The Oswaldo Arcia Era Ends For Twins

Following their 46th loss of the season, Paul Molitor informed reported that the Minnesota Twins would be welcoming Danny Santana back after a rehab assignment. That move was also met with the announcement that Minnesota would designate Oswaldo Arcia for assignment, his time with the Twins has come to an end. It might be a mercy rule for both sides however, as both parties deserved better.

For the Twins, Arcia was signed as an amateur free agent back in 2007. He landed on prospect lists prior to the 2013 season, and saw his highest ranking at 41st on Baseball America's list. A hulking slugger, he was never expected to play the field well, but the belief was that his back would make up for his defensive deficiencies. In part that happened for the Twins, but not significantly enough for a guy who has been worth -31 DRS across nearly 2,000 major league innings.

Over the course of his Twins career, Arcia has been worth a combined -0.5 fWAR. He hit 40 homers and ripped 37 doubles. His career .240/.303/.429 slash line was reflective of a guy that faded from 34 homers across his first two seasons. Summarizing his time with the Twins, Minnesota would be hard pressed to put a word other than underwhelming on it.

For Arcia, the story is similar, his time having to interact with the Twins has to feel underwhelming as well. After putting up 14 and 20 home runs in his first two seasons respectively, the Twins began their bungling of Arcia's development a season ago. After just 19 games, and 58 at bats, Minnesota determined that it had seen enough. Despite a career his .276 average, Arcia's .718 OPS was a career low. He had hit just two homers, and those longballs represented his lone extra base hits. From a power threat, Minnesota expected more.

Upon being relegated to Triple-A, the notion was that Arcia had to prove it or risk spending the rest of the year in Rochester. He went on a torrid home run stretch for a brief period, but unfortunately his final slash line rested at .199/.257/.372 across 79 Triple-A contests. He hit just 12 homers on the season, and was never a realistic option for the Twins during a postseason push.

To start 2016, Arcia found himself on the 25 man, in part because Minnesota wasn't yet at a point ready to cut ties. The notion that he was in DFA purgatory played out through the season's first third. In 66 games, he was given just 27 starts, and found action in a whopping 32. His 103 at bats produced a lackluster .214/.289/.369 slash line and his defense remained poor. The results were underwhelming, but so were the opportunities.

At this point, both sides deserve something better than what they have given each other. Arcia has been one of the most under-developed and poorly used Twins in the past two seasons. When given opportunities however few and far between though, he's done little to mark that reality more of a focus. Right now, the best thing is for a separation of the two.

That scenario should be expected to play out. Still just 25 years old, Arcia is the kind of guy that plenty of big league teams will line up to take a flier on. In fact, a fit could come within the Twins division. With the Detroit Tigers recently losing J.D. Martinez, a poor fielder and good slugger in his own right, Arcia fits the profile on a much lesser scale. In fact, the Tigers might be able to see a former prospect of their own in the failed Twin.

Back in 2013, Avisail Garcia found himself on Baseball America's top 100 list, at number 74, behind Arcia. Once nicknamed "Minny Miggy," Garcia has never really been more than just a guy. Now playing with the White Sox, his career .695 OPS lags behind the .732 of Arcia's. Garcia has never matched Oswaldo's home run numbers, and Detroit was willing to give their former failed prospect 53 games worth of work from 2012-13. The Tigers could do a lot worse than a quick flier on someone they have seen plenty of over the past four years.

Regardless of where Oswaldo Arcia winds up, he shouldn't be expected to be David Ortiz 2.0 for the Twins. Although he won't spurn them to that level, Minnesota shouldn't find themselves off the hook either. They operated with a poor plan in regards to the Venezuelan, and what could have been will likely remain a question for a while.

If there's one good thing that comes out of this for the Twins, it's that the commitment to the kids seems to have taken a hold. Both Max Kepler and Byron Buxton remain on the big league roster. Rather than being sent back to Triple-A, the organization realizes it's time for them to sink or swim, and allowing them to figure it out against the highest level of competition is a must.

Twins Have An Oswaldo Arcia Sized Problem

Coming into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, Oswaldo Arcia was already on the outs with the Minnesota Twins. He was out of options and Minnesota seemed to be squeezing him out of their plans. With Miguel Sano heading to the outfield and Byung Ho Park taking over designated hitter at bats, playing time would be hard to come by. That narrative couldn't be more true over one-third of the way through the season.

