Miguel Making Good in Year 27

Take some time to watch Ballplayer: Pelotero during quarantine. Everyone has plenty of that right now and remembering the mega-prospect a teenage Miguel Sano was should not be lost on anyone. Now today, on his 27^th birthday, we get to look back on what’s been accomplished.

Through parts of five Major League seasons Sano has amassed 8.5 career fWAR. He was in the running for a Rookie of the Year award, has made an All-Star Game, and surpassed the 100-career homer plateau. He’s also been asked to play right field, suffered significant injury, and experienced a demotion from the big leagues all the way back to Single-A.

To suggest Miguel Sano’s career with the Twins has been eventful would be putting it lightly.

Here’s the thing though, we’ve been given more than a glimpse into the reality that the mega-prospect was worthy of all that hoopla. No, he’s not the skinny shortstop that he was way back in those Dominican days, but that was also never the expectation. He’s since moved from the hot corner to first base and plays the part of a hulking corner bat. He’s the definitive member of a team dubbed the “Bomba Squad” and his efforts of late rewarded him to the tune of a $30MM contract extension.

It would always be hard for a guy with Sano’s profile to create substantial value in multiple avenues of the game. He’s an average defender at best, and he now plays a non-premium position. Should he assume Nelson Cruz’s designated hitter role in the years ahead, that becomes even more of an accepted reality. At the plate though, he’s one of the most feared hitters in the game, and since buying into his ability the production has only taken steps forward.

The argument I’ve always made in relation to Sano is that there was never a talent issue. He’s got the ability to be one of the best power hitters in the whole sport. What has always held him back was the reliance on that fact, rather than the execution and effort in order to accomplish it. Maybe it was the guidance of Nelson Cruz, maybe it was the leadership of Rocco Baldelli, or maybe it was Sano himself deciding he was done settling; any or all of those things could be true, but we’re at a point where the Twins are getting the best version of a player they’ve long hoped for.

#MNTwins home run leaders through age 26 season:

1. Tom Brunansky - 162 HR
*2. MIGUEL SANO - 118 HR*
3. Kent Hrbek - 117 HR
4. Justin Morneau - 110 HR

With his new contract, Sano is in a good position to break some team records. https://t.co/o3kH69zhKz

— Matthew Taylor (@MatthewTaylorMN) May 11, 2020

Sano has already vaulted himself up organization leaderboards. Only Tom Brunansky had hit more home runs through their age 26 season than that of Sano. He’s got the ability and time to become Minnesota second best home run hitter ever, and he’s already suggested that his desire would be to play out his entire career in Minnesota.

We’re way too far off to make any determinations regarding the dust settling, but I think it’s pretty hard not to be excited about what is yet to come. Finding ways to play himself out of a lineup spot, or lacking commitment to produce at anything but his best, are both hopefully behind him. If those realities remain true, then the entirety of the Twins organization will be in store to reap the benefits of this guy for many years to come.

Happy 27^th Miguel, and here’s to lots of fun ahead.

Did Major League Baseball Stumble into a Money Pit?

Back in April I wrote an article at Twins Daily about how the Stay at Home orders all but forced creativity upon baseball. The Twins Trevor May architected an MLB The Show Players League and by the end we had matchups on ESPN. With classic games being televised left and right, it was the initiative today that caught my eye.

Here’s the thing, classic games are awesome, but it’s a slog for many to get through countless hours of a known outcome. Speaking specifically about myself here, it’s exactly the reason I’m not fond of re-watching movies, no matter how good they are. Committing a substantial amount of time only to know the end result isn’t an opportunity I jump at.

On Opening Day, or what was supposed to be such, I tuned into Periscope to watch the Twins and Tigers game 163. It was a blast being there for that game, and it was probably the first time I’ve re-watched it since. The desire for action was significant given the removal of baseball on the day it was supposed to start. Fast forward to where we are today, and I haven’t watched a single re-run since. I stayed up for KBO Opening Day action, and I got all in on the Players League. Outside of that, it’s been pretty desolate on the sports front.

Streaming on https://t.co/r272dAOexg today: “Epic Innings” - 42 of the most memorable half innings in baseball history, presented back-to-back over eight hours in chronological order. First started at 9aE. Second one begins at 5pE. The full list: https://t.co/Bb9VhxrN0T

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 6, 2020

Then there was a tweet from Ken Rosenthal that reminded me MLB.com was streaming non-stop coverage of some of baseball’s greatest half innings. One event for each of the 30 teams, hours of content, but broken up into just minutes of the best action. If this concept sounds familiar it’s because that’s exactly what the NFL has done in monetizing the Red Zone Channel. By cutting to action only in the biggest situations, fans are constantly kept abreast of the most exciting parts of a game.

