Final Roster Signifies Hopeful Horizon

Minnesota Twins catcher Josmil Pinto (43, center left) is hugged by designated hitter Kennys Vargas (19) Saturday, Feb. 28, 2015 at CenturyLink Sports Complex in Fort Myers, Fla. Today marked the first full-squad workout of spring training. (Corey Perrine/Staff)

The Minnesota Twins announced that they will bring Chris Herrmann north to backup catcher Kurt Suzuki. With the move, it effectively ends any speculation as to whether or not Paul Molitor would choose to go with the power hitting backstop Josmil Pinto. Like the outfield decisions before it, the selection of the backup catcher for the Twins is a safe decision. At the end of the day, it all adds up to a roster that is likely to improve through the addition to its total parts.

There's very little argument to be made that Herrmann is a more major league capable player than Pinto. Despite batting .304/.373/.505 at Triple-A Rochester a season ago, Herrmann is a career .196/.264/.284 hitter in 250 major league at bats. He probably gives the Twins a more serviceable backstop, and he offers positional flexibility, but you'd be kidding yourself not to suggest he leaves something to be desired. That being said, the Twins weren't put in the most ideal position when it came to making the decision.

Even neglecting the fact that Pinto recently dealt with concussion like symptoms, injuries and other issues allowed him to play in just eight spring training games. Knowing it will be his bat that carries him at the major league level, Minnesota wanted to see improvement from the .219/.315/.391 slash line that was posted just a season ago. With limited exposure down in Fort Myers, there just was not enough time for Pinto to lay claim to the spot. Undoubtedly someone that will never be a good defensive catcher, Pinto should ride his bat to the big club in short order this season. That notion is something that the Twins likely see taking place across the board.

Like with Pinto, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, and Alex Meyer all find themselves in similar situations. From the get go, the Twins made safe decisions when it came to the Opening Day roster. Looking to have a sure thing (even at the cost of a limited ceiling), the Twins turned away from more enticing options. While that's not the desired result for fans, or even for the club immediately looking to turn the corner, it continues to drive the narrative that this club can excel from within.

As the season kicks off in Rochester, it will be those five players that have the most to gain. A litany of factors will determine when exactly they surface with the big league club, but you can bet the timing will be in the best interest of the club. Should one get off to a hot start, combined with a slow one from a current active roster member, seeing a late April or May move would make sense. Each of the five players mentioned has a relatively high ceiling. If the Twins can get them trending towards that direction prior to their callup, they will only increase the overall potential for the big league club.

For the Twins to surprise, and make a splash large than expected in 2015, it will come through the timely promotion of guys within the organization. A need being exposed at the top, and being filled from a player that can excel in the role, is something that should continue to be a worthwhile storyline long into the summer.

Pitching As A Relative Strength

Although more often than not I put some thought into a topic before putting together a full fledged post, sometimes the topic just happens. This afternoon, a follower on Twitter posed a very interesting question. He asked, "Where do you see the Twins rotation amongst the AL Central competition." As recently as last season, it would be easy to quickly dismiss the thought and suggest they are dead last. Heading into 2015 however, it's not quite as easy.

To understand the foundation the Twins stand on, we probably first need to comprehend what they are up against. Going in order of how I see the AL Central shaking out, let's take a look.

Detroit Tigers

I still hate the idea that the Tigers could win the AL Central, but looking at the White Sox and Indians, the Tigers still are where I lean. Although the Detroit offense should be impressive if it can stay healthy, this rotation is not at all at the same level as 2014. I'm not going to claim to know the order of any of these other rotations, but here is likely how the Tigers go:

1. David Price
2. Anibal Sanchez
3. Justin Verlander (skipped while on DL)
4. Shane Greene
5. Alfredo Simon

Last season, Price came over from the Rays and was welcomed rather uncomfortably. Sure, he posted a 3.26 ERA, but he also gave up more than four runs four different times in just 11 starts. There's no doubt he's deserving of the looming extension (and after losing Max Scherzer Detroit has to pay the man), but I'm not sure that brighter days are ahead. Anibal Sanchez is a constant injury risk, and while on he's great, the Tigers simply shouldn't rely on him at this point.

