Getting Late Early in Relief for Twins

The Minnesota Twins just finished up a four game set with the Los Angeles Angels. By the time Fernando Romero was done with his five innings against Shohei Ohtani, Paul Molitor was tasked with utilizing a bullpen coming off an extra inning affair and quite a bit of recent work. What the Minnesota skipper was also having to deal with, was being a man short from beyond the outfield fence. Phil Hughes was available, but he isn't an option either.

Hughes was jettisoned to the Twins bullpen after flopping in his first two starts of the year. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine likely saw this outcome coming given their decision to start Hughes on the DL out of spring training due to an "injury." Out of the pen, Hughes has been used in only the lowest of leverage situations, and has essentially taken on the role vacated by Tyler Kinley. Unlike the Rule 5 draft pick however, Hughes hums a fastball in at just 91 mph and doesn't really make anyone miss.

The obvious elephant in the room here, is the $26.4 million owed to the former New York Yankees pitcher through 2019. Terry Ryan made an unwise decision in extending Hughes less than a third of the way into his first deal with the Twins. Rather than seeing more of a sample size, the veteran pitcher was given a guarantee after posting an MLB record breaking season in 2014. On the flip side, it'll be on both Falvey and Levine to come to grips with that number being a sunk cost.

Right now, Paul Molitor and Garvin Alston are playing with a deck a few cards shy of a full set. The Twins have employed eight relievers often in the past few years, and that only highlights the importance placed on having quality options available out of the pen. As of May 14th, there's really only seven usable arms at Molitor's disposal.

When going the extra reliever route, a team is suggesting that they're comfortable with a three-man bench. Minnesota has a trio that includes Bobby Wilson, Gregorio Petit, and Robbie Grossman. Outside of Grossman's bat, that group is a combination of journeyman that have more of a scrapiness to them than any distinct characteristics. In short, the lack of another option is a trickle down effect from what is currently taking place in relief.

As things stand now, the Twins are leaving themselves short in the bullpen as well as off the bench, solely because a logical decision on Phil Hughes is being delayed.

At Triple-A, Alan Busenitz is making the choices at the big league level look even more interesting. The owned of a 95 mph fastball and strikeout stuff, currently owns a 1.13 ERA and a 13/2 K/BB ratio across 8.0 IP. A year ago in 35.1 IP, Busenitz posted a 1.78 ERA and 9.9 K/9 for the Rochester Red Wings.

Having made four appearances thus far with the big club in 2018, Busenitz has numbers that need improvement. Allowing three runs in just 4.0 IP, his 6.75 ERA isn't pretty. That small sample size doesn't overshadow the 1.99 ERA he posted in 31.2 IP a season ago however. In fact, I think the realistic performance lies somewhere in between. Busenitz is a better strikeout pitcher than the 6.5 K/9 he tallied in 2017, but he's probably not quite the guy who totaled just a 1.99 ERA either.

At any rate, having Busenitz at his disposal would give Paul Molitor another necessary option out of the pen. Rather than subjecting Zach Duke to overuse against righties, or taxing arms like Taylor Rogers and Trevor Hildenberger, Busenitz could be worked into the mix and provide yet another quality option in a relief corps that's been significantly revamped from a year ago.

Really what it comes down to is that Phil Hughes is the linchpin holding up multiple more adequate roster scenarios for the Twins. It's a tough pill to swallow when you're talking about that kind of money. Deciding to DFA Hughes isn't admitting defeat however. The reality is that he was trending downwards prior to his TOS surgery, and the list of successful recoveries is not a long one. It's time to thank him for what he's done, and push the water level of the club a bit higher.

Minnesota Making Room On The Mound

As spring training looms, Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins will soon have to make some tough decisions. While the 25 man roster as a whole must be settled upon, the Twins will need to decide how they'll round out the rotation. It's obvious another Jose Berrios or Ervin Santana type impact arm is needed, but on the back end, the group has plenty of suitors. For two players though, the future is all but certain.

First, there's 31 year-old Phil Hughes. Still owed $26.4 million through 2019, the premature extension Terry Ryan handed out continues to be the fit that keeps on giving. Hughes gave Minnesota just 53.2 IP a season ago, and that was in follow up to a 2016 that saw him turn in just 59.0 IP. Despite being a true Cy Young candidate in 2014, his first year with Minnesota, it's been a deep dive off a cliff since.

The past two seasons, Hughes has dealt with a myriad of injuries. From breaking a bone in his leg, to undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery, health has not been something he can lay claim to. It's the TOS procedure that remains relatively difficult to come back from, and the list of those who've successfully recovered is not a long one (Matt Harvey of the Mets finds himself on the wrong side of the discussion as well). After turning in a 5.87 ERA and allowing opposing hitters a .907 OPS off of him, Hughes was shut down and again went searching for answers.

On August 10, Hughes underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome revision surgery, in hopes it would help set him up for a cleaner bill of health in the year ahead. Now fully healed, the question turns to what he can give Minnesota. The past two seasons, he's allowed hard contact roughly 40% of the time. When he was going well in 2014, that number was 32%, and it's just 38.9% over the course of his career. Maybe most alarming however is the significant dip in velocity. After throwing his fastball at 93 mph from 2009-2014, he's lost at least 3 mph over the past two seasons. Such a significant decrease can obviously cause issues, and could end up contributing to a career ending decline.

If he's healthy, the Twins would be getting a command artist back in the fold. Hughes at his best is a plenty serviceable back end option, and would be more than capable of being entrusted to take the ball every 5th day. Although the upside isn't there, and he's probably past his prime, a staff could do much worse than a solid Phil Hughes. How long of a leash he has to prove that's where he's at, or if there is truly a clean bill of health all remain fair questions. With north of $20 million left on his deal, it's hard to see the Twins cutting bait, but I can't imagine the current structure allowing for ineffectiveness either.

On the opposite end of the return spectrum is one-time top prospect Trevor May. Making his return from Tommy John surgery, May likely won't be ready on Opening Day, but also shouldn't be far off. Prior to the injury, it appeared May was going to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation. Despite being used solely as a reliever in 2016, the desire to get more use out of him seemed apparent.

As a reliever, May posted an elite 12.7 K/9 and a manageable 3.6 BB/9. His 1.5 HR/9 led to an inflated ERA, but the 3.80 FIP suggests there was quality beyond the surface. While May in the bullpen could truly be an asset to Minnesota, there's also the question as to whether or not his back could put up with the workload. Never working solely as a reliever, injuries flared as he was called upon to pitch more often, and ready himself at a significantly quicker pace.

Prior to his injury, May appeared to be more than a soft tossing arm deployed out of the Twins stable. As a starter, he averaged right around 94 mph on his fastball, and bumped that up to 95 mph coming out of the pen. While not triple digits, sustained velocity in the mid 90's is something that Minnesota would no doubt welcome. It's fair to wonder whether or not the surgery will sap some of the electricity, but track records for Tommy John patients have greatly improved over time.

In both cases, Minnesota will have some difficult decisions to make. There's a much better case to be made for May being inserted into the rotation if healthy. His long term value remains of benefit to the club, and at 28, his prime still should be in front of him. Outside of monetary obligations it's hard to say the same for Hughes. Unless he's a lights out 2014 version of himself, there's plenty of reason for skepticism when it comes to future contributions.

