Thanks to the being included among the host of writers in the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, I am granted the privilege of casting a Hall of Fame ballot. While the Baseball Writers Association of America has not yet decided to include bloggers (though the inclusion of MLB.com writers is a good start), the IBWAA provides a platform for voices to be heard.
In casting my Hall of Fame ballot this year, I feel good about the candidates I have chosen. There's probably some benefit in laying so ground rules though first. Starting with the IBWAA itself, please not that Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, and Tim Raines have already been voted in (hence the exclusion on the ballot). Also, unlike the stoneage practice of the BBWAA, the IBWAA ballot allows for up to 15 candidates to be considered.
Now, regarding my own personal ground rules. I think most things are self explanatory and the reasons for each candidate will be fledged out below. That said, when it comes to PEDs and steroids, they don't matter to me. I fully believe that baseball should celebrate its eras, and the steroid era was one welcomed by former Commissioner Selig. Retroactively punishing those who are more than worthy on whatever merits you'd like to consider is counterproductive, get them in. If you need more of an explanation there, read this.
Ok, now that we have that out of the way, here we go.
Barry Bonds: 164.4 fWAR
It's a no brainer. The all-time home run king (762) is arguably the best player to ever step on the field. A seven-time MVP, eight-time Gold Glove winner, and 14-time All Star, Bonds did it all.
Roger Clemens: 133.7 fWAR
The Rocket is one of the greatest pitchers to ever grace the mound. He's won seven Cy Young awards, claimed an MVP as a pitcher, and was invited to 11 All Star Games. His 4,672 strikeouts were buoyed by leading the big leagues five separate times.
Jim Edmonds: 64.5 fWAR
Edmonds inclusion on the ballot is almost solely defensively driven, although his .284/.376/.527 career slash line is nothing to scoff at. Edmonds collected eight Gold Gloves, and appeared in four All Star games. He also finished just seven home runs shy of the 400 mark.
Ken Griffey Jr.: 77.7 fWAR
What may be most impressive in Griffey's resume is that it's only about half of what he could have accomplished with a better health record. He won an MVP award, was a 13-time All Star, and picked up 10 Gold Gloves. The Kid slugged 630 homers and was a once in a generation type player.
Trevor Hoffman: 26.1 fWAR
At one point the All-Time saves leader, Hoffman's 601 career saves still rank second, trailing only Mariano Rivera. His career 2.87 ERA was is dazzling, and the seven-time All Star has a place in the Hall.
Edgar Martinez: 65.5 fWAR
The first true designated hitter to break into the Hall, Martinez picked up seven All Star appearances, and totaled five Silver Sluggers. Playing his entire 18 year career for the Mariners, Martinez also compiled 309 homers and drove in over 1,200 runs.
Fred McGriff: 56.9 fWAR
The Crime Dog spent many of his early season among MVP discussions. Despite never winning won, he finished fourth in 1993. He was elected to five All Star games and won three Silver Slugger awards. It's his 493 career home runs that get him over the top and into the Hall however.
Mike Mussina: 82.2 fWAR
Pitching his entire career in the AL East, Mussina was a household name for Yankees and Orioles fans. Making five All Star games, and winning seven Gold Gloves, Mussina has his fair share of awards. Totaling 270 wins, and just over 2,800 strikeouts, Mussina comes up just short of the guaranteed numbers.
Curt Schilling: 79.7 fWAR
Bloody sock nonsense aside, Schilling is a three time Cy Young runner-up, and six-time All Star. He struck out 3,116 batters in his career and owns a 3.46 ERA while totaling more than 200 wins. Three World Series rings, an MVP, and a 2.23 postseason ERA do him favors as well.
Lee Smith: 26.6 fWAR
When it comes to closers, before there was Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera, there was Lee Smith. His 478 saves still rank third among major league career numbers, and likely will stand there for quite some time. Smith was also a seven time All Star.
Alan Trammell: 63.7 fWAR
Trammell is undoubtedly one of the best shortstops to play the game. In his 20 years, he was a six-time All Star, picking up four Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger awards. His 20 years with the Detroit Tigers should have a place in the Hall.
Larry Walker: 68.7 fWAR
Although he played the field plenty, Walker also turned in a nice run spending time in both the infield and outfield. He was the 1997 NL MVP and made five All Star games. His glove netted him seven Gold Gloves and his bat produced three Silver Slugger awards. Walker finished his 17 seasons with 383 homers and drove in over 1,300 runs.
Wednesday, December 9, 2015
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
What If Sano In The Outfield Works?
For the next couple of months, Target Field will have plenty of snow in the outfield. When the whether turns warmer and the Twins return home from spring training in sunny Fort Myers, there may be a different Sano in the outfield. Puns aside, what happens when Miguel Sano in right field for the Twins works out wonderfully?
Let's clear a couple of things up here. First and foremost, it appears Trevor Plouffe is not going to be traded. Terry Ryan has been adamant that the Twins don't have nay intentions of moving their third basemen, and after the year he had last year, it's hard to argue with him. I have been a proponent of giving Plouffe an extension, and while that notion has cooled, he's a bat they probably can't replace.
Secondly, there's a distant possibility that the Opening Day outfield for Minnesota could rival some of the worst in major league history. In this scenario, Byron Buxton starts the year at Triple-A Rochester, meaning the three big league spots would be filled by Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario, and Sano. There's no denying this construction has the makings of a horribly bad defensive unit. Logically though, I think it's a pretty sound bet that Buxton begins the year where he belongs, at the highest level.
Now that we have some parameters set, it's time to get into it.
