Injuries are never good, and cheering for an opposing player to go down is not something anyone would advocate for. However, they are an inevitability in the world of sports,and the Twins have a big opportunity thanks to two recent maladies.
Both the Tigers and the Royals were bit by the injury bug in a bad way recently. Detroit watched stay first basemen Miguel Cabrera head to the disabled list for the first time in his career. Early indications suggest he could be out into September. The hurt at the top of the AL Central doesn't stop there however. Twins killer Alex Gordon also has wound up on the DL and will be there for at least the next 8 weeks.
It's pretty hard to overstate how integral both of these players are for their respective teams. Cabrera and the Tigers are currently in 3rd in the AL Central race. They trail the Twins by just 1.5 games and are 8-2 against Minnesota on the season. Cabrera owns a .350/.456/.578 slash line and has hit 15 round trippers to go with 54 RBI. Just two years removed from winning the Triple Crown, he is every bit the same scary hitter he has been over the course of his career.
For the Royals, Alex Gordon offers value in a different form. Instead of being a beast with the bat, he gets it done with his glove. Gordon is hitting .279/.2394/.457 (one of the best lines of his career) and has added 11 home runs and 39 RBI. As mentioned though, it's in the field where Gordon will be missed. He's been worth 4 DRS (defensive runs saved) and owns a 7.9 UZR paired with a 15.7 UZR/150 rating. Watch enough Twins games against the Royals, and you've likely cursed Gordon taking away a sure base hit.
Now nearing the All Star Break, push must come to shove for the Twins. Minnesota has tread water for quite some time. After a blistering May, Minnesota ran into an ugly month of June. Thanks to losing streaks by Detroit and Kansas City though, the Twins held serve. With both of those teams missing key cogs, it's time to start taking advantage.
The twins split with the Royals to open the month despite the fact that they were in position to win all four games. In the first matchup of the month against the Tigers, a late inning meltdown led to yet another failed opportunity to capitalize. If the Twins want to climb the standings, and create some distance, it will start by reversing the fortunes of a 2-8 record against the Tigers.
With Minnesota not facing either division rival again until September, it will be on them to handle their own business. It's a pretty good bet that both Detroit and Kansas City will experience a downturn with their injuries. While Cabrera and Gordon are out, the Twins must set themselves up for a good September.
Minnesota will need to make some adjustments before the trade deadline if they are going to stay in the race, but the biggest positive for the Twins may have come at the expense of their divisional foes.
Friday, July 10, 2015
Thursday, July 9, 2015
The Twins Should Keep On Dancing
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Twins outfielder Torii Hunter leads a (fully clothed) after-practice team cheer at Twins spring training in Fort Myers, Fla., on March 3, 2015. (Pioneer Press: John Autey) |
Torii was being sold as a veteran leader, and there's no doubt he brought that ability. From a baseball sense however, he was a clear downgrade in the outfield, and his bat absolutely needed to play to put weight to the move. So far, everything has worked out wonderfully, and maybe the best things Torii has brought to the club is his post-win dance parties.
"We win. We dance." It's a moniker displayed on the videoboards around Target Field following a Twins win. Now with over 45 of them under their belt heading into the All Star Break, the Twins have plenty of reasons to dance this season.
Of late, maybe one of the most important reasons for the Twins to celebrate is the reemergence of Joe Mauer. Arguably the most polarizing sports figure in Minnesota, Mauer has gone from a near Hall of Fame lock, to being a punching bag for many. In June, his average dipped to the .250 mark, and 2015 looked to be the beginning of what was a steep decline. Then things clicked.
Since June 5, Mauer owns a .301/.385/.469 line with five home runs, 12 RBI, and a 16/22 B/K ratio. More impressive than that, he has been on an absolute tear of late. Since June 26, Mauer has slashed .388/.426/.531 with two home runs and five RBI, and in the month of July he owns a .400/.438/.633 line. Now hitting for relative power again, with six home runs on the year, Mauer has a shot to post his best total since 2009.
Just ahead of Mauer in the lineup, the Twins have watched a legitimate MVP candidate emerge. Nevermind the fact that Brian Dozier belongs in the All Star Game, he's the best second basemen in all of baseball. 18 home runs, 45 RBI, 26 doubles, and a career best .851 OPS, Dozier is an elite level talent.
While last year saw a second half slide in the power department for the Twins second basemen, skipping the Home Run Derby should no doubt benefit Dozier this time around. On pace for right around 30 home runs and 50 doubles, Dozier is having one of the best power production seasons in Twins history. On top of that, Dozier continues to flash the leather routinely in the field. If nothing but Brian Dozier went right for the Twins this season, it'd be hard not to be happy.
On the mound, the Twins have watched years go by as pitching has been an absolute atrocity. This season however, not only has it been improved, but the team's starters have actually been a strength. Maybe most surprisingly, the Twins have enjoyed the development of Tommy Milone.
Already a proven starter when the Twins acquired him, Milone took his lumps for the first season he spent with the Twins. After getting sent down to Triple-A Rochester early in 2015, he has since come back with a vengeance. Throwing to the tune of a 0.70 ERA and a .182/.200/.248 for Rochester, Milone has gone 3-0 in his seven starts back with the Twins. In those games he owns a 1.84 ERA 32/11 K/BB ratio and just a .236/.284/.345 line against. To put it bluntly, Milone has been virtually untouchable.
