Twins In For An Overhaul

With just a couple of weeks left until Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins will be whittling down their players in camp and aligning the 40 man. What that means for a team with no spots left on the 40 man roster, is a handful of hard decisions lie ahead. The interesting bit for the new regime, is that it appears there are more moves than initially were to be expected.

Although the active 25 man roster can remain in flux through the first few weeks, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to make decisions on who they want to hang onto. With so many new faces coming into the picture, there's going to be some holdovers that find themselves out of luck. Shuffling the 40 man and sending guys to the minors, or looking for a different organization, is never an easy or fun task. From where I'm standing though, it seems there's plenty of work ahead.

First, let's take a look at the guys likely needing a spot:

Craig Breslow- RP

When the Twins signed Breslow this offseason, much was made about how he had reinvented his arm angle and pitching philosophy. Taking an analytical approach, Breslow broke down his mechanics and remade himself to suit his current ability. He's looked plenty capable this spring, and gives Minnesota a solid lefty presence in relief.
Chance he makes the club: 85%

Ryan Vogelsong- SP

Vogelsong hasn't been great this spring, and he's been largely mediocre since 2012. However, with Trevor May going down, I could definitely see the Twins going the easy or safe route with the 5th starter. Both Adalebrto Mejia and Jose Berrios still have options, and given the usage needed from a 5th starter, Vogelsong wouldn't have to take the ball incredibly often. Should Minnesota go this route, I'd look at it as settling, and really, an unnecessary 40 man move. However, reports are beginning to suggest it looks likely, and he'll need to be accommodated.
Chance he make the club: 80%

Chris Gimenez- C

Despite how good Mitch Gavrer has shown this spring, the reality is that there's a big jump from Double to Triple-A, and even further to the big leagues. Gimenez seems locked in now as the backup catcher, and his familiarity with both Falvey and Levine from previous organizations helps. He's a solid veteran presence, and has been on some really good ballclubs. He doesn't do anything incredibly well, but he's a serviceable backup to Jason Castro and allows the Twins time to wait on Garver to develop.
Chance he makes the club: 95%

ByungHo Park- DH

Before spring training started, Park was jettisoned from the 40 man. He went unclaimed on waivers and was brought into camp still competing for a DH job with Kennys Vargas. I have wondered if Vargas wasn't given this move as a vote of confidence that he was the lone 40 man DH, but he's done little with it. Park has looked solid at the plate this swing, both with the approach (6/4 K/BB) and the results. On top of that, he's the better fielding first basemen, and really gives the Twins a higher ceiling bat. I don't see Vargas as much more than a bench bat long term and think Park has earned his way back in.
Chance he makes the club: 60%

Drew Stubbs- OF

Stubbs inclusion is an interesting one, because it largely depends on how the Twins view Robbie Grossman. They are both solid OBP guys, but it's Stubbs who swings and misses (and has been ineffective in general) much more often. The one dynamic playing to Stubbs' strength is his ability to play all three outfield spots. Grossman is a corner guy only, and average at best. If the Twins want to have a more dynamic fourth outfielder, they could decide to go this way. However, teams shouldn't be beating down Stubbs' door, so Minnesota could likely hold him at Triple-A as well.
Chance he makes the club: 10%

With this construction, we have at least four guys needing 40 man spots, with a potential fifth. Right now the Twins find their 40 man at capacity, so what gives?

Trevor May- P

This is the easiest move for the Twins to make to clear a 40 man spot. May is done for the year after suffering a torn UCL. He'll likely need Tommy John surgery, and it's a certainty he's placed on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 100%

Buddy Boshers- RP

Including Boshers here isn't a slight to him, but more of a roster crunch. Assuming Breslow makes the club, the Twins are going to carry a max of one more lefty reliever. That leaves the group of Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke, and Boshers vying for that spot. The first won't be removed from the 40 man, and both Boshers and O'Rourke could find themselves out in the cold.
Removed from 40 man: 50%

Ryan O'Rourke- RP

First, see above. Then realize O'Rourke is a dominant LOOGY but is rarely used solely in that instance, and is 28. He's been passed through waivers before, and likely would go unclaimed again. Regardless, I think it's a coin flip as to what happens between him and Boshers, with the slight edge going to Buddy.
Removed from 40 man: 51%

Glen Perkins- RP

At this point, Perkins presents an interesting case. He's on the path to recovery, but his exact timetable for return remain a mystery. He needed his labrum literally reattached to the bone, and I doubt his overall effectiveness going forward. For the time being though, Minnesota could open up a 40 man spot by stashing him on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 25%

Michael Tonkin- RP

Out of options, and probably on the outside of the pen looking in, Tonkin could find himself looking for a new team. He was improperly used in 2015, and then did little with his opportunities a year ago. With Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in the fold, as well as newly signed Matt Belisle, there's maybe not enough room in the Twins relief corps to accommodate Tonkin. He could clear waivers, but I don't think the Twins view him as must keep material.
Removed from 40 man: 60%

Danny Santana- Util

This spring, Santana has been used all over the place, and he's played quite a bit. I'm starting to try and convince myself he's being used as the guy who gets breaks in for teammates. At this point, he's a utility man that can't play any position above average defensively, and his bat has never been anything close to the inflated BABIP number his rookie year lulled many into thinking. With Ehire Adrianza the superior fielder, and Eduardo Escobar a better all around player, Santana ends up being a roster casualty out of options.
Removed from 40 man: 90%

Robbie Grossman- OF

Of those included, Grossman is probably the least likely to be going anywhere. He's completely tied to Drew Stubbs and how that situation plays out. I'd view them as an interchangeable duo, and only one stays. If Minnesota keeps Grossman, they'll try to hold onto Stubbs on the farm. If it's Stubbs, Grossman will likely look to latch on elsewhere.
Removed from 40 man:10%

With that breakdown, we have seven candidates that could create room for four or five 40 man additions. The Twins are still a ways away from needing to have answers, but the guys on the bottom list are absolutely going to be considered to make way for those above them.