At any rate, the Twins have two starters locked in, and a third (Kyle Gibson) pretty close to being written in ink as well. The necessary addition of a top level arm remains a must, but how the 5th and final spot shakes out is anyones guess. Both Hughes and May will be in the conversation, but how will the production from both speak?

Phil Hughes Embracing New Style

Last season was anything but glorious for the Minnesota Twins' Phil Hughes. He broken a bone on a comebacker, and ultimately watched his season end after just 59.0 IP. While shelved, he had a rib removed (undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery), and the 2016 campaign turned into a giant recovery stint. Fast forward a year and the Twins hurler is learning to embrace his new reality.

It's fair to suggest that Hughes has never been much of a burner. Even at his best with the Twins in 2014, he threw just an average of 92 mph on his fastball. What he always has been in Minnesota however, is a guy that issues very few free passes, and watches his strikeouts play off of that notion. After setting an all-time major league record in K/BB rate during the 2014 season, Hughes has watched his effectiveness slip. Regardless of whether or not the injuries mounted last year, it's fair to wonder if he wouldn't need to adapt.

This season though, it's been all about adaptation for Hughes. Working as the Twins number three starter out of the gate, he had some pressure lifted off of him with how good both Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago have been. Despite an ugly start against the Indians, it's hard to argue that Hughes has been anything but acceptable.

Through his first six turns in the rotation, Hughes owns a 4.32 ERA that's backed by a 4.35 FIP (his best mark since 2014). His 5.7 K/9 is also the best total since 2014, and he's issuing less free passes at just 1.6 BB/9. Home runs continue to be a bugaboo for him, but that's virtually always been the case, and something you almost have to live with at this point.

What is most interesting about Hughes this season, is how he is going about getting results. Both his changeup and knuckle curve have seen a slight dip in velocity, but he's actually utilizing them quite often. Thus far, Hughes has thrown fastballs only 22.5% of the time (per Fangraphs) while pushing knuckle curves across one-fifth of the time (20.6%) and using changeups 18.8% of the time.

In breaking down his offerings, it's the changeup number that jumps off the page. At 18.8% of the time, Hughes is relying on his changeup nearly 14% more often than his career average of 4.9%. Given the roughly 10 mph dip from his fastball, it keeps hitters out front and off of his pitches. It also shouldn't go unsaid that pitching coach Neil Allen, is a noted chanegup guru, and that has likely played a significant role here.

Hughes is allowing a higher hard hit rate (43.6% in 2017 up from 37.7% and 31.2% the past two years), but he's giving up less line drives and his 9.3% HR/FB ratio is actually the lowest it's been since bottoming out at 6.2% in 2014. He's forcing hitters to stay off of his fastball, and deal with the offspeed stuff, which in turn, has shifted thinking about what type of pitcher he is.

The level of confidence and trust in both the knuckle curve and changeup also flesh out very high in situations where he's ahead. When batters are facing 0-1,0-2, or 1-2 counts, they are seeing nearly a 50% mix of chanegups and knuckle curves. Conversely, when Hughes finds himself down in the count, he's going with that same mix, throwing changeups and knuckle curves 47.2% of the time.

Whether a by-product of the surgery, or a simple adjustment to style, Hughes has transformed himself from a two-seam/cutter guy, into a changeup/knuckle curve thrower. He's finessing players out, and feels ok about balls being hit in the air, as the Twins now employ one of the best outfield defenses in all of baseball.

It should be noted that Father Time is undefeated, and that regardless of the amount of procedures a body undergoes, a level of adaptation is required. When a veteran continues to roll towards the latter half of their career, there will be a point that a renaissance is needed. In changing your philosophy, or finding something else that works, a new level of effectiveness can be achieved. It appears Phil Hughes has embraced this head on, and right now, the results are rewarding him for it.

Less Body, More Dip. Hughes In Trouble?

Over the offseason, Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes rehabbed from his recent Thoracic Outlet surgery. After getting hit on the kneecap by a comebacker, it seemed Hughes was going to use the months ahead as a time to get all phases of his body right. Now looking at early returns in the 2017 season, it's fair to wonder if "right" is something that will ever completely exist again.

Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is a condition that causes symptoms such as numbness in extremities, as well as shoulder and neck pain. The cause is from nerves or blood vessels being strained in a person's chest, and the remedy involves a surgery the removes a rib from the body. In baseball, it's a surgery that has become more prevalent, but one that has had mixed results, and leads to a good deal of uncertainty.

For much of 2016, Phil Hughes seemed to be laboring, and at times was even called into question as to why he was pitching at all. There were conflicting reports, and eventually he found himself shelved. His season ended after suffering a left knee fracture endured on a comebacker from J.T. Realmuto. This also served as a time in which he could undergo the TOS surgery, and rehab both injuries to get ready for 2017.

At points throughout 2016, Hughes had his velocity questioned, and the results showed there was cause for concern. For a pitcher that hasn't sniffed a double digit strikeout rate since being used as a reliever with the Yankees during 2009, the room for error has always been relatively small. In Hughes' corner, is the reality that with the Twins, he's issued very few free passes (setting an MLB all time record in K/BB during 2013). As things stand now however, hitters seem to be teeing off on what Hughes puts over, and they're having a good amount of success.

Starting with velocity, Hughes sees his biggest red flag. When at his best with Minnesota in 2013, he posted an average of 92 mph on his fastball. This season, through three starts, he's averaging under 90 mph on his fastball, with each of his other pitches following suit (in fact, he's lost 3 mph on his changeup). The combined result has equated to Hughes giving up hard hit contact 51.9% of the time (up from 37.7% in 2016, and 30.2% in his career).

It seems Hughes is looking for answers as well. In his second start of the season, he threw 25 changeups to opposing batters. For a guy that used the pitch just 3.8% of the time a season ago, his usage rate has skyrocketed to 21.7% this year. Then however, when facing the Indians on April 18, Hughes threw his chanegup just five times in 73 pitches, and was tagged with 6 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits over just 3.1 IP.

Over the entirety of his career, Hughes has always been prone to the long fly. In 2015, his 29 homers surrendered led the league, and giving up 11 in 12 games prior to shutting down last season wasn't a great path either. The trend has continued in 2017, as he's allowed three longballs in three starts. What's worse is that along with the lack of velocity, or trust in his offerings, is that Hughes' location hasn't been ideal either. He's given up homers on absolute cookies.

What it all boils down to is uncertain at this point, but there's some pretty concerning trends here. The lack of velocity is a real issue, and one that won't correct itself over time. Whether he moves to the pen or not, Hughes' effectiveness is going to be sapped by his declining pitch speed. On top of that, he seems to be guessing as to which pitch he trusts most, and that could leave him in a spot with nothing to rely on.

When the dust settles, Phil Hughes is in a place where a guy that doesn't strike many out doesn't want to be. The Twins hurler is giving up a ton of hard contact, keeping lots of balls in the zone, and doesn't have a way to get a pitch by an opposing hitter. With two years and over $26 million left on his contract, the Twins need some sort of revolution from Phil, and it's a serious predicament as to whether or not it will happen.

