Playoff Season Is Here: So Who Wins?

After 162 games, the Major League Baseball regular season is in the books. We are to the point where this is what every team is playing for throughout the season. October baseball, and a run to the World Series title. While the Twins ended up falling just short, while keeping things interesting in 2015, the field is plenty loaded this season.

Looking at both of the American League and National League sides of things, here's what I have for October baseball:

AL Wild Card

Despite the fade at the end, and the eventual slide out of the AL West lead, the Houston Astros find themselves in the postseason. Taking on the New York Yankees in a one-game winner move on matchup, it's Dallas Keuchel against Masahiro Tanaka.

The Yankees have seemed to hang aroudn for more than I believe they should have most of the season, and Houston's offense should give Tanaka plenty of problems. Forget what Keuchel has done on the road, he's got the upper hand here. Give me Houston over New York.

AL Division Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Texas Rangers

Hard to argue with the best team in baseball post All Star Break. The Blue Jays went for it in grabbing big names at the deadline, and the offense should be plenty to get it done against somewhat of a lackluster Rangers pitching staff. If it isn't, there's always David Price and Marcus Stroman to answer to.

Kansas City Royals over Houston Astros

The Royals faded down the stretch, and that's not the ideal way to close out a regular season. However, there may not be a more complete team in baseball. The Astros get to the division series, but the run ends there. Too much pitching, too good of a defense, and an offense that can get it done. The Royals advance.

AL Championship Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Kansas City Royals

Home field or not, Toronto remains the best team in the big leagues right now. Again, not one-sided, they have enough to get it done both offensively and on the mound. Not the Cinderella the Royals were a season ago, the Blue Jays take their favorite tag and run with it.

NL Wild Card

Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates

Gerrit Cole is lights out against the Cubs at home, but Jake Arrieta is lights out against everyone everywhere. My NL Cy Young runner up carries the Cubs in the one game playoff, and the offense of youth scores enough to move on.

NL Division Series

New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers

This series is going to be interesting with the Dodgers all but guaranteed the first two games behind Kershaw and Greinke. Despite an ugly end to the year, look for the Mets offense to wake back up, and their pitching to compete as well. I think this series goes five games, but give me the Mets in a close call.

Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals

Injuries at the wrong time, and pitching missing some important arms, it's an imperfect disaster for the Cardinals. The Cubs were scorching to end the regular season, and there's no reason to think Joe Maddon's club is stopping any time soon. Give me Theo's kids here.

NL Championship Series

Chicago Cubs over New York Mets

With all intentions of ending the World Series drought after getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2008, Chicago will come in guns blazing. After surviving two series already, Joe Maddon's team will be well prepared for Terry Collins and the Mets. With Matt Harvey's availability likely in question at this point, and Arrieta expected to be rolling, the Cubs get back to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

World Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago Cubs

David vs. Goliath of sorts, the Blue Jays enter as the favorite with the Cubs the team unexpected in this spot. While Chicago should give Toronto a challenge, the Blue Jays should continue to be too much. Behind Josh Donaldson and an impressive offense, along with a formidable pitching staff, the deadline moves pay off north of the border. Give me the Blue Jays winning their third World Series and first since 1993.

The Unfortunate Half Of It- Dozier And Perk Do It Again

By all respective measures, the Minnesota Twins 2015 season has come to an end. Despite a very exciting month of September, and a Wild Card playoff chase that gave Twins Territorians something to tune into, Paul Molitor's squad has reached the end. While 2015 is no doubt a resounding success given the expectations, it remains 2016 that is Minnesota's goal. Unfortunately, two massive question marks remain.

Going into 2016, the Twins roster will prominently feature a handful of high ceiling and widely talented youngsters. Beyond Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, there will be contributions expected from many others. At the top though, it will be the Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier types that are once again expected to carry that squad. The problem is, the task may be more than they can handle.

For the second year in a row, both Perkins and Dozier went from two of the Twins best players, to some of their absolute worst.

In the first half of the season, Dozier looked the part of an MVP candidate. Prior to the break, the first time All Star slashed .256/.328/.513 with 26 doubles, 19 home runs, 50 runs batted in, and 67 runs scored. The second half being a different story, Dozier slashed just .209/.280/.361 adding just 13 doubles, nine homers, 26 runs batted in, and 34 runs. To say he had fallen off would be putting it lightly.

