Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?

Teams are often considered to be on the losing end of trades when dealing with the Tampa Bay Rays. The brass in St. Pete does more with less, and players seem to get better when going to Florida. Did the Twins just get them for a second time though?

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a deal with Tampa prior to the 2018 season. They sent infield prospect Jermaine Palacios out in exchange for starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi. After a solid but mediocre debut season, Odorizzi was an All-Star in 2019 and posted a career best 10.1 K/9 bolstering his 3.51 ERA. Palacios had a .575 OPS as a 21-year-old during his debut season in the Tampa organization, and dropped to a .542 OPS as a 22-year-old repeating Double-A. Now back at Double-A for Minnesota, he’s 24 and owns a .745 mark at the level.

Regardless of what happens with Palacios, it’s hard not to see how Odorizzi worked out a win. Could that be happening again in terms of Nelson Cruz and Joe Ryan?

The Twins had to deal their designated hitter. Cruz is 41-years-old and it’s more than evident this season was lost for Minnesota. Despite his .907 OPS here, Cruz needed to be flipped for any semblance of a return at the deadline. Getting a pitcher like Ryan, capable of fitting into the top-half of a rotation, seemed like a coup for the front office.

It’s far too early to make determinations on what Ryan will be, but Tampa has to be underwhelmed in what they received. Cruz just recently surpassed the .700 OPS mark (thanks in part to facing his former club), and has just a .219 average with a .273 on-base percentage. It plays for a team that needed a big bat, but Nelson hasn’t been close to the Boomstick the Twins knew him as.

Minnesota must be pleased with what they’ve seen from Ryan. In 9.0 IP for St. Paul he had a 17/2 K/BB and allowed just two earned runs. After returning from the Olympics as Team USA’s ace, that was enough to earn his first big league promotion. Across five innings he surrendered three runs while punching out five and walking one. The book that was suggested at Triple-A continued to read correctly at the Major League level, and it’s a step away from what has become tradition.

Ryan is not a fireballer. His average fastball velocity for the Twins sat at just 90.8 mph. In a league focused on hitting triple-digits, it’s an uphill battle for a ball like that to play. His four-seam generated an average of 2,100 RPM and is used up in the zone. Twins Daily’s Parker Hagemen broke down the success of locating that pitch, and why it should be believed that the lesser velocity can still have a tremendous effect at the highest level.

joe ryan's fastball deserves the hype.

how does 90mph get that many swing and misses?

ryan releases at 5.05 ft, one of the lowest for non-side-armers.

his attack angle is -4.08 -- one of the highest in mlb -- giving it a "rise" effect.

low release point + ride = above barrel. pic.twitter.com/zjzCTFNmhG

— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) September 2, 2021

One start is entirely too soon to crown Ryan as Minnesota’s next ace. From my vantage point, I’m not even sure his stuff has that type of ceiling. What I do know is that the Twins getting this much control over Ryan in exchange for two month of an aging Cruz on a bad big league team is a steal in every sense of the word. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don’t have a good track record on the free agent market, and their trades could even be questioned at times. When they’ve dealt with Tampa though, it’s hard not to consider the front office a resounding two-for-two.

The Twins Free Agency is Happening

 

This afternoon the Minnesota Twins made their first big splash of the winter in signing former Yankees starter J.A. Happ. He’s nothing flashy by any means, but the $8 million pact will move the salary needle.

 

Here’s the deal with Happ, he was passable in 2020 and his Baseball Savant metrics paint a prettier picture than a 4.57 FIP can (even with a 3.47 ERA). He was victimized by the longball at Yankee Stadium more often than he has been previously in his career, but he’s just a modest strikeout pitcher. Ultimately, he takes the place of Rich Hill on the 2021 Twins club and there’s nothing wrong with that.

This is the #MNTwins newest start in 2020. It isn't flashy, but that'll play at the back end of the group. pic.twitter.com/kGnOO7EXnY

— Ted (@tlschwerz) January 20, 2021

If Wes Johnson can utilize Happ as a 5^th starter that eats innings and keeps the offense within striking distance, he’ll make turns all season long. If he posts a 5.00+ FIP a la 2019 he could be a candidate to be bumped when Randy Dobnak or one of the other prospects force their way into the picture. It’s not glamorous, but it doesn’t preclude them from making any other moves.

 

Minnesota still needs a better arm in the rotation, and I have made the point since the beginning of winter that a trade seemed likely for a rotation arm. With Happ in the fold, I’m more confident than ever it will happen. Assuming Nelson Cruz is eventually brought back as the team’s designated hitter, plopping down $12 million or so on Jake Odorizzi becomes less feasible. A controllable starter still in arbitration can be had for less, and the prospect capital is where the spend comes.

 

I don’t think Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will fill out their bench solely with internal options, and at least one other relief arm still needs to be acquired. By allowed something like $14 million after a Cruz deal, there’s enough left on the bone to make a handful of different directions work.

 

Right now, just one of the four open spots on the 40-man roster has been utilized, and there could be more opened up with a player in that group sent as part of any package. There’s less than a month until Spring Training is supposed to kick off, and I told you it would be busy.

Architecting the 2021 Twins Roster

 

Despite being less than a month from Spring Training (or at least as it’s presently scheduled) there’s still something like 75% of eligible free agents unsigned across baseball. Huge names like Bauer and Springer are homeless, and the Minnesota Twins specifically have four empty spots on their 40-man roster. Moves are coming, but who and when?

 

I’ve thrown out a handful of names in this space as well as on Twitter this offseason, and now I’ll put some pen to paper. Using the Twins Daily created TwinsPayroll.com I plugged in names to a roster matrix. This would probably be a mix of what I’d like to see happen, and what I think is feasible.

Starting Lineup

 

Ultimately, I believe Nelson Cruz is back as the Twins designated hitter. That worries me as time is undefeated and he struggled down the stretch against fastballs in 2020. However, the fit is there, and I don’t know that we see a universal DH in 2021 (which is too bad). I’m hoping Minnesota avoids a two-year deal, and maybe an option for 2022 is enough to get that done. If it’s not Cruz, I’d prefer a two- or three-year pact with Marcel Ozuna or Michael Brantley. Both of them have positional flexibility, and a bit more long-term belief.

 

It should be a no-brainer that Alex Kirilloff will take over for Eddie Rosario in left field. Sure, the Twins could play the service time game, but that would be short-sighted given their window of contention right now. Allow him to make his $600k and roll with your best option out there.

 

There’s still plenty of reason to believe that Trevor Story could be a very good fit for this club through trade, and someone from the pool of Gregorious, Semien, or Simmons makes sense as well. I like the idea of one-year deals with the current roster construction, and there’s no reason why moving Jorge Polanco off of shortstop is a bad thing.