How To Stop The May Fallout

Having spent time at spring training down in Fort Myers last week, the Twins came off with a process that looked poised to process better results. 2017 has been looking like a season in which Minnesota could turn the page from an ugly 103 loss a season ago. Then, upon returning to Minnesota, the news that Trevor May's season would now be over had hit. What happens now?

After looking back through some of my tweets from Minnesota's exhibition against Team USA, it seems I had been aware of what really was unknown. Sitting around 95 mph on his fastball at the start of the game, May's velocity dipped to 91-92 mph in short order. It was later revealed that in a pitch midway through his outing, he blew out his UCL. Now destined for Tommy John surgery, the Twins must pick up the pieces and ask themselves what's next.

I had Trevor May penciled in as the team's fifth starter. He wasn't going back to the bullpen with his back issues, and he offered legitimate upside in the rotation. While that now isn't going to happen, the list of candidates to take his place is long. Everyone from Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Justin Haley to Ryan Vogelsong, Tyler Duffey, and Nick Tepesch should be in play. For Molitor's squad though, I think the narrative is less about the next man up than it is the men already involved.

There has long been little doubt that Phil Hughes, Hector Santiago, or Kyle Gibson would be in the Twins Opening Day rotation. Each of those three was a lock, and they'd be joining Opening Day starter Ervin Santana. What becomes integral now is that the trio elevate themselves to pick up the slack.

First and foremost, Hughes has to show his injury is behind him. Over the course of the spring, a lot had been made of Hughes' velocity, and for good reason. After undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery, he's seen a visible decline in the speed of his fastball. For a guy that doesn't blow batters away, losing any competitive advantage isn't ideal.

Last season, Hughes turned in just 59 innings before ending his season. He had already given up 11 homers, after surrendering a league worst 29 the season before, and his walk rate had doubled (but still respectable at 2.0 BB/9). Hughes hasn't given Minnesota more than 5.4 K/9 since his incredibly debut season, and he'll need to be better than his low water mark this time around. Minnesota isn't going to bank on him to be that Cy Young type pitcher he was in 2014, but he must have an ERA right under 4.00 and strike out at least six per nine. It's a big ask for a guy with a lot of question marks, but the Twins can't have him do less now.

That brings us to Hector Santiago, who's done little to put himself in good graces since getting to Minnesota. The Twins are paying him virtually the same $12 million that Ricky Nolasco took up, and his numbers haven't been heartwarming. After coming over from Los Angeles last season, Santiago owned a 5.58 ERA and gave up 13 long balls (to total 33 on the year).

The addition of Jason Castro should help Santiago. Kurt Suzuki wasn't going to do him favors behind the dish, and a pitcher who has given up 62 homers since 2015 needs every advantage he can muster. Again, the Twins won't be counting on the 2015 All Star version of the former Angels pitcher, but they need him to pitch like he deserves to be in the rotation as opposed to an arbitration casualty.

Finally, the biggest boost from the group could come from home grown Kyle Gibson. The former first round pick has been a breakout candidate for the past two years now, and it just hasn't come together. After an exciting 2015, Gibson took a big step back in 2016, and that needs to reverse its course. Despite owning a 5.07 ERA last season, it was the 4.70 FIP that did him in. Owning strikeout and walk totals in line with his career norms, Gibson wasn't doing himself any favors with an already shaky defense.

Molitor's sinkerballer needs to put himself in good situations and capitalize on them. Through early spring action, he's arguably looked the best of all Twins starters, and while results aren't much to get hung up on, his process and efficiency have been notable as well. If Gibson can emerge as the ace of the Twins staff, and take the reigns from Ervin Santana, the rotation group will be elevated beyond what the loss of May likely is.

At the end of the day, Minnesota not having Trevor May in the rotation to begin the year is an unfortunate development. No matter who fills his shoes however, it's going to be on the cast of the already assumed starters that will need to pick up the slack. What kind of upside Minnesota's 5th starter possesses was always going to be a wild card, but the margin for error is now markedly smaller.

Time to see who can pick their teammate up.

Where Does The Twins Pitching Come From?

A year after having the worst starting pitching staff in the big leagues, the Minnesota Twins will be looking to turn a significant corner in 2017. Paul Molitor has a pretty realistic opportunity to bounce back greatly in the wins column, but it's only going to happen if he can get productive outings from his starters.

While the Twins haven't had a true ace since the days of Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana, there are plenty of teams the operate with a good group rather than a top heavy individual. The Twins will be taking the latter path this year as they fill out their rotation, but the question becomes exactly who rounds it out.

Going into the year, I count at least 10 pitchers that Minnesota could task with starting a game. After using 11 different starters last season, I opined that the Twins would run out no more than 8 in 2017. Counting Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, and Kyle Gibson as rotation locks, the club will need to make decisions on the final two spots. That brings us to the candidates and the order of their likeliness:

Phil Hughes

In Hughes, the Twins have an odd scenario. He's absolutely a lock if he's healthy, but coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery doesn't guarantee that. Guys have bounced back differently, and he could be a shell of himself, or not pitch again at all. Hughes has faded every year since finishing 7th in the Cy Young voting during his first year with the Twins. If he does come back, hoping he lands somewhere just north of his 3.90 ERA across 2014-15 would make Minnesota ecstatic.

Trevor May

I'm much more skeptical than some on whether or not May finds success as a starter. Working as a reliever, he saw a nice spike in both his velocity and strikeout rates. Unfortunately, his back flared up and is likely tied to usage concerns. He hasn't consistently started since his debut season in 2014, and the results weren't good. Now more developed as a professional, the Twins will have to hope he can give them the strikeouts, with better command, and stay healthy.

Jose Berrios

After doing himself few favors last season, Berrios is going to be in a scenario in which he has to earn his spot during Spring Training. If Hughes isn't ready from the get go, I'd bet Berrios is the next man up. Command was the issue during Jose's rookie season, and his flat plane fastball got hit over the fence far too often (12 HR in 58.1 IP). The Twins will need to rely upon the year providing valuable experience, and the dominating stuff from Triple-A playing up a bit more at the highest level.

Adalberto Mejia

Acquired in exchange for Eduardo Nunez last season, Mejia was a nice get for the Twins system. He doesn't have flashy stuff, but should be capable of a back end spot in the rotation. In four starts for Triple-A Rochester, he totaled a 3.76 ERA to go with an 8.5 K/9. At the big league level he surrendered two earned runs across just 2.1 IP as a reliever. Mejia should get a serious look in Spring Training, and he's maybe the safer option if Minnesota wants to make absolutely sure that Berrios is ready.

Stephen Gonsalves

Now we get to the bit of the stretch portion for Opening Day rotation options. Gonsalves is the Twins top pitching prospect by most accounts, and he should be expected to be a solid contributor. However, he's yet to pitch above Double-A. While Gonsalves owned a 2.06 ERA last year, his 10.0 K/9 was watered down a bit by a 3.7 BB/9. He has some command issues to work through, and will need to rely on pitching at the higher levels as opposed to just throwing. I'd expect him to make his MLB debut this season, but not out of the gate.