The outfield utilized most often by the Twins a season ago featured Torii Hunter in right field. For everything he was as a veteran leader and statue of nostalgia, he was virtually that in the outfield, a statue. Hunter gave the Twins a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark, as well as contributing just a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating).
Providing some background understanding when it comes to UZR, here is how it breaks down. UZR is essentially how outfielders are quantified from a complete defensive value. Calculated by looking at how many runs are saved by an outfielder's arm, turning double plays, someone's range, and how many errors are committed in relation to league average, it's quite a comprehensive number. Looking at Hunter's mark, he was essentially a wash when it came to overall value.
Knowing that Plouffe staying at third gives the Twins a positive outcome when considering replacements, it's time to look at the expectations for Sano and his new role. As things stand right now, it appears Ryan and Molitor are split on where Sano would best be suited. Molitor has noted that Sano may be best fit in left, as he sees the ball off the bat in that situation at third. Ryan however, thinks that the ground needing to be covered in left would be best suited for the likes of a more natural outfielder, meaning Sano would be destined for right.
Regardless of which position he plays, Sano has a few things going for him. Last season, had the Twins gone with Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Torii Hunter for the entirety of the season, their DRS total would have been something like 26. That mark would have been good enough for the 5th best outfield in the big leagues (trailing just Tampa Bay, Arizona, the Royals, and Mets). Also, Hunter didn't set the bar incredibly high.
There's little doubt that on the field, Hunter's presence was most felt in the batters box. Despite the mass amount of times he's going to strike out, there's little reason to believe Sano won't be a superior hitter to the 2015 version of Torii Hunter in nearly every way. Defensively, Sano possesses better speed and quickness, while owning a significantly superior arm.
That brings us to what Sano's biggest deficiency is going to be. After having played infield for the entirety of his career, the Twins are asking a hulking 260 pound 22 year-old to play a position completely foreign to him. The outfield is far more than just getting under pop flies, and while learning the best routes to balls is a feat all its own, there's also understanding situations, cutoffs, and each stadium's quirks. Looking at what lies ahead of him, it's the instinctual part of the game that will provide the biggest challenge.
At the end of the day, Miguel Sano in the outfield for the Twins is quite the proposition. It's a scary one to say the least, and one that Byron Buxton not being to his side gets worse. The silver lining though is that it could actually work, and if it does, the Twins are much better positioned than they are if they move Trevor Plouffe simply to accommodate having too many pieces.
Let's clear a couple of things up here. First and foremost, it appears Trevor Plouffe is not going to be traded. Terry Ryan has been adamant that the Twins don't have nay intentions of moving their third basemen, and after the year he had last year, it's hard to argue with him. I have been a proponent of giving Plouffe an extension, and while that notion has cooled, he's a bat they probably can't replace.
Secondly, there's a distant possibility that the Opening Day outfield for Minnesota could rival some of the worst in major league history. In this scenario, Byron Buxton starts the year at Triple-A Rochester, meaning the three big league spots would be filled by Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario, and Sano. There's no denying this construction has the makings of a horribly bad defensive unit. Logically though, I think it's a pretty sound bet that Buxton begins the year where he belongs, at the highest level.
Now that we have some parameters set, it's time to get into it.
The outfield utilized most often by the Twins a season ago featured Torii Hunter in right field. For everything he was as a veteran leader and statue of nostalgia, he was virtually that in the outfield, a statue. Hunter gave the Twins a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) mark, as well as contributing just a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating).
Providing some background understanding when it comes to UZR, here is how it breaks down. UZR is essentially how outfielders are quantified from a complete defensive value. Calculated by looking at how many runs are saved by an outfielder's arm, turning double plays, someone's range, and how many errors are committed in relation to league average, it's quite a comprehensive number. Looking at Hunter's mark, he was essentially a wash when it came to overall value.
Knowing that Plouffe staying at third gives the Twins a positive outcome when considering replacements, it's time to look at the expectations for Sano and his new role. As things stand right now, it appears Ryan and Molitor are split on where Sano would best be suited. Molitor has noted that Sano may be best fit in left, as he sees the ball off the bat in that situation at third. Ryan however, thinks that the ground needing to be covered in left would be best suited for the likes of a more natural outfielder, meaning Sano would be destined for right.
Regardless of which position he plays, Sano has a few things going for him. Last season, had the Twins gone with Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Torii Hunter for the entirety of the season, their DRS total would have been something like 26. That mark would have been good enough for the 5th best outfield in the big leagues (trailing just Tampa Bay, Arizona, the Royals, and Mets). Also, Hunter didn't set the bar incredibly high.
There's little doubt that on the field, Hunter's presence was most felt in the batters box. Despite the mass amount of times he's going to strike out, there's little reason to believe Sano won't be a superior hitter to the 2015 version of Torii Hunter in nearly every way. Defensively, Sano possesses better speed and quickness, while owning a significantly superior arm.
That brings us to what Sano's biggest deficiency is going to be. After having played infield for the entirety of his career, the Twins are asking a hulking 260 pound 22 year-old to play a position completely foreign to him. The outfield is far more than just getting under pop flies, and while learning the best routes to balls is a feat all its own, there's also understanding situations, cutoffs, and each stadium's quirks. Looking at what lies ahead of him, it's the instinctual part of the game that will provide the biggest challenge.
At the end of the day, Miguel Sano in the outfield for the Twins is quite the proposition. It's a scary one to say the least, and one that Byron Buxton not being to his side gets worse. The silver lining though is that it could actually work, and if it does, the Twins are much better positioned than they are if they move Trevor Plouffe simply to accommodate having too many pieces.
Who Is This James Shields?