It's not just Tommy getting the job done however. Fellow starting pitcher, and former first round Twins draft pick, Kyle Gibson has been equally as impressive. Expected to take steps forward this season, he has absolutely risen to the occasion. On the year Gibson owns a 3.04 ERA, 6.1 K/9 ratio, and just a 2.9 BB/9 mark. In his last five starts for the Twins, Gibson owns a 2.56 ERA and is allowing opposing hitters to bat just .239 against him.
The former Missouri Tiger was always expected to be a top half of the rotation guy in the big leagues. After mixed results in his first two seasons, the Twins were hoping that the further he distanced himself from Tommy John surgery, the better he would be. It's safe to say no one expected Gibson to be amongst the American League's best in ERA, but that's where we find ourselves.
If that already isn't enough reasons to be dancing with excitement, you can probably add in the fact that the Twins are winning as well. Holding pace with the best in the American League, the playoffs look like something more than a mirage for the first time in a while. On top of making that a reality, the organization has found room for top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to make their big league debut prior to the All Star Break.
While Buxton's debut didn't start as smoothly as hoped (and now he's shelved on the DL), the fact that he blitzed Double-A was a great thing. Although his bat will take some time to transition to the big league level, it's no surprise the difference he makes in the Twins outfield.
On the flip side, Sano has done everything he's been asked to at the big league level. Fortunately, he's really only been asked to hit, and hit he has. In his first seven games at the big league level, Sano has slashed .455/.571/.682, hit his first home run, and driven in five RBI. Also, and maybe even more impressively, Sano owns an even 6/6 K/BB ratio. He's a week into his big league career, and pitchers have already been pitching around him.
Counting up all of the reasons, and there's plenty more than have been discussed here, Torii Hunter could probably double as a dance instructor. Brought in for some veteran leadership and a hope his bat had some pop left in it, Hunter has helped to reverse a culture of losing, and make the Twins look like an AL Central power once again.
The Twins have been doing plenty of winning, but even when they aren't, there's been plenty of reasons to be dancing.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
The Trade That Fleeced The West
To kick off the week, the Minnesota Twins welcomed the Baltimore Orioles into the friendly confines of Target Field. Looking around the diamond, it's hard not to get a little upset knowing J.J. Hardy is standing at shortstop while Jim Hoey is off building computers somewhere. Although the Twins have been on the short end of the stick in their fair share of roster moves, this season it's been about one of the best trades in recent memory.
Despite looking to make a run at the playoffs in 2014 by bringing in slugging designated hitter Kendrys Morales, the Twins sealed their fate by mid-summer. Sellers at the trade deadline, Minnesota had few assets that other teams coveted. The one they did have however, was an outfielder claimed off of waivers just a few months earlier.
Cast off by the Oakland Athletics, Sam Fuld was snagged by the Twins. With Aaron Hicks struggling, Oswaldo Arcia being what he is defensively, and the options running thin, the Twins needed a capable fielder. Snatching up Billy Beane's castoff, the Twins employed Fuld for 53 games last season.
Over the course of those 53 games, Fuld proved extremely valuable for the Twins. The scrappy outfielder hit .274/.370/.354 with 10 doubles and 17 runs batted in. Then it happened, on July 31, the Athletics came knocking. Needing to make up for the oft-injured Coco Crisp, and outfield deficiencies of their own, Beane wanted Fuld back for his playoff run. In return, he would off the Twins Tommy Milone.
Milone is far from an elite level major league pitcher, and he's probably not even a front end of the rotation type guy. However, for a team in the doldrums of the Major League Baseball ERA standings, the amount of value was through the roof.
Sure, Milone's first impression for the Twins was less than ideal. In six games, he owned a 7.06 ERA, his 4.6 BB/9 ratio wasn't good, and the former Oakland pitcher was rarely healthy. Coming off of that performance, spring training was going to be an uphill battle as well. Competing for the 5th and final rotation spot, Milone just squeaked into what was slated to be a much improved Twins rotation.
After a rocky start to the season, Milone was given a chance to let things click. Being sent down to Triple-A Rochester, Tommy really turned things on. On the farm, he pitched five games going 4-0, owning a 0.70 ERA, striking out 47 in 38.2 IP, and walking just three. On top of that, he allowed opposing hitters to bat just .182/.200/.248 off of him. By all accounts, he was absolutely brilliant.
What's better is that it hasn't stopped.
Since returning to the Twins on June 4th, Milone has pitched six games and owns a 1.95 ERA across that span. He's struck out 29, walked just nine, and pitched 37 innings. Allowing just a .243/.289/.350 slash line against, major league hitters have been overmatched by the soft-tossing lefty as well.
The level of production Milone has afforded the Twins in 2015 couldn't have been predicted by even the most in tune baseball minds. Knowing that the Twins gave up nothing to get him (or more accurately, rented a player and then received a pay day for it), makes the situation all that much better.
It's probably not fair to suggest that this run of brilliance is going to continue, at least not at this level. His current ERA ranks amongst the American League leaders, and after all, he still remains a less than ideal top end starter. For the Twins though, he absolutely makes sense, and remains a massive asset going forward.
Knowing that pitchers like Jose Berrios, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers are all readily available to provide quality depth, Milone's brilliance only bolsters the Twins going forward. Not eligible for free agency until 2019, Minnesota has a very controllable asset at their disposal, and they will continue to be all the better for it.
From the get go, Terry Ryan and the Twins absolutely fleeced Billy Beane, the Athletics, and the AL West by sending Sam Fuld back in exchange for Milone. With his emergence in 2015, the icing on the cake looks even tastier.
Despite looking to make a run at the playoffs in 2014 by bringing in slugging designated hitter Kendrys Morales, the Twins sealed their fate by mid-summer. Sellers at the trade deadline, Minnesota had few assets that other teams coveted. The one they did have however, was an outfielder claimed off of waivers just a few months earlier.