Tyler Duffey

After starting 36 games for the Twins over his first two big league seasons, it's time Duffey heads to the bullpen. A college closer at Rice, Minnesota went the most sensible route in attempting to convert him to a starter first. Now 26 and without a dominant trio of offerings, he can be a very good two pitch reliever. His curveball is filthy when it's on, and he'll be more than capable of getting big leaguers out. Send him to the pen, decrease the homers (25 in 25 starts during 2016) and enjoy the uptick in velocity and strikeouts.

Justin Haley

Included here because Haley has worked as a starter for the entirety of his minor league career, and likely is slotted there in the Twins future, he should only see pen time this season. Haley did pitch at Triple-A during 2016 and fared well posting a 3.59 ERA. He has been categorized as among the safest Rule 5 picks, and many have said he's major league ready to back-end a rotation. Given what's ahead of him though, I'd welcome his opportunities in 2017 to come in a long relief role.

Phil Hughes' Incredible Record Could Fall

The 2014 Major League Baseball season brought Phil Hughes to the Minnesota Twins. He was signed, and then extended, on a free agent contract and ended up being among consideration for the AL Cy Young award. The former Yankees first round pick had an incredible debut with the Twins, and in the process, set a record that didn't get much notoriety.

As has always been the case, Phil Hughes is a guy that simply does not walk many batters. He's never been a real serious strikeout threat, and it's probably fair to suggest Hughes hasn't been the player that Yankees hoped they would get from a first round starter. That said, he's more than capable of holding down a spot in the middle of a big league rotation, and he can make getting professional hitters out look routine.

During 2014, Hughes struck out batters, while walking so few, at a truly incredible pace. He eventually finished with an 11.63 strikeout to walk ratio, which would go down as the single greatest mark over the course of a season in Major League history. Hughes joined Bret Saberhagen as the only pitchers ever to post a strikeout to walk ratio of 11.0 or greater.

Since 1884, only four pitchers have ever had a strikeout to walk ratio of 10.0 or higher. Jim Whitney accomplished the feat in 1884 for the Boston Beaneaters. Saberhagen joined him in 1994 while pitching for the Mets, and Cliff Lee rounded out the trio in 2010 as he split time between the Mariners and Rangers.

This all now becomes relevant again though because the record which Hughes set in 2014, one that broke Saberhagen's 20 year old mark, could fall this season. As September baseball winds down, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw currently owns a mark that would smash Hughes' number into oblivion. With a 17.22 strikeout to walk ratio through 18 starts, Kershaw would top the Twins pitcher by nearly six strikeouts per walk. The one caveat to the scenario is whether or not Kershaw pitches enough to become qualified.

A big talker as the summer wound down, Kershaw was placed on the disabled list with injury issues. There were concerns as to whether or not he would pitch again this season, and if he did, what kind of effectiveness he would have. Now removed from the disabled list, Kershaw has made two starts in September in which he's owned a 2.25 ERA and a 10/0 K/BB across 8.0 IP.

Pitching today, Kershaw should make three more starts for the Dodgers yet this season. That would give him 21 on the year, and somewhere in the realm of 140.0+ IP. Should he reach the floor to qualify, his mark will almost assuredly unseat that of Hughes.

While Kershaw's number is significantly higher than the mark the Twins 2014 ace put up, it's impressive to see just how the two of the compare as well. Clayton Kershaw is one of the game's best at striking batters out, and that's witnessed by his 10.8 K/9. In just 129.0 IP, he has 155 strikeouts. For comparison, Hughes pitched 209.2 innings during 2014 while fanning just 186 batters. When looking at the walks, it's Hughes that may get the nod. In over 200 innings during 2014, he issued just 16 free passes. Kershaw has been stingy as well, but has given up nine walks in 129 innings thus far in 2016.

Regardless of how everything shakes out, the efficiency displayed by Hughes in 2014 and Kershaw this season is something to truly marvel. The former did it but limiting the damage he inflicted upon himself, and the latter has been a master of inflicting damage upon opposing hitters. Using history as a guide, Hughes and Kershaw have shown us something we may not see again for quite some time.

Salvaging The Worst Of The Twins

Through 82 games, the Twins are on pace to blitz by a franchise worst amount of losses, and finish the season as the worst team in history. Suggesting the first half of the season has been anything but a disaster would be putting it nicely. That all being said, there's plenty left to play for in 2016.

Considering that the bulk of Minnesota's schedule to close out the year comes against AL Central foes, Paul Molitor's club will see a lot of their divisional rivals and can begin to prepare for the year ahead. While it's going to be important to try and slow the pace of the losing, it's equally as important to set up for success in the year ahead.

Looking at how the Twins have positioned themselves, what will be available on the market, and where the roster stands, many of the answers for the future are going to need to come from within. Starting to figure those out sooner rather than later remains in the best interests of the club.

If you're going to place a heightened focus on certain places the rest of the way, here's exactly where I'd point you:

1. Jose Berrios

First and foremost, Jose Berrios needs to get back up to the big leagues and settle in. Across his last four Triple-A starts he's owned a 0.60 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to bat just .104/.171/.156 against him. He's allowed just one home run in his last 30 innings and he's walked batters at just a 2.1 BB/9 rate over that time.

There's no denying he scuffled in his big league debut. As Keith Law of ESPN warned, command and a flat fastball were his biggest deterrents. He'll need to keep the ball in the yard, and he can't issue so many free passes. What remains a constant though is that the Twins need Berrios more than he needs to be here. Minnesota doesn't have an ace, and hasn't for a while. The rotation is full of mediocre options performing below their typical high water marks. Berrios may not be among the best pitchers in the major leagues, but he needs to settle in the rest of the way and be viewed as the Twins go to starter to open 2017.

2. Who is your number two?

If Jose Berrios can finish the year in the big leagues, and do it while pitching well, you have to find out what you have behind him. Right now, the Twins need to be looking everywhere to see if they can move Ricky Nolasco or Ervin Santana. The latter seems like he'll have suitors, while the former's market remains up in the air.

Tommy Milone may not be offered arbitration again, and that leaves just Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes. Gibson was expected to take a step forward this season, but despite not being healthy, has struggled to do so. He turned in a nice effort last time out, but owns a 4.82 ERA through 9 starts and has walked a career worst 3.4 per nine. Hughes is facing an uphill battle in coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery, and there'll be plenty of question marks there. Someone needs to pitch behind Berrios, and it can't be a group of mediocrity. Minnesota will need a legitimate one-two-punch, but who makes it up is yet to be seen.

3. Is there an actual closer?

As of right now, the Twins should be operating under the belief that the days of Glen Perkins closing baseball games for them is done. His velocity has declined severely, and he'll now be entering 2017 after a shoulder surgery that required his labrum be reattached to his bone. He has a 3.51 ERA over the past two years and has saved 32 games. Without a stellar pre-All Star 2015 bolstering those numbers though, things are much worse.

Brandon Kintzler is currently operating as the Twins closer, but like Kevin Jepsen before him, that's a role he's not really cast for. Paul Molitor needs to see if Trevor May or Ryan Pressly could be a better option for the here and now. Nick Burdi hasn't pitched hardly at all in 2016 due to injury concerns of his own, and the Twins have given a whopping two outs of major league work to J.T. Chargois. Those are the names I'd start with for closers in 2017, you can't go into the year with a question mark at the back end of a mediocre pen.