Rob Manfred has stumbled over his own shoelaces constantly when it comes to thinking of ways to draw in new fans. Thinking that pace of play is a substantial deterrent, or that pitchers facing a minimum number of batters, or even that a timer to speed up aspects are the answer, he continues to miss the mark. The product right now may be the best it’s ever been, but the accessibility of that product remains a massive hurdle.

Games are blacked out even on the league owned streaming service. Players are not widely accessible across all markets, and promotion of the game is often done better by anyone not directly affiliated with the sport (who then immediately face copyright claims). This little endeavor on a random Wednesday afternoon could have unlocked something big though.

Imagine an avenue to watch any game going on with runners in scoring position, the bottom of the ninth, or a late inning comeback. You’d consistently see new and emerging stars on the greatest stage, and you’d do it while introducing those players to fans that otherwise may not have watched that team. It would be a way to consume baseball in conjunction with your own team, and something fans would see as a significantly less daunting commitment. As a Twins fan I’m not watching an entire game between the Marlins and Pirates, but I’d love to see Brian Anderson with a late game opportunity to walk it off.

There’s hurdles and red tape to work through with any new idea, but pushing those boundaries is something that baseball has failed to do time and time again. It’s when those types of initiatives are embraced that Rob Manfred will have begun to make the impact he’s long been looking for, and we’ll all be appreciative fans because of it.

Baseball Returns! Sort of…

When the calendar turns to May 5 over in Korea, we will officially have the Opening Day we never knew was necessary. Thanks to COVID-19 shelving Major League Baseball thus far in the United States, we are clamoring for sporting outlets. The NFL Draft drew massive numbers, and The Last Dance draws wonderfully on ESPN. Now, if you stay up late enough (rise early enough), we’ll get KBO action.

It’s been weird to think about so little to cover as it relates to the Minnesota Twins or Major League Baseball I’d have numerous opinions and thoughts on the entire league, as well as the focal organization as a whole, but we have few things in the vein of new developments. That’s left Off the Baggy a bit light, as well as doing a similar number on go-to Twins site Twins Daily.

Recently there however, I did write about a Minnesota slugger we never got to see in all his glory with the Twins. ByungHo Park was both injured and then ineffective when he traveled to the United States in hopes of continuing his KBO production. It was a perfect storm of unfortunate events and it never worked out for either party. Now back in his homeland, Park has been the pride of the KBO power production once again.

ESPN will air six KBO games per week. Here's the schedule for this week! pic.twitter.com/QB0mb9srDZ

— Jared Diamond (@jareddiamond) May 4, 2020

Unfortunately, we won’t get a chance to see the Kiwoom Heroes on ESPN in the first week of broadcasts. The network is broadcasting one game a day and Kiwoom did not make the cut. For Opening Day central time zone viewers can catch first pitch between the NC Dinos and Samsung Lions at midnight. Karl Ravech and Eduardo Perez will be on the call.

I’m looking forward to staying up for the experience, and any form of baseball is better than the state we’re currently in. It will be interesting to see how the KBO game is received here, but I certainly hope that it’s batflips proving a key component to defeating this virus and the boredom brought on by it wiping out sports.

Baseball is Ready to Unite Us All

We’re now quickly approaching May 1, a time in which Major League Baseball originally was slated to resume for the 2020 season. COVID-19 has continued to disrupt those plans, and the lack of sports has become frustratingly difficult. However, when we do get resumption (and that remains inevitable), I can’t help but reflect on two big returns.

As things stand, we still have no idea when baseball will be back. The Coronavirus pandemic has dealt body blows to our country and around the world. Continuing efforts to react and respond to the situation has left resumption of what was once normal everyday life a complete secondary goal. That being said it seems that May will be a pivotal month for baseball.

Today Jeff Passan wrote about the return of Major League Baseball, some of the ideas in place, and most importantly that the reality is trending from an if to a when. May could be the month that lays groundwork for future answers. We’re still likely a ways from seeing plan put into action, but having actual blueprints drawn out is a very integral part of the process.

We have seen baseball halted before, not like this, but invoking similar feelings. There have been wars, tragedies, and events that have reach far beyond the diamond. When trying to anticipate what it may be like when we hear “Play ball!” again, I’m quickly drawn back to a pair of East Coast experiences.

If you think about the hurt that 9/11 brought to the country, there are few greater pains than a mass killing in the name of hatred. I was just 11 at the time, but I know when we further distanced from the actual event that September 21 night in Queens was a big one. Mike Piazza hit a home run to dead center that shook the entire nation. I’m not a New York fan and supporting either of the Major League franchises there will never happen. I do know however; the country needed that homer.