Cast off by the Oakland Athletics, Sam Fuld was snagged by the Twins. With Aaron Hicks struggling, Oswaldo Arcia being what he is defensively, and the options running thin, the Twins needed a capable fielder. Snatching up Billy Beane's castoff, the Twins employed Fuld for 53 games last season.
Over the course of those 53 games, Fuld proved extremely valuable for the Twins. The scrappy outfielder hit .274/.370/.354 with 10 doubles and 17 runs batted in. Then it happened, on July 31, the Athletics came knocking. Needing to make up for the oft-injured Coco Crisp, and outfield deficiencies of their own, Beane wanted Fuld back for his playoff run. In return, he would off the Twins Tommy Milone.
Milone is far from an elite level major league pitcher, and he's probably not even a front end of the rotation type guy. However, for a team in the doldrums of the Major League Baseball ERA standings, the amount of value was through the roof.
Sure, Milone's first impression for the Twins was less than ideal. In six games, he owned a 7.06 ERA, his 4.6 BB/9 ratio wasn't good, and the former Oakland pitcher was rarely healthy. Coming off of that performance, spring training was going to be an uphill battle as well. Competing for the 5th and final rotation spot, Milone just squeaked into what was slated to be a much improved Twins rotation.
After a rocky start to the season, Milone was given a chance to let things click. Being sent down to Triple-A Rochester, Tommy really turned things on. On the farm, he pitched five games going 4-0, owning a 0.70 ERA, striking out 47 in 38.2 IP, and walking just three. On top of that, he allowed opposing hitters to bat just .182/.200/.248 off of him. By all accounts, he was absolutely brilliant.
What's better is that it hasn't stopped.
Since returning to the Twins on June 4th, Milone has pitched six games and owns a 1.95 ERA across that span. He's struck out 29, walked just nine, and pitched 37 innings. Allowing just a .243/.289/.350 slash line against, major league hitters have been overmatched by the soft-tossing lefty as well.
The level of production Milone has afforded the Twins in 2015 couldn't have been predicted by even the most in tune baseball minds. Knowing that the Twins gave up nothing to get him (or more accurately, rented a player and then received a pay day for it), makes the situation all that much better.
It's probably not fair to suggest that this run of brilliance is going to continue, at least not at this level. His current ERA ranks amongst the American League leaders, and after all, he still remains a less than ideal top end starter. For the Twins though, he absolutely makes sense, and remains a massive asset going forward.
Knowing that pitchers like Jose Berrios, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers are all readily available to provide quality depth, Milone's brilliance only bolsters the Twins going forward. Not eligible for free agency until 2019, Minnesota has a very controllable asset at their disposal, and they will continue to be all the better for it.
From the get go, Terry Ryan and the Twins absolutely fleeced Billy Beane, the Athletics, and the AL West by sending Sam Fuld back in exchange for Milone. With his emergence in 2015, the icing on the cake looks even tastier.
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
The Trades The Twins Should And Should Not Make
Although we are still at the beginning of July, you can bet that the Minnesota Twins and Major League Baseball contenders as a whole, have begun looking for ways to improve their rosters. For the Twins, this seems like uncharted territory given the last four seasons, but here we are. As Minnesota looks to hang into the AL Central, they no doubt need to remain patiently alert.
Terry Ryan and the Twins have rarely had a knack for making big splashes, and that should be counted on as a constant much more often than it shouldn't be. However, knowing this team is still outperforming advanced analytics, sustained winning will likely take other options to continue as a possibility.
Looking at the proposed names thus far in relation to the Twins, there's some intriguing options, and some less than appealing. How the Twins navigate this month could determine the way in which they deal with the end of it. Here are a few of the possibilities:
Will Smith- LHP Brewers
Smith is up for arbitration in 2016, and is under team control until 2020. At age 25, that makes him immediately someone tied to a higher acquisition cost for a team looking to upgrade their bullpen. On the season Smith owns a 1.47 ERA, 1.74 FIP, and an 11.7 K/9. He probably walks more batters than you'd like out of a reliever (3.5 BB/9) but there's no doubt the strikeout punch would be nice for the Twins pen.
If Minnesota is determined to make a splash of sorts, Smith is probably as far as I would suggest going. He's likely going to net the Brewers a sizable return, and while he should factor into the Twins future plans as well, I'm not sure I'd be for giving up valuable assets here.
Neal Cotts- LHP Brewers
Sticking with the Brewers, Cotts presents a different kind of possibility. At 35, and a free agent after the season, Milwaukee can't be expecting much more than a mid-level prospect in return. Cotts hasn't been lights out as he owns a 3.53 ERA backed by a 4.29 FIP. He strikes out guys at a solid rate (9.3 K/9) but also walks his fair share of batter (3.0 BB/9). Against lefties though, Cotts is more than respectable giving up just a .200/.224/.309 slash line. Also, in his last 18 appearances, he's been virtually untouchable: 19.2 IP 0.92 ERA 21/7 K/BB .217/.289/.232.
This is probably the type of move I would advocate the Twins to make. Right now, the bridge between each night's starting pitcher and Glen Perkins is shakier than a trapeze artist on a tightrope. Cotts isn't your typical LOOGY, and he's proved more than effective of late. If Milwaukee is willing to deal, the Twins should be listening here.
