Twins Bets Worth Cashing in 2021

 

Last season was a difficult one to check in with regarding over under lines put out by major sportsbooks. With the truncated season having goofy projected stat lines, they never made a ton of sense to dive into. Normalcy has begun to return, and there’s some money to be made based on Minnesota performances in the year ahead.

 

I tend to shy away from RBI focused lines, and the Twins have a handful of new subjects being considered big enough names worthy of individual focus for the year ahead. There wasn’t a ton of lines I loved, but there’s some long shots that also seem incredibly juicy. Let’s get into it.

 

Jose Berrios OVER 190.5 strikeouts

 

Each of the past two full seasons, the only he’s pitched in the majors, Berrios has tallied 202 and 195 strikeouts. Last season in 63.0 IP the Twins hurler racked up 68 strikeouts, which was nearly a full strikeout improvement to his K/9 from 2019. I don’t know that we see the Puerto Rican all of a sudden make a run at a Cy Young award, but I think sustainability is something that will emerge in 2021. Minnesota reworked his offseason routine with hopes of avoiding the late summer swoon, and Berrios has made velocity additions under pitching coach Wes Johnson. Let me have the over on what would otherwise be his lowest full-season strikeout total.

 

Josh Donaldson OVER 27.5 home runs

 

In his first year with the Twins Josh Donaldson played in under 50% of the team’s games. Nagging calf issues aren’t new for the former MVP, and if nothing else, that should represent some hope in that he’ll know how to rehab effectively. With Atlanta in 2019, Donaldson crushed 37 dingers, and even in a 113-game campaign during 2017 he posted 33 longballs. In fact, the last time Donaldson didn’t hit 27 homers in a year where substantial time was missed happened way back in 2013. This will be the season that the Bringer of Rain shows why he was handed a $100 million contract, and he’ll be part of an offense that provides plenty of thump.

 

Miguel Sano OVER 35.5 home runs

 

Hitting 35 homers would represent a career high for the Twins first basemen. That might make this line seem like a stretch, however, he clubbed 34 of them in just 105 games during the 2019 season. 2021 is the first season since he’s been refocused within the game to not have a spring setback. There’s no achilles injury or bout with Covid and the Dominican appears to be all systems go. Miguel Sano struck out a ridiculous 43.9% of the time a season ago yet still hit homers at a pace of 39 per 162 games. I’d bet heavily on him reducing the whiff rate to something more in line with career norms, and he’s still going to give away a lot of baseballs to fans back in ballparks.

 

Minnesota Twins OVER 89.5 wins

 

This line seems like free money and beyond odd to me. Not only are the Twins not considered favorites to three-peat in the AL Central, but it would also represent a division with a second-place team not reaching the 90-win plateau. Back in 2019 that happened in just two divisions, both in the National League, and with no real secondary competition. Minnesota should still be expected atop Chicago until the White Sox show otherwise, but even if that isn’t the case, dropping below 90 wins seems like a really big stretch.

 

Lead MLB in HRs Miguel Sano (25/1) Nelson Cruz (40/1)

 

The former seems like a fairly strong bet here. Any player that should surpass 40 home runs has to be in the conversation for this accolade, and at 25/1 there’s no reason not to throw something on Sano. I think he’s more likely to take the title than teammate Nelson Cruz, but the 40/1 odds for the designated hitter are too juicy to pass up as well. There’s not enough reason to indicate the favorites are more likely to race out to an easy victory, so taking a flier makes sense.

 

AL Cy Young Winner Kenta Maeda (22/1)

 

Something seems odd here too as Maeda is the reigning runner-up for this award and yet he’s got longer odds than teammate Jose Berrios (16/1). Maeda has been flawless through nine innings this spring, but that’s not really the story here. The former Dodgers starter has always been overshadowed in Los Angeles and he flashed how good he really is a season ago. That wasn’t a short season fluke, and a repeat performance wouldn’t be shocking, while going the distance to establish him as an ace.

Maeda Emerges as the Ace Minnesota Needed

 

All offseason the talk was that the Minnesota Twins needed an ace. Someone that could slot into the rotation at the level of Jose Berrios or higher would fit that bill. There was plenty of consternation when it took moving Brusdar Graterol to land the piece, but Kenta Maeda is here to stay.

 

The Dodgers signed Maeda out of Japan and his first season in the majors came at 28-years-old. Despite being relied upon for over 500 innings while with Los Angeles, Maeda was often shuffled back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. Given their overall pitching strength it was a luxury LA had, but one that wore on the Japanese star.

 

Deemed expendable this offseason and enticed by a flame throwing prospect, the Dodgers made the move and Minnesota got their guy. Dubbed a number three in the Dodgers rotation behind the likes of Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, there was always plenty of upside for the Twins to exploit. Fast forward to the final week of the 2020 Major League Baseball season and Minnesota seems to have found their ace.

