Carlos Correa, who has played SS in all 70 games since his call up this year, is seen as the more complete vote getter.

On offense, Correa owns a .279/.347/.518 slash line, with 17 doubles and 16 home runs. He has driven in 45 runs, and is a big part of the reason the Houston Astros find themselves atop of the AL West. As mentioned briefly however, it has taken Correa 20 more games than Sano to reach those marks. Quantified as a whole, Correa has compiled a 2.8 fWAR on the season.

With the main detractor for Sano being that he doesn't play the field, the defensive production of Correa should be examined. In just over 623 innings, Correa has been worth 0 DRS (defensive runs saved), while earning a -2.0 UZR (ultimate zone rating), and -5.5 UZR/150 (UZR per 150 defensive games). In other words, nothing that jumps off the page in the field.

Should you extrapolate Sano's production offensively to mirror the 70 games Correa has played, here is what you would come up with: 18 doubles, 19 home runs, 57 runs batted in, and 2.9 fWAR. Considering Sano has continued to push the envelope in terms of projections, those numbers may actually be share of what real performance would look like.

With 31 games left to go for the Twins, Sano still has plenty of time to make his final statement. The fact that his biggest competition plays the field though, should not be the detractor when it comes to deciding a winner. Despite significantly less opportunity at his disposal, Sano has caught up to Correa, and has him within striking distance.

At the end of the day, it's a fair argument that Miguel Sano deserves his first hardware in the form of the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year. What may be more important though is that the production continues to pave the way for Sano to be at the forefront of helping Minnesota to bring their own hardware to Twins Territory in the years to come.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Burdi, Reed, Pave The Path Less Traveled

The 2015 Major League Baseball season wasn't supposed to go the way it has for the Minnesota Twins for many different reasons. Most notable, is the fact that Paul Molitor's club is in playoff position a year before they were expected to be. Surprisingly, there are a few expected contributors that are missing from the fold however. Maybe most glaringly of the bunch are two relievers, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed.

Minnesota selected both Burdi and Reed with 2014 draft picks. Burdi was taken in the 2nd round out of the University of Louisville, while Reed went to the Twins in the 5th out of Oregon. Both players put together solid debut seasons, and Reed then went on to impress during the Arizona Fall League. With a good amount of momentum rolling behind them, both players looked like a 2015 MLB splash could be in the cards.

Until it wasn't.

Burdi's first outing of the season for Double-A Chattanooga was of the four run blowup variety, grabbing just two outs. By June 25, he owned a 5.93 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters a .775 OPS off of him. For Reed, things weren't much prettier. Three outings in, he allowed his first run. It snowballed to a 5.56 ERA and a .281/.366/.388 slash line by Aug 6th. Both players were then met with even more adversity.

The Lookouts ultimately gave Burdi the hook first, with him being demoted at the end of June. Reed would stay with the Double-A club until early August, before assuming the same fate. Now being sent down to High-A Fort Myers, a level both seemed above, confidence needed to be regained.

Pitching in his first game of 2015 for Fort Myers on July 2nd, Burdi registered four strikeouts in two innings pitched. After 13 games a level below, he had compiled a 2.25 ERA, a 13.05 K/9, and baffled opposing hitters to the tune of a .179/.208/.239 ERA. Since, he has been promoted back to Double-A Chattanooga, and owns a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings.

Still down at Fort Myers, Reed has found himself as well. Having skipped over the level a season ago, Reed was getting his first taste of the Florida State League. Now with 11.1 innings under his belt, the former Duck looks every bit as dominating as he was once billed. A 0.00 ERA with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, Reed is overpowering hitters allowing just a .211/.225/.211 slash line.

Now with the season set to wrap up, the next hurdle has appeared for the two flamethrowers. Both have been assigned to take part in the Arizona Fall League as representatives for the Twins. Playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions, Reed will be repeating the league after an impressive 2014 showing (0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP). Burdi will be making his first appearance.

