Twins Need to See Pillars Produce

 

Over the course of 2021 the Minnesota Twins have found more ways to lose in 32 games than most teams can accomplish over the course of a full season. If going into the year it was assumed this club would be good, a complete 180 this early doesn’t seem fair. The problem? Are these players actually good?

 

Here’s the deal, Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen has been bad. It’s among the worst in baseball across more than a handful of categories. He’s dealing with a group that the front office banked more on development than production, and regression has hit everyone not named Taylor Rogers. Despite a winning record in nine-inning games, this team gets crushed the minute relief help comes in.

 

Although the lineup has shown signs of life at times, the length of it is immediately called into question when looking at assumed producers. I think it was a fair assessment to assume 2020 Mitch Garver wasn’t right. Jorge Polanco dealt with an ankle injury, and Max Kepler clearly left something to be desired. Fast forward a year however, and that trio is as confusing as ever.

 

The backstop that broke out in 2019 probably was never going to resurface for the Twins. What Garver did that year was truly unreal, and for a late-blooming catcher, probably unrepeatable. It should’ve been assumed that Minnesota’s catching tandem could be among the best in baseball this season with how Ryan Jeffers looked in his 2020 debut. Garver hasn’t caught up to the fastball again though, and despite a .748 OPS, has just not really put it together yet.

 

Moving from shortstop to second base was going to be huge for Polanco defensively. A surgically repaired ankle also gave the Twins middle infielder a clean bill of health. He seems to be staying in on swings more than he did a year ago, but the results still leave plenty to be desired. Polanco’s .679 OPS is just north of his 2020 mark, and while he does have a 97 OPS+ on the season, a .236/.306 average and on-base percentage is not where the Twins can afford him to be. Extended in 2019, he really hasn’t been a good player since.

 

In the outfield there’s been more uncertainty than ever this season. Alex Kirilloff was left off the roster to start 2021, and Byron Buxton is now again on the shelf. Kepler has always been the mainstay from a health perspective, but his production has gone missing for the better part of the past two years. Just recently getting on the longball board this season, Kepler owns a disappointing .664 OPS through his first 22 games. The average is hovering near the Mendoza Line, and the .855 OPS from 2019 looks to be from an alternate universe.

 

The reality for Rocco is that the players he was counting on have by and large been there this season. In mass quantities however, they’ve fallen flat. It’s great that Byron Buxton looks like an MVP candidate, Josh Donaldson is a monster, and Nelson Cruz is ageless. Behind that though, it’s really hard to see anything that suggests this team is good anywhere but on paper. Assume producers need to start coming through, and it’s this trio that may be chief among them.

 

There’s still time for the 2021 Minnesota Twins to turn things around, but it’s getting late early, and it only gets darker if the light switch doesn’t flip for some guys very soon.

Twins Tinkering With Lineups

The Minnesota Twins have now played nine games in the 2021 Major League Baseball season thus far and are scheduled for their tenth today. They haven’t had a fully healthy roster for a full game yet, but batting order positions are starting to take shape. Where and when should we consider questioning them?

 

For most of his tenure as the skipper for Minnesota, Rocco Baldelli has opted to bat lefty Max Kepler in the leadoff hole. He’s a non-traditional fit there as speed isn’t his game, and he is more of a power player than high batting average guy. Through nine games this year Kepler hasn’t batted higher than cleanup and he’s been slotted in as low as ninth.

 

Looking at all options, the ideal fit for Rocco would seem to be Luis Arraez. The former second basemen turned utility man has played all over the place in 2021 and will continue to get reps in the outfield at least until Alex Kirilloff is promoted. In seven of his 10 starts he’ll have led off, but curiously he’s also batted 9^th on the other three occasions. This is where the weirdness comes in.

 

From purely a speculative standpoint it seems that Baldelli is looking to shield Luis from left-handed pitchers. Despite an .890 OPS in his career against righties, that drops to .645 against lefties. The caveat here however is that Arraez loses power and average against southpaws, but he still owns a career .371 OBP against them and is synonymous with solid at bats.

 

Before making any determinations, it’s worth bringing up the emergence of Byron Buxton. I have long believed he was primed for a breakout 2021, and so far, that’s looking to be selling things short. Playing otherworldly, and especially at the dish, he’s now drawing starts in the leadoff spot. Traditionally that would make a lot of sense given his speed and gap potential, but things are a bit different for him in recent years. Buxton has found his power stroke.

 

For Byron there’s a few tendencies that run opposite of what Arraez is capable of. While Byron absolutely has thirty homer power potential, he’s still not going to be the on-base asset without hitting for a relatively high average. 2020 was an outlier for sure, but the walk rate is never going to be something Minnesota’s centerfielder hangs his hat on. More alike the former leadoff guy in Kepler, Buxton is plenty capable of putting a charge into a ball and generating extra-base hits.

 

This all may become moot in a few days when Josh Donaldson returns to the Twins lineup, but I think there’s some concrete decisions that can and should be made here. Luis Arraez bats leadoff when he’s in the lineup. It shouldn’t matter where he plays, who is pitching, or what day of the week it is. Don’t overthink it, let your table setter set the table. From there, Buxton has earned his way into the two-hole. That’s a spot occupied lately by the likes of Kyle Garlick. Minnesota is a bit stretched offensively in left field right now, and Garlick is fine, but he’s a bottom third hitter. Buxton should be batting in a run-producing position while still allowing him the ability to be on base for the bigger boppers. Donaldson is going to hit here when he returns, but then moving Buxton to third makes a good deal of sense.

 

Lineup construction is certainly nuanced, and it really only matters in the first inning and on a relatively minute scale. That said, Arraez should be generating as many at bats as he can for Minnesota, and Buxton should always be in a spot to come up and drive runners in.

Topps Series 1 Kicks of Baseball Season

While we’re still a few days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective Spring Training homes, baseball season gets underway with the release of 2020 Topps Series 1 on Wednesday. The first offering of the hobby for the 2020 season means baseball is around the corner.

Kicking things off in a big way this year, Topps is hosting the Million Card Rip Party today at Jerry World. As group breaks have become more prominent within the hobby, the card company sought out a handful of popular breakers and gathered them all at AT&T Stadium. They’ll showcase the event live, and collectors will get some of their first looks at the new cards.

2020 Series 1 has a chance to go down as the best initial flagship offering ever. While it’s normally Series 2 or Update that highlights the sport’s best rookies, this season is somewhat unique. American League Rookie of the Year winner Yordan Alvarez will get his first rookie card, and the class also includes young stars like Gavin Lux and Bo Bichette. Deep and with plenty of star power, this group could have staying power for quite some time.

Specifically, from the Twins, Lewis Thorpe is the lone rookie card in the set. However, Marwin Gonzalez gets a Minnesota card, as do Nelson Cruz and Taylor Rogers. Autographs are aplenty from the Twins, and they include everyone from Luis Arraez to Bert Blyleven. Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Jake Odorizzi have some pretty big chase cards to search for, and there will be some chrome offerings of former Topps line Turkey Red littered into retail.

Given Thorpe is the only rookie for Minnesota, and he’s not seen as a desired commodity in the hobby, it would really only be the hits that drive a decent return from Twins subjects. However, the manufactured relics including the Sleeve Patch and Rookie Retrospectives sets could wind up being some of the best-looking manufactured offerings we’ve seen in years.

Another takeaway from Topps’ early season checklists is that the Twins will have some new names making signing appearances in 2020. It appears Trevor May, Mitch Garver, and Jorge Polanco will all be autographers in Topps product this year. With so much Rod Carew and Bert Blyleven focused content in the hobby of late, new names generating hype for Twins fans is a must. Hopefully more Joe Mauer cards will filter back into production at some point, but the Bomba Squad putting Minnesota back on the map is a great start.

You can find hobby boxes of 2020 Topps Series 1 at your local card shop, and blaster boxes as well as other retail configurations will be available at Target, Walmart, and Walgreens.

Will Twins Double Down on Extension Excellence?

It hasn’t quite been a year, and unfortunately, we aren’t yet to the point of embarking upon Fort Myers for Spring Training, but the Minnesota Twins signed Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to contract extensions last offseason. Both deals felt incredibly team friendly at the time, but Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. already had preconditioned us for those feelings. Now after the first season into their extensions with the Twins, Kepler and Polanco have already paid for themselves.

