Showing posts with label Aaron Hicks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Hicks. Show all posts

Friday, October 2, 2020

Cheering Twins on from Afar this Postseason

 


Wednesday was about as ugly as it gets. After giving away the game to Houston on Tuesday, Minnesota watched their Postseason hopes go up in flames, for an 18th consecutive loss. Now out of the end-of-season-tournament, how can we put a Twins spin on the great baseball action still left?

 

If you missed what the San Diego Padres did yesterday afternoon and into the evening, that’s really too bad. It’s performances like those that define October baseball. The Twins are out of it, and so are countless other teams. In fact, the entirety of the AL Central is now eliminated. That doesn’t mean there aren’t avenues to pull for guys that once made an impact in a Minnesota uniform.

 

Ryan Pressly – Houston Astros

 

This one is tough personally because Ryan and his wife Kat are people I’ve gotten to know. They are both awesome individuals, and Ryan evolving into one of the game’s best relievers has been fun to see. Watching him take his abilities to a whole new level in embracing different techniques in Houston was also exciting. The downside is that he’s teammates with Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve. I can get past them having just beaten the Twins, and I can even move on from the fact that those guys cheated so substantially. What rubs me the wrong way is that the trio remains brazen, unapologetic, and completely aloof when it comes to their public perception. Ryan, go shove, but the rest of the Astros can shove it.

 

Liam Hendriks and Robbie Grossman – Oakland Athletics

 

Hendriks is hardly a secret anymore. He’s been one of baseball’s best relievers for a number of years, and some new hardware should be coming his way for the performance in 2020. Recently fresh off defeating the Chicago White Sox, there’s plenty to like about that outcome as well. Grossman went from a disaster year defensively with the Twins to a complete turnaround and one of the better glue guys in baseball. He’s not a household name, and while he’s always going to be an OBP-guru, he’ll never rack up the accolades. Both are extremely easy to root for, however. Go Athletics!

 

Aaron Hicks – New York Yankees

 

It’ll be a cold day in hell before I every cheer for the Yankees in a baseball game. That said, former top prospect Aaron Hicks remains among my favorite to follow around the game. He’s been great with New York when healthy, and although it crushed the Twins, the diving catch he made to steal a game winning hit from Max Kepler last summer was nothing short of amazing. Go Aaron, boo Yankees.

 

Nick Anderson – Tampa Bay Rays

 

A first-class organization is always easy to pull for, and the Rays are in the driver’s seat this season as a one seed. Nick Anderson is someone I touch on constantly through Twitter as it still irks me that Derek Falvey let this one get away. The former Twins prospect was tearing up Triple-A and was never given a chance to even flash his stuff at the big-league level. Instead he’s gone on to become one of the nastiest relievers in all of baseball. He’s a Minnesota native, and would’ve looked great in the Twins baby blues. Hopefully, he’s part of a Rays squad that downs the Evil Empire.

 

Brandon Kintzler – Miami Marlins

 

What a season it has been for this team. They needed to basically reconstruct an entire roster just days into an already weird year, and then made the Postseason despite being expected to perform as somewhat of a bottom feeder. Kintzler closed out games for the Twins a couple of years ago and is now doing the same for Miami. He was under-appreciated here and always seemed like a good due. Certainly not going to blow the ball by anyone, but he can serve up ground balls with the best of them. This is a Cinderella story I can get behind.

 

Brusdar Graterol – Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Kenta Maeda came over to the Twins and performed like an absolute ace. There’s nothing wrong with both teams benefitting from a good trade, and it seems like that’s what at play here. Minnesota’s former top pitching prospect closed out a series win following Clayton Kershaw last night. He throws 100 and is always smiling. The Bazooka is a level-headed kid that’s going to see plenty more success. The Dodgers are the favorites, and with good reason. If you want to get behind a near sure thing, this is your team.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Twins Get Their Catcher

As they have done most of the offseason, the Twins have kept their decisions close to their vest. Despite not seemingly having an opening. the club won the bid for Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park earlier this week. Now they have solidified their catching prospects going forward. In parting with former first round pick Aaron Hicks, Minnesota has acquired John Ryan Murphy from the New York Yankees.

Hicks scuffled with the Twins in his first two seasons after being promoted following the trades of Denard Span and Ben Revere. In 2015, he broke out to the tune of a .256/.323/.398 average. While he still struggled as a switch hitter, Hicks hit lefties very well. On the year, he posted career highs in games player, hits, runs, homers, runs batted in, and stolen bases.

With the Twins having plenty of youth to fill the outfield, Hicks became the odd man out. He will take his cannon arm to Yankee Stadium, and look to play alongside Jacoby Ellsbury. In turn, the Twins receive 24 year-old John Ryan Murphy.

Murphy initially debuted in 2013 with the Yankees at the age of 22. He's now played in 115 big league games, getting into 67 a season ago. With the Yankees last year, Murphy slashed .277/.327/.406 with three homers and 14 runs batter in. He added nine doubles and one triple as well. Behind the plate though is where Murphy should make the biggest impact for the Twins.

After Kurt Suzuki through out an MLB worst 15% of would be base stealers in 2015, Murhpy caught 28% of them. He also allowed just seven passed balls in 416 chances. In his 415.1 IP with the Yankees last season, Murphy added 24 assists as well. With a similar path as Hicks, Murphy was a high draft pick (2nd round in 2009) out of high school. He has six seasons of minor league experience under his belt and has slashed .263/.327/.406 across that timeframe.

There's still plenty of reason to believe that Murphy has not yet maxed out his potential. While he has a ways to go to be considered a significant contributor at the big league level, the Twins addressed an absolute need. Hicks was part of a roster crunch, and with the Twins finding a one-for-one swap, the deal should benefit both sides.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Torii Hunter's Departure Ushers In New Twins Outfield

Torii Hunter has officially announced his retirement from baseball. For fans around Twins Territory, this should come with mixed emotions. While Hunter was a player beloved by many, he was an aging player well past his prime. Now with the Twins set to move on, they can focus on crafting their outfield for the future. What exactly does that look like however?

In 2015, Hunter started 121 games in right field for the Twins. He contributed 1,035 innings, made 231 putouts, and added six outfield assists. On the offensive side of things, the fan favorite slashed .240/.293/.409 with 22 homers and 81 runs batted in. From a top down view, that's what the Twins are looking to replace. Broadening the scope though, there's some other factors at play with Hunter's departure.

As an outfield, Hunter has been a liability for some time now. He made a career high five errors, and had the second lowest fielding percentage (.979) of his 19 year career. Looking into the advanced metrics, the Arkansas native was worth -8 defensive runs saved this past season, and he owned a lackluster 0.3 ultimate zone rating. To summarize, Torii Hunter the outfielder is addition by subtraction for the Twins.

Going into 2016, the assume outfield configuration (or at least the one for the bulk of the season), should be Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks from left to right. It wouldn't be surprising to see Buxton start at Triple-A, but he'll likely spend 75% of his season with the Twins. Despite having those three locked in, Minnesota has been afforded some other options with Hunter's retirement.

While Hicks has the ability to be a 20/20 guy if he can build of his impressive 2015, Rosario and Buxton are tougher to project. Buxton could still face some growing pains, and Rosario's free swinging tendencies make him a prime candidate to face some regression. With that in mind, the focus turns to who's behind the main three.

On what is almost assuredly his final chance, Oswaldo Arcia will need to impress. The defensively lacking outfielder didn't contribute anything significant to the Twins in 2015. Despite a hot homer stretch at Triple-A, his final average was actually below the Mendoza Line. However, Arcia is just a year removed from a 20 homer season at the big league level. Out of options in 2016, Arcia will be given every opportunity to turn the corner.