An Exciting Turn Of Events For Twins Pitching

Coming into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins had some deficiencies that they had hoped to clear up. While the bullpen went largely unaddressed, it was the internal options that were supposed to raise the bar. Although neither the starting or relief pitching has produced where the club would like, there's a really nice development that has taken place.

Now well through the first month of the season, the Twins have found a handful of throwers that have contributed in a unfamiliar way to the Twins of the past. For an organization that has become synonymous with pitching to contact, the strikeout has actually come into play.

As things stand today (on May 7), Paul Molitor's club has four guys that have gotten significant innings and have totaled more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings. A season ago, Minnesota had no player (outside of Alex Meyer's two relief appearances) total more than 10.0 K/9. In a league that has now glorified the strikeout, it's nice to see the Twins playing along.

The group of guys contributing to this stat are largely important as well. Leading the charge is none other than converted starting pitcher, Trevor May. Currently, May owns a 13.76 K/9 and has pushed batters to swing and miss over 15% of the time (a 5% jump for a season ago). While his walk rate has risen, he's kept things in check thus far to the tune of a 2.12 ERA and 2.37 FIP. To say May has been the gold standard in the bullpen would be putting it lightly.

Next on the list is the first starter of the group, and top pitching prospect, Jose Berrios. Having totaled 12.54 K/9, Berrios has generated swinging strikes 10% of the time. His command hasn't been what it needs to be yet, but just 21 years old and two starts into his big league career, it's far from a concern. For a guy who routinely struck out north of 10 batters per nine innings across his minor league stops, it's nice to see the number hanging strong at the big league level.

That brings us to arguably the Twins best offseason acquisition not named Byung Ho Park. Fernando Abad went his first 13 appearances before allowing his first run. Signed as a non-roster guy with the Twins thinking they saw something others didn't, Abad has gone back to his 2014 self and then some. Despite being a lefty, he gets batters out from both sides of the plate, and his dazzling 0.78 ERA is backed by a solid 1.78 FIP. His 10.22 K/9 is a career best, and nearly a two strikeout per nine jump over where he's previously been at. Give it to the Twins, Abad had plenty of reason to work out, but he's looked the part of an All Star.

Rounding out the inclusions is arguably one of the Twins best Rule 5 draft picks ever, Ryan Pressly. Despite faltering some of late, Pressly has picked up largely where he left off 2015 prior to injury. He's hurt himself of late by walking too many batters, but he's struck out 10.06 per 9 on the year. His 13.2% swinging strike rate is a 4% jump over a career best in 2015, and he's giving up contact just 73% of the time (another career best).

There's a few other guys who have topped 10.0 K/9 for the Twins this year without enough innings to give much credit to. Michael Tonkin finds himself on the flip side, registering 9.0 K/9 despite having pitched plenty for Minnesota. He was largely abused a season ago, and has slotted into being a nice piece for this pen. Regardless of the relatively low leverage situations he's been asked to handle, he's fared well and finds himself in the 10% swinging strike group as well.

As things stand currently, there's very few positives for the local nine, but the uptick in strikeouts (for not against) has been one of them. As Berrios takes over a larger role in the rotation, his numbers will become more prevalent. The group of relievers up right now don't include the power arms on the farm, and they should only push this narrative further.

If you're going to have to suffer through losing as the Twins have, you're going to need to dig a bit for the positives. Right now, this is one of them, and it's something we can all get excited about.

Twins Making A Habit Of Bad Roster Moves

Following his first and only start in a Major League Baseball uniform, the Twins couldn't even wait through the night to option prospect Alex Meyer back to Triple-A Rochester. Getting a chance with Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson on the shelf, the Twins had deemed they had seen enough after just 2.2 innings pitched from Meyer. Really though, it seems there's a much large issue at play here.

This morning on Twitter I was thinking back to the guys I can remember the Twins using in an extremely poor fashion. The list is probably longer than I was able to recall, but here's what I came up with:

2015 Michael Tonkin
2015 Kennys Vargas
2016 Max Kepler
2016 Jorge Polanco
2016 Alex Meyer

Plan for these guys has been horrible #MNTwins

— Ted (@tlschwerz) May 4, 2016

The reality of the situation is that every single one of the names mentioned has been done a disservice by either Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, or a collection of the two. I touched on odd roster moves when writing up Ryan a while back, but I think it's probably fair to look a little deeper.

I won't spend much time on Tonkin or Vargas as I've talked about the poor usage they had to endure previously. Tonkin was jerked back and forth between the big leagues and Triple-A in 2015. Despite being a good piece for Minnesota this season, it's something they should have previously been aware of. You can read that piece here.

Vargas is a guy that's never been someone I have regarded as in the higher level of prospects. It was nice that he made a showing at the 2014 Future's Game, but that may go down to be the highlight of his career. Regardless of my feelings that he may be a bench bat, Minnesota sent him packing at such a poor time, and it's essentially ruined him. Read more of my thoughts on that here.

That brings us to the guys that Ryan and Molitor have hurt this season. The list starts with Max Kepler. He was up with the Twins for roughly 20 games in 2016 to start the year, and in that time, drew just two starts. Kepler was employed almost solely as a defensive replacement, and was given just 14 plate appearances. For a guy that's regarded pretty highly across MLB in the prospect realm, his development was being stunted, while his ability at the highest level was not at all being understood.

Kepler could have been drawing regular, rotating starts among the Twins outfield. A guy that can play all three positions, he should have been in the lineup at least two times per week. Instead, he was sent back to Triple-A after having been able to show nothing. He's now hitting below the Mendoza Line at Rochester, and is trying to get things going after having the first bit of his season be rendered completely useless.

Of the group, Polanco has probably been the least damaged, despite being a victim previously. He has been called up and sent back now by the Twins twice in 2016. The latest time, April 26, saw him get a single at bat (on April 29) before being sent back to Triple-A. Minnesota has promoted Polanco multiple times over the past three seasons, and yet he's been given a whopping 29 at bats. He's going to be out of options at the end of 2016, and despite being touted to have a big league ready bat, Minnesota really hasn't allowed him an opportunity to showcase it.

