Twins Opening Day Roster Projection 2.0

It’s nearly the middle of March, and the Minnesota Twins are just 17 days away from their 2019 Opening Day game against the Cleveland Indians. Roughly one month ago I made my first roster projection for the season, and a handful of things have transpired since then. Heading down to Fort Myers to see the club in action this week, I figured now was a good time to come out with a revised edition.

Most notably, the club signed Marwin Gonzalez and Miguel Sano is destined to begin the season on the Injured List. That shuffles a few things for position players, but there’s a relative level of clarity there. It’s on the pitching side that things remain up in the air, and that will be worth monitoring down the stretch.

Here’s how I see things looking on March 28 given the information we have today.

Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez

Changes: None

The rotation has all been locked in since the beginning of Spring Training. Martin Perez was inked as the 5^th starter, and while the move has drawn plenty of ire (myself included), it appears the Twins are right thus far. Wes Johnson has the former Rangers prospect shoving near 97 mph, and he’s working with a different pitch mix that could unlock a new level of effectiveness. Minnesota targeted Anibal Sanchez as an outlier last year and witnessed him succeed in the Braves organization. Perez looks to be that guy in 2019, and everyone wants to see it come together here.

Bullpen (7): Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero, Matt Magill

Changes: Addison Reed to IL

Addison Reed was signed to a two-year contract last winter, and he was coming off a 2.84 ERA. He’s been very good out of the pen for most of his career, and he’d pitched in high-leverage situations tallying 125 saves to his credit. Unfortunately, with Minnesota, he turned in a 4.50 ERA, 5.11 FIP, and the strikeout numbers sagged dramatically. He also lost another mph of velocity for the third year in a row, and the swinging strikes fell off a cliff. Despite the small sample, spring training hasn’t been kind to him either. I’m not sure if he’s still hurt from 2018, but the club could make a case to stash him and let him find a bit more success on a rehab stint.

Should the Twins decide that Reed is right, and he needs to come north, the decision then comes down to the trio of Matt Magill, Trevor Hildenberger, and Fernando Romero. Magill looks like he has plenty of supporters in the clubhouse and will make the roster. Hildenberger has options, but despite late season struggles, has been plenty reliable in the past. No matter how much talk there’s been about Romero, letting him have a couple weeks of working as a reliever in real game action at Triple-A could be good. If Minnesota needs to make a tough decision, I’d bet on it being a short trip to Rochester for Fernando.

Catchers (3): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

Changes: Add Willians Astudillo

There’s somewhat of a domino effect caused by Miguel Sano needing to start the year on the IL. Marwin Gonzalez goes from super utility to primary third basemen, and that opens a bench spot. Astudillo isn’t the most ideal catcher, but he provides defensive flexibility with the ability to play all over the diamond. La Tortuga probably isn’t going to live up to his September hype, but he’ll be given the opportunity early.

Castro returns with a clean bill of health, and although he’ll be the presumed starter, a defensively revitalized Mitch Garver could challenge sooner rather than later. Castro is in the final year of his deal, and Garver assuming a more serious hold on the full-time role would be a great development for the Twins.

Infielders (5): C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Ehire Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez

Changes: Miguel Sano to IL, Lucas Duda released

Miguel Sano had as impressive of a winter as the Twins could’ve hoped, but it ended on an unlucky note with a gash to the back of his heel halting the start of his 2019 season. He’ll be ready in May, but we could end up waiting to see him until June. That development makes the addition of Marwin Gonzalez even more imperative.

The Astros used Marwin all over the place last year, and Minnesota will likely do the same as soon as they are able. Ehire Adrianza will be able to spell most of the infield positions, and Marwin will need to slot in primarily at third from the get-go. A platoon at first base doesn’t appear likely, meaning Tyler Austin needs to be dealt or passed through waivers (unlikely) before hitting Triple-A. Duda was a nice get for camp, but not making the team, he’ll look to latch on elsewhere.

Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jake Cave

Changes: None

No changes to the outfield, and that’s a serious positive for this group. Byron Buxton has been en fuego this spring, while the starting trio has remained healthy. Jake Cave is due for some regression from his impressive rookie season, but he’s more than a serviceable fourth regardless.

