Showing posts with label Eduardo Escobar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eduardo Escobar. Show all posts

Monday, September 10, 2018

A Gift for all Twins Groups


Heading into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins will once again have the luxury of spending some money. With very little committed to the 2019 payroll, I’d imagine the front office will target something close to the 2018 Opening Day number when the dust settles. Having the luxury of a team composed of players still in arbitration years helps to provide financial flexibility. It’s worth wondering where it will be allocated this time around.

Last offseason, it was hard to suggest that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did anything short of knocking the ball out of the park. They were in on the most premiere free agent talent, and began the season with a strong influx of ability. As we saw this season, many of those acquisitions didn’t work out, and that’s why the year went as it did. While each player had their own shortcomings, one thing worth coming back to is the talk of one-year deals.

It has been brought up multiple times down the stretch that the Twins clubhouse was somewhat toxic this year. Having signed multiple guys on one-year deals, it’s worth wondering if there wasn’t more of a focus on a “me” game intended to land the next real paycheck. This winter, I’d imagine Minnesota would be more focused on landing guys believed to help the organization in the long term, and given a financial commitment to do so.

Although there’s plenty still up in the air as to how the 2019 Opening Day roster will look, here’s a free agent addition for each position group that could make a whole lot of sense:

Starting Pitcher- Patrick Corbin

To the casual observer, Dallas Keuchel is likely the big name when it comes to the 2019 free agent pitching crop.  He’s not the Cy Young winner he was a few years ago, and he’s settled into more of a number two type role. What Keuchel does present is a good deal of consistency and reliability. I’d imagine he’ll be paid handsomely, and think there’s probably a better option out there.

Corbin is a year younger than the Astros starter, and he has had an incredible 2018. His 3.01 ERA and 11.2 K/9 are more than worthy of salivating over. What’s holding the Diamondbacks starter back is the lack of a true track record. He was pretty mediocre in 2017, and downright poor the season before that. Over the course of his career though, strikeouts have been a thing he can generate, and limiting walks has been a pretty safe bet. Teams will need to push down his ask a bit by noting that lack of consistency, but he’s the guy I’d pay for.

The Twins have run out more than a handful of starters once again this season, and only Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson should be 2019 rotation locks. Fernando Romero should be a mainstay and take another step forward, while the emergence of an arm from the group of Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalves, Chase De Jong, and others would be a nice realization. Bringing in another top half hurler on a long-term deal makes sense for the Twins, and this could be their guy.

Other possibilities: Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi, Hyun-Jin Ryu

Relief Pitcher: Kelvin Herrera

In 2019, Minnesota shed a ton of talent out of the bullpen. Guys like Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke were brought in on one-year deals making them expendable. Ryan Pressly, one of the best relief arms in baseball, was capitalized on in the form of a nice prospect return. Regardless of where they’re at now, the reality is that the Twins will need to re-tool.

Addison Reed will be in the final year of his deal, and the hope would be that he could rebound from a disastrous 2018. Taylor Rogers and Trevor Hildenberger look the part of developed talent, and should be able to bolster the back end of ball games. From there though, it’s a significant amount of question marks. Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, and John Curtiss are getting to the point where feeling them out needs to produce results. Jake Reed and Nick Anderson should’ve already had a look, and Gabriel Moya must show more stuff than deception.

While signing relievers to long-term deals is never an ideal scenario, one or two coming in on two-year pacts makes some sense. In Herrera, the Twins would be getting a guy that throws hard, and knows the division. Kelvin has previous closer experience, and would be an immediate boost to the back end of the pen. There are a few other names that could be a fit, but this is the combination of stuff and results that jumps off the page for me.

Other possibilities: Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino

Starting Lineup: Eduardo Escobar

Trying to decipher how the Twins will line up to start 2019 is quite the question mark. There are plenty of bodies to put into positions, but the reality is that expectations are left unfulfilled all over the place. Miguel Sano needs a committed offseason, and Byron Buxton needs a bill of health. Does Joe Mauer return in a limited role, and what are the thoughts behind the plate?

From where we sit today, I think we can safely consider Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano to be starters. Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should be the second wave of near certainties, and that leaves just a handful of openings. What Minnesota does at first base remains to be seen, and the options aren’t ideal. Second base is open, and Nick Gordon doesn’t appear ready. Jason Castro should be back behind the plate with Mitch Garver spelling him, but it’s worth considering an upgrade.

As crazy as it sounds, the best fit from a constructive standpoint is superstar Manny Machado. He moves Sano to first, gets a mega deal from a team with money to spend, and becomes a cornerstone for a budding organization. It’s hard to live in that reality, so the next step down (and an obvious significant one) is the return of Eduardo Escobar. He can play second or third regularly, and his midline is one that still remains above league average.

The Twins front office probably has some relationship equity to regain here, but that’s not something that will be new to them this winter.

Other possibilities: Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, D.J. LeMahieu, Wilson Ramos

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Deadline Deals Do Wonders for Twins

The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 Major League Baseball season with postseason aspirations. Coming off of a Wild Card berth a year ago, it was fair to expect this club to challenge the Indians for the American League Central Division title. For a multitude of reasons, things didn't pan out as expected, and that left the club as sellers when it came to the trade deadline. As has often been the case, the front office positioned and executed the endeavor near flawlessly.

Having lots of money to spend this offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine bolstered the organization with talent. At the time, all of the acquisitions made a ton of sense, and looked nothing short of great on paper. We know that across the board plenty of players fell flat for Minnesota, and that allowed more shrewd decision making to come into play. Thanks to the short term commitment, and multiple one-year deals handed out, the Twins found themselves with assets able to be moved when their direction took a turn.

It's always tough to see a player like Eduardo Escobar leave the organization he broke out in, but the reality is that the Twins maximized his value. Zach Duke and Lance Lynn were set to depart at season's end for nothing, and getting a return helps to stretch their effectiveness for the club into the future. Now a handful of trades in, there's reason to like every one of them.

Eduardo Escobar to Arizona for SP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel, and OF Ernie De La Trinidad

It's Duran that highlights this package for the Twins. All three prospects are current in Single-A, and given the depth in the Diamondbacks system (or lack thereof), these are three relative lottery tickets. That said, Maciel was highly touted as an International signee and stockpiling some talent that Minnesota may have missed out on when each was available as an amateur is hardly a bad get. Escobar was set to be a free agent at season's end, and now he gets to go be a part of a pennant race. Minnesota could bring him back this offseason (and if they can do so at the right dollar figure, it'd be very appealing), but getting some tangible return for him while they could is a very good move.