After Arcia, it's another intriguing prospect, and the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year, Max Kepler. 23 next season, Kepler broke out big time in 2015. He slashed .318/.410/.520 spending 112 games with Double-A Chattanooga. With nine homers, and 13 triples, Kepler's power and speed combination is exciting. Having gotten a cup of coffee to end the 2015 season, there's no doubt the German wants to be at the big league level for good.

By retiring, Hunter likely saved the Twins from themselves. After playing on a one-year, $10.5 million deal in 2015, a similar situation was going to play out in 2016 had he wanted to return (likely for less money). Instead, Minnesota is afforded an open roster spot, and the position to integrate the talented youth providing outfield depth.

Going into the 2015 season, the Twins had far from a sure thing in Hicks, and Rosario (despite a strong spring) wasn't yet ready for the big time. Hunter manned the outfield with the likes of Arcia and vets Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson. This time around, it's the kids time to run with it. Behind the main three, both Arcia or Kepler can be included among the 25 man to round out the outfield grouping. Should Buxton start on the farm, it'll be Arcia in right with the 4th spot up for grabs.

At the end of the day, Minnesota has plenty of options to pick up where Hunter left off. Almost all of them provide a net gain in being better defensive fits, and the offensive ceiling should only be pushed as time goes on. Although the Torii Hunter era has ended, it's the best case scenario for Minnesota, and Paul Molitor has plenty of weapons at his disposal.

Monday, August 17, 2015

Optimizing In August, Expanding In September

By now, you know the story of the 2015 Minnesota Twins. Minnesota got off to an abysmal start, then something clicked, and a team burst onto the scene a year early. Holding down a commanding lead of a Wild Card spot, the Twins looked to be in good position. Unfortunately, the bottom fell out, and Paul Molitor's squad now finds themselves on the outside looking in. With a few weeks left in August, and the active roster expanding in September, things are about to get interesting.

Right now, Minnesota is still in the hunt, but it's the next few series that will determine their 2015 fate. The current major league roster is far from optimal, but it also appears capable of pulling out some victories. With the AL East as their upcoming competition, the Twins need to stay focused throughout the end of August.

Ideally, roster optimization in August for the Twins would include both Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios in the big leagues. Both are more than capable of providing a boost, and would be a definite asset. Buxton is likely being held back to sometime around the end of the month due to service time, and Berrios has a ticking innings clock. Arguments for both sides are compelling, but operating under the belief that the Twins aren't a playoff team, I'd wait until September 1st on both.

The bullpen is really the only other place the Twins could be looking for a boost in the current month. Things have been in flux of late, and changes have been made. There's a few places that could be considered weak spots, but it's also hard to suggest the replacement arms would be a guaranteed upgrade. Ryan O'Rourke and A.J. Achter have both proven capable at times, while Brian Duensing and Kevin Jepsen have been better of late. Much like the offense, there's little to nothing I'd change here at the moment.

As rosters expand in September, this is where the Twins have the most room to operate through some exciting decisions. First and foremost, Buxton and Berrios need to be with the big league club. Buxton is slashing .404/.440/.532 in his first 11 Triple-A games, while Berrios owns a 2.25 ERA in his last 40.0 IP. Buxton should push Aaron Hicks to right field, rendering Torii Hunter a rotational bat and replacement fielder (his likely 2016 role). Berrios deserves a crack at the rotation, and giving him three starts to end 2015 would be extremely valuable going into spring training 2016.

Outside of the top two, Minnesota has some other must accommodate types. First and foremost, Max Kepler. The German prospect is batting over .330 at Double-A and has been arguably the best hitter in the system this season. Getting him reps at the MLB level prior to 2016 is an absolute must.

Teammate Nick Burdi could also be a consideration from Double-A. The 2014 second round pick has taken his lumps this year, but he owns a 2.05 ERA across his last 22.0 IP. Burdi should be a key part of the 2016 bullpen, and getting his feet wet now (as well as his strikeout punch) is a route the Twins should explore. Jorge Polanco and J.T. Chargois could also be options if the Twins want to open things up a bit further.

Just one level down, Paul Molitor has a few guys at Triple-A that will need a look. James Beresford should be given a tip of the cap type shot for what he has put together this year. The Aussie is slashing .313/.346/.368 and he offers at least a better option than Doug Bernier down the stretch for the big club. Out of the bullpen, Mark Hamburger is an option. The Twins are well acquainted with Hamburger, and his 1.05 ERA since June 16 would seemingly bolster the Twins arms.

For Rochester, Kennys Vargas has pushed himself and worked his way back to the highest level on the farm. He's slashed .316/.519/.421 in seven games since his return to Triple-A, and will be fighting for a 25 man spot to open 2016. On the opposite end of the spectrum, overlooking Oswaldo Arcia might not be a bad idea. He went on a nice home run-filled hot streak, but he's slashed just .100/.200/.157 across his last 21 games. The Twins need to make a decision on Arcia before the upcoming year, but it's gut check time for the powerful Venezuelan.

Looking at what can be done, and how the Twins are positioned, the final few weeks of the season offer plenty of intrigue. At the forefront is a team who is competing for the first time in many years. Secondary though, is a team that has shown up a year early, and offers the organization an opportunity to not rush decisions, but also time to evaluate in meaningful competition.

August shouldn't be a time of much turnover for the Twins, as roster optimization would still more than likely keep them out of the playoffs. September though is a period where the Twins can begin to position for 2016 and beyond, with their being little reason not to get the ball rolling.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Does It Matter If Twins Hope Fades?

July comes to a close, the Major League Baseball trade deadline passes, and the dust settles. In the wake of it all, the Minnesota Twins are left with a slim lead in the Wild Card race, and a very small margin for error. Hope has to be waning right? But what if that hope is placed in the wrong things, and it doesn't really matter if the Twins fade?

Coming into the season the Twins weren't a realistic postseason contender, they weren't supposed to be here, and this wasn't supposed to be their time. Sure, it would be great to capitalize on a situation after four straight seasons with more than 90 losses, but at the end of the day, perspective must reign supreme. At what cost does competing now come, and does maximizing a current Wild Card spot sacrifice future years? Maybe hope is best placed elsewhere, after all, Paul Molitor's Twins have provided plenty of areas this season.

Maybe most visible of them all is the emergence and development all along. This was coming, and I've been suggesting it for well over the past year. He's put it all together this season though at a rate even I wasn't prepared for. Owning a .299/.364/.437 slash line, and hitting .365/.443/.608 in July and his five home runs are on pace for a new career high. He's been worth 2 DRS (defensive runs saved) and has a 6.1 UZR (ultimate zone rating) as the Twins centerfielder. Even when Byron Buxton shifts him to right field, the Twins have a solid asset at their disposal.

Another young guy has stepped up in a big way. Going into the season, I suggested Eddie Rosario would be the first Twins prospect called up, and that he could go on to have a Danny Santana (2014) like season. He's batting .294/.316/.462 and has caught fire of late batting .393/.393/.679 since July 10. In the field he's been worth 3 DRS and owns a 3.0 UZR as he looks poised to lock down left field for the Twins into the future.

As has been anticipated for many years, Miguel Sano made his big league debut in 2015. So far he's done everything expected of him and then some. Already with three home runs in his first 21 games, he's also hit for average batting .296/.427/.507. More impressively, he's batting .364/.500/.682 against righties, while hitting just .185/.290/.22 against lefties. In the minors this year Sano was better against lefties slashing .299/.405/.597. He's going to crush lefties at the MLB level, so the fact that he's also seeing righties well early is a great development.

Then there's a guy on the big league roster that has continued to prove it. After an impressive 2014, Brian Dozier has looked the part of an MVP candidate in 2105. The first time All Star is hitting .256/.330/.512 with 22 home runs (good for top 15 in the bigs). He's on pace for career highs in doubles, home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored. On pace to be a 5.0+ fWAR player, Dozier has emerged as the best second basemen in the league.