The tale of two seasons for Dozier was widely apparent in his ever increasing strikeout rate. Being a high on base percentage player, his lower batting average never should have been questioned. In 2015 though, it became a problem. Having never struck out more than 129 times in a season, Dozier's new Twins record of 147 strikeouts (and counting), combined with just 61 walks, became a problem. Whether conditioning is to blame or not, for a second straight year, the star second basemen put together only one complete half.

And then there's Perkins.

Unlike Dozier, Perkins can more easily have outcomes directly tied to him. In the first half, he was flawless. Saving 28 straight games while compiling a 1.21 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a paltry .188/.217/.246 slash line, the Minnesota native secured a second straight All Star game appearance. That's when everything went south.

In his first post All Star appearance, Perkins took his first blown save of the season (and inevitable probability). However, on July 25 against the Yankees, he served up home runs to Alex Rodriguez (his third of the night) and John Ryan Murphy, in a game that would be the turning point in his 2015. From the break on, Perkins saved just four games, blew three, and owned a 7.32 ERA. Opposing hitters relished at the opportunity to hit against a guy allowing a .360/.394/.674 slash line.

Looking back as the Twins will miss the playoffs by just a few games, it was Perkins direct influence in the ninth that could have them in a different place. In a team game with the outcome determine at multiple different points, that's not a load Perkins should shoulder on his own, but it's one he did nothing to help. Spending time recovering from injury, the Twins closer came back ineffective and a detriment to the club.

Hoping Molitor would do something different is somewhat of a tricky situation. In regards to Dozier, the direct tie to wins and losses is not apparent. He gave the Twins little at the plate down the stretch, but remained an asset in the field. Hoping the slump would be busted eventually, he needed to be out there every night. With Perkins, the story is much different. The ineffectiveness was apparent for quite some time, and even worse when returning from injury. Shutting him down weeks before the season's end could have spared Minnesota a few desperately needed victories.

For the second year in a row, both players faded down the stretch. Last offseason, Dozier vowed to work on conditioning to hopefully stave off this exact outcome. For Perkins, the future remains murkier. When at his best, he's an elite closer and among the top in the American League. On Friday night, he was at his worst, cost the Twins their final opportunity, and then lacked the leadership to own it in the clubhouse following the final pitch.

In 2016, Paul Molitor and the Twins will have to count on both players to be key contributors once again, the question remains, will he be able to?

Duffey Puts A Bow On An Impressive Debut

2015 was supposed to be and has been the year of the prospect for the Minnesota Twins. Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler have all made their big league debuts. In one of the most impressive farm systems in all of baseball, the Twins had plenty of big names to bring to Target Field. It has been Tyler Duffey however, that has been arguably the most impressive of them all.

With young pitching talents like Trevor May and Alex Meyer being highly touted, and Jose Berrios being highly anticipated, it's been Duffey who has somewhat flown under the radar. The Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts opening day starter in 2015 (over Berrios), made quick work of the minor leagues this season. Debuting with the Twins on August 5, his time had quickly come.

After a rocky first outing against baseball's best offense in the Toronto Blue Jays, Duffey has been nothing short of spectacular since. Across his final nine starts, Duffey owned a 5-0 record with the Twins winnings eight of those nine games. Duffey's ERA was a glowing 2.25 and he held opposing hitters to a .244/.304/.349 slash line. His 8.4 K/9 was best among Twins starters, and he struck out more than seven batters five times in nine outings.

Pushing his innings further than any other point in his career, Duffey was reliable for Molitor's squad as well. He went more than six innings in all but two of his final nine starts, and he pitched into the seventh twice. The final three trips to the mound saw Duffey throw 101, 112, and 102 pitches respectively.

In his first time at the big league level, it's looked every bit like Duffey can hold his own. His 3.24 FIP suggests his 3.10 ERA is substantiated. He's given up hard hit contact just 24.9% of the time while inducing ground balls 49.7% of the time. Duffey has surrendered line drives just 19.4% of the time, and has given up only four home runs across 59 innings.

Then there's the effectiveness of his curveball. Duffey has twirled his spinner 39.1% of the time this season, and while that number is high, it's because it's been really good. Across all of his pitches, Duffey has induced swings at pitches outside of the strike zone 34.2% of the time, and has benefited from swinging strikes 9.8% of the time.