For the better part of the last six months, the biggest pitching name the Minnesota Twins have been linked to is a starter from the San Diego Padres. After inking Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Ervin Santana to big contracts, it's James Shields that the club has been tied to recently. Looking to shed the contract of Nolasco in a swap for Shields, one has to question whether Shields is anything more than another bad contract and big name.
Looking at a potential trade during the 2015 deadline period, the Twins and Padres became linked to one another. San Diego is motivated to shed Shields' deal, as the Twins are with Nolasco. Ricky has thrived in the National League, and is a West Coast guy through and through. There seems to be definite reasons for Nolasco to be excited about the idea. What Shields would bring to the Twins should be cautioned however.
While he's known as Big Game James, it's worth noting Shields exorbitant payroll number first. He's owed $21 million in 2016 and can opt out of his deal the following season. If he does not, Shields would be paid $21 million in each 2017 and 2018, with a $16 million team option in 2019 (with a $2 million buyout). That equates to at least $65 million over the next four seasons (when Shields would be 37), with the potential to cost up to $79 million. By that representation, the $24 million Minnesota owes Nolasco over the next two season, seems like peanuts.
So why would the Twins and Terry Ryan believe this deal is of benefit to them?
As things stand currently, Ricky Nolasco has given the Twins just 35 starts over the past two seasons. He pitched in just nine games in 2015, and owns a 5.64 ERA in his time with the Twins. His 4.15 FIP suggests he's been better than that number suggests, but his 6.9 K/9 mark is below his career average, and pitching in the American League hasn't done him any favors. Though Nolasco did have a good stretch before getting injured yet again in 2015, he's been put on the backburner and doesn't appear to have a place in the 2016 rotation.
The interesting wrinkle to any potential trade is that James Shields doesn't seem to be a perfect fit for the Twins rotation either.
Last season in San Diego, Shields owned a 3.91 ERA that was hiding a career worst 4.45 FIP. His strikeout totals hit a career mark at 9.6 K/9, but so did his walks (3.6 BB/9). He led the big leagues in home runs surrendered, and while he did pitch 202.1 innings, it was his lowest total since his debut season in 2006.
That's the bad when it comes to Shields, but there's also some good to be had there. Just a season removed from pitching in the AL Central with the Royals, Shields owned a 3.18 ERA during his time in Kansas City. He struck out batters at a 7.4 K/9 clip and averaged 228 Ip per year. His 2.2 BB/9 mark was lower than his career average, and his 3.53 FIP was much better than what happened in San Diego.
In acquiring Shields, the Twins would need to make decisions on how they would like to attack the 2016 season. First of all, Shields is not exactly a ground ball pitcher. He gave up fly balls on 34% of the balls put in play against him a season ago. With Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler in the outfield that may not be a problem. Having Miguel Sano and Oswaldo Arcia out there could make it catastrophic.
Then there's the issue of rotation construction. Right now, the Twins should go with a starting five of Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, and Tommy Milone. That leaves Trevor May to be an asset in the bullpen, and Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, and Logan Darnell all as depth options. Shields would likely bump Milone from the group, but he isn't a guy that fits in the pen, and he's wasted down on the farm. Ideally, you want quality arms over quantity in depth, but this configuration would put Berrios in an uphill battle to push anyone out barring injury.
As things stand, the Winter Meetings are going to bring more clarity to the situation. Much like the trade deadline rumblings between the Twins and Padres, everything could go up in smoke. If the two teams are willing to swap bad contracts, that's one thing. If San Diego is asking for prospects in return, taking on that salary risk may make it less than worthwhile.
Shields is an upgrade over even a healthy Nolasco, but there's plenty of scary outcomes that lie ahead. If Minnesota loses prospects and Shields walks, it hurts. Should Shields fall off and play out the remaining dollars, that stings as well. Regardless, it's a tread with caution scenario that may have no win in sight.
Looking at a potential trade during the 2015 deadline period, the Twins and Padres became linked to one another. San Diego is motivated to shed Shields' deal, as the Twins are with Nolasco. Ricky has thrived in the National League, and is a West Coast guy through and through. There seems to be definite reasons for Nolasco to be excited about the idea. What Shields would bring to the Twins should be cautioned however.
While he's known as Big Game James, it's worth noting Shields exorbitant payroll number first. He's owed $21 million in 2016 and can opt out of his deal the following season. If he does not, Shields would be paid $21 million in each 2017 and 2018, with a $16 million team option in 2019 (with a $2 million buyout). That equates to at least $65 million over the next four seasons (when Shields would be 37), with the potential to cost up to $79 million. By that representation, the $24 million Minnesota owes Nolasco over the next two season, seems like peanuts.
So why would the Twins and Terry Ryan believe this deal is of benefit to them?
As things stand currently, Ricky Nolasco has given the Twins just 35 starts over the past two seasons. He pitched in just nine games in 2015, and owns a 5.64 ERA in his time with the Twins. His 4.15 FIP suggests he's been better than that number suggests, but his 6.9 K/9 mark is below his career average, and pitching in the American League hasn't done him any favors. Though Nolasco did have a good stretch before getting injured yet again in 2015, he's been put on the backburner and doesn't appear to have a place in the 2016 rotation.
The interesting wrinkle to any potential trade is that James Shields doesn't seem to be a perfect fit for the Twins rotation either.
Last season in San Diego, Shields owned a 3.91 ERA that was hiding a career worst 4.45 FIP. His strikeout totals hit a career mark at 9.6 K/9, but so did his walks (3.6 BB/9). He led the big leagues in home runs surrendered, and while he did pitch 202.1 innings, it was his lowest total since his debut season in 2006.
