The Problem Behind The Plate

The Minnesota Twins are in the midst of a very impressive run. Easily the most surprising team in Major League Baseball this season, the Twins have positioned themselves atop the AL Central. While it's been a fun run, all of the advanced analytics suggest that regression is coming. While that sentiment may be overblown, the best way to curb the downfall in your favor is to attack it. That's something the Twins haven't necessarily done, and it may start behind the plate.

Whether you put stock in analytics or not, you'd be hard pressed to convince someone that the Twins aren't playing over their heads right now. Of course at some point that will begin to show, and if Minnesota wants to dull those effects, being proactive should be the taken route. Players such as Tim Stauffer, Chris Herrmann, Danny Santana, and even Eduardo Nunez could be upgraded from within. Doing so would result in a net positive for the Twins floor. One position and player not being talked about however is Kurt Suzuki, and the catching role.

Prior to this season, the Twins handed out a two-year extension to the veteran backstop. Regardless of his All-Star season in 2014, that was absolutely the right move. Locking down a reliable starting catcher is something that every major league team must do, but they all come at a relative premium. Minnesota didn't face a hefty price tag for Suzuki, and he fits with this team in the immediate plans. That said, he along with Santana, was a glaring candidate for regression. It's interesting to note that while it's hit hard, it's been overlooked.

In recent weeks, Suzuki has spent a considerable amount of time batting 5th in the Twins lineup despite lacking any semblance of power. This season, he's slashing .239/.317/.324 and has driven in just 15 runs. Not a high strikeout guy, Suzuki hasn't failed in one certain area, but rather has underwhelmed at the plate as a whole.

For Twins fans though, it's quickly pointed out that Suzuki is on the roster to catch. Many are quick to assimilate him to a defensive catcher, even while that doesn't appear to be the case. Forget the fact that Suzuki is one of the worst in the majors when it comes to pitch framing, he's actually been worth -2 DRS (defensive runs saved) this season. To put that into context, Chris Herrmann, the backup catcher and career minor leaguer, is worth exactly the same fWAR (0.2) and a better -1 DRS number.

There's little doubt that defensive catchers have value to big league teams. Typically they are paired with an offensive counterpart (ie. Drew Butera with Joe Mauer). In his time with the Twins, Drew Butera was worth 3, -1, and 2 DRS, a quantifiable asset behind the plate. While he did nothing with the bat, his presence was a welcomed addition to the lineup in a reserve capacity.

More often than not, Josmil Pinto has been tied to his lack of catching ability. There's no doubt he's not an every day backstop (he threw out ZERO runners in 25 chances last season), but that's the problem. He doesn't have to be.

Twins catchers are combining to hit .203/.265/.325 with 3 HR and have played below average defense. Down on the farm (and even in the midst of a relative cold spell), Pinto has hit .253/.330/.418 with 6 HR. The home run total would put Pinto tied for 5th best amongst MLB catchers. Currently, 12 teams have catchers with more home runs than either Suzuki or Herrmann.

The culmination of each of these issues is that the Twins have a position without a relative plan. Catcher's are generally regarded as power producing hitters, something the Twins have decided to balk on. Pinto was told he needed to hit, which he has, yet he sits behind two catchers that don't. Defensively, both catchers on the Twins rosters are also a net negative, and the best thing either one has going for them is a veteran presence that is respected by Twins pitchers.

In no way should the suggestion be that the Twins do anything with Kurt Suzuki. He over-performed last season, and the upcoming regression was seen a mile away. However, continuing to balk on Chris Herrmann as the backup makes little sense. Pinto brings immediate positives over the alternative, doesn't need to focus solely on catching, and removes lackluster options from the designated hitter role.

As mentioned at the beginning of this article, regression may be looming for the Twins, but it's up to them in how they combat it. Making internal upgrades to stave off potential downfalls seems like a good place to start. Doing so behind the plate sooner rather than later seems to make too much sense.

The Roster Moves Are Coming, Aren't They?

Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins played one of the worst baseball games I have witnessed at the professional level for quite some time. With Phil Hughes leaving after five innings due to an injury, Tim Stauffer came on to take over. Handed a 7-3 lead, he promptly allowed two solo home runs (giving up three total runs), while getting just two outs. Casey Fien later allowed three more earned runs before leaving with an injury, and the Twins fell by a score of 10-7. Losing centerfield Jordan Schafer to injury in the game as well, the Twins looked to be hurting in every aspect. The assumption was that moves would be coming, but the matter now is when.

