Twins Hinting At A Busy Offseason

Recently, the Twins (and all of Major League Baseball) had to finalize their 40 man roster in regards to Rule 5 Draft protection. While the Rule 5 Draft isn't until the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, any eligible players left unprotected on the 40 man are now eligible to be taken by other clubs. With Minnesota having around six guys they could've added, the expectation was that more than a few would be chosen. After the dust settled though, we may have gotten our first teaser into what will be a busy offseason.

Prior to the deadline for 40 man additions, the Twins added three pitchers to their 40 man roster. Top starting prospect Stephen Gonsalves was joined by Zack Littell, and Lewis Thorpe. Littell was acquired from the Yankees when Minnesota ate Jaime Garcia's salary, and Thorpe has rebounded well from Tommy John surgery. Those three were essential locks, but the exclusion of three names may turn some heads. I'd argue the assumed expectation was that each of Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart, and Lewin Diaz would be added as well.

After the moves were made, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had four spots left to work with on the 40 man. Sitting at 36 of 40, each of the three aforementioned players could've been included, but there's most definitely a reason they were left off. First and foremost, it may be best to take a look at their individual contributions.

Reed was a 5th round pick in 2014, seen as a fast mover through the system, and a way to garner relief help at the major league level. Outside of a tough 2015, he's been very good for the Minnesota organization. Despite missing time to start 2017 following a spring training injury on the final day, he posted a 2.13 ERA across Double and Triple-A. While Reed has a relatively safe floor, the ceiling may have decreased some in recent years. As the strikeouts have sagged, the walks have risen. Had things broke differently in 2017, he probably would've been a no-brainer for a September call up.

The highest pick of the three, Kohl Stewart, may be the most intriguing. Taken 4th overall in the 2013 draft, the former Texas A&M quarterback recruit has never flashed top of the rotation stuff. Velocity is middle-of-the-road, while his game has been generating ground balls. He owns just a 5.9 career K/9 and posted a 6.1 K/9 to go with a 5.3 BB/9 mark at Double-A in 2017. The former regime showed patience through injuries and development stemming from a kid just beginning to play baseball full time. Now at 23, the flame out worries are genuine, and it seems the new regime has more questions than answers.

Rounding out the trio is Lewin Diaz. Diaz was signed out of the Dominican Republic and has long been a prospect darling as a power bat. After putting up a .928 OPS in the App League during 2016 as a 19 year old, 2017 became an important year for the lefty masher. Diaz posted just a .773 OPS at Single-A Cedar Rapids, but did hit for average (.292) and added 12 home runs. I'd imagine the thought process here is that if a major league team wants to gamble on bringing a 21 year-old yet to play above Single-A to the big leagues for a full season, that's a risk Minnesota is willing to let them take.

Looking at the three main omissions as a whole, Diaz seems to be the most understandable. I'd wager there's about a 35% chance he's lost in the Rule 5 Draft, and for a power hitting, bat first type, that's something you can probably replace. Both Reed and Stewart are different stories, and I'd put them at 100% and 90% gone respectively. Reed is big league ready right now, even if he's not yet a polished prospect. The walks are an issue, but there's strikeout stuff there even if it's only in the mid-90's. Stewart probably can't start on a regular basis in the big leagues, but being stashed in long relief for a pitching-needy team seems to be a smart bet.

With Falvey and Levine willing to lose two decent pitching commodities for an organization who could use more, the assumption is that more must be in play. Reed could've been added to the 40 man, and helped to fill out a Twins pen needing improvement. In being passed over, and with spots open, it's almost certain that Twins brass sees the need for proven big league help in the pen. Rather than taking fliers on guys that could accept a minor league or one-year deal, it stands to reason a big league contract could be offered to a true arm.

On the starting side, Stewart represents more quantity than quality in terms of starting depth. While the Twins need to beef up their rotation, right now the group of guys filling out the back end seems to be relatively plump. Adding top of the rotation pieces is where Minnesota needs to focus, and Stewart doesn't ever appear to profile as that. Again, open 40 man spots suggest that pitching is going to be a focus, and we should have clarity soon enough.

It'll be interesting to see if Minnesota can package either Reed or Stewart in any prospective trade talks. With the market for starting pitching being thin, and the expected loss of both players in the Rule 5 Draft, they could be moved for a return prior to that date. It's always tough for prospects of a former regime to find their footing amongst new bosses, but it seems the Twins levied some clarity to the group. Now, the organization will begin to show us what they intend to do with their four open roster spots, and that's plenty exciting.