Marlon Byrd- OF Reds
Sure, he's 37 years old, but Marlon Byrd continues to prove valuable through his bat. For the Reds this season, Byrd has slashed .245/.300/.467. With 14 home runs, 32 RBI, and a .767 OPS, Byrd has kept father time at bay. It's not that the Twins offense is too good for a bat like that to play, but instead, that they don't necessarily have a place to put him.
Minnesota's largest position of depth at the major league level right now is in the outfielder. They have the best prospect in all of baseball who will be nearing a return, young players in Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario who continue to have value, and a veteran (who has posted similar numbers to Byrd) in Torii Hunter. On top of those mentioned, we haven't even discussed Oswaldo Arcia (who is mashing down in Triple-A Rochester: .412/.44/.824 4 HR 10 RBI in his last 8 games), or 40 man prospect Max Kepler.
It's probably not that Byrd doesn't have value, but adding him may hurt the Twins in the long run more than it helps.
Carlos Gomez- CF Brewers
A retread of a former Twins player has to be thrown in here. After all, Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier, and Jason Bartlett have all been back through lately. Obviously Gomez is in another league than those guys, but it's worth noting nonetheless. Gomez is an All Star level talent and is hitting .268/.313/.420 in a down year this season. He's got six home runs and 32 RBI for the Brewers, and he continues to track down everything in the outfield.
Forget the fact that an outfield with Gomez, Buxton, and Hicks would never see a flyball drop (ever), but many of the same problems a Byrd acquisition would face come into play here. The Twins outfield is crowded, and is a position of depth more than anything. On top of that, Gomez would likely cost the Twins a prospect like Jose Berrios. Combine that with the fact Gomez is a free agent after 2016, and being a Scott Boras client, likely wouldn't re-sign with the Twins. I don't know how Minnesota could mortgage the future for a year and a half window.
The Twins find themselves in the curious position of being relevant before they expected. While relief help fills a need this season, it should be expected to benefit going forward (after all, internal options are thin at the moment). Going forward though, the Twins have more pressing needs at positions like shortstop and catcher than to be dealing for a boost in an odd area.
With plenty of time left in July, and more importantly games left to be played, things should sort themselves out on the field for Minnesota. If the Twins can keep winning and stay in the thick of the race, adding a lower cost relief option would be a necessary move. No matter how the situation shakes out though, making a big splash or dealing prized prospects likely won't (and shouldn't) be the plan of action.
Terry Ryan and the Twins have rarely had a knack for making big splashes, and that should be counted on as a constant much more often than it shouldn't be. However, knowing this team is still outperforming advanced analytics, sustained winning will likely take other options to continue as a possibility.
Looking at the proposed names thus far in relation to the Twins, there's some intriguing options, and some less than appealing. How the Twins navigate this month could determine the way in which they deal with the end of it. Here are a few of the possibilities:
Will Smith- LHP Brewers
Smith is up for arbitration in 2016, and is under team control until 2020. At age 25, that makes him immediately someone tied to a higher acquisition cost for a team looking to upgrade their bullpen. On the season Smith owns a 1.47 ERA, 1.74 FIP, and an 11.7 K/9. He probably walks more batters than you'd like out of a reliever (3.5 BB/9) but there's no doubt the strikeout punch would be nice for the Twins pen.
If Minnesota is determined to make a splash of sorts, Smith is probably as far as I would suggest going. He's likely going to net the Brewers a sizable return, and while he should factor into the Twins future plans as well, I'm not sure I'd be for giving up valuable assets here.
Neal Cotts- LHP Brewers
Sticking with the Brewers, Cotts presents a different kind of possibility. At 35, and a free agent after the season, Milwaukee can't be expecting much more than a mid-level prospect in return. Cotts hasn't been lights out as he owns a 3.53 ERA backed by a 4.29 FIP. He strikes out guys at a solid rate (9.3 K/9) but also walks his fair share of batter (3.0 BB/9). Against lefties though, Cotts is more than respectable giving up just a .200/.224/.309 slash line. Also, in his last 18 appearances, he's been virtually untouchable: 19.2 IP 0.92 ERA 21/7 K/BB .217/.289/.232.
This is probably the type of move I would advocate the Twins to make. Right now, the bridge between each night's starting pitcher and Glen Perkins is shakier than a trapeze artist on a tightrope. Cotts isn't your typical LOOGY, and he's proved more than effective of late. If Milwaukee is willing to deal, the Twins should be listening here.
Marlon Byrd- OF Reds
Sure, he's 37 years old, but Marlon Byrd continues to prove valuable through his bat. For the Reds this season, Byrd has slashed .245/.300/.467. With 14 home runs, 32 RBI, and a .767 OPS, Byrd has kept father time at bay. It's not that the Twins offense is too good for a bat like that to play, but instead, that they don't necessarily have a place to put him.
Minnesota's largest position of depth at the major league level right now is in the outfielder. They have the best prospect in all of baseball who will be nearing a return, young players in Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario who continue to have value, and a veteran (who has posted similar numbers to Byrd) in Torii Hunter. On top of those mentioned, we haven't even discussed Oswaldo Arcia (who is mashing down in Triple-A Rochester: .412/.44/.824 4 HR 10 RBI in his last 8 games), or 40 man prospect Max Kepler.
It's probably not that Byrd doesn't have value, but adding him may hurt the Twins in the long run more than it helps.
Carlos Gomez- CF Brewers
A retread of a former Twins player has to be thrown in here. After all, Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier, and Jason Bartlett have all been back through lately. Obviously Gomez is in another league than those guys, but it's worth noting nonetheless. Gomez is an All Star level talent and is hitting .268/.313/.420 in a down year this season. He's got six home runs and 32 RBI for the Brewers, and he continues to track down everything in the outfield.
