Coincidentally I am writing this on the exact same date I suggested a similar result last year. The Minnesota Twins have not effectively
developed a starting pitcher in quite some time, and with Jose Berrios being
the best thing to happen in that period, locking him up long term makes some
sense.
Last year the suggestion came on the heels of extensions for
the Phillies Aaron Nola and Yankees Luis Severino. Those were both four-year
extensions and paid $45 and $40 million apiece respectively. Going into 2021 Berrios
is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. For 2021 he’ll pitch
for $5.6 million, just over a $1.5 million increase from his 2020 salary. With
a final year of arbitration eligibility in 2022, he should see a number get
very near the $10 million mark.
Coming off somewhat of a down season, Berrios posted a 4.00
ERA for the first time in his career. It was just a 12-game sample size and the
5.92 ERA through his first five turns really did him in. From that point he
posted a 2.79 ERA across 38.2 IP and allowed opposing batters just a .598 OPS
the final seven times he took the mound.
Over the past few seasons velocity has been a chief concern
regarding Berrios’ output. Having focused on an offseason training regimen that
builds endurance to withstand the rigors of a full season, Minnesota had keyed
in on their Puerto Rican starter being able to avoid his August and September
swoon. We never got to see that in action during 2020 due to the truncated
season, but the 9.7 K/9 was a career high, and a 94.9 mph average fastball
velocity also topped the charts.
Jose is still just 26 years old and will turn 27 shortly
after the 2021 campaign gets underway. He should just now be entering his
prime, and looking for him to take another step forward remains a key focus for
the Twins. If that should happen, he could find himself among the Cy Young conversation
for the first time in his career, and knocking on the door of a big payday,
that’s hardly a bad resume builder.
Minnesota has recently locked up Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler,
and Miguel Sano. Although there’s been suggestion of a slightly decreased
payroll, future cost certainty is always of importance to organizations, and
Berrios provides a very compelling opportunity. Both Kepler and Polanco took
what appear to be team friendly deals. The Twins had to rebuild some favor with
Jose and did so in the form of a $500k incentive this offseason. Maybe there’s
a middle ground where the two sides can hammer out something more substantial.
Even if Jose Berrios never develops into a bonafide ace for
the Twins, pitchers of his caliber don’t come around too often, and he’s going
to get paid handsomely on the open market. If there’s a way for Derek Falvey
and Thad Levine to keep him around long time, exploring that option this
offseason makes a good deal of sense.
