Ryan's Minor League Finds Highlight Biggest Asset

It's funny sometimes how others share a similar thought process to your own. That happened for me today as I prepared my coverage of the Twins for the week here at Off The Baggy. One topic I wanted to highlight and touch on was the ability Terry Ryan has shown to nab some very solid minor league signings heading into the season. MLB Trade Rumors released a piece with the best of the 2016 year, and of course, Minnesota had three entrants.

It's pretty easy to pick out that the Twins have gotten considerable run from Fernando Abad, Brandon Kintzler, and Robbie Grossman in 2016. Both Abad and Kintzler were non-roster guys that received spring training invites and minor league deals with the Twins. It was expected from the get go that Abad would make the team as the club's lefty reliever, and Minnesota thought his down 2015 was simply due to tipping his pitches.

After posting a 4.15 ERA with the Athletics a season ago, Abad has been incredible for the Twins. No longer tipping his pitches, he's made it through the first half with a 2.83 ERA and a 3.63 FIP. His 8.2 FIP is along the lines of his last three seasons, and he's danced around the a career worst 4.1 BB/9. Despite a recent rough stretch, Abad has been able to get both righties (.725 OPS) and lefties (.451 OPS) out. Obviously looking at those numbers, he's absolutely dominated left-handed batters, to the tune of a .163/.196/.256 slash line.

Despite being a long shot to make the 25 man roster, Kintzler obviously saw a pretty solid chance to make the Twins at some point after the club had such a poor pen a season ago. He owned a 3.52 ERA in 10 games with Triple-A Rochester prior to his promotion to the big league club. Since, he's owned a 2.42 ERA and walked next to no one (0.7 BB/9). His FIP leaves plenty to be desired, but he;s now working as the Twins (miscast) closer, having picked up his first five major league saves.

Rounding out the trio of guys touched on by MLB Trade Rumors was Robbie Grossman. Cast off by the Cleveland Indians, Ryan and the Twins saw an opportunity to solidify their revolving outfield. Grossman, just 26, had shown promise with the Astros but had never lived up to his billing. With the Twins, he's been an on base machine, and has slashed .289/.421/.465 through 48 games. He's already matched his career high in homer (6), and is just four doubles shy of tying his career high (14).

It's pretty safe to say that each of the three aforementioned guys have been among the Twins best players in 2016. This isn't something new though for a Terry Ryan club, and it's really not even isolated to this trio for the current year.

Buddy Boshers was another non roster guy that the Twins brought in out of Indy Ball for the 2016 season. He was a part of the roster squeeze a few days back, but he posted a 1.38 ERA across 13.0 IP and amassed a 9.7 K/9 with a 1.4 BB/9 in his first major league action since 2013.

A season ago, Minnesota could've used Mark Hamburger in their pen. He was lights out at Triple-A Rochester, posting a 3.44 ERA in 68.0 IP with an 8.3 K/9. Now pitching in Indy Ball with the St. Paul Saints and working as a starter, he's compiled a 2.59 ERA across 11 outings. In an uncertain outfield, Minnesota brought in Shane Robinson who turned out 3 defensive runs saved in just over 450 innings. Before that, it was signings like Blaine Boyer (2.49 ERA across 65.0 IP in 2015 for Twins), that showed Ryan's acumen.

At it's core, the highlighting of small splashes like those noted above are what Terry Ryan has done best. It follows the narrative of the Twins being a small market team, but is really indicative of a different story altogether. It's not that the Twins don't have the money to spend, but instead that when they do, Ryan generally misses the mark.

It's in deals like those handed out to Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes that Ryan looks to make the big wave and comes up short. Rather, when he uses his adept scouting knowledge and looks to squeeze what's left out of something lesser, the Twins GM generally finds his mark. Seeing the Twins turn out decent non-roster deals or small market contracts is far from a surprise, and once again should benefit them in 2016.