That's the bad when it comes to Shields, but there's also some good to be had there. Just a season removed from pitching in the AL Central with the Royals, Shields owned a 3.18 ERA during his time in Kansas City. He struck out batters at a 7.4 K/9 clip and averaged 228 Ip per year. His 2.2 BB/9 mark was lower than his career average, and his 3.53 FIP was much better than what happened in San Diego.
In acquiring Shields, the Twins would need to make decisions on how they would like to attack the 2016 season. First of all, Shields is not exactly a ground ball pitcher. He gave up fly balls on 34% of the balls put in play against him a season ago. With Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler in the outfield that may not be a problem. Having Miguel Sano and Oswaldo Arcia out there could make it catastrophic.
Then there's the issue of rotation construction. Right now, the Twins should go with a starting five of Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, and Tommy Milone. That leaves Trevor May to be an asset in the bullpen, and Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, and Logan Darnell all as depth options. Shields would likely bump Milone from the group, but he isn't a guy that fits in the pen, and he's wasted down on the farm. Ideally, you want quality arms over quantity in depth, but this configuration would put Berrios in an uphill battle to push anyone out barring injury.
As things stand, the Winter Meetings are going to bring more clarity to the situation. Much like the trade deadline rumblings between the Twins and Padres, everything could go up in smoke. If the two teams are willing to swap bad contracts, that's one thing. If San Diego is asking for prospects in return, taking on that salary risk may make it less than worthwhile.
Shields is an upgrade over even a healthy Nolasco, but there's plenty of scary outcomes that lie ahead. If Minnesota loses prospects and Shields walks, it hurts. Should Shields fall off and play out the remaining dollars, that stings as well. Regardless, it's a tread with caution scenario that may have no win in sight.
Monday, December 7, 2015
Twins Talking At Winter meetings
Monday marks a glorious day on the offseason calendar in regards to Major League Baseball. This season in Nashville, the Winter Meetings have officially commenced. With everybody who is anybody in the game of baseball in attendance, the Hot Stove is at its most scalding, and the acquisition market (both free agent and trade) is bubbling over. The question is, what do the Twins do this week?
After offering contracts to each of the six arbitration eligible players, the Twins 40 man roster currently stands at capacity. Don't let that deter focus however, the club has room to improve. With a handful of players that could still be removed from the 40 man, Minnesota has some definite targets this week.
Looking at the biggest area of need for Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor, relief pitching is a glaring weakness. Owning one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues a season ago, you can bet the Twins will be talking to many relievers this week. Off them, two names jump off the page.
First and foremost, Minnesota has been linked to 38 year-old Fernando Rodney. Playing for $7 million with the Mariners and Cubs in 2015, his price will be significantly lowered. Although his 14 games with the Cubs produced a 0.75 ERA, the collective whole was uninspiring. Rodney owned a 4.92 FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark, and a 4.74 ERA in 2015. He struck out just 8.3 per nine while walking 4.2 per nine. In total, it was his worst season since 2011 with the Angels. For all of his detractors, Rodney is a year removed from an All Star season, and Major League leading 48 save campaign in 2014. Minnesota could do worse, but should exercise caution here.
Another arm that the club has been linked to is that of 32 year-old Tony Sipp. A relative average arm for the majority of his career, Sipp put together a 1.99 ERA and 2.9# FIP across 60 games a season ago. His 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 would be at the top of the Twins pen. His FIP numbers over the last two seasons suggest 2015 wasn't a fluke, but he's probably not going to repeat the same level of success. Said to be looking for around $5-6 million per year, coming to Minnesota on a two or three year deal would make a lot of sense.
Then there's the trade market, and that's one that the Twins seem to have only one or two logical pieces for. While the farm system is overflowing with top-tier talent, Ryan doesn't seem interested in a package to acquire a high-end player at this point. What he could do is deal from a position of depth.
Trevor Plouffe still remains the most likely player to be traded out of Minnesota. Despite Ryan continuing to claim that Miguel Sano is destined for the outfield, moving Plouffe seems like a much better strategy. The Angels continue to be the team that makes the most sent, and relievers like Cam Bedrosian or Trevor Gott could probably be had in return. Plouffe is no doubt an asset to the Twins, but if they can get a solid relief arm in return, it may push the needle of the club as a whole.
Probably far from likely, but worth mentioning, is the possibility of moving Eddie Rosario. With Minnesota moving Aaron Hicks to the Yankees, it's likely that those around baseball see Rosario as having lesser value. He had a great rookie year, but his free-swinging tendencies provide a reason for caution moving forward. The Twins have Max Kepler on the way, and outfield options at multiple different levels. If they saw a fit in moving Rosario, there's little reason to believe he's untouchable.
Finally, there's always the revisiting of what was rumblings of mutual interest in the San Diego Padres assets. I still have a hard time seeing where Ricky Nolasco fits for the Twins, and a swap to San Diego in exchange for James Shields could make a lot of sense. Both are bad contracts, but Big Game James may be better suited to pitch in the American League than Nolasco has proven. San Diego is motivated to move him, but are the Twins willing to take the bait?
After a fast start to the offseason, I'd put the over/under for moves the Twins make this week at the Winter Meetings at a conservative 1.5. Right now, I'll take the over. I think the team speak probably comes to a head, and Plouffe is dealt. If he isn't this week, it may not happen at all. On top of that, I think Terry Ryan is at least aware he can't go into the season with the bullpen constructed as it currently is. Look for him to address that one way or another.
The baseball landscape is going to be shook up this week, and it's the Winter Meetings that we have to thank for it.
After offering contracts to each of the six arbitration eligible players, the Twins 40 man roster currently stands at capacity. Don't let that deter focus however, the club has room to improve. With a handful of players that could still be removed from the 40 man, Minnesota has some definite targets this week.