Ryan Pressly to Houston for SP Jorge Alcala and OF Gilberto Celestino

Flipping Pressly stings a bit, as I've been vocal about how good of a pitcher he is for quite some time. In 2018, he truly emerged as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. With another year of team control, it's unfortunate he won't be around to help what should be a competitive Twins team in 2019. That said, the reality is that he's a reliever. With pen arms being fickle, it made sense to flip him for a healthy return at a time when Minnesota had plenty of suitors. Getting a prospect with triple digit velocity in return is a nice piece, and it opens the door for Minnesota to explore some internal options in hops of backfilling Ryan's role.

Zach Duke to Seattle for SP Chase De Jong and IF Ryan Costello

Here is the first move in which the Twins front office continues to make a one-year deal work for them. Duke was signed for just $2.15 million this offseason and was handed a one-year deal. Having just two months left on his contract and not in a position to provide Minnesota value, the two prospects continue to do so. Although neither piece is a blue chip talent, there's little reason to scoff at the ability to develop and potentially drive major league talent out of players that will be around long after Duke would have left the organization. The Mariners get a lefty killer in return, and Duke's time with the Twins was an effective one.

Lance Lynn to New York for 1B Tyler Austin and SP Luis Rijo

If you'd ask who among the Twins free agent acquisitions underperformed the most this season, it'd have to be a tossup between Lynn and Logan Morrison. Being able to send the former Cardinals hurler out for a respectable return only highlights the importance of a track record. After missing virtually all of spring training, Lynn has been better since being awful his first month or so. He was striking out batters (and walking them) at career high rates, but there's too much leash there to believe he's cooked. In going to the Yankees, Lynn represents another one-year deal that plays future dividends for the Twins. Austin is out of options, so it would make sense that Minnesota give him ample opportunity to stick down the stretch. Rijo is a lottery ticket that you'd never be wise to turn down.

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Steady Eddie is Launching and Laughing

The Minnesota Twins were going to be without Miguel Sano at some point during the 2018 Major League Baseball season. Whether from a possible suspension, complications due to a rod being inserted into his leg, or the normal wear and tear a body of that size can endure, the reality is he would miss time. When that point came, Eduardo Escobar was going to be the man that filled in. What wasn't expected is that the utility man would raise the bar. Then again, maybe we should have seen this coming all along.

Back in 2015, I wrote a piece entitled Twins Cash Check Formerly Known as Francisco Liriano. The point of that article was that Liriano had run his course within the organization and was flipped to the Chicago White Sox in a move that was largely forgettable. Escobar was a part of the return however, and he posted a 2.6 fWAR in 2014. As a part time player, he'd carved out a nice role for himself and the 2015 spring training continued to carry that momentum forward. Since that point, he's posted yearly fWAR totals of 1.9, -0.2, and 1.7. Outside of 2016 in which Minnesota went in the can as a whole, he's been incredible valuable.

Now having played in 29 of the teams first 32 games, Escobar finds himself with a 1.4 fWAR (best on the team) that projects to a 7.1 mark over the course of a full season. There's next to no chance that pace continues, but for the sake of context, Joe Mauer won the MVP in 2009 with a 7.6 fWAR season. Right now, Escobar is playing like nothing short of the Twins team MVP.

The great thing about what is currently taking place for the Fogo de Chao loving infielder, is that he's not doing anything too out of the ordinary. His .341 BABIP is far from inflated, he's swinging through roughly the same amount of pitches, and neither his contact or chase rates are out of whack. His 35 home run pace is probably unsustainable, but far from crazy after launching 20 a season ago. The jump from a 12.8% HR/FB rate to a 15.9% HR/FB is noticeable but doesn't scream crazy either. If we're looking for a change, things could potentially be explained by a more gradual one.

At the time of first tracking in 2015, Escobar posted a 13.4 degree average launch angle on his base hits. Year over year, he's improved that number to 14.1, 17.1, and now 18.5 this season. Getting lift is something we've seen the game embrace as it positively correlates with the quality of hits generated. Simply put, hitting the ball harder, further, and higher is only going to positively impact an individual's overall results. Eduardo's double, triple, and home run totals seem to agree with that notion as well.

I'm not going to boil this outburst from the Twins utility man down solely to a launch angle adaptation. I think there's plenty of factors at play, but it seems apparent that his growth as a hitter has definitely contributed to the current surge. What's arguably more important in this whole scenario, is just how valuable Escobar is to the Twins roster makeup as a whole.

The talk of the offseason was in regards to how the Twins will retain Brian Dozier going into the 2019 season. My inclination all along has been that they'd either flip him for something, or allow him to walk with a qualifying offer tied to his name. Given what the market showed this last offseason, there's a decent possibility that Brian could accept that offer and return to the Twins on a one-year deal. Regardless, the totality of his age, production, and value going forward seems somewhat replaceable for Minnesota. Trying to find another Eduardo Escobar could be a more daunting task.

Over the course of a full season, fWAR totals around 1.5-2.0 are relatively easy to come by. Escobar plays many positions, but is probably below average defensively at all of them. That being said, he's a very good teammate and provides a strong clubhouse presence. He'll be just 30 years old next season, and the familiarity of backing up all over for the Twins is something he's done since he was a 23 year old. Staring at an average annual value south of $8 million or so per year, that's a commodity that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may not be so keen on losing.

At the end of the day, Escobar is front and center regarding this Twins current turnaround. That's not to say someone else won't pick up the slack shortly, and it's a fool's errand to realistically expect 162 game averages off of this current level of production. Even at a mid-range value for Paul Molitor though, Eduardo Escobar is a player that winning teams need to have around and he's a great asset for Minnesota.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

A Bomb in the Middle Means Twins Must Rally

The Minnesota Twins had made it through 24 days of their spring training game schedule. Although Ervin Santana needed surgery, the timeline looked favorable and the organization had seen no other hiccups. Free agents were being amassed in droves, and the 2017 Wild Card team looked like it was eyeing an opportunity to close the gap in the AL Central. Then it happened, March 18th came.

If St. Patrick's Day is about luck, the day following saw Minnesota have next to none. Ervin Santana reportedly can not yet make a fist, let alone grip a baseball. That reality puts a May 1 return to the mound in serious jeopardy. The bigger bomb came in the early evening however, as starting shortstop Jorge Polanco was popped with an 80 game suspension after testing positive for PEDs.

When looking at the Twins 2018 outlook, it's unquestionably the loss of Polanco that impacts the club most. Despite suggesting he unknowingly ingested the banned substance Stanozolol (which coincidentally was the PED of choice for Santana back in 2015), the reality is he made a poor judgement in failing to fact check what a trainer in the Dominican may have handed him. Ideally there would've been a greater level of ownership, removing the "unknowingly" caveat, but he's decided to bypass an appeal and serve the suspension immediately. For the Twins and Paul Molitor, the question becomes where the club turns from here.

As I profiled just last week, Polanco was set to become the first shortstop since Pedro Florimon (13/14) to start back-to-back Opening Day's for Minnesota (and just the second since Cristian Guzman in 2004). Now, Molitor will likely turn the reigns over to Eduardo Escobar, who last owned the job during the 2016 season.