The Next Hurlers For The Twins

Coming into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Twins roster was expected to be about youth and inexperience. Having welcomed Korean slugger Byung Ho Park into the fold, Minnesota then was expected to turn their attention to internal youth. With top prospects littering the ladnscape for quick call ups, it was the expected narrative to begin the year.

Now through the first month of the season, Paul Molitor has utilized Taylor Rogers, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, and will shortly call upon Alex Meyer. That leaves us at a point of wondering what else may be coming. Despite promoting many top prospects to the big league club, the Twins still have one of the best farm systems in the game. On the mound, Minnesota is working to turn a corner, but wondering who's next is where we are currently at.

There's some fun relief options that should see their major league debuts in 2016. Players such as J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, and even Jake Reed could all be on the horizon for Minnesota. For the purposes of this dissection however, the focus will remain on starters, and two key individuals to be clear.

First and foremost, Stephen Gonsalves has emerged as what should probably be considered the Twins next best starting pitcher prospect. He began the 2016 where he ended the 2015 season, with the Fort Myers Miracle. Somewhat similar to Jose Berrios before him, Gonsalves has made a habit of hoping levels due to strong performances mid season.

After posting a 2.61 ERA and a 6.2 K/9 at High-A Fort Myers a season ago, his 2016 has started off even better. Through his first four starts, Gonsalves owns a 1.44 ERA and has struck out 8.6 per nine while issuing just 2.2 free passes per nine. He's already given up two home runs in just 25.0 IP (after giving up just 4 in 134.1 IP in 2015) but that's really his only blemish.

Gonsalves is a 21 year old, and won't hit 22 until the middle of the summer. A 4th round pick out of high school in the 2013 draft, he's impressed at virtually every level he's appeared at. With the roster shuffle at the top, a promotion for Gonsalves should be right around the corner. I'd expect him to make the bulk of his starts this season at Double-A Chattanooga, and that could make him an option to reach the Twins in late 2017.

He's probably not going to be a huge strikeout guy at the big league level, but he'll be serviceable at worst, and has the ability to get quality hitters out. His consistency has been a strength of his, and he's a very level headed athlete as well. Gonsalves is no doubt a name to keep an eye on, and a guy who should continue to shoot up prospect ranking boards.

That brings us to number two, and a guy that I've had Jekyl and Hyde type feelings on, Kohl Stewart. Drafted 4th overall by the Twins in 2013, Stewart was expected to be a potential top of the rotation ace for the Twins. The development has taken longer than expected, but for a high school kid, it's not totally out of the ordinary.

After a great professional debut season in 2013, Stewart took a step backwards at Cedar Rapids in 2014, and fell off mightily in 2015. He's a guy that had just begun focusing on baseball full time, and injuries to his arm were a part of his early time with the Twins. What he's done to start out 2016 however has to put him back on the map.

Like Gonsalves, Stewart is starting this season at Fort Myers once again. He made 22 starts for the Miracle in 2015 with pretty mediocre results. This season however, he owns a 1.93 ERA across four starts while striking out 10.0 per nine and issuing just 2.3 free passes per nine. Across 23.1 innings pitched, it's hard to describe Stewart as anything but exceptional.

A Texas native, Stewart continues to have some maturing to do. He's notably not the greatest guy to deal with, but I know that's something the Twins have worked with him on. As he continues to make strides on the mound, the attitude adjustments and maturity will likely follow in kind.

I'm not sure that the Twins will move Stewart as aggressively as Gonsalves considering his struggles the past two seasons. He's also 21, but doesn't turn 22 until October. I want to see Stewart continue this performance for at least half of the year at Fort Myers, and if things go well, give him the promotion to Double-A Chattanooga. That would put Stewart on track to begin in Tennessee for 2017, and push for Triple-A Rochester.

Despite falling off almost all top 100 prospect lists this season, Stewart could do wonders for his stock by putting together a 2016 like he has started out. Regaining the ace status, the Twins could be using him to bolster their rotation sometime in 2018. For Stewart, it's been a tough road thus far, but 2016 has been a very encouraging start.

Minnesota has a handful of other guys that are interesting starting options down the road. 2015 1st round draft pick Tyler Jay is working as a starter for the first time in his career this season. Then there's players such as Felix Jorge and Randy Rosario. They would all seem to be a bit more along the lines of wishful thinking (at least as a starter Jay may be), but the club is far from depleted on the mound.