As Reed did last year, both pitchers can use the next challenge as a new opportunity. Despite being something they both likely believed they were past, a strong Fall League showing, could have heightened 2016 implications. With a Twins bullpen that will no doubt undergo a significant amount of turnover, candidates will need to emerge.

Both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi continue to profile as key cogs in the Twins bullpen for years to come. Possessing high velocity arms, and strikeout stuff that has not been synonymous with the Twins for quite some time (or ever), the excitement level is there. Although 2015 didn't turn out to be what was once expected, a refresh button has appeared.

Having had the opportunity to interview both Reed and Burdi in the past, betting against them a second time around doesn't seem like a good practice. These are two names you may want to get familiar with. With the Arizona Fall League as their proving ground, the next step could be within reach.

The Middle And Its Dangers

It's 2015 and the Minnesota Twins are playing baseball in September. While that happens every season, what doesn't happen often (or at least for the past four seasons), is meaningful September baseball. Paul Molitor's club finds themselves in the thick of a heated Wild Card race with just over a month to play. The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to toe the middle this season, and it could prove costly.

For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game Wild Card playoff.

In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having went through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish.

Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition, that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense.

That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters.

During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously.

Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current Wild Card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future.

Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back.

With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug, Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug), and injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Not needing to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future deterring move, Minnesota stood pat.

Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324 against him. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect.

In holding him back, the club doesn't need to answer to service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more.

Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could end up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control.

By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them to September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt benefit the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring.

Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. In promoting during September 2015, and then May 2016, Berrios's service time implications would be as if he was not promoted this season at all.

Because of handling things how they did, the Twins find themselves right in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being perceived. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?"

The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top.

For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait.

Twins Reinforcement Absent In September

With August officially coming to a close, and the Twins just a game back in the Wild Card standings, Paul Molitor's club is in uncharted territory. For the past four seasons, losing has been all the Twins have known. Now with a chance to play meaningful September baseball, promotions take on a whole different meaning.

As the Rochester Red Wings finished off a 4-2 win to end the month of August, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan watched the action unfold as he decided who he would bring back north with him. Upon exiting the Triple-A clubhouse for what can be assumed the last time in 2015, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, A.J. Achter, Eric Fryer, and Michael Tonkin were headed back to the big leagues.

Vargas had been all over the system in 2015 having played with the Twins, and as low as Double-A. Santana was being forced to prove that 2014 was more than a flash in the pan. Tonkin had been up and down more times than he'd like to admit, Fryer gives Molitor options, and Achter was still looking for his time to be long enough to make an impression. They now would all get to write the next chapter of their story.

The biggest news out of Rochester though, was who wasn't called up.

Having been informed that the Twins decision maker, Ryan, was there to watch him. Being told that a few solid performances could be the final push to get to the big leagues. With the knowledge in the back of his mind, Jose Berrios pitched.

His 3.08 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga didn't matter now, and nor did his 9.1 K/9 a step down. Not even his already impressive track record at Triple-A Rochester. What mattered were the few starts being watched by the man who held his fate in his hands. With Ryan on hand, Berrios pitched to the tune of 13 one run innings. He gave up just seven hits and struck out 17 while walking just one batter. His 0.69 ERA was near flawless, and opposing hitters mustered just a .146/.163/.229 line against him. At the end of it all though, it was deemed not enough.

Despite Kyle Gibson owning an ERA of 6.00 in August, forgetting that Tommy Milone had been hit around to a 5.40 mark over his last three starts, and negating the fact that one brilliant outing overshadowed a 9.12 ERA for Ervin Santana in the past month, Ryan decided there was no room for Berrios. With nearly 160 innings pitched under his belt, this was Berrios opportunity to make a contribution at the next level.

There's two trains of thought that could provide answers for the most obvious reasons to overlook such a needed commodity in Minnesota. The first, is Berrios' workload itself. Having pitched a career high 139.2 innings a season ago, a 20% increase was fast approaching. Whether of the belief that should be a hard stop to avoid arm damage for a young player or not, the Twins would no doubt want to exercise caution with the 21 year old.