I was of the belief that Verlander would bounce back this season, but he's showing signs of age before the season even gets going. I like Greene's upside, but there's still plenty for him to prove. Rounding out the rotation, a 33 year old Simon got paid off of his first year starting since 2011. His 4.33 FIP (fielding independent pitching) last season causes some real reason for concern.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are going to need their offense to show up, and I think it will. Their rotation has plenty of power at the top, but there's a significant cliff at the end. Here's who should be included:

1. Chris Sale (beginning on the DL)
2. Jeff Samardzija
3. Jose Quintana
4. John Danks
5. Hector Noesi

Sale and Samardzija are both quality pitchers and the White Sox should be fine there. Samardzija passed his regression test with Oakland (3.14 ERA in 16 starts) and should be counted on to continue the trend. From there however, things get uncertain.

I like Quintana and think he can is a quality major league starter. He's young and he should only get better, if not for the next two, this is my favorite rotation in the Central. John Danks is rough, and as a 4th option even worse. He's getting paid, and the White Sox didn't want to go with the youngster Carlos Rodon yet. That will hurt them. Noesi is a back end of the rotation guy and is prone to blowups. He doesn't strike many out and doesn't miss enough bats. Knowing that Brad Penny is the option behind him, the White Sox are in trouble if they need to start shuffling.

Cleveland Indians

If you love the Indians to be a dark horse in the Central, and even the American League this year (and plenty do), it begins and ends with their rotation. Offensively, the Tribe should score, but they will need to be banking on the return of Kipnis and Swisher, while hoping that Moss and Brantley continue to perform. The biggest reason I dislike the Indians as a trendy team is that I don't buy their rotation:

1. Corey Kluber
2. Carlos Carrasco
3. Trevor Bauer
4. Zach McAllister
5. TJ House

Kluber is the reigning Cy Young. He's a stud, nothing to see there. The Indians will then give the ball to Carrasco, who's started just 54 games in his five year major league career. Last year he owned a 2.55 ERA but made only 14 starts. He had a 2.44 FIP a season ago, yet he had never posted a mark better than 4.10 previously in his career. Carrasco has also never thrown more than 134 innings in a season. It's too small of a sample size, and I just can't get on board.

I like Bauer more than most, but the former top prospect is much to uncertain to rely on. He'll be lights out one night, and a walk machine the next. McAllister and House rounding out the group shouldn't excite anyone. Blame some poor defense (3.45 FIP/5.23 ERA) but McAllister didn't prove anything a year ago. House has a good deal of upside and should be expected to take steps forward, but his 3.69 FIP was actually worse than his ERA (3.35) and it will be interesting to see how he competes in his second year in the big leagues.

Kansas City Royals

If the Indians are the trendy pick, the Royals are anything but. I have them finishing at the bottom of the division and I just don't like their offseason at all. It's not that losing James Shields was detrimental, but the pieces they brought in as replacements should cause skepticism. Here is how the rotation should look:

1. Yordano Ventura
2. Danny Duffy
3. Edinson Volquez
4. Jason Vargas
5. Jeremy Guthrie

First, yuck. Second, the Royals rotation was recently ranked as one of the worst in the major leagues, and it's with good reason. Ventura may very well be a Cy Young candidate, but the cliff begins after him. Danny Duffy should be expected to provide quality again for Kansas City, but a 3.83 FIP and a 2.53 ERA suggest his surroundings were a large part of the reason for his success. Edinson Volquez coming over from Pittsburgh could get ugly quick. He owns a 4.44 career ERA with all but three seasons coming in the National League. He's posted an FIP under 4.00 only once, and that was size years ago.

Both Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie are on the wrong side of 30, with the former likely staring an ERA near 5.00 in the face. The fact that Joe Blanton believes he can crack this group on the back end is probably telling in and of itself.

Minnesota Twins

This brings us to the Twins (no I don't have them finishing last). While Minnesota's offense was in the top ten in runs scored a season ago, it didn't matter with the rotation bleeding runs. It's quite conceivable that the bullpen will be the culprit this season, but the rotation should have far more questions than answers. It's slated to look like this:

1. Phil Hughes
2. Ervin Santana
3. Ricky Nolasco
4. Kyle Gibson
5. Tommy Milone

Hughes was lights out last season, but for the most part, that could have been expected. His FIP (2.65) improved as it should have leaving Yankee Stadium. Although the outfield defense is expected to get worse, Hughes doesn't have to prevent a record amount of walks to improve. His 3.52 ERA leaves room to get lower, and he should once again be considered a staff ace.