As the trade deadline approaches, Abad should be an easy piece to move. Kintzler is a usable option for a competing team, and Grossman's approach should be able to help another club unless the Twins see him as a fourth outfielder in the year ahead. What hitting on situations like these does is allow for a bad team, like the Twins have been, to try and stockpile assets moving forward. You won't get the cream of the crop, but your return on investment should be through the roof.

When push comes to shove at the end of the season, Minnesota would be best served to fire Terry Ryan. Don't let him walk away on his own terms, don't let him step down. Send the message that he has failed as General Manager, there's no soft way to put that. If the club has a problem cutting ties or wants to utilize his true talent though, Ryan serving in a scouting capacity of some sort would be far from a bad option. If there's something Ryan had proven over his tenure with the Twins, it's that he knows what he's looking for when scouting that diamond in the rough. He's just been miscast in executing it.

On The Twins Creativity, Or Lack Thereof

Taking cues from another Twitter conversation, seriously you're missing out if you aren't following along (find me at @tlschwerz), the creativity surrounding baseball moves has been a hot topic of late. When looking at how the Twins have handled player acquisition in recent years, there's something to be said about what has been done well, and well, what hasn't.

I first got to thinking about this after reading a very well thought out piece over on Twins Daily. In it, Bill Parker sparks the conversation in regards to what the Twins could have done differently during their years of losing. Payroll and debates about contracts have generally surrounded the mid-market Twins. It's been a point of contention for the fan base, and likely will continue to be. The biggest takeaway from the piece comes down to smart spending, and the lack thereof.

Parker discusses past free agent contracts, and what the Twins might have passed on during their seasons of 90 loss seasons. While Terry Ryan and the Twins took dart throws to the effect of a marginal amount of added victories, a big splash likely would not have saved those teams from themselves either. Unfortunately, it's that strategy that continues to be employed when it shouldn't be.

That brings us to Mike Bates' piece on Twins Daily. Bates discusses the Twins continuing to operate in a similar manner, despite the situation. While I can nitpick at pieces that I may or may not agree with throughout the article (we all know I think Sano can work in right field), there's a much larger point being hit on. Bates makes two points that should become a virtual backbone when discussing any roster configuration Minnesota employs.

He says, "The Twins have a profound lack of ambition in virtually everything they do." Furthering the point, he contends, "Instead of attempting to sign a single free agent starter with a higher upside at some point over the last three years (like a Jordan Zimmermann, a Jon Lester or a Johnny Cueto), and maybe a relative lottery ticket in Hughes, the Twins took small bites at the apple."

This leads us to the crux of this piece, and some examples of points in which the Twins seem to get it, and where they don't.

Over the past few years, the Twins have spent significant money on three starting pitchers.  Phil Hughes was given a three-year, $24 million deal in 2013 that was then extended another two seasons. Following that splash, Minnesota then inked Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million deal. Rounding out the group, the next offseason saw the Twins land Ervin Santana on a $55 million contract spanning four seasons.

Regardless of how the production has looked, only two of those moves ever made sense the day they were signed. With free agent contracts being earned off of past production, and some hope for an immediate return, pushing on upside is where a middle-of-the-road team like the Twins should be. Both Santana and Hughes had glints of upside.

Hughes owned an ERA in 2013 nearly three points lower on the road (3.88) than at Yankee Stadium (6.32). Getting out of the homer friendly park suggested he could be a significantly more effective pitcher in a different venue. That narrative immediately proved true in 2014, and despite 2015 regression, still had him post his third best ERA since 2011. For Santana, he was a guy that had a solid track record of an ERA somewhere in the middle-to-high three range. He was experienced in the AL, and posted one of his best seasons as a pro with the Royals just a year prior. Again, upside loomed large for the Twins.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Nolasco checked himself in. A career National League pitcher (spending eight year with the Marlins and briefly the Dodgers), a mediocre at best 4.37 ERA suggested who he was. His 3.76 FIP mark and 7.4 K/9 were more than likely only going to decrease in the less favorable, American League. Despite plenty of detractors, the Twins made him a $12 million man.