Forget the fact that an outfield with Gomez, Buxton, and Hicks would never see a flyball drop (ever), but many of the same problems a Byrd acquisition would face come into play here. The Twins outfield is crowded, and is a position of depth more than anything. On top of that, Gomez would likely cost the Twins a prospect like Jose Berrios. Combine that with the fact Gomez is a free agent after 2016, and being a Scott Boras client, likely wouldn't re-sign with the Twins. I don't know how Minnesota could mortgage the future for a year and a half window.
The Twins find themselves in the curious position of being relevant before they expected. While relief help fills a need this season, it should be expected to benefit going forward (after all, internal options are thin at the moment). Going forward though, the Twins have more pressing needs at positions like shortstop and catcher than to be dealing for a boost in an odd area.
With plenty of time left in July, and more importantly games left to be played, things should sort themselves out on the field for Minnesota. If the Twins can keep winning and stay in the thick of the race, adding a lower cost relief option would be a necessary move. No matter how the situation shakes out though, making a big splash or dealing prized prospects likely won't (and shouldn't) be the plan of action.
You're Wrong About Brian Dozier, And So Is MLB
Just under a month ago, I told you that Brian Dozier is entering elite territory amongst Major League Baseball. Since that time, Dozier has done nothing but squash my silly notion. Instead of entering elite territory, he instead has defined what elite is amongst Major League Baseball. At this point, you're probably wrong about the Twins second basemen, and so is the league itself.
We are less than a week away from the midsummer classic. Major League Baseball has unfortunately pinned World Series implications on the exhibition, and while many players still overlook that sentiment, the fact is that this does count. Expecting fans voting solely for the biggest names or their favorite jerseys isn't going to draw rave results, but it's probably time Major League Baseball is held accountable.
As the fan voting took place for the All Star Game in Cincinnati this year, we watched as the Royals fans came out of the woodwork and make a mockery of the system. Even the Kauffman faithful had to find humor in the fact that their .231/.240/.307 slashing second basemen was pacing a portion of the voting. While it isn't unexpected to have snubs on the starting level, it's pretty ugly that manager Ned Yost failed to get it right as well.
Last season, the Minnesota Twins watched Brian Dozier blossom before their eyes. Going from a relative unknown, to one of the most surprising power hitters in the game, Dozier was given some national relevance in the Home Run Derby. While it was the consolation prize for an All Star appearance he was more than qualified for, it was a stepping stone.
After being amongst the best in the big leagues in runs scored, and securing a shiny new 4-year, $20 million contract, how would Dozier respond? The answer is by continuing to be the best second basemen in baseball and it's not particularly close. Dozier's 7.6 WAR since the beginning of 2014 ranks above all other qualifiers, and Houston's Jose Altuve is next closest with a 6.7 mark.
On the season, Dozier leads the big leagues in runs scored (63) and is on pace for career highs in doubles, triples, hits, home runs, runs batted in, batting average and OPS. In fact, it's actually that last number that might be most impressive when looking at the Twins second basemen.
Often times, detractors will point to Dozier's average as a reason why he shouldn't be regarded amongst the games best. Despite his .245 career mark (.260 in 2015), Brian Dozier's value at the plate goes far beyond the realm of simply second basemen.
With an .849 OPS, the Twins second basemen lays claim to the 15th best mark in all of baseball. Of those 14 players ahead of him, the only not to be named All-Stars; Alex Rodriguez (.902) and Brett Gardner (.854, also in the final vote). When adjusting for ballparks with OPS+, Dozier falls just one spot to 16th. Should you choose to disregard numerical focuses, players behind Dozier in OPS include Jose Abreu, Dustin Pedroia, and Adam Jones.
Bringing it back full circle to the context of the All Star Game, Dozier looks poised to be snubbed yet again in the Final Vote. Once again placing the duty on the fans, Dozier goes up against Xander Bogaerts, Yoenis Cespedes, Brett Gardener, and Mike Moustakas. If the initial vote was any indication as to how this Final Vote may go, the Royals Moustakas appears to have the edge.
Looking at Moustakas, the biggest Dozier detractors are forced to come full circle. After scuffling through the first four seasons of his career, Moustakas has put it together for Kansas City. He's got seven home runs, 31 RBI, and is slashing .301/.357/.436. That last bit of information is the most important however. Despite hitting .41 points higher than Dozier, Moustakas owns an OPS (.793) a stout .56 points lower.
It probably can't be made any clearer, Brian Dozier hitting for average absolutely, positively, does not matter. As long as he is getting on base, and generating extra base hits, the Twins second basemen will remain the best in baseball.
At the end of the day, or maybe better said, the first half of the Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier was failed. He may not care on the surface whether or not he was included in a meaningless* exhibition, but the fans failing to acknowledge him failed, Ned Yost failed, and Major League Baseball failed.
All Star Game aside, Brian Dozier continues to come to work, and get the job done. It's probably in all of our best interests to take notice sooner rather than later. Until then, he'll keep hitting walkoff shots and flipping his doubters the...bat.
We are less than a week away from the midsummer classic. Major League Baseball has unfortunately pinned World Series implications on the exhibition, and while many players still overlook that sentiment, the fact is that this does count. Expecting fans voting solely for the biggest names or their favorite jerseys isn't going to draw rave results, but it's probably time Major League Baseball is held accountable.
