Twins Spending Can Take Another Step Forward

 

Today Maury Brown put an article out at Forbes that illustrated some of the economic impact across baseball in relation to a pandemic shortened 2020 season. While the league as a whole spent roughly $2.5B less on salaries, the per game adjustments note a step forward. The Twins can and need to afford a similar path in the year ahead.

 

In 2019 $2,472,194,292 more dollars were spent on payrolls across baseball. Obviously, there were also 102 more games played that season. Adjusting the calendar to be in line with what we experienced during 2020 however, a 12% increase in player salaries would’ve been realized.

 

On the Twins front, Minnesota paid out $52,627,942 in salaries during the 2020 season. That was good enough for 19^th in baseball. They paid a total of $125,205,980 in 2019, and that comes out to an adjusted amount of $46,372,585. It makes sense that the Pohlad family would push more finances into roster construction during an open window and following a length period of cost savings, but it’s glad to see that come to fruition.

 

After going big on Josh Donaldson to the tune of a four-year deal worth at least $100 million, Minnesota again finds themselves in a position to spend. Although payroll positioning isn’t indicative of talent of future finish (just ask the Tampa Bay Rays), stockpiling more assets is hardly a bad practice. Coming off a second straight AL Central division title and looking to supplement an already strong core around a star like Donaldson, another step up makes plenty of sense.

 

Despite the down revenues for the league as a whole in 2020, the reality is that Scott Boras’ assessment is likely factual. Teams didn’t actually lose money as much as they simply didn’t take in typical profits. Coming off years of record growth financially however, that should hardly be the sole motivator, and especially not for organizations in the midst of prime competitive windows.

 

Minnesota has a respectable farm system and one that has both established depth while harboring some very high projected prospects at the top. Even Royce Lewis though shouldn’t be considered a cornerstone on a Major League team for the next one or two seasons. That’s a point in which most of the Twins core is looking into their 30’s while the big contract for Donaldson is a year from lapsing. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can’t throw caution to the wind, but they’ve built a sustained winner, and now is time to continue adding pieces.

 

There have been rumblings about what the Twins plan to do at the shortstop position, and there’s no doubt they have holes in the starting rotation as it would currently be constructed. Minnesota is never going to be able to compete with big market clubs purely from an enticement factor but saving dollars doesn’t make much sense given the state of the competitive opportunity and the challenge Chicago will certainly present.

 

It’s good to see that even in a year with decreased revenues and unprecedented hurdles the Twins stepped up on the bottom line. Now they need to continue to weather the storm and do it again for 2021.

The Twins Can’t Afford to Decrease Payroll in 2021

At this point of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, we’re dealing with an astronomical amount of assumptions and hypotheticals. Given the league year has yet to flip over to 2021, we have no idea what will actually happen. The general consensus is one of teams taking a step back, and well, for Minnesota that’s the wrong move.

 

In 2020 the Minnesota Twins owned the 18th highest payroll in Major League Baseball. The prorated portion of their commitment was just north of $55 million. They jumped the overall commitment north by taking on established veteran Kenta Maeda, and signing Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $100 million contract. Coming off a record setting 2019, it was clear that this team was in the midst of a competitive window.

 

Fast forward to where we are today. Minnesota won the AL Central Division for a second straight season (even if it was in a shortened schedule) and played to the pace of a 97-win baseball club. For all intents and purposes, they were again among the best teams in the sport. Naturally, that would lead us to an offseason in which they are looking to…take a step backwards?

 

If you haven’t yet taken a look at TwinsPayroll.com, head over there right now. What you’ll quickly see is that the tool put together by Twins Daily highlights the constraints facing an expected tightening of the payroll for 2021. You want Nelson Cruz back? Good luck winding up with any pitching. How about signing Trevor Bauer? The bullpen will be filled with guys making the league minimum. Almost any way you cut it, there’s no avenue to bring back the majority of what was a very good 2020 club.

 

Entering the pre-pandemic 2020 season with a payroll around $140 million, we’re suggesting even a small step backwards resulting in a payroll around $125 million. Despite entering the height of their most recent competitive window, Minnesota would be tasked with shedding talent in order to help out the bottom line.