 

Through 10 starts Maeda owns a sparkling 2.52 ERA. He has a career best 10.5 K/9 and also is allowing a career low 1.5 BB/9. He leads the league with a 5.3 H/9 and also has a league leading 0.758 WHIP. He’s got a 5-1 record in the decisions column, and Minnesota is 7-3 when he takes the ball. He’s yet to miss a quality start in any turn, and he’s gone at least 6.0 IP in seven of his 10 total outings.

 

No matter how you define the role of an ace Kenta Maeda has embodied it this season. He’s been dominant. He’s been reliable. He’s been consistent. Now it also looks like he’ll be rewarded as Minnesota’s game one starter in the Wild Card round of the Postseason. Starting on Wednesday the 23^rd against the Tigers, he lines up to toe take the ball when the Twins open a home playoff series.

 

There could certainly be some handwringing over the fact that it’s Maeda and not Jose Berrios being entrusted with the opportunity to set the tone in a short series, however this elevation of ability is probably good for both of them. Berrios really struggled out of the gate this year for the Twins, and despite being dominant of late, he had an uphill battle to climb. It was hoped that 2020 would be another step forward for Jose, and while the sum of all parts may represent as much, it’s again been a tale of two halves.

 

As Minnesota looks to rebuild their rotation again in 2021, with plenty of departures pending, it will be a welcome relief that Berrios is joined by another constant in Maeda. Neither of these guys will crack true ace status across baseball, reserved for just the top ten or so arms in the sport. However, both can pitch as staff aces, and the ability to be interchangeable or play off of one another is something that Rocco Baldelli and his staff have to be excited about for years to come.

 

It’s certainly not easy moving on from a prospect that has been talked up for so long. When you have an opportunity to cash in for proven, upper level talent though, you have to jump at it. Maybe Brusdar Graterol will turn out to be more than Maeda ever is, but by that time Minnesota will be long past the current window they’re looking to capitalize on.

 

You wanted an ace Twins fans, and he’s here, in the form of Kenta Maeda.

Projecting the Twins 2020 Opening Day Roster 2.0

The last stab I took at this was on January 20^th. There haven’t been many moves since then, but the ones that have been made are absolutely monumental. While I felt good about where that version of the Twins was, it’s undeniable they are much better off now. Putting out one final projection prior to Spring Training getting underway, here’s where I see things as of today.

Projection 1.0

Catchers (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila

No change here. These two are locked in and ready to go. Garver will need to stave off some expected regression, but he’ll also be dealing with an expanded workload. If Willians Astudillo pushes his was onto the roster, I don’t see the playing time coming behind the plate.

Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson. Ehire Adrianza

Another position group with no change. Donaldson punctuated the offseason when Minnesota signed him to the 4^th biggest deal handed out this winter. This group will need to take a step forwards defensively, and I’m confident that they should be able to.

Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave

More status quo here. The final position spot comes down to Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for me, and I don’t see the utility of Astudillo being a net positive. He’s below average everywhere, while Cave can handle the bat and play all three outfield positions. The infield is more stable this season, and although Marwin should spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot, he’s the utility guy you feel comfortable about moving around.

Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz

Yes, still here to hit bombas.

Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Jhoulys Chacin

This is the group that has seen the most change. Chacin was signed to a minor league deal, and while 2019 was awful, he was great in 2018. If the Twins see signs of that at all during the spring, they’ll have picked up a very solid 5^th starter. I like the long-term ability of Lewis Thorpe, and both Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer have looked strong, but they all have options remaining. Now adding a bonafide stud in Kenta Maeda, this is a group that should be plenty capable of racing out to a second straight division title.

Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers. Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak

This group stays the same as I had it in round one, but that was prior to Minnesota designating Brusdar Graterol a reliever. He absolutely would have been on the roster, but instead was used to swing the deal for Maeda. Coming off a 2019 that saw this group finish as the third best unit in baseball, they’ve added some very quality pieces to make another run at the top.

Bye, Bye, Boston…and Brusdar

In the end, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stood strong. After originally agreeing to a one-for-one swap of Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda, things needed to be tweaks after the Red Sox decided against the Minnesota prospects medicals. Two days before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, we got resolution.

The Twins wound up not dealing with Boston at all, instead sending Graterol to the Dodgers (who had no problem with his medicals). They got Maeda, $10 million, and a yet-to-be announce prospect. Sweetening the deal just a bit, Luke Raley (who was acquired with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade) goes back to Los Angeles, and Minnesota sent the Dodgers their Comp B pick (67^th overall).