As the fan voting took place for the All Star Game in Cincinnati this year, we watched as the Royals fans came out of the woodwork and make a mockery of the system. Even the Kauffman faithful had to find humor in the fact that their .231/.240/.307 slashing second basemen was pacing a portion of the voting. While it isn't unexpected to have snubs on the starting level, it's pretty ugly that manager Ned Yost failed to get it right as well.
Last season, the Minnesota Twins watched Brian Dozier blossom before their eyes. Going from a relative unknown, to one of the most surprising power hitters in the game, Dozier was given some national relevance in the Home Run Derby. While it was the consolation prize for an All Star appearance he was more than qualified for, it was a stepping stone.
After being amongst the best in the big leagues in runs scored, and securing a shiny new 4-year, $20 million contract, how would Dozier respond? The answer is by continuing to be the best second basemen in baseball and it's not particularly close. Dozier's 7.6 WAR since the beginning of 2014 ranks above all other qualifiers, and Houston's Jose Altuve is next closest with a 6.7 mark.
On the season, Dozier leads the big leagues in runs scored (63) and is on pace for career highs in doubles, triples, hits, home runs, runs batted in, batting average and OPS. In fact, it's actually that last number that might be most impressive when looking at the Twins second basemen.
Often times, detractors will point to Dozier's average as a reason why he shouldn't be regarded amongst the games best. Despite his .245 career mark (.260 in 2015), Brian Dozier's value at the plate goes far beyond the realm of simply second basemen.
With an .849 OPS, the Twins second basemen lays claim to the 15th best mark in all of baseball. Of those 14 players ahead of him, the only not to be named All-Stars; Alex Rodriguez (.902) and Brett Gardner (.854, also in the final vote). When adjusting for ballparks with OPS+, Dozier falls just one spot to 16th. Should you choose to disregard numerical focuses, players behind Dozier in OPS include Jose Abreu, Dustin Pedroia, and Adam Jones.
Bringing it back full circle to the context of the All Star Game, Dozier looks poised to be snubbed yet again in the Final Vote. Once again placing the duty on the fans, Dozier goes up against Xander Bogaerts, Yoenis Cespedes, Brett Gardener, and Mike Moustakas. If the initial vote was any indication as to how this Final Vote may go, the Royals Moustakas appears to have the edge.
Looking at Moustakas, the biggest Dozier detractors are forced to come full circle. After scuffling through the first four seasons of his career, Moustakas has put it together for Kansas City. He's got seven home runs, 31 RBI, and is slashing .301/.357/.436. That last bit of information is the most important however. Despite hitting .41 points higher than Dozier, Moustakas owns an OPS (.793) a stout .56 points lower.
It probably can't be made any clearer, Brian Dozier hitting for average absolutely, positively, does not matter. As long as he is getting on base, and generating extra base hits, the Twins second basemen will remain the best in baseball.
At the end of the day, or maybe better said, the first half of the Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier was failed. He may not care on the surface whether or not he was included in a meaningless* exhibition, but the fans failing to acknowledge him failed, Ned Yost failed, and Major League Baseball failed.
All Star Game aside, Brian Dozier continues to come to work, and get the job done. It's probably in all of our best interests to take notice sooner rather than later. Until then, he'll keep hitting walkoff shots and flipping his doubters the...bat.
Monday, July 6, 2015
Puzzling Or Predictable: The Twins Bullpen Debacle
Over the weekend, Ervin Santana returned to the Twins starting rotation. After serving an 80 game PED-related suspension, the free agent acquisition came out of the gates strong. Twirling eight strong innings, Santana sat back and watched it all implode. Paul Molitor went to the bullpen, and his relievers let him down yet again.
Most recently, the suspects were Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson. In a tie game over the weekend, Molitor elected to give the ball to arms not named Glen Perkins. Of the two, Thompson has been especially bad this season. After starting relatively strong, he's come back to earth and now owns a 5.01 ERA.
Thompson is one of six Twins relievers this season to post an ERA north of 5.00. Alex Meyer's 16.88 ERA is easily dismissed with him only contributing 2.2 IP on the season. Caleb Thielbar also is in the group despite just throwing 5.0 innings for the big club. His 5.40 ERA looks worse however, considering he has struggled for much of the year at Triple-A.
Tim Stauffer and Michael Tonkin have also failed at the big league level this season. Minnesota offered Stauffer 15.0 innings of work, and multiple months of action before moving on from the free agent signee who posted a 6.60 mark in 13 games. Tonkin has spent more of the season moving back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues, but owns a 5.73 mark with the Twins. Rounding out the ugliness is Brian Duensing.
Duensing continues to get a pass, much like Stauffer before him. Minnesota took the lefty to arbitration this offseason and handed him a one-year $2.7 million deal. His 6.52 ERA is the worst on the current 25 man roster, and his 4.58 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests it won't get much better any time soon. For a guy owning 4.02 FIP and 6.0 K/9 marks, the Twins have given way too many chances.
Looking at who are the culprits behind the problems though, we have just identified the bigger problem. Excluding those already named, Molitor has just Glen Perkins, J.R. Graham, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly (now injured), and Blaine Boyer at his disposal.
Perkins is now doubt in the midst of the best season of his career. His 1.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and major league leading 27 saves have contributed to a 1.0 fWAR thus far. Unfortunately, Molitor can't only rely on Perkins out of the pen (even if he should have in Santana's first start).
Fien is a setup man, saved for the 8th inning. Even despite that, his 3.86 ERA and ugly 4.9 K/9 mark has led to some ugly blowups for the Twins this year. Graham has performed well, but is still getting just his first action above Double-A, and remains susceptible to vulnerability the more he is used. Boyer has no doubt worked out better than his ex-Padres teammate Stauffer, but Molitor has had to rely on him far too often. A 4.09 FIP suggests that the 2.63 ERA has plenty of room to rise.
