Twins Final Opening Day Roster Projection

They say the third time’s the charm right? My initial 2019 roster projection was put out right around the beginning of Spring Training. The amended version debuted on March 11. With just six days until Target Field shows off Rocco Baldelli’s first 25 man roster, it’s time to get serious.

At this point in camp there’s a handful of non-roster invitees left. The prospects have been jettisoned, the guys with opt outs are largely decided upon, and we’re using ink to write down names at this point. Today Minnesota optioned Fernando Romero to Triple-A, and that brings another level of clarity to the club.

Let’s get going, here’s your 2019 Minnesota Twins:

Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez

Changes: None
FINAL UPDATE: All Correct

Nothing to see here, everything is status quo with this group. Given the unnecessary nature of the 5^th starter to begin the year though, Perez probably pitches out of the pen in the beginning.

UPDATE: Hours after this writing, Tim Collins was cut. Ryne Harper is now likely to be the final arm out of the Twins pen.

Bullpen (7): Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Adalberto Mejia, Matt Magill, Tim Collins

Changes: Addison Reed to IL, Fernando Romero to AAA
FINAL UPDATE: May, Parker, Rogers, Hildenberger, Mejia, Ryne Harper

Even before the Twins confirmed that Addison Reed was dealing with injury, I opined that a trip to the IL looked likely. His stuff hasn’t been there, and he’s been hit around plenty. Now with a confirmed thumb injury and a week of inactivity, he’s a good bet to start on the IL.

Fernando Romero really scuffled down the stretch during Spring Training, and his roster spot looked in jeopardy about a week ago. Unfortunately this exposes the Twins lack of depth, and he’ll need to get off to a fast start in order to stop the bleeding there.

With Romero headed to Rochester, non-roster invitee Tim Collins makes the club. He hasn’t been good since 2012, and hasn’t pitched consistent innings since 2013. Now healthy and further removed from surgery, Minnesota is hoping that’s the version they’ll employ.

Also worth monitoring here is Matt Magill. He too hasn’t pitched in roughly a week. If there’s an IL spot claimed by him to start the year, Spring Training star Ryne Harper makes the club. The curveball is nasty, and he’s got strong K/BB rates on the farm, but he’s a 30-year-old career minor leaguer with lots of uncertainty surrounding him.

Catchers (3): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

Changes: Add Willians Astudillo
FINAL UPDATE: All Correct

Again, no changes here. Astudillo could be optioned to Triple-A if Minnesota wants to stash Tyler Austin but that doesn’t seeme all that necessary.

Infielders (5): C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Ehire Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez

Changes: Miguel Sano to IL, Lucas Duda released
FINAL UPDATE: Cron, Schoop, Polanco, Adrianza, Gonzalez, Tyler Austin

No changes here either. There’s been talk of Ronald Torreyes pushing Ehire out, but I don’t see it. Yes everyone is enamored with Tyler Austin’s spring, but he’s a right-handed bat that plays the same position as two right-handed starters. Keeping him around for something like five at bats a week doesn’t seem sensible.

Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jake Cave

Changes: None
FINAL UPDATE: All Correct

No changes have taken place here either. Michael Reed likely gets exposed to waivers and Minnesota will hope to pass him through. Cave hasn’t done anything to lose his job though.

Findings from the Fort

I landed in sunny Fort Myers on Tuesday morning, and have now got in three full days of Twins action. I’ll be here for a couple more days, but rather than pile everything into one offering, I figured I’d break up the notes a bit. With minor league action having kicked off this week, there’ literally something going on from 9am until about 3:45 each day. I need to do a better job of sunscreen application, but here’s what I’ve gathered while taking it all in.

Most of the tech is now in application phase, as opposed to being regularly implemented. Twins Daily’s Parker Hageman did a killer job breaking down all the ways Minnesota is looking to close the gap between the top innovator organizations. There’s no denying they’ve made extensive strides, but most of the evidence is gone with game action now taking place. This isn’t surprising as guys are working through at bats and bullpens. There’s still plenty of recording taking place from video monitoring and radar work, but Rapsodo devices, Edgertronic cameras, and Blast Motion sensors aren’t making their way into pre-game routines.

Each spring I find myself noting one or two players that truly have transformed their bodies. Maybe I’m being lazy in my analysis, but there hasn’t been anyone that has stood out dramatically to me. If I had to tab someone, it would be first base prospect Lewin Diaz. He’s dropped more weight and looks to be going the route of cut as opposed to bulk. No longer a top Twins prospect, he has previously been a darling of the system. If the power bat breaks out though, he’ll find plenty of opportunity to rise through the system.

Plenty has been made about the depth Minnesota has up the middle on the farm. Royce Lewis is a superstar but sleeping on Wander Javier or Yunior Severino isn’t a good practice. Javier started a big-league spring training game today against the Nationals and was beyond impressive in the field. He has great hands, a smooth feel to his defense, and a stellar arm. He wasn’t overmatched at the plate and drew two walks. It’s great to see him back healthy and in action. Severino has impressive size for his age and was a great get thanks to the Atlanta Braves transgressions. He’s played more second base but is still just settling into being such a good athlete.

Miguel Sano was seen working out this morning near the batting cages. It doesn’t appear the boot on his foot is going to limit what the Twins expect from him conditioning wise, and that’s a great thing. He was focused on lower body exercises and will undoubtedly be itching for game action once given the green light.

I’m not sure what happens to Addison Reed at this point. He’s got a couple of weeks left to get right, but the red flags are popping up everywhere. His velocity against the Nationals today was topping out at 92, and more regularly he sat 89-90. Across 18 pitches he generated just two swings and misses (with one being a check swing), and he served up an oppo taco to Juan Soto. Right now, he’s not one of the Twins seven best relief options, and a stint on the Injured List to start the year should certainly be under consideration. His two-year deal was signed under reasonable expectations, but things simply have not gone right for the veteran hurler.

Juan Soto just took Addison Reed out to left field on a 91mph pitch. #MNTwins #Nats pic.twitter.com/OLPG46BrkJ

— Ted (@tlschwerz) March 14, 2019

Yes, it’s just Spring Training, but Byron Buxton’s production has continued to be for real. His homer against the Red Sox at Jet Blue yesterday was a mammoth shot over the green monster, and he hit the ball hard this afternoon against Eric Fedde. It was nice to see him run on the Nationals some, and even his outs have been well struck. There’s no one in the organization with a higher ceiling than Buck and putting it together at some percentile of this level makes him a bonafide star.

There’s been a handful of reserves that have played themselves into noteworthy situations for Minnesota. Ryne Harper has flipped straight filth across the plate, and Tim Collins looks revitalized in his post Tommy John career. Neither are going to make the roster, but as depth on the farm, Rocco Baldelli must be impressed. Infielder Adam Rosales has also been apart of this group, and his exploits may even lead them. Given the necessity for utility types in baseball, the 35-year-old journeyman may end up being trade bait in a couple of weeks.

Putting a bow on all of this is 2018 first round pick Trevor Larnach. Getting into his first MLB Spring Training game as a reserve against the Nationals, he walloped a home run to left center in his first at bat. Opposite field power was a calling card for the former Oregon State star, and he wasted no time in showing that off. Taking a strong round of batting practice on the back fields this morning, it had to be fun seeing that translate to the big-league dish.