It took a while for Nelson Cruz to appear in game action this spring, but being the veteran he is, that was never cause for concern. He won’t play outfield aside from the remote possibility of appearing in interleague action. That said, the 38-year-old year old should launch plenty of longballs from the heart of Minnesota’s lineup this year.

If there is something to monitor here, it’s Michael Reed. Like Jake Cave before him, the front office tabbed Reed as a player with a potential for more. He was hurt to start the spring and has just begun getting into game action. Zack Granite was jettisoned off the 40 man before him, and the hope would be that he could be shipped to Triple-A. Without options though, Reed will need to clear waivers before being able to be removed off the 40 man.

Twins Opening Day Roster Projection 1.0

Down in sunny Fort Myers, Florida the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers have officially reported, and practice is underway. With many position players either already in camp, or soon to join them, real game action is not far off. Attempting to decipher how Rocco Baldelli will shape his first major league roster should be a fun exercise and doing a first projection before we see anything take shape is plenty exciting.

In past seasons there was some level of continuity with how Paul Molitor wanted his roster to look. The front office had influence, but it was the skipper that ultimately was responsible for the 25 men that headed north. Now having to get used to a new process, we’ll have to figure out how the former Rays star feels about organizing the ends of his roster.

For your first Opening Day roster projection of 2019, here’s how I see the Twins embarking upon Target Field:

Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez

Barring another signing, this group looks to be inked in pen. The Perez signing is a head scratcher, and he was better in relief for the Rangers in 2018. That said, the front office has been bullish about him being their 5^th guy, and none of the depth behind him makes that a ridiculous proposition. Minnesota could still go out and acquire another arm, with the bar being relatively low, but today this is where we’re at.

Bullpen (7): Trevor May, Addison Reed, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero

The Twins bullpen was an area capable of improving the most going into 2019, and while it’s ok, there’s still plenty of uncertainty. Rogers looks like a very reliable, and high-quality arm, while May projects as one of the better relievers in the division. Reed is a prime candidate for a bounce back year and Hildenberger has flashed plenty of potential in his previous exploits. Mejia is out of options, and I’d imagine the Twins won’t move on without reason. Really the only question here is what happens with Romero. Ideally, he still gets developed as a starter, but he could very well be an elite level reliever right now.

Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

Going into the year Castro will get the lion’s share of the reps but seeing that swing as the season goes on would not be a surprise. Garver needs to take steps forward defensively, but the bat is impressive and needs to be in the lineup often. He was under-utilized at times by Molitor, and that’s hopefully not a path Baldelli goes down. There’s no Willians Astudillo here which will disappoint some, but his days as a catcher could also be limited.

Infielders (6): C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, Lucas Duda

There’s not much question regarding the starters around the diamond. I could listen to an argument that Duda and Tyler Austin make up a platoon that pushes out Cron, but I don’t think there’s much steam to that. The front office made upgrades at both first and second base this winter, and the returning tandem of Sano and Polanco looks enticing on paper. Adrianza will once again play the utility role, and Duda as a platoon partner and bench bat makes a good deal of sense.

Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jake Cave

Like the infield, Minnesota’s outfield is all but set in stone. The corners are well established, and Buxton will return to start in center. This needs to be the campaign in which he puts it all together, and that taking shape could lead to his first All Star appearance. Nelson Cruz is going to be a full-time DH but could see time in the field during interleague play, although everyone would probably prefer that doesn’t happen. There should be worry about regression from Cave this year, and that could open the door for another suitor, but he’ll have the role to start.

The Twins Final 25

My first Minnesota Twins 25 man roster projection came out way back in January, the second version was then looked at in the middle of March. Now with Spring Training virtually over, it's time to get serious about who's coming north. It seems pretty clear who Minnesota will bring, but before the final announcement is made, I need to take one last shot.

The Twins still have just over 40 guys left in camp, and 10 of them are non-roster guys. A few of them have already been told they'll be reassigned to Rochester, so that helps with clarity a bit further. Given what we know, here's how I see the final 25 shaking out.