Through June 15, Oswaldo Arcia has gotten into just 32 games for the Twins. He's totaled 103 at bats, and he's drawn just 27 starts. The 25 year-old Venezuelan owns a .214/.289/.369 slash line, and his .658 OPS is the lowest total of his four-year major league career. What's worth wondering however, is what to make of it all?

Sure, Arcia's numbers at the plate leave something to be desired. However, he's started back to back games just 11 times in 64 games for Minnesota. Since May 15, he's made just seven starts through 27 games despite the struggles of teammate Byung Ho Park. To summarize the situation, his opportunities, when they've been present, have been few and far between. At the end of the day though, that's kind of how a guy operating without options experiences the big leagues.

So, what do the Twins do with Arcia? He's posted a positive fWAR just once over the past four seasons, and that was a 0.9 mark in 2014. He's been worth -0.5 fWAR thus far in 2016, and his defensive ability (or lack thereof) is always going to be a detriment. In 2016, Arcia has posted a -4 DRS thus far. In his two most complete MLB seasons (2013/14), Arcia owned -16 and -9 DRS marks respectively. An offensive asset more in thought than reality, and a defensive liability, the Twins decision making time is looming.

That reality is only being compounded as Eddie Rosario is currently tearing up Triple-A. Sure, Rosario still isn't walking hardly at all, and his plate approach leaves an incredible amount to be desired at the big league level. Looking at what they've both put forth for the Twins however, it's a tough argument to suggest Rosario doesn't bring more to the table. Complicating things however, is that Rosario shouldn't come up to overtake Arcia's role.

As things stand, only Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should be considered realistic cogs of the Twins future outfield. Both have tremendous upside and need to be given the duration of the 2016 season to get acclimated to the level Minnesota needs them to compete at. Despite both of their struggles, neither has anything left to learn at Triple-A. Swapping either player with Rosario would be a tremendous gaffe of the Twins end, and one that should remain out of the equation.

Whether Minnesota is open to switching out Arcia for Rosario or not remains to be seen. The latter could rotate playing time with Kepler and would almost assuredly find himself in the field more often than Arcia has. A summer trade of breakout minor league signee Robbie Grossman could open up a spot as well. Regardless of what shuffle takes place, it appears Arcia should likely be the one to go.

There's less than a zero percent chance that a major league team would put a waiver claim in on Oswaldo Arcia. He's a 25 year old power hitter that some organization is going to view as a prospect they can unlock. It may very well happen, and it would be unfortunate for the Twins to see it take place. However, much like Grossman, sometimes those situations just need to play out.

Whether it's ideal or not, sometimes players just find themselves when presented a different set of circumstances. Minnesota seems to have hit the proverbial jackpot with Robbie Grossman, and Oswaldo Arcia affording another organization that opportunity isn't a death sentence. If time is up for Arcia in Minnesota, I think it's ok to come to grips with that being the reality.

How Do You Fix The Twins?

With the Twins having 33 games under their belt, the club has won just eight contests. They've been swept in a series seven times thus far, and the reality of the situation has gone from dire to laughable. While I don't contend that either Paul Molitor or Terry Ryan are the best for the organization going forward, a change there doesn't handle the issues at present. So, how do you fix the Twins?

In an attempt to salvage the most out of the 2016 season, and put a best foot forward for 2017, here's the strategy I'm going with sooner rather than later.

Move 1: Demote Eddie Rosario

I've been telling you this would happen since way back in February. My comments on Eddie Rosario have generally been met with the question as to why I "dislike him." That really couldn't be further from the truth. Rosario was my "Danny Santana" pick in 2015. He was the early call up who was going to force his way into the lineup and stick. It happened, but what also became apparent was that it wasn't sustainable.

Some have tried to categorize Rosario as a "bad ball hitter" but really, he isn't that. He's swung and missed over 19% of the time in 2016, and has chased pitches outside of the zone a staggering 40.6% of the time. His 67.7% contact rate is in line with a guy that hits a lot of balls out of the park. but that's not Rosario's game either. He saw an inflated OPS a season ago due to his MLB leading 15 triples, and that shouldn't have been expected to be repeated. Now also compounding problems is that Rosario has posted a negative Defensive Runs Saved metric and isn't operating as an asset in the outfield.

He's a guy who has long been talked about being bored on the farm. That may be fair, but his head isn't on straight, and he isn't above having to work at being good at this game. He needs to go down and rework his approach, while also figuring out who he wants to be between his ears.

