A First Basemen with Familiarity

On Monday morning the legendary career of Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer came to an end. While it's obvious that his exploits behind the dish were far superior to what he did at first base, the reality for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine is that they now have a hole in their infield. Heading into free agency the first base market is pretty ugly, but a familiar name could make a ton of sense.

Last winter Carlos Santana signed a three-year, $60 million pact with the Philadelphia Phillies. Now according to Ken Rosenthal, they are "shopping the hell" out of their newly acquired first basemen. Of course the optics of such a move don't look great for the Phillies, but there's much more to it than meets the eye. Everything boils down to the fact that Rhys Hoskins is a bonafide stud, but he cannot play in the outfield. Serving as the regular left fielder last season he was worth an abysmal -24 DRS. The best configuration for Gabe Kapler's squad has the young star back at first base.

For the Twins (and any other suitors) there's somewhat of a perfect storm brewing. Santana had a down year in 2018 (not terrible however), and his team is motivated to move him before the start of the 2019 season. With those two factors at play it'd be fair to assume that leverage may be on the side of the acquiring ballclub. At 33 next year, Santana is owed $20.3MM with a $20.8MM commitment in 2020. There's a $17.5MM team option for 2021 but the buyout is a measly $500k. For teams interested in corner infield help, Carlos Santana at two-years and $40 million doesn't sound like a bad ask. Trading prospects and taking on the deal though, you're probably looking at asking the Phillies to eat something in the range of $10 million.

Right now you'd like to believe that the Minnesota Twins have Miguel Sano inked at third base to open 2019. A position change across the diamond could be in the not-so-distant future, but keeping him in his current role as long as possible is the most optimal scenario. As he transitions across the diamond though, a sort of mentor could be a great addition to the process. Santana has dabbled at third base in both 2014 and last year. He knows the position well enough to understand Sano's process, and Carlos has been a league-average at worst first basemen since coming out from behind the plate.

Offensively there isn't a box that Santana doesn't check for the Twins. Sure he had a down 2018, but even that included a respectable .766 OPS. In his final two seasons with Cleveland (yes, not the Falvey connection) Santana owned an .842 OPS. He has a career .363 OBP and has routinely split walks and strikeouts at the dish. With three straight seasons of at least 23 homers the ability to lose the ball in the seats is also present. Of course the best ability is availability, and Santana has been incredibly reliable as a big leaguer. Dating back to 2011, he's played in no less than 143 games and has gotten in 152-plus in all but one of those seasons.

Despite playing Gold Glove caliber defense at first base dating back to his positional change, Mauer's greatest detraction on the right corner was the ability to hit for power. Santana brings that to the table, combining his efforts with Sano on the other side. Minnesota's lineup also needs an infusion of on-base ability as Joe (and likely Robbie Grossman) has been subtracted from the mix. On paper this is certainly a perfect fit.

According to 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson, Santana is "on their radar" and that's a great sign for Twins fans. While the Phillies are motivated to move him, this is a team considered front-runners for one (or both) of Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. They aren't going to take pennies on the dollar and Carlos' services will be coveted by more than a few clubs. If there's a deal to be made in Minnesota this offseason involving prospects however, this is the one I'd like to see get done.

The Case For Carlos

With Major League Baseball free agency ready to get underway, general managers and organizations will begin pitching to players why they should sign with their respective teams. For the Twins, pitching will once again remain a focus, but for a team looking to take the next step, a nice offensive additional may not be a bad play. There's multiple options out there, but a former divisional foe should be the place they turn first. That guy is Carlos Santana.

The former Cleveland Indians slugger is out on the open market, and while he'll almost certainly have a qualifying offer attached to him, it makes sense for a competitive organization to part with a draft pick for his services. The soon-to-be 32 year-old is coming off a season in which he posted an .818 OPS and launched 23 long balls for the Indians. Even if Derek Falvey didn't have previous Cleveland ties, a match here seems to make a lot of sense.

Judging the Twins needs on offense, the most glaring area last year was a right-handed power bat. If that player could offer something on defense, that would only further the notion of it being a well-found pairing. Santana is a switch hitter, and while he hit righties better in 2017, he's been a tick better (.815 OPS vs .809 OPS) from the right side over the course of his career.

Defensively, he's long since moved out from behind the plate, having not caught a game since 2014. Outside of a seven game stint in right-field during 2017, Santana has honed his craft at first base and designated hitter. While he can be a hitter only, serving as the Indians DH in 92 games during 2016, his first base abilities have generally led him to play the game with a glove at his disposal as well. Over the course of 140 games at first base this season, Santana was among the premium defenders at the position. He posted 10 DRS, a 4.8 UZR, and 1.4 RngR. While Eric Hosmer is a laughable inclusion among the Gold Glove finalists, Santana should be considered a real candidate to win the award along with Mitch Moreland.

