A Little Island With Lots Of WBC Intrigue

The World Baseball Classic rosters have been officially unveiled now (check them out here), and as expected, the United States as well as the Dominican Republic teams are loaded. Vegas gives a slight edge to the American (2/1), but the reigning champion Dominican team is not far behind (2.5/1). That said, the most intriguing team for Twins fans may be the Puerto Ricans.

Coming off winning the Carribean Series, the Puerto Rican team is stocked with young talent flooding big league rosters. While it's traditionally been Cuba and the Dominican Republic seen as breeding grounds for exciting big league talent, Puerto Rico has really bolstered its presence in recent years. The Twins have a handful of talented Puerto Rican players both at the big league level, as well as throughout their farm system.

On the World Baseball Classic roster, Minnesota lends the likes of Jose Berrios, Dereck Rodriguez, Eddie Rosario, Hector Santiago, and Kennys Vargas. Joining them is former Twins Rene Rivera and J.C. Romero. The collection also includes studs such as Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Yadier Molina.

Forget the fact that a potential infield including Correa at third, Lindor at short, and Baez at second is must see, the Twins contingent is worth monitoring on its own. Berrios remains a high ceiling player for Minnesota and needs to settle into the top of the rotation starter he has always appeared to be. Rodriguez is coming off a strong 2016, and an offseason in which his dad was named a Hall of Famer. Rosario could be fighting for a roster spot after a poor campaign last year, and Santiago needs to put a better foot forward than how he started with Minnesota. Rounding out the group, Vargas has been given the reigns to the DH role, but needs to take it and run with it.

With the schedule for the World Baseball Classic, and the perceived reality that Puerto Rico makes a decent run in the tournament, the five competing Twins likely will miss a bulk of Spring Training. Not incredibly detrimental given that a higher level of baseball competition is being played, the group needs to get off to a good start, and stay healthy throughout the tourney as well.

It stands to reason that a strong showing in the Classic could help to springboard any one of the Twins participants into a quick start for 2017. Conversely, the hope would be that an ugly performance would simply be rust being knocked off as opposed to a sign of things to come in the early schedule. No matter which way the pendulum swings, Twins fans will want to be equally clued into the spring slate as well as the tourney happenings.

There's not much to gain casting your lots with the favorites like Team USA or the Dominicans. At the end of the 2017 World Baseball Classic though, I'd be far from shocked if the Puerto Ricans didn't find themselves as the last ones standing.

Other WBC notes:

• Team Australia has 14 players with Twins connections, making the bulk of the roster significantly tied into the organization.
• Team Canada has intrigue with Justin Morneau participating, but maybe the most eyebrow raising participant is 41 year old Eric Gagne. It's been 14 years since his 55 save season, and he hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2008 (Gagne did throw 9.1 innings the past two years in the Can-Am League).
• Here's who I have for each of the Pool winners: Korea (A), Cuba (B), USA (C), Puerto Rico (D).

Twins In The Business Of Sending Messages

Coming into this offseason, I made the contention that the Minnesota Twins didn't need to make a ton of moves. Despite losing 103 games a year ago, you'd be blind to look at the roster and see a makeup worthy of that result. In reality, the club fell flat, but has the pieces in place to begin to supplement for the future. This offseason, the new regime has made the narrative one of putting players on notice.

As I alluded to not too long ago, this Twins club is no longer in rebuilding mode. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios need to be the workhorses they have been touted as for the club to take the next step. Instead, the organization finds itself in a place of supplementation. That is, to push the envelope by adding from outside of the organization. In a piece over at Twins Daily, Nick Nelson did a great job highlighting the focus on defense, and the effect that should have in the wins column for Paul Molitor's club.

In bringing on defensive talent, and really other veteran options as a whole, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have signified they are done playing the waiting game. No longer is standing idly by and hoping that up and coming youth plays out looking like it's going to fly with this front office.

With some real question marks to round out the 25 man roster, veteran options such as J.B. Shuck, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, and Chris Gimenez find themselves in big league camp pushing for a job. For those holdovers in the Twins organization, they can bet each of those guys is coming to Fort Myers with the intention of taking their job.

Most notably however, it appears that the Twins are sending pointed messages to players such as Danny Santana and Eddie Rosario. Santana is a guy that really has no position, and doesn't do much of anything with the bat. His lone perceived value is that he can occupy space all over the field, but that comes with the caveat that it's below average no matter where he stands. With the acquisition of Adrianza, it would certainly appear that Minnesota is willing to move on from that perception for the added value of a defensive wizard.