4. Settle the log jams

Really, the only areas that the Twins need to be concerned in regards to players piling up are at second and third base. Both Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco should be at the major league level, but there's currently only room for one. Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano play the same position, and when both are healthy, that's been an area of concern as well.

It's pretty obvious that the Twins should've traded Plouffe some time ago. His value has probably never been lower than it is now, and a move at this point would be beneficial if only for opening up the roster spot. In regards to Dozier and Polanco, the return for the Twins All Star second basemen should be hefty. Despite entering his 30's, Dozier is a late bloomer and has been one of the most offensively productive two-baggers in the big leagues. I'm really good with trading either, but the return has to be right for both. At the end of 2016 however, only two of these four should realistically be options going forward for Minnesota.

5. Allow Buxton to struggle

I was really happy to see the Twins make the right move in their latest roster shuffles by adding guys back without sending Byron Buxton out. Sure, he's scuffled at the plate, but his defense is already Gold Glove caliber. He's shown the club he can rake at Triple-A, and there's nothing new he's going to learn by heading back there.

Run Buxton out nearly every day and let him struggle through it. He's got a good head on his shoulders, and confidence doesn't appear to be an issue he struggles with. He's hit a better (but still not good) .222/.248/.374 since rejoining the Twins, and his 37% strikeout rate is a far cry from the 53% output he had prior to his demotion. There's going to be a lot more lumps for Buxton to take the rest of the way, but if he can figure things out and take them now, it sets him up to hit the ground running in 2017. Minnesota needs to let that process play out.

When you have played as bad as the Twins have, there's not many positives to draw from the first half of what has been an unfortunate year. That being said, the rest of the way invites an opportunity to position things for a better start in 2017, as opposed to packing it in and slogging through the rest of the schedule. If Minnesota can get a few things to click down the stretch, the team they have a year from now will be significantly better for it.

In Trading Santana, Twins Can Start Over

As the Minnesota Twins continue their run through the 2016 Major League Baseball season, it's more than apparent to label them as sellers when the July 31st trade deadline rolls around. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor will have to decide who sticks going forward, but no one not named Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton should be considered off limits on the 25 man roster. It sounds like the piece that may draw the most interest could be starting pitcher Ervin Santana.

Recently, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that an American League assistant GM told him that Santana is seen as "perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market." It's interesting that this information comes from Cafardo. Not because he's been unreliable in the past, but instead, Cafardo's assigned Red Sox could definitely use some starting help. With that reality in play, it's fair to assume he may be pretty clued in to the starting market.

So, if the Twins are actually going to grab some offers for Ervin Santana, what can we actually expect? Right now, Santana is in just the second year of a four-year deal paying him $55 million. At 33 years old, he's not merely a rental, and a contending team could do considerably worse. In his time with the Twins, Santana has started 31 games and posted a 4.27 ERA. It's almost identically in line with his 4.29 FIP and inflated due to a 1.357 WHIP. His 6.6 K/9 isn't going to light the world on fire, but his 2.9 BB/9 has been more than acceptable. A middle of the rotation starter, you'll get what you expect with Santana.

Having pitched in both the American and National (briefly) Leagues, Santana's stuff should play just fine no matter where he ends up. His fastball velocity has remained consistent the past two seasons with Minnesota, if not even slightly experiencing an increase. Looking back through his career at his contact and chase rates, he's been virtually the same pitcher for the duration of his 12 big league seasons.

In return for a pitcher like Santana, the Twins probably should do better than a throwaway prospect. Again, he's not a rental, and a veteran with his pedigree should truly be able to help a contending team down the stretch. He's not going to bring back a massive haul, but if he emerges as one of the better options on the market, Minnesota should have a few returns to choose from.

Arguably the best thing trading Santana allows the Twins to do is start over, and aim higher. Terry Ryan has made a habit (and it's a bad one) of going after middling options in free agency. It's time that someone new step in, and deviate from that strategy. In moving on from Santana, the Twins shed some significant salary requirements, and immediately open up a spot in the starting rotation.

Ideally, it's Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco that the Twins are able to move on from first, but that isn't a realistic possibility. The level of mediocrity achieved in inking them to free agent deals (and in extending Hughes) really hamstrung the Twins immediate future. While Santana is a middling option, he's still head and shoulders above the bet that was the two aforementioned names. Trading Santana though allows the process to start.

Once Santana is out of the picture, the Twins have an immediate opening in the starting rotation to be claimed by Jose Berrios. It allows him to settle in through 2016 and lay claim to a 2017 Opening Day spot. From there, you'd like to see Minnesota parlay Hughes and Nolasco into a one contract, top of the rotation starter. The caveat is that neither come off the books a season from now (Nolasco 2017, Hughes 2019). Looking at the landscape of what's available however, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

The starting pitching market in 2017 was Stephen Strasburg and everyone else. Now inked to a long term deal by the Nationals, the Twins need to be saved from themselves by overspending and overreaching yet again. In keeping Hughes and Nolasco for another year, the 2017 club could have another hot name at deadline time. While there isn't a ton of ideal options in 2018 either, Minnesota could chose to commit the $100+ million they have tied up in Hughes and Nolasco to one top tier option.

What the Twins do in the future remains a pretty significant mystery. Half of the equation is whether or not Terry Ryan gets to orchestrate what happens going forward (and the hope would be that he doesn't). What they can't do though is continue to operated along the same lines as they did to get to the place they are now. Ryan has committed over $150 million to three pitchers who all are no more than a middle-rotation starter on a playoff club.

Santana's time appears to be done, and with it should go the mindset that brought him in.

The Twins Chips Ready To Move

It's June, and the Twins are the worst team in baseball. They've currently been swept half as often as they have won games, and this season has gone the opposite of any expectations could have laid out. With a couple of months left to the trade deadline, it may be time for Terry Ryan to start sending his chips to the table. Minnesota doesn't have many any big names, but there's pieces that are worth moving.

Despite Major League Baseball dictating trades being allowed (in the traditional sense) up until July 31, the Twins would be best served to act well before then. As a handful of their current commodities may have short shelf lives, moving them prior to any downfall would be a good idea. If you've begun reading trade pieces on the interwebs at all, you know who is considered as trade chip for Minnesota, but I'm prepared to tell you who the club should move.

With that said, let's get into it.

Fernando Abad- Level of trade necessity 10

Easily Ryan's best free agent signing of the offseason, Abad came in as a non-roster guy that the Twins believed they saw something in. Commenting that he was tipping his pitches, Minnesota thought that the 4.15 ERA in 62 games for the Athletics in 2015 was an outlier, turns out they were right. Currently, Abad owns a 0.93 ERA in 19.1 IP. He's posted an 8.4 K/9 and walked just 2.3 per 9, a career best.

Abad is a lefty reliever capable of getting batters from both sides out. He's a luxury that the Twins don't need to afford. Their pen is bad, and so are they, his value doesn't push the needle much. Sending him to a contender to solidify their pen is the most realistic plan of action, and he should have plenty of suitors.

Eduardo Nunez- 9

If there's a reason the Twins shouldn't send Nunez to the All Star game, it's because he shouldn't be with the organization when that time rolls around. Considering Abad a must trade, Nunez should be considered a must trade now.