For two straight seasons the Twins were looking for Kepler to take the next step forward. First, he didn’t hit lefties, and then he didn’t hit righties. After toiling to the tune of a low .700 OPS for his first three big league seasons, the German native broke out with an .855 OPS in 2019. His 36 home runs nearly surpassed the previous two seasons combined, and he took on a bigger role than one may have ever predicted.

Like his teammate and extension partner, Jorge Polanco finally arrived as well. There were glimpses of the bat, and that was always his calling card, but inconsistent playing time over his first three years didn’t result in ideal production. Getting into 153 games during 2019, Polanco parlayed the exposure into an .841 OPS that was only watered down by some late season slumping. He finished with a .295 average and was in contention for a batting title through June.

When the dust settled Kepler had accumulated 4.4 fWAR which Fangraphs estimates being worth $35.3 million. Polanco posted a 4.0 fWAR, valuing his production at $32.3 million. Both players, in the first years of their $35 and $25 million extensions respectively, outproduced the total contract valuation. It’s that sort of performance that Minnesota was undoubtedly hoping for when offering up both deals, and although Polanco’s sagged in part because of a previous suspension, the reward was an immediate payday in exchange for belief of future production.

This offseason the Twins opportunities are less certain. Miguel Sano looks the part of a star slugger, but his defensive acumen leaves much to be desired. Derek Falvey could instead choose to go year-to-year on that type of player, leaving the flexibility to move on if and when things hit the skids. Eddie Rosario is a power hitter that does little else at the plate, and he looks more destined to be jettisoned than act as a future cog in this wheel. It’s Jose Berrios that’s most desirable to lock down, but does a guy knocking on the door of the upper tier really want to give away his earning potential?

Then there’s the case of Byron Buxton, a transcendent talent that only remains in the way of himself. Injury has cost him time on the field, and that’s really been the only downfall over the course of his career. Even when the offense lagged behind the exceptional fielding, he was so good in center that it allowed for his lackluster production at the plate to be overlooked. If there’s any sort of belief in keeping him on the field consistently, then 2019 was the embodiment of a turned corner and complete player ready to blast off. Like Berrios, Buxton has plenty of future earnings at stake here, but the injury situation could cloud the future before it ever arrives.

Minnesota’s front office made conscious decisions when it came to wrapping up foundational pieces last offseason, and they nailed both. They’ll have similar opportunities this time around, and being flush with cash, there’s little reason for them not to support the belief in their own assessments. These things take two sides to consummate any action, but the Twins certainly would love to come up on the winnings side in year one for the second season in a row.

The Death of Unwritten Rules

As analytics have crept into the game of baseball and taken a foothold as the chief form of evaluation, players from all different eras rail against the game in its current state. The game has definitely changed to cater towards the exceptional athletes that play it today, and the sport has taken notice as well. Unwritten rules have forever (and will always) be part of baseball, but there’s a certain aspect still waiting to be phased out.

The idea that baseball polices itself has long been one that has held weight. As the game has adapted to use slogans like “Let the kids play” and adopted rule changes at bases and the plate, it’s clear there’s an emphasis on keeping these elite athletes on the field of play. With that in mind, it’s beyond time to put an end to the retaliatory pitch.

In last night’s Twins and Rangers game, outfielder Jake Cave swung on a 3-0 pitch and lined a single into the outfield. It was a 13-6 game and in the top of the 9^th inning. Cave immediately apologized to pitcher Shawn Kelley upon reaching first base, and he appeared to have lost track of the count. Kelley overlooked the acknowledgement and after going 3-0 to the Max Kepler, plunked him on the arm.

Discussion from the booth, from Roy Smalley and Dick Bremer, immediately turned to that act as retaliation for Cave’s transgression. In a game that Minnesota was blowing out Texas, he had the audacity to swing his bat. Kelley couldn’t find the zone for a second straight batter, and then quit competing to hurl a ball into the arm of the Twins centerfielder. A sport that now has rules in place to protect its players, watched as a pitcher hurled a pitch into a batter, simply because he was upset.

I have no problem with avoidance of the mound, looking presentable on the field, carrying yourself with a level of self-respect, or any number of lesser unwritten rules. I do have an issue with the idea that a pitcher gets to throw a projectile at a batter any time they feel scorned or upset. While wearing a pitch isn’t the end of the world, taking a 90-mph baseball to any part of your body doesn’t feel good, and can certainly open the door to a more substantial injury.

There’s a level of respect shown to an opponent taking one base at a time or giving away pitches in a blowout game. That’s not a necessity though and is something the winning team does to show mercy. Expecting that to be the practice, and then reacting negatively when it doesn’t take place is lunacy. Minnesota wouldn’t have been afforded the good graces of the Rangers simply striking out should they have mounted a 9^th inning comeback. Deciding when the game no longer is worth playing in the middle of it is not for any one person to opine. On top of that, this instance stemmed from a guy who clearly stated his intentions and felt bad for what he considered a misstep.

At the end of the day it isn’t that Jake Cave got his teammate Max Kepler hit. That’s what happened, but it was the idiocy of Rangers pitcher Shawn Kelley that decided an attempt to injure an opponent was fair response to him failing at his job. The easiest way to avoid having your feelings hurt in defeat is to steer clear of situations where you cause self-embarrassment. Last night the Rangers were an abomination, and then they doubled down on that fact in how they carried out the 9^th inning.

Hopefully the Twins find no need to keep the beanball war going tonight, but I certainly hope every dinger that leaves the park ends with a bat flip landing mere feet from the mound and the pitcher that offered it up.

Lift Proving to be Final Key for Kepler

Max Kepler used to be relatively vocal about his decision to avoid an increased launch angle. He wasn’t looking solely to hit home runs, and while his goal was to enter the zone on a level swing path, he was just fine with ground balls. Former Twins beat writer Mike Berardino talked to the outfielder back in the spring of 2018 and Kepler said as much there. Now he’s become one of the best outfielders in baseball, and it’s because he’s changed his approach.

Max Kepler’s launch angle progression throughout his career is a thing of beauty.

At 18 degrees this year, Kepler is finally optimizing his swing for his ability to hit the ball hard.

Oh btw, at 91.2 MPH avg exit velo, Kepler is hitting the ball harder than he ever has before. pic.twitter.com/R9T0HjGVC3

— Andrew Thares (@AndrewThares) June 20, 2019

Baseball has transitioned to a sport where getting lift on the baseball provides the optimal route for success. As the game invokes shifts and the ball is now juicier than ever, lifting the pill over defenders is the most direct path to generating extra-base hits. Although this may not be a direct focus for Kepler, it’s a principle that James Rowson has impressed upon Twins hitters and it’s one Max is putting to use.

In 2019 Kepler owns an 18.5 degrees average launch angle. Last year that mark was 16.2 degree and in 2017 it sat at just 12.6 degrees of lift. Launch angle on its own isn’t conducive production, but Max has paired it with an enhanced exit velocity as well. The 90.9 mph mark this season improves upon an 89 mph mark last year and an 88 mph tally the season before. Summarizing it easily, harder and higher is producing the best results of his career.

The percentages reflect what we are seeing in the raw data as well. Kepler owns a career low 35.7% ground ball rate and a career best 18.3% HR/FB number. His 42.6% hard hit rate is nearly seven percent higher than his career average and over a five percent improvement from 2018. Despite chasing and whiffing a bit more often, the contact rate is right on par with career norms and contact within the zone is a career best 93.9%.

The #MNTwins signed Max Kepler to a 5yr/$35MM deal this offseason.

He’s been worth $22.8MM in 2019 already per @fangraphs

The #MNTwins signed Jorge Polanco to a 5yr/$27.75MM deal this offseason.

He’s been worth $22.2MM in 2019 already per @fangraphs

— Ted (@tlschwerz) June 20, 2019

Through just 70 games played Kepler has the 7^th best fWAR total among outfielders. He’s the second best in the American League trailing only a guy named Mike Trout. Minnesota saw the value in their German native this offseason and extended him for $35 million over five years. Fangraphs estimates his worth as already being over half of that mark ($21.8MM).

When you hear launch angle from a place of scrutiny it generally is assumptive of the idea that players are simply swinging up through the zone attempting to get lift. The practice is built around creating hard contact on the bottom portion of the baseball. A level swing can still be utilized with the point of contact being honed in. Combining lift with an enhanced exit velocity is where the power stroke comes from. As balls are being thrown harder than ever, they’re also being put in play at a similarly increasing velocity.