In his first spring training at-bat with the @twins, 2018 first-round draft pick Trevor Larnach (@trevorlarnach) hits a long, opposite field homer. @BeaverBaseball #MnTwins pic.twitter.com/GzAipUpiY2

— Seth Stohs (@SethTweets) March 14, 2019

The Twins are home against the Orioles on Friday, with the Double and Triple-A squads playing host for their minor league games for each of the next two days. Plenty more action to come.

Twins Opening Day Roster Projection 2.0

It’s nearly the middle of March, and the Minnesota Twins are just 17 days away from their 2019 Opening Day game against the Cleveland Indians. Roughly one month ago I made my first roster projection for the season, and a handful of things have transpired since then. Heading down to Fort Myers to see the club in action this week, I figured now was a good time to come out with a revised edition.

Most notably, the club signed Marwin Gonzalez and Miguel Sano is destined to begin the season on the Injured List. That shuffles a few things for position players, but there’s a relative level of clarity there. It’s on the pitching side that things remain up in the air, and that will be worth monitoring down the stretch.

Here’s how I see things looking on March 28 given the information we have today.

Rotation (5): Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez

Changes: None

The rotation has all been locked in since the beginning of Spring Training. Martin Perez was inked as the 5^th starter, and while the move has drawn plenty of ire (myself included), it appears the Twins are right thus far. Wes Johnson has the former Rangers prospect shoving near 97 mph, and he’s working with a different pitch mix that could unlock a new level of effectiveness. Minnesota targeted Anibal Sanchez as an outlier last year and witnessed him succeed in the Braves organization. Perez looks to be that guy in 2019, and everyone wants to see it come together here.

Bullpen (7): Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero, Matt Magill

Changes: Addison Reed to IL

Addison Reed was signed to a two-year contract last winter, and he was coming off a 2.84 ERA. He’s been very good out of the pen for most of his career, and he’d pitched in high-leverage situations tallying 125 saves to his credit. Unfortunately, with Minnesota, he turned in a 4.50 ERA, 5.11 FIP, and the strikeout numbers sagged dramatically. He also lost another mph of velocity for the third year in a row, and the swinging strikes fell off a cliff. Despite the small sample, spring training hasn’t been kind to him either. I’m not sure if he’s still hurt from 2018, but the club could make a case to stash him and let him find a bit more success on a rehab stint.

Should the Twins decide that Reed is right, and he needs to come north, the decision then comes down to the trio of Matt Magill, Trevor Hildenberger, and Fernando Romero. Magill looks like he has plenty of supporters in the clubhouse and will make the roster. Hildenberger has options, but despite late season struggles, has been plenty reliable in the past. No matter how much talk there’s been about Romero, letting him have a couple weeks of working as a reliever in real game action at Triple-A could be good. If Minnesota needs to make a tough decision, I’d bet on it being a short trip to Rochester for Fernando.

Catchers (3): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

Changes: Add Willians Astudillo

There’s somewhat of a domino effect caused by Miguel Sano needing to start the year on the IL. Marwin Gonzalez goes from super utility to primary third basemen, and that opens a bench spot. Astudillo isn’t the most ideal catcher, but he provides defensive flexibility with the ability to play all over the diamond. La Tortuga probably isn’t going to live up to his September hype, but he’ll be given the opportunity early.

Castro returns with a clean bill of health, and although he’ll be the presumed starter, a defensively revitalized Mitch Garver could challenge sooner rather than later. Castro is in the final year of his deal, and Garver assuming a more serious hold on the full-time role would be a great development for the Twins.

Infielders (5): C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Ehire Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez

Changes: Miguel Sano to IL, Lucas Duda released

Miguel Sano had as impressive of a winter as the Twins could’ve hoped, but it ended on an unlucky note with a gash to the back of his heel halting the start of his 2019 season. He’ll be ready in May, but we could end up waiting to see him until June. That development makes the addition of Marwin Gonzalez even more imperative.

The Astros used Marwin all over the place last year, and Minnesota will likely do the same as soon as they are able. Ehire Adrianza will be able to spell most of the infield positions, and Marwin will need to slot in primarily at third from the get-go. A platoon at first base doesn’t appear likely, meaning Tyler Austin needs to be dealt or passed through waivers (unlikely) before hitting Triple-A. Duda was a nice get for camp, but not making the team, he’ll look to latch on elsewhere.

Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jake Cave

Changes: None

No changes to the outfield, and that’s a serious positive for this group. Byron Buxton has been en fuego this spring, while the starting trio has remained healthy. Jake Cave is due for some regression from his impressive rookie season, but he’s more than a serviceable fourth regardless.

It took a while for Nelson Cruz to appear in game action this spring, but being the veteran he is, that was never cause for concern. He won’t play outfield aside from the remote possibility of appearing in interleague action. That said, the 38-year-old year old should launch plenty of longballs from the heart of Minnesota’s lineup this year.

If there is something to monitor here, it’s Michael Reed. Like Jake Cave before him, the front office tabbed Reed as a player with a potential for more. He was hurt to start the spring and has just begun getting into game action. Zack Granite was jettisoned off the 40 man before him, and the hope would be that he could be shipped to Triple-A. Without options though, Reed will need to clear waivers before being able to be removed off the 40 man.

Who Goes North for the Twins

With the Minnesota Twins now involved in spring training action, and exhibition games well under way, it's a good time to take a look at the 25 that will head north with the club at the end of March. Having had significant turnover and uncertainty throughout seasons in recent memory, 2018 brings a breath of fresh air. This club should be relatively simple to project, and that's the mark of a strong team.

Following up a Postseason berth and a strong showing over the course of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Twins had a few key areas to improve in order to take the next step. This offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have executed a near flawless blueprint, and they have the product on the field positioned to make a run for the AL Central division title.

Although not set in stone, there's significant clarity when it comes to deciphering the Opening Day 25 man, and here's a good bet at what it could look like:

Infielders (9)

• Jason Castro C
• Mitch Garver C
• Ehire Adrianza Util
• Brian Dozier 2B
• Eduardo Escobar Util
• Joe Mauer 1B
• Jorge Polanco SS
• Miguel Sano 3B
• Logan Morrison 1B

Both catcher positions are all but locked in, and the starting combination up the middle should be set. Joe Mauer is inked at first, and Logan Morrison will back him up while serving as the full-time designated hitter. Although Adrianza could be pushed by Erick Aybar for a job, I think the former's best chance to get on the roster is a potential suspension to Miguel Sano. Sano is already set to play the field in spring training games, so his injury recovery should be all but over. Major League Baseball has yet to speak with Miguel in regards to allegations, and no matter what the outcome, I'd think a 30 game suspension is the max penalty. Outside of the third basemen, there really is no level of intrigue here.

Outfielders (4)

• Byron Buxton CF
• Robbie Grossman LF/RF
• Max Kepler RF
• Eddie Rosario LF

This group is virtually locked in as well. The trio of "Nothing falls but raindrops" is a given, and their rotational fourth should end up being Grossman. Zack Granite is a significantly better defender, and would provide a nice speed option on the bench, but he has options remaining and is available to Minnesota at any point in time. I could see Granite forcing his way onto the roster this spring, but the more likely scenario is that Grossman sticks until it no longer works. The Twins would need to DFA him, and doing that before necessary doesn't seem like a pressing matter.