As the Twins continue to turn over into a new era fueled by blossoming youth, they'll need to continue to rely on internally developed pitching prospects to help pave the way. Thankfully, the next two top tier options seem plenty poised to carry the torch.

Twins Making Sense Of Law

Keith Law, ESPN's Baseball Insider, posted his much-anticipated prospect analysis this week. First he launched his 2016 organizational rankings, and then he followed up with his pre-2016 top 100. With the Twins once again having a loaded system, ranked third overall by law, they had seven prospects show up in the top 100. As with all rankings, there's discussion, and that's where Off The Baggy comes in.

Looking at the organization rankings, there's not much to complain about with the Twins positioning. Despite graduating Miguel Sano and a host of other prospects a season ago, Minnesota trailed only the Braves and Dodgers when it came to organizational rankings. The Twins seven top 100 prospects also was in a three-way tie for first (with the other aforementioned organizations) as the most by any team in baseball.

The prospects themselves are where things start to get interesting for Law. As with all players, some evaluators are going to see certain skills and detractors in a higher light. Law has provided some ammunition for discussion, while also being incredibly fair across the board.

He has Byron Buxton sitting second behind only the Dodger Corey Seager on his top 100 list. Seager plays shortstop and is regarded as a premier talent. While Buxton's plus-plus tools also put him in the premier category, it's hard to ignore the hiccup that was his MLB debut. No doubt Minnesota is hoping for better out of their former first round pick, and it should come in 2016.

Despite his debut, Law still sees plenty of promise in the Georgia native. He notes, "a star even if he hits .240, as that would probably come with 50 steals, 10-12 homers and big defensive contributions." That being the floor for Buxton puts the Twins in a very good place. Eduardo Escobar smacked 12 longballs a year ago, and Buxton's smooth swing should help him replicate at least that amount. He has a good feel for hitting at the plate, and very well could hit for average if things click.

Over the past two years, Law has been incredibly tough on Jose Berrios. If there's a prospect I've been opposite on, it's this one. Law doesn't like Berrios' arm action, and his short stature leads to flat fastballs. He notes that as Berrios reaches the big leagues, the balls leaving the park could turn into a problem.

Despite having kept the ball in the park on his way up the ladder, Berrios continue to draw Law's ire. He gave up 12 homers a year ago across Double and Triple-A. That number could inflate to the high teens in the big leagues, but I'd guess it still shouldn't be much of a concern. A season ago, Law noted Berrios being a third starter at best. Where things stand now, I'd hope he sees him as a two at worst, with ace potential. He has the makings of a very, very good option for Minnesota.

Following the top two guys, Max Kepler squeezed into the top 50 for Law as well. He put himself on the map big time a season ago, and Kepler looks like he could be a real star. He does so many things really well, and he doesn't do too much poorly. Kepler should have plenty of opportunity to make waves for the Twins as early as this year, and all of the waiting on him may finally come to fruition.

On the back side of the top 50, Law's first inclusion was somewhat curious to me. Putting Kohl Stewart at 53 seems to be incredibly high. The Texas native has had two seasons with declining strikeout rates and shoulder issues. He's been billed as a potential ace, but his low level struggles should be serious reason for pauses.

At some point, Stewart is going to have to step out from behind the narrative that he's still transitioning from a football player, and he's going to need to make his splash. doing so in 2016 at Double-A would be a very good start, and no doubt get him back on track. Depending on how the year ahead goes, he could be an option for the Twins in 2017, or he could fall even further off of my radar.

Rounding out the group is a trio of interesting names. Tyler Jay appears first and remains tough to project. As a left-handed reliever, he's probably close to big league ready. Minnesota no doubt drafted him in the first round to start however, and that transition is going to take more time.

I've talked plenty about Jorge Polanco, and he remains one of the most interesting prospects for me in the year ahead. I'd contend he could start on a handful of big league teams at second base right now. The Twins don't have room, and I'd struggle to move Trevor Plouffe to put Polanco and his questionable arm at the hot corner. He's either going to hit his way into the Twins plans, or maybe more likely, into some other organizations.

Last but not least, Nick Gordon makes the list. Of all the Twins prospects Law included, it's Gordon that probably gets chastised the most. No longer seen as an All-Star type by the ESPN Insider, Law suggest Gordon is "very likely to remain at shortstop and become an above-average defender there."