 

On one hand this is understandable. Major League Baseball organizations played out the string this year with no fans in attendance. No concessions were bought, and ticket sales very clearly didn’t happen. On the other hand, ownership groups signed off on a new Postseason deal valued at nearly $4 billion. Those same owners have been making money hand over fist for years, and while MLB claims financial hardship, the more likely reality is that the bottom line isn’t quite as green. Of course, we’ll never know for sure with all of their books being top secret.

 

Should taking a step backwards from an overall payroll perspective make sense, it would seem that buck would be passed onto players. The arbitration process isn’t likely to change prior to the CBA being renegotiated following the 2021 season, but free agency could become somewhat of a market inefficiency. Ownership groups may decide to tell players simply take what’s out there or wait and see what happens a year from now. Maybe the contracts agreed to are a fraction of what would’ve been guaranteed in a traditional cycle. Short of that, it’s really hard to predict what’s going to happen.

 

This can’t happen for the Twins, not now, and it would be damaging if it does. Minnesota has dealt with years of poor play to build up to this point. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have constructed a consistent winner. The farm system is in a good, not great, place ready to bear fruit. The Major League roster is among the best in the sport and just had a mega-star added to it. Taking their foot off the gas now and trying to piece it together with lesser parts would be counterproductive to everything necessary up until this point.

 

I can understand the fiscal desire to recoup funds following a year of certainty. If you’re goal is to maximize return on investment through the course of winning though, the time to take a step backwards is not now. That’s a tough pill to swallow in times of economic strife, but it’s why billionaires’ own franchises instead of those simply making ends meet.

Bottom Line Brings Twins Changes

Update: With the Twins now done with their home schedule, the attendance for 2016 came in at 1,963,912. That number is the worst mark since 2004, but better than the pace Minnesota was on just over a week ago. While announced attendances over the past few games were significantly more than the amount of people in the stadium, season ticket sales saved the Twins. You can bet that 2017 will see another dip in season ticket sales, and that Minnesota will be asked to prove it.

The Minnesota Twins have just over a week's worth of baseball games left in 2016. As the season draws to a close, Paul Molitor's troops are certain to lose 100 games, and they may end up posting the worst record in team history. Although we've seen Jim Pohlad move on from long time General Manager Terry Ryan this season, the reality is that it's the bank account that reigns supreme.

Here's what we know right now. In the middle of the summer, the Twins gave Terry Ryan his walking papers. They were long overdue, and they should be considered performance related first and foremost. For far too long, his approach had become outdated and the results hadn't been fruitful. After firing his head man, Pohlad quickly went on record to suggest that Manager Paul Molitor would remain in 2017 regardless.

At that point, we were quickly reminded that Pohlad's expertise is solely rooted in dollars and cents. He's not a baseball man, Molitor isn't worthy of a vote of confidence, and the chips falling where they may still means that Pohlad's scope ends with the fans walking through the gates.

With six home games left, the Twins have a recorded attendance number of 1,831,020 fans. That boils down to roughly 24,400 fans per game. At capacity, Target Field tops out at 39,504 fans per game. That's a figure that the Twins haven't seen often at all this season. In reality, the stretch run has consisted of roughly 14,000 season tickets being accounted for every night, while the in game crowd likely falls somewhere below 10,000 people.

You can probably look at the numbers above and make the educated conclusion that the Twins aren't proud of those results. Target Field is a gorgeous venue, and baseball during a Minnesota summer and fall are some of the best ways to spend your time. What those numbers don't show on their own however, is a reality that has the current Twins club being less supported than any team in recent memory.

Since Target Field opened in 2010, the Twins have never had less than 2.2 million fans over the course of a season. That number came last year, when the Twins narrowly missed the playoffs after four straight 90 loss seasons. The first two years at their new digs saw the Twins draw over 3 million fans per year, and the third year brought in over 2.75 million. Minnesota's number for 2016 though, won't compare to anything Target Field has seen before.