Years later Boston was at the center of an attack. With bombs going off during one of the most prolific events in the world, not only did the Marathon come to a halt, but so too did a city. I remember tracking the news about a manhunt that had people shuttered in their homes and led to the eventual capture of a coward hiding in a boat. The surreal emotions brought on by the initial impact and days that followed were truly mind boggling.

When we had resumption of sport in the Massachusetts epicenter there he was, former Twins castoff David Ortiz. By this time Big Papi had become Boston. He was a fan favorite and will go down as one of the best hitters to ever play the game. After honoring all the brave men and women that vowed to keep the city safe, Ortiz did as he often does and gave us the “This is our f****** city” level of emotion.

I don’t think suggesting a worldwide pandemic is along the same lines of hatred these other two instances sought out to prove, but there’s a unifying factor when we experience something together. The nation, and world, are going through this same event in a very similar way. Sports provide a distraction that allow us to turn from everyday life, and we can come together through fandom that unites people from so many different backgrounds.

Give me flags flying, flyovers causing chills, and maybe the pop of the mitt bringing a tear to an eye. We likely won’t be in the ballparks to witness it, but baseball will be back, and we’ll all be better for it.

Fleeting Second: Brian Dozier’s Awesome Flash

I found myself thinking through recent Twins history today and considered how much volatility there has been in terms of consistency. The Twins have been mostly bad, but when good, the performances have came and went rather quickly. 2020 truly looks like an open window, but it is Brian Dozier that I latched onto as the pinnacle of the roller coaster.

After debuting in 2012 as a shortstop, Dozier quickly flamed out at the position after just 84 games there in his opening salvo. He would relocate to second base and it wasn’t until 2015 that he began to make his mark. He was an 8^th round pick, and despite an appearance in both the Home Run Derby (2014) and All-Star Game (2015), he didn’t crack an .800 OPS until 2016.

That was the year, at age-29, that it seemingly all came together. Dozier reinvented himself into a dead-pull hitter that was determined to find the quickest way over the left field fence. His 42 homers that season were the most by any Twins player during a single year not named Harmon Killebrew. He became a slugger despite a smaller stature, and he had risen to be called one of the best second basemen in the game.

It really wasn’t since peak Robinson Cano that baseball had seen someone like Dozier. Brian wasn’t the prototypical uber-prospect, and he certainly wasn’t a five-tool player either. Like Cano, he was an offensive stalwart at an otherwise starved position. Around the league second base had become a destination for poor armed shortstops and was generally a position that you could find someone sitting right at league average.

The 2016 Twins were abysmal in every sense of the word. They won just 59 games and manager Paul Molitor couldn’t get any more out of that squad if he tried. Thanks to Dozier’s dinger derby, there was at least something to tune into on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, much of his accomplishment was lost nationally in the vein of his club being so bad. He’d go one to follow up that performance with 34 dingers in 2017, a year in which Minnesota made the Postseason.

Now having played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals since, Dozier’s career has already begun a downturn. He did post a .771 OPS last season while playing in 135 games and eventually winning a World Series ring. He had to settle for a minor league deal heading into 2020, but the expectation would be that he’d make the San Diego Padres Opening Day roster.

I’m not sure if we’ll see Brian reach that .800 OPS plateau again or not, but he was a late bloomer that gave us one of the highest peaks in Twins history. The unfortunate reality is that it came during a period of extreme lows and the contributions proved hollow in the grand scheme of things.

Thankfully, Dozier was a fan favorite and will not soon be forgotten in Twins Territory. His career will likely come to an eventually end being a rather nondescript one, but the memories will remain among the fondest to take place at Target Field. It will be interesting to see what we get from him in those nice new Padres threads, and what there is yet to come in the future.

It will not be a career that’s celebrated with substantial accolades when he hangs em up, but it’s incredible to think how good he was, even if it was for such a brief time.

Jake Odorizzi’s Impending Payday

Prior to the 2020 season the Minnesota Twins needed to shore up their starting rotation. Rather than giving Jake Odorizzi a multi-year contract they handed him a qualifying offer. Agreeing to the $17.8MM deal may have left something on the table, but new developments mean Odorizzi could be in an interesting spot.

We have no idea what baseball is going to look like this year, or whether it will look like anything at all. Make no mistake, Major League Baseball will get creative to capture some of those revenues, but ultimately the season could be lost. With the agreement between the league and MLBPA that would mean Odorizzi becomes a free agent once again.