Looking at the game yesterday, the Twins watched as their two biggest deficiencies were exploited to an ugly extent. Having a below average defense hurt them on multiple occasions. Schafer and Oswaldo Arcia looked inept in the outfield, and a popup fell for a hit in the infield. Following a good start, the bullpen imploded giving up not only the lead, but also seven earned runs on 10 hits in just four innings. There's no doubt that Minnesota gave away a win yesterday, a chance at being a game within .500, and an opportunity for a second consecutive series win. With players like Stauffer and Schafer repeating those types of performances more often than not, Minnesota needs to make some changes.

It appeared initially that Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan may have had their hand finally forced. Losing Hughes, Schafer, and Fien all in the same game suggested that some moves would need to be made. For now however, it looks as if all three players should be able to overcome their setbacks in short order and avoid missing time. For the sake of the Twins however, injuries shouldn't dictate a certaint few moves being made.

Defense has been a problem all year, and it's only going to continue to be an issue. Minnesota has tried Schafer in center for plenty of time, and it's past the period of moving on. Aaron Hicks no doubt was the most sensible option in center for this club out of the gate, and it's time the Twins fix the mistake. Schafer is batting .188.204/.229, by all measurable standards, horrible doesn't being to describe that. Hicks is hitting .288/.385/.485 in Triple-A, and brings a plus level of defense to the field. His mental lapses can't happen, but Molitor can inflict that discipline on him. Shane Robinson makes sense as a fourth outfielder, and he's hit well even in a small sample size. Schafer has worn out his welcome in Minnesota, and Hicks should be up with the big league club within the next couple of weeks.

Despite snagging two hits yesterday, Kennys Vargas is slashing just .183/.246/.250. His power has not shown up, and he's been caught chasing pitches all over the plate. A trip to Triple-A to mash some breaking balls would probably do him well. Offering little at first base defensively, a switch to Trevor Plouffe or Chris Herrmann as the backup wouldn't be a big downgrade. In Rochester, Josmil Pinto continues to pound baseballs, and would immediately add a boost to the Twins lineup. Pinto is slashing .305/.397/.373. On top of that, he's thrown out 2-8 would be base stealers, and has allowed just one passed ball in 14 games. Pinto has little to prove on the farm and should also be with the big league club before the middle of May.

If Minnesota wants to be able to hang onto leads, a bullpen shakeup is going to be necessary. Rather than continuing to mutter that the club is looking for help, a quick glance at the farm would do the Twins well. Terry Ryan took fliers on Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer likely with the idea he could turn them into something later in the season (a la Sam Fuld). We can see that's not going to happen with Stauffer. His 8.38 ERA is horrid and just keeps climbing. DFA'ing Stauffer sometime soon would probably be the best practice. Boyer has looked sharper of late, and the Twins could still get value out of him if he can continue along that path. It's not a guarantee though, and there shouldn't be much of a leash there either.

The Twins bullpen is currently void of power arms, and the ones they could have taken north are in Triple-A. Michael Tonkin currently owns a 2.45 ERA with Rochester, and is striking out batters at a 12.3 K/9 clip (he is now taking over in the pen for Casey Fien who will hit the DL). Ryan Pressly's 4.50 ERA isn't where you'd like it to be, but it's only been 10 innings. He does however have a 13.5 K/9 and owned a 2.86 ERA for the Twins in 2014. Finally, Lester Oliveros owns a 1.04 ERA with Rochester, and has struck out batters at a ridiculous 17.7 K/9 rate. You could probably throw A.J. Achter into this group as well, and make the argument that all of them are better bullpen options than a handful of the guys the Twins currently are running out there. I'd expect to see at least one of them with the big league club within the next two weeks.

At the end of the day, it's a sad situation if it ultimately becomes injuries that force the Twins briantrust to make necessary moves. With that in mind however, this team needs to stretch wins in its favor by putting their most competitive lineup on the field each night. Running low-ceiling guys out there hoping they don't get burnt isn't a good practice. It by no means is time for the kids (check out how Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are hitting, the rust needs to come off first), but there's significantly better options in the organization than what the major league team has gone with. Let's get those moves queued up.

Josmil Pinto And His Bat

Through the early part of the season, the Minnesota Twins knew they were going to be without the services of Josmil Pinto. After taking three swings to the back of the head in a spring training game, there's no doubt the time lost due to injury was going to cost him a roster spot. After a largely unimpressive 2014, Pinto needed to earn his way on, and time simply ran out. Knowing that it's his bat the will carry him at the next level, the promotion is coming, but what will it look like when it does?

Currently, the Twins have a two man catcher rotation with Kurt Suzuki splitting time with Chris Herrmann. Suzuki was signed to an extension a season ago, but even by backup standards, it remains a relatively modest deal. After being a prime candidate for offensive regression, the former Athletics backstop has failed to break the Mendoza Line for much of the season. Hardly a defensive whiz in his own right, it's fair to say that the Twins were hoping for more from Suzuki in 2015.