As a whole, it's pretty hard to quantify Tyler Duffey's 2015 season as anything but a smashing success. While he doesn't get the praise that some other top pitching prospects do, he's earned the recognition all on his own in his first experience at the big league level. I'm not positive Duffey starts in the rotation for the 2016 Twins, but he's made a very compelling argument for himself.

After seeing Duffey's success this season, Jose Berrios has to be salivating at his upcoming opportunity in the year ahead. The Twins pairing the two together in the rotation for years to come would be an ideal scenario, and so far, the plan is being executed flawlessly.

The Twins, Then And Now

The Twins are in the midst of a heated race for the final AL Wild Card spot, and while they are running out of games, getting to this point has been a heck of a journey. Having suffered through four straight 90 loss campaigns, being back on the positive side of things is a nice change. Winning isn't new to this franchise however, and the most interesting aspect may be just how the winning takes place.

2010 saw the Twins compile a 94-68 record under Ron Gardenhire, good enough for first in the AL Central. Fueled by an incredible 48-26 in the second half, that club rolled into the playoffs with momentum on their side. The record wasn't the only difference though, as Gardenhire's 25 was of a different breed as well.

Valued in order by fWAR, the 2010 Twins were led by Joe Mauer (5.0), Justin Morneau (4.9), Jim Thome (3.0), Orlando Hudson (3.0), and Denard Span (2.6). In total, 11 offensive players have fWAR seasons above 1.0. The rotation was filled out by five double-digit game winners in Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey, and Gardenhire had a capable pen.

Looking at the construction of the roster as a whole, that team was filled by a handful of veterans performing in or after their prime. Thome brought spark to the Twins while Mauer and Morneau carried the club. Span and Hudson remained assets, and the playoffs were made as an execution of the expectations laid out prior to the season.

Fast forward to where we are now. This Twins club currently has 82 wins, with just four games left. By fWAR, the club's top performers are Brian Dozier (3.6), Trevor Plouffe (2.4), Eddie Rosario (2.3), Miguel Sano (2.2), and Aaron Hicks (1.5). On the season, the 2015 Twins have just seven players with fWAR totals over 1.0 (which would add just Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez to the fold). Among the final rotation, only two pitchers (Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes) have double digit win totals.

There's little room for argument that the current Twins squad holds a candle to the one that last made the playoffs. Forget the fact that the playoffs aren't yet a reality, and 90 wins certainly won't be. The talent discrepancy between the two squads is apparent on paper alone. What is also very simple to see however, is what was and is next for both teams.

Four years of turmoil came out of the last playoff squad, with the most likely outcome this time around being at least four years of playoff runs. A younger organization filled with high profile prospects trending in the right direction is generally a recipe for good things to come. Comparing directly doesn't do wonders for this team, but there's no doubt it owns the edge in the future trends category.

It's easy to see the Twins current team and the one from the last playoff run aren't in the same boat, but there's little doubt this one is going places soon. Knowing how much fun this run has been, and that it's just the tip of the iceberg, it's best to enjoy what was, and be excited about what will be.

In 2015, He's The Most Valuable Twin

While there's a few games left in the Minnesota Twins 2015 campaign, we are now at a point in which we can look back and dissect how we arrived here. To be clear, here is a point that hasn't been reached in four years. It's 81+ wins, a .500+ record, a winning team, and an expectation of positive seasons ahead. Although Paul Molitor has been at the helm, it's been these players that have paved the way.

To quantify a team MVP for the Twins season is a much more difficult task than would be imagined. Considering there has been two lone winning months, and a handful of first or second half type performers, and players that have step up at the most important times, it is far from cut and dry. In an effort to recognize those deemed worthy, a top five seems the most effective route to take. Don't worry though, number one will get his due.

5. Kevin Jepsen

Somewhat of an interesting inclusion no doubt, but knowing where the Twins are now, they would not be there without the deadline acquisition of the former Rays reliever. Since joining the Twins, Jepsen has pitched in 27 games, owns a 1.73 ERA and a 2.68 FIP. He's struck out 8.0 batters per nine innings, and he's saved nine games for the Twins.