Pitchers (12)

• Jose Berrios SP
• Tyler Duffey RP
• Zach Duke RP
• Kyle Gibson SP
• Trevor Hildenberger RP
• Phil Hughes SP
• Adalberto Mejia SP
• Jake Odorizzi SP
• Ryan Pressly RP
• Addison Reed RP
• Fernando Rodney RP
• Taylor Rogers RP

Despite not having Ervin Santana available to them out of the gate, I'd still imagine the Twins go with a full five-man starting rotation. That group would include Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia, and Hughes. The last two spots are somewhat up in the air, but Hughes' contract should afford him an opportunity, and Minnesota would need to see significant improvement from Anibal Sanchez this spring to pencil him in. The relief corps is vastly improved, and that group should be relatively set in stone. If Minnesota is serious about using Duffey as a starter, I suppose a trip to Triple-A could make some sense, in which case Alan Busenitz takes his spot in the bullpen.

Again, in comparison to recent years, this Minnesota Twins squad has the least amount of question marks when looking at Opening Day. Obviously that's a great thing, and a testament to the talent available to Paul Molitor. Having defined roles and positions from the get go is a good place to be, and allows the club to work from depth as situations present themselves.

Some Storylines For Spring

It's back, baseball is finally back. On February 13 the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for Spring Training, and the club will hold it's first workout on Valentine's Day. With position players largely following them, and expected to arrive en masse shortly, it's time to take a look at a few storylines worth monitoring over the exhibition slate.

Coming off of a Postseason berth, and a Wild Card appearance, Paul Molito's squad is looking for an opportunity to take the next step. With the young core another year older, they should be expected to carry an even larger part of the load. While results can be scrutinized and picked apart in Grapefruit League action, it's what takes place beyond the box score that's generally the most telling. Those scenarios are what highlight the early slate, and that's what we'll take a look at below:

Does Kennys Vargas survive the roster crunch?

Currently slotted in as the backup first basemen and rotational bench bat, Vargas is out of options for the Minnesota Twins. The power stroke is very real for Vargas, but he's fallen a bit short when putting it all together. After an .833 OPS across 47 sporadic games in 2016, Vargas dipped back to a .758 OPS across 78 sporadic outings in 2017. In 2018, it's do or die time, but it may already be too late.

You have to go back to 2015 to find what I think may be a turning point in Vargas' production. After making the roster out of the gate, Vargas slumped mightily through April. In 12 games from May 1-17 though, he put forth a .956 OPS and was among Minnesota's hottest hitters. With just two homers through that time period however, Terry Ryan set him back to Triple-A searching for power. Since that point, Vargas has seemed to settle in, and his opportunities have been limited at best. In a reserve role, his bat has to be consistently ready to go, and the glove needs work. Right now, the Twins probably don't have anyone ready to come in and take his job, but it's hardly a given that they don't find a suitor by the end of March.

Grossman, Granite, or your best guess?

Looking at how the 25 man is shaping up from a 1,000 foot view right now, it appears Minnesota will carry just four true outfielders. With Robbie Grossman being extended a new contract for 2018, he's the front runner for the designated hitter and rotational outfield role. While his performance wasn't abysmal in the grass a season ago, 2016 could rear it's head at any moment. There's no doubt that the position is Grossman's to lose, but the emergence of other names is a real possibility.

On the 40 man roster, only Zack Granite is on the outside looking in among the outfield group. His .611 OPS in his first 40 MLB games leaves plenty to be desired, but should also be expected to rise. At the minor league level, Granite was an average hitter, and also an on-base asset. Postin a .347 OBP at Double-A, and a .392 OBP last season at Triple-A, his speed was allowed to be unleashed on the basepaths. Grossman has more pop than Granite does, but expecting Zack to contribute at a similar OBP level is hardly a reach. The dark horse in this competition is LaMonte Wade, and while he has yet to play above Double-A, he could make a big leap sooner rather than later.

Rotation, staff, and the Alston advantage.

At this moment, the Twins have yet to address their most glaring need of the offseason, a starting pitcher. By the time the team breaks from Fort Myers, I expect that scenario to have been handled. The Twins will be rolling with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, an acquisition, and a question mark when the regular season opens. The 5th spot in the rotation is up for grabs, and while Phil Hughes' contract will afford him first crack, the emergence of Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, or a host of other names would be welcomed competition.

The bullpen has been shored up, and Addison Reed was one of the best gets of the offseason across the entire landscape of the league. New pitching coach Garvin Alston will begin to put his philosophies on display both in game and off the field of play. Watching the bullpen take shape, as well as its usage and construction will be worth monitoring. As the Twins seek more strikeouts, and a pitching staff that climbs the league ladder, it will be extremely important for Alston to make a more significant mark than his predecessor.

Homegrown gems making their mark.

Each year, there seems to be a few players that come in without a big league job, that end up leaving a lasting impression. Looking at the group of 13 non-roster invitees for 2018, there's a trio of homegrown prospects that have me intrigued. 

Starting on the mound, you have to look at reliever Jake Reed. The hard thrower was left unprotected and went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft. He has the makings of a strikeout reliever with strong velocity, and an ability to kick the door in to the highest level. He got just 4.0 IP during spring training last year allowing four runs on six hits with a 3/2 K/BB ratio. His season also started with an injury occurred during the last game in Fort Myers. A strong showing could put him right back on the radar for an early season promotion.

In the infield, you look no further than former 1st round pick Nick Gordon. Heavily scrutinized as a shortstop, Gordon has yet to be pushed over to second base. He'll get his first real big league test in March this year, and should spend the majority of the season at Triple-A. After a hot start at Double-A, his season took a dive down the stretch and he posted a .749 OPS when things were said and done. How he handles big league pitching this spring, as well as what he shoes with the glove, could go a long ways to give us an idea of what and how he'll contribute for the Twins.

Wrapping up the group is a guy behind the plate that deserves more attention, Brian Navarreto. While the bat has lagged significantly for the 2013 6th round pick, he's been great as a defender. Across 127 stolen base attempts in his 290 games behind the dish in the minors, he's thrown out a ridiculous 50% of runners. Regarded as a strong receiver and a trustworthy game manager, Navrreto will get a chance to showcase his worth as a potential big league backup down the road.

The Twins Spring Narratives Worth Watching

With the offseason officially behind us, and the first pitches of Spring Training already having been thrown, the Twins will kick off their slate of games down in Fort Myers. As the club embarks on a turnaround in 2017, there's plenty of things to keep an eye on in the first year of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine being at the helm.

Although the front office isn't visible on the field of play, their decisions should be apparent to those that have become accustomed to how things used to run. For Molitor, he'll have some decisions that are put in front of him requiring better execution and results from the 103 losses suffered a season ago.

Over the course of the next month or so though, there's a handful of key situations worth monitoring.

The Battle To Hit

This offseason, Byungho Park was DFA'd and had to pass through waivers. He went unclaimed and was outrighted to Triple-A Rochester. Still invited to big league camp, he's battling with Kennys Vargas for the designated hitter role, and he's got a massive hill to climb. Vargas is going to be given every opportunity to head north, and Park is no longer on the 40 man roster.

I'd be shocked if Park doesn't get some run at the big league level this season, and I expect him to have a strong second season in the big leagues. Vargas has a lot of supporters, and given his numbers, it seems a bit over-zealous to me. Regardless, Minnesota needs to get production out of the DH spot, and the responsibility will fall on one of these two.