Looking at the biggest area of need for Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor, relief pitching is a glaring weakness. Owning one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues a season ago, you can bet the Twins will be talking to many relievers this week. Off them, two names jump off the page.
First and foremost, Minnesota has been linked to 38 year-old Fernando Rodney. Playing for $7 million with the Mariners and Cubs in 2015, his price will be significantly lowered. Although his 14 games with the Cubs produced a 0.75 ERA, the collective whole was uninspiring. Rodney owned a 4.92 FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark, and a 4.74 ERA in 2015. He struck out just 8.3 per nine while walking 4.2 per nine. In total, it was his worst season since 2011 with the Angels. For all of his detractors, Rodney is a year removed from an All Star season, and Major League leading 48 save campaign in 2014. Minnesota could do worse, but should exercise caution here.
Another arm that the club has been linked to is that of 32 year-old Tony Sipp. A relative average arm for the majority of his career, Sipp put together a 1.99 ERA and 2.9# FIP across 60 games a season ago. His 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 would be at the top of the Twins pen. His FIP numbers over the last two seasons suggest 2015 wasn't a fluke, but he's probably not going to repeat the same level of success. Said to be looking for around $5-6 million per year, coming to Minnesota on a two or three year deal would make a lot of sense.
Then there's the trade market, and that's one that the Twins seem to have only one or two logical pieces for. While the farm system is overflowing with top-tier talent, Ryan doesn't seem interested in a package to acquire a high-end player at this point. What he could do is deal from a position of depth.
Trevor Plouffe still remains the most likely player to be traded out of Minnesota. Despite Ryan continuing to claim that Miguel Sano is destined for the outfield, moving Plouffe seems like a much better strategy. The Angels continue to be the team that makes the most sent, and relievers like Cam Bedrosian or Trevor Gott could probably be had in return. Plouffe is no doubt an asset to the Twins, but if they can get a solid relief arm in return, it may push the needle of the club as a whole.
Probably far from likely, but worth mentioning, is the possibility of moving Eddie Rosario. With Minnesota moving Aaron Hicks to the Yankees, it's likely that those around baseball see Rosario as having lesser value. He had a great rookie year, but his free-swinging tendencies provide a reason for caution moving forward. The Twins have Max Kepler on the way, and outfield options at multiple different levels. If they saw a fit in moving Rosario, there's little reason to believe he's untouchable.
Finally, there's always the revisiting of what was rumblings of mutual interest in the San Diego Padres assets. I still have a hard time seeing where Ricky Nolasco fits for the Twins, and a swap to San Diego in exchange for James Shields could make a lot of sense. Both are bad contracts, but Big Game James may be better suited to pitch in the American League than Nolasco has proven. San Diego is motivated to move him, but are the Twins willing to take the bait?
After a fast start to the offseason, I'd put the over/under for moves the Twins make this week at the Winter Meetings at a conservative 1.5. Right now, I'll take the over. I think the team speak probably comes to a head, and Plouffe is dealt. If he isn't this week, it may not happen at all. On top of that, I think Terry Ryan is at least aware he can't go into the season with the bullpen constructed as it currently is. Look for him to address that one way or another.
The baseball landscape is going to be shook up this week, and it's the Winter Meetings that we have to thank for it.
Friday, December 4, 2015
Making The Twins Bullpen Great
A year ago, the state of the Minnesota Twins bullpen was far from a good place. Going into the season, the front office made sure to let media members know they were off base, and that the relief pitching was in a good place. As the season wore on, that ended up being quite off base, and remains a point of contention heading into 2016. Looking at the Twins current 40 man roster, what does the Twins best bullpen look like?
There's a couple of caveats here that need to be dealt with before diving in. Although the 40 man roster currently sits at full capacity, the Twins would have some serious questions to answer if moves were not still made. There's a couple of different players that could be removed, and there's definitely free agents that could help this team out.
In looking at the bullpen specifically, there are also a couple of contributors both within and outside of the organization that make sense. Guys like Jake Reed and Nick Burdi would make the Twins pen better when they arrive, but shouldn't be counted on from the get go. I'm not sold on the idea that Neal Cotts improves the Twins relief corps, but while still on the market, there's some mutual interest in making a return to Minnesota.
Focusing in on what's immediately available to Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan, the configuration should look something like this:
Ryan Pressly- RHP
The former Rule 5 pick has been a solid contributor for the Twins, unfortunately in 2015, he spent a majority of the year on the disabled list. When he did pitch however, he gave the Twins 27.2 innings and owned a 7.2 K/9 mark. Pressly posted a career best 2.84 FIP and tallied just a 2.93 ERA. His 3.9 BB/9 rate was the worst of his career, and the hope would be he could get back towards 2014's 2.5 BB/9 number. Pressly is far from a sure thing, and he's probably a placeholder for a guy like Reed or Burdi, but you could do a lot worse out of the gate.
Logan Darnell- LHP
The first lefty of the group, Darnell slides into what was once a role Brian Duensing held onto. More than just a lefty specialist, Darnell has the ability to eat innings and can do so at a competitive level. He ended 2015 working as a starter for Triple-Rochester. In his five starts, he posted a 0.83 ERA .185/.228/.210 slash line against, and a 7.83 K/9. He didn't appear for the Twins due to sickness following his September call, but expect him to get a crack out of Spring Training.