Glen Perkins had an amazing first half for the Twins, but he's been non-existent down the stretch. Jepsen came over in hopes of bridging to Perkins, but has instead shouldered the entire load on his own. Taking on the closer role, it has been Jepsen that has helped to save the bullpen from the train wreck it had become.

4. Eduardo Escobar

Before the season began, it looked as though Danny Santana was the deserving recipient of the starting shortstop gig. Forget the fact that regression was going to set in, Escobar seemed best suited to a utility role. 122 games of production later, Escobar owns a .759 OPS, has launched a career high 12 home runs, and has compiled a 1.3 fWAR making any notions of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly.

With the Twins having more questions than answers at shortstop during points throughout 2015, Escobar has inserted himself into the heart of the discussion. He looks capable of holding down the gig going forward, and his late season surge has helped to keep the Twins on track in the midst of a Wild Card chase.

3. Miguel Sano

Given just under half a season to make a big league impact, Sano has done just that. In his time with the Twins, he has hit 17 home runs, the same amount of doubles, 51 runs batted in, batted .275, and compiled a .935 OPS. Forget the fact that he strikes out at an astronomical rate, his 45.6 hard hit rate is among the best in baseball, and he has tormented big league pitchers to the tune of a 2.1 fWAR earned solely at the plate.

Sano's full season numbers would likely have him in the league MVP discussion as much as they would have him running away with it for the Twins. Just 22 years old, he has entrenched himself as a cornerstone of the future, and 2015 was able to provide just a small glimpse of what is to come.

2. Trevor Plouffe

The Twins third basemen has followed up a breakout 2014 campaign with more of the same. After looking like a solid third base option a year ago, Plouffe has continued to do it on both sides of the game once again. His 22 homers are just two away from a career best, and his 84 runs batted in are a new career high. He also has set career bests in games played, runs, hits, and triples this season. On the defensive side, he's played as a league average fielder, and remains vastly improved over the shell of a hot corner defender that he was just a few years ago.

As I've continued to suggest all season, Plouffe should (and likely will) remain in the Twins plans going forward. An extension seems better served than a trade, and enjoying his late-blooming prime in a Twins uniform is something Paul Molitor could likely get used to.

1. Brian Dozier

In the first half of 2015, Brian Dozier looked every bit the frontrunner for the American League MVP. After his first All Star Game appearance, that narrative has changed, but his importance to the Twins has not. Pacing the club with a 3.8 fWAR, Dozier has produced across the board. The 28 year-old has set new career highs in hits, doubles, home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage, and OPS. In year one of the new deal, he's given Minnesota every bit of value out of his 4 year, $20 million extension.

No doubt, Dozier's second half struggles have once again been a disappointment to what otherwise was trending towards a remarkable season. However, in 2015, the power numbers have kept up, and while it's been the strikeouts that have spiked, the greater whole has been something Twins Territory has not seen for far too long. With the addition of youth coming, and Brian Dozier pacing the pack, the Twins are in a good place as they look towards the future.

Thank You For 2015 Mike Pelfrey

Now owners of the first winning season for the Twins franchise since 2010, Paul Molitor and the guys have had a very successful 2015 campaign. There's been rookies introduced, milestones reached, and even a 40 year old man competing at a very high level over the last month of the season. What there has also been, is a pitcher that is generally the butt of all jokes, giving Minnesota exactly what they've needed.

For that, thank you Mike Pelfrey.

Before the season began, Twins fans no doubt would be thanking Mike Pelfrey that the Pohlad's were only shelling out $5.5 million for his services this season (a very modest amount for a major league starting pitcher). They would be thanking him for this being the end of his three year run with the organization. Thankfulness would be shed on the fact that his departure would open the door for someone else to come take over. However, now with the season coming to an end, Pelfrey should be thanked for all of unexpected contributions he provided this winning ballclub.

Full disclosure, calling any contributions at the big league level probably isn't fair. You're being paid millions to go out and compete, your team expects that to happen at a level that puts them in position to win. However, with Pelfrey having ERA's of 5.19 and 7.99 in his past two season respectively, the expectations were no doubt going to be lowered.

Initially asked to pitch out of the bullpen prior to Ervin Santana's PED suspension, Pelfrey warmly accepted his assignment the Scott Boras climate was quick to voice his unhappiness. After all, he wasn't going to welcome the chance to leave money on the table heading into free agency (even if I am of the belief he has very good to elite relief potential). Regardless of how it took place however, Pelfrey was going to start, and that is exactly what he has done.