 

Bench

 

Ryan Jeffers is about the only player I’m confident in from this group. He and Mitch Garver should create a very solid backstop tandem, even if they’re both right-handed hitters. Jake Cave would make sense as the fourth outfielder, although I’d like to see Brent Rooker’s bat somewhere. Minnesota needs a utility player and signing either Kike Hernandez or Tommy La Stella is a good get there. I like Jurickson Profar the most of that group, but think he’ll get paid more than he’s ultimately worth. If you’re filling out the roster with an additional utility type, Travis Blankenhorn makes a lot of sense internally. I have no idea how this front office views former first-round pick Nick Gordon, but it would make sense for him to be in the conversation as well after a solid second season at Triple-A. The missed time in 2020 did him no favors, however.

 

Starting Rotation

 

There should be no pushback on Minnesota needing to acquire a fourth starter. The top three are solid and set, but another arm is a must. From the jump Jake Odorizzi looked like the second-best starter behind Trevor Bauer on the free agent market. He’s still out there, and there’s been buzz from other organizations having interest, but it would be nice to see him return healthy to the Twins. I still wonder if there’s not a good bit of reason to believe this arm could be acquired via trade, and anyone from Jon Gray to Sonny Gray could be exciting.

 

Randy Dobnak has pitched himself into the conversation for earned starts, and whether that begins 2021 in the big-league rotation or as a first man up type, he should see plenty of work. Minnesota will likely unveil one or both of Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran this season but pushing all of those arms back a bit with starting depth seems necessary.

 

Bullpen

 

Although he’s the hometown guy, I’m not necessarily particular to Brad Hand. I do think someone of that ilk is a must though, and Trevor Rosenthal fits the bill. There are probably just three spots left to fill out the relief corps, and Cody Stashak should absolutely claim one of them. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have targeted a few waiver claims in the form of Ian Gibault and Brandon Waddell but there may only be room for one. Looking for this year’s Matt Wisler, the spring slate should sort that out.

Twins Must Get Creative as Options Dwindle

 

The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason as one of the best teams in baseball. Forget about the futility in the Postseason, this roster is loaded. They have some holes to fill thanks to departing free agents, but there’s a lot to work with. In the rotation Rocco Baldelli could use another horse, but that’s gotten more complicated now.

 

On the final day to decide, both Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted the $18.9 million qualifying offer. The Giants handing a QO to Gausman seemed like a bit of a reach, and despite having multi-year interest from a few teams, was too tempting for him to pass up. With Stroman the situation was a bit more interesting. He opted out of the season on the day in which he accrued enough service time to reach free agency this winter. That left the Mets in a tough spot, but the business side of baseball played out in the form of a QO. I though Stroman would land the second largest deal of the winter, behind only Trevor Bauer, so this isn’t a great sign for an expected poor market.

 

As much as it would be great to see Derek Falvey reunite with former Indians colleague Bauer, it’s just not real logical. With two of the best alternatives off the board, there’s a ton of uncertainty left. Masahiro Tanaka is now probably the next best thing, with the injury-risk James Paxton and Corey Kluber behind him. It’s not as though the Twins need to go acquire an ace, but they can’t have a Homer Bailey situation play out over the course of 162.

 

It’s long seemed like a good bet that a trade would be swung for rotation help. Acquiring someone like Joe Musgrove or Jon Gray could be a very strong boost to the back end of the group. Derek Falvey flipped infield prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Jake Odorizzi, and Brusdar Graterol netted Minnesota Kenta Maeda. It’s not as though there’s a poor track record there and leaning on that success makes a ton of sense.

 

Speaking of Odorizzi, he looks like a nice piece at this point in the game as well. Although he dealt with injury virtually all of 2020, they could be categorized as fluky at best. He’s been nothing short of great for Minnesota when healthy, and while he’s not an innings eater by any means, the consistency when on the bump is more than a nice thing to lean on.

 

While Minnesota entered the offseason in a good place, it always was necessary to fill those few key holes. As options dwindle on the pitching front, they’ll need to navigate a minefield of uncertainty in the free agent market, and still look to shore up the group with more than a veteran dart throw. I don’t know if the answer is currently unemployed, but it should be plenty interesting to see which way they go.

Jake Odorizzi’s Impending Payday

Prior to the 2020 season the Minnesota Twins needed to shore up their starting rotation. Rather than giving Jake Odorizzi a multi-year contract they handed him a qualifying offer. Agreeing to the $17.8MM deal may have left something on the table, but new developments mean Odorizzi could be in an interesting spot.

We have no idea what baseball is going to look like this year, or whether it will look like anything at all. Make no mistake, Major League Baseball will get creative to capture some of those revenues, but ultimately the season could be lost. With the agreement between the league and MLBPA that would mean Odorizzi becomes a free agent once again.

Going into 2021 the Twins could not extend Jake a qualifying offer. He’d have no draft pick compensation tied to him, and he’d be free to negotiate with any other organization. It’s one thing to say he’d be coming off a 3.51 ERA 3.36 FIP and career best 10.1 K/9. That’s a bit disingenuous though given then numbers were posted back in 2019. The 2020 season is and was an opportunity for substantiation, and should it not be played it’d be fair to wonder what true value actually is.

It would be foolish to suggest that Odo wasn’t an already solid pitcher prior to the season he had in making his first All-Star Game. In seven big league seasons he had posted a 3.95 ERA 4.22 FIP and 8.3 K/9. With a 102 ERA+, he was just slightly above average, but right in the general consensus of what you’d expect from a mid-rotation arm.

You aren’t paying $20MM per season for what Jake Odorizzi was, but you’d certainly pay that for the 29-year-old’s performance, and what you hope lies ahead. Now he’ll be 31 in 2021 but that obviously comes with the caveat of a full season having been spared in terms of mileage. Projecting forward is definitely an exercise that teams will need to be both bought into and have a general consensus as to what expectations will be.

I think Minnesota saw the qualifying offer as a likely acceptance from the former Rays arm, and it always made sense for them to go down that path first. They could have pursued a long-term deal had he denied it but saving themselves future risk made sense as a first course of action. Should they be pushed into a long-term scenario a few months from now, I’d also wager it’s a pact they’d likely make.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have pushed the Twins chips into a win-now mode of sorts. Kenta Maeda and Josh Donaldson are both stars on the opposite side of 30. Failing to continue pairing them with an overall talent level near the top of the big leagues doesn’t seem indicative of the current direction. Odorizzi could certainly have a hefty price tag should he be able to renegotiate a lengthier deal, but Minnesota already has helped him to take the next step and keeping him hear to make an even greater one seems sensible.