I'm not in favor of taking a bag of balls back for Nunez, but his value is never going to be higher than it is currently, and waiting only invites the opportunity for it to fall. Nunez's .329/.356/.494 slash line is well above his career norms (.274/.314/.401) and he's continued to be a poor defender. For now, he's been one of the lone contributors on a bad club, and making sure to get some return on that is a good plan of action.

There's reason to believe a return for Nunez won't equate to much, he's got a decent track record that says this is a mirage. That being said, if someone is willing to cough up a mid-level prospect, the Twins should be all over it.

Robbie Grossman- 5

Despite making few well timed moves during the offseason, and a poor display of roster control throughout 2016, Terry Ryan seems to have come up well with Grossman. The 26 year old is finally doing something he never has before, hit. An on-base machine, Grossman's bat has turned in a .359/.457/.667 line over his first 12 games with the Twins. He's already amassed 6 doubles and has two homers to his credit. Right now, Paul Molitor and crew have to be hoping the carriage doesn't turn back into a pumpkin.

Sure, Grossman is 26, and not arbitration eligible until 2018. The team control he possesses makes him valuable if you believe this sort of thing continues. However, he was cast aside by the Astros for a reason, and couldn't find his way into the Indians plans. Grossman will probably always find ways to get on base, but betting on his bat is a risky gamble.

With the ability to be a 4th outfielder at worst, I'm not going to simply give him away. I'd rather have Grossman in the organization as opposed to a retread like Darin Mastroianni in a pinch. However, Minnesota should be able to find a contender needing that type of lift immediately, and could maximize their return by flipping the recently claimed asset.

Trevor Plouffe- 7

Over the offseason, my number on Plouffe would have been a 4. I am of the belief that Miguel Sano has been virtually as expected in right field, and while some may see that as an abomination, I'd put it as simply below-standard. Sure, playing the hulking Dominican in the outfield is about as suboptimal as it gets, but the Twins and Plouffe were tied to each other.

Despite coming off a solid season for the Twins, Plouffe's winter trade market was non-existent. David Freese settled for nothing with the Pirates, and the Twins watched that all play out. The reality remained that Plouffe was more valuable to Minnesota than he was to anyone else. The unfortunate thing now is that I'm not sure that has changed.

As much as I've been ok with sano in right, it's probably time to get him back on the dirt. Plouffe though, has hit for a career worst .648 OPS and he's walked significantly less than at any other point in his career. The power numbers haven't been there, and he's merely capable at third. I'm for dealing him to open up the roster spot, and get Sano to a more comfortable position. The problem I see is that the market may dictate the Twins simply give him away, and I'm not sure that's the best plan of action.

The Others: 10

Only two guys fall into this category for me, and it's the combination of Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. Remember, the numerical values represent the level of trade necessity for the Twins. I can't see either pitcher being coveted, but I'd look to move both for whatever you can get.

Nolasco was poor money allocation from the get go, and Hughes' contract extension has turned out to be a significant blunder. The Twins have starting depth, even if it isn't all top tier, but opening up the roster spots and freeing the case is a plus in and of itself. Nolasco needs to go back to the National League, and Hughes may very well be pitching hurt. There's no real scenario in which I want to lean on either guy going forward, and offloading them makes that much easier.

I can't imagine the Twins would be getting much, if any, of a return for Hughes or Nolasco. With Ricky, they may have to eat some money, and Hughes' extension pays a hefty price tag if he continues to trend the way he has. Ryan should be making it his mission to call, unload, and move on from the pair in whatever way possible however.

Stacking Up The 2016 Twins With Phil Mackey

After a season in which the Minnesota Twins surprised many around baseball, 2016 presents a whole new opportunity for Paul Molitor and his squad. Now no longer toting the weight of multiple 90 loss seasons, Minnesota looks to expand upon its near playoff performance from a season ago. I have contended often that in 2016, the Twins remain the AL Central team most capable of finishing first just as well as last in the division.

Despite having talked about plenty of narratives this offseason here at Off The Baggy, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Twin Cities baseball mind Phil Mackey. He can be heard weekday mornings on 1500 ESPN Radio doing the Mackey and Judd show. While the topics on their show range across all Minnesota sports, Mackey's wheelhouse in no doubt on the diamond, and he's one of the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the Twins.

Set up in a question and answer format, Phil fielded a handful of thoughts on the 2016 Minnesota Twins, and offered his perspectives and outcomes for each. Take a look:

Off The Baggy: A season ago the Twins were one of baseball's surprise teams. Needing to push the needle further this season, what is the key factor that makes that happen?

Phil Mackey: They need two things, in general: A better bullpen and more top-end talent on the roster. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and J.O. Berrios could solve the “top-end talent” part of the equation. The bullpen remains to be seen. I love Glen Perkins, and he’s been an awesome contributor to our radio show every week, but can he stay healthy in August and September? Can Kevin Jepsen repeat his performance from last year? I feel pretty good about Jepsen-May-Perkins, if healthy, but the Twins will need guys to really step up and lock down innings 5-7.

OTB: After going into 2015 with a bullpen that should have caused worry, do you feel the same about the 2016 situation or see it as improved?

PM: I think I just answered this question in the previous question, which fits in line with my overachieving personality… The most important thing is for Twins relievers to miss more bats. If I recall, the Twins’ bullpen has allowed more contact that just about any ‘pen in the league over the past couple seasons, which isn’t ideal when we’re talking about holding leads and preventing baserunners from scoring.

OTB: It was pretty apparent Danny Santana seemed ripe for regression last season. What player seems like the most likely to regress in 2016 and why?

PM: Eddie Rosario seems like the obvious answer here, just considering the enormous gap between his strikeout and walk rates… but I’m going to go with Kevin Jepsen. Last year was a career season for him, and I highly doubt that he’ll be able to repeat it. Sort of like Devan Dubnyk with the Wild. Not repeatable. But we’ll see.

OTB: I know you're a big sabermetrics guy. Give me the over/under on some numbers for Eddie Rosario in 2016: 14.0% Swinging Strike, 8 Defensive Runs, Saved 2.0 fWAR

PM: Under on the swinging strike rate… Over on the DRS… Over on the WAR. I think the demise of Eddie Rosario is vastly overstated. He’s a sharp dude with great instincts (do you like those scouting terms in the middle of your saber question?), and I think he’ll find ways to adjust and adapt.

Of course, I just jinxed him. And now he’ll be terrible.

OTB: There should be no shortage of power in the Twins lineup this season, and the club should have a realistic shot at the 200 plateau. Who hits the most longballs for the Twins, and how many does Byung Ho Park tally?

PM: If Miguel Sano stays healthy, he’ll lead the team with 30-something. I’ll say 36. With Byung Ho, I honestly have no idea. Nothing would surprise me. If he plays every day, and if you set the over/under at 19.5, I’d probably take the over. But it’s possible morph into more of a platoon bat (with Arcia potentially on the roster), which could reduce his total. Byung Ho has plenty of pop, but can he adjust to MLB location and secondary pitches?

Which leads me to a mini-rant… Everyone is so fixated on whether Byung Ho can hit “a major league fastball.” That’s not the issue. I don’t care if every pitch is 100 mph – every professional hitter will square it up if he KNOWS it’s coming. Where MLB pitchers differ most from guys in the KBO, the minors and other inferior organizations is A.) location and B.) command of secondary pitches.