Minnesota’s instruction may not have transformed Kepler’s swing plane through the zone, but it’s certainly worked to adjust the contact point and process when putting the ball in play. Regardless of if the baseball leaves the yard, Kepler is hitting the ball harder and longer than ever before. It’s because of that fact he’s experiencing a jump in performance and the Twins look to be the benefactor of belief over the next five years.

Making the Most of Max

Expecting somewhat of a breakout campaign for Max Kepler in 2018 was a relatively accepted possibility going into last season. When the dust settled, his .727 OPS was the lowest of his career and there was no denying his performance left plenty to be desired. Rectifying the ability to hit left-handed pitchers, he fell off against righties and the offense tanked. 2019 represents new opportunity, and according to at least one project system, there’s some reason to get excited.

Steamer projections have the Twins outfielder pegged for 2.6 fWAR in 2019, a mark that would replicate his 2018 season. Although the result is similar, the path to get there is a new one. A .779 OPS with a .336 OBP is suggested for the German native and those would both be massive boosts to career .730 and .313 marks respectively. So, in other words, the bat arrives.

Last season Kepler’s value was heavily tied to his defensive presence. With Byron Buxton shelved due to ineffectiveness and injury, Max was called to take on a more demanding presence in the outfield. He tallied 390 innings in center after having played 90 total in the two years prior. His 10 DRS and 10.8 UZR both blew previous tallies out of the water, and even the eye test suggested that the mainstay in the Minnesota outfield was a great glove.

I’ve previously discussed some of the reasons that Kepler appeared to be hampered in 2018. He has consistently vocalized a desire to put the ball on the ground, and while his hit profile suggested he was accomplishing lifting the ball more last season, it wasn’t at an optimal level. His launch angle increased, and the hard-hit rate was a career high, but a lack of line drives held him back given the ground ball outputs and failed HR/FB ratio.

On top of how he was putting the ball in play, Kepler shifted his platoon splits drastically year over year. After struggling mightily with lefties in 2017, his .745 OPS was a drastic improvement. Posting an .828 OPS against righties in 2017 kept his head above water, but that mark dipped all the way down to .720 last season. Settling in more of a middle ground would give Rocco Baldelli a greater assurance that Kepler is capable of being deployed daily and expecting a high level of value no matter who is on the bump.

Looking ahead to what Steamer sees of Kepler in the season ahead, it’s hard not to draw loose comparisons to some of the realities Byron Buxton faces. Kepler has elevated his defensive profile to be a real asset on its own and pushing his OPS anywhere near the .800 mark would genuinely elevate him to a star player level. I’ve found myself bullish on Max believing him to be better than the likes of Eddie Rosario going forward, and it’s this all-encompassing ability that would drive that notion. Max doesn’t have to be a world beater at the plate to take the next step, but if a couple of tweaks are made, this is a guy we’re talking about for years to come.

There’s long been a notion that defense doesn’t slump, so maybe the Steamer projections shouldn’t come as a surprise. If Kepler is in fact the second-most valuable Twins player in 2019, I’m not sure that’s anything but positive. Needing a handful of former top prospects to hit on all cylinders this season, Minnesota will be successful as a sum of its greater parts. With the calendar now turned over, Kepler has an opportunity to be the guy everything indicates he’s capable of. Now we wait and see what happens.

The Twins Future Foundation

As much of a disaster as 2018 has been for the Minnesota Twins, it's hard to look back and call it anything but expected. The reality is that injuries, suspensions, and ineffectiveness destroyed any possibility of a return trip to the postseason. Going forward however, the future is bright (I wrote about that here). The same foundation that was going to be relied upon this season remains key for the years ahead. That begs the question of who is there, and who are we waiting on?

While Paul Molitor and the combination of both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have earned some blame for their roster decisions this season, none of those three would be positioned to overcome the biggest elephant in the room. Experiencing lost seasons for both Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton was going to be a hill too steep to climb for this squad. It also represents that reality that each of those players remain integral to the future exploits of the organization as well. Although both of the top two names have sputtered, others have produced. Let's take a temperature check on where the core for the Twins youth is in relation to being able to provide a solid foundation for the future.

Eddie Rosario: Arrived

Somewhat of a knucklehead, maturity was arguably the greatest thing working against the Twins left fielder early on in his career. Posting just a .735 OPS and a 97 OPS+ (100 being average) through his first two MLB seasons, there was plenty of room for growth. Fast forward to today, and Minnesota has a legitimate All Star on their hands, as well as a top 20 player in MLB in terms of fWAR.

Since May 2017, Rosario owns a .296/.336/.518 slash line. He's still a free swinger going after pitches out of the zone nearly 40% of the time, but the 12.3% swinging strike rate is significantly lower than the roughly 15% average he was at in his first two years. After posting down numbers defensively in 2017, he's back to being a very good asset out there and the mental lapses appear to be few and far between.

Two years ago Rosario looked like a guy Minnesota would be questionable in offering a contract extension. At this point, they should make it a priority.

Byron Buxton: Still Waiting

There's no way to sugar coat it, 2018 has been an abomination for the Twins centerfielder. After winning a Gold Glove as well as the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2017, Byron has played in just 28 MLB games this season. He garnered MVP votes a year ago, and hasn't looked even close to the player that emerged down the stretch. Among batters with at least 90 plate appearances, Buxton's .383 OPS is second to last. Injuries and ineffectiveness is thew narrative here.

The flip side of this coin is that Buxton already has over 300 G at the big league level under his belt, and he;s yet to turn 25 years old. He's the best defender in the game when healthy, and that helps to soften the blow of an offensive impact that's yet to catch up. There's far too much talent here to stay down for long, but consistency and availability is a must. Getting him back at the end of the year, and playing games somewhere this offseason could be huge. Buxton has to be a cornerstone for the Twins going forward, and I'm still fine betting on that being the case.

Miguel Sano: Still Waiting

When analyzing Miguel Sano's output over the course of his career, there will never be a down time that doesn't coincide with narratives pointing towards weight. As he has ballooned at the waistline, he's been scrutinized for his play. While being out of shape never helps an athlete, I think the bigger narrative is the one Minnesota employed in sending the slugger to Fort Myers. This is a story of accountability, work ethic, and desire. Sano puts on weight when he chooses not to buy into those areas. He has flashed the ability to be Minnesota's best power hitter since Harmon Killebrew. Right now Miguel knows that, but it's up to him whether or not he wants to work hard enough to achieve that.

In his time back with the Twins since his hiatus on the farm, signs have been encouraging. Not only did he buy into a conditioning program enough to come back a more trim version of himself, but the plate appearances have been better as well. The hot corner doesn't look like a spot he's incapable of holding down, and the power potential there remains immense. Sano left a .203/.270/.405 line in the middle of June, and has compiled a .250/.368/.344 mark in his return. He was swinging through 16.1% of pitches, and has drastically dropped that amount to 11.4%.

We're still experiencing a small sample size here, but the returns remain good. This offseason, Sano is going to need to display continued buy in. This isn't a flash in the pan type of change, and it has the ability to be career altering. If he's able to close the book on who he was, and be this type of an athlete, then the sky remains the limit.

Max Kepler: Turning a Corner

Looked at as somewhat of a breakout candidate for 2018, this season has been filled with ups and downs for Kepler. He came out of the gates extremely hot in April, and then cooled significantly by June. Since July 1 though, the German native owns an .890 OPS and has launched six longballs amidst his 12 extra-base hits. On the year he's still hitting lefties better than righties, and his launch angle continues to be an area of promise.

Despite being outspoken regarding a desire to put the ball on the ground, it seems Kepler has bought into the reality that success is through the air. He very well could reach the 20 homer plateau for the first time in his career, and he's made significant strides in the plate discipline department. A deeper dive into batted ball numbers suggests that Kepler is getting fairly unlucky, and that should only help to fuel a late season burst.

Jose Berrios: Arrived, but Not Fully

Owning a 3.0 fWAR on the season, Berrios is currently ranked as the 15th best starter in baseball. The 3.51 ERA and 3.58 FIP are in line, and there's not a number he's put up that isn't a career best. What's truly impressive about that however, is we still aren't seeing the best of him. At just 24 years old, Berrios was invited to his first All Star game. His success has include four clunkers with 5 ER or more, and he's got another three starts in which he's allowed 4 ER. Expecting perfection each time out isn't realistic, but 36% of his starts lending themselves to significant improvement is a very fun thing to project forward.