Rounding Out the Rotation

Four of the five starting pitchers seem to be locked in at this point. Ervin Santana is going to get the ball on Opening Day, while some order of Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, and Hector Santiago follow him. From there, it's a toss up between the likes of Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, Adalberto Mejia, and maybe even Justin Haley. While Minnesota was the worst pitching team last season, they have no shortage of options in 2017.

Going north, I'd expect May to get the nod. He's going to make the club, and given his injury issues due to bullpen usage, I can't see any reason not to give him another crack at starting. Berrios has nothing to prove at the Triple-A level, but giving an arbitration deal to Hector Santiago took up a rotation spot with a questionable ceiling. I'd love to see Duffey transition to the pen, and outside of Mejia, the only other name I'm really intrigued by is Haley.

Playing Out The Pen

With the bullpen needing a boost, the Twins also have a large contingent of relief options. Only Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly should be considered locks at this point. Glen Perkins probably isn't a good bet to count on, and the other five arms could come from a group of about 10-12 players.

This season, the Twins need more strikeout pitchers and a better usage plan to utilize pitchers strengths. Creating a group with higher ceilings in general is a good look, and Minnesota should be well positioned to do that.

Learning The Ropes

The left side of the infield could be a disaster, or it may end up being overblown speculation. Either way, we know Jorge Polanco wasn't good at all a season ago when playing shortstop. There's always been concerns about him sticking there, and we need proof that he and Brian Dozier can coexist. Next to him, Miguel Sano will be attempting to prove he can handle the hot corner. A big boy that's already been bumped from two positions in his professional career, a full time DH role would be unfortunate.

There's glove first options for the Twins that can take over, but the reality is that Molitor's lineup is best when both of these two are in it. They need to provide defensive value along with bringing their bat to the park.

A Surprise On The 25

Down in Fort Myers this year, the Twins have a few bigger name non-roster guys. Both from within the organization, and joining it for the first time, will any of them make a surprise jump to the 25 man? Can Park work his way back? Does Vogelsong or Tepesch have value? Where does Drew Stubbs fit?

Over the course of the spring slate, the Twins will have to sort out who they want to protect, and who may have a future. Carlos Quentin was the lone ranger a season ago, and there's more than a few guys just looking for a chance. I'm not sure any of them can separate themselves far enough, but if there's one thing that's certain, it's that Minnesota could use to improve the bottom of their active roster.

For a team coming off 103 losses, there's no place for this group to go but up. They have significantly more talent than the 2016 record displayed, and there's plenty to keep an eye on over the next month. Buckle up and let's get going.

Not A Drill, We Have Made It Twins Fans!

With the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training, the offseason has officially come to a conclusion. Coming off the worst season in franchise history, rewriting the record books in the 2017 season can't come soon enough. Fortunately, with Spring Training baseball just around the corner, we'll be able to completely turn the page sooner rather than later.

The offseason has been relatively nondescript for the Twins, but that's absolutely the way the organization should have wanted it. The biggest move came when the front office shakeup changed the face of the franchise. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should immediately breathe new, and needed life into the club, and bring a more open way of thinking when it comes to getting the most out of players.

The Brian Dozier dance with the Los Angeles Dodgers dominated headlines, but the deal never was consummated with the team residing at Chavez Ravine failing to ante up for the value of the Twins second basemen. That leaves Paul Molitor looking at an up the middle duo of Jorge Polanco and Dozier, which should be quite intriguing and worth keeping an eye on.

Outside of the big league deal offered to Matt Belisle, the home nine spent most of their acquisition time this winter handing out minor league deals. Guys like Ryan Vogelsong, Drew Stubbs, and Nick Tepesch all are being given an opportunity to earn their way on the team. Byungho Park finds himself needing to prove his value to the new regime, and Kennys Vargas is being given the keys to a starting role.

Most of the injury situations have sorted themselves out. Phil Hughes should be expected to be all systems go, with the only real concern still being Glen Perkins. Coming back from severe shoulder surgery, it's a near certainty Perkins misses Opening Day, and his effectiveness for the remainder of his career could be in doubt as well.

At the end of the day, the Twins stayed the course, and that's probably the best route for them to take right now. While prospect lists don't look at them glowingly, their under-25 talent is significantly present in the big league roster. A organizational turnaround is going to come on the backs of players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Jose Berrios. More than any other move on the market, Minnesota has to get those guys in a place where they are consistently producing at a high level.

From this point until sometime into the fall however, baseball has begun. We've survived the offseason, and the Minnesota Twins are nearly ready to take the field in 2017.

Wednesday From The Fort

On Wednesday, I spent the majority of my day over at the Lee County Sports Complex and Hammond Stadium taking in different aspects of spring training. With the Double and Triple-A teams taking on the Orioles in the early afternoon, as well as the Twins battling the Red Sox at night, there was plenty of action taking place.

Upon arriving for the day, the most necessary definition was to make my way to the back fields. Knowing that the high level minor league teams would be competing at home for the day, I was looking forward to seeing a handful of guys I've developed relationships with over the past year. While I was plenty early and beat most of the players to the field, I posted up in position to take in the Double-A action.

Although the Orioles don't have the minor league farm system that Minnesota does, the Double-A team still has a good amount of talent. Notably, Chance Sisco, one of Baltimore's top prospects, was behind the plate for them. On the Twins side, former first round pick Levi Michael was starting at second next to defensive wizard Engelb Vielma. No doubt the star of the show however was the starting pitcher, Tyler Jay.

Jay, Minnesota's 2015 first round draft pick, warmed up about 30 minutes prior to gamete. I found this interesting as starters are generally out on the field earlier. However, coming from a relief background, it's completely plausible that his routine is significantly shortened. Regardless, he took the mound in the first, and it was up to the Orioles batters to figure them out.

After a rocky start in which Jay threw just 11 of 20 strikes and gave up an earned run, he settled in. Through four complete innings pitched, Jay pumped 38 of 54 pitches for strikes, registered eight of 16 first pitch strikes, struck out five, walked one, and gave up two earned runs. All in all, his first and fourth innings were the only thing keeping him from a rather crisp start. Sitting at 95 virtually from start to finish, the velocity from the lefty is something incredibly enticing now working as a starter.

Hitting was virtually non-existent in the Double-A game. Orioles pitchers had Twins hitters generally grounding into routine outs and not doing much with the ball in play. Jay was really on hit hard in the fourth, and had the Baltimore batters swinging well after the ball was in Joe Maloney's glove prior to that. For a handful of pictures from the game, check out my Twitter account here.

Making the short walk from one field to the other, I caught a brief bit of the Triple-A action as well. Upon viewing that game, Travis Harrison blasted a homer (which caused some fun ribbing from Adam Brett Walker) before Marcus Walden came on to work his final inning. Up in the Twins half of the inning, Stephen Wickens put a charge into a ball just before Shannon Wilkerson launched a mammoth home run to left field. No idea where the game stood at that point, but the Rochester guys were putting the bat on the ball.

I stuck around a bit to watch Jake Reed come on in relief. He had recently been reassigned from big league camp, and I believe this was his first appearance on the minor league side. He hit his first Orioles batter, and then settled in. Reed has flashed some nice stuff, and consistency is going to be the name of the game if he's going to debut for the Twins this year.