Michael Tonkin- RHP
Much like Darnell, Tonkin has not been given much extended run at the big league level despite minor league success. He was up and down too often a season ago, and never got settled at either level. For the Twins, he threw 23.1 innings and compiled a 3.47 ERA with a 7.3 K/9. At Rochester, Tonkin was virtually unhittable owning a 1.10 ERA, 10.1 K/9. and a 1.1 BB/9. Given an extended stay for the Twins, he could become a trustworthy back-end option with the ability to strike out big league sluggers.
Alex Meyer- RHP
After expecting to be a part of the 2015 season, Meyer had his struggles last year. Despite making his major league debut, it was short-lived. As the calendar turns, so does the year that was, and Meyer is poised for a breakout. Now almost certainly destined for the bullpen, Meyer showed some impressive stuff to close out 2015. In his final 10 games, Meyer threw 22.2 innings and owned a 0.79 ERA. Opposing batters slashed just .192/.293/.205 off of him while he owned a 22/10 K/BB ratio. Meyer's controlled improved at the end of the year, and the Twins pen would welcome his career 10.3 K/9 ratio. In the season ahead, it could be Meyer that ends up being the Twins most important rookie.
Trevor May- RHP
Despite what the Twins have said, and likely what May would prefer, starting may not be in the cards out of the gate in 2016. The problem isn't that May is a bad starter (he's actually very good), but instead that the Twins have so much depth there. In pitching May out of the pen, the 5th spot in the rotation can be given to the likes of Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, or even Jose Berrios. As a reliever in 2015, May pitched 34.1 innings owning a 3.15 ERA. His 10.3 K/9 was the best amongst Twins relievers, and his velocity rose as well. May has the makings of a very good pitcher wherever the Twins utilize him, but it would be in their best interest to make that in relief.
Kevin Jepsen- RHP
Tendered a new contract for the upcoming season, Jepsen is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and is set to become a free agent in 2017. After being acquired from the Rays last season, Jepsen was a vital part of the Twins down the stretch. He owned a 1.61 ERA across 28.0 IP. His 8.0 K/9 was plenty respectable, and his 0.893 WHIP allowed him to fill into the closer role admirably. Jepsen should again be counted on to be a key cog in the late innings, and could end up being one of the league's best setup men in the year ahead.
Glen Perkins- LHP
Joining Darnell as the only other lefty in the Twins pen, Perkins had a tale of two seasons in 2015. Prior to making the All Star Game, Perkins collected a Major League leading 28 saves while owning a 1.21 ERA in 37.1 innings of work. He compiled an 8.7 K/9 and .188/.217/.246 slash line against in that period. Then the wheels fell off. Through the rest of the year, Perkins owned a 7.32 ERA, allowed opposing hitters to slash .360/.394/.674 off of him, and had just one more save (4) than blown saves (3). He should be back to full health to start 2016, but he needs to put together a complete season again (something he hasn't done each of the last two years).
Looking at the grouping as a whole, the Twins have a very solid mix of options. Turning to youth with upside as well as rolling out proven veterans, this would seem to be the best constructed Opening Day bullpen that Minnesota has had in quite some time. While I expect there to be at least one move yet to be made, that should only further the overall ability of this group.
There's a couple of caveats here that need to be dealt with before diving in. Although the 40 man roster currently sits at full capacity, the Twins would have some serious questions to answer if moves were not still made. There's a couple of different players that could be removed, and there's definitely free agents that could help this team out.
In looking at the bullpen specifically, there are also a couple of contributors both within and outside of the organization that make sense. Guys like Jake Reed and Nick Burdi would make the Twins pen better when they arrive, but shouldn't be counted on from the get go. I'm not sold on the idea that Neal Cotts improves the Twins relief corps, but while still on the market, there's some mutual interest in making a return to Minnesota.
Focusing in on what's immediately available to Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan, the configuration should look something like this:
Ryan Pressly- RHP
The former Rule 5 pick has been a solid contributor for the Twins, unfortunately in 2015, he spent a majority of the year on the disabled list. When he did pitch however, he gave the Twins 27.2 innings and owned a 7.2 K/9 mark. Pressly posted a career best 2.84 FIP and tallied just a 2.93 ERA. His 3.9 BB/9 rate was the worst of his career, and the hope would be he could get back towards 2014's 2.5 BB/9 number. Pressly is far from a sure thing, and he's probably a placeholder for a guy like Reed or Burdi, but you could do a lot worse out of the gate.
Logan Darnell- LHP
The first lefty of the group, Darnell slides into what was once a role Brian Duensing held onto. More than just a lefty specialist, Darnell has the ability to eat innings and can do so at a competitive level. He ended 2015 working as a starter for Triple-Rochester. In his five starts, he posted a 0.83 ERA .185/.228/.210 slash line against, and a 7.83 K/9. He didn't appear for the Twins due to sickness following his September call, but expect him to get a crack out of Spring Training.
Michael Tonkin- RHP
Much like Darnell, Tonkin has not been given much extended run at the big league level despite minor league success. He was up and down too often a season ago, and never got settled at either level. For the Twins, he threw 23.1 innings and compiled a 3.47 ERA with a 7.3 K/9. At Rochester, Tonkin was virtually unhittable owning a 1.10 ERA, 10.1 K/9. and a 1.1 BB/9. Given an extended stay for the Twins, he could become a trustworthy back-end option with the ability to strike out big league sluggers.
Alex Meyer- RHP
After expecting to be a part of the 2015 season, Meyer had his struggles last year. Despite making his major league debut, it was short-lived. As the calendar turns, so does the year that was, and Meyer is poised for a breakout. Now almost certainly destined for the bullpen, Meyer showed some impressive stuff to close out 2015. In his final 10 games, Meyer threw 22.2 innings and owned a 0.79 ERA. Opposing batters slashed just .192/.293/.205 off of him while he owned a 22/10 K/BB ratio. Meyer's controlled improved at the end of the year, and the Twins pen would welcome his career 10.3 K/9 ratio. In the season ahead, it could be Meyer that ends up being the Twins most important rookie.