A guy like Adrianza isn't going to be pushing for MVP votes any time soon, but bringing in a glove first bench player suggests that Minnesota may be done allowing Santana to skate by. Having not made adjustments since an inflated rookie campaign, the former shortstop prospect has continued to stumble down the reliability meter. Although Santana would need to be DFA'd and clear waivers, I'm not certain the Twins care too much at this point.

Too a lesser extent, Rosario appears to be in the crosshairs as well. He too had a very strong rookie season and has taken significant steps backwards since. Bolstered by 15 triples, and held up by outfield assists, both offensively and defensively Rosario left plenty to be desired in his second season. He continues to have a lopsided strikeout to walk ratio, and effort concerns have always loomed close to the young Puerto Rican.

At this point, I'd guess Rosario remains safe with Robbie Grossman and a host of other vets vying for that filler outfield spot. That being said, a poor performance process wise, as well as on the field, this spring could spell his demise. Along the same vein as Santana, Minnesota appears to want to see each of their roster spots earned, and the competition isn't simply has-been reunion stories.

Minor league deals have virtually no downside given the lack of promise they uphold. For a team like the Twins trying to stretch extra wins out of anywhere possible, bringing win competition to either take over or motivate those that end up on their Opening Day roster is far from a bad move. If I were Danny Santana or Eddie Rosario, I'd be treating Fort Myers like it's October baseball from the get go.

Twins Projections Bring Interesting Expectations

As the winter draws to a close, storylines for the upcoming season don't quite write themselves yet. Sure, teams are solidifying their Spring Training invitee list, but the bulk of what is to come, has yet to get here. That puts us in the midst of Prospect List and Projection season. There's no shortage of pieces out there on either, but it's the projections that bring the most intrigue for the 2017 Minnesota Twins.

Coming off a season in which the club lost 103 games, a franchise worst, there's no team that needs to get back on the horse sooner than Paul Molitor's club. After an exciting first year at the helm, Molitor often looked lost and overmatched while his club's performance only sank him them further into the doldrums. The resounding sentiment around Twins Territory however, is that the club is nowhere near as bad as the results indicated a season ago.

What's interesting is that most projections would agree with that line of thinking. Fangraphs has Minnesota tabbed for 74 wins, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA numbers suggest the Twins win 79. I offered up a belief here at Off The Baggy that they'll win 80, and beat writer Brandon Warne suggested as much as well. Looking at all avenues, the belief appears to be that this club can win something in the range of 70-80 games in 2017.

Although a losing season would still take place if projections are accurate, the Twins would be looking at something like a 15 to 20 game win differential from the 2016 season. A significant boost to be sure, it's more reflective of a roster that severely underperformed a year ago. With the maturation of young bats like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, combined with even mediocre elevation in pitching performance, this club should see a significant turnaround.

Then there's the reality that opportunity exists among the competition. Most projections see the AL Central as a desolate wasteland outside of the World Series runner-up Cleveland Indians. It's really hard to contend that point. The Twins are a team that realistically seem like the largest wild card of the bunch. Detroit is aging but still has talent. The White Sox have committed to a full on rebuild, and the Royals are seemingly treading water but still staying afloat.

At the current juncture, and really at any given point, projection systems are far too often seen as a gold standard. Rather than simply operating with the understanding that the numbers are trying to tell a story, we look at the outcomes as a definition of what is to come. I think most importantly, and especially this season, the numbers are telling us the only thing we really know is that Cleveland once again will contend.

It's probably a fool's errand to look at the Minnesota Twins as they'll travel north from Fort Myers and hope for a Wild Card berth. If that were to happen however, the spectrum between 70 and 90 wins would be one that Paul Molitor's club absolutely capitalized on in the highest form. All indications are that the dumpster fire that presented itself a season ago has cooled, and interesting baseball should take place far more often than it shouldn't.

Given the unpredictability of the AL Central as a whole, and how the Twins fit into that picture, a sense of enjoyment should follow as we approach the upcoming year. If excitement and optimism reign as signs of Postseason fun, enjoyment should define a year that includes growth and once again sees the needle point upward for the home nine.

As I stated a while back, this organization is past the point of a rebuild. Top prospects have graduated from the farm and now must develop into difference makers and contributors. As that transition takes place, supplementing with outside talent is a way in which the organization can continue to build and contend. Although we likely won't see that in this calendar year, the projections tell us it's not as far off as previous results would make it seem.

So, while you're enjoying the smorgasbord of numerical offerings that this point of the offseason provides, remember not to get hung up on the numbers themselves, but try to understand the story they are telling you. We know little about how the AL Central is going to play out, the Minnesota Twins should be in the thick of it, and that may still end up not being ideal. What it is very likely to resemble however is progress, and that's something we should find enjoyment in all the way up until September.