For the nightcap, Boston brought a handful of regulars over to Hammond Stadium to face what looked like the Twins "A" lineup. Byron Buxton was scratched late due to being sick, but regulars were all over the rest of the field. With Mookie Betts, Pablo Sandoval, Dustin Pedroia, and Hanley Ramirez all in the Red Sox lineup, Kyle Gibson would have his hands full.

Gibson gave up a solo shot to Betts in the game's first at bat but then settled in nicely. He worked a 1-2-3 second inning getting both Ramirez and Chris Young on stickers. His third inning was another 1-2-3 and featured strikeouts of both Jackie Bradley Jr. and Betts. The Twins got homers from both Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario putting them up 7-1 in the 6th, which is when it became to call it a night.

Minnesota now leads the Crosstown Cup 3-1 on the season with six games remaining. Knocking off the Red Sox in the 2016 series would even up the All-Time record at 12 a piece. I plan on heading over to Jet Blue to take in the second Twins and Red Sox matchup of the week on Friday.

For more until then, make sure to stay tuned @tlschwerz

What Breaks The Twins In Florida?

Recently Off The Baggy took a look at what needs to play out for the Twins down in Fort Myers to start 2016 off on the right foot. Coming off a season of exceeded expectations, it's important to keep the momentum moving forward. It's hard to be optimistic without looking at what also could end up being detractors however.

While the AL Central is far from a juggernaut in the year ahead, their should be a good deal of parity. Expecting the Twins to be in the thick of things is probably a good bet, but they also profile as a team ripe for regression. With their win total being set by many right around 77, Paul Molitor will have to do what he can to stave off the step back for his club.

Down in Fort Myers, here's what the Twins need to avoid in order to sidestep a stumble out of the gate:

Another Misstep For Meyer

When Baseball Prospectus released the PECOTA numbers, Alex Meyer was among the Twins names needing to be looked at. His ERA in the low 3.00 range would be a welcomed addition to a mediocre 2015 Minnesota pen. Meyer may not make the club out of Spring Training, but he absolutely has to push the envelope. Now in his age 26 season, this needs to be the year he contributes at the big league level. Florida can't be filled with walks and inefficiency for the former top prospect, it's time for Meyer to break out.

Buxton Goes North...East

There's been a narrative conveyed far too often this offseason, and that's one of Byron Buxton not being the Twins Opening Day center fielders. Should that end up being the case, the Twins (and Major League Baseball's) top prospect would have fallen extremely flat on his face. In a scenario where Buxton goes to Rochester, his spring would've had to have been filled with next to no competent approach at the plate and horrible results. Continuing to suggest the narrative would seem to convey a belief that the worst is ahead for Buxton. At this point, Minnesota (as well as everyone else) should be operating under the belief that it's Buxton or bust, and it needs to be.

Condition For The Haul

The past two seasons, the Twins have watched two of their most important contributors hit massive second half collapses. Both Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins have struggled down the stretch (Perkins really only last year), and that needs to become a thing of the past. Molitor can't afford to have his big bats produce only part of the season. Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Byung Ho Park, and Miguel Sano need to drive the Twins all season long. Whether getting into a groove or staying in pristine condition, the Twins bats (and their closer) need to put in a full 162.

Keep Surprises Out Of The Picture

At the end of the month long grind that is spring training, the Twins watched their expected ace be nailed with an 80 game suspension in 2015. That set plans in place to have Mike Pelfrey rejoin the rotation, and push the Twins in an uncomfortable spot right out of the gate. While you'd hope another drug related suspension isn't looming, injuries popping up need to be kept at bay as well. In 2016, the Twins will have some depth to their advantage, but it will be best utilized by players pushing each other rather than out of necessity.

A Perfect March, Not November

Sure, spring training is a must in baseball, but it's generally reflective of very little. Under Molitor, the Twins surprised a season ago. The focus needs to be on making that playoff push and getting to November, and that focus starts in spring training. While getting acclimated and conditioned is a must for the entire organization, a March focus isn't going to yield the results Minnesota wants. Keep production in perspective, and understand that the first month is simply a building block for what's yet to come, not the other way around.

It's probably a bit too over the top to suggest the Twins have a playoff team right now for the 2016 season. Considering the possibility for regression though, pushing the win total upwards is a great goal and focus to hone in on. Should the Twins bypass a step backwards, this team may actually be ahead of where it should be with its youth, and set itself up nicely for years to come. It all starts in Fort Myers though, and making sure to cease any of the above narratives from playing out is a very good thing.

What Must Happen For Twins In Florida?

Baseball fans, you've made it. At this point in the winter, the offseason is nearing its conclusion, and you are about to be rewarded with the month long grind that is spring training. For the Minnesota Twins, a team coming off of a breakout season a year ago, there's some key steps to be taken in the month ahead however.

As pitchers and catchers embark on sunny Fort Myers, the Twins will soon be in full swing over at the CenturyLink Sports Complex. Now in his second season as manager, Paul Molitor will have a few narratives he needs to force playing out. Should Terry Ryan's relative inactivity this offseason fail to hurt the Twins, it will be because of the internal scenarios making the best of themselves.

Here are the key areas of focus for the Twins as they build towards their return to Target Field.

Cement for the pen

A season ago, you'd have been hard pressed to find a bigger problem area for Molitor's club than in the relief arms it employed. Going into 2016, the only guarantees in the pen are Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen. From there, the expectation would be that Trevor May and Casey Fien are included in the group. Fernando Abad is the likely lefty, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Ricky Nolasco probably figures into the situation as well. When camp breaks, Minnesota absolutely must have answers in relief.

Sano falls smoothly in right

Terry Ryan was hesitant to trade Trevor Plouffe, and for good reason. Minnesota held onto their third basemen, and that forced Miguel Sano to find another way into the field. Bringing Byung Ho Park into the fold, just bringing a bat to the park was a thing of the past for the Twins slugger. Now expected to take over for Torii Hunter in right field, Sano needs to make it work. A good athlete, and less than large defensive shoes to fill, Sano could very well succeed in his new role. Down in fort Myers, the Dominican native will need to do everything he can to push himself and get the stumbles out of the way prior to games counting.

Have bat, will travel for Byron Buxton

The Twins uber prospect Byron Buxton made his big league debut in 2015, and it was anything but ideal. His defensive prowess showed immediately, but his offensive game left Twins brass hoping for mediocrity. In his second big league season, Buxton will need to flash the offensive tools he's displayed on the farm. During spring training, Buxton will need to put balls in play, get on base, and cause havoc on the basepaths. It needs to be a big step forward for baseball's best prospect, and it'll start down in Florida.

Welcome Park to the big leagues

Terry Ryan shocked much of the baseball world this offseason when his Twins made the winning bid for Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. After two seasons in which he hit a combiner 100+ homers in the KBO, his power has to be his saving grace in the big leagues. Adept with the glove, it's the offense that Minnesota is relying on Park for. His average can dip, and with the strikeouts, it will. Park needs to get a couple of longballs under his belt down in Fort Myers, and his transition to the MLB game needs to happen as smoothly as possible.

Non-roster, non-issue

Almost more than any other season of memory, the Twins non-roster invitees for 2016 spring training are compiled of a star studded list. From Jose Berrios to Nick Burdi, the group is definitely pitcher heavy this time around. Considering the Twins are looking for front running rotation talent as well as bullpen arms, that's a good situation to be in. Down in Fort Myers, the non-roster guys need to step up. Berrios could do some serious work in regards to pushing himself closer to the 25 man, and Nick Burdi or Jake Reed could begin to force the Twins hand sooner rather than later.