Rotation (5)

• Ervin Santana
• Hector Santiago
• Kyle Gibson
• Phil Hughes
• Tyler Duffey

Paul Molitor recently told Mike Berardino that Santiago would start game 2 behind Santana, with Gibson to follow. That means Hughes gets the fourth game of the year and the fifth starter makes their debut against the White Sox. While the 5th starter could have been Trevor May or Adalberto Mejia, it's Tyler Duffey who has had a spring worthy of holding onto the job. I still think long term he profiles best in the pen, but to start 2017, this is where he begins.

Starting Lineup (9)

• Jason Castro C
• Joe Mauer 1B
• Brian Dozier 2B
• Jorge Polanco SS
• Miguel Sano 3B
• Eddie Rosario LF
• Byron Buxton CF
• Max Kepler RF
• ByungHo Park DH

No changes here from roster projection 2.0. Kennys Vargas was given the opportunity to win the DH spot and simply fell short. He went to the WBC, didn't play, and then got hurt when he returned. I remain skeptical Vargas is a productive big leaguer, and while the injury gives Minnesota something to pin it on, the reality is that Park is simply the better DH option.

If there's something of intrigue here, it's that Eddie Rosario put together a really nice WBC and spring in general. He's expanding the zone just a bit less, and looks locked in defensively. If he can bring back some of the magic from his rookie season, the Twins stand to benefit big time.

Bench (4)

• Eduardo Escobar
• Robbie Grossman
• Chris Gimenez
• Danny Santana

Much remains the same here from the roster projection earlier this month. Drew Stubbs failed to capitalize on his opportunity to take Grossman's spot and has been released. The biggest difference is the inclusion of Danny Santana.

The final bench spot should've (and likely would've) been Ehire Adrianza's. A strained oblique late in spring training is going to have him open the season on the DL, and that likely saves Santana from the DFA that was looming. I don't see him as a productive big leaguer, he plays poor defense everywhere and struggles with the bat, but he's going to get a couple weeks to prove it.

Bullpen (7)

• Brandon Kitnzler Closer
• Ryan Pressly Setup
• Matt Belisle
• Justin Haley
• Craig Breslow
• Taylor Rogers
• Alex Wimmers

The bullpen has seen a little bit of a shakeup since earlier this month. Chargois was optioned to Triple-A, and while it would've been nice to see him make the big league club, the reality was that a shaky spring did him in. I expect him to grab saves for Minnesota at some point in 2017, but he'll start the year on the farm.

Taking the place of Chargois comes down to a two man race between Michael Tonkin and Alex Wimmers. The former is out of options and likely wouldn't pass through waivers, but his spring hasn't been indicative of a guy the Twins can rely on. Coming back on a minor league deal, Wimmers has been solid enough in the limited spring action, and could offer some value in middle relief. His velocity has seen a spike since moving to the pen, he has been a better pitcher. It remains a tossup as to what the Twins do there, but Tonkin may have used his last chance.

Twins 25 Man Roster Projection 2.0

With just a couple of weeks left of baseball down in Fort Myers, the Twins are gearing up quickly for the beginning of the 2017 Major League Baseball season. In what should be a much more competitive season, Paul Molitor's club is looking to put their best foot forward. It's been nearly two months since I last looked at the 25 Minnesota will take north two months ago, and an update is more than overdue.

Although there hasn't been a ton of shuffling, the Twins have been dealt a significant injury blow, as well as having played more than a handful of games. Looking at the landscape right now, here's how I see it playing out:

Rotation (5)

• Ervin Santana
• Phil Hughes
• Kyle Gibson
• Hector Santiago
• Adalberto Mejia

The only change here is that Trevor May is obviously no longer a candidate. I think he had the inside track, but with a torn UCL, he's definitely out of the picture. The Twins could go Ryan Vogelsong for the final spot, but that'd be settling in the most disappointing way possible. Jose Berrios could also factor in, as he's got a higher upside the Mejia. Thus far though, Mejia has been sharp this spring, gives Minnesota another lefty, and has the staying power to remain in the rotation for the long haul.

Starting Lineup (9)

• Jason Castro C
• Joe Mauer 1B
• Brian Dozier 2B
• Jorge Polanco SS
• Miguel Sano 3B
• Eddie Rosario LF
• Byron Buxton CF
• Max Kepler RF
• ByungHo Park DH

There wasn't ever going to be much change among the starters, they'd been cemented nearly from the get go. The switch here comes in the form of the designated hitter. Initially I had Park pegged, and felt the need to switch things around when he was removed from the 40 man roster. The reality is he's a superior player in comparison to Kennys Vargas, and he's looked as much this spring.