On days where Suzuki rests, and there haven't been many, Herrmann has slotted in behind the plate. While hitting for a respectable average, he hasn't had the plate appearances to put much weight into his numbers. Serviceable behind the plate, it was just a season ago that neither the Twins nor Herrmann himself saw catcher as his most valuable role to the team.

Out of the gate in Rochester, Pinto has gotten it done at the plate. Although the power numbers haven't been what the Twins would have hoped, he's hit for average and gotten on base. Behind the plate, he's made strides in both his ball receiving and his controlling of runners on the base paths. It was probably unfair to speculate how long the Twins would go without what would appear to be at least their second best catching option, but it seems as though the door is quickly opening.

With the calendar turning towards the second month of the season, Pinto's role with the big league club should be quickly defined. As has always been the case, his bat should once again prove to be the most valuable asset. The catching situation is something I ran through above, but unlike his comrades, Pinto should see time solely as a hitter through DH at bats. Kennys Vargas has struggled mightily in his second big league season, and as of right now, there doesn't appear to be an end in sight. Whether or not the Twins send Vargas to Rochester with Pinto making the return trip or not, losing at bats is something the switch hitting slugger is now becoming prone to.

Both Pinto and Vargas being young hitters, confidence remains as one of the most vital aspects to their success. Although Herrmann filling a roster spot isn't ideal, the best practice may be to allow both Pinto and Vargas to use confidence to their advantage. Kennys crushing some Triple-A pitching could ignite the spark, and Josmil employing an already hot bat on a team looking for an offensive jolt would be a nice reward. It would seem fair to argue the Twins are reaching decision making time, and Josmil Pinto's bat is probably going to be at the center of the discussion.

Final Roster Signifies Hopeful Horizon

Minnesota Twins catcher Josmil Pinto (43, center left) is hugged by designated hitter Kennys Vargas (19) Saturday, Feb. 28, 2015 at CenturyLink Sports Complex in Fort Myers, Fla. Today marked the first full-squad workout of spring training. (Corey Perrine/Staff)

The Minnesota Twins announced that they will bring Chris Herrmann north to backup catcher Kurt Suzuki. With the move, it effectively ends any speculation as to whether or not Paul Molitor would choose to go with the power hitting backstop Josmil Pinto. Like the outfield decisions before it, the selection of the backup catcher for the Twins is a safe decision. At the end of the day, it all adds up to a roster that is likely to improve through the addition to its total parts.

There's very little argument to be made that Herrmann is a more major league capable player than Pinto. Despite batting .304/.373/.505 at Triple-A Rochester a season ago, Herrmann is a career .196/.264/.284 hitter in 250 major league at bats. He probably gives the Twins a more serviceable backstop, and he offers positional flexibility, but you'd be kidding yourself not to suggest he leaves something to be desired. That being said, the Twins weren't put in the most ideal position when it came to making the decision.

Even neglecting the fact that Pinto recently dealt with concussion like symptoms, injuries and other issues allowed him to play in just eight spring training games. Knowing it will be his bat that carries him at the major league level, Minnesota wanted to see improvement from the .219/.315/.391 slash line that was posted just a season ago. With limited exposure down in Fort Myers, there just was not enough time for Pinto to lay claim to the spot. Undoubtedly someone that will never be a good defensive catcher, Pinto should ride his bat to the big club in short order this season. That notion is something that the Twins likely see taking place across the board.

Like with Pinto, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, and Alex Meyer all find themselves in similar situations. From the get go, the Twins made safe decisions when it came to the Opening Day roster. Looking to have a sure thing (even at the cost of a limited ceiling), the Twins turned away from more enticing options. While that's not the desired result for fans, or even for the club immediately looking to turn the corner, it continues to drive the narrative that this club can excel from within.

As the season kicks off in Rochester, it will be those five players that have the most to gain. A litany of factors will determine when exactly they surface with the big league club, but you can bet the timing will be in the best interest of the club. Should one get off to a hot start, combined with a slow one from a current active roster member, seeing a late April or May move would make sense. Each of the five players mentioned has a relatively high ceiling. If the Twins can get them trending towards that direction prior to their callup, they will only increase the overall potential for the big league club.

For the Twins to surprise, and make a splash large than expected in 2015, it will come through the timely promotion of guys within the organization. A need being exposed at the top, and being filled from a player that can excel in the role, is something that should continue to be a worthwhile storyline long into the summer.