Maybe Odo will never receive the $17.8 million payday he agreed to for the season hanging in the balance. He should be in line for an even greater sum, and while there will be plenty of projecting it’s value, the Twins would seem wise to be a destination for him.

What If Jake Odorizzi Is Minnesota’s Impact Arm?

Despite an opportunity to hit the open market after the 2019 season, Jake Odorizzi returned to the Twins on a $17.8 million qualifying offer. It ended up being below market value and could be even more of a coup if Odorizzi continues trending towards the impact arm this rotation covets.

One of the best moves the new regime has made since taking over was flipping middle infield prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Odo. Palacios is 23 years old, still at Double-A, and hasn’t posted an OPS north of .600 since 2017. Jake meanwhile had a career year in 2019, has wholeheartedly embraced data, and could be on the verge of a next step the pushes him into the upper echelon.

Coming off his first All-Star appearance in 2019, Odorizzi posted a 3.51 ERA bolstered by a 3.36 FIP. His 10.1 K/9 was nearly two notches above his career norms, and his 1.208 WHIP was the lowest it’s been since 2016. Despite the Bugs Bunny baseball, the fly ball specialist posted a career low 0.9 HR/9. His 45% career fly ball rate translated into a career low 3.5% HR/FB ratio despite a career high 42% hard hit rate.

How did all that come together? Well, Jake made some key strides in other areas obviously. His 93-mph average velocity was nearly two ticks up from 2018. At 29-years-old, he was adding oomph, and he’s been an early adopter of new technology. With that heavier fastball he was able to post a 12.7% whiff rate (career best) and batters made contact just 74% of the time against him.

Assuming consistent gains is an inexact science. While peak performance falls along different places on a bell curve, Odorizzi’s age 30 season should drop within the realm of peak performance. Looking for competitive advantages as he has been vocal about doing, alongside an infrastructure designed to push the envelope, there should be a perfect storm for Odorizzi and Wes Johnson to marry.

ZiPS projects Odorizzi to be right in line with Jose Berrios at the top of Minnesota’s rotation. His 109 ERA+ would lead the team among players on the Opening Day roster, and a 9.5 K/9 suggests a belief in 2019 performance. A 4.09 ERA would be a step backwards, but the 4.02 FIP holds a level of consistency across the board.

Ultimately Jake has put together back-to-back seasons with a 3.00 ERA just once in his career, and the later was a step off the former. At this point though, I think it’s safe to say we’re dealing with a redesigned set of inputs. Add in the fact that Odorizzi is once again pitching for a contract working on just a one-year deal and squeezing more out of that next opportunity is a very clear goal.

I think you can make a very easy argument that the Twins have a great level of starting pitching depth overall. The focus has always been on acquiring or developing the top tier arm. It’s assumed that Jose Berrios would embody that reality, and that’s a good bet, but Jake Odorizzi being right there with him seems equally as promising.

Zack Wheeler was the guy everyone understandably looked the part of a projectable arm entering this winter. Minnesota brought back the guy that outpitched him and has plenty of momentum in his corner as well.

Twins Set Up for a Big Splash

So far, the Minnesota Twins have committed something like $30 million in 2020 contracts to three players this offseason. Two pitchers and a backup catch mean the 26-man roster is quickly closing in on finality. At this point, there’s nothing left but the big bang.

Jake Odorizzi returning to the Twins was a great development. A longer-term deal is probably better than the qualifying offer situation, but it’s negligible nonetheless. Michael Pineda is a guy that made sense to QO, and instead Minnesota’s front office gets him on a two-year deal for less than the one-year tag. Alex Avila replaces Jason Castro as the backup catcher, and he provides a logical platoon partner for star starter Mitch Garver.

Although Odorizzi and Pineda are returning talents, their abilities represent some of the best on the market. Disappointment in the lack of a new name doesn’t hold much weight when the accomplishment of high-quality assets is the goal. Avila isn’t flashy, but it’s a pretty lofty expectation for catcher number two being able to accomplish that. In the moves they've made this front office has gotten the job done and nailed each and every acquisition.

Now comes the big wave.

At this point the Twins have something just shy of $100 million committed to 2019. Needing to push the payroll to no less than $135 million, there’s a significant chunk of change yet to be doled out. A reliever and corner infielder seem to still be on the docket, but it’s that key starter still twisting in the wind that has everyone wondering. Maybe it’s Madison Bumgarner or maybe it’s Hyun Jin Ryu, but no matter who it is, a fat check is getting cut.

I still think that the Twins are best served by both paying and trading for starters. The latter isn’t going to jump the bottom line much given the goal should be a level of youth and team control, which generally has a muted price tag. No one has ever gotten more in a free agent deal from Minnesota than Ervin Santana’s 4/$54 million in 2014, but both the total and AAV should be blitzed by in the immediate future.

There has been somewhat of a back to front way about attacking this offseason cycle from Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. They’ve shored up the holes with some of the lesser coveted assets, and now they can focus solely on positioning of the big guns. It seems to be only a matter of time before it happens, but the reality of when and not if has started to sink in.

Expect the Twins to land a player with an AAV of $15-20 million yet, and another $15-20 million split on the final assets to follow. It’s been fun seeing clubs cut checks before Christmas, and just maybe we’ll get back to the days of the Winter Meetings being some sort of exciting frenzy.

We’ll have to wait a bit longer to see how and what all transpires, but the monumental move looks to be on the horizon.

Everyone Wins on Odorizzi’s Payday

Prior to the 4pm deadline to decide on the qualifying offer presented to Jake Odorizzi by the Minnesota Twins, a decision was made. The 2019 All Star made the choice to return to Wes Johnson and Rocco Badelli’s staff on a one-year pact. This one will be lucrative at $17.8 million, but in the end all sides win.

In 2020 Odorizzi will be just 30 years old and is coming off a career year. He had a mechanics breakdown and blister issue mid-season for the Twins but bookended that performance with excellence. He was tied to draft pick compensation in this cycle, and though that would have worked in Minnesota’s favor, it wasn’t going to earn him any favors in the form of a larger paycheck. Odorizzi could have returned to Minnesota on a multi-year deal (or went elsewhere) but instead is banking on himself with time to cash in.

The Twins had only Jose Berrios under team control for 2020 among rotation options. Needing to beef up the unit, the front office immediately suggested that they would be targeting impact pitching this offseason. Bringing back an All-Star you’re familiar with is hardly a bad place to start. Knowing that they can also build off this foundation is more a relief than having four uncertainties.