Outside of the 25 man roster, there has been plenty of great development as well. Jose Berrios looks the part of a big league starter right now at Triple-A Rochester. He owns a 1.35 ERA and an 8.1 K/9 across his last three starts. Stephen Gonsalves has followed in the footsteps of Berrios as a fast riser down in Fort Myers, and first round pick Nick Gordon is now getting it done with the bat. It'd be hard to overlook Max Kepler, who's .337 batting average at Double-A Chattanooga is plain silly. Throw in secondary prospects like Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, and Mat Batts, and the Twins are in a better spot than ever.

So that's maybe where the hope is, or should be. Rather than clinging to what the Twins do or don't do at the deadline, or whether they make the playoffs, or whether they fade into September, it's finally a realistic situation to look ahead.

Minnesota should go into 2016 as the clear second best team in the AL Central, trailing only the Royals. Depending on what pieces are added, and who is promoted when, Terry Ryan's organization should see the future as filled with division championships and playoff appearances once again. 2015 has been a lot of fun so far, but if playoff baseball doesn't come to fruition, there's plenty of reason for hope and excitement to thrive where it should be in the first place.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

The Centerfielder The Twins Hoped For


The Twins are in somewhat of a downward spiral of late having won just two out of their last 10 contests. Now the owners of just a slim lead in the wild card standings, Minnesota is looking for bright spots. Luckily enough, the one I've been suggesting for well over a year, is shining brighter than ever. Aaron Hicks has stepped up and he's looking every bit what I've been suggesting he will become.


Ok so I'm a bit thrilled my belief in and backing of Hicks gas come to fruition. I put some of my thoughts in a blog post back in May (read it), and it's been maybe more well documented throughout my Twitter feed. Although the self gratification is fun, the bigger point here is how big of a development this is for not only Hicks, but the Twins as a whole.

It was pretty easily visible that Aaron Hicks was one of the best defensive options for the twins at the major league level. Having had such poor outfield defense for so long, Hicks provided range, ability, and an arm that the organization had not seen for a while. Save his few mental lapses, and he would likely be routinely mentioned amongst the best fielders in the game. It's at the plate though where Hicks has been plagued the longest.

There was a point in his career where Hicks wasn't sure switch hitting was his best plan of action. Struggling mightily against right-handed pitching, he didn't do much better on his dominant right-handed hitting side either. Owning just a .203/.273/.441 slash line in 2013 (his first big league season) as a righty, his line of .340/.400/.540 in 2015 is significantly improved. Having never hit above .215 at the big league level, his current .288 mark is incredibly impressive.

On top of getting extra base hits (Hicks has four doubles, two triples, and four home runs on the year), the biggest boost comes from his approach at the plate. A big on-base guy in the minors, Hicks hadn't flash much of that ability for the Twins. In 2015 though, he's got a career high .345 OBP and owns a 25/16 K/BB ratio.

Due to a better command of the zone, Hicks has seen drastic improvements in some different peripherals as well. Following strikeout percentages of 26.8 and 24.9 in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Hicks is being struck out just 14.1% of the time this season. He's got the lowest soft hit percentage of his career (15.6%) and has seen the biggest jump in his medium contact percentage (60.7%).

Aggressiveness has also been something that Hicks has noted working on, and that has shown as well. Swinging at more pitches, and earlier in the count, Hicks has been able to work things in his favor. He's swung at a career high 45.3% of pitches while owning a career best 82.0% contact rate. The new found confidence has also played when he's behind in the count. After getting down 0-2, Hicks owns a .296/.345/.481 line.

At the plate, Aaron Hicks has absolutely substantiated the notion I suggested many months ago. A promotion from Double-A based on a hot spring training was premature, and following a respectable time in Triple-A to end 2014 (.278/.349/.389 through 23 games), Hicks had completed a healthier path to his success.

In the field, Hicks has turned it up in 2015 as well. Having been already regarded as a good outfielder, he now owns a 3 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark this season, along with a 6.6 UZR (ultimate zone rating) and a 28.6 UZR/150. Having been a -0.6 and 0.1 fWAR player this season, Hicks is now worth 1.5 fWAR. To the Twins, he's absolutely an asset.

With Byron Buxton still being the best prospect in baseball, Hicks' run in centerfield is no doubt going to come to an end. With his arm, he profiles wonderfully to be an exceptional right-fielder as well. Until that time comes though, the Twins have the centerfielder they were hoping for, and the one I believed was flashing signs of being ready for far too long.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

The Twins Outfield That's Yet To Come

Over the course of the past few weeks, I've had a handful of readers asking about the current construction of the Minnesota Twins outfield, and how it will change going forward. I would suppose Oswaldo Arcia's struggles as well as the introduction of the 2015 version of Aaron Hicks is at the root of these discussions. However, Minnesota remains in a place where the outfield could be turned into a relative strength in short order.

Going into the 2014 season, the configuration from left to right of Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter had nightmare written all over it. Minnesota was set to punt once again defensively in left (a la Josh Willingham), and go with the basement dwelling ceiling of Schafer in center. While Hunter's bat was expected to play, he's far from an asset defensively at this point in his career. To this point in the season, the defensive struggle in the outfield has been apparent, but not as noteworthy as expected. Right now, only Hunter remains of that current group, and that has proven for the better.

On the season Arcia has played in just 19 games. He is currently rehabbing from a DL stint and is looking to get back to the big leagues. His .276/.338/.379 slash line isn't horrid, but he's lacked the power and plate discipline many expected to show up this season. Arcia has been a name that plenty have wondered about trading, sending down, or have tied frustration to, but all of that appears premature.

I thought Arcia would lead the Twins in home runs going into the season. 30 long balls appeared to be a realistic mark, and he seemed to have the ability to make Target Field look very small. So far, injury has prevented that narrative from playing out, but a strong summer could still save face. There's no doubt the Twins should stick with him in left and get the Venezuelan at bats at DH as well. Going forward, he's a guy I think Minnesota should feel ok with manning left for them. If that's the Twins one defensive punt in the outfield, it's one I'm ok with.

In center, the Twins were fighting an uphill battle from the get go. Schafer was always going to be a poor option, and platooning him with a veteran 4th outfielder at best in Shane Robinson just screamed. Thankfully, Aaron Hicks took over in the middle of May. As expected, Hicks has been a much different player this time around and both he and the Twins are better for it.

Always regarded as a plus defender, it's been Hicks bat that has made the biggest improvement. Taking quality at bats from both sides of the plate, Hicks is slashing .250/.297/.317. The OBP mark is one that should be expected to continue to rise as he has always been a guy known to draw walks. His speed has played on the basepaths, already swiping four bags. With Byron Buxton in tow for the Twins, Hicks is going to have to move to right field. If he can continue to play at this level or above for the rest of the 2015 season, the Twins should be happy to showcase his arm there.

There's no doubt that Buxton is the future in centerfield for the Twins. As good as Hicks has been defensively, Buxton should and will be better. Blistering speed and ball tracking skills unparalleled, the Twins are in for a treat when their number one prospect takes over in center. It's tough to argue that Buxton has been slow out of the gates down in Double-A. He's hitting just .259 and has been scuffling of late. If he can get a hot streak going however, Minnesota could decide to bring him up in early August.

As the 2016 season kicks off, I'd argue the ideal construction for the Twins would be to go Arcia, Buxton, and Hicks from left to right. Carrying Eddie Rosario as the fourth outfielder makes a lot of sense, and his seasoning in 2015 would be beneficial to him swapping in and out for Hicks and Arcia when needed. At this point, it would appear Torii Hunter would be coming back for another year, and that could throw somewhat of a wrench into the advancement plans. Hunter may see more at bats at the DH spot next season, and the Twins defense would no doubt be the better for it.