/rant

OTB: Out of options, and seemingly running out of time, what are your thoughts on Oswaldo Arcia? Is he another potential David Ortiz, or a roster casualty that you're ok losing on waivers?

PM: I think it would be a huge mistake to let him walk for nothing. Oswaldo Arcia will hit 20 or 30 home runs for somebody in 2016 if given enough plate appearances. Not to mention, he already has a track record of destroying right-handed pitching. He’s David Ortiz Light. Or Diet David Ortiz.

OTB: In the rotation, the Twins top three pitchers all have a strong chance to be pretty good this season. Which of the following do you see as the most realistic outcome? Hughes has a bounce back year, Santana pitches like he finished 2015, or Kyle Gibson emerges as the Minnesota ace?

PM: In order of how likely…

1.) Hughes bounces back

2.) Santana pitches like he did in second half

3.) Gibson emerges as the ace

In fact, the Twins’ rotation actually has a lot more upside than people are giving credit. Santana and Hughes have both been able to anchor rotations for long stretches in recent years (when they’re ON), and Berrios could fit that bill too. Now, will ALL of them be lights-out at the same time? Unlikely. But there’s upside.

OTB: Wrapping up the conversation, the Twins should have three realistic rookie of the year candidates. Who do you see making the strongest push between Park, Buxton, and Berrios?

PM: Byron Buxton has the best shot. He’ll start at a premium position and will play every day, immediately. And he doesn’t need to be great at the plate to make a huge impact. If he plays top-notch defense, steals bases and does marginal damage at the plate, he’ll be in the mix. I think his worst-case projection is B.J. Upton.

There you have it, Phil might have started to agree with me on Rosario, but I really like the suggestion of Jepsen being a name to cause some pause. I think the Twins bullpen has the chance to be better than we saw a season ago, although I'm not sure strikeouts will improve a vast amount. Regardless of where the numbers fall across different positional groups on this roster, there's no arguing that the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins has the most intrigue of any team in recent memory.

The Case For The Ace: Who Gets The Nod?

The snow has melted, the season has changed, and the Twins have embarked on Florida. Spring Training is now well underway, and the Twins are set to kick off their slate of games. As the team positions itself for the meaningful contests in April, it's the March matchups that will pave the way. On the mound to set the action off for the Twins will be Phil Hughes. The question is, what does that mean going forward?

Paul Molitor made the announcement that Hughes will be the starter for the Spring Training opener against the Boston Red Sox. While that would seemingly line up for Hughes to have the inside track to be the Twins Opening Day starter, should that end up being the case?

A season ago, Phil Hughes experienced more regression than any other Twins pitcher. After generating Cy Young votes in 2014, Hughes totaled a 4.40 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 2015. He still walked virtually no one (just 0.9 BB/9), but he also struck out significantly less batters (5.4 K/9 after an 8.0 K/9 in 2014). The Achilles Heel to his performance was no doubt the longball however.

In 2015, Hughes led the league in home runs surrendered (29) and in doing so, posted his worst career mark since giving up 35 as a Yankee in 2012. While no doubt the homers weren't a good addition to Hughes' performance, they also could have signified markedly worse numbers. Over 80% of the balls that left the yard against Hughes were of the solo variety, no doubt saving him from numbers that looked even worse.

So, where does that leave Hughes in the year ahead? As a pitcher who generally has alternated solid performance years, 2016 would already line up to be the next strong year. Looking at his numbers though, Hughes also has some reason for optimism.

A year ago, over 13% of the fly balls Hughes gave up left the yard, that mark doubled the 6.2% posted in 2014, and was also higher than his 10% career average. He allowed hitters to make hard contact over 31% of the time, a 4% increase from 2014, and also higher than his career average (29%). If he's going to turn the corner back towards looking like the pitcher Minnesota initially signed, the strikeouts will again take a tick upwards, and Hughes will have more batters off balance.

For the Twins, Hughes turning things around is no doubt a necessity. The competition for the staff ace shouldn't be a one man race in the season ahead however. Regardless of who starts on Opening Day, both Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson seem to figure into the team's best pitcher in 2016 when the dust settles.

A season ago, Santana was slapped with an 80 game suspension as Spring Training drew to a close. Despite taking him a handful of starts to settle in, Santana was virtually unhittable down the stretch. From August 30 through the end of the season (7 starts) Santana owned a 1.62 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash just .209/.275/.294 against him. He struck out 47 in 50.0 IP and allowed just 14 free passes. In that time frame, he also surrendered just one home run, while have two double-digit strikeout performances.

Looking at what's to come for Santana, the Twins no doubt are looking for a repeat of that late-season performance. Despite signing out of the National League, Santana has been an AL pitcher for virtually his whole career. His best ERA was posted in the AL Central with the Royals during the 2013 season, and his strikeout numbers remained on par with his career averages. When all is said and done, Santana should no doubt be among the Twins best.

Then there's Kyle Gibson. Gibson probably presents the most intrigue of the Twins three cemented starters. After taking a step forward in 2015, it's the year ahead that he should be expected to impress even more so. Finishing with an ERA that ranked near the top of the AL (3.84), Gibson also posted career bests in starts (32), innings pitched (194.2), strikeouts (145), WHIP (1.289), H/9 (8.6), and K/9 (6.7). The former Twins first round pick saw the success he was always billed to be capable of.

Now rounding out the trio of the capable big league starters, Gibson can continue to settle into his own upward trajectory. More than either Hughes or Santana, Gibson benefited significantly from the addition of pitching coach Neil Allen. Allen, who's a changeup believer, had Gibson throwing the pitch a career high 19.6% of the time (up from 12.5% in 2014). The effectiveness of Gibson's changeup was no doubt helpful in generating more swings and misses (9.8% was a career high in 2015).

While there's probably not much stock to put into who becomes the Twins ace, or who toes the rubber on Opening Day, the fact is that Minnesota has three starters all capable of pushing the envelope. With Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Jose Berrios contributing behind them, each member of the core group is capable of being a stopper and getting the job done. For the first time in quite a while, Paul Molitor should have a staff capable of respectable numbers as compared to the rest of the league.

On The Twins Creativity, Or Lack Thereof

Taking cues from another Twitter conversation, seriously you're missing out if you aren't following along (find me at @tlschwerz), the creativity surrounding baseball moves has been a hot topic of late. When looking at how the Twins have handled player acquisition in recent years, there's something to be said about what has been done well, and well, what hasn't.

I first got to thinking about this after reading a very well thought out piece over on Twins Daily. In it, Bill Parker sparks the conversation in regards to what the Twins could have done differently during their years of losing. Payroll and debates about contracts have generally surrounded the mid-market Twins. It's been a point of contention for the fan base, and likely will continue to be. The biggest takeaway from the piece comes down to smart spending, and the lack thereof.

Parker discusses past free agent contracts, and what the Twins might have passed on during their seasons of 90 loss seasons. While Terry Ryan and the Twins took dart throws to the effect of a marginal amount of added victories, a big splash likely would not have saved those teams from themselves either. Unfortunately, it's that strategy that continues to be employed when it shouldn't be.