I've contended for quite some time that Polanco's greatest asset to the Twins is in his trade value. He can't play short or third efficiently enough, and Minnesota has Brian Dozier at second for the immediate future. The way in which Polanco has been showcased isn't going to drive up his trade value, and it's becoming closer to the time that the Twins lose him for next to nothing.

Now for the most recent example, and maybe the most frustrating one, Alex Meyer. Meyer was acquired for Denard Span from the Washington Nationals prior to the 2013 season. Now 26 years old, Meyer has both started and relieved in the Twins system. Having been a part of the organization for multiple years, it's somewhat sad the club hasn't decided on which is the best route for him to succeed.

In being called up to the big leagues this time, Meyer was given a deck stacked against him, and then was immediately jettisoned to the farm in favor of a reliever with an ERA north of 10.00. Here's the timeline the Twins gave Meyer in 2016:

Alex Meyer timeline:

Apr 20- Recent AAA start
Apr 25- Promoted to MLB
Apr 29- Relief app
May 3- MLB start
May 3- Option to AAA#MNTwins

— Ted (@tlschwerz) May 4, 2016

Instead of scrapping the starting idea, and allowing him to see if he can stick in the pen for a team that's 8-19, Minnesota abandoned him altogether. Meyer goes back to Rochester where he'll likely start. Sure, he probably gets another crack at the big league level in 2016 in some fashion, but he's 26 and the organization still has no idea what the future holds for him.

At some point, the Twins need to understand that if you're going to build from within, you're going to be employing youth. With youth comes inexperience, and therefore you'll have some bumps in the road to work through. For a team that's 8-19, there's little reason to keep acting like you need the quick fix that is going to get you to the playoffs, it's not happening.

Looking to the future, this organization still has plenty of pieces to build a contended from within, and remain that way for a while. What I'm not sure they have is the right people at the top (Ryan and Molitor) to get them to that point.

The Curious Case Of Michael Tonkin

The 2015 Minnesota Twins returned to relevance for the first time since the 2010 Major League Baseball season. After a rocky first few games, a spring run put Paul Molitor's club in a great position down the stretch. Not being eliminated from playoff contention until the final weekend hampered Minnesota from exploring some less entrenched options, but no one was a by-product of that reality more than Michael Tonkin.

Last season, the Twins jumped down a rabbit hole that has now begun to come full circle. Employing the worst bullpen in the big leagues by multiple statistical measures, they left a lot of things unanswered. One of the biggest misses of those "things" was whether or not Michael Tonkin can be effective at the big league level.

A season ago, Tonkin was a 25 year old pitching at Triple-A Rochester. On the season, he posted a 1.10 ERA along with a 10.1 K/9 and walked just 1.1 batters per nine innings. After a 2.80 ERA in 2014 at Triple-A, it appeared pretty apparent that Tonkin was ready for a new challenge.

In "understanding" that, the Twins called upon him. In fact, they did so five different times. During the 2015 season, Tonkin was promoted to Minnesota on five different occasions (meaning he was demoted as well). Of those five promotions, two of them lasted just one game, while a third was played out over the course of four appearances. In total, Tonkin gave the Twins 23.1 IP to the tune of a 3.47 ERA and a 7.3 K/9. Those numbers were all compiled while the Twins learned little to nothing about what they had, and in turn, Tonkin about himself.

Sure, Minnesota was in the midst of a competitive season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, but does that really excuse things? Remember, the Twins owned one of the big leagues worst bullpens a season ago. A.J. Achter, Tim Stauffer, and Aaron Thompson were given a combined total of 60.2 IP despite none of them owning better than a 5.00 ERA. Brian Duensing, owner of a 4.25 ERA and a 4.4 K/9 threw 48.2 IP for the 2015 Twins, and Casey Fien pumped a 5.83 K/9 rate during his 63.1 IP. To summarize, Minnesota chose to give struggling and low ceiling options more run than instead to figure out what they may be sitting on.

That leads us to where we are now. Over the course of spring training, Tonkin did everything he could to not make the club. Despite being what seemed to be a roster lock thanks to being out of options, the 26 year old generated a 7.88 ERA across 8.0 IP. The small sample size makes numerical conclusions difficult, but he gave up earned runs in four of his seven appearances, and had as many games result in multi-hit appearances. A team looking to improve upon a bad bullpen wouldn't have carried Tonkin, but the Twins saw their hands tied as they still don't know what they have.

At the break of spring training, ESPN 1500's Derek Wetmore asked me if I believed Tonkin would be claimed on waivers, and if so, I would be ok with it. I answered that I thought there was better than a 50% chance he would be, and that it wouldn't necessarily bother me. From a roster standpoint, the Twins relief options on the farm are some of the best in all of baseball. There's reason to believe that the pen is overhauled and turned into an area of strength. From the notion of how Tonkin was handled however, it would be troubling.

In selecting Ricky Nolasco for the rotation, Minnesota spared Tonkin a roster spot. It absolutely should be Tyler Duffey pitching among the five, and Nolasco in the pen, but in handling things the way they did, the Twins once again put Tonkin in an odd spot. Now on the roster as a carryover, Tonkin is being asked to pitch in a long relief role.

Thus far in his career (60 MLB games) Tonkin has thrown more than 25 pitches just 10 times. Minnesota elected to stretch him out on the Saturday before Opening Day, he threw 53 pitches. In doing so, Tonkin was not available for the rain delayed (per Derek Wetmore and relayed by Curse Of Punto), and didn't make his debut in his new role.

What things have boiled down to with Michael Tonkin is a really unfortunate narrative. A guy that excelled at the highest level of the farm system the past two years was never given an opportunity to produce, is now being included out of necessity, and is being utilized in a less than favorable role. Sure, things could all work out wonderfully, but could there have been a more backwards way of going about it?

I definitely don't think so.

Options Don't Guarantee Twins Futures

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins had a couple of key areas the organization needed to focus on improving. After inking Korean slugger Byung Ho Park to a free agent contract, the bullpen was worked on through lower-risk, minor league offerings. Internal options seem plentiful to fill out the 25 man roster, and that means a group of players up against a wall will no doubt have to earn their spots.