Having kept home runs largely in check, Berrios has stifled one of his largest downfalls. Slight in stature, he's been able to get enough movement on his pitches to combat the throwing plane in which the ball travels from his hand. We've seen a lot of good starts from Berrios this season, and we've also been privy to opportunities for growth. Although he'll likely set career bests across the board this year, we're just scratching the surface. He's got the ability to round into a bonafide ace, and it's a development that Minnesota has craved for years.

Kepler Looking for Next Step

The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 season with postseason expectations. After appearing in the Wild Card game a season ago, that result was viewed as a worst case scenario this time around. Fast forward to where we are now, and nothing has gone according to plan. For the Twins to exceed expectations, optimal performance from home grown stars was going to be a must. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have drawn the headlines, but where does Max Kepler fall into all of this?

During the 2017 campaign, Kepler posted a career best .737 OPS. It was a very slight improvement over his 2016 season, and the thought was that he could be a prime candidate for a breakout in the year ahead. Through 96 games this season, he owns just a .731 OPS and hasn't taken the step forward that was imagined for him. That's the bad news. The good news is this story is still being written.

On the surface, it seems that Kepler is simply repeating the same level of production he's had over the course of his big league career. Diving a bit deeper however, we see some narratives that suggest much more could be coming.

Before diving into any underlying stats, Kepler's slash line this year is interesting in its own right. His .226 batting average is a career worst, but the .314 OBP is a career best. With 44 walks already, he's going to easily set a career high in that category. The German born outfielder also already has 13 longballs to his credit, and reaching 20 for the first time in his career seems like a foregone conclusion. Striking out less, walking more, and leaving the yard at a higher rate are all avenues for success.

Unquestionably, the biggest development for Kepler has been his regained ability to hit left-handed pitching. After posting a .453 OPS against southpaws last season, he now owns an .831 OPS against those same pitchers in the current campaign. Oddly he's fallen off a bit against righties, owning just a .689 OPS, but eight of his 13 homers have come against opposite armed pitchers. Being able to even out the splits, or more desirably mash righties again, would significantly raise Kepler's water level across the board.

Looking at the quality of balls Max is putting in play we can see signs of a potential breakthrough ready to happen. Although his average sits at .226 on the year, Kepler is generating an unreasonably low .239 BABIP. That mark is significantly below the .276 tally from 2017, and given the career high 38.6 hard hit rate, there's plenty of room for growth.

In previous interviews Kepler has turned his nose at the launch angle revolution. He's actually been goal in saying that it was his goal to put the ball on the ground. By now we know that isn't a viable path to success in the big leagues, and Kepler's numbers have begun to turn away from that. In 2018 he owns a career low 37.9% ground ball rate, and a 45.5% fly ball rate. If there's missed opportunity here, it comes in the form of a HR/FB ratio sitting at 10.3%. Right now Kepler may be getting too far under the ball, and staying within career norms at a 16.6% line drive rate, he's got a bit of room to flatten out the balls he's elevating.

Earlier I touched on the heightened level of plate discipline that Kepler has shown this season, and that's obviously a direct results of his efforts as well. In 2018 he's dropped his swinging strike rate all the way down to 7.4%. That new number is nearly a 2% decrease from a season ago, and a full percent lower than his career average. On top of missing the ball less, he's also chasing pitches out of the zone at a career low 24.9%. In short, it adds up to the perfect storm.

Right now the sum of Kepler's parts has plenty of room for growth. What's a very encouraging sign is that he's hardly defined as the player with a .226 batting average. Continuing to sting the ball while working to optimize his launch angle should only help to drive the BABIP north. As he's able to settle in more against righties, the damage only has an opportunity to become universal. There's been a lot asked of Kepler in a season where Byron Buxton has been nonexistent, but the growth opportunity for a player that's just 25 can do wonders down the road.

No matter what it currently seems like, the best is yet to come for Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins.

Kepler's Breakout Still In Progress

One of the most logical candidates to have a breakout season for the Minnesota Twins in 2018 was right fielder Max Kepler. The talented German had flashed ability to do it all down on the farm, and despite being a solid regular for Minnesota, didn't yet seem to have put it all together at the highest level. Now just under two months into the regular season, we've seen the start of the breakout, but rest assured that there's more to come.

In early April, I wrote about Kepler's approach at the plate. He's been relatively vocal about not intending to increase his launch angle, and instead hit the ball hard on the ground. Thankfully he hasn't followed through with that practice, and he's benefited from elevating the baseball in 2018. Getting more loft on the ball, while continuing to hit it hard, is absolutely a strong blueprint for success. What's even more encouraging for the Minnesota right-fielder is that we haven't seen the results indicative of just how good the approach has been thus far.

On the season, Kepler has posted a career best .803 OPS. He has 19 extra base hits through his first 169 plate appearances, and he's already tallied six longballs. The .250 average is just a slight bump from his .243 resting spot a year ago, but the .337 OBP is indicative of an approach that has yielded an incredible 22/20 K/BB ratio. After struggling to hit lefties last season, even to the point of being platooned against them, he's flipped the script entirely. Kepler owns a 1.120 OPS vs LHP in 2018, while posting a .694 OPS against RHP. The expectation should have always been that he'd hit both types of pitchers given his minor league track record, but this level of production is a very nice surprise.

As good as Kepler has been for Paul Molitor though, the best part is that we're probably just scratching the surface. In 2018 thus far, Max owns just a .256 BABIP to go with his .250 average. That number seems unsustainably low given the numbers surrounding it.

With as well as Kepler is elevating the ball, more impressively yet is how hard he's hitting it. The 44.1% hard hit rate is a career best by over 10%, and he'd putting the ball on the ground a career low 37.8% of the time. Despite those factors working in his favor, his 10.5% HR/FB rate suggests there's plenty of room for growth.

On top of the quality generated behind contact, Kepler isn't getting cheated at the dish either. His 7.7% swinging strike rate is a career best, and he's chasing pitches just 26.5% of the time, a career low. He's also setting another career high with an 83.5% contact rating. If anything, Kepler could be a bit more choosy in an effort to boost his pitchers per plate appearance above 4.0 (currently 3.91) in an effort to see something more juicy.

Trying to tie a bow on what the numbers are telling us, Max Kepler has basically put the big leagues on notice. He's driving the ball with authority, and creating the best contact numbers of his career. On top of that, he's doing it against pitchers who attack him from both sides of the plate, and he's created a blueprint that should only help his counting stats to further balloon from here on out. While Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar have paced the Twins in the early going, a blistering stretch from Max could very well be right around the corner.

Kepler Committing Even if He's Not All In

Over the offseason and into spring training, plenty of discussions were had with Max Kepler in regards to his approach. Media covering the Twins probed, and I'd imagine that hitting coach James Rowson continued to challenge the young German. After failing to take a big step forward in 2017, it continues to seem like there's so much more potential left in there. Through the early part of 2018 however, it seems that Kepler has made a few tweaks, and given his comments, they may come as somewhat of a surprise.

When talking with Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press back in March, Kepler said "I'm not going to be swinging up and doing all that." He not that "it's not about launch angle" for him, and that his goal is to get his "bat head in the zone as early as possible." There's nothing wrong with any of those comments, but in recent years, we've seen the data suggest that the best avenue for success when putting the ball in play is by doing so in the air.

Kepler 2017

The reality at the big league level, is that ground balls simply don't equate to consistently high-yielding results. Major league players are more than capable of handling routine plays on the ground, and most are just fine turning even the spectacular opportunity into an out. Whether lifting the ball for liners in the gaps, or sending it flying for home runs over the fence, success in the game today comes through the air.

Despite Kepler's comments suggesting he isn't ready to adopt that principle, the results suggest that he may have seen the fruits the process is able to bear. After owning a 12.7 degree launch angle on average in 2017, he's boosted that to a 14.2 degree mark this season. In doing so, he's also seen his fly ball percentage go from 39.5% in 2017, to a whopping 53.6% this season. While getting the ball in the air, he currently has (an unsustainable, but notable anyways) a 20% HR/FB rate in comparison to just an 11.5% mark from a season ago.