Health above everything

Although depth is something this Twins team may have more than any other in the past, relying on it early isn't a good plan. Considering there's plenty of position and roster battles that will play out throughout the year, the last thing Paul Molitor wants is to see things decided by injury. Whether on the field or off of it, Minnesota needs to leave the Grapefruit League as healthy as they entered it.

The 2016 Minnesota Twins do not need to see all of these key areas play out to perfection to accomplish big things in the year ahead. However, the more they can count on out of the gate, the better chance they'll have to build on what was a successful 2015. We're almost there, and the smell of the freshly cut grass is more than apparent.

The Pen And its Potential

This morning, the Minnesota Twins sent Caleb Thielbar out of major league camp and back to Triple-A Rochester. With the move, the 2015 bullpen is set in stone at the major league level. Without a doubt the group has more questions marks than anything, but the potential may lie just beyond those questions.

First, let's take a quick look at how the Twins will set up the relief pitchers for the coming year:

• Blaine Boyer-Middle Reliever
• J.R. Graham-Middle Reliever
• Mike Pelfrey-Middle Reliever
• Brian Duensing-Lefty Specialist
• Tim Stauffer-Long Reliever
• Casey Fien-Setup Man
• Glen Perking-Closer

Woof! Ok now that we have that out of the way, only Glen Perkins would appear to be a pitcher that can be counted on. Assuming he's healthy, and that's probably somewhat of a sketchy assumption, Perkins will be one of the better closers in the American League. Outside of him however, the Twins have compiled a pen of relatively low-upside players, some in new roles, and some battling through regressing trends.

So where does this potential come in? Due to the current construction of the Twins bullpen, the upside is actually within who's not a part of the Opening Day list, and how they could quickly push for time.

Starting with the most exciting options, prospects Nick Burdi and Jake Reed have a lot to gain this season with the Twins. Both high selections in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, Burdi and Reed have been deserving of the hype thus far in their professional career.

After playing in the College World Series for the Louisville Cardinals, Burdi went on to continue lighting up radar guns for the Twins. Pitching through both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, Burdi had just one bad outing in 20 games (coincidentally it was his first). Across the two levels, he compiled a 16.8 K/9 while pitching to the tune of a 2.66 ERA. It's pretty safe to say that Burdi made easy work of the lower levels of the organization, and will be accelerated this season. Whether he starts in Fort Myers or Chattanooga, expect him to surface with the Twins sooner rather than later. If he can continue along the same path, he should become an option at the back of the Twins pen over the summer. Fien slipping up would likely cede chances to a Michael Tonkin type first, but it also opens the door for Burdi.

In the earlier innings, the Twins find a middle reliever in Reed that they should be able to count on for years to come. Selected out of Oregon, Reed dominated Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He continued the trend in overpowering the Arizona Fall League as well, traditionally filled with top tier prospects. Reed owned an 11.3 K/9 in 20 games last season while walking just 0.9 batters per nine innings. Efficient and dominant, the Twins will be looking to get him to the big leagues in short order as well.

Likely slated for Fort Myers, Reed may have the most to gain this year. With Pelfrey, Boyer, Graham, and even Stauffer all being relative question marks, the door should swing open. While Lester Oliveros, Logan Darnell, A.J. Achter and others reside in the higher rungs of the organization, it's Reed that the Twins can elevate the most with. Should he be able to replicate his 2014 season, Reed will get an early look from the Twins, and could be an asset to them down the stretch.

Really, the biggest takeaway from the current bullpen situation is that it is going to be an evolving entity for the Twins. Like I mentioned yesterday with positional players, the Twins can control their own talent level from within. Should they find themselves competing in the middle of the year, with pitchers like Reed and Burdi looking strong, and the bullpen in rough shape, they immediately have internal options. The current bullpen structure should be good enough to keep what is an improved staff happy, but the Twins taking a leap will come on the promotion of their top tier prospects.

Having made pitcher heavy selections in the first ten round of the draft last season, most with relief intentions, the Twins have plenty to gain by going down on the farm. Although the bullpen is worrisome right now, expect leashes to be short, and options to be plentiful. The Twins surprising this season is going to involve some gutsy decisions.

Twins Unveil Season Plans A Week Early

Tony Gutierrez / Associated Press

The Minnesota Twins are set to play the Boston Red Sox in five of their last six spring training games. The first of those contests takes place tonight as the Twins travel down the road to Jet Blue Park. The biggest storyline of the day however is the lineup in which the Twins will take into the contest, exactly a week away from Opening Day.

Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have been busy making decisions lately. Aaron Hicks was sent down, Shane Robinson was added to the 40 man roster, and Blaine Boyer appears to have made the club. Today however, the lineup that the Twins new skipper will go with looks exactly like what we should be expecting on Opening Day.

Here is how the Twins are set to line up:

• Santana SS 
• Dozier 2B
• Mauer 1B
• Hunter RF 
• Vargas DH 
• Plouffe 3B 
• Arcia LF 
• Suzuki C 
• Schafer CF 

Kyle Gibson was initially slated to start the game for the Twins, but has been scratched due to an illness. In his place, new roster addition Boyer will get the start for the away team. Looking at the lineup tonight however, we can begin to dissect what the Twins will bring to the plate against the Tigers a week from now.

The top of the lineup appears as expected, but it does also provide reason for displeasure. If you remember a couple of weeks back, Molitor mentioned being open to batting Joe Mauer second. That lasted all of 24 hours and was immediately abandoned. Lacking power and being an on base machine, Molitor would have been best suited to stick to that plan. Brian Dozier hits far too many solo home runs, and keeping him in the two hole does nothing to fix that. Mauer makes sense as a leadoff man from an OBP (on base percentage) perspective, but if you want to overlook him for speed, he absolutely should hit second.

From there, the lineup takes a bit more sensible shape. Torii Hunter was billed as a mentor, but there's no doubt the man can still hit. He probably won't push 20 home runs in Target Field, but hitting for power and average is something he is still plenty capable of. Kennys Vargas rounds out the heart of the order, and that should dispel any silly talk about him not going north. He's got holes in his swing, and he's going to strike out, but that power is going to play just fine.

At the bottom half of the lineup, the Twins show some luxury. Trevor Plouffe took considerable strides forward on both sides of the ball in 2014. From a defensive perspective, he looked like a major league caliber third basemen, and it was more than enough to hold off Miguel Sano. His bat played well and could potentially flash even more power this season. Having Oswaldo Arcia hit 7th is indicative of the lineup strength as a whole. Tom Brunansky has pushed his ability in recent months, and he should be poised for a breakout 2015. I have him hitting over 30 home runs and think he leads the Twins in that category.

Both Kurt Suzuki and Jordan Schafer are essentially placeholders at the bottom. Suzuki experienced the best statistical season in recent memory last year, and is going to have a tough time replicating that. If Josmil Pinto rotates in and out with Suzuki in the eight hole, that power should be an asset that far down in the order. Schafer provides the speed of the prototypical second leadoff man. The Twins will have to hope he gets on base and hits to even a fraction of the amount he did a year ago (he likely won't if his career numbers have anything to say about it), but he's a serviceable nine hitter.