I still believe that the Twins need to sign someone better than Berrios and Odorizzi, while acquiring a second arm with a value able to slot in between them. The open market has ample arms that can be paid to top the rotation, and dangling pieces to acquire that 3^rd starter makes a whole lot of sense.

When the dust settles, we’ll know how this decision worked out for both sides. Odorizzi is hoping to turn a second strong performance into a three or four year deal that would push over $50 million. If he’s able to put up a repeat performance working with coaches he’s grown accustomed to, then there’s no denying the payday will come. Given the spending flexibility Minnesota has, even the large AAV does little to hurt their overall building blueprint for 2020. The player is taking all the risk here, and both sides come up looking rosy.

Welcome back to Twins Territory Jake, it’s like you never left.

Decision Making on Parting Twins

With the band-aid now being ripped off and the offseason underway for the Minnesota Twins, no time will be wasted when considering how to reload for the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli’s club isn’t going to be an underdog going into the new year, and they should have plenty of momentum built towards a second straight AL Central Division title. When considering who may be on the way out, Derek Falvey has more than a handful of decisions to make.

There’s a very strong group of players that lay the foundation for the Twins core, but we’ve seen where deficiencies may lie, and opportunities exist. With a handful of guys set to take their talents elsewhere, but choice or designation, it will be on the collective decisions made by Minnesota to best position the roster for success. Not every guy with the ability to return should, and it will be in those difficult discussions that the skeleton of the roster is constructed.

Looking at each situation individually, here is what I’d both suggest and think that the Twins will do.

Nelson Cruz: $12MM option in 2020

This picked up today (October 9) and I’d imagine the front office couldn’t have ever been more excited to spend such a sum.

Twins are picking up Nelson Cruz’s $12M option for 2020. No surprise there.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) October 9, 2019

Jake Odorizz: Free Agent

After coaching him to a career season and a debut in the All-Star game, it would make plenty of sense for the Twins to retain his services. A qualifying offer somewhere around $18.5MM could be doled out, but that tends to lean more on draft pick compensation should the player decide to leave. Instead I’d think that Minnesota should make him a long-term part of their rotation and offer him something like $45MM over the next three years.

Kyle Gibson: Free Agent

The former 2009 1^st round draft pick will very likely be in another organization for the first time in his career. At 32-years-old it’s the end of an era and will be very different for all parties involved. Dealing with health issues all season didn’t do any favors to Gibson’s performance although he did set a new career best strikeout rate. Unfortunately, a rotation that needs to improve substantially just won’t have room.

Jason Castro- Free Agent

Wrapping up the three year deal he signed with the Twins, Castro’s free agency hits at the same time Mitch Garver has emerged. Jason Caught a career low 79 games in a split opportunity situation this year, but he posted his highest OPS since 2013. Garver should see something closer to 80% of the starts in 2020, but a veteran backup makes a ton of sense. The Twins could ask Jason what his thoughts are on a part time spot, or they could find someone or a similar ilk on the open market. My hunch is that his time here is done.

Jonathan Schoop- Free Agent

A one-year deal following a down season gave Schoop the opportunity to bounce back. He did that even while leaving some to be desired. His .777 OPS was nearly .100 points higher than 2018 but Luis Arraez emerged and took over his starting role. At 28 Schoop should still have a decent market at a down position, and even if his bat isn’t what it was in 2017, his arm keeps him significantly above average at the position. Good find for someone, but not going to be back in Minnesota.

C.J. Cron- Final Year Arbitration

After making just south of $5MM in 2019 Cron is looking at an increase near $6-8MM in 2020. He certainly didn’t finish the year the way he started, but a mangled thumb gave him issues since July. Cron will be only 30 years old and looked the part of a very strong contributor. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to move Miguel Sano to 1B and taking over as a primary DH for Nelson Cruz down the line seems a more logical step anyways. The market isn’t flush with options, and Cron can be had in his final arbitration year as he paves the way for Brent Rooker or Alex Kirilloff to take over. It’s not a guarantee, but I’d expect him back.

Martin Perez- $7.5MM Team Option

There’s no way the Twins are paying Perez nearly double what he made for them this season. Despite a strong start he was a disaster down the stretch and that led to more rotation questions than they hoped to handle. It would make some sense to bring him back at a lesser figure on a one-year pact that can be supplanted by developing arms on the farm. I don’t think the Twins will (or should) prioritize Perez, but he could be a factor depending on how the rest of the starting rotation is addressed.

Sam Dyson- Final Year Arbitration

At the deadline Minnesota added the best arm that was moved in the Giants Dyson. Unfortunately, he came with unannounced red flags and provided less than zero value in his time here. Now having undergone shoulder surgery, Minnesota will likely want no part of his 2020 situation. It’s too bad for the Twins, and at worst a bad look for Dyson. The Giants claim they didn’t know about an injury, and Sam suggests he’d been pitching through it for years. Good riddance to this one, and hopefully some compensation can be recouped through the league.

Sergio Romo- Free Agent

Entering his age 37 season Romo is no longer a spring chicken. Despite his weird knee tendencies, he’s also been a pretty strong beacon of health. Effective once again this season, the Twins should covet his presence in the clubhouse next year. Romo has a great personality and brought a level of excitement to the mound. There’s significant strikeout stuff on the back of a sweeping slider, and fortifying the relief corps a bit further this winter would be ideal.

The Come Up and Buy in for Odorizzi

Needing a starting pitcher, the Minnesota Twins front office send minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Palacios had some hype but was never a top prospect, while Odorizzi had been largely mediocre and was set to turn 28. It’s hard not to see more upside in a big-league starter under team control, but this leap forward has been immense for the former Tampa starter.

Odorizzi was often chided for his efforts by Twins fans last season. He posted a 4.49 ERA backed by a 4.20 FIP. The 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were right in line with career norms. On a bad team he was hardly a large issue and generally pitched better than the surface level numbers suggested. In 2019 he’s gone gangbusters though, and he’s made his first All Star game to show for it.

Cooling off some over the last few weeks, Odorizzi still owns a 2.73 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 85.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP suggest a bit more regression could be coming, but there’s a visible change that’s been made by the pitcher Minnesota trots out as their number two starter. Having been a low 90’s guy his whole big-league career, Odorizzi has added two mph of velocity under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and is now averaging 93.1 mph on the pitch this season. Not only is he throwing harder, but Odorizzi has shifted his repertoire to flip a career high number of sinkers, taking away from both his cutter and splitter.

This new version of Odorizzi is giving up a career high percentage of hard-hit balls, but he’s missing bats at record marks as well. The 12.4% whiff rate is a new high-water mark, while his contact rate is down to just 74.3% and the zone contact rate stands under 80% (78.5%) for the first time in his career. A slight jump in hard hit rate could be explainable through the increased velocity, but even still with that development, missing more barrels is the key component here.