Improving The Twins 25th Man

It's often said that you're only as good as your weakest link. In sports, this proves vital when a team makes a playoff run, and every outcome matters. For the 2017 Minnesota Twins, a playoff run seems a bit lofty, but the club could look to vault themselves forward by upping the production from the bottom of their roster.

Given that a big league baseball team is able to deploy 25 players at any given time, the roster remains in flux throughout the majority of the season. For the Minnesota Twins though, one player that could be improved upon prior to leaving Spring Training in Fort Myers is super utility man Danny Santana.

Describing Santana as a super utility player may be also highlighting his greatest asset to the club. The idea that he can play all over is really where the benefits stop, because in reality, his roster spot causes extreme pause. Since his inflated .405 BABIP rookie season, Santana has slashed .227/.259/.308 in 166 major league games the past two years. He's contributed just 29 extra base hits, and his 123/18 K/BB ratio is anything but ideal.

Then there's that idea that Santana is some sort of a utility player capable of playing all over the diamond. Defensive metrics are a fickle beast, but across the board, none of them are kind to Santana. In 2016 alone, Santana was worth -8 DRS combining six different positions. In 2015, the former shortstop was worth -15 DRS proving to be an extreme liability in the infield. Thus far defensively, Santana has shown he doesn't have the chops to play center or short, and he's miscast as a body virtually everywhere else.

Looking at what Santana provides at the plate, the Twins should see a lot to be desired as well. He owns nearly a 12% career swinging strike rate that has elevated the past two seasons. He chases pitches out of the zone 40% of the time, and he makes hard contact just over a quarter of the time. To summarize, Santana isn't a fit in the field, doesn't carry a big bat, and is really a theoretical asset.

So, what do the Twins do to address the issue?

What it comes down to for Minnesota and Paul Molitor, is whether or not they can get over the idea that Santana provides value where he doesn't. Is it beneficial to have a player on the bench that can simply step up to the plate and occupy a fielding position, or is there someone who can push the envelop a bit further? Minnesota may not have an immediate utility bench type outside of Eduardo Escobar, but they could push the overall roster talent upwards by having more of a sure thing.

It's interesting that the organization decided to DFA Byungho Park prior to considering Danny Santana. While it may have been a lot to ask for the Twins to carry Park, Kennys Vargas, and Joe Mauer all on the big league roster, exposing Byungho to waivers first doesn't seem like the best bet. There's not a ton of veteran options in Minnesota's camp, but using Fort Myers as a proving ground to find a Santana replacement really should be a must.

Zach Granite may only be able to play the outfield, and Engelb Vielma may not hit at all, but players like those have true assets in one category or another. If the Twins can find someone to bring any real value on either side of the ball, moving on from Danny Santana (out of options and all) may not be a bad thing.

Twins Must Fix Injury Issues In 2017

Over the course of a 162 game season, it's incredibly inevitable that injuries are going to take place. The depth of even the strongest 40 man rosters are often tested in the game of baseball. While the Minnesota Twins have experienced their fair share, they've also been behind the eight ball far too often.

Just this last season three key examples of reactivity as a detriment come to mind for Minnesota, and one came to a head as Byungho Park was DFA'd by the new front office. Each of Trevor Plouffe, Alex Meyer, and Park were grossly mishandled (or so it would seem) by the Twins training staff a season ago.

Park, who was recently jettisoned off the 40 man roster to make room for recently acquired Matt Belisle, ended his rookie season with season ending wrist surgery. That surgery didn't take place until September, after he had been optioned to Triple-A. Back in July, Park missed time due to the injury, he wasn't DL'd until landing on the shelf with Rochester in August, and there weren't corrective measures taken until the surgery in September.

In Park's last 30 games at the big league level for the Twins (May 17-June 28), he slashed just .123/.208/.236.  After starting .257/.339/.578 through his first 32 games, it was pretty clear regression had move in for some reason or another. Given that he was a prolific slugger coming over to a new test for the first time, it would stand to reason that Park was doing what he could to give his new club more than he currently had.

Then, other the opposite end of the spectrum is a veteran that may have been in the same boat. Last season, Trevor Plouffe dealt with plenty of side injuries that no doubt played into what was somewhat of a disappointing year. He suffered a groin injury early in the summer, then cracked a rib in July. The cracked rib was initially diagnosed as "sore ribs" by the Twins, and the third basemen attempted to play through it. As the season drew to a close, another DL stint was pushed off as a strained oblique became the latest thing to sap Plouffe's production.