Escobar has played a solid utility role for the Minnesota Twins during his tenure following the swap that brought him over from the Chicago White Sox. The 1.6 fWAR a season ago was a nice rebound from the -0.6 fWAR he posted in 2016. The problem however, is that the negative number came with Escobar assuming the role of everyday shortstop.

Across 579 innings at short in 2016, Escobar was worth -7 DRS. Stretched out to a full season's worth of games (579 innings accounted for 66 starts), Escobar would be staring at a -17 DRS. Dating back to 2002 (where Fangraphs data begins), only 16 shortstops have posted a worse DRS over a full season. In fact, a -18 DRS was posted in 2012 by a 38 year old Derek Jeter, just to provide a visual for what that may look like. In short, it's not much of a surprise why the Twins played Escobar at short in just 16 games a year ago, even with the emergence of Polanco.

For Eduardo, his calling card with Minnesota has been and will continue to be his bat. His positional flexibility is relative, given that he can play many but is below average (-5 DRS in 600+ innings at 3B in 2017) at all of them. Coming off a career best .758 OPS with 21 homers, it's hard not to like the idea of his bat getting more reps. What both Molitor and the front office will have to evaluate is whether or not the negative cost in the field is outweighed by the boost his bat brings.

If not for Escobar, then Minnesota has three options currently. First would be secondary utility man, Ehire Adrianza. Profiled as a relative opposite to Escobar, Adrianza is slick with the glove and leaves something to be desired at the dish. Logging just over 200 innings at short for Minnesota last year, Adrianza was worth 1 DRS. His .707 OPS was a career best, and a massive jump from the .598 OPS he'd compiled across his first 145 career games. Having been used out of position some since joining Minnesota, Adrianza looked disinterested or lost at times while playing left field or even third base. Defensively, shortstop is his home, but his bat must prove worthy of consistent starts.

Brought in as Miguel Sano insurance, veteran Erick Aybar is now all but guaranteed a 40 man roster spot with Minnesota. Barring a Sano suspension, or injury to start the year, Aybar likely would've been looking for a new team. At 34 years old, Aybar is hardly a spring chicken, and he cuts the duo above somewhere down the middle. A .685 career OPS is reflective of a guy that's basically all average, with little boost from on-base or slugging skills. Unfortunately for him, 2015 is the last time his average was at .270 or above, and would need to be a relative baseline for acceptable production. With the glove, he's played at least 790 innings at short every season since 2009, but he's been no better than -3 DRS since 2012. Not the abomination Escobar is, calling him slick with the glove would be a stretch as well.

Rounding out the options for the Twins is a name that's not currently present. No, Nick Gordon isn't ready to fill in at the big league level on an every day basis yet (and there's valid concerns about him at SS anyways), and both Royce Lewis and Wander Javier are too far away. The "not currently present" designation would need to apply to a player outside of the organization. Veteran J.J. Hardy is currently a free agent still (though he's arguably a worse option than any of the internal trio), and the trade market has any number of fits. For Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to explore that path however, it'd likely need to be more of a stop gap player with upside, than some sort of drastic move that changes future projections.

At the end of the day, my hope would be that the Twins play it safe here. A lot of work has been done to increase the overall ability of the roster this season, and wavering too far on one side or the other could throw of a lineup or defense with an immense amount of talent. Escobar is a risk at a vital position, while Adrianza has all the makings of a rally killer. Start Erick Aybar, know what you've got, and inject both the utility men on a semi-regular basis. Escobar has thrived in that role before, and Adrianza was productive enough a year ago. It's not at all flashy, but if I'm Molitor, Aybar gives you the least opportunity to be exposed.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Dynamic Shift In Twins Lineup

It would be beyond silly to suggest that the Minnesota Twins lineup is better with Miguel Sano not in it. However, since the hulking third basemen last played on August 19, Minnesota has actually seen an increase in run production. Paul Molitor's club has risen to postseason play without one of their best players, and it's interesting to dive into how that happened.

On August 19, the Twins were averaging 4.67 runs per game (good enough for 17th in MLB). Fast forward to today, and Minnesota is 4th in baseball averaging 5.08 runs per game. In the 35 games since August 19, they've scored double-digit runs on 10 different occasions. In the month of September alone, despite being just two games over .500, they've posted a +41 run differential. In other words, the Twins have been ambushing opposing pitchers for over a month now.

When in the lineup, Miguel Sano generally he's batted 3rd or 4th. Since he's been out, that role has been given to a group consisting of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, and Eddie Rosario. While none of those players are the home run threat that Sano is, they've each shouldered the load as an integral run producing fixture for the Twins.

Sano's season will end with 111 games played. He has a .267/.365/.870 slash line. A three true outcomes player, he's walked, struck out, or homered in 60.6% of his plate appearances. While the home run numbers increased marginally from 2016, his strikeout rate has jumped off the page from his 80 game debut in 2015. If we're looking for something to point to as reason for the Twins additional run production, that could be it.

To date, Sano owns a 35.8% strikeout rate. The guys who've filled in for him own totals of 29.2% (Buxton), 14.6% (Polanco), 19.5% (Escobar), and 17.8% (Rosario). Even the highest mark of the group is more than a 5% decrease from where Sano was at, and it all points towards more balls being put in play. Despite not having the same power numbers, run production has been aided by contact rates that surpass Sano's.

Again, none of this is to suggest the Twins are better off without Sano in their lineup. While the Minnesota third basemen has been better this year than in 2016, trending more towards his 2015 debut would be ideal. In 80 games back in 2015, Sano drew 53 walks while striking out just 119 times. In 2017, he needed 111 games to draw 54 walks, but struck out 170 times. His contact rate is actually up (62.4%) from 2015 (60.9%), but the swinging strike rate has jumped to a career worst 18.1%.

Going into the postseason, it's probably not realistic to expect any sort of a contribution from the slugger. Had his leg injury healed to the point of him being able to take at bats, a pinch hit scenario could be interesting, and pose a problem for opposing pitchers. As things stand however, he'll be unavailable, and the Twins will continue to turn to a group of non-traditional middle-of-the-order hitters.

It shouldn't be overlooked that the fill-ins have flashed power of their own. Rosario may hit 30 homers, Escobar has 20, Buxton is at 16, and Polanco has added 12 of his own. Instead of being power, a free base, or nothing however, the group has made opposing pitchers attack the heart of the Twins lineup differently. Over the past month, it's worked better than anyone could've imagined, and Minnesota is going to have a postseason berth to show for it.

When Paul Molitor takes this group to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, he won't have his club's version of Miguel Sano in the lineup. That being said, if a New York pitcher thinks they're getting a break with the Minnesota 3-4-5 trio, they'll be sadly mistaken.