Obviously getting the ball in the air also requires you to make strong contact. In that department as well, Kepler has upped the ante. He's generating a career best 42.9% hard hit rate, and pitch recognition seems to be something he's a bit more honed in on as well. With a career 29.5% chase rate, and a 28.5% mark from 2017, he's toting just a 25.6% chase rate thus far in the current campaign.

Kepler 2018

For a guy like Kepler, being able to generate enough power for extra base hits will be key to taking the next step forward. While he does have plenty of speed at his disposal (he did have 13 triples in 2015 at Double-A), being considered a true threat as a corner outfielder relies upon some thump rearing its head. What's encouraging is that Kepler's frame has always suggested that it will come, and the output has displayed a reality that it may just be a small tweak here or there from sticking for good.

Right now, it's plenty early to be drawing any season-long conclusions, but you absolutely have to be impressed with the results. If Kepler was consulted right now, I'm not sure that he'd agree in his approach being changed at all. It's also not particularly fair to attribute his early success solely to the lift he's applied to the baseball. However, if he's being fair, there's little to detract from the results at this point, and we have a measurable process to point towards.

The Guys Carrying the Twins

We've made it, it's finally here, the last day without meaningful baseball for the next six months has arrived. On March 29th, the Minnesota Twins will kick off the 2018 Major League Baseball season with Jake Odorizzi toeing the rubber against Dylan Bundy and the Baltimore Orioles. Having offered some opinions on the league-wide awards, I figured now would be a good time to dive into my predictions for the hometown club.

Going into the year, expectations are relatively high for Paul Molitor's group. They're coming off a Postseason berth and have the advantage of playing in a weak division. Although the gap may not yet have been closed on the Cleveland Indians, there's no argument that it hasn't been made substantially smaller (at least on paper). If the Twins are going to make noise in the Central, American League, and across Major League Baseball as a whole this year, these are the guys who will be a big part of the process.

Team MVP- Miguel Sano

Despite being the reigning MVP, and entering a contract year, I think Sano overtakes Brian Dozier. Coming off an offseason that saw plenty of ups and downs, the third basemen appears all system go. There's no suspension looming, and the rod inserted into his leg doesn't appear to be holding him back in the slightest. Although the numbers don't mean much, Sano turned in an impressive spring, and they bat is absolutely going to play. I'd bet heavily on this being the first 30 home run season of his career, and pushing towards 50 is hardly out of the question if he can stay healthy. Twins fans have been waiting for his emergence since being a teenager, and Miguel Sano is finally ready to explode.

Pitcher of the Year- Jake Odorizzi

A season ago, Orodizzi posted the worst ERA of his career, was above 5.00 FIP for the first time, and walked a career worst 3.8 batters per nine. Why in the world would he be the best Twins pitcher at 28 years old? Well, I think there's plenty to be made of the back injury that he pitched through for the bulk of the season. Odorizzi isn't going to get much of a defensive boost as he already played in front of a good one with the Rays. I do believe he has middle-of-the-rotation stuff however, and the floor is very high with him. Jose Berrios has the ability to be a better pitcher than Odorizzi, but there's a decent level of volatility there as well.

Rookie of the Year- Mitch Garver

After finally making his debut in September 2017, I believed that Mitch Garver was deserving of a promotion much earlier. He absolutely raked at Triple-A Rochester, and it's his bat that brings intrigue behind the dish. Pairing with Jason Castro, Paul Molitor (won't but) should platoon his two backstops. Garver can dominate left-handed pitching, and he's more than capable behind the plate. He'll throw out his fair share of would be base stealers, and I'd expect him to be a bright spot for Minnesota. Deviating away from the veteran backstop that offers little in terms of offensive upside, Garver has the talent to be a true threat on his own.

Most Improved- Max Kepler

Last season saw the emergence of Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and even Jorge Polanco down the stretch. Miguel Sano has been a known commodity for a bit, even if I believe there's more in the tank. This season though, I think we see Max Kepler really begin to come into his own. For a while I've been of the belief that Kepler could be cut from a similar cloth as Christian Yelich. A good defender with adequate speed that has a real ability at the plate. Thus far Kepler has struggled with lefties, and he's yet to really set himself in the batters box. Hitting the 20 home run plateau for the first time is a good bet, and it's really only the tip of his offensive ice berg.

Breakout Or Break Off With Max Kepler

Over the weekend, the Minnesota Twins missed out on Yu Darvish as he joined Chris Gimenez and the Chicago Cubs. While I feel a bit disappointed Derek Falvey and Thad Levine didn't position themselves better with a six year offer, it's now a moot point. At this juncture a pivot to available free agents and the trade market has become a new reality. On the latter point, Minnesota's most available asset seems to be Max Kepler. It's worth wondering though, is that a good thing?

A season ago, Kepler put up his highest OPS in the big league (.737), and got in his first full major league season. Coming into the 2016 season, Kepler debuted on all three (Baseball America, MLB, and Baseball Prospectus) Top 100 prospect lists, and ranked 30th, 44th, and 60th respectively. After putting together a steady upward trend in the minors, the belief was there that Minnesota had a real big league talent on their hands. While the .737 OPS is more than serviceable, it also leaves a bit to be desired. What I'm nearly certain about, is that Kepler is capable of harnessing that ability.

In 2017, Kepler became a platoon player down the stretch. With the Twins in the midst of a postseason race, Paul Molitor decided he simply couldn't have a player with a .453 OPS against left-handed pitching garnering significant at bats. Despite the .828 OPS against righties, only two of Kepler's 19 homers came off of southpaws, and he racked up a 40/7 K/BB ratio. Looking back to 2016, the numbers improve but hardly jump off the page. In his rookie year, Kepler compiled a .595 OPS against lefties with two of his 17 homers and a 34/10 K/BB. In short, Kepler owns a 74/17 K/BB against same-handed pitchers in the big leagues, and he's hit just four of his 36 longballs off of them.

You'd be hard pressed to argue Kepler deserves more than a platoon situation with those numbers (though I did find it frustrating at times in 2017). What's also fair to suggest is that he's a 25 year-old unfinished product who's shown an ability much better than what the big leagues have seen. Having never played Triple-A, Kepler's two best seasons in the minors came at Double-A in 2015, and High-A in 2014. Against lefties in those two campaigns he posted an .863 OPS (1 HR 15/12 K/BB) and a .691 OPS (1 HR 26/3 K/BB) respectively. The Double-A numbers are inflated some due to a season with 13 triples, but they are also buoyed by an approach that saw him walk more times than he struck out for the first time in his big league career.

During 2017, Kepler slightly decreased his chase rate, with slightly increasing his swinging strike percentage. His contact slipped slightly, but was on par with his career averages. His hard hit rate remained static, and the only notable dip among batted balls was a 3% drop in HR/FB ratio. What could be an untapped area of improvement is one of contention for Kepler, his launch angle. In 2016, the average on base hits fell at 10.4 degrees. That number came in at just 8.8 degrees a year ago. Parker Hageman of Twins Daily actually looked in depth on this topic as it pertain to Kepler last March. Kepler's approach is to line the ball, with backspin, or get right with ground balls. With the power and stroke he has, a heightened launch angle would likely bring a good deal more success.

What should be somewhat common sense is that a 25 year-old, highly regarded prospect, is far from a finished product. For Kepler to maximize his output in Minnesota however, the results will first need to change against pitchers attacking him from his side of the plate. There's a few keys for him to get there, with contact and launch angle being two of the avenues. What wouldn't be shocking is if it came together relatively quickly, and the German born big leaguer had a breakout season in front of him.

After making his way through Elizabethton at age 19, it took him stops at Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers before truly settling into his own. It wasn't until 2015 as a 22 year-old at Double-A that Kepler posted his first full season .800 OPS on the farm. That's hardly a knock on ability as much as it is a highlight of a growing process. Entering his third season with the Twins, and just the second as a regular out of the gate, seeing another leap forward would hardly be a miracle. That's where the crossroads of what to do next comes in.

Although there's still ample arms available on the market, Minnesota has been heavily connected to the trade market. With names like Chris Archer, Julio Teheran, and Jake Odorizzi among those thrown about, Kepler could be an enticing return. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have to decide what they see going forward however. In any trade scenario, you're going to have to give to get, but is the breakout coming for Max and just how big will it be.