Park is fully healthy with his wrist surgically repaired. He's now more acclimated to the culture of Major League Baseball, as well as undoubtedly feeling more comfortable in a new country. He's looked relaxed at the plate, has chased less, and connected more. Expecting a breakout year from ByungHo is far from a stretch.

Bench (4)

• Eduardo Escobar
• Robbie Grossman
• Ehire Adrianza
• Chris Gimenez

The only way for Grossman to be unseated would be if the Twins decided they need more of a defensive presence in the outfield off of the bench. In that scenario, Drew Stubbs could get some consideration. Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianza don't pair particularly well, in that they both play the same set of positions, but the former has a bit better bat while the latter plays incredible defense.

Behind the dish, it's become apparent that Chris Gimenez is going to be Jason Castro's backup. He has a level of familiarity with Derek Falvey and Thad Levine having played for both of their previous organizations. He's a strong veteran, and while he may not do anything exceptionally well, he's more than capable as a big leaguer. I'd still bet on Mitch Garver being the next man up however, even ahead of John Ryan Murphy.

Bullpen (7)

• Brandon Kintzler Closer
• Ryan Pressly Setup
• J.T. Chargois
• Matt Belisle
• Justin Haley
• Craig Breslow
• Taylor Rogers

As it stands in this piece, the pen has seen a pretty significant shakeup from the former roster projection. Kintzler and Pressly remain status quo at the back, but from there, things get interesting. Matt Belisle was brought in on a major league deal and is going to have a role, while I also believe the Twins will keep Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in long relief.

At some point, J.T. Chargois could go from middle relief to high leverage, and it's a role he seems really well suited for. Then the Twins give themselves some real flexibility in having two capable lefties. Craig Breslow has reinvented himself, and looked very strong this spring. Pairing him with the youth of Taylor Rogers could be a great developmental tool as well, and both southpaws can get batters out from both sides of the plate.

We're not too far removed from Spring Training coming to a conclusion, and as we draw ever more near to that point, the Twins will continue to make cuts and provide more clarity. I feel good about this collection of players, and think Minnesota will have an immediate boost in the win column because of them.

The 25 Headed To Target Field

The Minnesota Twins are quickly closing in on an end to the offseason. With pitchers and catchers reporting to sunny Fort Myers in short order, Paul Molitor and the Twins brass will need to evaluate who they take north to start the 2017 season. Projecting the 25 man roster in January once again leaves plenty of room for shifting, but I'll try to sort through what I see happening.

This offseason, Brian Dozier had been the talk of the town in regards to a potential trade with the Dodgers. He's not going anywhere now, and it would seem, for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, here's the 25 guys I believe Paul Molitor is best positioned to win with in 2017 assuming Derek Falvey and Thad Levine hold onto their second basemen.

Rotation (5)

• Ervin Santana
• Phil Hughes
• Kyle Gibson
• Hector Santiago
• Trevor May

The biggest question mark here is Phil Hughes. Coming off Thoracic Outlet surgery, his health remains a major question. Players heal differently, and the surgery isn't one that has been perfected on baseball players by any means. I think he goes out of the gate, and the hope would be that his troubles are behind him health wise.

If Hughes is unable to stake claim to a rotation spot, I'd look next at Nick Tepesch, Adalberto Mejia and Jose Berrios with the latter holding a slight advantage. In reality, I think both start at Triple-A. Gibson, Santana, and Santiago are locks, unless Minnesota decides to make a late play on trading Ervin (which I'd support). Trevor May has worked as a reliever for much of the last two seasons now, but his back simply can't hack it. He may not be as dominant strikeout wise as a starter, but I think it's the best role for him to consistently contribute.

A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting rotation in baseball and it wasn't particularly close. It shouldn't be that bad again, but this group being around league average is quite a stretch too.