Similar misses have been made on much smaller scale minor league deals as well. It's more than fair to argue nearly any minor league deal has no downside for a major league club, the Twins don't always leave themselves much upside when looking to bring those types of veterans into the fold.

While all minor league transactions may be low risk, they are not created equal. Recently, I had a commenter suggest that dart throws are nothing more than a blind toss. It's unfair to assume however that a guy like Blaine Boyer (coming off a 2.93 FIP) wouldn't be a better use of a spring invite, than the walking corpse of Jason Kubel (who had been demoted to the minors hitting .216).

Ideally, a 25 man roster isn't going to be reliant upon a player looking to make the club following a minor league deal. Picking statistical inefficiencies to exploit no doubt helps to push contributions upward if you're going to take a flier however. There's belief behind Fernando Abad working, and Carlos Quentin is a worthy flier. If you had to bet on another Jason Kubel type though, you'd no doubt hope Ryan would aim higher.

Creativity is a very broad term, and employing it while 29 other terms are working towards the same goal is a tough ask. That said, looking for the Twins to target a more serious ceiling in free agency, rather than just checking a box is a safe place to start. Hoping for the dart throws to be aimed more towards the bullseye rather than just hitting the board is something else fair to ask for. No one expects Terry Ryan to reinvent the wheel, but having a more direct focus is something the Twins could afford to embrace.

The Twins Best Kept Secret

As of May 20, the Minnesota Twins have played 39 games and have compiled a 22-17 record. After being picked by many to finish last in the AL Central, and even lose 90 games for a 5th straight year by some, Minnesota has done nothing but surpass expectations. Sitting third in the AL Central, the Twins offense has once again been one of the best in the big leagues (currently 6th in runs scored). While starting pitching has been better than in recent years, it is one man in the bullpen that may be one of the team's best weapons.

Signed as a free agent after a decent year in San Diego, Blaine Boyer has come into the Twins pen and been nothing short of lights out. His story has been well documented, and his journey has taken him on the path less traveled. After being out of baseball for the 2012 and 2013 seasons, he resurfaced a year ago. Recommitted to the game, and with his family in tow, Boyer appeared poise to give the game what he had left.

Pitching in Petco Park a season ago to the tune of a 3.57 last season, it was somewhat uncertain what he would provide the Twins in the American League, despite the pitcher friendly Target Field. Terry Ryan decided to hand out low risk deals to both Boyer and former teammate Tim Stauffer. While neither looked good from the get go, it has been Boyer that has excelled as the season has worn on.

Casey Fien, the Twins setup man, hit the disabled list during April and the Twins needed someone to step up. First year manager put all of his chips behind Boyer, and neither has looked back. Since April 17, Boyer has pitched 17.2 scoreless innings. He's struck out just eight batters in the timeframe, but he's given up just nine hits and only three walks as well. Boyer has held opposing hitters to a .161/.200/.232 slash line and he's generated a 69% strike rate. On the season, Boyer's 2.18 ERA is amongst the Twins brightest relief marks, and he's become an incredible asset in the bullpen.

Earlier in the season, I kicked around the idea that Ryan brought in both Stauffer and Boyer with the idea of dealing them to a contender somewhere during the middle of the season. if he could get both players to reflect value, the Twins may benefit from the return of a mid-level prospect from a club looking for bullpen help. Obviously at this point, Stauffer is closer to being sent off of the roster, than he is being added to another team's. Boyer however, has proven to be an solid asset and the Twins have turned themselves into a legitimate contender.

Coming off of four straight 90 loss seasons, there's plenty of reason to be cautiously optimistic for the Twins prospectus going forward. After all, in 2014 Minnesota looked in good position in June, and even made a free agent signing in the form of Kendrys Morales. This team however seems to be cut from a different thread, and the trajectory appears to be stable and trending upward more than it isn't. As long as things continue their current trends, Boyer should expect to be pitching for a contender in 2015, but it will be the team that signed him in the offseason, not the one he is dealt to.

