Last season was a difficult one to check in with regarding
over under lines put out by major sportsbooks. With the truncated season having
goofy projected stat lines, they never made a ton of sense to dive into.
Normalcy has begun to return, and there’s some money to be made based on
Minnesota performances in the year ahead.
I tend to shy away from RBI focused lines, and the Twins
have a handful of new subjects being considered big enough names worthy of
individual focus for the year ahead. There wasn’t a ton of lines I loved, but
there’s some long shots that also seem incredibly juicy. Let’s get into it.
Jose Berrios OVER 190.5 strikeouts
Each of the past two full seasons, the only he’s pitched in
the majors, Berrios has tallied 202 and 195 strikeouts. Last season in 63.0 IP
the Twins hurler racked up 68 strikeouts, which was nearly a full strikeout
improvement to his K/9 from 2019. I don’t know that we see the Puerto Rican all
of a sudden make a run at a Cy Young award, but I think sustainability is something that will emerge in 2021. Minnesota reworked his offseason routine with
hopes of avoiding the late summer swoon, and Berrios has made velocity
additions under pitching coach Wes Johnson. Let me have the over on what would
otherwise be his lowest full-season strikeout total.
Josh Donaldson OVER 27.5 home runs
In his first year with the Twins Josh Donaldson played in
under 50% of the team’s games. Nagging calf issues aren’t new for the former
MVP, and if nothing else, that should represent some hope in that he’ll know
how to rehab effectively. With Atlanta in 2019, Donaldson crushed 37 dingers,
and even in a 113-game campaign during 2017 he posted 33 longballs. In fact,
the last time Donaldson didn’t hit 27 homers in a year where substantial time
was missed happened way back in 2013. This will be the season that the Bringer
of Rain shows why he was handed a $100 million contract, and he’ll be part of
an offense that provides plenty of thump.
Miguel Sano OVER 35.5 home runs
Hitting 35 homers would represent a career high for the
Twins first basemen. That might make this line seem like a stretch, however, he
clubbed 34 of them in just 105 games during the 2019 season. 2021 is the first
season since he’s been refocused within the game to not have a spring setback.
There’s no achilles injury or bout with Covid and the Dominican appears to be
all systems go. Miguel Sano struck out a ridiculous 43.9% of the time a season
ago yet still hit homers at a pace of 39 per 162 games. I’d bet heavily on him reducing
the whiff rate to something more in line with career norms, and he’s still
going to give away a lot of baseballs to fans back in ballparks.
Minnesota Twins OVER 89.5 wins
This line seems like free money and beyond odd to me. Not
only are the Twins not considered favorites to three-peat in the AL Central, but
it would also represent a division with a second-place team not reaching the
90-win plateau. Back in 2019 that happened in just two divisions, both in the
National League, and with no real secondary competition. Minnesota should still
be expected atop Chicago until the White Sox show otherwise, but even if that
isn’t the case, dropping below 90 wins seems like a really big stretch.
Lead MLB in HRs Miguel Sano (25/1) Nelson Cruz (40/1)
The former seems like a fairly strong bet here. Any player
that should surpass 40 home runs has to be in the conversation for this
accolade, and at 25/1 there’s no reason not to throw something on Sano. I think
he’s more likely to take the title than teammate Nelson Cruz, but the 40/1 odds
for the designated hitter are too juicy to pass up as well. There’s not enough
reason to indicate the favorites are more likely to race out to an easy victory,
so taking a flier makes sense.
AL Cy Young Winner Kenta Maeda (22/1)
Something seems odd here too as Maeda is the reigning
runner-up for this award and yet he’s got longer odds than teammate Jose
Berrios (16/1). Maeda has been flawless through nine innings this spring, but
that’s not really the story here. The former Dodgers starter has always been
overshadowed in Los Angeles and he flashed how good he really is a season ago.
That wasn’t a short season fluke, and a repeat performance wouldn’t be shocking,
while going the distance to establish him as an ace.