A detriment at times in 2015, the 2016 Twins outfield should be looked upon with favor. Hicks still has plenty of value to this organization, and talk of moving on from a 24 year old Arcia would seem to be a mistake. The Twins should start to see the fruits of their labor sooner rather than later.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

The Twins Outfield Future Begins

Last night former first round draft pick, Aaron Hicks, got the call from the Minnesota Twins. While it isn't his first rodeo in the big leagues, there's no doubt this time signifies what might be the most important. After playing 27 games at the Triple-A level and batting .336/.415/.561, Minnesota saw fit to improve their outfield by bringing Hicks back into the fold. With more weighing on Hicks this time around, there's also plenty of reason to believe things click.

Although he was the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Hicks took a more accelerated route to the big leagues than would have been expected. Despite playing five seasons in the minors, his best season at the plate saw him hit .318/.409/.491 in Rookie ball immediately after being drafted. A strong 2013 spring training, combined with the Twins dealing both Denard Span and Ben Revere, had Hicks being promoted directly from Double-A. After 150 games of struggle at the big league level, it was apparent a new approach was needed with Hicks.

Last season, the Twins demoted Hicks from the major leagues to Double-A. Playing in 43 games for Double-A New Britain in 2014, Hicks batted .297/.404/.466 and once again looked the part of an exciting prospect. Hicks was promoted to Triple-A Rochester, and for the first time in his career, played through Double and Triple-A in succession.

Expected to come into the 2015 season with the starting centerfield job his to lose once again, the Twins opted to go a different direction. With returns in spring training not being where the club wanted, Paul Molitor brought both Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson north. A confusing decision at the time, there's no doubt that Hicks made the most of his time in Triple-A. Abusing opposing pitchers while being the offensive catalyst for the Red Wings in 2015, Hicks no doubt earned his most recent promotion back to the big leagues.

Now in line for the starting centerfield role for the forseeable future, the Twins are hopeful they can begin to watch their outfield unfold. Hicks will immediately bring not only an offensive boost, but also defensive help, to a lackluster outfield. He presents opportunity for a Twins team in a good spot, to reach even new heights. The Twins hope is that Hicks will play his way into their future plans.

There's little doubt that Byron Buxton is eventually going to take over the centerfield role for the Twins. He's the number one prospect in all of baseball, and he's looked the part at every level. Buxton and Hicks are mutually exclusive however, in that the success of each of them would be huge for the Twins. Casting aside Hicks' previous struggles (remember, he's in uncharted territory now having excelled at each level of the farm system in order), a solid start for Hicks makes him an ideal corner fit for the Twins. Hicks has a plus arm, and could profile nicely in right field down the line.

Minnesota is no doubt enjoying the success that the 2015 season has brought them in the early going, but this team is built to contend for years to come. The hope would no doubt be that an outfield of Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks would be the configuration for many years to come. Adding in Eddie Rosario as a 4th option would only further the talent that the Twins could employ out of the gate next season.

The Minnesota Twins, Aaron Hicks, and most everyone sees this as a last shot for the former first round pick, but smart money may be on the player. Hicks has shown plenty of reason to believe in him, and for the sake of an improved outfield going forward, the hope would be that it all comes full circle.

Monday, May 4, 2015

Aaron Hicks 2.0 Is Ready

In the spring of 2013, the Minnesota Twins promoted former first round pick, Aaron Hicks, to the Opening Day roster following spring training. That spring, he hit .370/.407/.644 with four home runs and 18 runs batted in across just 73 at bats. After dealing Denard Span and Ben Revere during the offseason, Minnesota needed their next ceneterfield, and they believed Hicks was the future. Fast forward to 2015, and you know how the story went. Fortunately for Hicks, the next chapter is yet to be written, and it looks like it's going to be must read.

In his first two big league seasons, Hicks has spent time between the major leagues, and different levels of the farm system. At the big league level, he has hit just .201/.293/.313 over the course of 150 games (or roughly one full season). There's no doubt that fans have grown cautious about expecting much more from a guy who's looked overmatched at the plate, and disinterested in the field. That all noted, it's time that the next chapter of Hick's story gets written.

Following a demotion to Double-A in 2014, Hicks had a significant reality check. After being shown what major league life looks like, he was sent back to the doldrums of the farm system, and forced to travel to games by bus. If you were unconvinced that would motivate the former first round pick, Hicks' numbers the rest of the season should calm those nerves. Ending 2014 playing in 67 minor league games (43 at Double-A New Britain and 24 at Triple-A Rochester), the centerfielder hit .291/.387/.441. Despite looking at abandoning his switch-hitting ways, Hicks focused and succeeded at the plate.

In being sent to Double-A in 2014, Hicks experienced a first in his professional career. He had never gone from Double-A to Triple-A in succession. While some prospects can skip the highest level of the minors, others benefit significantly from the continued progression. With Double-A often housing the higher prospects, it is in Triple-A where pitchers generally can pitch more than simply throw, and hitters are forced to deal with more refined breaking pitches each at bat. Hicks' struggles at the major league level were being reworked correctly for the first time in his career. After being promoted due to a strong spring and by need in the outfield, the Twins were putting Hicks in a position to best succeed.

Spring training kicked off for 2015, and Hicks didn't light anything on fire. As we've seen before however, numbers are rarely indicative of how a regular season is going to go. No doubt the bigger issue this spring for Hicks was his lack of focus at certain times in games. Not knowing situations or seeming disinterested was never going to be a good impression to place on first year manager Paul Molitor. Despite arguably being the best option to start in center for the Twins, Minnesota sent Hicks to Rochester to begin the season. Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson were brought north, and Hicks was sent another message.

For the Twins in 2015, Robinson has done everything asked of him. He's played a strong defensive outfield, and he's surprisingly been an asset at the plate. On the flip side, Schafer has been anything but. Looking overmatched in the outfield, his .189/.218/.226 line does Minnesota no favors at the plate either. While his speed is valuable, he has been unable to use it struggling to get on base. With no stolen bases through the first month, it's time Minnesota moves on from Schafer and puts Hicks back in his role. This time however, the big league club should expect it to be different.

Through the first month of the season, Hicks has hit .289/.375/.494 for the Rochester Red Wings. He homered twice, drove in 13 runs, stolen two bases, and owns a 15/12 K/BB rate. After the success shown in Double and Triple-A last season, combined with his start in 2015, the Twins should be expecting a new Aaron Hicks, 2.0 if you will. While Molitor may still have to invoke some professionalism on the young man (just 25 years old), there's no doubt the Twins could use Hicks' talent on their roster.

Despite early returns not being where the club would have liked, 150 games prior to conventional promotions should not be the end of Aaron Hicks story. There's no doubt Target Field should be calling Hicks' name soon, and Twins fans should finally expect to be the better for it. Aaron Hicks 2.0 appears to be ready.

Thursday, April 30, 2015

The Roster Moves Are Coming, Aren't They?

Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins played one of the worst baseball games I have witnessed at the professional level for quite some time. With Phil Hughes leaving after five innings due to an injury, Tim Stauffer came on to take over. Handed a 7-3 lead, he promptly allowed two solo home runs (giving up three total runs), while getting just two outs. Casey Fien later allowed three more earned runs before leaving with an injury, and the Twins fell by a score of 10-7. Losing centerfield Jordan Schafer to injury in the game as well, the Twins looked to be hurting in every aspect. The assumption was that moves would be coming, but the matter now is when.