Over the course of his career Odorizzi has averaged 1.2 HR/9 and has never been below the 1.0 mark. Through his first 16 starts he’s allowed just eight homers and is at 0.8 HR/9 on the season. Shedding hits and walks as well, the 1.074 WHIP stands out on its own. Having been integrated into the Twins system a year ago, and now working with a pitching thinktank that’s been overhauled, he’s reaping the rewards.

Next season Odorizzi will find himself on the open market for the first time in his career. The Twins have a couple of holes in their rotation that they’ll need to commit arms to. We don’t yet know how the club will navigate the trade market but extending a guy they already have in house may certainly make some sense.

Last season Jake Odorizzi was getting his feet wet with Minnesota and simply going through the motions he had always practiced to compete. This season he’s been given a few new tools that have taken his game to the next level and everyone involved has benefitted from it.

Odorizzi Confirming What’s Always Been

Prior to the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins acquired Jake Odorizzi in exchange for Jermaine Palacios. At the time, Palacios was a second or third tier prospect that had some internal fanfare. Swapping him for a big-league starter was a no-brainer though. Jake’s first season with the Twins was mostly mediocre, but there was reason to believe he was better than the numbers.

Across 32 starts a season ago Odorizzi owned a 4.49 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and a 3.8 BB/9. He dropped his home run rate significantly, and while the WHIP was a career worst, a 4.20 FIP suggested a bit more was in the tank. Fast forward to where we are today and Odorizzi owns a league best 1.96 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. His 226 ERA+ leads the league and he has all the makings of a Cy Young candidate.

In terms of increased production, nothing has substantially jumped off the page. The step forward has been the culmination of tweaks made across the board. Jake now owns a strikeout rate of 28%, a 6% increase over his 2018 mark. The walks are down while both the homers and hits have tailed off as well. If there’s something substantial to note, it’s the incredible 83.6% strand rate.

Batted ball profiles suggest that hitters are producing the same type of contact against the former Rays starter. Hard hit rates are static over the past two years, and trajectories are also all in line. The difference in induced contact likely comes in the form of velocity and offering. Odorizzi has added 2 mph to his average fastball, and the 11% curveball usage is over double the rate that it’s been since any point following 2013.

You’d have been hard pressed to see comments with a positive tone regarding many of Odorizzi’s starts a season ago. Despite the mediocre results, and a bit better in terms of peripherals, there wasn’t much excitement about the possibility of a 2019 rebound. Today we’re in a place that Odorizzi is often looked upon as a certainty when toeing the rubber, and the results have followed. It’s hard not to be happy about the reality that the changes haven’t been dramatic.

If there’s an extension candidate in the Twins rotation, then Odorizzi is it. Still just 29 years old, he should have more than a few years of high-level production still ahead of him. Knowing Minnesota has a few rotation holes to fill for the year ahead, Odorizzi slotting in as one of the guarantees would be a welcomed presence. Unfortunately, by waiting through this season Minnesota will have to deal with an inflated price tag. At the end of the day though, the Twins aren’t hurting for cash flow and wrapping up a starter this good is something they should jump at.

Derek Falvey and Wes Johnson have helped to overhaul the Twins pitching process, and the infrastructure set up throughout the system makes it a sustainable solution for years to come.

A Weekend of Foreshadowing in Minnesota?

In what equates to the smallest of sample sizes, the Minnesota Twins thumped the Cleveland Indians all over the diamond to begin the 2019 season. Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Martin Perez baffled Tribe hitters, and the home team looked like one worthy of competing in the AL Central division. Sure, this Terry Francona lineup was watered down in almost every way imaginable, but that’s really the backbone of this argument isn’t it?

Through his team’s first three games, Francona has needed to trout out Eric Stamets, Max Moroff, and Jordan Luplow for meaningful at bats. Brad Miller started at second base despite being inked to a deal just a week ago, and Tyler Naquin struck out in six of his seven at bats. 23-year-old Jake Bauers is the starting left fielder after being moved on from by the Rays, and Roberto Perez looked as much like Drew Butera behind the plate as he did standing in front of it.

Sure, Francisco Lindor is not in this current lineup, and Jose Ramirez is still probably shaking off some lingering effects caused by a near-serious injury. All offseason though, the talk of this team surrounded the possibility of dealing one or both of Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, which only further highlights the notion of pitching and not much else. Lindor and Ramirez are truly an elite tandem for the Indians, but can they be expected to top what amounted to career years a season ago? Even if they do, with a watered-down sum of parts, will it matter for Cleveland?

We are nowhere near a point that conclusions can be made regarding the Twins, Indians, or the division. This small of a sample size only gives us numbers that are fun to illogically dream upon. The opening that was wondered about over the offseason appears to at least be a potential reality as the games begin to matter. The Twins did what they needed to in taking a series at home from the reigning division winner. They did so by executing in multiple facets of the action, and it was a ball being put in play away from a sweep.

For both clubs, we’ll need to at least head into June before any real conclusions can be drawn. Rocco Baldelli will continue to have his team prepared on a game-by-game basis until that point, but you can bet the goal will also be to put distance between themselves and the club that did little to stay on top. Ownership for the Indians has publicly stated that players like Lindor may not be affordable for the long haul, and we’ve already seen them fail to supplement for an offseason. Further lack of fan interest and an emergence from this Twins club should continue to spell disaster for the 2016 runner up, and in Twins Territory that’s all we can hope for.

It certainly helps that the bottom trio of divisional opponents should spend the year in the doldrums, but the reality is that Minnesota was always going to need to knock off Cleveland for any real run of significance. Doing so out of the gate is something to build upon, and they’ll have plenty more opportunity to do so as the year progresses.

Odorizzi Shows Importance of Warmth

Thus far the Minnesota Twins have played just 12 games during the 2018 Major League Baseball season. When they have played, they've been met with suboptimal weather conditions more often than not. Playing in 80 degree heat against the Cleveland Indians down in Puerto Rico, Jake Odorizzi may have unintentionally displayed just how much of an effect the weather has on certain aspects of the game.

Over the course of his career, Odorizzi has hardly been the definition of an efficient pitcher. He's never reached the 200 inning plateau and there are no complete games on his big league resume. For a guy who's walked his fair share of batters over the course of his career, 2017 saw that category swell quite a bit. In his first handful of turns with the Twins, things hadn't slowed down in that category either. Then Jake was given the gift of warmth.