Trevor May- RHP
Despite what the Twins have said, and likely what May would prefer, starting may not be in the cards out of the gate in 2016. The problem isn't that May is a bad starter (he's actually very good), but instead that the Twins have so much depth there. In pitching May out of the pen, the 5th spot in the rotation can be given to the likes of Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, or even Jose Berrios. As a reliever in 2015, May pitched 34.1 innings owning a 3.15 ERA. His 10.3 K/9 was the best amongst Twins relievers, and his velocity rose as well. May has the makings of a very good pitcher wherever the Twins utilize him, but it would be in their best interest to make that in relief.
Kevin Jepsen- RHP
Tendered a new contract for the upcoming season, Jepsen is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and is set to become a free agent in 2017. After being acquired from the Rays last season, Jepsen was a vital part of the Twins down the stretch. He owned a 1.61 ERA across 28.0 IP. His 8.0 K/9 was plenty respectable, and his 0.893 WHIP allowed him to fill into the closer role admirably. Jepsen should again be counted on to be a key cog in the late innings, and could end up being one of the league's best setup men in the year ahead.
Glen Perkins- LHP
Joining Darnell as the only other lefty in the Twins pen, Perkins had a tale of two seasons in 2015. Prior to making the All Star Game, Perkins collected a Major League leading 28 saves while owning a 1.21 ERA in 37.1 innings of work. He compiled an 8.7 K/9 and .188/.217/.246 slash line against in that period. Then the wheels fell off. Through the rest of the year, Perkins owned a 7.32 ERA, allowed opposing hitters to slash .360/.394/.674 off of him, and had just one more save (4) than blown saves (3). He should be back to full health to start 2016, but he needs to put together a complete season again (something he hasn't done each of the last two years).
Looking at the grouping as a whole, the Twins have a very solid mix of options. Turning to youth with upside as well as rolling out proven veterans, this would seem to be the best constructed Opening Day bullpen that Minnesota has had in quite some time. While I expect there to be at least one move yet to be made, that should only further the overall ability of this group.
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Twins Tender Fien, And It's Not Fine
The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players has come and gone again. This time around, the Twins had six players to decide upon. Four of them were locks for new contracts: Tommy Milone, Kevin Jepsen, Eduardo Escobar, and Trevor Plouffe. Two however, were not. Casey Fien and Eduardo Nunez were both tendered contracts despite having their status somewhat up in the air.
Regarding Nunez, there's not much reason to show displeasure with the decision one way or another. Had he not been tendered, the Twins would have opened a roster spot for someone with a higher ceiling but the potential to struggle when called upon. In bringing Nunez back, Minnesota has a serviceable utility man that can do it all, but not at a relatively high level.
The bigger issue is with the decision to tender a contract to Casey Fien.
We have seen this before with the Twins, and most recently, with Brian Duensing. Duensing was a pitcher on the wrong side of the marginal line that Minnesota continued to go to arbitration with, and make a mainstay in the pen. Over the past two seasons Duensing owned just a 5.0 K/9 while walking batters at a 3.6 BB/9 clip. He owned a 3.76 ERA and while being capable of eating innings, wasn't particularly effective.
Fien is of a similar mold at this point in his career. Although Fien has never walked batters at the clip Duensing has (just a 1.7 BB/9 career number), he doesn't strike out many either. In 2015, Fien sat batters down at just 5.8 K/9 despite being a back end of the pen/high leverage arm. His 3.55 ERA was the best mark since 2012, but the now 32 year old owned a Twins career worst 3.45 FIP (fielding independent pitching).
As things stand for Fien, he's far from the pitcher that struck out 8.2 and 10.6 per nine in 2012 and 2013 respectively. His 2.06 2012 ERA is a distant memory, and expecting things to stay the same rather than get worse seems to be a long shot. After making $1.375 million a year ago, Fien will earn something like $2.5 million in 2016, a healthy raise.
Coming out of spring training, the Twins bullpen was a point of contention among media members and bloggers. The Twins front office took shots at those stories suggesting that the pen was indeed fine, and built in a way that made sense. As expected, the Twins pen went on to be one of the worst in the big leagues over the past season. The breakdown of Glen Perkins likely prompted the eventual failure to make the playoffs, and once again had the bullpen being a key area for improvement in the year ahead.
Although the Twins have been linked to relievers such as Joakim Soria, their 40 man roster is currently at its capacity. They will need to make a move should they wish to acquire the services of another player. It's not a massive undertaking by any means to do so, but Minnesota could have begun the improvement by trimming some of the proverbial fat in the case of Fien.
It would stand to reason that Minnesota would look to internal options at some point in the year ahead. Both Nick Burdi and Jake Reed seem close to ready on the farm, as well as potential fits such as Taylor Rogers. Regardless, if Minnesota is going to take the next step in the year ahead, continuing down a path of accepting mediocrity isn't a good route.
Neither decision, Nunez or Fien, is incredibly egregious, but they follow a decision making process that doesn't support incremental improvement. Minnesota is entering a phase in which the big league club is ready to win. At this point, they need to get out of their own way.
Regarding Nunez, there's not much reason to show displeasure with the decision one way or another. Had he not been tendered, the Twins would have opened a roster spot for someone with a higher ceiling but the potential to struggle when called upon. In bringing Nunez back, Minnesota has a serviceable utility man that can do it all, but not at a relatively high level.
The bigger issue is with the decision to tender a contract to Casey Fien.