For me, I'm still a bigger believer of Kepler's long term future than I am of Eddie Rosario. Kepler's trajectory suggests one of growth, while Rosario's has some gaping holes that can continue to be exploited. If Minnesota is to deal Max for pitching, I'd hope the return is also substantial and that he's viewed as a cornerstone piece. Zack Granite and LaMonte Wade are both nice fallback options, but I'd hesitate to put them in the same realm as Kepler projects to be. With just over a month until meaningful games get started, I assume we'll have clarity which direction this narrative falls soon enough.

Did The Twins Clone A Marlin?

At age 24, Max Kepler has now played 167 major league baseball games. The German-born product has a full season of big league experience under his belt, and the $800k investment Minnesota made in him looks to be paying off. When projecting what he could be in the future, there's one player that I can't seem to get out of my head. Enter the Marlins Christian Yelich.

I began making this comparison back in March of 2016, suggesting that Kepler could be a better version of the Marlins outfielder, or if nothing else, a very similar player. Now through 51 games in 2017, we're starting to see that come to fruition. Yelich was a top 25 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2013, while Kepler check into the top 50 just once (and only among two national outlets). However, their skillsets seem quite similar, as do their frames, and the numbers are starting to bear that out.

Through June 6, Chistian Yelish owns a .270/.348/.407 slash line with 14 extra base hits, seven of which have been homers. He's worked a 40/23 K/BB ratio, and he's driven in 25 runners. On the flip side, Max Kepler has compiled a .269/.348/.462 line in 2017, along with 21 extra base hits, also of which seven are homers. He owns a 40/21 K/BB ratio and has 25 RBIs to his credit.

Opening up the hood just a bit further, the underlying peripherals are all virtually the same as well. To illustrate just how close we're talking, take a look at some of these numbers:

Yelich- 9.7 BB% 16.8 K% 33.9 Hard% 24.1 O-Swing% 81.6 Contact% 7.8 SwStr%
Kepler- 10.0 BB% 19.0 K% 37.4 Hard% 24.9 O-Swing% 77.9 Contact% 9.1 SwStr%

When looking at their spray charts, things continue to remain in line. Sure, Kepler pulls the ball to right field a bit more, but he is also a bit more uneven in his splits against opposite handed pitchers. While facing righties, Kepler owns a .901 OPS compared to a .463 OPS against lefties. Yelich remains more balanced with a .768 OPS against righties and a .665 OPS against lefties. For the most part however, they continue to work the same.

Defensively, things remain comparable as well. In 2017, Yelich has operated solely as the Marlins centerfielder, moving over from left. Kepler has played mainly right field for the Twins, but has sprinkled in some time in center. To date, Yelich has been worth 4 DRS with a UZR of 3.0 and RngR factor of 4.7. Kepler has compiled 7 DRS for Minnesota while totaling a 4.0 UZR and a 2.3 RngR factor. A season ago, both players checked in with UZR totals right around 0.0, while being worth 6 DRS apiece.

So, what do we make of it all, other than the Twins might have their own version of Christian Yelich? Well, at this point, that doesn't mean all that much. Yelich is a really nice player, and he's got a Gold Glove to his credit, but the accolades pretty much end there. In 2016, he did win a Silver Slugger and came in 19th among the NL MVP voting. He's never been an All Star, and while being a household name, he's not necessarily regarded as among the best in the game.

While no doubt overshadowed by his teammate Byron Buxton, Max Kepler is in the conversation with Aaron Judge defensively among right fielders. Unfortunately Mookie Betts exists and is running away with Gold Glove consideration for AL right fielders, but Kepler should be a finalist at the end. He's always going to have stiff competition for Silver Slugger awards, but he very realistically could be a 20/10 or even 20/20 guy (with work on the basepaths).

Given what was expected of Yelich coming up as a prospect, and the arc of his career thus far (he just started for Team USA in the WBC), allowing Minnesota to have their own version is far from something the Twins would scoff at. Kepler is not all that far removed from a .734 OPS in 113 games during his first big league season, but as he's settled in, the height of his play has risen as well.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had to be salivating at the opportunity to build a core around Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, but Max Kepler is far more than a throw in. We're seeing him turn into a legitimate name in this league, and it may just be the beginning.

So You Wanna Make A Bet: 2017 Minnesota Twins

With Opening Day of the 2017 Major League Baseball season upon us, it's time to take a look at what could be ahead for the home nine. There's plenty of projection systems out there giving us indications of what may happen, but only through a sports book can you make concrete guesses that equal out to dollars and cents. It's time to take a look at the over/unders for all things Twins related.

Pulled from Bovada, there's both individual as well as team specific over/unders for the 2017 season. Although the Twins don't have anywhere close to a national following, there's still a good number of big name players with specific achievements tabulated for them. Whether $5 or $500, here's your guide as to where you confidence should lie while putting up some cash on the Twinkies.

Brian Dozier HRs 29.5

Coming off a campaign in which he launched 42 longballs, Brian Dozier is in for some regression. The question that needs to be answered, is how far backwards does the Twins second basemen go? In 2016, he became the only player not named Harmon Killebrew to hit 40 HRs in a season for Minnesota. Prior to that effort, he launched 23 and 28 respectively. In 2016, Dozier's HR/FB% was a career best 18.4% and well off his 12.7% career mark. If there's a Twins player I'm betting on hitting 30 homers in 2017, it's a husky 3B, not Dozier.

Bet: Under 4* (Based on a 1* to 5* confidence rating)

Ervin Santana Wins 10.5

A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting staff in the big leagues. Not one pitcher picked up more than nine wins, and that was from Tyler Duffey, who was sent to Triple-A at one point. In two seasons with Minnesota, Santana has yet to record double-digit wins (albeit his 2015 was shortened). This season, he should have a solid offense behind him, but the question has to be in regards to how many leads the early season bullpen gives up. Pitcher wins are a fickle stat, and on a bad staff, I want no part of them.

Bet: Under 2*

Joe Mauer AVG .270

It's been three years since Joe Mauer has finished a season with an average north of .270. In 2014, the former MVP batted .277 with a .732 OPS across 120 G for the Twins. This season, Paul Molitor has talked plenty about how he'll need to give his first basemen regular rest, and target a lesser load to get the best out of him. If that is followed through upon, Mauer has a chance to put up his best season since being an All Star in 2013. Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber first basemen that just can't play every day anymore, Should Minnesota use Mauer correctly, and more against RHPs (.793 OPS vs RHP .610 OPS vs LHP in 2016), then he has a very realistic shot to impress.

Bet: Over 3*

Max Kepler HR 17.5

This is one of the most interesting numbers in the set. Kepler is not a traditional power hitter in that his swing is more reflective of a smooth stroke that simply runs into the ball. I like Kepler a lot, and think he'll make a nice career of doing damage in the gaps. He blasted 17 homers in just 113 games a year ago, and should have more opportunities this season. Kepler's lobgalls came in bunches though, and bolstered by a three-HR game, he hit 12 in a 26 game span. I'll go out on a limb here and say Byron Buxton hits more longballs than the German in 2017.

Bet: Under 2*

Miguel Sano HR 29.5

Do you know what the Twins third basemen is going to do a lot of in 2017? He's going to strike out. Miguel Sano is also going to send a lot of baseballs into the stratosphere. Last season, in 116 games, Sano hit 25 homers. Over that time, he was told to learn a new (and odd) position, and he wasn't healthy for a good portion of the season. Regardless of the setbacks, Sano came up just five dingers shy of the 30 mark. In 2017, I'd expect Sano to strike out no less than 200 times, but when he hits 35 homers, it's not going to matter much.

Bet: Over 4*

Minnesota Twins Wins 74.5

Wrapping up the list is the team number. Coming off of a 103 loss season, winning 75 games seems like a massive jump. The reality though, is that the 2016 outfit wasn't anything significantly different than the 2015 team that won 83 games. If there's something of a wildcard here, I think it's Paul Molitor. He's mismanaged his lineup and bullpen for some time, and that's going to cost a team needing to steal wins. At the end of the day though, I think the Twins have a better chance at winning 80 games, than I see them losing 90.

Bet: Over 3*

Twins Offense May Be Defense

There's no skirting around just how bad the Minnesota Twins were on the mound last season. Their starting pitching was the worst in the big leagues, and their relief options broke down far too often as well. Although and overhaul hasn't taken place, the more important understanding is that a heightened focus on defense may be all that was ever needed.