When the dust settles on the year, the Twins will likely be right around 1.9 million for a final attendance figure. You'd have to go back to 2001 at the H.H.H. Metrodome to find a Twins team that drew that few fans over the course of an 81 game home slate. The 2001 Twins were coming off of four straight 90 loss seasons, but boosted their attendance to 1.7 million (after not topping 1.43 million since 1993) while winning 85 games and finishing second in the AL Central that year.

To Pohlad, and Team President Dave St. Peter, the fact that this collection of Minnesota Twins will draw the smallest crowd since 2001 is a problem. It's a problem because it doesn't even sniff previous Target Field attendance numbers, and it gets beat by the last eight seasons at the Metrodome (which was an absolute dump). The honeymoon phase with Target Field appears to be over, and expecting to draw simply because of the atmosphere is no longer a realistic proposition.

Over the winter, Pohlad and his business partners can roll out as many new food options, patios, and perks as they so choose, but without a commitment to a competitive product with a purpose on the field, the fans dollar will continue to speak. It's a great thing that the organization has decided to go in a different direction than the one Ryan was treading water in, but nothing forced them to make that decision more than the financial implications that this season presented. While wins and losses highly dictate the turnout, it's ultimately the turnout that continues to control operations.

As you make your last trips to Target Field in 2016, be glad that it's the paltry crowds that have forced change, and hope that change brings the people back. A new Baseball Operations President and General Manager will be tasked with righting the ship, and if they succeed, the Minnesota Twins will once again run like a well oiled machine.

It's Time Twins Stop Passing The Buck

There's a saying that goes something like, "No one knows you're clueless until you open your mouth and remove all doubt." On July 18, 2016 the Minnesota Twins fired long time General Manager Terry Ryan. It was a much needed move, and one that could have been made a long time ago. But then Jim Pohlad spoke, and so did Dave St. Peter.

Pohlad is the owner of the Minnesota Twins. He's one of the most disconnected, at least based on appearances, in the world of sports. On May 6, 2016. he was featured in the Star Tribune by columnist Chip Scoggins for calling the entirety of the organization a "Total System Failure." The problem is, he wasn't wrong, but he still appears to not have much of an idea what that actually means.

That whole opening your mouth and removing doubt bit, it couldn't have been more on display than when Pohlad explained his baseball understanding of other front offices around the big leagues. When asked if he had studied or looked at what other teams are doing in setting up their organization structures and the success of them, he muttered, "Yes I have. I’ve gone through all the media guides and looked at titles and structures and the emerging trends of president of baseball operations or whatever. Yes, I’ve studied that.” Sorry Jim, but you'll probably want to do a bit better than perusing some media guides to have any clue about the effectiveness of organization you currently oversee.

In his press conference following the firing of Terry Ryan, Pohlad didn't offer just one head scratching comment though. He talked of his desire to promote from within, how that's something he and the Twins have always felt good about doing. It's a direct contradiction to the "Total System Failure" comments, and it's tone deaf to the reality that Rob Antony, St. Peter, and even Pohlad himself are all part of the problem that has the Twins where they are.

At this point, the Twins have taken a massive baby step. While that's seemingly an oxymoron, it adequately describes what's currently going on. Firing a GM that has long underperformed is indicative of Minnesota coming to grips with a change that was long overdue. Ryan wasn't allowed to simply bow out (even though he was given a month to craft his exit), but instead was fired. A message was sent that the Twins do have a slight shred of accountability left within the organization. 

That's where the other part of the narrative comes into play however, the change can't end there. Simply hiring from within, rather than using the opportunity to make sweeping changes, would be a catastrophic missuse of the massive part of this equation. If making the initial move was the baby step, it is in the follow up that the future direction and turnaround of the Twins lies.

Following the push forward, the Twins may have already slipped up once, and they simply can't afford to do it again.

With both Pohlad and St. Peter handcuffing their future GM to current manager Paul Molitor, the Twins have failed to get out of their own way from the start. It may not hamper the quality of the final candidate, but it sure stacks the deck against them from the onset. Molitor doesn't have the equity in the managerial game to be given the safety net that he has now, and his 2016 season has all but wiped away any semblance of in game acumen that was displayed a year ago.