No doubt there has been some misses that Terry Ryan is responsible for when it comes to pitching, considering Blaine Boyer one of them is out of the question though. Boyer has been absolutely terrific for the Twins, and the man of faith with his family by his side, doesn't appear to be letting off the throttle any time soon.

Twins Must Measure The Leash

MLB.com

Heading into the 2015 Major League Baseball season, there's no doubt that the Twins took some significant chances. While deciding to play it safe, at some point, the organization must push themselves in a better direction. Now through the first handful of games, it's fair to question just how long the leash is for a couple of players that were questionable roster inclusions in the first place.

Whether on the mound, in the field, or at the plate, the Twins have failed to get production out of a handful of players. Having a minor league system filled with top prospects and capable placeholders, aging veterans was probably never the ideal way to go. Looking to right the ship before it sinks, Minnesota and Paul Molitor will need to start making some tough decisions, and quickly.

In trying to figure out what options the Twins have, let's first take a look at who's playing themselves out of being an option:

Blaine Boyer

First and foremost, Boyer's name comes up. He has all but shown why he has bounced around a handful of major league teams in his career (even retiring for a two-year stint). In his three relief appearances on the season, he has failed to leave the game without giving up a run. With an ERA north of 15.00 and owning only one strikeout while giving up 11 hits across 3.0 innings, things aren't good. As a reliever, names like Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, Caleb Thielbar, and Ryan Pressly all appear to be far superior options. This experiment shouldn't have too much time left on it.

Mike Pelfrey

Maybe somewhat of a surprise inclusion, there's no doubt in my mind Pelfrey belongs in this grouping. After being spotted a four run lead against the White Sox, a meltdown inning allowed the White Sox to pull even with the Twins. Pelfrey gave up two home runs, while striking out just two in five innings of work. If the outing against the White Sox was the floor, we may be having a different discussion. Unfortunately, I think we have already seen Pelfrey's best outing of the year. After fighting his way into the rotation, I'm not sure the Twins move him back to the bullpen. It may be time to ask him to go to Rochester, or be on his way.

Jordan Schafer

While still early in the year, there's no doubt Schafer has proved incapable of the one aspect of his game he was included for...defense. Taking poor routes in the outfield, not commanding his corner fielders, and struggling to make the routine play, he's all but worn out his welcome in the outfield. At the plate, he has provided some positives, but there's no doubt his at bat against Chicago's David Robertson sums up his ability. With the Twins needing a hit, coming to the plate offering a bunt attempt on the first pitch, swinging at a bouncing ball on the second, and being completely overmatched on the third was an ugly look. Schafer's game is mainly focused around bunting, and owning up to that being a more likely way to get on than swinging, provides little to no faith. Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario are both far superior options until Byron Buxton arrives.

Although the argument could be made for a few more players that are preventing a more talented or higher ceiling option from being included on this club, they haven't yet played themselves out of a role. If the Twins want to turn the page on what has been an ugly opening to the 2015 season, making roster moves to correct the three misses above should happen sooner rather than later. There's no doubt the organization has options throughout the farm system, but it's up to them whether or not they want to utilize them.

40 Man Shuffle Comes With Conflicting Thoughts

Today kicks off the final week of spring training for the Minnesota Twins. They will play the Boston Red Sox in a night game tonight as they kick off their last six games (five of which come against these Red Sox). With the team continuing to whittle down the roster towards the 25 man inclusions for Opening Day, the 40 man roster has been tweaked as well. Over the weekend, the Twins outrighted Stephen Pryor, and also removed Lester Oliveros from the 40 man roster. There's no two open spots, and they both will carry a different train of thought.