Going into 2021 the Twins could not extend Jake a qualifying offer. He’d have no draft pick compensation tied to him, and he’d be free to negotiate with any other organization. It’s one thing to say he’d be coming off a 3.51 ERA 3.36 FIP and career best 10.1 K/9. That’s a bit disingenuous though given then numbers were posted back in 2019. The 2020 season is and was an opportunity for substantiation, and should it not be played it’d be fair to wonder what true value actually is.

It would be foolish to suggest that Odo wasn’t an already solid pitcher prior to the season he had in making his first All-Star Game. In seven big league seasons he had posted a 3.95 ERA 4.22 FIP and 8.3 K/9. With a 102 ERA+, he was just slightly above average, but right in the general consensus of what you’d expect from a mid-rotation arm.

You aren’t paying $20MM per season for what Jake Odorizzi was, but you’d certainly pay that for the 29-year-old’s performance, and what you hope lies ahead. Now he’ll be 31 in 2021 but that obviously comes with the caveat of a full season having been spared in terms of mileage. Projecting forward is definitely an exercise that teams will need to be both bought into and have a general consensus as to what expectations will be.

I think Minnesota saw the qualifying offer as a likely acceptance from the former Rays arm, and it always made sense for them to go down that path first. They could have pursued a long-term deal had he denied it but saving themselves future risk made sense as a first course of action. Should they be pushed into a long-term scenario a few months from now, I’d also wager it’s a pact they’d likely make.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have pushed the Twins chips into a win-now mode of sorts. Kenta Maeda and Josh Donaldson are both stars on the opposite side of 30. Failing to continue pairing them with an overall talent level near the top of the big leagues doesn’t seem indicative of the current direction. Odorizzi could certainly have a hefty price tag should he be able to renegotiate a lengthier deal, but Minnesota already has helped him to take the next step and keeping him hear to make an even greater one seems sensible.

Maybe Odo will never receive the $17.8 million payday he agreed to for the season hanging in the balance. He should be in line for an even greater sum, and while there will be plenty of projecting it’s value, the Twins would seem wise to be a destination for him.

Catching Up on Baseball Reading

I’m not exactly sure why I didn’t put something like this together in the past, but there’s definitely more time on all our hands as the world responds to a global pandemic. Baseball allows us to consume the sport in so many different avenues, and while I appreciate your readership both here and on Twitter @tlschwerz, there’s been more than a few great books on the game that have come out in recent years.

With the analytical age being almost entirely focused on the consumption of information, we are now being provided content that can act as an avenue for knowledge advancement. Still rooted within the confines of the sport, there are literature works of art that challenge the way we think and push the boundaries for what is to come.

These authors are well known within the baseball world, and some of them have worked directly on the biggest stages of the sport. In no particular order, here’s a list of some recommendations I would have:

The Arm – Jeff Passan

With the emergence of Tommy John regularity over the course of the past few seasons there has been no better depiction of what has taken place and why. Passan dives into doctoral recommendations and advice, while cataloging just how we got here.

Smart Baseball – Keith Law

Start with why bunting may be a dying art and add in how to squeeze the most out of the only finite parameter in the sport, your 27 outs. Law provides knew ways to think about execution and outlines solid arguments as to why they make sense.

The Only Rule Is It Has To Work – Ben Lindbergh & Sam Miller

What happens when you allow to analytically driven minds to completely architect and steer a professional team? This book has your answer. Two Baseball Prospectus minds are given the keys to do as they please and this blends real personalities with calculated decisions.

The MVP Machine – Ben Lindberg & Travis Sawchik

Much like Lindbergh’s previous entry on this list, The MVP Machine is a must for number crunching fans. While the book does highlight both the Astros and Red Sox World Series runs, the message is clear. It isn’t about finding the diamond in the rough as much as it is creating that player. Because of data, organizations now can do just that.

The Inside Game- Keith Law

Following a similar thread as the one explored in Smart Baseball, Law is out to find the why behind the what. Baseball produces decisions at a blistering pace, and some of them are more well received than others. Understanding why a choice was the correct one, why it wasn’t, and what drives it all is a fascinating case study that can reveal plenty about ourselves.

Swing Kings – Jared Diamond

After analytics paved the way as a new buzz word, it stepped back for launch angle to take over. As more balls than ever leave the yard Swing Kings is there to analyze the trend and what players are saying in regards to staying power. This isn’t as much of a wheel reinvention as it’s billed, and the positive results suggest there’s plenty of reason to buy in.

If you’re looking for more of a biography or story based read, here are some of my favorites in that category:

Papi – David Ortiz

The Phenomenon – Rick Ankiel

Juiced – Jose Canseco

What are some of your favorites?