Right now, the organizational structure for the Twins is headlined by an out-of-touch owner and a haughty President. Both Pohlad and St. Peter are more a part of the problem than they will ever signify the solution. As they work to right the ship, owning that, and ceasing a trickle down effect is going to need to be part of the process.

For the first time since the early 90's, Minnesota has a chance to make an organizational shift that leverages a strong system begging to win. A missed opportunity could be catastrophic, and as we've seen before, there's no telling how long the organization may need to wait to get it right.

Twins Have Seemingly Learned Little

May 6, 2016 the Minnesota Twins graced headlines as owner Jim Pohlad called the season a "Total System Failure." The club had started 0-9 and now owned a 6-20 record on the year. By all defining terms, "Total System Failure" seemed accurate. The problem is that it doesn't seem to have resonated all that much.

Fast forward to June 6, and the Twins find themselves in similar territory. They own a 16-40 record, meaning they responded to Pohlad's comments by replicating the ugly 8-20 output. What's worse than the record itself however, is how it's been achieved.

In their latest loss, the Twins went down 7-5 to end a four game series at Target Field with the Tampa Bay Rays. Forget the fact that Minnesota pitching gave up 11 home runs (5 to Evan Longoria alone) in those contests, and dwell on the idea that the rolled over. In the 6th inning of a tie game, leading hitter (.331 average), Eduardo Nunez dropped down a sacrifice bunt. He had decided that the club needed to play for one run, with Byron Buxton on first, and gave himself up.

Following the game, manager Paul Molitor noted that Nunez acted on his own accord with his sacrifice. What Molitor didn't do was show any sort of anger or discipline for the decision. Nunez made a poor baseball decision, and the Twins went on to leave the 6th without a run. Compounding problems, a similar position presented itself in the very next inning. Still tied, Robbie Grossman walked, and Molitor called upon Eduardo Escobar to drop down a sacrifice bunt. Again the Twins didn't score, and their decision to agree that they weren't capable of generating a base hit came back to haunt them.

In a vacuum, there's been plenty of these situations over the course of the season. Despite being an elite baseball mind, Paul Molitor has looked like the stage is above him quite often. The Hall of Famer seems confused to best practices during in game scenarios, and there's been far too many head scratching opportunities.

That brings us somewhat full circle on Pohlad's comments. Despite being an indictment of what had taken place, the response from the Twins has been to stay status quo. They record is an exact replica on both sides of the quote, and the execution has been similar as well. Molitor has been poor in his own right, and Terry Ryan has followed suit.

If it isn't happening on the bench, then it's been in Ryan's hands. His star slugger hit the disabled list due to a pulled hamstring, and currently has an outfield spot to return back to. Former top pitching prospect Alex Meyer was made to wait 28 days prior to an exploratory MRI, only to be placed on the DL some 30 days after he last pitched. For all Ryan has done well in roster manipulation over his tenure, I don't remember a time with more negatives packed into a brief period of time than now.

What it all comes down to isn't a quote, but rather a direction. No negative public comments from an out-of-touch owner are going to turn this dumpster fire around. The Twins need to commit to some changes, and they have to be made sooner rather than later.

Sure, I believe both Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan need to go. It appears neither are capable of doing their jobs to a satisfactory level. Even before that though, Minnesota needs an identity. With underperforming veterans littered across the roster, a purge or shift should take place soon. It's time to move on from what you can, and allow the Buxton's, Sano's, Kepler's, and Polanco's to make this team theirs. Bring them up, let them invest in the process, and do what they can to put their stamp on 2016. The results aren't likely going to turn much for the better, but it would suggest a shift in process that should prove beneficial in the long run.

For this club, things have gone far from as expected or desired. While that's unfortunate in and of itself, Pohlad, Ryan, Molitor, and the rest of the organization have done nothing to turn the tide either. At some point, it can't be about the newspaper fodder; there has to actually be actionable change.