Target Field has been pegged all over the place as to which side of the game it favors. Although at times it plays big, I think the understood reality is that it leans more between hitter friendly and neutral. With the Twins running out fly ball pitchers such as Phil Hughes and Hector Santiago, having capable outfielders ready to track balls down is a must. For the first time in 2017, they should have a group worthy of league wide notoriety.

Plenty has been made about the boost Jason Castro should provide the pitching staff behind the plate. His pitch framing and game calling approach is a significant upgrade over what Kurt Suzuki brought to the fold. What's overlooked however, is just how important a 162 game sample of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler can be.

Defensive metrics remain a mystery, and certainly in a small sample size. Numbers derived from DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) still fail to completely tell us what they're trying to indicate. While the picture of an outcome as it relates to a positive result is painted, the context surrounding each play is often left up for interpretation. Be that as it may, Buxton (3), Kepler (5), and Rosario (2) combined to be worth 10 DRS in 2016. That's hardly a number to be proud of, but again, it's a sign of things to come.

In 2016, Buxton and Rosario sporadically played in just 92 games for Minnesota, while Kepler gave the club 113. Without the ability to get in rhythm, contribute continuously, or really cement their place in the outfield, it's far from surprising that the best output wasn't achieved.

Given a full year, Buxton is expected to be in the conversation with the likes of the Rays Kevin Kiermaier as the best defensive center fielder in the game. His combination of instincts and elite speed should rarely see balls land around him. Max Kepler will be entering his first full major league season, and comes from a background that has seen him capable of playing all three outfield spots. Having settled into Target Field's dimensions a bit further, a heightened level of comfortability should follow suit. Arguably the biggest question mark of the group is Rosario, and it's in regards to what kind of player he shows up as.

Back in 2015, Rosario put up 10 DRS for the Twins in just under 750 innings in left field. He was an assist machine, and rarely had a play go unmade. A season ago, he regressed significantly and was no better than replacement level. The step backwards could be explained by both runners taking less chances on him, as well as a more casual approach to the defensive side of his game. Should he return to form, the trio will have plenty going for it.

While on paper the numbers trend towards the Twins having a strong outfield group, there's also a couple of in game factors that show promise. Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler have some of the strongest arms from the grass in the big leagues, and that should help to limit opposing baserunners stretching base hits. On top of their cannons, both Buxton and Kepler have proven their ability to make the difficult play.

Over at Baseball Savant, Statcast recently rolled out a new Catch Probability metric. Unlike UZR and DRS, this metric takes into consideration the amount of time a player has to make the play correlates it with the distance needing to be covered. The formula calculates measurable factors to produce and outcome that can be compared across several instances. The results are broken down into plays designated with "Star Rankings," 1 being the easiest opportunities (91-95% probability) and 5 being the most difficult (25% or less probability).

Among players with at least 50 opportunities, only seven players had more 5 star outs than Buxton (6) and Kepler (6) recorded. Of those with at least 25 opportunities for a 5 star out, only Adam Eaton's 27% success rate (10-37) was higher than Buxton's 24% (6-24). When looking for Max Kepler on the list, you don't have to go far to see his 18.8% (6-32) comes in 8th among those same stipulations.

Being that this is such a new metric, and we only have two years of data, it's hard to glean much from it at this point. Looking at it from its core though, suggesting that both Buxton and Kepler have strong instincts and ball tracking abilities, with solid play making athleticism is a more than fair statement.

At the end of the day, Paul Molitor's club is absolutely going to have to pitch. They're integrating Miguel Sano back into third, and have questions about Jorge Polanco at shortstop. When the ball is put in the air to the outfield however, the group that should patrol the grass more often than not, is going to have a very high probability to get the job done for the guy on the bump. The more pieces of the puzzle Minnesota can shore up, the closer they get to becoming a complete team, and this outfield group looks as sure of a bet as any

It's Time To Catch Up, The Twins Rebuild Is Over

This offseason, and many of recent memory for that matter, Twins fans have talked of the word rebuild. In describing the organization, rebuilding was a way to define the idea that the Twins needed and influx of new talent that would get them back into relevancy. While that has been a fair assessment of where the club has found itself, a new reality has set in. That time period is over, the rebuilding is done.

On Twitter recently, I stumbled across a conversation Twins beat writer Brandon Warne was having. He summarized the Twins current situation by saying, "The Twins rebuild is in a lot of ways over. There isn't much else to strip down. It's time to build." I'm not sure there's a more eloquent way to put it.

When it comes to big league baseball, there's only a few realities that face a team. Either your a serious World Series contender, you're treading water somewhere in the middle with a vertical trajectory of one direction, or you've committed to an influx of minor league talent with the idea that it pans out at the highest level.

To be completely fair, suggesting a team is a World Series contender is somewhat of a fickle practice. Sure, the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers are juggernauts, but making it into the playoffs makes you a contender of sorts. Although the exits were always quick, that's a stage that the Twins found themselves in during the run of AL Central titles under Ron Gardenhire. They quickly moved through the water treading phase (on a downward trajectory), and went into the doldrums of needing to stockpile talent. At this point though, the cycle has already begun to rotate.

While Paul Molitor's club isn't going to be kicking in the Postseason door when the 2017 season draws to a close, they've absolutely entered back into the pool of mediocrity, but with an upward trajectory this time. By suffering through the poor stretch, they've stockpiled talent, and at one point had one of the best farm systems in baseball.

The rebuild in which the Twins needed to undertake was highlighted by prospects such as Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Max Kepler. Those names are no longer found on prospect lists, they aren't rookie eligible, and they are all basically entrenched at the big league level. At this point, it's on the Twins to support them developmentally as best they can, and get them to contribute over the course of a 162 game season.

Although the Twins failed to generate much of anything in the pitching category, the rebuild portion of the big league turnaround is complete. You could say that names like Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero equate to some sort of replenishment when they arrive, and the hope would be that Minnesota would turn out a few more hidden gems. Right now though, the focus needs to be on sustenance.

Given what is left on the free agent market, I don't believe that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are best positioned to spend. They'd likely be giving too much money to players not necessarily deserving of it. Save for Mike Napoli as a rotational partner with Joe Mauer and Byungho Park, I'm good with the Twins standing pat. Entering 2018 is another story however.

A year from now, Minnesota will be more able to accurately gauge where there young stars are, what the roster deficiencies seem to be, and how to attack them. A frontline starter should be on the shopping list, and pulling out some significant stops to enter back into contender mode for a stretch makes a lot of sense.

When a big league team is losing, it's fair to consider what their plan truly is. However, calling a struggling team rebuilding is a lazy excuse to categorize something that may very well not be the case. Minnesota has moved out of that phase and onto the next one, this team is rebuilding no more.

Setting The 2017 Twins Lineup

Last winter, I tried my hand at projecting the upcoming lineup right around this same timeframe. With Paul Molitor back as manager of the Minnesota Twins for 2017, much of the same can be expected lineup wise, but he'll need to make some adjustments if he's going to overcome his own deficiencies from a season ago. There's no doubt that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine want to turn this thing around, but it'll be a process.

Right now, we know that the Twins have lost a couple of pieces from 2016, and there could be a few more changes along the way. I wouldn't expect them to make many waves in terms of offensive additions, so now seems as good of a time as any to set the lineup. With that out of the way, let's get into it.

1. Joe Mauer 1B

The unfortunate reality with Mauer is that his defense is Gold Glove caliber but the bat and offensive production is just a shell of what it once was. Recently I touched on the blueprint to get the best out of Mauer. Play him sparingly, split time with Park and Kennys Vargas, and even look at platooning him to remove some at bats against lefties. If Molitor can wrap his head around Mauer being what he is, rather than what he wants him to be, the Twins will be better for it. He's not going to bat .300, but hitting .280 using a similarly structured plan seems like a good bet. If you're not going to bat him leadoff, hitting him sixth or seventh makes a lot of sense.

2. Brian Dozier 2B

There's really no reason to be disappointed about being able to keep your best player. In not dealing Dozier, the Twins did just that this offseason. He's not going to hit 40 homers again in 2017, but settling in somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 season is a realistic ask. He should be a 3.0+ fWAR player, and will once again drive the Twins. He can allow Mauer's on base skills to add to his RBI total as well.