In 2016, Plouffe's .723 OPS was his lowest since the 2013 season, and in part, indicative of a player that never was able to take the field with a clean bill of health. It's admirable when a vet wants to go out and battle, especially an arbitration case like Plouffe, but again the Twins training staff did him no favors. He was allowed to participate to his detriment on multiple occasions, and injuries went wrongly diagnosed for a period as well.

Rounding out the most noticeable trio from 2016, and arguably the most egregious, is former prospect Alex Meyer. To be fair, the Twins did a less than ideal job of developing Meyer into the frontline starter he was dubbed as, but their handling of his body may have been even worse.

On May 3, 2016 Alex Meyer pitched for the Twins and lasted just 2.2 IP. He was then optioned to Triple-A Rochester. Despite having shoulder issues, he was simply called day-to-day for 32 days. He wasn't DL'd until June 3rd. The Twins didn't have him throwing, they didn't have more information, the simply did nothing for what was once considered a top tier starting prospect.

When the Twins dealt Alex Meyer to the Los Angeles Angels on August 1st with Ricky Nolasco, he ended his time with Minnesota having not pitched since May 3. The Angels placed Meyer on the minor league 7 day DL immediately to work a roster spot, but had him back on the mound pitching on August 13. The organization invested time into getting him healthy, and had him contribute five starts in September for the big league club.

Ron Gardenhire was often chastised for how he handled roster movement with injured players. He'd carry a guy not available for too long, only to DL them and leave the club short for a longer period of time. In recent memory, the Twins process has been to slap a day-to-day designation on a player (Byron Buxton has also experienced this fate), despite seemingly having no real plan on how to get players healthy.

Given that I'm unfamiliar with the inner workings of the training department, and what Dave Pruemer and his staff have as goals, I can't point an exact finger. What is apparent though, is that the Minnesota Twins seem to be an incredibly reactive organization when it comes to injuries, and it often works to the detriment of their players. Guys like Park, Plouffe, and Meyer all were worse off for how the Twins handled their setbacks a season ago. For a team needing every advantage possible, poor injury management isn't something ideal to fall under.

2017 AL Central Division Preview

A season ago, I had the Kansas City Royals taking the AL Central division with 86 wins. I contended that not team would win 90 games, while no team would lose 90 either. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins blew by the 90 loss mark en route to a franchise worst 103 losses. After a World Series run for the Cleveland Indians, there should be little doubt they enter the 2017 as the league favorite.

When looking at the state of the Central, it's a division with a handful of teams in transition. While the Indians built this offseason, the Royals and Tigers mainly stood still. The Twins look to be relying mostly on their internal development and the Chicago White Sox have gone into an all out rebuild. The group should remain competitive this season, if for no other reason than the separation among organizations at the present time is relatively small.

With the groundwork laid, here's how I see the AL Central shaking out in 2017:

1. Cleveland Indians (91-71)

After going to the World Series a season ago, the Indians shouldn't be expected to fall off significantly. Sure, they lost Mike Napoli, but the addition of Edwin Encarnacion is a big one. If they can keep pitching healthy all year, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco are about as strong of a 1-2 punch as it gets. A full season from Andrew Miller will pay dividends, and Terry Francona's club should be a shoe-in to again take the Central division crown.

2. Detroit Tigers (82-80)

The Tigers present an interesting case for 2017. The roster is aging, but the talent that comes with those players is significant. Justin Verlander very well could have won a Cy Young a season ago, and Miguel Cabrera doesn't appear to be falling off any time soon. If the club slumps through the first half though, a selloff could ensue as the farm system isn't one chock full of talent. At the highest level, Detroit has talent. They need it to age appropriately though for another year, or disaster could force the organizations hand.

3. Minnesota Twins (80-82)

If there's two teams that I can't peg for mirroring reasons in the Central it's the Twins, and the 4th entrant in the division. For Minnesota, everything went wrong a season ago, and the club ended with 103 losses. The talent is much less indicative of that number, and the emergence of young stars such as Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and hopefully Jose Berrios, should make an impact. If Paul Molitor can get anything close to mediocrity from his pitchers, the offense is capable of carrying this club. I could see them winning something like 75 games, just as likely as winning 85.

4. Kansas City Royals (79-83)

Unlike the Twins, the Royals are going to be relying on a few key veterans to hold serve in the division. It appears that their upswing might have come to an end however, and the offseason didn't provide them with many answers. Despite the tough season a year ago, replacing Yordano Ventura in an already mediocre rotation won't be easy. Brandon Moss is a solid enough pickup, but the loss of Jarrod Dyson likely will be felt. This club could be sellers at the deadline, or they could be right in the thick of things if everything breaks right.