Minnesota had a handful of guys that were out of minor league options as the 2015 season came to a close. Some of them were traded (Aaron Hicks, Chris Herrmann), and others were jettisoned onto greener pastures (Josmil Pinto). When the dust settled, there were four guys left that were worthy of keying in on. Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin, and Tommy Milone are all without option years, and fighting for a spot on the 2016 roster.

Despite the possibility of losing one of the aformentioned players for nothing in trying to pass them through waivers, it's hardly fair to guarantee a few of them a lock. Without putting a percentage anywhere, each of the four has a different set of circumstances when it comes to making the current Twins club.

Oswaldo Arcia

Although he has never been cut of the same cloth as Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano, Arcia did appear on top 100 prospect lists prior to the 2013 season. He swatted 20 homers for the Twins in 2014, and despite being a relative liability defensively, his bat can play. There's little room to argue that Arcia wasn't disastrous a season ago, but it certainly would be plausible that 2015 could simply be a blip on the radar.

Coming into spring training with the Opening Day outfield all but set going Eddie Rosario, Buxton, and Sano from left to right, it was the bat of Arcia that needed to play. Having shown a heightened work ethic and desire to push his game, the process has been encouraging. Arcia is maybe the most locked in player of this group to make the roster. As a back up outfielder, and bench bat, he gives the Twins something that teams around the big leagues would no doubt covet.

To return to his 2014 status, Arcia will have to continue to work on his plate discipline and approach. Chasing less and walking more will need to be two areas the Venezuelan focuses on. That said, there's too much talent and momentum working in his favor for him not to head north with Minnesota.

Danny Santana

Not quite the same situation as Arcia, but no less guaranteed to go north for the Twins, Santana must carve himself out playing time by being flexible. Forced back into the outfield after posting a hideous -15 DRS number in just over 570 innings as the starting shortstop, Santana's role will no transition to utility. Being able to play all three outfield spots, while spelling a tired infielder is where his value can come from.

Easily the most projectable regression candidate entering the 2015 season, the offense took steps backwards as well. After enjoying a .405 BABIP in his rookie year, Santana came crashing back to earth slashing a paltry .215/.241/.291 for the 2015 Twins. He's never going to walk much but he absolutely has to improve upon his chasing pitches (41.3% career outside of zone swings), as well as his swing and miss tendencies (11.6% career).

For all of his flaws, Santana could find himself slotting into the Eduardo Nunez role going forward. Playing a reserve role, while giving just enough offense to matter, and being capable of defensive flexibility, he becomes an asset on Paul Molitor's bench. He's going to go north with Minnesota, but the room for error is probably not at the same level as that of Arcia, and considering the ceilings, justifiably so.

Michael Tonkin

Of the group, it's Tonkin who's in the most interesting situation. A season ago, Minnesota's bullpen was far from good, but it wasn't very creative either. Up until the point in which Terry Ryan dealt for Kevin Jepsen, the lone lock down reliever in the second half was converted starter, Trevor May. The unfortunate part for Tonkin, is that he was out of the mix far more often than he should have been.

Called up on five different occasions during 2015 (and twice for a single game), Tonkin was never able to settle in at the big league level. He owned a 1.10 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9 at Triple-A Rochester. For the Twins though, he scattered 23.1 IP compiling a 3.47 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9. The numbers aren't horrible, but what the didn't allow for was consistency. Now out of options, a spring that has seen Tonkin give up runs in two out of his three appearances has led him to be in a less than ideal situation.

There's little reason to believe Tonkin wouldn't be claimed on waivers should Minnesota not bring him north. He also may not be the best option for the pen come the regular season however. Molitor could have had a much clearer picture as to what Tonkin could provide with a better usage in 2015, or by Ryan not offering Fien arbitration for the season ahead. There's a really solid chance Minnesota puts Tonkin on the roster not wanting to lose him from the get go. There's also a decent possibility that he's not the most qualified arm for that role. If there's an option-less player that misses the 25 man, Tonkin could be it.

Tommy Milone

When rounding out the rotation, the 5th and final spot is Milone's to lose. Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson are all inked in, with Tyler Duffey's role being written in pencil for now. If Ricky Nolasco is going to unseat someone, Milone would seem to be it. Fortunately for both the prospects of the Twins staff, and Milone himself, it doesn't appear likely to happen.

Forget about Nolasco's contract, it's a sunk cost and compounding the issue by having a pitcher not a part of their best five start, doesn't seem like a worthy cause. Milone was the return of arguably one of the best trades Terry Ryan has ever made, and he's pitched more than capably of late. His 3.92 ERA in 2015 was sufficient, and he earned his recall by being unhittable at Triple-A Rochester following a demotion. Having turned in two solid spring starts thus far (5.0 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 6 K), he's positioned himself well.

Not having the velocity fastball of Nolasco, Milone doesn't project to be a realistic bullpen option. His stuff isn't going to play up significantly in relief, and that as well works in his favor. Whether Nolasco likes it or not, his role for the Twins appears to be in relief, and Milone continuing to throw well is only making the decision more solid.

Being out of options is, as has always been the case, far from a guarantee to make the 25 man roster. For the Twins group of four looking to add something to the big league club, each seems to have positioned themselves relatively. By product of circumstance, only Tonkin seems remotely possible to be skipped over, and even that doesn't seem all that likely. The good thing for Minnesota, is that each of the four players presents some realistic reason to believe they can contribute at the highest level in the year ahead.

What May The Best Option Be?

The Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues a season ago. While their starting pitching wasn't anything to write home about, they had plenty of arms to kick off games. With Trevor May entering 2016 with a certain level of uncertainty to his role, it becomes a question of how he best helps the Twins.

Thus far during the offseason, Paul Molitor has noted that he's going into Spring Training under the impression he'll use May as a reliever. Although May was brought in as a starter, he flashed the ability to be a very good, if not great bullpen option in 2015. He was a capable starter, and one of the Twins best at times, but again it's the bullpen that needs help.