The Position Battles Are Decided For The Twins

This spring training we have heard plenty of news about the Twins and the positional battles the team would be focusing on. From the outfield, to shortstop, to backstop, Minnesota has plenty of options to explore. There's no doubt that having options is a great thing, but a few weeks away from Opening Day, it's time to decipher the fact that the positional battles are likely already decided.

Knowing that Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are continually evaluating all of the competitions throughout the spring, nothing is yet set in stone. As long as things continue to progress and trend down the path that they currently are, we should have a good idea where everything is going to end up. Looking away from the rotation and bullpen, Minnesota will be making three key decisions in the coming weeks.

Mar 9, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks (32) pops a ball up to third during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports 

Centerfield

Update: On Saturday morning, the Twins sent both Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario to Triple-A Rochester. Shane Robinson and Jordan Schafer will now take over centerfield for the immediate future. As seen here, I'm not sure who missed more on this decision. Me for suggesting the wrong guy, or the Twins for going through with it.

Starting the furthest from the plate, the Twins went into camp wondering who would be their Opening Day centerfielder. With Aaron Hicks looking like the odds on favorite, he would be given the first crack, and that should likely stick heading north as well. Is it fair to be down on the production that Hicks has shown at the major league level thus far, of course. That being said, 2015 represents a new opportunity for the former first round pick. Never before in his career has he been given the opportunity to progress from Double to Triple-A in succession, he did so last season and had solid results.

This spring, Hicks has had a few mental lapses while producing at a very mediocre level at the plate. The statistical results mean very little (remember he made the club from Double-A due in part to a massive spring training in 2013), but the mental mistakes need to cease. Out of the gate however, it should and will be Hicks starting in center. This is his last chance, and the Twins can't afford to ignore the production put up through normal succession a season ago.

Jordan Schafer is a prototypical fourth outfielder and isn't going to bring much more to the table. His speed is an asset, but probably more a luxury than anything. Eddie Rosario has played himself into the conversation this spring, but the Twins would be best to hold off. With the ability to play all three outfield positions, he is an ideal fit on the 25 man. However, he needs to be able to see significant playing time, and that can't take place until the Twins can make a decision on Aaron Hicks. Ideally, Hicks plays well out of the gate, and Rosario forces the Twins to make a decision on a much less talented Schafer.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Shortstop

Don't be fooled, Danny Santana is the Minnesota Twins starting shortstop when they take the field against the Detroit Tigers on Opening Day. That's not to say Eduardo Escobar has not had a great spring, but instead that the Twins are best utilizing all of their options.

Last season, Santana had the third highest batting average on balls in play since 1961. With that number, there's reason to believe that his average is not something he's going to replicate in 2015. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor both seem realistic in understanding that fact. However, given his production, there's no reason to pull him from the lineup at this point. Although he played centerfield a season ago, putting him there this year amongst other more capable options, would be indicative of overvaluing his ability at the plate. Santana has earned the right to start at short, and will for the forseeable future.

That brings Escobar front and center. Over the course of spring training, next to no one has been more impressive than the Twins return for Francisco Liriano. Escobar has been an RBI machine, shown positional flexibility, and continues to get it done at the plate. Those reasons all add up to why the Twins can't force him into the starting shortstop role when they head north. As a utility player, Escobar gives the Twins the ability to put him all over the diamond, and see no dip in production no matter where he plays. Instead of having a defensive-minded utility guy, the Twins have someone who can get it done in the field and at the plate in Escobar, an asset they haven't seen in a while.

Over the course of the 2015 season, Escobar will be given plenty of starts at shortstop, but allowing Molitor to use him as a utility man makes the Twins better as a whole.

Mar 17, 2015; Sarasota, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Josmil Pinto (43) prepares to hit in the batting cage before the start of the spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports 

Catcher

As fluid as the game of baseball is, the backup catcher took another interesting turn over the weekend as Josmil Pinto was shelved with concussion-like symptoms. After taking a backswing from Adam Jones to the head, the leader in the backup catcher race now finds himself recovering once again.

Having missed time out of the gate with a leg injury, and now dealing with the head injury, Pinto has to be considered somewhat of a longshot to break camp on the 25 man roster. He would likely need to be fully cleared with over a week's worth of games left to enter back into the conversation. While that isn't out of the realm of possibility, it would also appear to be an uphill battle at this point.

If Pinto isn't the guy behind Kurt Suzuki for the Twins, Molitor would be forced to turn to the likes of Eric Fryer or Chris Herrmann. Neither player is an ideal big league fit, but of the two, it's Herrmann that probably makes the most sense. Having flexibility to play other positions as well, Herrmann allows Molitor some options. Having caught seven games this spring, and hit .400 across 20 at bats, Herrmann could be said to have played himself into this position.