Monday, July 24, 2017

Twins Bench Provides Room For Growth

Whether looking at the 25 man roster as it sits currently, or how it will be constructed a year from now, the Minnesota Twins have opportunity through their bench. In winning more games against other big league clubs, the goal needs to be raising the water level of your weakest link. For Paul Molitor's club, there's some ample opportunity for growth.

On July 24, the Twins employ a bench of three players. Due to the extra (and frankly unnecessary) bullpen arm, the reserves rotate between a group of Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez, Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, and Jorge Polanco. While none of those players are a black hole, the group itself has plenty that can be worked on.

Looking at the starting roster, there's probable cause for each player to be a relative mainstay for the immediate future. Save for the shortstop and DH roles which are aided by the rotating bench, Minnesota virtually has their lineup claimed. In working towards a better overall talent level, a new bench construction could be a strong place to start.

Of the four aforementioned players, Polanco is the one that sticks out. He's a guy that hasn't owned an OPS south of .600 since he was 16 in the Dominican Summer League. His bat was his calling card for the majors, and while his defense was above-average to start the year, that's regressed to more expected results. Now with a .578 OPS and out of options, the Twins are forced to stash him and allow the 23 year old to work through his problems at the highest level. Ideally you'd like him to go back to Triple-A and iron things out, but his spot isn't necessarily an egregious bench usage.

As a fourth outfielder and designated hitter, Robbie Grossman drew rave reviews through the early part of the season. He's a patient hitter that forces a pitcher to throw strikes, and he simply gets on base. Over the past 33 games however, he owns just a .218/.321/.286 slash line. The .607 OPS is bolstered by no power, and he's contributed just eight extra base hits. Not being able to play an average level of outfield defense, there's plenty more to ask from a designated hitter. Grossman was a great story in 2016 owning an .828 OPS in 99 G, but the regression has set in and he's slipped well off that mark.

Maybe most valuable of the group is Eduardo Escobar. Experiencing somewhat of a breakout in 2015, Escobar owns a career best .768 OPS this season. He's not a great defender, but being average at three positions around the diamond makes him an asset. His nine homers are the second most in his career (12 in 2015), and he's become a much more significant on-base threat (as witnessed by the career best .328 OBP). If you're filling out a bench, Escobar is the ideal candidate to take a spot.

I had questions early on in 2017 as to whether or not Ehire Adrianza and Escobar could coexist. They offer virtually the same thing, with Adrianza being a whiz with the glove despite not hitting at all. Getting into 32 games for Minnesota, Adrianza has a career best .766 OPS. He doesn't generate any power, but he's been good for a timely single when needed. On a three man bench however, a backup catcher and Adrianza taking up two of the spots can be costly. Even in a four man rotation, having near identical players in Escobar and Adrianza seems to drop the ball a bit.

That takes us to the backup catcher in Chris Gimenez. A natural clubhouse leader, Gimenez has posted a .689 OPS on the year. It's his best mark since 2015, and second highest total of his career. While that's great for him, the offensive production in that role is virtually non-existent. Gimenez has been average at best behind the dish, and that may warrant Minnesota looking elsewhere.

Whether or not the Twins make any significant moves in 2017 or not, there's positions to be had on the big club. Mitch Garver seems an immediate boost over Gimenez giving the club plenty in terms of flexibility as well. There isn't a great argument to be made internally when looking at replacing Adrianza, but it stands to reason that a trio of middling infielders all rotating may be wasting a spot. Maybe Zack Granite can chip into Grossman's necessity, but that remains a slow play at best.

Going into 2018, there's room for Minnesota to add offensively. While the bulk of the lineup may be set, and for quite a while, outside help could grab a few extra wins. Having additional firepower in reserve, and knowing it's more than just a placeholder, puts a club in a very good spot. While the 2017 Twins have surprised, the core of a solid team is there, with areas of improvement to take things to the next level.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

What To Make Of The Twins Utility Scenario

Going into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, it stands to reason that the Minnesota Twins will more than likely employ a similar 25 man roster construction. That means there'd be places for 12 pitchers and 13 position players. Given in are in the starting lineup, the four vying to fill out the bench provide some questions for Paul Molitor and his club.

Two of those bench spots are immediately claimed by the backup catcher (see Mitch Garver, John Ryan Murphy, or Chris Gimenez) and a fourth outfielder (Robbie Grossman or Eddie Rosario). With just two openings left, the Twins need to incorporate a defensive focus, some sort of base running threat, and realistically cannot ignore offensive production completely. Utility men would be great fits for either of those spots, but unfortunately for Minnesota, they have three players in the mix.

Danny Santana probably comes to mind first. He burst onto the scene thanks in large part to a mirage of a rookie season. His BABIP created unrealistic watermarks, and his career has spiraled since. Although he's played the most positions of the possible options, he occupies no ground on the field while being a positive defensive asset. I took a deeper dive into what Santana brings to the table in this piece, but right now he has to be the odd man out. Although Minnesota obviously appreciates his flexibility, it stands to reason his level of asset is simply the lowest.

That brings us to Eduardo Escobar. From 2014-2015, Escobar played in 260 games for the Twins owning a .737 OPS at the dish. While his OBP (.312) left something to be desired, he showed a little pop with his 18 homers, and was of value offensively. In the field, Escobar spent the majority of his time at shortstop, and went from -6 DRS in 2014 to +2 DRS in 2015. He's never completely sold us on the part that he's an every day player, but as a utility man that profiles at short and can play two other infield spots, it looked to make sense.

Last season however, Escobar through a wrench into his future with what was a significant step backwards. His OPS plummeted to a paltry .618, and he totaled -7 DRS in 579 innings at short. No longer a defensive or offensive asset, Escobar had simply become a below replacement level player. On a new arbitration contract with the Twins this season though, it appears the club is banking on that being an outlier, and it's probably a decent bet.

Rounding out the trio is the recently acquired Ehire Adrianza. Coming over from the San Francisco Giants (and briefly, the Milwaukee Brewers), Adrianza is virtually all glove. Despite the small sample size, he's regarded in the Andrelton Simmons level of leather at shortstop, and that's something that the Twins simply don't have anywhere on their roster. Given the likelihood that Jorge Polanco struggles defensively, Adrianza would stand to look otherworldly in the field.

With the bat, Adrianza owns just a .605 career OPS and is coming off his best season in which he totaled a .679 OPS in 40 games with the Giants. He has just 17 extra base hits in 154 big league games, and gap power is something that will likely always elude him. Down at Triple-A though, Adrianza has compiled an .822 OPS in just over 100 games being virtually the same singles hitter. He has speed, although he doesn't typically steal a ton of bases, and that can probably play on both sides of the ball.

For Molitor and the Twins, the decision likely comes down to whether or not they can handle a glove only bench player. Escobar, despite his poor 2016, should be a lock, and that leaves it a competition between Santana and Adrianza. The former can stand at multiple positions but play none, while the latter plays infield spectacularly but can't hit a lick.