There is only two ways in which Trevor May's situation can play out. Either he works as a starter for the Twins or he doesn't. At this point, it's probably worth considering what each of those scenarios look like.

Laying the groundwork, here is how the Twins rotation will almost certainly start:

• Ervin Santana
• Phil Hughes
• Kyle Gibson

Those three are all but guaranteed, even if Santana and Hughes flip. From there, the 4th or 5th spot will likely be given to Tyler Duffey. Now how does that make things look with May in the pen? Something like this:

• Ervin Santana
• Phil Hughes
• Kyle Gibson
• Tyler Duffey
• Tommy Milone

Considering the Twins will go with seven relievers to start the season, we can begin to assumptively fill out the bullpen as well. Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen are locks. Casey Fien was tendered a new contract as can be considered in. Ricky Nolasco needs a spot, and that probably comes in relief. Minnesota has to go with Alex Meyer at some point, and him breaking out this year is a very real possibility. Claiming the lefty relief role vacated by Brian Duensing will be someone along the lines of Logan Darnell, Fernando Abad, or another free agent type. That leaves one opening, given to Trevor May.

If May starts in the rotation, he would likely bump Milone from the starting five. Milone's stuff doesn't play in the pen as he is a soft tossing lefty. With May in the rotation, the seventh and final relief role likely goes to someone along the lines of a Michael Tonkin or Ryan Pressly type.

So, that presents us with our crossroads. Let's take a closer look at the center of both scenarios. Here's Option A:

Tommy Milone starts, Trevor May relieves

Milone owns a career 3.97 ERA as a starter. His 6.5 K/9 is pedestrian, but his 2.2 career BB/9 helps him to limit damage. In his first full season with the Twins, Milone owned a 3.92 ERA and a 4.30 FIP. He had a dominating stint at Triple-A, and then finished the year with the big league club owning mediocre, but respectable, numbers for a number five starter. Operating at the back end of the rotation would also make Milone the likely candidate to be bumped when phenom Jose Berrios is given his chance.

In a relief role during the 2015 season, Trevor May worked 34.1 IP, most of which were high-leverage. He owned a 3.15 ERA and saw an increase in his velocity, now registering in the upper 90s. May struck out 10.3/9 as a reliever and issued just 2.1 BB/9 out of the pen. From July 25 through the end of the season (a span of 28 appearances), May owned a 2.63 ERA allowing opposing hitters to slash just .243/.295/.408 off of him. Giving the ball to Kevin Jepsen, May was what can be categorized as a shutdown reliever.

Here is Option B:

Trevor May was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Ben Revere. While it was only Vance Worley that was major league ready, it was May that was seen as the premier starting pitcher in the return. May's debut in 2014 didn't go as planned, and saw the Washington native make nine starts with an ERA over 7.00. 2015 was a different story, as May made significant improvement. In 15 starts, he owned a 4.37 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .286/.325/.429 off of him while striking out 8.0 per nine. His best stretch came from May 16 through June 20, seeing May turn in a 3.09 ERA across seven starts. Far from top of the rotation stuff, it was a step in the right direction.

Filling out the bullpen in this scenario is someone along the lines of Michael Tonkin or Ryan Pressly. Tonkin was moved between levels nine times in 2015. In the big leagues, he owned a 3.47 ERA across 23.1 IP. It wasn't quite the 2.80 and 1.10 ERA he flashed at Triple-A in 2014 and 15, but it wasn't bad either. His 7.3 K/9 was serviceable, especially for a pen that didn't strike many out. Pressly, the Twins former Rule 5 pick, owned a 2.93 ERA across 27.2 IP before hitting the DL for the remained of the year. His 7.2 K/9 was a career his by nearly two strikeouts per inning, but his 3.9 BB/9 was a career worst. Coming back from an arm injury, he should be 100% but will have to establish himself once again.

For Minnesota, the goal is to no doubt field the most competitive roster. In doing so, Paul Molitor would be trying to raise the floor for the worst case scenario in each of his positional groupings. While helping to raise the strength of the bullpen, he would also need to make sure the rotation is in a good spot to compete.

While Trevor May is a better starting pitcher than Tommy Milone, and no doubt has more upside, his inclusion in the bullpen also makes the Twins better as a whole. The cost of removing May from the pen would arguably be felt more than that of having Milone start, and eventually be replaced by Berrios.

For now, it's fair to say getting behind moving a young (or relatively, May is 26) starter to the bullpen hurts. In the end though, it could definitely be the scenario that helps to push the ability of the Twins roster as a whole to the best place.

Making The Twins Bullpen Great

 

A year ago, the state of the Minnesota Twins bullpen was far from a good place. Going into the season, the front office made sure to let media members know they were off base, and that the relief pitching was in a good place. As the season wore on, that ended up being quite off base, and remains a point of contention heading into 2016. Looking at the Twins current 40 man roster, what does the Twins best bullpen look like?

There's a couple of caveats here that need to be dealt with before diving in. Although the 40 man roster currently sits at full capacity, the Twins would have some serious questions to answer if moves were not still made. There's a couple of different players that could be removed, and there's definitely free agents that could help this team out.

In looking at the bullpen specifically, there are also a couple of contributors both within and outside of the organization that make sense. Guys like Jake Reed and Nick Burdi would make the Twins pen better when they arrive, but shouldn't be counted on from the get go. I'm not sold on the idea that Neal Cotts improves the Twins relief corps, but while still on the market, there's some mutual interest in making a return to Minnesota.

Focusing in on what's immediately available to Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan, the configuration should look something like this:

Ryan Pressly- RHP

The former Rule 5 pick has been a solid contributor for the Twins, unfortunately in 2015, he spent a majority of the year on the disabled list. When he did pitch however, he gave the Twins 27.2 innings and owned a 7.2 K/9 mark. Pressly posted a career best 2.84 FIP and tallied just a 2.93 ERA. His 3.9 BB/9 rate was the worst of his career, and the hope would be he could get back towards 2014's 2.5 BB/9 number. Pressly is far from a sure thing, and he's probably a placeholder for a guy like Reed or Burdi, but you could do a lot worse out of the gate.