Against the Indians, Odorizzi threw 97 pitches across 5.0 IP and gave up four runs on six hits. Maybe most importantly, he walked just one batter while striking out six. The line looks worse than the outing was. Odorizzi served up a hanging curveball to Francisco Lindor on a 3-2 count at a point in which the ball should've been thrown nowhere near the strike zone. He then was teed off on by Jose Ramirez, and that should've ended his night. Left in a batter too long, Michael Brantley also got a solo shot in off the Twins starter.

Coming off two rocky starts though, Odorizzi had to like where his command was while pitching in Hiram Bithorn stadium. Despite having watched the game, I'm not able to visually break down the performance as the Puerto Rican venue isn't set up with Statcast necessities allowing the transmission of data to Baseball Savant. Even while offering strikes at a 60% clip, the former Rays pitcher found himself avoiding three ball counts, entering just four prior to Lindor's home run. Two strikes were a common theme, and being ahead of hitters was a place he routinely was able to work from.

There's no benefit to Odorizzi, or his new teammate Lance Lynn, suggesting that their slow starts have been due to the weather. While every player has to deal with it, gripping a Major League Baseball is a tough ask from the mound when each pill is practically frozen. Combining that with the inability to get and stay warm throughout an outing makes an already difficult task one that seems like an uphill battle.

Minnesota gave up very little to acquire Odorizzi, but that doesn't change the impact they need him to have on their starting rotation. No matter what the weather looks like, Jake is going to need to improve on a process that's yielded a 5.25 FIP thus far in 2018. Coming off a 5.43 FIP a year ago with an already solid defense behind him, it was going to be more on his pitching ability to turn things around than it would be the other teammates around him. With his back injury supposedly behind him, the hope is that the Twins starter can get back to the days of walking sub-3.0 per nine and pushing the FIP back below 4.00.

With the weather eventually (we hope) heating up here in Minnesota as well as across the country, we should expect to see more good than bad from Odorizzi going forward. The expectation would be that Puerto Rico is providing ideal weather conditions, and starts like the one we saw against the Indians represent more of the norm than the outlier. The flip side to the equation is that as the weather improves, so too do the opportunities for hitters. The ball flies further and they too are able to get in a better rhythm. For now Odorizzi has to keep working on the process, and know that as surrounding factors improve, so to will the results.

The Guys Carrying the Twins

We've made it, it's finally here, the last day without meaningful baseball for the next six months has arrived. On March 29th, the Minnesota Twins will kick off the 2018 Major League Baseball season with Jake Odorizzi toeing the rubber against Dylan Bundy and the Baltimore Orioles. Having offered some opinions on the league-wide awards, I figured now would be a good time to dive into my predictions for the hometown club.

Going into the year, expectations are relatively high for Paul Molitor's group. They're coming off a Postseason berth and have the advantage of playing in a weak division. Although the gap may not yet have been closed on the Cleveland Indians, there's no argument that it hasn't been made substantially smaller (at least on paper). If the Twins are going to make noise in the Central, American League, and across Major League Baseball as a whole this year, these are the guys who will be a big part of the process.

Team MVP- Miguel Sano

Despite being the reigning MVP, and entering a contract year, I think Sano overtakes Brian Dozier. Coming off an offseason that saw plenty of ups and downs, the third basemen appears all system go. There's no suspension looming, and the rod inserted into his leg doesn't appear to be holding him back in the slightest. Although the numbers don't mean much, Sano turned in an impressive spring, and they bat is absolutely going to play. I'd bet heavily on this being the first 30 home run season of his career, and pushing towards 50 is hardly out of the question if he can stay healthy. Twins fans have been waiting for his emergence since being a teenager, and Miguel Sano is finally ready to explode.

Pitcher of the Year- Jake Odorizzi

A season ago, Orodizzi posted the worst ERA of his career, was above 5.00 FIP for the first time, and walked a career worst 3.8 batters per nine. Why in the world would he be the best Twins pitcher at 28 years old? Well, I think there's plenty to be made of the back injury that he pitched through for the bulk of the season. Odorizzi isn't going to get much of a defensive boost as he already played in front of a good one with the Rays. I do believe he has middle-of-the-rotation stuff however, and the floor is very high with him. Jose Berrios has the ability to be a better pitcher than Odorizzi, but there's a decent level of volatility there as well.

Rookie of the Year- Mitch Garver

After finally making his debut in September 2017, I believed that Mitch Garver was deserving of a promotion much earlier. He absolutely raked at Triple-A Rochester, and it's his bat that brings intrigue behind the dish. Pairing with Jason Castro, Paul Molitor (won't but) should platoon his two backstops. Garver can dominate left-handed pitching, and he's more than capable behind the plate. He'll throw out his fair share of would be base stealers, and I'd expect him to be a bright spot for Minnesota. Deviating away from the veteran backstop that offers little in terms of offensive upside, Garver has the talent to be a true threat on his own.

Most Improved- Max Kepler

Last season saw the emergence of Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and even Jorge Polanco down the stretch. Miguel Sano has been a known commodity for a bit, even if I believe there's more in the tank. This season though, I think we see Max Kepler really begin to come into his own. For a while I've been of the belief that Kepler could be cut from a similar cloth as Christian Yelich. A good defender with adequate speed that has a real ability at the plate. Thus far Kepler has struggled with lefties, and he's yet to really set himself in the batters box. Hitting the 20 home run plateau for the first time is a good bet, and it's really only the tip of his offensive ice berg.

Rotation Overhaul In Overdrive

With the news of the Minnesota Twins signing Lance Lynn to a one-year, $12 million deal today, the overhaul of the starting rotation going into 2018 is complete. Despite the big fish of the offseason being Yu Darvish, it's hard not to see the avenue that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took as equally impressive. Coming off a Wild Card appearance, Paul Molitor's club has something it hasn't in years: a rotation worthy of praise.

Going into the winter, Minnesota's front office new that the area of focus needed to be starting pitching. Coming off a season in which 16 different pitchers made starts (a club record), and 36 different arms were used, getting more meaningful innings from the jump was a necessity. Although the crop of free agents left something to be desired, Darvish was there at the top and he had some quality options lined up behind him. You can fault the Twins for not matching Chicago's six-year deal, but it may not have mattered anyways. In the end, for a team desiring depth, this outcome almost seems better.

When the Twins leave Fort Myers at the end of March, their starting rotation will feature Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. Ervin Santana is due back sometime in April or May, and the group at the top is backed by names such as Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Zack Littell. Solely by the letters on the backs of the jerseys, that group is much stronger than one featuring options such as Tepesch, Melville, and Wilk. What's more intriguing though, are the numbers that names bring with them.