Move 2: Start Oswaldo Arcia, then trade him

Fresh off of his 25th birthday, Oswaldo Arcia is still a part of the crop of youth the Twins employ. Despite being yanked around the last few seasons, and in part because of his lack of production, he's stuck with the Twins due to being out of options. Now drawing more regular starts due to Eddie Rosario's struggles, Arcia should be finding himself in the lineup every day.

Arcia is always going to struggle versus lefties, and his OPS in 2016 is nearly 70 points higher off of righties with all of his four homers coming against those pitchers. He can hit for power though, and despite facing shifts quite often at the plate, he's a capable power bat for a good club. He's just two seasons removed from being worth nearly 1.0 fWAR and remaining under team control until 2020 works to his value as well.

You probably aren't going to get a huge return for him, but opening up some room for Move 3 to happen makes sense.

Move 3: Promote Byron Buxton and Max Kepler

It wasn't expected that Bryon Buxton would struggle so mightily to start off 2016, and it wasn't hoped that Max Kepler would be called up to be to poorly mismanaged by Paul Molitor. That said, both guys are beginning to force the Twins hand, and removing Rosario and Arcia from the picture could help to accommodate that.

Over his last 12 games, Buxton is slashing .374/.423/.625. He's hitting for gap power, as well as putting the ball over the fence, and most importantly, his strikeout rates are reduced below 20%. Now finally getting consistent at bats (something Molitor stunted him of), Kepler is also heating up in Rochester slashing .324/.425/.529 across his last nine. Bring them up together, and make them your starting outfield along with Miguel Sano.

In this scenario, both Buxton and Kepler are able to work towards being cornerstones of the future, while Sano is allowed to continue his transition. While much is made about Sano defensively, he's far from an issue when you look at the landscape of power bats playing right field (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz...all are negative defenders). Danny Santana then returns to his super utility role that he's best suited for, and you have the largest amount of talent on the field at one time.

Note that this is move three. I'd look to see what can be done about at least move one or two before going here. I think that both Buxton and Kepler stand to benefit from playing at Rochester at least until early June.

Move 4: Trade Jorge Polanco

This move has been complicated in how Paul Molitor has used Polanco since Eduardo Escobar has landed on the disabled list. Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level.

Polanco has not played shortstop at all, at any level, in 2016. He's probably not capable of playing the role at the big league level due to his tendency for errors. That being said, the Twins have a second basemen in Brian Dozier (and no I'm not worried about his slow start). If you aren't going to see what Polanco has while the already struggling Escobar is hurt, then there's no place for him on the Twins roster.

It's pretty widely regarded that Polanco's bat is big league ready. His glove may not be, but playing at second should help to alleviate some of those concerns. I'd be shopping Polanco immediately and if a team would rather give you a decent haul for Brian Dozier, then sure go ahead and pursue that route. If both Polanco and Dozier are in the organization to begin 2017 however, the Twins may have fumbled an opportunity.

Move 5: Promote J.T. Chargois and Alex Meyer

This offseason, I was completely behind the idea of Terry Ryan standing somewhat pat on his pen. Sure, they weren't good a year ago, but it's also one of the organizations areas of strength. Fernando Abad looked like shrewd signing from the get go, and has been absolutely that. Glen Perkins put the Twins in a bind, but they weren't going to be in the market for a closer. What has compounded problems is the lack of follow through on what appeared to be the plan.

Coming into the year, and now 26 years old, the Twins still seem lost as to what Alex Meyer is. He was worked as a starter in Rochester and dominated. Then he was promoted, went unused, was thrown into a start, imploded, and was demoted. Rather than seeing some time in relief, where he appears destined to succeed, the Twins continue to jerk their return for Denard Span around. He should be up in the big league pen generating strikeouts at a 10+ K/9 pace and hoping the command issues stay as they were to start in Rochester (see nonexistent).

Along with Meyer, flame throwing reliever J.T. Chargois could be up helping the Twins. He was dominant to start 2016 with Chattanooga, and appeared to have earned the call. His 10.8 K/9 and 1.54 ERA as the Double-A closer were more than respectable. When healthy, Chargois has been nearly as good as they come in the Twins system. Instead, he was handed a ticket to Triple-A Rochester.

For a floundering team and struggling bullpen, the Twins saw fit to add guys like Pat Dean and Brandon Kintzler to the fold, despite having no real long term viability with the club.