3. Max Kepler RF

At points during the 2016 campaign, it appeared that Max Kepler might run away with the Rookie of the Year award. In 31 games from the middle of July through the middle of August, Kepler posted a .912 OPS and cracked seven homers. His smooth swing and quick trigger through the zone should continue to allow him the ability to succeed at the plate. There may be less highs and lows for Kepler in 2017, but a year of consistency would be more than welcomed. He's got a realistic shot at 20 longballs this year and can be among the Twins best hitters.

4. Miguel Sano 3B

With the Twins non-tendering Trevor Plouffe, it's become time that Sano slots in as the full time third basemen. Realistically, he isn't a great fit there as the accuracy issues with his arm remain a real concern. Until things sort themselves out though, a move to full time DH or first base just doesn't appear in the cards. After a strong rookie year, Sano took steps backwards in 2016. The hope should be that his OPS rests somewhere in the mid .800 range and he can push towards 30 homers. Having played just 116 games a season ago, remaining in shape and healthy will be contributing factors towards Minnesota getting the most out of their young slugger.

5. Byungho Park DH

Brought over from the KBO as one of the best players that league has ever seen, Park's rookie year in the big leagues didn't go well. The Twins got just 62 games from Park and he was sent to Triple-A for the remainder of the year. Posting just 21 walks with 80 strikeouts, the swing and miss issues were definitely there for the Korean slugger. I believe that the wrist injury that eventually required surgery was a bigger deal than he let on, and if healthy, a big bounce back in 2017 is very plausible. Wipe the slate clean and give me at least 20 bombs in 130 games for the Twins from Park in the year ahead.

6. Byron Buxton CF

A year ago I found myself making excuses to try and get by Buxton's disappointing debut season. While he's still young, his 92 games in 2016 weren't great either. What Buxton did do though was bolster expectations for 2017 with a strong finish to the season. From August 5 through the end of the year, Buxton had a 30 game sample size in which he posted a .992 OPS while slugging an incredible .641. He's not going to hit nine home runs in a month all too often, but betting against baseball's former top prospect isn't something I want to do. Let him start in the middle, with a move to the top of the lineup being a quick possibility.

7. Jason Castro C

Signed to a three year deal this offseason by the Twins, Castro is being brought in first and foremost for his defensive acumen. Despite posting just a .684 OPS with the Astros last season, it was his best mark since his .835 OPS All Star season in 2013. If he can trend towards a .700 OPS for Minnesota as a defense first backstop, Molitor will have to be happy. Castro has totaled double-digit homers each year since 2012, and getting some pop from the catching position is something the Twins will welcome. His floor shouldn't be too low, and Castro's ceiling is probably the best the Twins have seen at catcher since Joe Mauer.

8. Eddie Rosario LF

If there was someone that did themselves no favors in 2016 it was Rosario. Not only did he take steps backwards defensively, but his approach at the plate looked awful far too often. A free swinger that chases out of the zone, Rosario shaved nearly 30 points off of his OPS and again posted an ugly K/BB (91/12) ratio. He needs to be more patient at the dish and come up with a better plan. In the field, Minnesota needs the guy that was worth 10 DRS in 2015, not the one that was worth zero last season. This spot also gets interesting if the Twins do in fact pull off a Brian Dozier trade. If Yasiel Puig is a part of the return, Rosario could find himself as the odd man out.

9. Jorge Polanco SS

With Brian Dozier remaining a member of the Twins for the 2017 big league season, Polanco is destined to stay at shortstop. It's not an ideal spot for him defensively, but the Twins frankly don't have another option. His bat should help to alleviate some of the defensive gaffes, and expecting him to tote the lumber is a good bet.

Last year, the Twins terrible season was a by-product of a team that couldn't pitch at all. The offense took far too long to get going out of the gates, but showed in multiple stretches that it's capable of competing. In 2017, the pitching probably isn't going to be significantly better, but the offense normalizing will likely spell the difference. Not a .500 team still, an offensive uptick should have the Twins winning somewhere north of 75 games.

Is Grossman A Twin For The Future?

On May 20th, Robbie Grossman made his debut with the Minnesota Twins. After starting the year in the Cleveland Indians organization, Grossman saw opportunity through the Twins farm system and jumped ship. Playing just one game with the Rochester Red Wings, Grossman was headed to the big leagues. The question now is should he stay there, at least for the Twins.

In the 2008 Major League Baseball draft, Robbie Grossman was a 6th round pick out of high school by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was rated the 76th best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2012 season, and he made his big league debut in 2013 with the Houston Astros. Through his first three big league seasons Grossman owned a .240/.327/.341 slash line. He never flashed any real power, but was a solid on base contributor.

For the Twins, Grossman has experienced nothing short of a revolution. In 64 games with Minnesota, Grossman owns a .266/.392/.436 slash line. He's hit a career best seven home runs, and his 14 doubles tie him for a career mark with 49 games left to go. His defense has been anything but average. With a -12 DRS number and a -7.2 UZR, Fangraphs sees him as essentially Josh Willingham out in left field for Minnesota.

Right now, Grossman's contribution to the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins is largely irrelevant. Really though, that's only because it's a microcosm of what the 2016 Twins have become. This is a lost season for Paul Molitor's squad, and no results are going to matter much in the grand scheme of things. What Grossman is doing, and is fighting for, is a place on this team and in the organization going forward.

So, what exactly does that look like? Well, Grossman's bat has played to a capable, if not above average level. His power is not along the lines of a corner outfielder, but his advanced on base rate is something any time would enjoy putting ahead of power hitters in their lineup. In the outfield though, he's essentially been the 2012 version of Josh Willingham, and could finish the year with worse numbers than the 2008 version of Delmon Young. Weighing out both the detractors as well as contributions, the next place to look is at the competition.

At Triple-A, there's only two realistic big league prospects; Adam Brett Walker and Daniel Palka. A level further down, Zach Granite and Travis Harrison could be in play, but won't be ready come Opening Day 2017. So, let's take a look at the two current Triple-A options.

Both Palka and Walker present similar skillsets. They are hitters first, with a ton of power, and a relatively high strikeout rate. Walker has the weaker arm of the two, but is also the one on the 40 man roster. Palka was acquired prior to 2016 in exchange for former Twins backstop Chris Herrmann. Between Double and Triple-A in 2016, Palka is slashing .264/.343/.533 with 27 homers, 141 strikeouts, and 51 walks. Adam Brett Walker has played the entire season at Triple-A and owns a .243/.310/.481 line with 22 homers, 164 strikeouts, and 37 walks. Being on the 40 man, it's a pretty good bet he may see time with the Twins in September.

So, where does that leave us to open the 2017 season, and what is Robbie Grossman up against? Let's assume that the starting outfield includes Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario from right to left. Buxton is probably the biggest question mark of the group, but you can bet a new GM will be wanting to make sure he rights the former consensus top overall prospect's ship. With Danny Santana continuing to be loved by the organization, and out of options, he seems a good bet to return as a utility player that draws a good deal of time as a rotating outfielder. In this scenario, you've probably got room for one more true outfielder on the 25 man roster.

If it comes down to whether or not the Twins keep Robbie Grossman, or roll with one of either Daniel Palka or Adam Brett Walker, a smart choice could be in choosing one of the latter two. Walker doesn't have nearly the on base prowess, and while Palka doesn't either, he's not as far removed. Both of the Twins home grown options have a significantly more realistic power component to their game though, and should play defense at least at a comparable level.

My opinion relies largely upon two factors: What happens to Byron Buxton, and what can you get for Robbie Grossman? If Buxton isn't on the 2017 Twins Opening Day roster (things are bad already), that means Eddie Rosario is your starting centerfielder, leaving left field up for grabs. In that scenario, carrying both Robbie Grossman and one of the two Triple-A guys could make a lot of sense.

To answer the second question, the Twins will have to do their homework. Experiencing a solid season at the age of 26, and turning 27 prior to the 2017 season, Grossman still arguably has his prime ahead of him. Not arbitration eligible until 2018, and not a free agent until 2021, he could be a nice piece for a club closer to contending. If the return is worthy of flipping him and going with the other internal options, I'd put some serious thought into it.

For now, Robbie Grossman has played himself into a realistic big league roster spot for the forseeable future. Whether or not that continues to be with the Twins or not is the only thing yet to be determined. The pieces are still moving, but they should work themselves out.