As noted above, with question marks already surrounding Polanco's ability to cope at short, Adrianza seems like an ideal fit. Minnesota was beaten badly around the ballyard a season ago in large part due to poor defense. Having such an asset ready and waiting off the bench seems to make a lot of sense. Expect this to be sorted out as Spring Training draws on down in Fort Myers.

Monday, December 12, 2016

Setting The 2017 Twins Lineup

Last winter, I tried my hand at projecting the upcoming lineup right around this same timeframe. With Paul Molitor back as manager of the Minnesota Twins for 2017, much of the same can be expected lineup wise, but he'll need to make some adjustments if he's going to overcome his own deficiencies from a season ago. There's no doubt that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine want to turn this thing around, but it'll be a process.

Right now, we know that the Twins have lost a couple of pieces from 2016, and there could be a few more changes along the way. I wouldn't expect them to make many waves in terms of offensive additions, so now seems as good of a time as any to set the lineup. With that out of the way, let's get into it.

1. Joe Mauer 1B

The unfortunate reality with Mauer is that his defense is Gold Glove caliber but the bat and offensive production is just a shell of what it once was. Recently I touched on the blueprint to get the best out of Mauer. Play him sparingly, split time with Park and Kennys Vargas, and even look at platooning him to remove some at bats against lefties. If Molitor can wrap his head around Mauer being what he is, rather than what he wants him to be, the Twins will be better for it. He's not going to bat .300, but hitting .280 using a similarly structured plan seems like a good bet. If you're not going to bat him leadoff, hitting him sixth or seventh makes a lot of sense.

2. Brian Dozier 2B

There's really no reason to be disappointed about being able to keep your best player. In not dealing Dozier, the Twins did just that this offseason. He's not going to hit 40 homers again in 2017, but settling in somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 season is a realistic ask. He should be a 3.0+ fWAR player, and will once again drive the Twins. He can allow Mauer's on base skills to add to his RBI total as well.

3. Max Kepler RF

At points during the 2016 campaign, it appeared that Max Kepler might run away with the Rookie of the Year award. In 31 games from the middle of July through the middle of August, Kepler posted a .912 OPS and cracked seven homers. His smooth swing and quick trigger through the zone should continue to allow him the ability to succeed at the plate. There may be less highs and lows for Kepler in 2017, but a year of consistency would be more than welcomed. He's got a realistic shot at 20 longballs this year and can be among the Twins best hitters.

4. Miguel Sano 3B

With the Twins non-tendering Trevor Plouffe, it's become time that Sano slots in as the full time third basemen. Realistically, he isn't a great fit there as the accuracy issues with his arm remain a real concern. Until things sort themselves out though, a move to full time DH or first base just doesn't appear in the cards. After a strong rookie year, Sano took steps backwards in 2016. The hope should be that his OPS rests somewhere in the mid .800 range and he can push towards 30 homers. Having played just 116 games a season ago, remaining in shape and healthy will be contributing factors towards Minnesota getting the most out of their young slugger.

5. Byungho Park DH

Brought over from the KBO as one of the best players that league has ever seen, Park's rookie year in the big leagues didn't go well. The Twins got just 62 games from Park and he was sent to Triple-A for the remainder of the year. Posting just 21 walks with 80 strikeouts, the swing and miss issues were definitely there for the Korean slugger. I believe that the wrist injury that eventually required surgery was a bigger deal than he let on, and if healthy, a big bounce back in 2017 is very plausible. Wipe the slate clean and give me at least 20 bombs in 130 games for the Twins from Park in the year ahead.

6. Byron Buxton CF

A year ago I found myself making excuses to try and get by Buxton's disappointing debut season. While he's still young, his 92 games in 2016 weren't great either. What Buxton did do though was bolster expectations for 2017 with a strong finish to the season. From August 5 through the end of the year, Buxton had a 30 game sample size in which he posted a .992 OPS while slugging an incredible .641. He's not going to hit nine home runs in a month all too often, but betting against baseball's former top prospect isn't something I want to do. Let him start in the middle, with a move to the top of the lineup being a quick possibility.

7. Jason Castro C

Signed to a three year deal this offseason by the Twins, Castro is being brought in first and foremost for his defensive acumen. Despite posting just a .684 OPS with the Astros last season, it was his best mark since his .835 OPS All Star season in 2013. If he can trend towards a .700 OPS for Minnesota as a defense first backstop, Molitor will have to be happy. Castro has totaled double-digit homers each year since 2012, and getting some pop from the catching position is something the Twins will welcome. His floor shouldn't be too low, and Castro's ceiling is probably the best the Twins have seen at catcher since Joe Mauer.

8. Eddie Rosario LF

If there was someone that did themselves no favors in 2016 it was Rosario. Not only did he take steps backwards defensively, but his approach at the plate looked awful far too often. A free swinger that chases out of the zone, Rosario shaved nearly 30 points off of his OPS and again posted an ugly K/BB (91/12) ratio. He needs to be more patient at the dish and come up with a better plan. In the field, Minnesota needs the guy that was worth 10 DRS in 2015, not the one that was worth zero last season. This spot also gets interesting if the Twins do in fact pull off a Brian Dozier trade. If Yasiel Puig is a part of the return, Rosario could find himself as the odd man out.

9. Jorge Polanco SS

With Brian Dozier remaining a member of the Twins for the 2017 big league season, Polanco is destined to stay at shortstop. It's not an ideal spot for him defensively, but the Twins frankly don't have another option. His bat should help to alleviate some of the defensive gaffes, and expecting him to tote the lumber is a good bet.

Last year, the Twins terrible season was a by-product of a team that couldn't pitch at all. The offense took far too long to get going out of the gates, but showed in multiple stretches that it's capable of competing. In 2017, the pitching probably isn't going to be significantly better, but the offense normalizing will likely spell the difference. Not a .500 team still, an offensive uptick should have the Twins winning somewhere north of 75 games.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Do Twins Create A Utility Duo?

At different points during the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the talking point regarding Danny Santana and Eduardo Escobar has came up. Both players present similar skillsets, and the likeliest scenario is a utility type position going forward. The question is though, do the Twins choose to roster both players a year from now, or is their only room for one Swiss Army Knife.

First, the less flexible of the two, Eduardo Escobar. While Escobar has made a home at shortstop, he's been passed up at different points this season by potentially more intriguing options. To start it was All Star Eduardo Nunez, and of recent it's been top prospect Jorge Polanco. When considering all possible options, Escobar can find his way into the lineup at third, short, and second base. Despite having played the outfield before, that time period has almost assuredly (and for good reason) come and gone.