Despite Berrios being in the best shape of his life (as quickly noticed by his offseason program), the long term health should continue to remain at the forefront. His big league contribution (from a health standpoint) would have made a lot of sense sometime in August, and no doubt would have afforded the Twins more work earlier on in the shutdown process.

On the flip side, there is baseball as a business. A team like the Twins generally is going to do what they can to keep control over young assets. Without the lucrative TV deal allowing spending to be amongst the league's best, smart contracts loom large. Berrios has a service clock that has yet to start, and a September call up would reverse that fact.

The problem with both of the reasons not to bring up what no doubt could be a key cog for the stretch run, is that both issues are somewhat simply addressed. On the health side of things, Terry Ryan was in person to watch Berrios is his most recent outings. Showing no signs of slowing down, the sentiment that Ryan suggested in regards to his limit being based on feel, seems little more than lip service. A 20% increase in innings is far from a gold standard, and once again, Berrios has done nothing but show he wants more.

In regards to service time, contracts, and controllability, the Twins decide to gamble on the future. While Berrios' service time would start with a September call up, a year of arbitration is not immediately lost. Had the Twins called him up now, and then held him at Triple-A until May 2016 (rather than starting with the Twins out of Spring Training), they would have saved the same year of service time. No doubt the practice would frustrate an agent, but the same can be said about the current handling.

At the end of the day, the Twins are in a position that no one expected them to be. Above .500 and competing for a playoff spot in the season's final month, an opportunity presented itself. Rather than capitalize on where they are currently, Terry Ryan decided to gamble and hope that in 2022 (when Berrios' final year of team control comes into play), matters just as much.

Minnesota could have positioned themselves for a playoff run now, in 2016, and going forward. Instead, they chose to play the "we're just happy to be here" card, and act as though 2015 is nothing more than a participation trophy.

Monday, August 31, 2015

The Twins Perfect Storm

Just a few weeks ago, the Twins 2015 postseason hopes looked all but lost. In a season in which expectations had already been so vastly exceeded, it appeared that once again, September would be nothing more than a proving ground for 2016. Now on the back of another nice run, Paul Molitor's squad enters September with something to play for. With a perfect storm approaching, Minnesota has the chance to sink or swim.

Heading into the final full month of the season, Minnesota finds themselves looking up at only the Texas Rangers. With both the Yankees and Blue Jays holding down either the AL East or top Wild Card spot, it will be Texas that Minnesota will chase. Separated a few games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota can worry about themselves.

Looking at the final month of the season, the Twins play plenty of familiar foes. Following the first weekend in September, the Twins will play only AL Central teams the rest of the way (outside of a four game homestand against the Angels). In those 22 games, only six of them come against the division leading Kansas City Royals. For further context, that means the Twins will play 16 games against sub .500 teams the rest of the way.

Minnesota has played the AL East the toughest this season (going 19-14), while nearly splitting with divisional foes (26-25). Despite holding down the second spot in the division, the Twins will face plenty of tough pitching matchups the rest of the way. Kluber, Sale, and what might be an improved Verlander looming, earning a playoff berth will be a must.

However, the Twins also have a few trump cards at their disposal this September. Instead of looking to give playing time to those who have paid their due, Molitor and Terry Ryan stand to benefit their big league club by calling up true talent. It's safe to say players such as Kennys Vargas, Jose Berrios, and even Max Kepler have earned their way onto the big league roster. Knowing that each of them could equate to key wins helps that fact to carry even more weight.

Despite being a year ahead of schedule, the Twins have parlayed getting hot again at the right time, with the ability to bolster their roster for the home stretch. Knowing what teams lie ahead, and their level of talent, Minnesota has tipped the scales in their favor. Whether or not they make it to the playoffs remains unseen, but Paul Molitor has everything point the right direction at the most opportune time.