Of the group, Santana may actually be the wild card. While I'm excited by the signing, I noted that Santana actually concerns me a decent amount this year. The Twins need him to be good, and better than his trends suggest. Nolasco was billed as an innings eater and an ace when signed last offseason. that was a mistake by the Twins, and only compounded by the former Marlin pitching through injury. He's never going to be a top of the rotation guy, but an ERA right around 4.00 and a quality third starter should be expected.

Gibson likely stands to take the biggest step forward this year. Settled into a guaranteed rotation spot, and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Minnesota should expect more from their former first round pick. He's never going to strike a lot of guys out, but getting his K/9 up around 7.0 is fair and something that should lower his ERA into the high three range.

The fifth spot is likely going to be the most fluid for the Twins. Milone isn't exciting, but you know what you're going to get. His 4.21 FIP average isn't going to be conducive to a low ERA, but Target Field should aid him just like the Coliseum. Healthy this season, he can give the Twins innings at a 4.10 clip until Alex Meyer or Trevor May is ready.

While this became extremely long winded, I hope the point got across. There is no clear cut favorite when it comes to rotations in the AL Central. At the end of the day, the top dogs have more questions than answers on the back end. The Twins may not have the top tier aces, but they probably have more reliable quality throughout. Minnesota is not yet in a position to consider the rotation a strength, but if the Twins are going to shock some people, it will come on the backs of their starting pitchers hovering around their perceived potential.

Twins Poised For Big Opening Day

As we sit today, 11 days away from the home opener at Target Field, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a great position. Coming off of four straight 90 loss campaigns, there is plenty of reason for the local fan base to be skeptical of this year's club. However, whether you want to blame it on the cold winter, or the revamped pitching staff, it appears that there is plenty of buzz around the 2015 Minnesota Twins.

The club announced this morning that the home opener against the Kansas City Royals on Monday, April 13 is in fact sold out. A quick perusal of StubHub also shows that while standing room tickets can be had, the $30 price point is markedly higher than is typically expected for the Twins.

Thanks to you awesome @Twins fans, our Home Opener on April 13 vs. KC is SOLD OUT! http://t.co/GOYqZrOXcC pic.twitter.com/pWL5iJhIap
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) April 2, 2015

Sure, the club is giving away a free Twins hoodie to every fan that enters on the 13th, but it would be crazy to attribute the influx of excitement to that. Should things stay in their current order, Ricky Nolasco is set to take the bump for the Twins. Although he was terrible last season, there's plenty of reason to believe the former Marlins pitcher bounces back in a big way.

In throwing out some of the lesser reasons that fans will be flocking to the home of Minnesota baseball on the 13th, that leaves us with the only obvious answer. This team actually has a chance to be good. Now, stick with me here for a little bit because I know that's not something warmly received in these parts. However, we've been over this time and again. The Twins are very realistically going to be around 79 wins this season, but with things going their way, the ceiling could conceivably be even higher. Knowing that the opportunity to improve the bullpen from within, as well as the every day lineup, Minnesota has options as to how they go about diagramming their season.

While they will have already played through series with both Detroit and Chicago, the Twins will come home with renewed hope for the upcoming year. The American league is a wide open race, and although the Twins won't be near the top of it, the Central would do well to not take them lightly.

For the fan sick of losing, the home opener represents a chance to start anew. With a whole slate ahead of the team, writing them off from the get go would seem to be a poor decision. The construction of the current roster is no doubt in better shape than previous history, and it would appear that the ticket sales suggest people are more than aware.

Find a way to hold off judgement until the summer, things will take shape on their own. Until then, continue to enjoy something Target Field hasn't seen for a while. Sellout crowds.

MLB 15: The Show Lights Up The Diamond

As with most sports gaming franchises, the unfortunate reality is that reinventing the wheel on a yearly basis is simply not something that can be accomplished. Creating an exciting new product is general done by tweaking features and making a stronger version of what was before. Enter MLB 15: The Show, the 10th game in the line of what is arguably the most successful baseball franchise ever.

