Twins Can Optimize With One-Year Pacts

 

As things stand right now the Minnesota Twins have what can be considered an incomplete 26-man roster. There’s work yet to be done, as there is for most teams in baseball, and the front office may find favor in one-year agreements for 2021.

 

The reality right now is that teams are using the lack of traditional revenues as reasons to spend less for the 2021 Major League Baseball season. On top of that, there’s uncertainty regarding the 2022 season due to an expiring CBA and the previous history between the league and Players Association. While the Twins may see reduced payroll as a way forward in terms of financial flexibility, one-year deals may be an outlier allowing them to still maximize a competitive window.

 

It’s a pretty hard sell for the Pohlad’s to suggest they are committed to winning while instructing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to take their foot off the gas in the midst of developmental emergence. This organization signed their biggest free agent in history just last offseason, and not pairing him with more talent as the home-grown group has emerged would be a head-scratcher at best. While it wouldn’t necessarily reduce the bill for 2021, removing future monetary commitment is a practice that makes some sense this time around.

 

Think back to 2018 for a moment. Minnesota made a splash with Spring Training already underway. In a less than ideal market for both players, the secured the services of Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. Both players came in a bit disgruntled at the process they witnessed over the winter, and their output left plenty to be desired. At that time, the suggestion of hired hitman brought forth the discussion as to whether chemistry was ever truly able to be established. With a different set of parameters this time around, a similar plan could be truly beneficial.

 

Thus far the only deal of consequence for Minnesota has been the acquisition of former Angels closer Hansel Robles on a one-year deal. Internally, he joins Michael Pineda as a free agent following the 2021 season. There’s a sunk cost already with Josh Donaldson, and then much of the Twins roster is on team-friendly extensions, or just into the arbitration process. In short, there’s not much of a massive monetary leap year over year from what’s already committed to.

 

Enter the onslaught of one-year deals. Kris Bryant for $18 million, yep, sure. Trevor Story at the same price, why not. How about Sonny Gray for just over $10 million, or Jon Gray coming in just under $6 million. The reality is that while all of those players are substantially more costly than a prospect at the league minimum, the future financial fear is off the table. You could add Nelson Cruz and his $16 million ask to this group as well. The point isn’t that the money is inconsequential, but that you’d be maximizing your opportunity while still having flexibility in the seasons ahead.

 

For years Major League organizations have seen record growth and financial dividends. 2020 provided an unprecedented halt to those trends, but the reality for the vast majority of the league is that a profit was still turned. Having the ability to regain that opportunity in the near future remains a priority for ownership, and this would give them a clear vision to see that come to fruition.

 

Players in the final year of contracts, and especially those with hefty price tags, should not require a ransom be paid in exchange for their services. The Rockies Story is an elite talent, but plenty of Minnesota’s system should stay intact. Bryant would seemingly have even less of a required package, and the same could be said about Colorado’s Gray. I don’t know how Falvey and Levine will navigate these waters when they finally dip their oars in, but this seems like a plausible path forward.

 

In a traditional cycle I’d be less interested in a team full of short-term reinforcements. If it means that talent is bolstered and payroll flexibility is still to be achieved, this could be a blueprint that satisfies all needs.

Planning the Twins Winter Moves

Today officially marks the beginning of free agency for the 2020 Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins have some serious work to do with four-fifths of their starting rotation up for grabs, and a 100-win season to replicate. Rocco Baldelli will be angling for a second straight AL Central Division title, and the goal for the foreseeable future in Twins Territory will be Postseason berths.

While working through a full blueprint to outline a 25-man roster for the Twins I found myself getting hung up on a few key areas. I think we’re going to see a handful of moves that may come as a surprise, and rather than trying to pinpoint each, a better plan of action seemed to come with a top down view. While remaining somewhat specific, here’s how I’d handle things going into 2020:

Start with the Rotation:

Jose Berrios is locked in. I’d try to get him extended on a long-term deal again. Minnesota has approached his camp previously, but talks have not moved forward. He’s a few steps from a Cy Young arm, and at that point, he won’t have interest in avoiding the open market. Even if the Twins offer Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg significantly over market rate, I’d imagine both say no. Falvey should be all in on both arms, but the lure of a bigger market or home on the west coast probably proves too strong. This is where you pivot.

Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher available in the Twins wheelhouse, and he’s a very good one. Make him a priority and get that done as soon as possible. Two 2019 options should also be leveraged as possible returnees. Minnesota should offer both Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda a qualifying offer. The former could turn that into a two or three year deal while the later could then be had at roughly $13 million accounting for his remaining suspension.

The final rotation spot would then be filled out by a trade. There’s too much firepower on the Twins farm not to execute something, and Eddie Rosario represents an expendable big-league asset. Utilize the depth to go and get someone like Jon Gray, Joe Musgrove, or Matt Boyd. Aiming even higher to a proven commodity as Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson suggested might be interesting as well.

Add to the Lineup:

It’s fair to assume that regression is going to hit for the 2020 Twins. What’s also worth noting is that any changes to the baseball will have a widespread impact. Minnesota hit bombas because of a strong plate approach, and that will play regardless of what composition the baseball encompasses. That being said, a great deterrent to a step backwards offensively is adding more offense.

The Twins have a boatload, something like $70 million, to spend this offseason. With Wheeler being the likely high-water mark on the mound, there’s going to be plenty to go around. Instead of overpaying similar candidates on the bump, choose the guy(s) that makes the most financial sense add allocate the funds towards high impact help elsewhere.

I’ve talked myself into this, look at Anthony Rendon. The Twins could bring back C.J. Cron, and barring better wrist health, he should see a nice boost. They could also move Miguel Sano across the diamond and angle for a substantial upgrade at the hot corner with some intriguing options. Rendon is an MVP-type superstar and has plenty of good years ahead of him. I’m not as keen on 34-year-old Josh Donaldson as I was last year, because he’ll now want a multi-year deal, but that’s not a bad option either. If the Cubs are truly inclined to move Kris Bryant, and there’s a belief in his health, I’d absolutely explore that scenario as well. At the end of the day it comes down to this; if you can’t spend the money on pitching, you need to spend it elsewhere and aiming high is far better than adding quantity.

Rounding out the offense would include an additional outfielder and a catcher. Whether or not Eddie Rosario is traded a guy that could be had on a one-year deal makes sense. I like the idea of Corey Dickerson as a corner outfielder with on-base skills and some pop. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also a very strong defender, which is a facet of the game Minnesota needs to improve on. Cameron Maybin is also somewhat intriguing with the ability to play some centerfield.

Behind the plate you operate with Mitch Garver as the starter. He needs to play more often than he did in 2019, but there could be a decent amount of truth to him being at his best with significant rest. Pairing him with a nice defender that can also hit makes sense and going the route of former Houston Astro Robinson Chirinos is to my liking. He’s got good on base skills, hits better than a traditional catcher, and isn’t a hack behind the plate.

Shore up the Bullpen:

Coming out of the winter and into Spring Training there was nothing more problematic than Minnesota’s bullpen. It looked the part of a dumpster fire that was going to struggle getting anyone out. Then the development of some internal arms took place and Baldelli’s group was one of the best in baseball down the stretch. Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May have all worked their way into a circle of trust. Wes Johnson will still need three or four other arms to complete the group, however.

Rather than pushing Lewis Thorpe or Brusdar Graterol to the pen full time, bringing in some hired guns is the way to go. Sergio Romo should be welcomed back, but there’s no reason to pigeonhole that move either. Drew Pomeranz could be a nice second lefty, and any number of arms make sense to round out the group. Will Smith is the cream of the crop, but Will Harris and Jake Diekman types have purpose as well.

To summarize how I’d plan I’ll say this: For the first time in a while, spend. The window is open, you know what you have, and the prospect depth is coming close to maturation. Whether you can land the big fish on the mound or not is always going to be tough with plenty of suitors and a less-than-ideal-destination, but those resources need to go elsewhere then. Minnesota should clear $140 million in payroll this winter, and $150 million is far from unrealistic. Do as much as you can on the mound, and then look to make the additional impact throughout the roster.