Starting Lineup (9)

• Jason Castro C
• Joe Mauer 1B
• Brian Dozier 2B
• Jorge Polanco SS
• Miguel Sano 3B
• Eddie Rosario LF
• Byron Buxton CF
• Max Kepler RF
• Byungho Park DH  Kennys Vargas DH

Most of this should be pretty expected. Castro was brought in to start, and Dozier keeps the duo with Polanco up the middle if he stays. I'd like to see Mauer play less, but he remains the club's best defensive first basemen. Sano should settle into third a bit more, and the outfield should be pretty much set. I could see Molitor going Grossman in left over Rosario, but I think you start with the upside play of Rosario.

The one player that I continue to be higher on than everyone else is Byungho Park. I think there was a lot more to the wrist injury last year than we were told, and I'd be far from surprised to see him have a bounce back season. KBO players have fared well in the big leagues, and being the best over there, should give him a fighting chance.

Update: Vargas was DFA'd by the Twins when they signed Matt Belisle. I still think he's a superior option to Kennys Vargas, but he's got a massive hill to climb at this point. It appears that the new regime will give Vargas every opportunity to run away with the role.

Ideally, I'd rather not have Polanco playing shortstop, but Dozier would need to be moved for that to happen. Sano also has to get significantly better defensively this season if he's going to help Twins pitchers out.

Bench (4)

• Eduardo Escobar
• Robbie Grossman
• Mitch Garver
• Zach Granite Ehire Adrianza

This is probably the toughest area thus far to nail down just because of what options the Twins have at their disposal. I'd consider both Escobar and Grossman to be locks, but from there things get dicey. For the backup catcher role, John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver, and Chris Gimenez will need to battle it out. Gimenez has a leg up with Falvey, while Murphy was brought in by the former regime. I'm going with the offensive play here though, and believed that Garver deserved a shot last season. It's time he gets it.

I really wrestled with the last spot, and Granite ends up getting the nod for me. J.B. Shuck was worth -13 DRS over 60 games in CF for the White Sox last season. I like Daniel Palka a lot, but he can't play centerfield, and Danny Santana offers little in the way of offense or defense at this point. Granite would be making a big jump from Double-A, and he really only started to hit last season. That said, he'll steal bases, can be a pinch runner, and give Minnesota elite defense at all three outfield spots off of the bench.

Update: When the Twins signed Ehire Adrianza, I think it all but put the nail in Danny Santana's coffin. The interesting thing here is the new proposed bench would only consist of one extra outfielder, and it's a guy that is average at best defensively while not being capable of playing all three positions. Eduardo Escobar may actually have to hold off Adrianza on his own as well.

Bullpen (7)

• Brandon Kintzler Closer
• Ryan Pressly Setup
• J.T. Chargois Setup
• Taylor Rogers
• Michael Tonkin
• Tyler Duffey Matt Belisle
• Justin Haley

There's a pretty glaring omission here, and that's by design. I'm not counting on Glen Perkins to be back for the Twins on Opening Day, and I'm far from certain as to what he'll give them throughout the season. Perkins underwent serious shoulder surgery in which he required his labrum being reattached to his shoulder. I'd love to see him return, look like an All Star, and be a potential trade chip to a contender in July. I just don't see it happening.

That being said, the closer incumbent is Brandon Kintzler. He's not an ideal fit in that he doesn't get the ball by anyone. He struck out just 5.8 per nine last season, but he also walked just 1.3 per nine. I'd rather get Kintzler to a lower leverage role, and I think the emergence of J.T. Chargois can accomplish that. I like Pressly a lot and think he also could factor into save situations for the Twins.

Taylor Rogers and Michael Tonkin return with both being reliable if not incredibly high ceiling options. By moving Duffey back to the pen, he settles into a scenario that he's familiar with having been a college reliever. His limited pitch repertoire should play up more in relief, and he could be a dominant arm. Rounding out the group, and operating as the long man, is Justin Haley. Selected with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft, Haley doesn't have an incredible ceiling, but should have a pretty safe floor.

Update: Belisle becomes a lock after being signed to a big league deal by Minnesota. I think Duffey makes a lot of sense in relief, but suppose this gives the Twins a chance to allow him to keep starting at Triple-A. Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, Craig Breslow, and a host of vets are going to compete for the final spots. Haley may not stick despite being the first Rule 5 pick, and I'd guess Tonkin has to be feeling on the hot seat. Ideally, Rogers and Chargois need to go north in my opinion.