For Minnesota, the acquisition of Santana would likely make Robbie Grossman expendable. Whether or not the Twins tender a contract to the switch hitting outfielder, Grossman served as a capable bat in the DH role. For the club to take a step forward next season however, pushing for more than just an on-base machine would be a good practice. Grossman's .741 OPS wasn't the .828 mark he produced in 2016, but the .361 OBP was again respectable. However, he combined to hit just 20 homers over the past two seasons, and put up a total of just 41 doubles.

In Santana, the Twins would be adding to a lineup that has already proven capable of winning games, and doing so without hurting their defense. Santana would be able to spell Joe Mauer at first base, giving the Twins two very good defensive options. Grossman's production would be expanded upon, and a guy like Kennys Vargas would no longer need to surface in the starting lineup. Santana has clubbed 57 homers over the past two seasons, while averaging over 20 in each full season of his career. Add to that the consistent doubles production of around 30 a season, and Minnesota would find themselves with some additional thump to the middle of the order.

Along the lines of priority, I've suggested that the Twins add a starting pitcher and two relievers prior to adding a bat. In reality though, I think a productive offseason consists of each of those four acquisitions becoming a reality. Whether or not Santana is the first domino to fall or the last, it doesn't preclude the club from making the other necessary decisions to put their best foot forward for the 2018 season.

At this point, the door for competitive baseball has begun to open for Minnesota, and as young players like Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton continue to blossom, supplementing them with other proven threats is a must. The Indians are going to remain the team to beat in the AL Central, but counting the Twins out for the division and beyond is probably a foolish decision. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can make this club even more of a contender by being aggressive as the time appears right.

Five Pieces To Change Minnesota Fortunes

With the dust still settling on the Wild Card loss to the New York Yankees, it's probably early for some to be thinking about the offseason for the Twins. That being said, we've officially entered that portion of the program, and this will be the first true offseason for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to tip their hand.

A year ago, Falvey and Levine were new to the organization, and looking to evaluate more than they sought out making waves. Additions came in the form of low risk, low reward types, while the current roster was viewed under a microscope. As we've seen towards the end of the 2017 schedule, internal decisions have been put in process, and there's been a handful of shakeups throughout the organization.

Looking towards the 2018 season, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a good place. The AL Central, aside from the Cleveland Indians, should be in the doldrums. Another playoff berth should be the expectation, and challenging for the division could be a realistic thought with some well timed additions. So, in bolstering the 25 man roster, here's five acquisitions the Twins should be keen on making.

Starting Pitching x 2

There's been more than enough talk of the Twins needing an ace. That couldn't be more true, but in reality, that's a need of virtually every team in baseball. Ace's don't grow on trees, and when they hit the market (which is rare), everyone jumps at acquiring them. Yu Darvish would be more than a nice piece for Minnesota, and the Levine connection is there, but Minnesota simply isn't going to be able to compete with other suitors. I'd imagine both Los Angeles and Texas will be at the top of his list, and that's a tough duo to crack.

More realistically, the Twins adding capable middle-of-the-rotation starters makes a ton of sense. Hector Santiago is gone and bringing in more back end fodder like that doesn't do anything for the growth of the club. Names like Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood would be near the top of my list. Adding two pitchers of that ability gives the Twins four set starters by including Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana. That makes for a good amount of depth competing for the final spot, and puts the organization in a much better place on the mound.

Relief Pitching x 2

I'm generally not a fan of spending on relievers. There's so much uncertainty year over year, and most of the time, big money deals in the pen can flame out. The reality for the Twins however, is that they lack strikeout arms in the bullpen. Aside from Ryan Pressly, there isn't much velocity among the Twins relief corps, and not being able to get timely strikeouts is a problem. I'm a believer in the young arms Minnesota has in the system, but they've been stalled for a myriad of reasons. It's time to bolster that group from outside.

Getting some real velocity for the Twins to call upon in the late innings is a must. If Minnesota is going to hand out a couple of deals in the $7-10 million range, I'd be more than ok seeing that come in relief. Names like Addison Reed or Bryan Shaw would be at the top of my list, with some consideration for a Jake McGee or Luke Greggerson type. The reality is the more games the Twins can close out late, the better off they'll be a year from now. The pen has been as much a deficiency as the starting pitching has, and it's time to rectify both.

Right-handed bat x 1

Throughout the course of the season, one of the Twins greatest issues on offense was the lack of another right-handed power bat. While Robbie Grossman filled in nicely at DH, he leaves plenty to be desired. The reality is, his greatest asset at the plate is his ability to work counts and draw walks. There's a lot more potential in a right handed power bat that Minnesota left on the table. Down the stretch, having that at your disposal would've been a nice boost for the club.