Logan Darnell- LHP

The first lefty of the group, Darnell slides into what was once a role Brian Duensing held onto. More than just a lefty specialist, Darnell has the ability to eat innings and can do so at a competitive level. He ended 2015 working as a starter for Triple-Rochester. In his five starts, he posted a 0.83 ERA .185/.228/.210 slash line against, and a 7.83 K/9. He didn't appear for the Twins due to sickness following his September call, but expect him to get a crack out of Spring Training.

Michael Tonkin- RHP

Much like Darnell, Tonkin has not been given much extended run at the big league level despite minor league success. He was up and down too often a season ago, and never got settled at either level. For the Twins, he threw 23.1 innings and compiled a 3.47 ERA with a 7.3 K/9. At Rochester, Tonkin was virtually unhittable owning a 1.10 ERA, 10.1 K/9. and a 1.1 BB/9. Given an extended stay for the Twins, he could become a trustworthy back-end option with the ability to strike out big league sluggers.

Alex Meyer- RHP

After expecting to be a part of the 2015 season, Meyer had his struggles last year. Despite making his major league debut, it was short-lived. As the calendar turns, so does the year that was, and Meyer is poised for a breakout. Now almost certainly destined for the bullpen, Meyer showed some impressive stuff to close out 2015. In his final 10 games, Meyer threw 22.2 innings and owned a 0.79 ERA. Opposing batters slashed just .192/.293/.205 off of him while he owned a 22/10 K/BB ratio. Meyer's controlled improved at the end of the year, and the Twins pen would welcome his career 10.3 K/9 ratio. In the season ahead, it could be Meyer that ends up being the Twins most important rookie.

Trevor May- RHP

Despite what the Twins have said, and likely what May would prefer, starting may not be in the cards out of the gate in 2016. The problem isn't that May is a bad starter (he's actually very good), but instead that the Twins have so much depth there. In pitching May out of the pen, the 5th spot in the rotation can be given to the likes of Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, or even Jose Berrios. As a reliever in 2015, May pitched 34.1 innings owning a 3.15 ERA. His 10.3 K/9 was the best amongst Twins relievers, and his velocity rose as well. May has the makings of a very good pitcher wherever the Twins utilize him, but it would be in their best interest to make that in relief.

Kevin Jepsen- RHP

Tendered a new contract for the upcoming season, Jepsen is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and is set to become a free agent in 2017. After being acquired from the Rays last season, Jepsen was a vital part of the Twins down the stretch. He owned a 1.61 ERA across 28.0 IP. His 8.0 K/9 was plenty respectable, and his 0.893 WHIP allowed him to fill into the closer role admirably. Jepsen should again be counted on to be a key cog in the late innings, and could end up being one of the league's best setup men in the year ahead.

Glen Perkins- LHP

Joining Darnell as the only other lefty in the Twins pen, Perkins had a tale of two seasons in 2015. Prior to making the All Star Game, Perkins collected a Major League leading 28 saves while owning a 1.21 ERA in 37.1 innings of work. He compiled an 8.7 K/9 and .188/.217/.246 slash line against in that period. Then the wheels fell off. Through the rest of the year, Perkins owned a 7.32 ERA, allowed opposing hitters to slash .360/.394/.674 off of him, and had just one more save (4) than blown saves (3). He should be back to full health to start 2016, but he needs to put together a complete season again (something he hasn't done each of the last two years).

Looking at the grouping as a whole, the Twins have a very solid mix of options. Turning to youth with upside as well as rolling out proven veterans, this would seem to be the best constructed Opening Day bullpen that Minnesota has had in quite some time. While I expect there to be at least one move yet to be made, that should only further the overall ability of this group.

Twins Reinforcement Absent In September

With August officially coming to a close, and the Twins just a game back in the Wild Card standings, Paul Molitor's club is in uncharted territory. For the past four seasons, losing has been all the Twins have known. Now with a chance to play meaningful September baseball, promotions take on a whole different meaning.

As the Rochester Red Wings finished off a 4-2 win to end the month of August, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan watched the action unfold as he decided who he would bring back north with him. Upon exiting the Triple-A clubhouse for what can be assumed the last time in 2015, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, A.J. Achter, Eric Fryer, and Michael Tonkin were headed back to the big leagues.

Vargas had been all over the system in 2015 having played with the Twins, and as low as Double-A. Santana was being forced to prove that 2014 was more than a flash in the pan. Tonkin had been up and down more times than he'd like to admit, Fryer gives Molitor options, and Achter was still looking for his time to be long enough to make an impression. They now would all get to write the next chapter of their story.

The biggest news out of Rochester though, was who wasn't called up.

Having been informed that the Twins decision maker, Ryan, was there to watch him. Being told that a few solid performances could be the final push to get to the big leagues. With the knowledge in the back of his mind, Jose Berrios pitched.

His 3.08 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga didn't matter now, and nor did his 9.1 K/9 a step down. Not even his already impressive track record at Triple-A Rochester. What mattered were the few starts being watched by the man who held his fate in his hands. With Ryan on hand, Berrios pitched to the tune of 13 one run innings. He gave up just seven hits and struck out 17 while walking just one batter. His 0.69 ERA was near flawless, and opposing hitters mustered just a .146/.163/.229 line against him. At the end of it all though, it was deemed not enough.

Despite Kyle Gibson owning an ERA of 6.00 in August, forgetting that Tommy Milone had been hit around to a 5.40 mark over his last three starts, and negating the fact that one brilliant outing overshadowed a 9.12 ERA for Ervin Santana in the past month, Ryan decided there was no room for Berrios. With nearly 160 innings pitched under his belt, this was Berrios opportunity to make a contribution at the next level.

There's two trains of thought that could provide answers for the most obvious reasons to overlook such a needed commodity in Minnesota. The first, is Berrios' workload itself. Having pitched a career high 139.2 innings a season ago, a 20% increase was fast approaching. Whether of the belief that should be a hard stop to avoid arm damage for a young player or not, the Twins would no doubt want to exercise caution with the 21 year old.