In 2015, Escobar slashed .286/.350/.524 from August 1 through the remainder of the season. His .874 OPS was among the best for shortstops in the big leagues, and his eight long balls in that timeframe helped to give him a career best 12 on the season. In 2016, the results have been less, but the playing time has also been more sporadic. Across 70 games thus far, he's slashing .257/.283/.386 with just five home runs and 12 doubles. His .669 OPS is the lowest mark since 2013, his first full season with the Twins.

Defensively, Escobar has taken big steps backwards this season. After posting a 2 DRS and 2.6 UZR at SS in 627.1 innings last season, he owns a -7 DRS and a -4.3 UZR across 511.1 innings this season. He's logged just 10.0 combined innings at both third and second this season as well, meaning his positional flexibility is more in principle than reality.

At the end of the day, Escobar has taken a few steps backwards in more of a reserve role this season. He's been league average posting a 0.0 fWAR and has slipped each of the past two seasons (2.4 fWAR in 14, 1.5 fWAR in 15). Off of the bench though as a fill in player, it's hard to argue against him having done his job.

Then there's Danny Santana.

Santana is two years the junior to Escobar at 25. He's out of options, but looking to pass him through waivers hasn't really been a considered option at any point this season. His .261/.300/.357 line is a far cry from the .319/.353/.472 he posted in his rookie season, but with a BABIP in 2014 above .400, we knew that was never going to be sustainable.

You can definitely point to Santana's .657 OPS being less than ideal. After hitting seven homers in his first 101 MLB games, he's hit just two in his last 157. Across 207 at bats in 2016, Santana has only 14 extra base hits, and despite his prowess for speed, he's been caught stealing (9) nearly as often as he's stolen a base (12).

When finding Santana's greatest asset, there's little reason to look at anything but his ability to spell players all over the diamond. Over the course of the year, Paul Molitor has played Santana at eight different spots. Operating as the designated hitter on occasion, Santana has played every defensive position aside from first base and catcher.

The caveat to Santana's defensive flexibility, is that he's generally below average across the board. He was awful at short a season ago, he hasn't been a good centerfielder in over 300 innings this year (-7 DSR -2.9 UZR) and his time in both corner outfield spots has been brief at best. Essentially, he's a body that is able to fill a need as opposed to holding down a role.

Going into 2017, I'm not sure the Twins will have to make the decision as to whether or not they keep Eduardo Escobar or Danny Santana. There's a very real possibility that the 25 man roster has room for both players. Minnesota doesn't project to be significantly better a year from now, and filler players like both of the aforementioned names have a place in that type of situation.

If you're Santana or Escobar, looking at the roster construction probably provides some reason for optimism as well. While both seem destined to operate as bench fodder, there isn't another infielder or utility type on the 40 man roster not currently at the big league level. On top of that, there isn't a surefire fit for someone to overtake that role at Triple-A or Double-A in the near future either.

Should the Twins have to make a choice, I think I'd lean towards keeping Eduardo Escobar, I think the bat has significantly more play, and that the defense can turn around some. I'm of the belief that Santana's best days may be behind him, and with an approach that doesn't get on base nearly enough, couple with a defensive ability that breaks down to simply wearing a glove, his usefulness is more in theory than practice. A year from now, both guys could still very well be with the Twins, but if one has to go, I'm ok with it being Santana.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Escobar Has Become The Future

As the 2016 Major League Baseball season kicked off, there were plenty of different narratives for this version of the Minnesota Twins. Questions about the bullpen and youth were present, but there was one position that was absolutely cemented in. Paul Molitor had no doubts about who his shortstop was going to be this season, Eduardo Escobar had taken care of those questions.

Prior to the 2015 season, Escobar was locked into a competition with Danny Santana as to who would take over as the Twins starting shortstop. There was plenty of reason to believe in Santana's capabilities, and I was among that group. What Escobar did during the 2015 season however, was more than deserving enough on its own, and coupled with how horrid Santana was, it became apparent who the Twins best shortstop was.

What Escobar did was nothing short of eye-opening. From the All Star Break on, Eduardo slashed .269/.330/.486 while clobbering eight homer runs, contributing 19 doubles, and driving in 29 runs. On the year, Escobar slugged .445, which (had he qualified) would have ranked second among all major league shortstops not named Brandon Crawford. His 1.5 fWAR put him on par with the Royals Alcides Escobar, who played in 21 more games than the Twins shortstop. By all of his own measures, Eduardo Escobar had emerged.

Despite contributing a 2.4 fWAR in 2013, Escobar was pushed to a utility type role in favor of Santana out of the gate a season ago. Danny Santana turning in 16 errors and being worth -15 DRS while earning a -8.0 UZR was the perfect storm to open the door for Escobar. As the offensive production poured on, the Venezuelan slammed the door on any questions about who would play short for the Twins going forward.

For most of the 2015 season, Escobar's production was met with some level of hesitation. It had become a wait and see type scenario, in which the bottom could potentially fall out at any point. The resounding fact however, is that the time never came. Instead, Escobar produced on offense while making just four errors in 71 starts at shortstop. He was worth 2 DRS and posted a drastic improvement (2.6 UZR) over Santana in range factor. He had taken his opportunity and run with it.

At just 27 years old, and heading into his third full big league season, Escobar has become the Twins present and their immediate future. Minnesota does not have anything on the near horizon at shortstop (sorry Jorge Polanco, but 28 E in 102 G isn't going to work), and Eduardo has long passed the point of needing to look over his shoulder. Top prospect Nick Gordon will continue his rise through the system, and Wander Javier is not far behind him, but neither are legitimate threats to the Twins guy right now.

Having seen the emergence and production develop, the Twins can be thankful to have their first legitimate shortstop in quite some time. As Minnesota returns to relevancy, Eduardo Escobar will be a big part of the equation. It may be tough to watch Francisco Liriano continue to dominate in his career, but the move was necessary at the time, and is now paying dividends for the home team as well.

Friday, February 26, 2016

The Reality Of Escobar

It's become a point of contention in some circles that the Minnesota Twins may not have a level of certainty at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, that notion couldn't be further from the truth, at least for the time being. Going into 2016, there's no doubt Eduardo Escobar has earned the right to start every day, and the expectation should be that he'll succeed.

Way back when, I touched on the Twins continuing to benefit from the trade that sent Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox. Escobar was the return, and it relatively early on it appeared to be a good one. Over the course of the last season however, that return looked great.

Going into the 2015 season, Escobar was the utility man looked at as a secondary option for arguably the infield's most pivotal position. After Danny Santana looked the part of a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2014, he was going to be given every opportunity to start at short for first year manager Paul Molitor. You'd be hard pressed to find many that weren't ok with that decision. Santana looked prime for regression, but his new infield role was one he also seemed capable of taking over.

Then the season got underway.