Going forward, there is a little reason to be cautious here as Miguel Sano likely won't play the field forever. When he does have to shift to a full time DH role, making sure any player brought in also has a position is a big deal. That being said, the pipe dream would probably be Carlos Santana. He's a plus defender at first base, a switch hitter, and brings plenty of pop. From there, someone like Mitch Moreland may be a fit as well. There was a good deal of interest in Mike Napoli last offseason, but that appears to have been a bullet dodged.

I'd be far from surprised if the Twins aren't active on both the free agent market as well as the trade front this offseason. Derek Falvey has displayed a keen ability to identify talent, and this club is very close to making that next step. Allowing the 25 man roster to be boosted with some key additions could be more than enough to get this club over the hump. For the first time in years, the Twins will see a new regime have their way with the offseason process, and that's something that should absolutely be welcomed.

Mauer Power Up Front For Twins

When I tried to set the Twins lineup for 2017 back in December, I made the contention that Joe Mauer belonged in the leadoff spot. If he wasn't going to hit first, he should bat somewhere around sixth, but I believe he should absolutely hit first. The question is whether or not Paul Molitor has come around far enough on the idea.

A season ago, Molitor used over 130 different lineup combinations. On a daily basis, he seemed confused as to why he was batting players where he was, and his reasoning rarely would stand up against statistical agreement. Over the course of the season, Mauer was campaigned for as a leadoff hitter by a select few. Unfortunately, Molitor gave him an opportunity in just eight games. Those games came after a stretch in which he had played 31 straight without a day off, and the experiment was abandoned after the May 18th tilt against the Detroit Tigers.

While it's an incredibly small sample size, in the eight instances in which Joe Mauer lead off a game, he owned a very solid .375 on base percentage. Always a high on base guy, Mauer threatened to walk more often (79) than he struck out (93) a year ago. It was his lowest strikeout total since 2013, and his plate approach looked extremely impressive.

Generating contact 86.2% of the time, Mauer saw his best contact percentage since his 2012 year, and his 4.9% swinging strike rate was also the best it's been since that season. He chased pitches out of the zone just 23.2% of the time (another best since 2012), and his plan at the dish looked to be something cut of the cloth from the player we once knew. Given his approach and eye, he turned in a .363 OBP on the year, and that number rose to .383 when looking at production solely off of right handed pitchers. Although not quite the .400+ OBP mark Mauer used to patent, his numbers last season when it came to getting on base were better than any year since his 2013 All Star campaign.

If there's an argument against making Joe Mauer the Minnesota Twins leadoff hitter, it's the dated thought that the top guy in the lineup has to be fast. While there's no denying that Mauer doesn't have earth shattering speed, there is plenty of room to question how much speed should factor in.

Looking at the entirety of Major League Baseball lineups on Opening Day in 2016, only seven players stole 20 bases (just 23% of all leadoff hitters). Of those seven players, only two stole 20 or more bases while also having a higher on base percentage than Mauer's .363. Their names were Jose Altuve and Jean Segura.

If somehow the Twins were able to turn Byron Buxton into a Jose Altuve clone, I think we'd have a pretty clear idea who would bat leadoff. Given that doesn't seem incredibly likely, the speed and on base combination doesn't appear to be in the organization at present. Jean Segura checked in ahead of Mauer as well, but his .368 OBP was easily a career best, and well over his .319 career average. So if speed isn't something that's a commodity available to everyone, we once again find ourselves looking for a guy who gets on base.

Speaking of trying to get on base with a leadoff hitter, the Twins also stand to significantly benefit when it comes to run production. In 2016, Brian Dozier batted leadoff in 73 games. He lead off the game with a homer six different times, and of his 42 longballs, 30 of them came with no runners on base. Generating 99 RBI on the season, if just half of the 30 solo shots included a base runner, Dozier would've plated 114 RBI in 2016. Over the course of the year, Minnesota scored 722 runs, three under league average. Adding 15 to their total would've taken them from 16th to 13th in big league run total.

Being able to quantify the ability Joe Mauer possesses when it comes to getting on base is something that has been at the Twins disposal for years. It's now down to whether or not Paul Molitor wants to utilize it. Interestingly enough, his new boss is not foreign to the idea that using a strong on base guy at the top of the lineup makes a lot of sense. While the Indians batted Rajai Davis leadoff to start the season, Carlos Santana took that baton for 85 G in 2016. His .366 OBP was nearly a mirror image of Mauer's .363.

At the end of the day, the reality of the situation is that the Twins don't have a world beating speedster that totes a strong bat along the lines of Altuve or Mookie Betts. What they do have is one of the best players on the planet when it comes to getting on base, and it's even better if he's given extra rest or platooned to see mostly righties. Although some in the local scene such as 1500 ESPN's Patrick Reusse wanted to scoff at and write off the idea after an eight game sample size, Minnesota remains best positioned with Joe kicking things off.

I'm not sure what pull the front office has when it comes to setting lineups, but Molitor proved he could use some guidance a season ago. If Derek Falvey is going to give it to him, the card should start with Mauer.