On the flip side, Fryer has struggled in Fort Myers for the Twins. Across nine games, he has hit just .190 and offers very little upside. While Herrmann isn't a major league mainstay either, Fryer hasn't done enough to warrant consideration as a placeholder for the Twins. Behind Suzuki, the backup catcher needs to bring as many tools to the table as possible, and Fryer simply doesn't have enough.

Minnesota should be expecting Suzuki to take steps backwards offensively on his own this season. He had a career year a season ago, and expecting that to continue is probably far-fetched. Not a defensive wizard, Suzuki is average on his own, and the Twins will need some production out of whoever they slot in behind him. The ideal scenario would have been the power hitting Pinto, but his recent injury may have to change their way of thinking.

What this all boils down to is that while the Twins are continuing to find themselves for the upcoming season, the positional battles seem all but determined. Expecting a major shift to take place with just a couple of weeks before Opening Day probably isn't going to happen. While the grips on the roles may not be lock tight, I feel confident in suggesting that they are as stated above. The Twins will be as good as their worst player, and this year they are in a better spot than any of the previous four. It would be beneficial if it would stay that way.

Twins Already With Bad Luck Mounting

Mar 17, 2015; Sarasota, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Josmil Pinto (43) prepares to hit in the batting cage before the start of the spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports 

In 2015, the Minnesota Twins have quite a fluid pendulum that can swing in terms of just how their season goes. While there's no doubt the roster is in a much better spot than it was a season ago, things can come crashing down very quickly if the club suffers the wrong breaks. With a ceiling near a wild card berth, the Twins need fortune on their side, and if spring training is any indication, it may not be.

Over the course of the weekend, the Twins held their breath as two integral players in the organization suffered setbacks. First, while playing in a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles, Josmil Pinto was hit on the follow through by three Adam Jones swings. With the bat making contact with the Twins catcher, concussion tests were the next steps taken.

Although nothing has been conclusively decided, both Paul Molitor and GM Terry Ryan have noted that Pinto has "concussion-like" symptoms. Yesterday, Ryan went as far as saying that if this took place during the regular season, Pinto would be placed on the 7-day disabled list for a concussion. If there's a team that understands the seriousness of brain injuries, it's probably the Twins. After the considerable amount of time that players like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Sam Fuld missed in recent memory, Pinto's setback has to be a cause for concern.

The backup catcher role was a spot of competition for the Twins this spring. With Pinto working to hold off the likes of Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer, the latest set back doesn't help his cause. Spending time on the shelf early in spring training, Pinto has gotten only 18 plate appearances in seven games for the Twins. On top of that, he has not been behind the plate for all seven of those games, the area where he needs to convince the Twins the most.

At this point, it's fair to start wondering what Molitor, Ryan, and the Twins are forced to do should Pinto miss extended time. Neither Herrmann nor Fryer are ideal major league options, but one of them could be forced into action. Herrmann offers more versatility to the Twins, and is probably the logical choice if Pinto is unable to compete. Should the Twins get Pinto back with a week or so left in spring training, the backup role is probably still his to lose. However, as brain injuries go, that remains a big if.

And then there's the first pitcher injury the Twins have dealt with.

After being shut down less than a year ago due to discomfort in his elbow, Twins prospect Lewis Thorpe is having issues again. The previous shutdown was in regards to a strained Ulnar Collateral Ligament, otherwise known as the unfortunate precursor for Tommy John surgery. While pitching in a spring training game over the weekend, Thorpe was removed from the action due to pain in his left arm once again. The Twins will be sending the Australian pitcher for an MRI, and the bullet that was previously dodged may now hit.

If an MRI deems that Thorpe does in fact have damage to his UCL, he will likely be headed for Tommy John surgery. It would effectively end his 2015 season, and more than likely, the beginning of his 2016 year. Although the surgery has come a long way and pitchers are able to rebound from the setback, the loss of developmental time for a young arm would be potentially damaging.

While it's still extremely early in the 2015 season, the Twins enter the year with a relatively clean bill of health. Having these two potentially serious issues arise could set forth an ugly waterfall effect. For a team that lost both top prospects in Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton a season ago, avoiding the injury bug would be a critical step for the upcoming season. Although the Twins are in a better place than they have been previously, the room for error is slim and injuries could grind positivity to a halt in short order.

As teams around the league have seen top contributors fall off left and right this spring, let's hope that the Twins can navigate both Pinto and Thorpe through a best case scenario. Here's to hoping Minnesota finds themselves staying healthy throughout the 2015 campaign.