Noting the change in long term belief in regards to Gordon, I struggle to see what Law is making such a brash decision off of. His evaluation is sound, but a half of a season at Low-A Cedar Rapids that started slow shouldn't be worthy of a complete reversal. Gordon slashed roughly the same at Low-A as he did in Rookie Ball, and it was his slow start that no doubt caused the dip in batting average. At just 20 years old, it's probably best to hold out on dropping his season until we see what he can do at either Fort Myers or Chattanooga in the not so distant future.

As the dust settles, Minnesota once again proves to have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. The Twins have done a great job of drafting talent of late, and it has no doubt contributed to the renewed excitement around the ballclub. We should continue to see those efforts pay off in the years to come.

Resurgence Needed For Twins Prospects

In 2015, the Minnesota Twins saw the year of the position player. With Eddie Rosario leading the charge during spring training, and into the regular season, Paul Molitor watched as his 25 man roster was transformed with youth. One of baseball's best farm systems is far from depleted after a handful of graduations, but growth now needs to take place. For two former first round picks, the year ahead couldn't be any more important.

Enter Kohl Stewart and Travis Harrison.

Earlier this week, Jim Crikket highlighted both of these two players in his Prospects of Top Prospects piece. His assessment was that while both have a pedigree of performing, and have struggled through professional hiccups thus far, a resurgence is coming. While I'd like to find myself on that side of the fence, I'm not quite as sure as to what's next for both former first round picks.

The latter was the 50th overall pick by the Twins in the 2011 Major League Baseball draft. Hailing from Tustin High School in California, Harrison was drafted as a third basemen that could potentially shift to the outfield. To date in his professional career, he's stuck at a single level every season, and generally played against players as much as two years older than himself.

Through 433 minor league games, Harrison has compiled a slash line of .261/.366/.391. While not dreadful by any means, it's disappointing to note that the development hasn't followed the expected path. Player either infield or outfield on the corners, Harrison was expected to generate more pop with his bat. After a 15 home run season at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2013, he's followed that performance up by hitting just three and five long balls at Fort Myers and Chattanooga respectively.

Looking at him as a whole, Harrison does a handful of things well. He's taken more than 60 walks each of the past three seasons, and he has clubbed more than 20 doubles at each of his last three stops as well. What's working against the former high school draftee is that he hasn't developed into doing anything exceptionally. Playing positions with organizational depth, he's at a point where he could get lost behind better talent.

Should Minnesota continue the trajectory that has followed Harrison thus far, he should be playing his age 23 season at Triple-A Rochester. Once again significantly younger than much of the competition, he'll have to show he can handle himself. In the outfield in upstate New York, he'll have plenty of battery mates. The signings of Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Sweeney, and Carlos Quentin all need fall in somewhere. Those names also don't include the likely promotion of Double-A teammate Adam Brett Walker.

For Harrison, the year ahead is a critical one. Having now filled into his body, production at the next level will be about taking a significant step forward. Can he flash some exceptional ability in a few different categories that help him force his way into the Twins future plans. Not looking to get bench players that high in the draft, Minnesota is no doubt hoping it happens.

That brings us to the former player, and one whose situation is also much more dire. Kohl Stewart, the 4th overall pick out of St. Pius X High School in Texas during the 2013 Major League Baseball Draft, is at a much more significant crossroads. Having the pedigree of a top five pick, expectations for the pitcher were through the roof, and they haven't been close to being met.

Stewart's first 20 professional innings, spent in the Appalachian and Gulf Coast Leagues, were dominant as expected. He totaled just a 1.35 ERA and struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings. From there though, the story differs. Pitching in 87 innings at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2014, Stewart's arm went through it's first issues. There were injuries due to should fatigue, and his electrifying stuff produced just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. His 2.59 ERA was still sparkling, but the secondary numbers all left a significant amount to be desired.

Heading into the 2015 season, Stewart made tweaks in his workout routine in hopes of conditioning himself for professional baseball. A Texas A&M quarterback recruit, he had spent a significant amount of time focusing on football, and throwing one, in his not so distant past. His belief was that a new throwing program would help to elevate his game during the 2015 season, while also providing him a more clean bill of health.

Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Stewart played all of 2015 with High-A Fort Myers, throwing a career high 129.1 innings. His ERA remained solid at 3.20, but his peripherals once again took a step backwards. In the Florida State League, Kohl fanned just 4.9 batters per nine innings, while walking a career high 3.1 per nine. His 134 hits surrendered put him over a hit per inning, and his 1.384 WHIP was no longer reflective of the dominant prospect he was billed as.

Having peaked on prospect lists at number 28 overall by Baseball Prospectus, Stewart has dropped out of the top 100 all together heading into 2016. His declining strikeout rates along with arm concerns have gained more recognition than anyone would have hoped. There's no doubt the year ahead is a massive one for the Texas native.

Whether Stewart heads to Double-A Chattanooga out of spring training, or is handed a locker for a brief time in Fort Myers, he's going to need to distance himself from his previous two seasons worth of results. Once projected as a top of the rotation arm, Stewart is trending in the wrong direction. To right the ship, sparking his strikeout totals while staying healthy no doubt has to be the focus in the year ahead.

For the Twins, the farm system is still filled with a ton of depth talent that should contribute at the major league level. What Terry Ryan can't have however, is first round picks that end up not panning out. Both Harrison and Stewart are no doubt on board with wanting more from themselves, the year ahead is one in which we should see what happens next.

New Shift In Twins Rotation On The Horizon

Pitch-to-contact, sinkerballers, and soft-tossing lefties have become the types of definitions tied to Twins starting pitchers for most of recent memory. While Kyle Gibson, Mike Pelfrey, and Tommy Milone still fall into those categories, the horizon is suggesting a change is coming. It has started with Tyler Duffey, but a new wave is looking to take over.

Duffey is far from a strikeout machine, owning just a 7.4 K/9 across four minor league seasons. However, his eight strikeout performance against the Baltimore Orioles was the highest output for the Twins since July 5th when Ervin Santana set down that same amount. Duffey fanned seven Indians hitters in his second start, and owns a respectable 9.2 K/9 despite striking out just one batter in his MLB debut against the Blue Jays.

Although Tyler Duffey shouldn't be expected to lead the Twins in strikeouts any time in the near future, he is part of the turnaround that the rotation should eventually see, even if he's not a part of it.

Recently, I took a look at what the 2016 starting rotation might look like for the Twins. As of that writing, I didn't have Duffey in it. The righty has operated in relief previously, and I think that may be where his long term value lies for the Twins. However, those prospects that should eventually graduate into the rotation (only one of which I have there to start 2016), are of a different breed.

Jose Berrios leads the way when it comes to pitching prospects making their Twins rotation debut. He owns a 3.09 ERA on the season, and an impressive 9.3 K/9. At Triple-A Rochester, Berrios has struck out eight or more batters in six of his nine starts. As a whole, his slight stature doesn't seem to be a detriment when blowing fastballs by opposing hitters. What's better though, is that Berrios isn't alone.

There's still plenty of reason to hope that 2015 is a throwaway year for Alex Meyer. He's no longer a top prospect, and it's silly to assume he is a sure-fire top of the rotation guy. What he does do though, is strike people out. Despite the ugly 5.0 BB/9 mark, Meyer has racked up strikeouts at a pace of 9.4 K/9. If he can get his control issues honed in over the offseason and work back towards being a starter, the Twins would then have two major league ready mow-down types.

Looking through the farm, they aren't alone. Although further off, Stephen Gonsalves is absolutely someone to keep an eye on. His strikeout totals have dipped some at High-A Fort Myers (6.2 K/9 as opposed to 12.6 K/9 at Cedar Rapids), but at just 20 years old, he's still developing the ability to pitch and command the zone.

Much like Gonsalves, former first round pick Kohl Stewart still should be billed as the strikeout type. Stewart has struggled somewhat with the transition to pitching full time, but his 10.8 K/9 in his first pro season is just two years away. Also 20, Stewart's dip to 5.0 K/9 at High-A Fort Myers isn't as concerning as it would be further on down the line. Both players absolutely need to show some level of rebound, but the upside remains.

It's probably fair to argue that it's unlikely all four of the mentioned pitching prospects pan out at the big league level. What is fair to suggest though, is that when they do, the Twins standard will be pushed for the better because of it. Considering the benefit and importance that strikeouts play in any given start, the Twins turning over their rotation towards a more power approach would be a great thing.

It won't be long before Twins Territory is seeing Jose Berrios push the envelope, but if a couple of his organization mates can follow suit, the Twins stand to gain.