Complete trade:#MNTwins get-
Kenta Maeda
Low level Prospect
$10MM#Dodgers get-
Brusdar Graterol
Comp pick B (67th overall)

— Ted (@tlschwerz) February 9, 2020

Obviously the one-for-one version of this deal was the most ideal for the Twins. It’s likely why they agreed in the first place, and assumedly why Boston decided they needed to reassess things. However, Minnesota moved a very good arm they believe is ticketed for relief work, in order to get a top-50 starter that could slot in right behind Jose Berrios in the starting rotation.

Losing Raley isn’t the top 10 prospect situation that Boston was demanding, and while he’s a nice player, this isn’t an outfield he was going to crack given what’s established and who’s ahead of him. Getting the cash is hardly inconsequential as well. Maeda is guaranteed just $12.5 million over the course of his deal, and being on the hook for just $2.5 million of that is a nice situation to be in. Incentives drive the price up plenty, but being performance base, they’re benchmarks the Twins would happily see come to fruition.

I dissected this swap when the news originally broke, and nothing changes for the Twins from a roster construction point now. They still have a very good bullpen, this rotation is substantially better, and there’s still significant prospect capital to make more moves when deemed necessary.

Through all of this the only real loser is the former Twins fireballer. Graterol watched his name be drug through the mud in a very public way despite showing no indications of immediate injury concern. Instead of believing he could go down the street, he’ll now hop a plane from Fort Myers to Glendale beginning his 2020 season with a new organization.

Chaim Bloom landed some very solid prospects despite packaging a superstar into a salary dump. The Dodgers net a pitcher in Price that is more than desirable if healthy, and arguably the second best player on the planet in Mookie Betts. Minnesota never needed to be involved in any of this, and at the end of the day they really weren’t. An opportunity arose to get their impact starter two days before camp opens, and the front office jumped at it.

Now I think we can put a bow on this offseason and commend both Falvey and Levine for orchestrating what boils down to a solid “A” effort.

My buddy @ThatSportsGamer wants to help #MNTwins fans welcome former #Dodgers pitcher Kenta Maeda to Twins Territory. RT to enter for a chance to win a @Topps RC.

Must be following @tlschwerz and @ThatSportsGamer to win. pic.twitter.com/wjP7UTM1lY

— Ted (@tlschwerz) February 10, 2020

Blockbuster Deal Sends Maeda to the Twins

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just put an absolute bow on the 2020 Minnesota Twins offseason. After acquiring Josh Donaldson in January, the refrain was whether or not he could pitch. Now nabbing Kenta Maeda from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the answer is yes he can.

Across Twins Territory there should be some absolute shock with this one. Not only was the impact-pitching arm acquired, but it absolutely cost an impact prospect. Brusdar Graterol showed up on the Major League scene last summer and brandished his triple-digit fastball. Showing off the bazooka arm, it was hard not to dream on him as a starting prospect.

It was apparent that there have been concerns about what Graterol profiles at in the bigs however. He’s never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, and he never worked exclusively as a starter in 2019. The talk going into the year was that Minnesota would unleash him in the pen, and the feeling was he had not yet developed the necessary secondary stuff to make it multiple times through the order.

Any time you see a big name prospect like this moved, it’s going to be hard to sift through the feelings. The message from Minnesota here is clear however. The window is open and the front office has kicked down the door. They see Graterol as a reliever long term, and conversely viewed him as the third best option in the up and coming trio including Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran.

In Maeda the Twins get their coveted impact arm. He’s soon-to-be 32-years-old and is not a free agent until 2024. He will be paid just $3.125 million per year the rest of his deal, and he’s a strikeout threat pumping double-digits per nine innings. I'm not sure Minnesota viewed the tradeoff like this when the offseason started, but they passed on signing a 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner (with nearly identical numbers) to a five-year deal paying $17 million per season. In comparison, their decision looks pretty good.

The #MNTwins just acquired Kenta Maeda and three years of team control for pennies by giving up a guy they view as an elite reliever at best.

It cost the #Cubs Gleyber Torres and all of his control, for 3 months of Aroldis Chapman in a tradeoff to win the World Series.

— Ted (@tlschwerz) February 5, 2020

Although Maeda’s ERA’s haven’t always been glowing, he’s posted a FIP north of 4.00 just once in his four year MLB career. Walks have crept up in recent years, but he generally does a good job avoiding danger. Slotting in behind both Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, there’s zero reason why he can’t elevate and assume an even large role in the rotation.

This move pushes Minnesota’s payroll up above $140 million landing somewhere around $145 million. That’s a nice expansion on the previous record of $128.4 million in 2018, and gives them plenty of flexibility now and in the future.

Buckle up Twins fans; we’ve got a contender here.