5. Chicago White Sox (71-91)

Once again, the bottom team in the division may give the Central a chance to have no one win or lose 90 games. The White Sox already shipped out Chris Sale, and it seems to be just a matter of time before Jose Quintana goes. Todd Frazier is a piece the club could move, and David Robertson also should have value. The reality is that Chicago has committed to a full on rebuild, and they've restocked the farm with some incredible talent. It's going to pay off long term, but they should hold up the tail end of the division.

Mauer Power Up Front For Twins

When I tried to set the Twins lineup for 2017 back in December, I made the contention that Joe Mauer belonged in the leadoff spot. If he wasn't going to hit first, he should bat somewhere around sixth, but I believe he should absolutely hit first. The question is whether or not Paul Molitor has come around far enough on the idea.

A season ago, Molitor used over 130 different lineup combinations. On a daily basis, he seemed confused as to why he was batting players where he was, and his reasoning rarely would stand up against statistical agreement. Over the course of the season, Mauer was campaigned for as a leadoff hitter by a select few. Unfortunately, Molitor gave him an opportunity in just eight games. Those games came after a stretch in which he had played 31 straight without a day off, and the experiment was abandoned after the May 18th tilt against the Detroit Tigers.

While it's an incredibly small sample size, in the eight instances in which Joe Mauer lead off a game, he owned a very solid .375 on base percentage. Always a high on base guy, Mauer threatened to walk more often (79) than he struck out (93) a year ago. It was his lowest strikeout total since 2013, and his plate approach looked extremely impressive.

Generating contact 86.2% of the time, Mauer saw his best contact percentage since his 2012 year, and his 4.9% swinging strike rate was also the best it's been since that season. He chased pitches out of the zone just 23.2% of the time (another best since 2012), and his plan at the dish looked to be something cut of the cloth from the player we once knew. Given his approach and eye, he turned in a .363 OBP on the year, and that number rose to .383 when looking at production solely off of right handed pitchers. Although not quite the .400+ OBP mark Mauer used to patent, his numbers last season when it came to getting on base were better than any year since his 2013 All Star campaign.

If there's an argument against making Joe Mauer the Minnesota Twins leadoff hitter, it's the dated thought that the top guy in the lineup has to be fast. While there's no denying that Mauer doesn't have earth shattering speed, there is plenty of room to question how much speed should factor in.

Looking at the entirety of Major League Baseball lineups on Opening Day in 2016, only seven players stole 20 bases (just 23% of all leadoff hitters). Of those seven players, only two stole 20 or more bases while also having a higher on base percentage than Mauer's .363. Their names were Jose Altuve and Jean Segura.

If somehow the Twins were able to turn Byron Buxton into a Jose Altuve clone, I think we'd have a pretty clear idea who would bat leadoff. Given that doesn't seem incredibly likely, the speed and on base combination doesn't appear to be in the organization at present. Jean Segura checked in ahead of Mauer as well, but his .368 OBP was easily a career best, and well over his .319 career average. So if speed isn't something that's a commodity available to everyone, we once again find ourselves looking for a guy who gets on base.

Speaking of trying to get on base with a leadoff hitter, the Twins also stand to significantly benefit when it comes to run production. In 2016, Brian Dozier batted leadoff in 73 games. He lead off the game with a homer six different times, and of his 42 longballs, 30 of them came with no runners on base. Generating 99 RBI on the season, if just half of the 30 solo shots included a base runner, Dozier would've plated 114 RBI in 2016. Over the course of the year, Minnesota scored 722 runs, three under league average. Adding 15 to their total would've taken them from 16th to 13th in big league run total.

Being able to quantify the ability Joe Mauer possesses when it comes to getting on base is something that has been at the Twins disposal for years. It's now down to whether or not Paul Molitor wants to utilize it. Interestingly enough, his new boss is not foreign to the idea that using a strong on base guy at the top of the lineup makes a lot of sense. While the Indians batted Rajai Davis leadoff to start the season, Carlos Santana took that baton for 85 G in 2016. His .366 OBP was nearly a mirror image of Mauer's .363.

At the end of the day, the reality of the situation is that the Twins don't have a world beating speedster that totes a strong bat along the lines of Altuve or Mookie Betts. What they do have is one of the best players on the planet when it comes to getting on base, and it's even better if he's given extra rest or platooned to see mostly righties. Although some in the local scene such as 1500 ESPN's Patrick Reusse wanted to scoff at and write off the idea after an eight game sample size, Minnesota remains best positioned with Joe kicking things off.

I'm not sure what pull the front office has when it comes to setting lineups, but Molitor proved he could use some guidance a season ago. If Derek Falvey is going to give it to him, the card should start with Mauer.