With a bullpen full of uncertainty, and a closer that can only do so much, Molitor has had to get creative. Looking around the organization though, the pool is running empty. Tonkin and Thielbar have been afforded opportunities (albeit in short bursts). Triple-A Rochester offers little else unless tweener types like Logan Darnell (2.40 ERA AAA/7.13 ERA MLB career), Lester Oliveros (3.79 AAA/7.11 ERA MLB career), or A.J. Achter (2.15 AAA/3.27 MLB career) do anything for you.
The hope was that some of the Double-A bullpen would make its way to the big leagues in 2015. Since, Nick Burdi has been demoted to Fort Myers, Jake Reed has struggled mightily, Zack Jones has fallen off, and only recently promoted J.T. Chargois has excelled. It all adds up to the Twins being in a relatively difficult place.
While there may be potential answers in the future (with the hope that Tyler Jay would add to that equation), there doesn't appear to be any on the near horizon. The Twins have played above water most of the 2015 season, and while sustaining the roll would be nice, doing so without a competent bullpen is going to be quite the task.
In order to acquire a reliever capable of being more than a band-aid, teams will be asking for some of the Twins minor league depth. Knowing that bullpen options are few and far between, Minnesota may be best positioned to oblige and fix what appears to be a glaring problem. Right now, getting to the 9th inning with a lead provides all but a lock scenario. However, having only done that 27 times over the course of 82 games, Minnesota has left way too much on the table.
Most recently, the suspects were Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson. In a tie game over the weekend, Molitor elected to give the ball to arms not named Glen Perkins. Of the two, Thompson has been especially bad this season. After starting relatively strong, he's come back to earth and now owns a 5.01 ERA.
Thompson is one of six Twins relievers this season to post an ERA north of 5.00. Alex Meyer's 16.88 ERA is easily dismissed with him only contributing 2.2 IP on the season. Caleb Thielbar also is in the group despite just throwing 5.0 innings for the big club. His 5.40 ERA looks worse however, considering he has struggled for much of the year at Triple-A.
Tim Stauffer and Michael Tonkin have also failed at the big league level this season. Minnesota offered Stauffer 15.0 innings of work, and multiple months of action before moving on from the free agent signee who posted a 6.60 mark in 13 games. Tonkin has spent more of the season moving back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues, but owns a 5.73 mark with the Twins. Rounding out the ugliness is Brian Duensing.
Duensing continues to get a pass, much like Stauffer before him. Minnesota took the lefty to arbitration this offseason and handed him a one-year $2.7 million deal. His 6.52 ERA is the worst on the current 25 man roster, and his 4.58 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests it won't get much better any time soon. For a guy owning 4.02 FIP and 6.0 K/9 marks, the Twins have given way too many chances.
Looking at who are the culprits behind the problems though, we have just identified the bigger problem. Excluding those already named, Molitor has just Glen Perkins, J.R. Graham, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly (now injured), and Blaine Boyer at his disposal.
Perkins is now doubt in the midst of the best season of his career. His 1.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and major league leading 27 saves have contributed to a 1.0 fWAR thus far. Unfortunately, Molitor can't only rely on Perkins out of the pen (even if he should have in Santana's first start).
Fien is a setup man, saved for the 8th inning. Even despite that, his 3.86 ERA and ugly 4.9 K/9 mark has led to some ugly blowups for the Twins this year. Graham has performed well, but is still getting just his first action above Double-A, and remains susceptible to vulnerability the more he is used. Boyer has no doubt worked out better than his ex-Padres teammate Stauffer, but Molitor has had to rely on him far too often. A 4.09 FIP suggests that the 2.63 ERA has plenty of room to rise.
With a bullpen full of uncertainty, and a closer that can only do so much, Molitor has had to get creative. Looking around the organization though, the pool is running empty. Tonkin and Thielbar have been afforded opportunities (albeit in short bursts). Triple-A Rochester offers little else unless tweener types like Logan Darnell (2.40 ERA AAA/7.13 ERA MLB career), Lester Oliveros (3.79 AAA/7.11 ERA MLB career), or A.J. Achter (2.15 AAA/3.27 MLB career) do anything for you.
The hope was that some of the Double-A bullpen would make its way to the big leagues in 2015. Since, Nick Burdi has been demoted to Fort Myers, Jake Reed has struggled mightily, Zack Jones has fallen off, and only recently promoted J.T. Chargois has excelled. It all adds up to the Twins being in a relatively difficult place.
While there may be potential answers in the future (with the hope that Tyler Jay would add to that equation), there doesn't appear to be any on the near horizon. The Twins have played above water most of the 2015 season, and while sustaining the roll would be nice, doing so without a competent bullpen is going to be quite the task.
In order to acquire a reliever capable of being more than a band-aid, teams will be asking for some of the Twins minor league depth. Knowing that bullpen options are few and far between, Minnesota may be best positioned to oblige and fix what appears to be a glaring problem. Right now, getting to the 9th inning with a lead provides all but a lock scenario. However, having only done that 27 times over the course of 82 games, Minnesota has left way too much on the table.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Can't The Twins Just Play Where They Belong?
Following the conclusion of the 2014 Major League Baseball season, longtime Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire was shown the door. Although the four seasons of losing weren't all his fault, he did little to help the matter either. In his place, Paul Molitor took over. So far in 2015, results as a whole have been promising, but one area continues to be baffling.