Looking at the game yesterday, the Twins watched as their two biggest deficiencies were exploited to an ugly extent. Having a below average defense hurt them on multiple occasions. Schafer and Oswaldo Arcia looked inept in the outfield, and a popup fell for a hit in the infield. Following a good start, the bullpen imploded giving up not only the lead, but also seven earned runs on 10 hits in just four innings. There's no doubt that Minnesota gave away a win yesterday, a chance at being a game within .500, and an opportunity for a second consecutive series win. With players like Stauffer and Schafer repeating those types of performances more often than not, Minnesota needs to make some changes.

It appeared initially that Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan may have had their hand finally forced. Losing Hughes, Schafer, and Fien all in the same game suggested that some moves would need to be made. For now however, it looks as if all three players should be able to overcome their setbacks in short order and avoid missing time. For the sake of the Twins however, injuries shouldn't dictate a certaint few moves being made.

Defense has been a problem all year, and it's only going to continue to be an issue. Minnesota has tried Schafer in center for plenty of time, and it's past the period of moving on. Aaron Hicks no doubt was the most sensible option in center for this club out of the gate, and it's time the Twins fix the mistake. Schafer is batting .188.204/.229, by all measurable standards, horrible doesn't being to describe that. Hicks is hitting .288/.385/.485 in Triple-A, and brings a plus level of defense to the field. His mental lapses can't happen, but Molitor can inflict that discipline on him. Shane Robinson makes sense as a fourth outfielder, and he's hit well even in a small sample size. Schafer has worn out his welcome in Minnesota, and Hicks should be up with the big league club within the next couple of weeks.

Despite snagging two hits yesterday, Kennys Vargas is slashing just .183/.246/.250. His power has not shown up, and he's been caught chasing pitches all over the plate. A trip to Triple-A to mash some breaking balls would probably do him well. Offering little at first base defensively, a switch to Trevor Plouffe or Chris Herrmann as the backup wouldn't be a big downgrade. In Rochester, Josmil Pinto continues to pound baseballs, and would immediately add a boost to the Twins lineup. Pinto is slashing .305/.397/.373. On top of that, he's thrown out 2-8 would be base stealers, and has allowed just one passed ball in 14 games. Pinto has little to prove on the farm and should also be with the big league club before the middle of May.

If Minnesota wants to be able to hang onto leads, a bullpen shakeup is going to be necessary. Rather than continuing to mutter that the club is looking for help, a quick glance at the farm would do the Twins well. Terry Ryan took fliers on Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer likely with the idea he could turn them into something later in the season (a la Sam Fuld). We can see that's not going to happen with Stauffer. His 8.38 ERA is horrid and just keeps climbing. DFA'ing Stauffer sometime soon would probably be the best practice. Boyer has looked sharper of late, and the Twins could still get value out of him if he can continue along that path. It's not a guarantee though, and there shouldn't be much of a leash there either.

The Twins bullpen is currently void of power arms, and the ones they could have taken north are in Triple-A. Michael Tonkin currently owns a 2.45 ERA with Rochester, and is striking out batters at a 12.3 K/9 clip (he is now taking over in the pen for Casey Fien who will hit the DL). Ryan Pressly's 4.50 ERA isn't where you'd like it to be, but it's only been 10 innings. He does however have a 13.5 K/9 and owned a 2.86 ERA for the Twins in 2014. Finally, Lester Oliveros owns a 1.04 ERA with Rochester, and has struck out batters at a ridiculous 17.7 K/9 rate. You could probably throw A.J. Achter into this group as well, and make the argument that all of them are better bullpen options than a handful of the guys the Twins currently are running out there. I'd expect to see at least one of them with the big league club within the next two weeks.

At the end of the day, it's a sad situation if it ultimately becomes injuries that force the Twins briantrust to make necessary moves. With that in mind however, this team needs to stretch wins in its favor by putting their most competitive lineup on the field each night. Running low-ceiling guys out there hoping they don't get burnt isn't a good practice. It by no means is time for the kids (check out how Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are hitting, the rust needs to come off first), but there's significantly better options in the organization than what the major league team has gone with. Let's get those moves queued up.

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Early Decisions To Pave Twins Summer


As April comes to a close, the Minnesota Twins can begin to take a look back on the month that was. Only playing a handful of games against competition outside of the AL Central, positioning amongst what should be one of the toughest divisions in baseball is starting to take shape. While Minnesota was never expected to be at the top of the standings, how they progress until the All-Star break may be largely a by-product of their own decisions.

Paul Molitor has shown in the early going that he isn't afraid of making decisions. He's had to deal with the losses of Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana, as well as trying to find a way to jumpstart a relatively stagnant offense. Whether by choice or happenstance, the Twins first-year skipper has been forced to act. Now with his feet wet however, the decisions become harder, and carry the weight that helps to shape the rest of the season.

The biggest areas of contention coming into the season for the Twins remained the outfield, pitching, and timeline of up and coming prospects. As April winds down, each of these areas have allowed for a heightened level of clarity. With the Twins wanting to push towards a .500 mark at some point in 2015, it will be on the timely execution of those areas that makes all of the difference.

In the outfield, Minnesota elected to go with a bat over defensive prowess when they brought in Torii Hunter. With Hunter and Oswaldo Arcia on the corners, there has no doubt been more head scratching situations than there have been highlight reel plays. Neither players bats have shown up thus far either, but that probably is the least of the outfield worries. In center, Molitor made a statement by turning to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson out of the gate. While the latter has worked out wonderfully in a 4th outfielder role (as he has always been and continues to be destined for), the former has been a colossal flop and has provided little on either side of the ball. Looking confused and conflicted on defense, while overmatched at the plate, Schafer's leash with the Twins should and needs to be drawing short.

Fixing the position from within remains a relatively simple move. Both Schafer and Robinson are 4th outfield types that the club shouldn't worry about losing, but Robinson has played his way into sticking. Sending Schafer either on his way, or to Rochester, would allow for Aaron Hicks to make his 2015 debut. Although Hicks has been largely unimpressive at the major league level thus far, he's a former first round pick with less than two full seasons under his belt. Suggesting there was something to gain by sending a high-ceiling option to Triple-A, to with a six-year major league who's compiled a 0.2 WAR seems silly. Factor in the fact that Hicks showed well in his first time going through Double and Triple-A in succession (as he did post demotion in 2014), and it appears time to get him where he belongs. Expecting an immediate or drastic impact out of Hicks is probably not logical, but there's little reason to keep running Schafer out there.

On the mound, it was in the rotation that Molitor had to deal with issues first. Santana's untimely suspension, and Nolasco's unfortunate injury put the spring competition in a largely irrelevant scenario. Through the early going, Phil Hughes has actually been better in 2015 than a year ago (despite getting no run support), Kyle Gibson has been average, and Mike Pelfrey has actually looked strong. Throw in Trevor May coming in taking Nolasco's spot, and the rotation has actually been handled relatively well.

Looking at the bullpen however, the Twins still seem lost. Those inside of the organization continue to quip that the club is looking for relief help. When bringing low-ceiling options like Tim Stauffer, Blaine Boyer, and Brian Duensing north, getting shelled should have been an expected practice. The troubling part is that instead of suggesting that options on the market are being considered, increasing the ceiling from within makes the most sense. Rochester sports an incredible bullpen currently, and players such as Michael Tonkin, Logan Darnell, and A.J. Achter could have all better served options from the get go. Instead of taking chances on young options with a respectable amount of potential, the Twins tried to reinvent castoff veterans and it's gotten the best of them thus far.

Finally, the prospect timeline has begun to sort itself out. As much as it would be fun to see Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano playing at the big league level, early returns suggest they aren't ready even for Triple-A. Both have been around or below the Mendoza Line through the first month, and there's no doubt rust needs to be shaken off. While it doesn't change the long term prognosis, promotion because of name alone is something that will get a club nowhere fast.