Despite Berrios being in the best shape of his life (as quickly noticed by his offseason program), the long term health should continue to remain at the forefront. His big league contribution (from a health standpoint) would have made a lot of sense sometime in August, and no doubt would have afforded the Twins more work earlier on in the shutdown process.

On the flip side, there is baseball as a business. A team like the Twins generally is going to do what they can to keep control over young assets. Without the lucrative TV deal allowing spending to be amongst the league's best, smart contracts loom large. Berrios has a service clock that has yet to start, and a September call up would reverse that fact.

The problem with both of the reasons not to bring up what no doubt could be a key cog for the stretch run, is that both issues are somewhat simply addressed. On the health side of things, Terry Ryan was in person to watch Berrios is his most recent outings. Showing no signs of slowing down, the sentiment that Ryan suggested in regards to his limit being based on feel, seems little more than lip service. A 20% increase in innings is far from a gold standard, and once again, Berrios has done nothing but show he wants more.

In regards to service time, contracts, and controllability, the Twins decide to gamble on the future. While Berrios' service time would start with a September call up, a year of arbitration is not immediately lost. Had the Twins called him up now, and then held him at Triple-A until May 2016 (rather than starting with the Twins out of Spring Training), they would have saved the same year of service time. No doubt the practice would frustrate an agent, but the same can be said about the current handling.

At the end of the day, the Twins are in a position that no one expected them to be. Above .500 and competing for a playoff spot in the season's final month, an opportunity presented itself. Rather than capitalize on where they are currently, Terry Ryan decided to gamble and hope that in 2022 (when Berrios' final year of team control comes into play), matters just as much.

Minnesota could have positioned themselves for a playoff run now, in 2016, and going forward. Instead, they chose to play the "we're just happy to be here" card, and act as though 2015 is nothing more than a participation trophy.

The Roster Moves Are Coming, Aren't They?

Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins played one of the worst baseball games I have witnessed at the professional level for quite some time. With Phil Hughes leaving after five innings due to an injury, Tim Stauffer came on to take over. Handed a 7-3 lead, he promptly allowed two solo home runs (giving up three total runs), while getting just two outs. Casey Fien later allowed three more earned runs before leaving with an injury, and the Twins fell by a score of 10-7. Losing centerfield Jordan Schafer to injury in the game as well, the Twins looked to be hurting in every aspect. The assumption was that moves would be coming, but the matter now is when.

Looking at the game yesterday, the Twins watched as their two biggest deficiencies were exploited to an ugly extent. Having a below average defense hurt them on multiple occasions. Schafer and Oswaldo Arcia looked inept in the outfield, and a popup fell for a hit in the infield. Following a good start, the bullpen imploded giving up not only the lead, but also seven earned runs on 10 hits in just four innings. There's no doubt that Minnesota gave away a win yesterday, a chance at being a game within .500, and an opportunity for a second consecutive series win. With players like Stauffer and Schafer repeating those types of performances more often than not, Minnesota needs to make some changes.

It appeared initially that Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan may have had their hand finally forced. Losing Hughes, Schafer, and Fien all in the same game suggested that some moves would need to be made. For now however, it looks as if all three players should be able to overcome their setbacks in short order and avoid missing time. For the sake of the Twins however, injuries shouldn't dictate a certaint few moves being made.

Defense has been a problem all year, and it's only going to continue to be an issue. Minnesota has tried Schafer in center for plenty of time, and it's past the period of moving on. Aaron Hicks no doubt was the most sensible option in center for this club out of the gate, and it's time the Twins fix the mistake. Schafer is batting .188.204/.229, by all measurable standards, horrible doesn't being to describe that. Hicks is hitting .288/.385/.485 in Triple-A, and brings a plus level of defense to the field. His mental lapses can't happen, but Molitor can inflict that discipline on him. Shane Robinson makes sense as a fourth outfielder, and he's hit well even in a small sample size. Schafer has worn out his welcome in Minnesota, and Hicks should be up with the big league club within the next couple of weeks.

Despite snagging two hits yesterday, Kennys Vargas is slashing just .183/.246/.250. His power has not shown up, and he's been caught chasing pitches all over the plate. A trip to Triple-A to mash some breaking balls would probably do him well. Offering little at first base defensively, a switch to Trevor Plouffe or Chris Herrmann as the backup wouldn't be a big downgrade. In Rochester, Josmil Pinto continues to pound baseballs, and would immediately add a boost to the Twins lineup. Pinto is slashing .305/.397/.373. On top of that, he's thrown out 2-8 would be base stealers, and has allowed just one passed ball in 14 games. Pinto has little to prove on the farm and should also be with the big league club before the middle of May.

If Minnesota wants to be able to hang onto leads, a bullpen shakeup is going to be necessary. Rather than continuing to mutter that the club is looking for help, a quick glance at the farm would do the Twins well. Terry Ryan took fliers on Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer likely with the idea he could turn them into something later in the season (a la Sam Fuld). We can see that's not going to happen with Stauffer. His 8.38 ERA is horrid and just keeps climbing. DFA'ing Stauffer sometime soon would probably be the best practice. Boyer has looked sharper of late, and the Twins could still get value out of him if he can continue along that path. It's not a guarantee though, and there shouldn't be much of a leash there either.

The Twins bullpen is currently void of power arms, and the ones they could have taken north are in Triple-A. Michael Tonkin currently owns a 2.45 ERA with Rochester, and is striking out batters at a 12.3 K/9 clip (he is now taking over in the pen for Casey Fien who will hit the DL). Ryan Pressly's 4.50 ERA isn't where you'd like it to be, but it's only been 10 innings. He does however have a 13.5 K/9 and owned a 2.86 ERA for the Twins in 2014. Finally, Lester Oliveros owns a 1.04 ERA with Rochester, and has struck out batters at a ridiculous 17.7 K/9 rate. You could probably throw A.J. Achter into this group as well, and make the argument that all of them are better bullpen options than a handful of the guys the Twins currently are running out there. I'd expect to see at least one of them with the big league club within the next two weeks.