We have seen this before with the Twins, and most recently, with Brian Duensing. Duensing was a pitcher on the wrong side of the marginal line that Minnesota continued to go to arbitration with, and make a mainstay in the pen. Over the past two seasons Duensing owned just a 5.0 K/9 while walking batters at a 3.6 BB/9 clip. He owned a 3.76 ERA and while being capable of eating innings, wasn't particularly effective.
Fien is of a similar mold at this point in his career. Although Fien has never walked batters at the clip Duensing has (just a 1.7 BB/9 career number), he doesn't strike out many either. In 2015, Fien sat batters down at just 5.8 K/9 despite being a back end of the pen/high leverage arm. His 3.55 ERA was the best mark since 2012, but the now 32 year old owned a Twins career worst 3.45 FIP (fielding independent pitching).
As things stand for Fien, he's far from the pitcher that struck out 8.2 and 10.6 per nine in 2012 and 2013 respectively. His 2.06 2012 ERA is a distant memory, and expecting things to stay the same rather than get worse seems to be a long shot. After making $1.375 million a year ago, Fien will earn something like $2.5 million in 2016, a healthy raise.
Coming out of spring training, the Twins bullpen was a point of contention among media members and bloggers. The Twins front office took shots at those stories suggesting that the pen was indeed fine, and built in a way that made sense. As expected, the Twins pen went on to be one of the worst in the big leagues over the past season. The breakdown of Glen Perkins likely prompted the eventual failure to make the playoffs, and once again had the bullpen being a key area for improvement in the year ahead.
Although the Twins have been linked to relievers such as Joakim Soria, their 40 man roster is currently at its capacity. They will need to make a move should they wish to acquire the services of another player. It's not a massive undertaking by any means to do so, but Minnesota could have begun the improvement by trimming some of the proverbial fat in the case of Fien.
It would stand to reason that Minnesota would look to internal options at some point in the year ahead. Both Nick Burdi and Jake Reed seem close to ready on the farm, as well as potential fits such as Taylor Rogers. Regardless, if Minnesota is going to take the next step in the year ahead, continuing down a path of accepting mediocrity isn't a good route.
Neither decision, Nunez or Fien, is incredibly egregious, but they follow a decision making process that doesn't support incremental improvement. Minnesota is entering a phase in which the big league club is ready to win. At this point, they need to get out of their own way.
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Inside The Twins: A National Perspective
More often than not, the Minnesota Twins don't take the stage front and center when the audience becomes national. As a small market club, the organization is more noticed for being the underdog story it was during the 2015 season. However, with the Twins signing of Byung Ho Park, this offseason has provided a handful of fireworks already.
Looking to get more of a national perspective on the state of the Twins, and where the belief the the organization is going, I had the privilege of speaking with Chris Cotillo. Cotillo covers Major League Baseball over at SB Nation's MLB Daily Dish. He's a Lead Writer there, and is often noticed breaking stories all around the league.
Gaining momentum as a national source after breaking the Ricky Nolasco signing, Cotillo has a special tie to the Twins. Here's how he see the organization now and going forward:
Off The Baggy: Last season, the Twins were one of the most surprising teams in all of baseball. With the production and season they had, what surprised you most about the team in Paul Molitor's first year?
Chris Cotillo: I think everyone who covers baseball was surprised to see them hang in until the end like they did. They really showed a great mix of veteran leadership (Hunter, Mauer) and young talent (Sano) and overcame significant adversity (Santana suspension) along the way.
CC: Buxton has taken a backseat to many other young stars around the game, but I think it's time for a breakout campaign from him. Center field is his now after the Twins traded Hicks, so I expect him to be an everyday star there who can show his five-tool abilities in a prolonged major-league stint. It's tough to predict stats for someone who does so many things well, but I have high expectations.
OTB: In somewhat of a surprising move, the Twins ended up winning the bid for Korean slugger, Byung Ho Park. What do you see Park contributing during his first year in the big leagues?
CC: Pretty much everyone was surprised by that move, and it will definitely set off a chain reaction of moving parts involving Mauer, Plouffe and Sano. Park will provide some pop in the middle of the order at a time where right-handed power is at a premium.
OTB: Looking at the free agent market, the Twins biggest offseason deficiencies were behind the plate and in the bullpen. They traded for John Ryan Murphy to fix their catching woes, but do you see them making any signings the rest of the way? If so, some names to watch?
CC: I could see a couple of bullpen additions for sure. There are tons of second-tier relievers out there behind O'Day-- Soria, Kelley, Lowe, Badenhop, Hunter, Madson among them.
OTB: Speaking of John Ryan Murphy, what is your take on the Aaron Hicks trade? Classic swap of two players better fit in their new situation, or did the Twins give up on Hicks just as he was about to get going?
CC: I really like the trade for both sides, it is the classic change-of-scenery deal. Murphy was obviously blocked by McCann in New York, and as I said before, it's Buxton time in Minnesota. Hicks may break out and be a long-term option for the Yankees in center, but Twins fans will have to look back and remember that this trade truly did make sense at the time.
OTB: Minnesota no doubt has playoff aspirations in 2016 after the season they just had. An increased level of talent should be on the 25 man throughout the season, but what one thing needs to improve for them to get back to the Postseason?
CC: For me, the rotation is a little bit scary. If they are going to be serious about a postseason run next season, I would like for them to trade from that deep farm system and get a bona fide ace.
While Cotillo is just one of the many national writers covering the game as a whole, the Twins have pushed the envelope and are begging to be noticed. After a strong 2015 and an aggressive start to the offseason, 2016 should continue that trend in a big way.
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