In Odorizzi and Lynn, Minnesota has added two players capable of striking out batters at an 8.0 K/9 clip or better. A season ago, only Jose Berrios entered that territory, and the Twins haven't had two pitchers best that mark in a season since 2006 (Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano). Last season, 12 of the Twins 16 starters took the ball a combined 54 times to compile a -0.2 fWAR. Despite a down year for Odorizzi (0.1 fWAR in 2017), he's consistently earned around a 2.0 fWAR on an annual basis. In his first year back from Tommy John surgery, Lynn posted a 1.4 mark. Both should help to significantly raise the water level as a whole for the staff, which is really what this boils down to.

Talking yourself out of missing on Darvish is foolish, but there's also a level of realism to it. While Yu is a bonafide ace, he can only take the ball once every five days. Minnesota was in a place where Kyle Gibson would be relied upon too much, and Phil Hughes needed to be counted on as well. In adding two arms, the Twins push the latter out completely, and allow the former to be bolstered by the strong depth on the farm behind him. By gaining a 40% improvement in the rotation, the Twins effectively overhauled their greatest weakness, and dare I say, turned it into a strength.

It'd be relatively silly to suggest that Lynn, Odorizzi, or even Michael Pineda (if and when he returns healthy) are going to make the Scherzer's or Kershaw's of the world blush. For an organization that's been starved to figure out who can be relied upon for multiple turns in the rotation on a yearly basis for over a decade though, you've done more than alright. Minnesota's blueprint when attacking the rotation was to grab talent that could help, and let what was already on board fall in line. By executing it this way, there should be competitive and reliable outings on a daily basis, and the depth is now a luxury as opposed to a necessity.

Given what Falvey and Levine have done to Molitor's starting staff, and what Minnesota already had going for it, you'd be hard-pressed to argue that this team isn't going places. A strong lineup and good defense is now supplemented be a talented pitching staff (both starters and relievers) and that should put not only the Cleveland Indians, but the rest of the American League, on notice.

Handicapping The Twins Rotation

The Minnesota Twins are set to kick of spring training action with their first exhibition against the University of Minnesota on Thursday February 22. Following Stephen Gonsalves' first pitch in that tilt, the club will then play a full month's slate of games before embarking on Target Field. There's some certainties in the rotation, but there's some serious question marks too.

Before digging into some of the more uncertain options, it makes some semblance of sense to start with what we know. Right now, there's two locks, and they include:

Jose Berrios RHP

In line to get his first Opening Day start of his career, Berrios will serve as the Twins de facto ace while Ervin Santana is on the shelf. Coming off what was nearly a full year at the big league level, the Puerto Rican shined. His 3.89 ERA was in line with the 3.84 FIP. His 8.6 K/9 was a breath of fresh air for the Twins, and the 3.0 BB/9 was hardly detrimental. There's room for growth here, and expecting Berrios to push the ceiling of a true number two starter is hardly a bat bet.

Jake Odorizzi RHP

After being acquired for Jermaine Palacios, Odorizzi immediately slots in among the Twins top three pitchers. A strong middle-of-the-rotation arm, there's reason to believe he's much better than his 2017 output. Even with a career worst 5.43 FIP, he kept the ERA in check at 4.14. Home runs have been an issue on a three year trend, but there's a strike out pitcher here that is a few small tweaks away from taking the next step.

After those two guys, the Opening Day rotation gets murkier. Given the Twins schedule, there's opportunity to skip a 5th arm and get more work in for the top dogs. If they do decide to round out the group and go with five hurlers as long as Santana is sidelined, the list is long and plentiful.

Kyle Gibson RHP

Back on a one-yea, $4.2 million arbitration deal, Gibson is probably the next closest thing to a lock. While there was a significant period in 2017 where he looked like a non-tender candidate, it was his performance down the stretch that played a large part in getting the Twins to the Postseason. From July 16 on, he posted a 3.76 ERA and .701 OPS against. Across his final eight starts of the year, Gibson owned a 2.92 ERA and .684 OPS against. It's hard to imagine Kyle living up to the hype generated as a 1st round pick in 2009, but if he can replicate his late season surge, he'll be more than valuable for Paul Molitor.

OD Rotation Likelihood: 99%

Adalberto Mejia LHP

His first extended taste in the big leagues had a significant amount of ups and downs for the 24 year old. After being a top-100 prospect, Mejia was seen as a nice get for Minnesota from the San Francisco Giants. His 4.50 ERA in 2017 is hardly anything to write home about, but he showed flashes of a durable starter with the potential to miss bats. In 2018, decreasing the 4.0 BB/9 will be huge, and should play a large part in helping to extend his outings as a whole (avg start was just 4.2 IP in 2017).

OD Rotation Likelihood: 75%

Phil Hughes RHP

There's a good deal of reasons as to why Phil Hughes is the leader in the clubhouse for the 5th and final rotation spot, 26 million to be exact. Minnesota is still on the hook for two-years and $26 million thanks to the extension Terry Ryan prematurely handed the former Yankees pitcher. Hughes was great in year one for Minnesota, and serviceable in year two. Since then, he's made a combined 20 starts over the past two seasons, and owns a 5.91 ERA. The walk rate has doubled (although is still solid), and injuries have mounted. Coming back from another surgery in relation to his Thoracic Outlet procedures, he'll have to prove he's healthy. If he can make it through spring training with some semblance of effectiveness, he should get the final nod. There's also a chance he begins the season on the DL.

OD Rotation Likelihood: 50%

Anibal Sanchez RHP

Given a current 40 man spot and no other assurances, Sanchez's deal is interesting. He's only guaranteed $2.5 million if he makes the club, and can earn up to double that. The 2.57 ERA leading Detroit Tiger from 2013 is a far cry from the pitcher he's been the past three seasons. With a ballooning ERA (5.67) and a HR/9 that surpassed the 2.0 mark a season ago, the Twins have to make some changes. Working down in the zone is an area that seems of benefit to the former Tigers, and if the Twins think they've unlocked something while in Fort Myers, he could squeak his way in.

OD Rotation Likelihood: 20%

Aaron Slegers RHP

Making his MLB debut on August 17th against the Indians, Slegers turned in a quality start against the division winning Cleveland Indians. From there, he put up a clunker in St. Pete, and fizzled in relief against the Blue Jays. His 2017 ended with an outing somewhat in the middle, giving up three runs across 4.1 IP against the Tigers. At Triple-A last year, a 3.40 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 looked like numbers of a guy ready for a new challenge. Now with the goosebumps out of the way, Slegers looks like a decent, strong floor, fallback option for the Twins.