As MLB 14: The Show and each iteration before it laid the groundwork, it is MLB 15 that truly takes the step into the next generation. From the onset, the game provides a different experience. For those who played last year's version on the PlayStation 4, loading times were something that immensely hampered the game. Even disregarding the PlayStation 4's new pick up and play feature, MLB 15 has taken massive strides in the loading department. Allowing gamers to spend more time on the diamond and less time waiting to get there is truly a great thing.

On the diamond itself, immersion has been increased this season to provide a whole new level of realism. While the shadowing as well as the dynamic sun and lighting have been boasted about, it may actually be the smaller nuances that set the experience apart. This year, the team behind MLB 15 set out to remove screen clutter. In taking away interfaces from the pitcher and batter cameras, MLB 15: The Show presents itself like a real live broadcast in game.

As should be the focus for a game involving so much though, the gameplay between the lines for MLB 15 also has been amped up. The directional hitting is wonderfully executed, and is something that baseball minds will appreciate across multiple different in game situations. Allowing for quick shifts to be employed, and be represented accurately, is also something that MLB 15 hits right on the head. Directional pad menu hot keys return this year once again, and in doing so allow you to make lineup changes without ever feeling too far from the action. Managerial reviews are implemented for the first time in the series, and they feel well integrated and not overdone.

Looking at the game modes MLB 15: The Show brings to the table, it may be best to remember the idea of something unbroken not needing fixing. While the same great game modes return (Road to the Show, Franchise, Exhibition, Online, and Diamond Dynasty) some minor changes enhance the experience. In franchise, trade finder is finally implemented, and helps you figure out which competing clubs may have an interest in some of your assets. The menu system in franchise, as well as the game as a whole, has been wonderfully redesigned. Diamond Dynasty is revamped and pushes towards the territory of EA Sports Ultimate Team, when it comes to execution. All in all, the game modes you want are still there, but they have received enough attention to feel fresh.

Unfortunately, MLB 15: The Show did neglect to do anything with Road to the Show. Outside of the inclusion of licensed gear, the mode remains unchanged. While not a mode played by all, it could use a refresh in the next iteration of the title.

At the end of the day, MLB 15: The Show takes what has worked and expands upon it. Immersion is increased through baseball focused gameplay differences, licensed gear, and enhanced lighting. If you are a fan of the series, there's nothing you won't like here. Expecting a monumental change year over year isn't going to happen, but MLB 15: The Show is more than worth the price of admission. Now if we could get some in-game rainouts, you could consider me a happy camper.

The Pen And its Potential

This morning, the Minnesota Twins sent Caleb Thielbar out of major league camp and back to Triple-A Rochester. With the move, the 2015 bullpen is set in stone at the major league level. Without a doubt the group has more questions marks than anything, but the potential may lie just beyond those questions.

First, let's take a quick look at how the Twins will set up the relief pitchers for the coming year:

• Blaine Boyer-Middle Reliever
• J.R. Graham-Middle Reliever
• Mike Pelfrey-Middle Reliever
• Brian Duensing-Lefty Specialist
• Tim Stauffer-Long Reliever
• Casey Fien-Setup Man
• Glen Perking-Closer

Woof! Ok now that we have that out of the way, only Glen Perkins would appear to be a pitcher that can be counted on. Assuming he's healthy, and that's probably somewhat of a sketchy assumption, Perkins will be one of the better closers in the American League. Outside of him however, the Twins have compiled a pen of relatively low-upside players, some in new roles, and some battling through regressing trends.

So where does this potential come in? Due to the current construction of the Twins bullpen, the upside is actually within who's not a part of the Opening Day list, and how they could quickly push for time.

Starting with the most exciting options, prospects Nick Burdi and Jake Reed have a lot to gain this season with the Twins. Both high selections in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, Burdi and Reed have been deserving of the hype thus far in their professional career.