It was always fair to assume that Santana was going to take a step back offensively. After owning a .405 BABIP in 2014, there was a less than zero chance he was going to put up the same kind of slash line (.319/.353/.472). What actually took place though was a level of regression that would be teetering on the brink of catastrophe.

Not only did Santana regress at the plate, he feel off completely. In 91 major league games during the 2015 season, Santana slashed a paltry .215/.241/.291. He took a grand total of six walks in over 260 at bats, and stuck out nearly 70 times. As bad as his offensive game was though, it wasn't even the real problem. At shortstop, Santana started 65 games and turned in 16 errors while being worth -15 DRS. By all statistical measures, Santana was one of the worst players in all of baseball at the position.

Enter Eduardo Escobar.

Following Santana's [prolonged] demotion, Escobar was given his opportunity. Fortunately for both Molitor and the Twins, he did everything he could with it. When the dust settled on 2015, Escobar owned a .262/.309/.445 slash line. He provided the Twins with 12 homers and doubled 31 times. His OPS was 4th best among shortstops, better than everyone not named Brandon Crawford, Tulo, or Bogaerts. In the final month of the season, Escobar only got more impressive slashing .280/.331/.486.

On the defensive side of the ball, Escobar provided an uptick as well. He ended up starting 71 games for the Twins a season ago, making just four errors. His 2 DRS and 2.6 UZR marks were some of the best posted by a Twins shortstop (and his complete game made him a significantly better fit than the defensive minded Pedro Florimon). Looking at his contributions as a whole, Escobar more than got the job done for Minnesota.

At points throughout 2015, it might have been fair to wonder whether or not the Twins would be in on free agent Ian Desmond (who still remains an unsigned FA after rejecting the Nationals qualifying offer). What became apparent as the months drew on however, is that the Twins had an internal option, and a relatively good one at that.

Despite having youth with promise at the shortstop position on the farm, both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier being representative of that, Escobar can make the role his for the time being. At just 27 years old, it appears Escobar would be a late-prime player, and someone the Twins can pencil in as they push towards playoff relevancy once again. Far more than simply a stopgap option, Escobar vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the big leagues most complete at a premium spot.

Never are the Twins going to see Escobar be a high on base guy, he simply doesn't walk enough. However, he makes a ton of contact, actually decreased his swing and miss tendencies a year ago, and doesn't chase all that often. His approach at the plate should be capable of repeating his 2015 performance, and a full season of that kind of production is only going to benefit the Twins.

Sure, Escobar isn't the flashy name that Troy Tulowtizki is, and he may never be another Xander Bogaerts, but asking the Twins to do better is telling them to replace someone that is already competing at a very high level. For the first time since [the thought of] J.J. Hardy, the Twins have the shortstop position figured out.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Twins Setting The Table

As February quickly comes to a close, the Twins are ready to get fully underway with spring training activities down in Fort Myers. Pitchers and catchers have reported, with most of the roster following suit. With Paul Molitor eyeing an improvement on a strong first season, he knows that his club has some areas to work on.

Minnesota found themselves in a good deal of beneficial situations a season ago. The club, more often than not, excelled in clutch or high leverage situations. Despite having a bullpen deficiency, the offensive prowess generally kept them in games. With a quality pitching staff and added pop in the lineup for 2016, the Twins feel as though they have put themselves in a position to succeed.

Now one of the questions that remains unanswered for the Twins, is just how the lineup will take shape. I've discussed how I would set the lineup for the bulk of the 2016 season previously, but the leadoff batter still remains a point of contention. There's little reason to believe it won't be Brian Dozier, and the hope is that at some point Byron Buxton would take over, but in the long run, what's actually best for Minnesota?

Realistically, there aren't many candidates, but let's take a look at the few Molitor has to sort through in 2016.

Brian Dozier .236/.307/.444

Dozier is going to be the Twins leadoff hitter on Opening Day. He's got the most experience, is the easiest fit, and gives Molitor some immediate stability. That doesn't necessarily mean he's the best fit long term however. His .307 OBP in 2015 was his worst mark since his rookie season, and he set a new single season strikeout record for the Twins (148).

While the power numbers went up, Dozier walked less, and missed more (he owned a career worst 9.0% swing strike rate). Although Dozier does sell out for pull power (pulling the ball over 60% of the time), he generated a career best 29.0% hard hit rate a season ago. Then there's the fact that Dozier was actually better leading off in 2015 (.246/.313/.499) than he was batting second (.225/.292/.366). My biggest distaste for Dozier batting first is the amount of wasted (solo) home runs, but I suppose it's something you can live with.

Byron Buxton .209/.250/.326

Ideally, Buxton is a prototypical leadoff hitter. He's fast and gets on base, but if you look at the line above, none of that was remotely true in his first big league season. Baseball's top prospect owned a 44/6 K/BB ratio, and had a swinging strike rate of nearly 14%. The good news however is that should be far from what Minnesota can come to expect from the elite Buxton.

Across his two full seasons of minor league ball (2013 & 2015), Buxton slashed .334/.424/.520 and .305/.367/.500 respectively. His career minor league .384 OBP is more than impressive, and he's generated a ton of contact at the plate during his professional career. Obviously, it has to translate at the big league level, but when it does, there's no doubt Buxton has to be the Twins table setter.

Eduardo Escobar .262/.309/.445

There's very little case to be made for suggesting Escobar as a leadoff man. Molitor likes speed, and while Escobar has some of it, he's far from elite in that category. He does play a leadoff type position at short, but that's really where things ends. Escobar just doesn't take walks, and his OBP has generally suffered because of it (just a .303 career OBP).

It's not necessarily an indictment of Escobar as a player, but there's really no good reason to suggest leading him off. Hopefully his power surge in 2015 was real, and he could continue to blossom as a hitter, it should just happen at the lower third of the order.

Joe Mauer .265/.338/.380

Arguably the oddest inclusion in this group, but one that shouldn't be ignored. In his career, Mauer has just two plate appearances (no at bats) batting first in the lineup. He doesn't possess the speed threat generally desired for the role, and Molitor has said plenty of times that Joe won't bat first. In fact, it appears almost certain he'll bat second for the Twins in 2016. However, leadoff may be the thing that benefits this version of Mauer most.

Despite declining averages the past two seasons, Mauer has posted .361 and .338 OBP respectively. He takes walks, and while he strikes out more, he also generates extra base hits (61 doubles over the past two seasons). As a table setter, Mauer getting on base ahead of power threats like Dozier, Byung Ho Park, and Miguel Sano makes a ton of sense. It's probably not even going to happen, but Mauer the leadoff man, or Mauer hitting somewhere around 6th could be the best thing for his career.