At the end of the day, it's a sad situation if it ultimately becomes injuries that force the Twins briantrust to make necessary moves. With that in mind however, this team needs to stretch wins in its favor by putting their most competitive lineup on the field each night. Running low-ceiling guys out there hoping they don't get burnt isn't a good practice. It by no means is time for the kids (check out how Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are hitting, the rust needs to come off first), but there's significantly better options in the organization than what the major league team has gone with. Let's get those moves queued up.

Familiar Faces Fill Out Twins Bullpen

Twins reliever Glen Perkins throws during spring training at Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers, Fla. (Pioneer Press: Ben Garvin)

Heading into the 2015 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a place they have not experienced for the past four seasons. With true positional battles taking place, there is a solid amount of depth and options for new manager Paul Molitor to plug in on Opening Day. While we have heard plenty about the shortstop, outfield, and backup catcher roles, some of the largest competition may come in the bullpen. With seven spots likely up for grabs, who fills them out still remains somewhat up in the air.

There is a decent amount of certainty when it comes to a few key members of the bullpen, but after them, the ambiguity looms large. Looking at the possible candidates and their probability of breaking camp with the Twins, I do my best to sort out what I expect to come of the Twins bullpen.

In no particular order, let's get started:

A.J. Achter- 5 percent
Achter got a cup of coffee a season ago with the Twins. Appearing in seven games at the end of the year. He pitched in 11 innings and gave up four runs; probably working against him the most was the .304 average he allowed to opposing hitters. Being right-handed, and failing to separate greatly from much of the competition, he faces an uphill battle to travel north.

Logan Darnell- 15 percent
Like Achter, Darnell surfaced in the big leagues during the 2014 season. Pitching four games as a starter and three more in relief, he threw 24 big league innings. Darnell coughed up 19 earned runs and five home runs in that time, while allowing opposing hitters to bat .307 off of him. In his favor is that he is a left-handed pitcher and could provide extra innings of long relief out of the bullpen.

Brian Duensing- 99 percent
The Twins took Duensing to arbitration this offseason, and settled on another raise for their left-handed reliever. Having operated solely as a reliever for the second consecutive season in 2014, Duensing threw 54.1 innings and owned a 3.31 ERA (the second best mark of his career). As Brandon Warne of Cold Omaha pointed out, Duensing is more of a lock than he should be, and especially considering a Twins offseason acquisition.

Casey Fien- 100 percent
Not much to explain here, Fien is locked in as Glen Perkins setup man. He brings a welcomed bravado to the club, and looked solid in the role a season ago. Nothing should change this time around.

J.R. Graham- 20 percent
Graham was a Rule 5 Draft pick out of the Atlanta Braves system. A former fireballer, injuries have somewhat stalled his career. The Twins have carried Rule 5 guys previously (Ryan Pressly) but Graham is certainly fighting against the multitude of options Minnesota has.

Lester Oliveros- 3 percent
The Twins brought Oliveros back to the big leagues last season for seven games. It was the his first exposure since a one game stint in 2012. A 7.11 ERA and two home runs over just 6.1 innings wasn't the output he was hoping for by any means. Oliveros has yet to appear in a spring training contest for the Twins in 2015.

Glen Perkins- 100 percent
The Twins made sure Perkins is here to stay with a new contract for their All Star closer. He's dealt with some injury issues early in spring training, and while it's not a great development, it shouldn't be anything that jeopardizes his regular season either. Expect Perkins to return to form as one of the best in the American League this season.

Ryan Pressly- 10 percent
Pressly pitched in 25 games for the Twins last season. Owning a 2.86 ERA he was actually better than should have been assumed seeing that he allowed hitters a .278 average off of him. Spring training hasn't been kind to him early (3 ER and 6 hits in 2.0 IP), and he faces an uphill battle to turn it around.

Stephen Pryor- 10 percent
The Twins return for Kendrys Morales a season ago, Pryor has yet to pitch in the big leagues for the Twins. He's gotten into two games thus far in spring training, and while he can probably get it done at the major league level, there's plenty of capable arms ahead of him as well.

Tim Stauffer- 75 percent
Thus far in spring training, Stauffer has gotten hit relatively hard. Brought in on a free agent deal after a decent season with the Padres, the Twins expect Stauffer to fill their Anthony Swarzak role. His spring may shorten his leash, but it's doubtful that it knocks him out of the pen on Opening Day.

Caleb Thielbar- 60 percent
A year ago, Thielbar regressed in the Twins bullpen, but his 2013 season still should be looked upon as a reason for him to stick. He gives the Twins a second lefty option and is someone that can pitch out of more than just a situational role.

Blaine Boyer- 49 percent
Boyer's inclusion probably depends on a few breaks going his way. Signing with the Twins after a good return in San Diego, Boyer is another left-handed arm the Twins could use. I don't see them bringing three lefties into the fold however.

Aaron Thompson- 6 percent
Probably the lone reason Thompson has an edge on both Achter and Oliveros is due to him being a lefty. The Twins have noted they would like to carry at least two. Thompson would need to be lights out the rest of spring to make an impact.

Michael Tonkin- 40 percent
A year ago, Tonkin broke into the big league club, and he has mentioned he wants to stick. A hard throwing reliever, Tonkin could prove valuable at the back end of the pen. Depending on how Molitor handles whomever misses out on the 5th rotation spot, Tonkin could squeak in.

Jason Wheeler- 5 percent
Of the left-handed options, Wheeler may be the least inspiring. In big league camp, he is getting his shot to impress. Minnesota will have options if they need to call up a lefty out of the pen later in the season, but I don't see Wheeler making an impact on Opening Day.

Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Tommy Milone, and Mike Pelfrey- 80 percent
The glut of starters competing for the 5th and final rotation spot has been well documented. At this point, Milone looks to have the upper hand. There's probably reason to suggest the role should go to Meyer (and I did so yesterday), regardless, I think at least one of those beat out ends up in the bullpen.