After playing in the College World Series for the Louisville Cardinals, Burdi went on to continue lighting up radar guns for the Twins. Pitching through both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, Burdi had just one bad outing in 20 games (coincidentally it was his first). Across the two levels, he compiled a 16.8 K/9 while pitching to the tune of a 2.66 ERA. It's pretty safe to say that Burdi made easy work of the lower levels of the organization, and will be accelerated this season. Whether he starts in Fort Myers or Chattanooga, expect him to surface with the Twins sooner rather than later. If he can continue along the same path, he should become an option at the back of the Twins pen over the summer. Fien slipping up would likely cede chances to a Michael Tonkin type first, but it also opens the door for Burdi.

In the earlier innings, the Twins find a middle reliever in Reed that they should be able to count on for years to come. Selected out of Oregon, Reed dominated Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He continued the trend in overpowering the Arizona Fall League as well, traditionally filled with top tier prospects. Reed owned an 11.3 K/9 in 20 games last season while walking just 0.9 batters per nine innings. Efficient and dominant, the Twins will be looking to get him to the big leagues in short order as well.

Likely slated for Fort Myers, Reed may have the most to gain this year. With Pelfrey, Boyer, Graham, and even Stauffer all being relative question marks, the door should swing open. While Lester Oliveros, Logan Darnell, A.J. Achter and others reside in the higher rungs of the organization, it's Reed that the Twins can elevate the most with. Should he be able to replicate his 2014 season, Reed will get an early look from the Twins, and could be an asset to them down the stretch.

Really, the biggest takeaway from the current bullpen situation is that it is going to be an evolving entity for the Twins. Like I mentioned yesterday with positional players, the Twins can control their own talent level from within. Should they find themselves competing in the middle of the year, with pitchers like Reed and Burdi looking strong, and the bullpen in rough shape, they immediately have internal options. The current bullpen structure should be good enough to keep what is an improved staff happy, but the Twins taking a leap will come on the promotion of their top tier prospects.

Having made pitcher heavy selections in the first ten round of the draft last season, most with relief intentions, the Twins have plenty to gain by going down on the farm. Although the bullpen is worrisome right now, expect leashes to be short, and options to be plentiful. The Twins surprising this season is going to involve some gutsy decisions.

Twins Can Trade With Themselves

Minnesota Twins's Miguel Sano follows through on a two-run home run in the sixth inning of an exhibition spring training baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Saturday, March 14, 2015, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

90 loss seasons are a thing of the past, and ugly Twins baseball is so 2014. As the 2015 Major League Baseball season kicks off in Detroit just under a week from today, the Twins have their sights set much higher. As I dissected earlier today, both the ceiling and the floor are in respectable places when it comes to the 2015 Twins. One of the biggest positives for this team however, is that reaching the ceiling comes with a certain level of control from within.

If you remember back to a season ago, the Twins made a relatively big splash at the beginning of June. Despite a losing record (29-31 on June 8th), Minnesota was just five games back in the AL Central, and two and a half games out of the wild card race. In an effort to bolster the offense, the Twins signed Kendrys Morales to a $12 million one year deal. Despite the struggles on the mound, the Twins believed scoring more would be the key to their eventual success. Unfortunately, the deal didn't work out, and the Twins later flipped Morales to the Seattle Mariners for relief pitcher Stephen Pryor.

The decision to sign Morales was not a quick thought, however it did seemingly come out of nowhere. The Twins didn't look like they were going to compete, despite hanging around, and Morales had sat out the first part of the season. Terry Ryan decided that his club was in position to make a run, and thought that Morales was the missing piece. At a press conference he said, "I read there were probably a handful of clubs that were chasing Kendrys. We were ahead of many of those clubs in the standings." While that may be true, the Twins missed on Morales, and he was hardly the key to their issues even if the deal had worked out.

In 2015 however, Minnesota's best trades and signings will likely come from within. Instead of having to go out and look for a Kendrys Morales type hitter on the open market, Minnesota could choose to call up power hitting prospect Miguel Sano. The similar June timeline would provide the Twins an immediate boost to their lineup, and could push them further into the playoff race. If the club finds themselves needing a pitcher, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and potentially even Jose Berrios could all be looked at as options. Instead of dealing a prospect or handing out more money, Minnesota could go the route of an internal phone call to improve the roster. Quite possibly the biggest move the organization will make involves Byron Buxton. Baseball's best prospect could be called up to help the team push through the summer months and in turn lay the groundwork for what winning is to come in the future.