That brings us to Mike Bates' piece on Twins Daily. Bates discusses the Twins continuing to operate in a similar manner, despite the situation. While I can nitpick at pieces that I may or may not agree with throughout the article (we all know I think Sano can work in right field), there's a much larger point being hit on. Bates makes two points that should become a virtual backbone when discussing any roster configuration Minnesota employs.

He says, "The Twins have a profound lack of ambition in virtually everything they do." Furthering the point, he contends, "Instead of attempting to sign a single free agent starter with a higher upside at some point over the last three years (like a Jordan Zimmermann, a Jon Lester or a Johnny Cueto), and maybe a relative lottery ticket in Hughes, the Twins took small bites at the apple."

This leads us to the crux of this piece, and some examples of points in which the Twins seem to get it, and where they don't.

Over the past few years, the Twins have spent significant money on three starting pitchers.  Phil Hughes was given a three-year, $24 million deal in 2013 that was then extended another two seasons. Following that splash, Minnesota then inked Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million deal. Rounding out the group, the next offseason saw the Twins land Ervin Santana on a $55 million contract spanning four seasons.

Regardless of how the production has looked, only two of those moves ever made sense the day they were signed. With free agent contracts being earned off of past production, and some hope for an immediate return, pushing on upside is where a middle-of-the-road team like the Twins should be. Both Santana and Hughes had glints of upside.

Hughes owned an ERA in 2013 nearly three points lower on the road (3.88) than at Yankee Stadium (6.32). Getting out of the homer friendly park suggested he could be a significantly more effective pitcher in a different venue. That narrative immediately proved true in 2014, and despite 2015 regression, still had him post his third best ERA since 2011. For Santana, he was a guy that had a solid track record of an ERA somewhere in the middle-to-high three range. He was experienced in the AL, and posted one of his best seasons as a pro with the Royals just a year prior. Again, upside loomed large for the Twins.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Nolasco checked himself in. A career National League pitcher (spending eight year with the Marlins and briefly the Dodgers), a mediocre at best 4.37 ERA suggested who he was. His 3.76 FIP mark and 7.4 K/9 were more than likely only going to decrease in the less favorable, American League. Despite plenty of detractors, the Twins made him a $12 million man.

Similar misses have been made on much smaller scale minor league deals as well. It's more than fair to argue nearly any minor league deal has no downside for a major league club, the Twins don't always leave themselves much upside when looking to bring those types of veterans into the fold.

While all minor league transactions may be low risk, they are not created equal. Recently, I had a commenter suggest that dart throws are nothing more than a blind toss. It's unfair to assume however that a guy like Blaine Boyer (coming off a 2.93 FIP) wouldn't be a better use of a spring invite, than the walking corpse of Jason Kubel (who had been demoted to the minors hitting .216).

Ideally, a 25 man roster isn't going to be reliant upon a player looking to make the club following a minor league deal. Picking statistical inefficiencies to exploit no doubt helps to push contributions upward if you're going to take a flier however. There's belief behind Fernando Abad working, and Carlos Quentin is a worthy flier. If you had to bet on another Jason Kubel type though, you'd no doubt hope Ryan would aim higher.

Creativity is a very broad term, and employing it while 29 other terms are working towards the same goal is a tough ask. That said, looking for the Twins to target a more serious ceiling in free agency, rather than just checking a box is a safe place to start. Hoping for the dart throws to be aimed more towards the bullseye rather than just hitting the board is something else fair to ask for. No one expects Terry Ryan to reinvent the wheel, but having a more direct focus is something the Twins could afford to embrace.

The Extended Phil Hughes

For the Minnesota Twins, pitching was absolutely an area of contention in recent years. As the team skidded towards 90 loss seasons for four years in a row, finding quality arms to fill out the starting rotation was a must, and a struggle. After emerging back into contention a season ago, the Twins took steps forward across the board. One man who wasn't a part of that equation was 2014 free agent signee, Phil Hughes.

As a 28 year-old in 2014, the Minnesota Twins inked Hughes as a free agent from the New York Yankees. The belief was that in abandoning the Cracker Jack box that was Yankee Stadium would lead to improved numbers for the former first round pick. That narrative couldn't have been more true.

In his first season with the Twins, Hughes set a Major League Baseball all time record in strikeouts per walk with an 11.63 K/BB rate. He offered free passes at just a 0.7 BB/9 rate, and turned his 3.52 ERA into a 7th place finish among Cy Young candidates. Had the defense behind him stepped up even further. his 2.65 FIP could've played even further, and his 8.0 K/9 would have held even more weight. By all measurable numbers, Phil Hughes' first season with the Twins was a smashing success.

Over the offseason, Minnesota extended Hughes who is now playing on a five-year, $58 million deal. He is signed with the Twins through 2019 and will be 33 years-old at that time. Following his extension, Hughes regressed. In 2015, the ace of the staff owned just a 4.40 ERA along with a 4.70 FIP. His K/9 numbers dipped to 5.4 although his walk rate stayed impressive at 0.9 per nine innings.

A season ago, the biggest detractor for Phil Hughes was the long ball. After allowing just 16 homers in his first season with the Twins, he gave up an American League leading 29 a season ago. It was the second worst mark of his career, and the worst since allowing 35 in 2012. In 27 starts a season ago, Hughes allowed home runs in 20 of them, surrendering at least one a month throughout the season. The damage could have been worse had 19 of those 29 not been solo shots. It's more than fair to say that limiting the long ball could have changed the season for Phil Hughes.

There were a couple of factors that no doubt aided the increase in home runs surrendered. Posting the worst mark in his career, Hughes saw 13.5% of the fly balls he allowed leave the yard. He gave up line drives over 24% of the time for the first time since 2008, and he gave up hard contact at a 31.2% rate, or a 4% jump from a season ago.

Pushing some of the change in effectiveness could be explained in Hughes experimenting with his arsenal. With new pitching coach Neil Allen in the fold, Hughes did some things different in comparison to 2014. Hughes threw just 59.2% of his pitches as fastballs, tying a career low set in 2011. He also threw more curveballs (15.7%) than he had since 2012 and had gone back to a changeup (4.8%) after all but abandoning the pitch in 2014 (0.2%). While not extremely drastic, the changes could have contributed to the issues the former Yankee experience.

Now heading into a second season with pitching coach Neil Allen, and a third with the Twins, we have probably seen both ends of the spectrum when it comes to Hughes. If he can fall somewhere in between the two extremes, the Twins will have to feel more than justified with their extension, and happy with a guy that can operate at the top of their rotation.

Steamer projections have him pegged for a 4.20 ERA along with a 4.25 FIP. The 6.05 K/9 mark would be a boost, but the system sees a decrease in walk rate now offering free passes at a 1.38 BB/9 clip. The most concerning number is that projections have Hughes pegged for the same 29 home runs surrendered, albeit while pitching a significantly higher load at 198.0 innings.

Projections aside, Hughes knows exactly what he has to work on. Giving up too many homers at Yankee Stadium was a problem, and it's not one that can be replicated in a pitcher's park like Target Field. Broken down to it's simplest terms, Hughes keeping the ball in the yard would have him looking like an extremely effective pitcher. A few tweaks and making that happen, should only bolster the Twins rotation further.

Void of top tier arms, it's the minor tweaks made throughout the year by Hughes and Ervin Santana, as well as the continued emergence of Kyle Gibson, that will make all of the difference.