On the pitching side of the farm, Alex Meyer and Jose Berrios have been intriguing for different reasons. Extremely strong out of the gate has been Berrios, who has made Double-A batters look largely foolish. There's no doubt another solid start could have him in Rochester in short order. Meyer has been the opposite. While starting out his season in missing the zone and offering free passes, he has started to gain steam of late. A strong start in front of Terry Ryan is a good building block, and the Twins could decide to allow his next few starts to dictate their usage of the tall fire baller.

It's still way too early to suggest what will happen by the end of September, but what Paul Molitor and the Twins brain trust does over the next few weeks will no doubt shape the summer. Making the right moves at the right time are something Minnesota has got to be perfect on, and in 2015, a significant amount of those moves appear to be needed from within.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Twins Reduce Clarity With Roster Cuts


This morning, first year manager Paul Molitor announced the next handful of roster cuts for the Minnesota Twins. As the team whittles down its roster to 25 players prior to Opening Day a week from Monday, the group of Fort Myers is going to get smaller. With 31 players now left in camp, Molitor has six more players he must send packing. The latest round however may have caused more confusion than clarity.

Amongst the roster moves this morning, the Minnesota Twins elected to send out position players Eddie Rosario and Aaron Hicks. Both outfielders will head to Triple-A Rochester to begin the 2015 season. Relief pitcher Mark Hamburger was also optioned as well as starter Trevor May. Both pitchers will head to the Red Wings as well. With the moves, it was also announced that Tommy Milone would open as the Twins fifth and final starter, with Mike Pelfrey transitioning to the bullpen.

No matter how you break it down, Saturday was by far the most integral day of roster shuffling the Twins have seen thus far. With the plethora of decisions made, the roster is taking shape. That being said, there's no doubt that a few of the moves made cause reason for confusion.

Starting with the outfield, namely centerfield, both Hicks and Rosario were sent packing. Thus far during the spring, we have heard that neither Hicks nor Rosario would stick with the club in a rotational capacity. They would either be named the starter, or would be sent packing. The curious part of the equation is that those sentiments seemed to be in unison with one another. Either Rosario or Hicks would start, as it never appeared likely that Jordan Schafer or Shane Robinson were viable candidates.

That brings us to where we are now. The Twins are heading into 2015 with some opportunity to outperform expectations. No one is banking on them being a playoff team, but if all things break right, they could squeak in. That being said, the upcoming season is about figuring out who you have to pair with the arrival of the talented youth on the way. Rosario still very much remains of that grouping, but the problem is Aaron Hicks.

Hicks, a former first round pick for the Twins, has struggled mightily at the major league level. After an impressive 2013 spring training, he was promoted to the starting role from Double-A, despite being more of a tools prospect than the refined category of a Byron Buxton. Last year, for the first time in his career, a demotion allowed him to successively progress through both the Double-A and Triple-A levels. He did so while hitting for average, getting on base, and playing solid centerfield defense. Today's move suggest the Twins aren't looking to substantiate that at the major league level and the big question is why? Figuring out what Hicks has to give you prior to turning Buxton and Rosario loose seems to be an integral thing to unlock. Doing so out of the gate with a strong end to the 2014 season made the most sense. Now it would appear the Twins have created more questions than answers.

In moving on from Hicks to start the season, Molitor is giving the centerfield job to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson. He has said he will "play matchups" but that it won't be a straight platoon situation. While that's great in theory, by and large, that is what's going to take place. The problem there is that a platoon is designed to allow a batter to exploit his talents against a certain type of pitcher.

Neither Robinson nor Schafer possess any real ability at the plate. Schafer owns a .229 career average, and was under the Mendoza line last season before coming over from the Braves. Sure he hit .285 for the Twins, but there's no way the production is sustainable. As an outfielder owning a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -8.4, he's not someone you ideally want starting in center either.

On the other side of the equation, Robinson fooled no one with a breakout season at the plate. He spent much of 2014 in Triple-A for the Cardinals. His career UZR of 7.8 is indicative of his billing as a defensive outfielder, but his career average suggests he's virtually a guaranteed out as well. At the end of the day, Molitor and the Twins appear to have looked past Aaron Hicks at the juncture that may result in them getting another opportunity to do so.

Looking at the mound, normalcy has likely been achieved. As Mike Palfrey heads to the pen with Milone rounding out the rotation, the Twins know how things will start. Palfrey voiced displeasure suggesting he was told he'd be given a chance to start, and that he didn't believe he'd be destined for the pen. This morning, he went as far as saying if there are clubs who believe in him as a starter, he would be open to moving on.

To be fair, the competition likely never included Palfrey from the get go. While he posted a sub 2.00 ERA this spring, 13.2 innings were never going to be enough to extrapolate any information that multiple years of bad starting pitching wouldn't overshadow. Trevor May pitched well, and despite his rough outing on Friday, he was always going to be in an uphill battle. Malone is a proven commodity and pitched well on a solid Oakland team. Minnesota should expect him to return to that form this season.

Despite being upset about his new role, Pelfrey actually could extend his career this way. With the ability to push the radar gun to around 97 in a less stamina related role, he could overpower hitters to a much larger extent. While Wade Davis is the golden example, if Palfrey can follow that path and become even close to that level, the Twins stand to gain a lot with this decision. Should Palfrey be focused on starting, the Twins could look to the Mets, Blue Jays, and maybe even the Red Sox as options. The problem is that a bad starting pitcher is probably going to net them less in a trade, even if that team needs an arm, than what they would find out by having him relieve first.

At the end of Saturday, we know a lot more about how the Twins will look when they head north. Some of it is easy to agree with (sorry Pelf, the pen is home now), and some doesn't make sense (Hicks now becomes a bigger question mark than he was before). As the Twins embark on their last week in Florida, look for the backup catcher role to be determined, and Eduardo Nunez to continue to be evaluated.

Let's hope we aren't having another frustrating discussion involving Kennys Vargas later this week. The Twins are at the mercy of injury when it comes to Josmil Pinto, and if they have to bring Chris Herrmann north because of it, so be it. That being said, lets shoot for a bit higher ceiling with the rest of the decisions alright brain trust?

Monday, March 23, 2015

The Position Battles Are Decided For The Twins

This spring training we have heard plenty of news about the Twins and the positional battles the team would be focusing on. From the outfield, to shortstop, to backstop, Minnesota has plenty of options to explore. There's no doubt that having options is a great thing, but a few weeks away from Opening Day, it's time to decipher the fact that the positional battles are likely already decided.

Knowing that Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are continually evaluating all of the competitions throughout the spring, nothing is yet set in stone. As long as things continue to progress and trend down the path that they currently are, we should have a good idea where everything is going to end up. Looking away from the rotation and bullpen, Minnesota will be making three key decisions in the coming weeks.

Mar 9, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks (32) pops a ball up to third during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports 
Centerfield

Update: On Saturday morning, the Twins sent both Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario to Triple-A Rochester. Shane Robinson and Jordan Schafer will now take over centerfield for the immediate future. As seen here, I'm not sure who missed more on this decision. Me for suggesting the wrong guy, or the Twins for going through with it.

Starting the furthest from the plate, the Twins went into camp wondering who would be their Opening Day centerfielder. With Aaron Hicks looking like the odds on favorite, he would be given the first crack, and that should likely stick heading north as well. Is it fair to be down on the production that Hicks has shown at the major league level thus far, of course. That being said, 2015 represents a new opportunity for the former first round pick. Never before in his career has he been given the opportunity to progress from Double to Triple-A in succession, he did so last season and had solid results.

This spring, Hicks has had a few mental lapses while producing at a very mediocre level at the plate. The statistical results mean very little (remember he made the club from Double-A due in part to a massive spring training in 2013), but the mental mistakes need to cease. Out of the gate however, it should and will be Hicks starting in center. This is his last chance, and the Twins can't afford to ignore the production put up through normal succession a season ago.