Minnesota largely outperformed offensively a year ago. Losing 90 games was more indicative of a poor pitching situation than anything. This time around, Minnesota has all but fixed the starting rotation and the offense looks primed to handle some regression. Expect this team to open some eyes, and this lineup to win plenty of ballgames.

Twins Reduce Clarity With Roster Cuts

This morning, first year manager Paul Molitor announced the next handful of roster cuts for the Minnesota Twins. As the team whittles down its roster to 25 players prior to Opening Day a week from Monday, the group of Fort Myers is going to get smaller. With 31 players now left in camp, Molitor has six more players he must send packing. The latest round however may have caused more confusion than clarity.

Amongst the roster moves this morning, the Minnesota Twins elected to send out position players Eddie Rosario and Aaron Hicks. Both outfielders will head to Triple-A Rochester to begin the 2015 season. Relief pitcher Mark Hamburger was also optioned as well as starter Trevor May. Both pitchers will head to the Red Wings as well. With the moves, it was also announced that Tommy Milone would open as the Twins fifth and final starter, with Mike Pelfrey transitioning to the bullpen.

No matter how you break it down, Saturday was by far the most integral day of roster shuffling the Twins have seen thus far. With the plethora of decisions made, the roster is taking shape. That being said, there's no doubt that a few of the moves made cause reason for confusion.

Starting with the outfield, namely centerfield, both Hicks and Rosario were sent packing. Thus far during the spring, we have heard that neither Hicks nor Rosario would stick with the club in a rotational capacity. They would either be named the starter, or would be sent packing. The curious part of the equation is that those sentiments seemed to be in unison with one another. Either Rosario or Hicks would start, as it never appeared likely that Jordan Schafer or Shane Robinson were viable candidates.

That brings us to where we are now. The Twins are heading into 2015 with some opportunity to outperform expectations. No one is banking on them being a playoff team, but if all things break right, they could squeak in. That being said, the upcoming season is about figuring out who you have to pair with the arrival of the talented youth on the way. Rosario still very much remains of that grouping, but the problem is Aaron Hicks.

Hicks, a former first round pick for the Twins, has struggled mightily at the major league level. After an impressive 2013 spring training, he was promoted to the starting role from Double-A, despite being more of a tools prospect than the refined category of a Byron Buxton. Last year, for the first time in his career, a demotion allowed him to successively progress through both the Double-A and Triple-A levels. He did so while hitting for average, getting on base, and playing solid centerfield defense. Today's move suggest the Twins aren't looking to substantiate that at the major league level and the big question is why? Figuring out what Hicks has to give you prior to turning Buxton and Rosario loose seems to be an integral thing to unlock. Doing so out of the gate with a strong end to the 2014 season made the most sense. Now it would appear the Twins have created more questions than answers.

In moving on from Hicks to start the season, Molitor is giving the centerfield job to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson. He has said he will "play matchups" but that it won't be a straight platoon situation. While that's great in theory, by and large, that is what's going to take place. The problem there is that a platoon is designed to allow a batter to exploit his talents against a certain type of pitcher.

Neither Robinson nor Schafer possess any real ability at the plate. Schafer owns a .229 career average, and was under the Mendoza line last season before coming over from the Braves. Sure he hit .285 for the Twins, but there's no way the production is sustainable. As an outfielder owning a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -8.4, he's not someone you ideally want starting in center either.

On the other side of the equation, Robinson fooled no one with a breakout season at the plate. He spent much of 2014 in Triple-A for the Cardinals. His career UZR of 7.8 is indicative of his billing as a defensive outfielder, but his career average suggests he's virtually a guaranteed out as well. At the end of the day, Molitor and the Twins appear to have looked past Aaron Hicks at the juncture that may result in them getting another opportunity to do so.

Looking at the mound, normalcy has likely been achieved. As Mike Palfrey heads to the pen with Milone rounding out the rotation, the Twins know how things will start. Palfrey voiced displeasure suggesting he was told he'd be given a chance to start, and that he didn't believe he'd be destined for the pen. This morning, he went as far as saying if there are clubs who believe in him as a starter, he would be open to moving on.

To be fair, the competition likely never included Palfrey from the get go. While he posted a sub 2.00 ERA this spring, 13.2 innings were never going to be enough to extrapolate any information that multiple years of bad starting pitching wouldn't overshadow. Trevor May pitched well, and despite his rough outing on Friday, he was always going to be in an uphill battle. Malone is a proven commodity and pitched well on a solid Oakland team. Minnesota should expect him to return to that form this season.

Despite being upset about his new role, Pelfrey actually could extend his career this way. With the ability to push the radar gun to around 97 in a less stamina related role, he could overpower hitters to a much larger extent. While Wade Davis is the golden example, if Palfrey can follow that path and become even close to that level, the Twins stand to gain a lot with this decision. Should Palfrey be focused on starting, the Twins could look to the Mets, Blue Jays, and maybe even the Red Sox as options. The problem is that a bad starting pitcher is probably going to net them less in a trade, even if that team needs an arm, than what they would find out by having him relieve first.

At the end of Saturday, we know a lot more about how the Twins will look when they head north. Some of it is easy to agree with (sorry Pelf, the pen is home now), and some doesn't make sense (Hicks now becomes a bigger question mark than he was before). As the Twins embark on their last week in Florida, look for the backup catcher role to be determined, and Eduardo Nunez to continue to be evaluated.

Let's hope we aren't having another frustrating discussion involving Kennys Vargas later this week. The Twins are at the mercy of injury when it comes to Josmil Pinto, and if they have to bring Chris Herrmann north because of it, so be it. That being said, lets shoot for a bit higher ceiling with the rest of the decisions alright brain trust?

For Twins, All Parties Win On The Mound

Update: Trevor May lasted just 4.2 innings today against the Pirates while giving up eight hits and four home runs. Both Tony Sanchez and Gregory Polanco tagged him for home runs, and extra base hits were sharp. May had a very strong spring training, but the writing is on the wall. Unfortunately May will get another chance after getting sent down to Triple-A.
 
As it stands, the Minnesota Twins find themselves at a critical juncture in the framework of spring training. Yesterday, Tommy Milone toes the rubber against the Boston Red Sox, and in doing so sets off the last go round for pitchers competing to win the final starting spot in the rotation. Following him, Trevor May will get his opportunity today against the Pirates. At this time, Mike Pelfrey isn’t slated to get another start. Breaking it all down though, does anyone really lose, or are the Twins just in a position to gain?

Looking at the above options, the Twins are in a markedly better spot than they have been in recent history. Having the opportunity to run a major league quality starter out five days in a row, without the inclusion of a Cole De Vries type, should only show up in the win column for Minnesota. Let’s operate under the belief that Milone ends up winning the spot however, and take a look at what the waterfall effect of that decision looks like.

Trevor May immediately becomes the most intriguing piece of the puzzle. As the youngest of the three, the Twins have the most to gain by keeping him a starter for the foreseeable future. While his returns last season weren’t good, he has looked sharp this spring, and still projects to be a quality starting piece at some point. If the Twins decide to put him in the bullpen out of the gate, it could spell the end of free agent Tim Stauffer’s short lived run with the club. The likeliest scenario would seem to be May returning to Triple-A Rochester until he is called upon again.