Of the players left in camp for the Twins, the two that appear poised to claim the 39th and 40th spots on the roster are Shane Robinson and Blaine Boyer. Both players were brought in over the offseason as non-roster invites with spring training shots to prove they belonged. For one, it would appear that proving it is exactly what he did. The other, it looks to be an inclusion by happenstance.

As noted over the weekend, Aaron Hicks was sent down to Triple-A Rochester. With the move, both Shane Robinson and Jordan Schafer will start the season as the Twins centerfielders. Rather than getting into the confusing decision again, it's best summed up by saying Robinson's inclusion appears to be a by-product of Hicks failing to meet expectations. A mediocre level major league talent at best, Robinson provides nothing at the plate, and a minimal defensive upgrade at best. Although jettisoning Pryor and Oliveros shouldn't move the needle much, Robinson didn't exactly lay claim to the role this spring.

On the other hand, Blaine Boyer appears to have earned himself a spot with the Twins, and Minnesota should be proud of that conclusion. After a strong year with the Padres a season ago, Boyer has been nothing short of lights out this spring. While not being a lefty could have worked against him, it appears the Twins will bring him north over the likes of Caleb Thielbar. Paul Molitor noted earlier in spring that he would like to have two southpaws in the pen, but it now would seem only Brian Duensing will make the roster. Minnesota decided to go to arbitration with Duensing, a move that probably could have been avoided, and thus leaves the younger Thielbar the odd man out.

For everything odd about including Robinson on the 40 man and active roster, the Twins have made the right move with Boyer. I'd argue they could have allowed Duensing to walk, and the decision would have been even better, but things should be just fine in their current construction. The Twins bullpen isn't going to be great in 2015, and the better choice would likely be to go with lower salaries and higher upsides; something Duensing checks off neither category. Although one move makes more sense than the other, the roster shuffle is finally starting to wrap up.

Considering we aren't talking about the Twins bringing Jason Kubel or Jason Bartlett along for the ride this season, we can already consider 2015 off to a better start. Boyer probably sticks with the Twins longer than Robinson does in 2015, but here's to hoping the Twins continue to make roster moves that help them compete in the upcoming season.

Two Twins Nearing A Crossroads

The Minnesota Twins have a week and a half of spring training action before they head north to face of with the Detroit Tigers to open the 2015 Major League Baseball season. For two players participating as non-roster invites, a decision time is certainly looming. Whether it's the Twins or each player choosing, the next steps in the careers of both Blaine Boyer and Shane Robinson are soon going to be figured out.

Both players were signed to minor league deals with spring training invites over the offseason. Robinson came to the Twins by way of the St. Louis Cardinals organization while Boyer moved on from the San Diego Padres. In the contracts of both players remains an opt-out date, which is set for March 30. As it stands, both are still in big league camp, but with Monday quickly approaching something has to give.

For Boyer, spring has been nothing short of impressive. Pitching in 9.2 innings for the Twins, he has accumulated just a 1.86 ERA giving up just five hits and two earned runs. More impressively, he has struck out five, while walking only one, and doing so allowing hitter to bat just .152 off of him. Boyer carries a salary under the seven-figure mark, and would be a high ceiling option. Pitching to the tune of a 3.57 ERA in 32 games with the Padres last season, Boyer could give the Twins an immediate boost in the bullpen.

At this point, the Twins likely have two undecided spots left in the bullpen. It would stand to reason that J.R. Graham appears poised to make the cut, leaving just one opening. If the Twins decide to send Trevor May back to Triple-A and keep Mike Pelfrey on the 25 man roster, it will undoubtedly be in the bullpen. The Twins would likely need to choose Boyer over Duensing (hint: they should), but that doesn't appear to be something that will take place. After going to arbitration with Duensing again this year, the Twins will likely ride out the connection they currently have with the lefty.