OD Rotation Likelihood: 10%

Stephen Gonsalves LHP

For the second straight season, Gonsalves is seen as a top-100 prospect across baseball, and viewed by many as the Twins best pitcher on the farm. Spending another half season at Double-A Chattanooga, he posted a .268 ERA across 87.1 IP. The 9.9 K/9 was a bit down from his 2016 total, but he halved his 4.5 BB/9 all the way down to 2.4 BB/9. The knock continues to be a third pitch, but Gonsalves has a good feel for the fastball and changeup. Minnesota will probably try to slow-play him a bit at Triple-A, and continued command development will only push his ceiling higher.

OD Rotation Likelihood: 5%

Fernando Romero RHP

As a new 23 year-old, Romero has officially been listed on his first top-100 prospect lists. He's been the recipient of a significant amount of praise over the past season and a half, and the national scene has taken notice with another strong year. Hitting Double-A for a full season, his 125.0 IP turned into a 3.53 ERA and an 8.6 K/9. Walks did rise back above the 3.0 per 9 mark, which is something he controlled better in 2016. The ceiling is a potential ace with velocity topping out near triple digits. There's also some level of concern that Romero may end up being just a good reliever, which is hopefully at least a few years from becoming a reality. Like Gonsalves, Romero would need a handful of things to break in his favor this spring, but a nice showing would set up a promising Triple-A tour.

OD Rotation Likelihood: 1%

One Day Makes Twins Difference

Over the weekend, Minnesota Twins fans felt the full gambit of emotions. After announcing that Anibal Sanchez had been given a major league deal, frustration was felt in full force. A bounce-back candidate that has ugly numbers of late wasn't going to gain much confidence for a revamped starting rotation. Then, a day later, Jake Odorrizi was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays and the tide felt like it had turned. Putting a bow on the Minnesota offseason, it's hard not to like where this team is headed.

Going into the offseason, the Twins had one focus in hopes of returning to Postseason play, fix the pitching. The 4.60 team ERA in 2017 came in 19th among MLB clubs, and the 7.31 K/9 was better than only the Texas Rangers. Both in the rotation and the pen, Paul Molitor's club needed better names and the ability to miss more bats. From the jump, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine knew this was where the focus had to be, and it appeared they had a plan to execute on.

Signing Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke, the Twins bring in two arms with little risk and a relatively high upside. Rodney is an experience, but his 10.6 K/9 is an asset, and he allows arms like Trevor Hildenberger to be deployed outside of the 9th inning. Duke isn't just a LOOGY, and he too is a punchout pitcher when healthy. There's little arguing that Addison Reed was the pen headliner this winter however. After signing a 2yr/$16.75M deal with Minnesota, Falvey and Levine had somehow landed one of the premier options on what looked like a budget deal. Yet to hit 30, Reed owns a career 9.5 K/9 and a 2/3 BB/9 that makes him arguably the best arm in Minnesota's relief corps.

While it's hard to overstate the importance of the three relief acquisitions on their own merits, it's also big to note what their inclusion does for Paul Molitor as a whole. Instead of rounding out the pen with toss in names, the Twins can now rely on arms like Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Ryan Pressly as complimentary pieces. Again, with the goal being a raised water level across the board, the front office accomplished that to a T in the pen.

From the outset of the winter Minnesota was tied to starter Yu Darvish. Given all of the factors, a union of the two sides made an immeasurable amount of sense from the home town perspective. Unfortunately, Darvish chose to sign with the Chicago Cubs in the end. Falvey and Levine may have ruled themselves out by failing to match the Cubs offer, but the likelihood always remained that the former Rangers ace wanted a bigger market than the up and coming Twins. While a tough blow for sure, there's no sense of settling either.

With Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, and Jake Arrieta all having their warts, the remaining top tier free agents left a decent bit to be desired. Draft pick compensation was tied to each of them, and the dollar ask would likely not be in the line with the expected level of production. Although I'll always be of the stance that you should spend from an unlimited cash pool as opposed to dealing from a limited talent pool in acquiring players, Minnesota found a way to make things look better the opposite way.

Netting Jake Odorizzi from the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins gave up little more than a flier middle infielder. Jermaine Palacios went on a tear to start the 2017 season at Cedar Rapids, but struggled mightily as a 20 year-old at High-A Fort Myers. Odorizzi is a soon-to-be 28 year-old under team control for two more years, and immediately slots in among Minnesota's top three. Despite tallying his worst season as a pro in 2017, the numbers still equated to a 4.14 ERA and an 8.0 K/9. For the former Rays hurler, a 5.14 FIP and 3.8 BB/9 leave plenty of room for growth. His HR/9 rate spiked to 1.9 a season ago, and there's been plenty made about the idea that getting down in the zone could be a key to expanded success.

Not the headliner that Odorizzi is for Minnesota, Anibal Sanchez being brought in as a depth signing looks much better than when it was originally reported. I still think it's odd the deal needed to be of the MLB sort, guaranteeing a current 40 man roster spot despite it being uncertain that he'll make the opening day roster. The ERA there is awful, but the 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are great marks. Sanchez posted a 2.52 FIP in his first two seasons with the Tigers, and then ballooned to a 5.01 mark the past three years. After never allowing home runs, he's gotten worse the last three seasons going from 1.7 to 1.8 to 2.2 HR/9. If Falvey saw a correctable adjustment to keep the ball in the park, that contract could end up being a steal for the Twins.

As with the bullpen, the goal in the rotation was to raise the overall water level. Now with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Ervin Santana locked in as the top three, Minnesota has an enhanced level of depth to fill out the back end. Nothing is guaranteed for Adalberto Mejia, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, or Sanchez in terms of a rotation spot. They'll all be pushed by the likes of Stephen Gonsalves, Fernado Romero, Zack Littell, and Dietrich Enns. For a club that used way too many arms, and saw a vast level of ineffectiveness at times a season ago, the situation as a whole looks much better entering 2018.

Given the current roster construction, I'd imagine the Twins are done adding arms. They probably have room for a bat on a minor league deal, and 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson has been suggesting that could be Mike Napoli for weeks now. The Rays recently DFA'd Corey Dickerson, and he'd be a huge addition for Minnesota as well. Regardless, if another move is coming, it's probably a less noteworthy offensive addition.

With the dust now settled, it's hard to look back on the offseason with any sort of displeasure. There was one ace out there, and the Twins chance was always a long shot. They added significant pitching in the bullpen, grabbed a good arm for the rotation, and added a couple of fliers along the way. While the division, including the Cleveland Indians, got worse, Minnesota retained it's talent and added pieces. The American League is going to be tough in 2018, with teams like the Yankees an Angels both getting better. For Minnesota, the Postseason may have to come through their own division, and you have to like how they positioned themselves for this season and beyond.