At this point of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, we’re dealing with an astronomical amount of assumptions and hypotheticals. Given the league year has yet to flip over to 2021, we have no idea what will actually happen. The general consensus is one of teams taking a step back, and well, for Minnesota that’s the wrong move.
In 2020 the Minnesota Twins owned the 18th highest payroll
in Major League Baseball. The prorated portion of their commitment was just
north of $55 million. They jumped the overall commitment north by taking on
established veteran Kenta Maeda, and signing Josh Donaldson to a four-year,
$100 million contract. Coming off a record setting 2019, it was clear that this
team was in the midst of a competitive window.
Fast forward to where we are today. Minnesota won the AL
Central Division for a second straight season (even if it was in a shortened
schedule) and played to the pace of a 97-win baseball club. For all intents and
purposes, they were again among the best teams in the sport. Naturally, that
would lead us to an offseason in which they are looking to…take a step
backwards?
If you haven’t yet taken a look at TwinsPayroll.com, head
over there right now. What you’ll quickly see is that the tool put together by
Twins Daily highlights the constraints facing an expected tightening of the
payroll for 2021. You want Nelson Cruz back? Good luck winding up with any
pitching. How about signing Trevor Bauer? The bullpen will be filled with guys
making the league minimum. Almost any way you cut it, there’s no avenue to
bring back the majority of what was a very good 2020 club.
Entering the pre-pandemic 2020 season with a payroll around
$140 million, we’re suggesting even a small step backwards resulting in a
payroll around $125 million. Despite entering the height of their most recent
competitive window, Minnesota would be tasked with shedding talent in order to
help out the bottom line.
On one hand this is understandable. Major League Baseball
organizations played out the string this year with no fans in attendance. No
concessions were bought, and ticket sales very clearly didn’t happen. On the
other hand, ownership groups signed off on a new Postseason deal valued at
nearly $4 billion. Those same owners have been making money hand over fist for
years, and while MLB claims financial hardship, the more likely reality is that
the bottom line isn’t quite as green. Of course, we’ll never know for sure with
all of their books being top secret.
Should taking a step backwards from an overall payroll
perspective make sense, it would seem that buck would be passed onto players.
The arbitration process isn’t likely to change prior to the CBA being
renegotiated following the 2021 season, but free agency could become somewhat
of a market inefficiency. Ownership groups may decide to tell players simply
take what’s out there or wait and see what happens a year from now. Maybe the
contracts agreed to are a fraction of what would’ve been guaranteed in a
traditional cycle. Short of that, it’s really hard to predict what’s going to
happen.
This can’t
happen for the Twins, not now, and it would be damaging if it does. Minnesota
has dealt with years of poor play to build up to this point. Derek Falvey and
Thad Levine have constructed a consistent winner. The farm system is in a good,
not great, place ready to bear fruit. The Major League roster is among the best
in the sport and just had a mega-star added to it. Taking their foot off the
gas now and trying to piece it together with lesser parts would be counterproductive
to everything necessary up until this point.
I can understand the fiscal desire to recoup funds following a year of certainty. If you’re goal is to maximize return on investment through the course of winning though, the time to take a step backwards is not now. That’s a tough pill to swallow in times of economic strife, but it’s why billionaires’ own franchises instead of those simply making ends meet.