At the end of the day, the Twins are almost certain to employ Brian Dozier as their table setter. While it's somewhat of a square peg in a round hole, it's a situation that Byron Buxton can help to change. The quicker things click for him offensively, the faster the shuffle happens. When that day comes, Molitor will once again have to re-evaluate how he rounds out his starting nine.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

The Emergence Of Eddie

A year ago, the Minnesota Twins had a glaring hole in the middle of their infield. While their were some concerns as to what might happen behind the plate with Kurt Suzuki being a regression candidate, it was a shortstop that bigger answers were needed. Danny Santana was given the starting role out of spring training (a move I agreed with), and he hung onto it for far too long. Then Eduardo Escobar emerged.

Following just under 100 games of Santana accumulating errors and failing to make plays, Paul Molitor turned the role over to former utility man Eduardo Escobar. Forever tied to Francisco Liriano for the Twins, Escobar was more than ready for the main stage.

In 2014, Escobar played 98 games at shortstop before going into 2015 spring training as the underdog. A year ago, he ended up starting 71 games at short, and has erased any doubt that he belongs there in the year ahead. Behind a strong offensive output, Escobar gave the Twins production they had not been capable of since J.J. Hardy owned the position.

During his 2015 campaign, Escobar slashed .262/.309/.405 on the season. He followed up his 35 doubles in 2014 with 31 last year, and set a new career high with 12 homers (doubling his previous best). His 58 runs batted in and 28 walks were also new high water marks. There were a few hot stretches that bolstered the Venezuelan's overall numbers, but it was consistency that got him through the year.

With his glove, Escobar may have made even bigger strides. In over 700 innings during the 2014 campaign, Eduardo was worth -6 DRS (defensive runs saved). He improved that number to a positive 2 mark in over 600 innings during 2015. Escobar also set a new career best UZR improving from 21 in 2014 to 2.6 a season ago.

There's some reason to believe that things keep happening for the Twins shortstop as well. His .301 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was down more than 30 points from where it was a year ago. His 13 point average dip from last year took the brunt of that difference. It's somewhat of a curious change as his hard hit rate stayed relatively the same a season ago (28.5% as opposed to 29.2% in 2014). Arguably, the biggest deficiency Escobar saw in his contact was a near 5% dip in line drives. With that number falling, it's easy to see why the average followed suit.

I have some concern that Escobar sudden power jolt may not be consistent. He'd never hit more than six homers in a season previously, and his home run to fly ball ratio pushed 10 last season, again nearly doubling the 2014 mark. Having hit just over 38% of batted balls in the air, Escobar could face some regression in the upcoming season. It was a 4% jump over his 2014 mark, and a new career high.

At the end of the day though, Escobar took the main stage and ran away with the starting role. The Twins needed someone to step up and hold down the role for the immediate future. Despite Engelb Vielma being a defensive wizard, and Nick Gordon being the presumed future, along with the signing of Wander Javier, Minnesota needed an answer now. Escobar provided them that and should continue to do so in the years ahead.

The way in which Francisco Liriano left Minnesota was less than ideal, but the return he provided continues to pay dividends.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

In 2015, He's The Most Valuable Twin

While there's a few games left in the Minnesota Twins 2015 campaign, we are now at a point in which we can look back and dissect how we arrived here. To be clear, here is a point that hasn't been reached in four years. It's 81+ wins, a .500+ record, a winning team, and an expectation of positive seasons ahead. Although Paul Molitor has been at the helm, it's been these players that have paved the way.

To quantify a team MVP for the Twins season is a much more difficult task than would be imagined. Considering there has been two lone winning months, and a handful of first or second half type performers, and players that have step up at the most important times, it is far from cut and dry. In an effort to recognize those deemed worthy, a top five seems the most effective route to take. Don't worry though, number one will get his due.

5. Kevin Jepsen

Somewhat of an interesting inclusion no doubt, but knowing where the Twins are now, they would not be there without the deadline acquisition of the former Rays reliever. Since joining the Twins, Jepsen has pitched in 27 games, owns a 1.73 ERA and a 2.68 FIP. He's struck out 8.0 batters per nine innings, and he's saved nine games for the Twins.

Glen Perkins had an amazing first half for the Twins, but he's been non-existent down the stretch. Jepsen came over in hopes of bridging to Perkins, but has instead shouldered the entire load on his own. Taking on the closer role, it has been Jepsen that has helped to save the bullpen from the train wreck it had become.

4. Eduardo Escobar

Before the season began, it looked as though Danny Santana was the deserving recipient of the starting shortstop gig. Forget the fact that regression was going to set in, Escobar seemed best suited to a utility role. 122 games of production later, Escobar owns a .759 OPS, has launched a career high 12 home runs, and has compiled a 1.3 fWAR making any notions of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly.

With the Twins having more questions than answers at shortstop during points throughout 2015, Escobar has inserted himself into the heart of the discussion. He looks capable of holding down the gig going forward, and his late season surge has helped to keep the Twins on track in the midst of a Wild Card chase.

3. Miguel Sano

Given just under half a season to make a big league impact, Sano has done just that. In his time with the Twins, he has hit 17 home runs, the same amount of doubles, 51 runs batted in, batted .275, and compiled a .935 OPS. Forget the fact that he strikes out at an astronomical rate, his 45.6 hard hit rate is among the best in baseball, and he has tormented big league pitchers to the tune of a 2.1 fWAR earned solely at the plate.

Sano's full season numbers would likely have him in the league MVP discussion as much as they would have him running away with it for the Twins. Just 22 years old, he has entrenched himself as a cornerstone of the future, and 2015 was able to provide just a small glimpse of what is to come.

2. Trevor Plouffe

The Twins third basemen has followed up a breakout 2014 campaign with more of the same. After looking like a solid third base option a year ago, Plouffe has continued to do it on both sides of the game once again. His 22 homers are just two away from a career best, and his 84 runs batted in are a new career high. He also has set career bests in games played, runs, hits, and triples this season. On the defensive side, he's played as a league average fielder, and remains vastly improved over the shell of a hot corner defender that he was just a few years ago.

As I've continued to suggest all season, Plouffe should (and likely will) remain in the Twins plans going forward. An extension seems better served than a trade, and enjoying his late-blooming prime in a Twins uniform is something Paul Molitor could likely get used to.

1. Brian Dozier

In the first half of 2015, Brian Dozier looked every bit the frontrunner for the American League MVP. After his first All Star Game appearance, that narrative has changed, but his importance to the Twins has not. Pacing the club with a 3.8 fWAR, Dozier has produced across the board. The 28 year-old has set new career highs in hits, doubles, home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage, and OPS. In year one of the new deal, he's given Minnesota every bit of value out of his 4 year, $20 million extension.

No doubt, Dozier's second half struggles have once again been a disappointment to what otherwise was trending towards a remarkable season. However, in 2015, the power numbers have kept up, and while it's been the strikeouts that have spiked, the greater whole has been something Twins Territory has not seen for far too long. With the addition of youth coming, and Brian Dozier pacing the pack, the Twins are in a good place as they look towards the future.