As Minnesota, and first year manager Paul Molitor progress through the upcoming season, plenty of decisions will be made. With the team in a good spot to be overlooked, and potentially surprise some of the competition, knowing they have a handful of aces in their back pocket is a great thing. Not having to worry about surrendering assets for immediate gain, Minnesota can begin to reap the fruits of a farm system that is loaded with talent.

It's more than fair to argue that the Twins have slow-played youth in the past. This season however will provide the organization with some interesting opportunities. Weighing current production for the minor leagues, as well as the positioning of the big league club, the organization actually holds a stacked deck when it comes to advancing itself from within.

The Ceiling And The Floor

Currently, the Minnesota Twins are less than a week away from kicking off their 2015 Major League Baseball season. Having hovered right around the .500 mark this spring, new manager Paul Molitor should have a good idea of the areas of strength, and where the team needs work. Heading north, the Twins will be looking to break away from the trend that is losing 90 games each of the last four seasons. More than any other recent season, the 2015 Twins have both a respectable ceiling and a relatively high floor. Maximizing on opportunities will determine which direction they trend in.

Last season, Minnesota vastly outproduced expectations on the offensive end. Getting key contributions from players like Danny Santana, Kurt Suzuki, and even Jordan Schafer, the Twins saw more runs score than they could have imagined. Unfortunately, even with unexpected batting averages being inflated, the Twins failed to capitalize in the wins category due to poor pitching. There's no doubt that once again the mound was an area of focus this offseason, and the Twins appear to be in a better place.

When looking at how high the Twins ceiling is for 2015, everything begins and ends with pitching. Although Ervin Santana was the club's only offseason addition, the staff looks retooled and competitive for the first time in years. Gone are the days of Cole De Vries and Samuel Deduno making the Opening Day rotation. Minnesota has a true ace in Phil Hughes, and he backed by arms such as Kyle Gibson, Santana, and Ricky Nolasco. Rounding out the rotation, Tommy Milone is more than capable of getting the job done as a 5th starter at the major league level. The improved pitching should only substantiate a lineup designed to score runs.

Looking at the offense, there's no doubt the Twins will see some regression. Of the players mentioned above as breakouts, next to none of them should be expected to replicate their 2014 level of success. Getting key contributions from players like Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, and Oswaldo Arcia in 2015 should make the regression less detrimental however. Minnesota's lineup boasts at least five guys capable of 20 home run seasons, and solid pitching performances should not be wasted this time around.

Trying to quantify the ceiling in the win/loss column is probably more assumption based than everything. As it stands currently, I have the Twins coming in at 79-83. Should they have things break in their favor and maximize on their opportunities, an 86 win campaign would not be out of the realm of possibility. That win total should be good enough to get them near the top of the AL Central and into the Wild Card round as well. The Central is competitive as a whole, but the top has gotten worse while the bottom has gotten better. Minnesota can no doubt play with, and beat, any team in the division.

So what if it all crashes and burns?

Before thinking doomsday, there's no doubt that this Twins roster is built for regression. Handling, and overcoming adversity is something that the 2015 Twins should be more than capable of doing. Once again, everything begins and ends with pitching however, and that could be where the Twins find their breakdown.

I have a hard time quantifying what the floor looks like for the Twins this season. They have a handful of options when and if guys go down, and each of them is capable in a limited capacity. However, if Nolasco fails to bounce back, Milone struggles, and Gibson doesn't develop, Minnesota could be in some trouble. A rotation highlighting only Hughes again would be extremely detrimental to this club. Although I think Santana is going to be fine with the Twins, he does have a couple of concerning factors that could come into play.

From a numerical standpoint, the floor isn't where it once was. If the Twins mid-point is the 79-83 record I referenced above, than the floor is somewhere around 73 games. I don't forsee the current roster construction, or state of the organization, producing a 90 loss team. The AL Central probably won't produce a 90 loss team this year, and if it does, I don't think it will be the Twins.

While not yet ready to make a deep playoff run in Paul Molitor's first season as skipper, the Twins have to be excited about the place they are in. There's more good than bad, and things are trending upwards.