Why can't Molitor and the Twins just be happy playing their position? The main culprit, the outfield.
Heading into the season, the Twins decided (as most major league teams do) to roll with a four man outfield. Jordan Schafer would start in center, flanked by Oswaldo Arcia in left and Torii Hunter in right. Shane Robinson would operate as the club's fourth outfielder. As a whole, that might have been one of the worst constructed outfields in recent memory, but that remains a different discussion.
Molitor then decided to leave Aaron Hicks down in Rochester to start the season, and that turned out to be as much of an erroneous decision as should have been expected. As far as emergency or utility type player, the Twins brought Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez all north. Here is where the problem begins.
Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield for the Twins, while Nunez and Santana have both played two a piece. In those games, the defense has been every bit as bad as you'd expect a player out of position to provide.
Escobar has a -1 DRS (defensive runs saved) rating, as well as a -3.0 YZR (ultimate zone rating). Santana and Nunez haven't spent enough innings to factor in yet in 2015, but Santana was far from adequate a year ago. In 534 innings in centerfield during the 2014 season, Santana compiled an ugly -5.4 UZR. Of the group, only Nunez doesn't post negative numbers.
Now forcing a player to be out of position on defense would almost exclusively have to suggest the offensive production is there. For the Twins though, that doesn't seem to be the case either. The most often played Escobar owns a poor .247/.281/.389 line, with Santana's .209/.233/.276 looking even uglier. In fact, only Nunez has shown a glimpse of offensive production with a .303/.346/.505 line.
There's no doubt that everything can't fall on Molitor and odd decision making though. After all, Jordan Schafer redefined terrible, and Robinson is no doubt limited. Byron Buxton was called up and made it through just 11 games before being shelved for a month, and Aaron Hicks was also shelved for a brief period of time. At this point though, the complacency to make a move hurts the Twins.
Already having suffered through poor outfield defense for much of the year, the Twins have shown little urgency to rectify the problem when the opportunity presents itself. The latest example revolves around Santana and Hicks.
Now having played a handful of rehab games for Rochester, the Twins should have had Hicks on a plane back to join the big club at the first opportunity. With Santana overmatched at the plate, and a struggling outfielder, Hicks should be claiming his role. On top of that, Molitor had to lift Robinson after getting hit by a pitch, calling into question what his availability looks like.
It's really rather unfair to point to the problem as a whole through the eyes of one or two examples. However, the fact that Eduardo Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield this year is a big enough issue. Showing an affinity to giving innings in the grass to players like Nunez and Santana on top of it only complicates things.
Save Nunez for playing shortstop and giving guys around the infield a day off, and use your position players where they fit. When someone is hitting .319 with a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), it makes sense to push a square peg into a round hole. When a guy has a paltry OPS and is doing nothing for you offensively, stop trying to over think it.
Why can't Molitor and the Twins just be happy playing their position? The main culprit, the outfield.
Heading into the season, the Twins decided (as most major league teams do) to roll with a four man outfield. Jordan Schafer would start in center, flanked by Oswaldo Arcia in left and Torii Hunter in right. Shane Robinson would operate as the club's fourth outfielder. As a whole, that might have been one of the worst constructed outfields in recent memory, but that remains a different discussion.
Molitor then decided to leave Aaron Hicks down in Rochester to start the season, and that turned out to be as much of an erroneous decision as should have been expected. As far as emergency or utility type player, the Twins brought Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez all north. Here is where the problem begins.
Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield for the Twins, while Nunez and Santana have both played two a piece. In those games, the defense has been every bit as bad as you'd expect a player out of position to provide.
Escobar has a -1 DRS (defensive runs saved) rating, as well as a -3.0 YZR (ultimate zone rating). Santana and Nunez haven't spent enough innings to factor in yet in 2015, but Santana was far from adequate a year ago. In 534 innings in centerfield during the 2014 season, Santana compiled an ugly -5.4 UZR. Of the group, only Nunez doesn't post negative numbers.
Now forcing a player to be out of position on defense would almost exclusively have to suggest the offensive production is there. For the Twins though, that doesn't seem to be the case either. The most often played Escobar owns a poor .247/.281/.389 line, with Santana's .209/.233/.276 looking even uglier. In fact, only Nunez has shown a glimpse of offensive production with a .303/.346/.505 line.
There's no doubt that everything can't fall on Molitor and odd decision making though. After all, Jordan Schafer redefined terrible, and Robinson is no doubt limited. Byron Buxton was called up and made it through just 11 games before being shelved for a month, and Aaron Hicks was also shelved for a brief period of time. At this point though, the complacency to make a move hurts the Twins.
Already having suffered through poor outfield defense for much of the year, the Twins have shown little urgency to rectify the problem when the opportunity presents itself. The latest example revolves around Santana and Hicks.
Now having played a handful of rehab games for Rochester, the Twins should have had Hicks on a plane back to join the big club at the first opportunity. With Santana overmatched at the plate, and a struggling outfielder, Hicks should be claiming his role. On top of that, Molitor had to lift Robinson after getting hit by a pitch, calling into question what his availability looks like.
It's really rather unfair to point to the problem as a whole through the eyes of one or two examples. However, the fact that Eduardo Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield this year is a big enough issue. Showing an affinity to giving innings in the grass to players like Nunez and Santana on top of it only complicates things.
Save Nunez for playing shortstop and giving guys around the infield a day off, and use your position players where they fit. When someone is hitting .319 with a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), it makes sense to push a square peg into a round hole. When a guy has a paltry OPS and is doing nothing for you offensively, stop trying to over think it.
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