Jordan Schafer is a prototypical fourth outfielder and isn't going to bring much more to the table. His speed is an asset, but probably more a luxury than anything. Eddie Rosario has played himself into the conversation this spring, but the Twins would be best to hold off. With the ability to play all three outfield positions, he is an ideal fit on the 25 man. However, he needs to be able to see significant playing time, and that can't take place until the Twins can make a decision on Aaron Hicks. Ideally, Hicks plays well out of the gate, and Rosario forces the Twins to make a decision on a much less talented Schafer.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Shortstop

Don't be fooled, Danny Santana is the Minnesota Twins starting shortstop when they take the field against the Detroit Tigers on Opening Day. That's not to say Eduardo Escobar has not had a great spring, but instead that the Twins are best utilizing all of their options.

Last season, Santana had the third highest batting average on balls in play since 1961. With that number, there's reason to believe that his average is not something he's going to replicate in 2015. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor both seem realistic in understanding that fact. However, given his production, there's no reason to pull him from the lineup at this point. Although he played centerfield a season ago, putting him there this year amongst other more capable options, would be indicative of overvaluing his ability at the plate. Santana has earned the right to start at short, and will for the forseeable future.

That brings Escobar front and center. Over the course of spring training, next to no one has been more impressive than the Twins return for Francisco Liriano. Escobar has been an RBI machine, shown positional flexibility, and continues to get it done at the plate. Those reasons all add up to why the Twins can't force him into the starting shortstop role when they head north. As a utility player, Escobar gives the Twins the ability to put him all over the diamond, and see no dip in production no matter where he plays. Instead of having a defensive-minded utility guy, the Twins have someone who can get it done in the field and at the plate in Escobar, an asset they haven't seen in a while.

Over the course of the 2015 season, Escobar will be given plenty of starts at shortstop, but allowing Molitor to use him as a utility man makes the Twins better as a whole.

Mar 17, 2015; Sarasota, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Josmil Pinto (43) prepares to hit in the batting cage before the start of the spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports 
Catcher

As fluid as the game of baseball is, the backup catcher took another interesting turn over the weekend as Josmil Pinto was shelved with concussion-like symptoms. After taking a backswing from Adam Jones to the head, the leader in the backup catcher race now finds himself recovering once again.

Having missed time out of the gate with a leg injury, and now dealing with the head injury, Pinto has to be considered somewhat of a longshot to break camp on the 25 man roster. He would likely need to be fully cleared with over a week's worth of games left to enter back into the conversation. While that isn't out of the realm of possibility, it would also appear to be an uphill battle at this point.

If Pinto isn't the guy behind Kurt Suzuki for the Twins, Molitor would be forced to turn to the likes of Eric Fryer or Chris Herrmann. Neither player is an ideal big league fit, but of the two, it's Herrmann that probably makes the most sense. Having flexibility to play other positions as well, Herrmann allows Molitor some options. Having caught seven games this spring, and hit .400 across 20 at bats, Herrmann could be said to have played himself into this position.

On the flip side, Fryer has struggled in Fort Myers for the Twins. Across nine games, he has hit just .190 and offers very little upside. While Herrmann isn't a major league mainstay either, Fryer hasn't done enough to warrant consideration as a placeholder for the Twins. Behind Suzuki, the backup catcher needs to bring as many tools to the table as possible, and Fryer simply doesn't have enough.

Minnesota should be expecting Suzuki to take steps backwards offensively on his own this season. He had a career year a season ago, and expecting that to continue is probably far-fetched. Not a defensive wizard, Suzuki is average on his own, and the Twins will need some production out of whoever they slot in behind him. The ideal scenario would have been the power hitting Pinto, but his recent injury may have to change their way of thinking.

What this all boils down to is that while the Twins are continuing to find themselves for the upcoming season, the positional battles seem all but determined. Expecting a major shift to take place with just a couple of weeks before Opening Day probably isn't going to happen. While the grips on the roles may not be lock tight, I feel confident in suggesting that they are as stated above. The Twins will be as good as their worst player, and this year they are in a better spot than any of the previous four. It would be beneficial if it would stay that way.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Aaron Hicks May Have A Few Needs

Mar 9, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks (32) pops a ball up to third during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports 
The Minnesota Twins centerfield position battle is probably one of the last true battles taking place this spring. At this point, I'm operating under the belief that Tommy Milone is going to win the final starting role, and that Danny Santana has all but claimed the Opening Day Shortstop position. With Aaron Hicks working to fend off both Jordan Schafer and Eddie Rosario, we have to start thinking about what happens if it doesn't work.

Now, full disclosure, I am not yet of this belief. I think Hicks has a really solid chance to put everything together at the big league level this year. Following his demotion to Double-A in 2014, he had the opportunity to climb through the system in succession for the first time, and his bat traveled with him. Combining to hit .291/.387/.441 across 67 minor league games, Hicks has shown he has the ability. While only batting .215 last season for the Twins, his .341 on base percentage would only skyrocket if he could increase his average. Giving him the beginning of the season to make it work, I think Minnesota finally sees some of the returns they expected when selecting him in the first round.

Back to what happens in the doomsday scenario, Hicks is very close to reaching this point as well. He's hit just .201/.293/.313 across 150 career major league games. While his plate discipline was significantly improved last season, he showed a lack of decision making and struggled to cover the edge of the plate allowing slow hands to be a detriment through the zone. On top of the mental lapses that have been displayed on center stage, there's no doubt that Hicks is on his last straw with the Twins.

A few different recommendations have been thrown around for Hicks. Recently Patrick Reusse was talking about a conversation he had with veteran outfielder Torii Hunter regarding Hicks. Hunter mentioned that Hicks has been taking direction from so many different people over the last two seasons, he's constantly trying to tweak something or implement something new. Torii noted that when he was sent back down to the minors a second time, what worked best was sticking to what he knew. Focusing on the process you have that has worked, rather than to constantly change for different results, finally elevated him to where he is today. That's not to suggest it's what will work for Hicks, but having Hunter to help him break through this season is definitely a valuable asset.

Minnesota will know relatively early on what is going to need to be done with Hicks. Until Byron Buxton takes over centerfield on this team, Hicks can't be moved to a corner spot (something he must play his way into anyways) or play as a fourth outfielder. Rosario is pushing for playing time, and while Schafer isn't a prototypical centerfielder, both are better suited for time than a struggling Hicks. If the All Star break approaches with Hicks in familiar territory, the Twins will be forced with a decision, and an interesting option may present itself.

This morning, local sports minds Brandon Warne and Jeremy Nygaard were discussing Hicks and a change of scenery type scenario. I think they stumbled across something that makes a lot of sense.


To summarize the brief exchange, Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Boston Red Sox organization and Aaron Hicks are in fact very similar. Both are former top prospects who have struggled to put it together at the major league level. Hicks may be blocked by only himself and the environment he's in, while Bradley Jr. hasn't afforded himself any opportunities while also being blocked by Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo. Should the Twins decide that they are in a position to cut bait, an exchange with the Red Sox to give both players a new opportunity, may make a lot of sense.

At the end of the day, the hope would be that Aaron Hicks can put it together out of the gate this season. He's out of chances (while he still does have an option left) and there's little left for the Twins to do in hopes of trying to get production out of him. When Opening Day hits, Hicks will be on a quick trajectory towards playing himself into the future plans of the organization, or right out of it.

Monday, March 16, 2015

A New Centerfielder Emerges


The Minnesota Twins are now entering their second full week of  Spring Training games. With eleven games already under their belts, Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have started to ship out some of the non-roster invites and minor league destined players. Thus far however, one surprising name has stuck.

Eddie Rosario.