Minnesota is no longer in a wait and see mode. The capability of youth has been understood, the veterans have provided plenty of production, and the circumstances are now on your side. There’s been complaints for years that have been somewhat misguided without that trifecta being a reality. In 2020, there’s nothing holding the organization back but itself, and it’s time to remove that barrier.

The Twins Ideal Adds on the Trade Market

If the Minnesota Twins are going to put a focus on adding impact pitching this offseason, the reality is they’ll need to venture outside of free agency to accomplish their goals. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg represent commodities rarely seen on the open market, and they both could be called home to California. I definitely am in on making Zack Wheeler an offer he can’t turn down, but things get messy from there. With prospect capital and some expendable big leaguers, the time to swing a deal appears ideal as well.

There’s little reason for any team to part with their best pitcher regardless of current situation. Luis Castillo is an absolute stud in Cincinnati, but the Reds just made a move to get Trevor Bauer last season. Instead of targeting the slam dunk, Minnesota needs to go and find their version of Cole or Justin Verlander or follow the White Sox footsteps in acquiring a guy like Lucas Giolito. All those arms are among the best in the game, but that same definition couldn’t be applied when they switched teams.

So, where do the Twins turn their focus?

Colorado Rockies- Jon Gray or German Marquez

Under team control for two more seasons, Gray was the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He has sandwiched two strong seasons around a clunker over the course of the last three. The strikeouts are there, and so too is the velocity. Walks are a bit problematic, and the longball has hurt him while playing at Coors Field. Get him to Target Field and let Wes Johnson work some magic.

A teammate of Gray, German Marquez is also very intriguing. He’s younger, under team control for a year longer, and arguably has the better profile. Another strikeout arm, who possesses strong command, has been bit heavily by the longball in Colorado. Despite the 4.76 ERA in 2019, Marquez owned a 3.54 xFIP which followed up a 3.10 mark the year prior. He was my dark horse Cy Young pick this season, and he absolutely looked the part for stretches.

Pittsburgh Pirates- Joe Musgrove

Another former first round pick, Musgrove would be on his third team if dealt, but he too is not a free agent until 2023. He’s never posted a sub 4.00 ERA and the K/9 has never entered 9.0 territory. He doesn’t issue many walks, is moderate with the home run, and could be just a few tweaks from the next step. His hard-hit rate spiked to a career worst 37% this season, but he’s never generated more whiffs. If the Twins believe in their pitching infrastructure, here’s another arm they could salivate about working with.

Detroit Tigers- Matthew Boyd

The end result couldn’t be further from where he was at the midway point, but Boyd’s final 11.6 K/9 is nasty. He has yet to put it together over the course of a full season, but 2019 was definitely the closest he’s been, and the 3.88 xFIP tells a fairer story. You may pay a premium dealing within the division, but Detroit isn’t going to be good before Boyd hits free agency in 2023. He was dangled at the deadline, and the winter may provide more opportunity.

Atlanta Braves- Max Fried or Mike Foltynewicz

Brian Snitker has his ace in the form of Mike Soroka. This team is going to be good for a while, but they also have some very real holes to fill. Fried would have a massive price tag being under team control through 2024, but his first full season as a starter went well. The 4.02 ERA was backed by a 3.72 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. He has strikeout stuff and was able to take a big step forward in the command department.

Having been demoted to Triple-A, and roughed up in his final Postseason appearance, Mike Foltynewicz may benefit from a change of scenery. After generating Cy Young votes a season ago, he put up a 4.54 ERA in 2019. After heading to the farm with a 6.37 mark through June, Folty returned to the tune of a 2.65 ERA across his final 10 starts. If there’s an opportunity to take advantage here, Minnesota would be wise to do so.

Arizona Diamondbacks- Robbie Ray

Another guy that was talked about heavily during the deadline, Ray is entering the final year of arbitration eligibility. He’s posted a 12.0 K/9 or better for the past three seasons, and while durability concerns persist, he’s electric while on the bump. The walk and home run rates aren’t pretty, but given the length of his contract, he could also have one of the lower acquisition costs across moveable assets. This Twins front office is also familiar with Arizona having swung the Eduardo Escobar deal a couple of seasons ago.