At the end of the day, this club is playing horrible baseball right now. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who are actually bad, the Twins are a average to good collection of players, all playing well below their capabilities (spare Joe, Byung Ho, and one or two others). With the season where it is now, you don't throw in the towel, but if you aren't positioning for 2017 and working in some of the ones above, you're doing it wrong.

Twins Problems Are All Of Them

Here we sit, right around the end of the first month of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and the Minnesota Twins find themselves as cellar dwellers. Not only are they dead last in the AL Central, but they've found themselves there on account of everything going wrong, at almost always the right moments.

Coming off a season in which they weren't technically eliminated from playoff contention until the final week of the season, the Twins had high hopes for the year ahead. Instead of capitalizing on that in the early going, they've taken multiple steps backwards. A roster with youth, there's been odd decisions, the bullpen has been up and down, and the offense has been near non-existent. What it's really added up to is the Twins having as many problems as they could have possibly envisioned.

First and foremost is the offense. With a lineup that was rounded out using big bats, Paul Molitor's club was expected to hit balls over the fence. A realistic chance for 200 on the season, they appear destined to finish nowhere near that mark. Just 17 to date, the Twins aren't remotely close to where good home run hitting teams have been in previous seasons.

I've done (I believe) a very consistent job of keeping track of what I've coined the Twins Power Index. In measuring strikeouts, as they relate to home runs, Minnesota has often been left empty handed. Striking out per game, more than any other team in baseball not named the Houston Astros, the Twins home run totals have lagged behind. Only a couple of guys are seeing above an acceptable amount of pitches per strikeout, and the problem as a whole hasn't gotten better.

Against the Washington Nationals in D.C. Mollie's club struck out a ridiculous 38 times over the course of two games. I saw a Twins writer or two caution that the way of the K had fallen by the wayside as, they "hardly struck out at all over the last week," and that "the sky's not falling." In a vacuum, that's probably a true sentiment, but considering the power production expected to compliment those strikeouts has not change, the problem is only looming larger.

Then, because of the lack of offense, the Twins have done nothing for what has been a respectable (maybe a little less) pitching staff. In 19 games, Neil Allen's starters have thrown nine quality starts. Of those games, only three of them have been won by the Twins. In six of nine quality starts, Minnesota failed to score more than what amounts to no more than three runs over the course of six innings.

When Minnesota is scoring, they aren't holding leads either. Forget about Glen Perkins who's on the DL after a week one injury. Kevin Jepsen has looked every bit the regression candidate he was poised to be, and despite some decent outings from Trevor May, his command and prowess on the mound has eluded him almost an equal amount. The bullpen was positioned to be improved, if not avoid being a liability once again, should everything break right. Unfortunately, nothing has gone that way for Minnesota.

Rounding out the group of unfortunate-isms (sure, we'll go with it), is the direction this team has seemed to take through it all. With a roster probably one year ahead of real playoff contention, the youth was going to both sink and swim. What has happened however, is confusing roster moves that don't seem to mesh with each other whatsoever.

Early on in 2016, top prospect Max Kepler was given the call to Minnesota. He started just two of 13 games at one point with the Twins, and was given no regular time. The bulk of that was while Byron Buxton was struggling, and Eddie Rosario could get nothing going. Not only was his development being stunted by not playing, but Molitor had no better clue as to what he was capable of at this level.

It took nearly moving a mountain to get Oswaldo Arcia to draw some significant starts, and now the club appears to have opened a 40 man roster spot (and depleting a realistic third catcher in the process) for aging veteran David Murphy. Unlike Kepler, Arcia, or any host of other young players, there's no hurt to having Murphy come up and sit. In needing to sign a veteran retread just to get the oomph to make a roster move though, Terry Ryan should expect to face disdain.

UPDATE: Per Mike Berardino, the Twins did in fact open up the 40 man spot to call up David Murphy. They lost John Hicks in doing so, and Murphy walked away from the organization presumably to retire. That sequence as a whole is a massive dumpster fire and highlights a really poor lack of planning.

At the end of the day, it won't matter whether Jose Berrios joins the rotation, Buxton gets it going in Triple-A, or some combination of Alex Meyer and J.T. Chargois bolster the big league pen. Right now, the Twins are doing everything wrong between the lines, and the stuff taking place outside of them is following suit.