If you've followed along at Off The Baggy, you know how high I am on the Twins prospect. The former second basemen has long distanced himself from the infield glove, and has successfully converted over to the outfield. While Aaron Hicks and Jordan Schafer have long been regarded as the cornerstones to the centerfield discussion, it appears that Rosario has thrown his hat into the ring.

Coming into spring training, it was assumed that Rosario's playing time would come in left field. With Byron Buxton slated to take over in centerfield for the foreseeable future, Rosario could be the option at one of the corners once Torii Hunter decides to hang them up. After playing 169 games in centerfield at the minor league level, it looks like Rosario could factor into the competition for the Twins Opening Day job.

Over eight games this spring, Rosario has gotten 19 at bats and turned it into a .263 average. He has contributed one double and two home runs while driving in four. Across his 19 at bats, he has only struck out twice, while he has yet to take a walk.

Stacking up against the competition, he trails Hicks as far as hitting is concerned. In six games, Hicks has 14 at bats and is hitting .357. With no home runs, but one triple, Hicks has drove in two. Schafer trails both players batting just .231 through 13 at bats. His one double is his lone extra base hit, and he too has driven in two runs.

Putting the numbers into context, it's good to remember that spring training is more about the process than the results. After all, Hicks was promoted in 2013 after an outstanding spring campaign, only to struggle mightily at the major league level. That being said, the production Rosario has shown, is no doubt the reason that Molitor and Ryan has been given pause. The substantiating factor for Rosario is that his track record shows the production isn't a mistake.

A .294 hitter across five minor league seasons, Rosario has flashed a decent amount of both speed and power in his game. Suffering a 50 game setback last season in the form of a recreational drug suspension, the Twins likely had to readjust their timeline with the exciting prospect. In 2015 however, all bets appear to be off.

With just over two weeks left in the spring training schedule, things will continue to get sorted out in the Twins outfield. Minnesota is no doubt hoping that Hicks takes steps forward and puts it together at the big league level this season. Of the bunch, Schafer is probably the safest bet for a roster inclusion, given that he would need to be designated to Rochester. Right now, it's probably safe to assume that the Twins are deciding between Rosario and Hicks for the starting role.

As a betting man, I'd put my money on Hicks going north. With the Twins wanting to see the production he showed at the minor league level following his demotion, he has likely secured one last chance. That being said, Rosario should stick around in camp for a while, and you can bet he'll be a quick phone call away. He still remains my pick to be the first positional prospect that debuts with the Twins in 2015.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

The Twins Next Breakout Star


Baseball is an incredibly difficult sport to play, and it may be even more difficult to predict what may take place over the course of a 162 game season. In 2014, the Minnesota Twins saw breakout performances at both the minor and major league level. Arguably no minor leaguer was more impressive than Jose Berrios, and Danny Santana took the title on the major league side. As 2015 rolls around, another position player looks to follow in Santana's footsteps at Target Field.

Eddie Rosario is without a doubt the name to watch. Progressing initially through the Twins system in the infield, more specifically second base, Rosario has since transitioned to patrolling the outfield. Over his five minor league seasons, Rosario has played 413 games, and split that almost right down the middle between the infield and outfield (204 games at second base and 209 games in the outfield). Playing left field in the Arizona Fall League, and center field for 50 games in 2014, Rosario is settling into his new home. Just because he is getting comfortable doesn't mean he's ready for the leap, but the additional details suggest that may be the next step.

Last season, Rosario spent the beginning of the season sitting on the sidelines, as he was suspended 50 games for use of a recreational drug. Missing time out of the gate, Rosario got off to a less than typical start, and struggled to the tune of a .237/.277/.396 slash line in 79 games with Double-A New Britain. Owning a career line of .294/.343/.485 across five minor league seasons, there's no doubt that the missed time hampered his performance. With the issues behind him, and coming off of a very strong performance to end the season in the Fall League (.330/.345/.410 18 RBI 10 SB 2 3B in 12 games), Rosario is trying to vault himself forward in major league spring training.

With the Twins having played six games in the Grapefruit League, Rosario has seen plenty of playing time, getting reps in five of those contests. Earlier this week, he hit his first home run of the spring, and he already has a double to his credit. Playing almost exclusively in left field, it's pretty apparent where the Twins see him contributing at the next level. Now the question becomes, when does the jump happen?

In 2014 Santana made his debut with the Twins on May 5, just under a month into the season. A player that the Twins probably don't have to worry about when it comes to Super 2 designations, Santana was given a quick promotion and immediately slid into the center field role vacated by Aaron Hicks. Minnesota had a hole in the outfield, and Santana was the option they chose. Prior to his promotion, Santana batted .241/.287/.343 across his first 27 games in the minors. After reaching Target Field, he went on to hit .319/.353/.472 for the Twins across 101 games. The numbers at the plate were ballooned by a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) over .400, but the output was still impressive. Now suggesting Rosario is the next prospect to take the leap, where does that leave us?

Prior to his suspension and down season last year, Rosario had twice appears on the top 100 prospects list by Baseball Prospectus (both in 2012 and 2014). His minor league numbers are vastly superior to Santana's, and his upside is arguably higher as well. Minnesota is set to start the season with Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter flanking Hicks in the outfield, with Jordan Schafer as the fourth option. Should Minnesota choose to give the big league club a boost, finding a place for Rosario early could be the best option. Hicks might be the player that things depend on, considering Schafer would need to be designated off the Twins roster.

No matter who cedes time however, getting Rosario to contribute at the major league level should be an early goal of the Twins. Like Santana before him, expecting an impressive output from the get go would not be a far-fetched idea.

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

No Offense, But Offense Isn't A Concern


Through five Spring Training games, the Minnesota Twins have compiled a record of 2-2-1 and have failed to score more than two runs in all but one of those games. With a nine run outburst in their Grapefruit League Opener against the Boston Red Sox, the Twins offense showed up for the lone time thus far down in Florida. While that may seem somewhat concerning, caution is best implemented in this situation.

Maybe most importantly, pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training roughly a week ahead of hitters. While it may seem like a nominal amount of time, factoring in that offense has already been down across Major League Baseball due to the strength of pitching, only compounds the issue. Then, a quick look across the diamond also should give reason for pause. Although the Twins have scored more than two runs only once in five games, their opponents have done so only twice in that time span.

For a Twins team that largely outperformed expectations when it came to offense a season ago, a slow start is an understandable reason for concern. That being said, Spring Training should continue to be largely representative of process moreso than results. You could just as easily assume that Twins pitching has been vastly improved based upon the early returns, but such a conclusion would likely be shortsighted as well.

A season ago, the Twins found unexpected offense in the form of Kurt Suzuki and Danny Santana. Both players largely outproduced their expectations, and shouldn't be relied upon to repeat the performance. However, that doesn't spell doom for the Twins. One of the best hitters in the last month of the season was Oswaldo Arcia. Working with hitting coach Tom Brunansky, Arcia seems to have found a new approach at the plate, on that is conducive of much more positive results.

On top of Arcia adding some excitement to the lineup, the Twins primed for aggression in 2015. There's no doubt that Torii Hunter was brought in with mentorship of Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton in mind. On a $10.5 million you can bet the Twins are expecting Hunter to produce, and if his recent seasons are any indication (.295/.327/.456 slash line since 2013), he should do just that. Along with Hunter, if the Twins can get Hicks to show even a glimmer of the offensive promise he proved after his demotion a season ago, they should be in a great place.

At this point in time, it's fair to have some reason for caution when it comes to the Twins lineup. the offensive output was above where it should have been, and probably will regress in 2015. Knowing the pitching staff is in a better place, and that the Twins have added other pieces, makes that an ok thing however. For now, just enjoy the Miguel Sano longballs and know that the run production will come.

The Twins are scheduled to take on the Blue Jays today in Dunedin, Florida at 12:05 pm CT.