Making 29 starts for the Twins (with one remaining as of this writing), Pelfrey compiled a 4.09 ERA, the second best mark of his career. His 3.99 FIP (fielding independent pitching) tally is the third best total over his 10 seasons, and his 0.6 HR/9 leads the big leagues. He gave the Twins 163.0 IP (second on the club behind Kyle Gibson), while walking a career low 2.4 batters per nine innings. He will set a new career best walk total (currently 43) and likely will give up less than 200 hits for just the second time over the course of a full season. In short, Mike Pelfrey has been everything the Twins have needed at the back end of their rotation.

Although sometimes seen as a dangerous starter, and notably someone who hasn't gone as deep as would be hoped in games, the narrative goes the other way as well. He has given up two earned runs or less in 17 of his 29 starts, while pitching into the 7th inning or later in 10 starts. Compiling a 2.0 fWAR for Minnesota, he'll post the third best mark of his career.

One of the biggest obstacles for Pelfrey as a Twin has been his health. In 2015, he has thrown more than 100 pitches in 10 starts, staying healthy for the first time. The health boost has been noticeable in his ability as well. With an average fastball velocity of 93mph (2nd highest of career and best since 2007), as well as a sinker averaging 93.3 mph (3rd highest of career, best since 2012, Pelfrey's effectiveness has been no doubt boosted.

Following the final week of the season, Pelfrey will ride off into the sunset. Most Twins fans will still struggle with the undeniable tie Pelfrey has to injuries and ineffectiveness during his tenure here. However, in a season where the Twins came out of nowhere, it was Pelfrey that held things down every 5th day.

Knowing there's prospects on the way to take his place helps to ease the transition. The Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer's of the world are going to raise the floor of what the Twins expect a 5th starter to be. For 2015 though, it was Mike Pelfrey that did the job, and did so at a very respectable level.

Buxton's September More Important Than Good

The Minnesota Twins are playing meaningful baseball. It isn't only September first, but rather the end of the month, with only a handful of games left, and each carrying the utmost importance. Things are great for Paul Molitor's squad right now, and while the success benefits the team, the benefit for Byron Buxton has been huge as well.

Baseball's top prospect has played in 41 games at the big league level for the Twins this year. He's got 129 plate appearances and is slashing .207/.244/.306 in that time. So far, Buxton has seven doubles, one triple, and his first big league home run to his name. On the surface none of those numbers jumps off the page.

If you'd like to dig a little deeper, things have been better of late. Spared starts down the stretch with the playoffs on the line, Buxton hasn't gotten regular action. When he has gotten them though, he's made them count. In his last three starts dating back to September 15, Buxton is 4-9 (.444) with three runs, two RBI, two doubles, and his first big league home run. Sure, it's a tiny sample size, but it's also a nice boost.

That brings us to where Buxton is in his development, and just how important September has been to the Twins future centerfielder.

With Minnesota in the midst of a playoff race, and Buxton in the dugout every day, even when he isn't being asked to produce, he's growing. Although the Twins would have no doubt liked to see Buxton with a slash line more reflective of fellow rookies Eddie Rosario or Miguel Sano, September will go down to be an important part of the future stars development.

Knowing that centerfield will be his for years to come, Minnesota, Terry Ryan, and Molitor have afforded Buxton a huge opportunity to end this season. With big games on the line, Buxton has prepared every day to compete and contribute. Knowing that 2016 is going to be the point in which he's asked to carry a heavier load, and be playing in meaningful September games, it's now that the 21 year old finds his launching point.

The "important" numbers say that Buxton has hit a paltry .200/.238/.350 with just four extra base hits during the month of September. Really though, the more important numbers for the young phenom include 20 games played, 12 starts, 43 plate appearances, and 115 innings. Racking up vital time on the diamond during the season's most important moments will only help to push the ceiling during the early weeks of the 2016 season.

Not all prospects get the added value that comes with the timeline Buxton has been afforded. Aaron Hicks was the latest to be thrown into the fire, and it took him a while to catch up. Because of where the Twins are, Buxton's September has been incredibly important, even if the numbers say it hasn't been all that good.