With Pelfrey being the least likely candidate to win the role from the get go, this scenario has been long in the works. Despite public comments by the team, Pelfrey has always seemed destined for the bullpen this season. Coming on to work in short bursts, the Wichita State product could be expected to push his velocity near the 97 mph range, and be a late game asset for the Twins. What Wade Davis did a season ago for the Kansas City Royals was truly remarkable, but if Pelfrey can follow along the same path, the returns may be promising as well.

Minnesota should have a very good idea of how this will all play out by the time Mag exits the game on Friday afternoon. Barring May being lights out, Milone didn't do anything to lose separation today. When the Twins head north, their rotation will be rounded out with quality options, and they have a handful of quantity waiting in the wings. For a team wanting to turn things around, that’s more than a good start.

Twins Cash Check Formerly Known As Francisco Liriano

Twins infielder Eduardo Escobar hits a single against Tampa Bay pitcher Brandon Gomes in the fifth inning. (Pioneer Press: John Autey)

In 2006, the Minnesota Twins sported a rookie pitcher that ended up bursting onto the scene and making an All Star appearance. With a devastating slider and blistering fastball, Francisco Liriano flew under the radar for a very small period of time. Unfortunately, the excitement wouldn't last, as injury would take away his 2007 and part of his 2008 season. Fast forward to 2012 and the Twins had watched what once was an undoubted ace, turn into an up and down starter that was fueled only by his own doubt. Going nowhere fast, the Twins decided to flip Liriano to the Chicago White Sox midseason, and that's where this all begins.

An afterthought prospect, Eduardo Escobar, was all the Twins could get in return for their starter who owned a 5.31 ERA at the time of his departure. Signed as an amateur free agent in 2006, Escobar broke into the big leagues with the White Sox in 2011. Playing in just nine games, it wasn't until 2012 that Escobar got some regular playing time at the big league level. Over his first two seasons as a Twin, Escobar played in just 80 games for the club. Even while possessing a seemingly low ceiling, the returns didn't warrant opportunity even on a team losing 90 games.

Last season however, things changed for Escobar and the Twins. Over the course of 133 games, Minnesota employed Escobar as a utility man. He played all over the field, logging time at five different positions not including designated hitter. The bulk of his run came at shortstop, but Escobar had become the Twins every day utility man. On top of being versatile in the field, Escobar mocked his career .255/.300/.365 line by slashing .275/.315/.406. His six home runs and 37 RBI were important additions from a player not necessarily synonymous with those statistics. Looking around a room of baseball experts, you'd be hard pressed to find someone willing to bet on the Venezuelan infielder continuing his run.

Now through 11 spring training games, Escobar appears poised to pick up right where he left off in 2015. He has hit two home runs, driven in 13 runs, and is slashing .333/.333/.528. Looking through the leaders in the Grapefruit League, only the Miami Marlins Michael Morse has plated more runners. Although the strikeout to walk totals aren't where the Twins would necessarily like them to be, Escobar has also looked to have an improved focus at the plate.

As the Twins head north, Escobar will once again be in his standard role. Despite competing for the starting shortstop position, Minnesota stands much more to gain by employing him all over the diamond. It would seem that gone are the days of Twins subbing in defensive only utility men. Escobar has the ability to both hit and field, and he has shown that he can be an asset to the club in both categories.

With spring training statistics being what they are, it's unfair to draw too many conclusions from the early performance. Having no history to go off of, 2015 is Escobar's chance to prove that the offensive prowess wasn't a fluke. No matter what though, the Twins are ready to cash the check they received for Liriano, and Eduardo Escobar is putting it together at the best possible time.

Twins Need Ervin Santana To Elevate In 2015

Twins pitcher Ervin Santana walks to the bull pen after warming up during the Minnesota Twins spring training at Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers on Sunday Mar. 1, 2015. (Pioneer Press: John Autey)

This offseason, the Twins decided to lay low for most of the free agency period. While teams like the Dodgers, White Sox, and Padres went out and revamped their rosters, the Twins went for a more modest approach. Bringing in only one position player, Torii Hunter, the Twins then turned their focus to the mound. Signing Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million contract, it immediately became apparent that fixing pitching was a priority. Now as 2015 rolls around, just how much can the Twins afford to lean on their new acquisition?

To be fair, it's virtually irrelevant to think about which starter profiles in which spot of the rotation. Outside of your staff ace, matchups are mixed throughout the season, and it's about going out on a daily basis and getting the job done. That being said, for the purpose of argument, let's try to dissect what level of production the Twins should get from their new pitcher. There's no doubt Phil Hughes is the staff ace, but after that things become foggier. Expectations from many are that Kyle Gibson will take big strides forward, and likely land himself into the number two starter role. That leaves Santana and 2014 free agent pickup Ricky Nolasco, to claim positions three and four.

A big league pitcher for 10 seasons now, Santana has spent all but one season in the American League. After spending the first eight seasons of his career with the Los Angeles Angels, he spent a season with the AL Central Kansas City Royals. Deciding to walk away from an interested Twins team a season ago, Santana signed another one year deal, this time with the Atlanta Braves. Now cashing in with the Twins, Minnesota will be looking to get the best of what the 32-year-old has left.

Looking at the last two seasons for Santana, a few numbers jump off the page. Going back to 2013 with the Royals, Santana threw to a career best 3.24 ERA. Unfortunately, that number was backed with a 3.93 FIP (fielding independent pitching). Conversely, in Atlanta last season, Santana owned a 3.95 ERA and a 3.39 FIP. If there's something the Twins should be concerned about, it's this set of data right here. Looking at the Royals numbers, they are indicative of a pitcher being bailed out by an outfield that ranked amongst the best in the majors. With Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Alex Gordon behind him, Santana was often helped out by his teammates. In the National League, he was able to overpower what is regarded as a weaker hitting league, despite being helped out less by an outfield that included only one plus fielder in Jason Heyward.

If we push those numbers forward to the Twins in 2015, Minnesota may have some cause for concern. The current outfield alignment appears to be Oswaldo Arcia in left, Aaron Hicks in center, and Torii Hunter in right. What that breaks down to is one of the toughest and largest ballparks in baseball having massive holes in both corner outfield spots. This season, Santana should see numbers reflective of a ratio much like the experience he had in Atlanta, except that the Twins play in the American League. Without the benefit of a lesser hitting league, and not facing the pitcher spot in the lineup, expecting Santana's FIP to rise is realistic as well. That change could cause an unfortunate rise in the ERA department as well.

Over the course of his career, Santana has only owned an FIP under 4.00 three times (two of them coming the last two seasons). In his time in Los Angeles, the Angels had players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Juan Rivera, and a perennial Gold Glove winning Torii Hunter behind him. Asking the Twins current outfield to hide an FIP above 4.00 in the same fashion seems somewhat far fetched.

Looking at Twins starters last season (Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, and Kevin Correia), Minnesota fielding allowed for an average of +0.80 FIP per pitcher. Raising ERA by nearly a whole run per nine is something that Santana could find detrimental. His career 4.17 ERA being elevated to 4.87 would put him somewhere near the realm of what Kevin Correia was to the Twins last season. To be fair, that's probably somewhat of a doomsday scenario, but the reasoning still stands.

Over the course of the last two seasons, both which should be considered in the good to respectable realm, Ervin Santana has been somewhat a by-product of his environment. If the Twins are going to get what they hope out of their most recent free-agent splash, they will need him to be significantly better than his surrounding parts. That remains something yet to be seen.