To say I have any idea what Boyer ends up doing couldn't be further from the truth. There is the potential that both the club and the former Padres pitcher will agree to push out the opt-out date a bit further. Right now though, I think Boyer should bank on his foundation of work, and that would be unfortunate for the Twins. He's proven his stuff is more than capable of getting major league hitters out, and he's coming off of a good year. He should be able to help someone out in the bullpen at the major league level this season.

Update: On Saturday morning, the Twins sent Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario to Triple-A Rochester. This puts both Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson in motion for the centerfield job. As seen here, I'm not sure who missed more on the decision. Me for projecting wrong or the Twins for going through with it.

When the Twins went after Robinson, the train of though was outfield depth first and foremost. Knowing that Aaron Hicks remained a wildcard in centerfield, and Jordan Schafer isn't an enticing backup option, the Twins needed to bring in some competition. Hitting .276/.364/.379 across 29 at bats this spring, Robinson has been markedly better than his career numbers (.231/.303/.308). Last season for the Cardinals, Robinson played in just 47 games and failed to break the .150 mark at the plate. Needing to break the roster defensively, Robinson was always facing an uphill battle.

Looking at the way things stand now, there's no doubt that Robinson is the odd man out. I feel confident in saying there is next to zero shot he makes the Opening Day roster. The Twins aren't going to give up on Hicks without making him prove his 2014 minor league season wasn't a fluke. Behind him, Schafer makes more sense due to the speed he brings to the game. Ideally, the Twins would hope that Hicks could show enough ability to be the fourth outfielder, while stepping aside for Eddie Rosario to take over. No matter what way you cut it however, Robinson would be the fourth best option in centerfield, and that doesn't bode well for him.

Because the Twins have some outfield uncertainty, there's probably something to gain for Robinson if he sticks in the organization. Like Boyer, he could renegotiate his opt-out date and even decide to head to Triple-A Rochester. The Twins could use him as depth, even though there may not be much of a ceiling for him to expose here. Unlike Boyer, Robinson would likely struggle somewhat to find a new home, and may be needing to settle for time on the farm no matter where he goes. My guess is that he spends another week with the big league club before being sent to Triple-A and accepting the role.

When Monday roles around, things will become a lot more clear for both players as well as the Twins. Of the two, it's Boyer that belongs on the roster, but Minnesota may not be ready to find a place for him. At any rate, things should be sorted out soon.

Familiar Faces Fill Out Twins Bullpen

Twins reliever Glen Perkins throws during spring training at Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers, Fla. (Pioneer Press: Ben Garvin)

Heading into the 2015 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a place they have not experienced for the past four seasons. With true positional battles taking place, there is a solid amount of depth and options for new manager Paul Molitor to plug in on Opening Day. While we have heard plenty about the shortstop, outfield, and backup catcher roles, some of the largest competition may come in the bullpen. With seven spots likely up for grabs, who fills them out still remains somewhat up in the air.

There is a decent amount of certainty when it comes to a few key members of the bullpen, but after them, the ambiguity looms large. Looking at the possible candidates and their probability of breaking camp with the Twins, I do my best to sort out what I expect to come of the Twins bullpen.

In no particular order, let's get started:

A.J. Achter- 5 percent
Achter got a cup of coffee a season ago with the Twins. Appearing in seven games at the end of the year. He pitched in 11 innings and gave up four runs; probably working against him the most was the .304 average he allowed to opposing hitters. Being right-handed, and failing to separate greatly from much of the competition, he faces an uphill battle to travel north.

Logan Darnell- 15 percent
Like Achter, Darnell surfaced in the big leagues during the 2014 season. Pitching four games as a starter and three more in relief, he threw 24 big league innings. Darnell coughed up 19 earned runs and five home runs in that time, while allowing opposing hitters to bat .307 off of him. In his favor is that he is a left-handed pitcher and could provide extra innings of long relief out of the bullpen.

Brian Duensing- 99 percent
The Twins took Duensing to arbitration this offseason, and settled on another raise for their left-handed reliever. Having operated solely as a reliever for the second consecutive season in 2014, Duensing threw 54.1 innings and owned a 3.31 ERA (the second best mark of his career). As Brandon Warne of Cold Omaha pointed out, Duensing is more of a lock than he should be, and especially considering a Twins offseason acquisition.

Casey Fien- 100 percent
Not much to explain here, Fien is locked in as Glen Perkins setup man. He brings a welcomed bravado to the club, and looked solid in the role a season ago. Nothing should change this time around.

J.R. Graham- 20 percent
Graham was a Rule 5 Draft pick out of the Atlanta Braves system. A former fireballer, injuries have somewhat stalled his career. The Twins have carried Rule 5 guys previously (Ryan Pressly) but Graham is certainly fighting against the multitude of options Minnesota has.

Lester Oliveros- 3 percent
The Twins brought Oliveros back to the big leagues last season for seven games. It was the his first exposure since a one game stint in 2012. A 7.11 ERA and two home runs over just 6.1 innings wasn't the output he was hoping for by any means. Oliveros has yet to appear in a spring training contest for the Twins in 2015.

Glen Perkins- 100 percent
The Twins made sure Perkins is here to stay with a new contract for their All Star closer. He's dealt with some injury issues early in spring training, and while it's not a great development, it shouldn't be anything that jeopardizes his regular season either. Expect Perkins to return to form as one of the best in the American League this season.

Ryan Pressly- 10 percent
Pressly pitched in 25 games for the Twins last season. Owning a 2.86 ERA he was actually better than should have been assumed seeing that he allowed hitters a .278 average off of him. Spring training hasn't been kind to him early (3 ER and 6 hits in 2.0 IP), and he faces an uphill battle to turn it around.

Stephen Pryor- 10 percent
The Twins return for Kendrys Morales a season ago, Pryor has yet to pitch in the big leagues for the Twins. He's gotten into two games thus far in spring training, and while he can probably get it done at the major league level, there's plenty of capable arms ahead of him as well.

Tim Stauffer- 75 percent
Thus far in spring training, Stauffer has gotten hit relatively hard. Brought in on a free agent deal after a decent season with the Padres, the Twins expect Stauffer to fill their Anthony Swarzak role. His spring may shorten his leash, but it's doubtful that it knocks him out of the pen on Opening Day.

Caleb Thielbar- 60 percent
A year ago, Thielbar regressed in the Twins bullpen, but his 2013 season still should be looked upon as a reason for him to stick. He gives the Twins a second lefty option and is someone that can pitch out of more than just a situational role.

Blaine Boyer- 49 percent
Boyer's inclusion probably depends on a few breaks going his way. Signing with the Twins after a good return in San Diego, Boyer is another left-handed arm the Twins could use. I don't see them bringing three lefties into the fold however.

Aaron Thompson- 6 percent
Probably the lone reason Thompson has an edge on both Achter and Oliveros is due to him being a lefty. The Twins have noted they would like to carry at least two. Thompson would need to be lights out the rest of spring to make an impact.

Michael Tonkin- 40 percent
A year ago, Tonkin broke into the big league club, and he has mentioned he wants to stick. A hard throwing reliever, Tonkin could prove valuable at the back end of the pen. Depending on how Molitor handles whomever misses out on the 5th rotation spot, Tonkin could squeak in.

Jason Wheeler- 5 percent
Of the left-handed options, Wheeler may be the least inspiring. In big league camp, he is getting his shot to impress. Minnesota will have options if they need to call up a lefty out of the pen later in the season, but I don't see Wheeler making an impact on Opening Day.

Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Tommy Milone, and Mike Pelfrey- 80 percent
The glut of starters competing for the 5th and final rotation spot has been well documented. At this point, Milone looks to have the upper hand. There's probably reason to suggest the role should go to Meyer (and I did so yesterday), regardless, I think at least one of those beat out ends up in the bullpen.