Molitor Should Be Making It Work In Minnesota

Just a handful of games into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and things were trending downwards big time for the Minnesota Twins. Starting 0-9, there was plenty of reason to panic, 162 games aside. While Twins players seemed to stay the course, Terry Ryan and the organization made somewhat of an odd decision a week ago.

With Miguel Sano starting in right field and still getting used to his role, Byron Buxton scuffling at the plate, and Eddie Rosario being lackluster across multiple facets of the game, a shakeup was needed. Instead of going internally though, using the organizational depth, Terry Ryan decided to sign veteran outfielder David Murphy.

In and of itself, the Murphy signing is far from terrible. If he makes the big league roster (which it sounds like he won't have a long stay at Triple-A), he'll make right around $1.5 million. A 10 year vet, Murphy owns a .274/.333/.432 career line. He's significantly more acceptable at the plate against righties, but as a left handed batter, that's not totally unexpected. In the outfield, the only position he's better than league average is left fielder, where he's worth 3 defensive runs saved in just over 4,700 innings.

That brings us to the Twins odd predicament, and it's only been further highlighted over the course of the past few games.

Looking at the youth the Twins employ, Miguel Sano is the least likely to ever go back to the farm. Despite his bat starting out ice cold, the Dominican has seen Minnesota committed to his development in right field. He's been decent despite some minor struggles, and his bat is going to come around. In center, Buxton has given the Twins some pause, and he could go back. Regardless what happens to Byron though, Murphy is not a center fielder, and his -8 career DRS would be ugly there. That brings us to left field.

Considering the options for the Twins to send to the farm when Murphy comes up, Eddie Rosario should be considered the most deserving candidate. His approach at the plate has been largely worse than it was a season ago (which was already ugly). He's been worth -2 DRS in left field this season, and he's given the Twins more head scratching moments than he hasn't. That all being said, I don't see the Twins making that move at all.

The problem however isn't who is sent down, but in that Murphy is probably going to come up to the Twins to play. Oswaldo Arcia was brought north out of spring training because the Twins aren't dumb. Just 24 years old, the Venezuelan had a 100% chance of being claimed on waivers by another team had Minnesota DFA'd him. Having brought him north though, he started just one of the Twins first 8 games.

After being given some leash, Arcia started each of the games in which the Twins faced off against the Angels at Target Field. Minnesota swept the series, and Arcia provided two game winners across the three game span. His .385/.429/.615 slash line is no doubt a product of a small sample size, but his home run and three runs batted in are production areas he should be expected to contribute in.

Sure, this early into the season, the Twins have plenty of other narratives to focus on, and many of them have arguably more weight. That said, in a season in which the Twins seemed committed to having the youth be the backbone of their success or failure, relying on an aging vet seems counter productive. Whether it be Arcia or Max Kepler, there's internal options with far more upside that should have been considered more heavily.

Within the next handful of games, we'll find out how this narrative is going to play out. Twins beat writer LaVelle E. Neal noted that Murphy was told he won't be at Triple-A Rochester long. Given what seems like an assurance he'll bump someone off the big league roster, we'll have to take a wait and see approach. No matter what though. Murphy of the internal candidates is a decision that appears to go against what the Twins were pushing for in the season ahead.

The Twins Looking For A Fix

It began as a sweep, then turned into a franchise record, and has now reached less than unfortunate territory. The Twins opening up the season with a handful of losses as they have has been anything but expected. This was a team looking to take the next step forward, and while that could still end up being the case, they've dug themselves a massive hole. I've taken it upon myself to figure out how to fix it thought.

Short of cloning eight more Joe Mauer's, the Twins need to shake things up a bit. Here's a couple things I see as being helpful to getting this club going in 2016:

A lineup shuffle

Speaking of Joe Mauer, bat him in the leadoff spot. It's been something I've contended as making sense for quite some time, and if there's a time to try it, now would make a lot of sense. The Twins have gone with Brian Dozier for the better part of the past two seasons and mostly because they really don't have a legitimate option. Despite being a respectable OBP guy, Dozier's pop is best served elsewhere.

Mauer owns a career .395 on base percentage, and even in his career worst .265 average season of 2015, he still posted a .338 OBP. Through the first handful of games in 2016, Mauer owns a .387/.487/.581 slash line and has walked (6) more times than he's struck out (4). Forget about the idea that a leadoff hitter has to be a speed guy, you can't steal first and Mauer will get there more often than not.

Start a new outfield

No, this isn't a chance to knock the Sano experiment. There's been some lumps (honestly what in the world was that dive), but for the most part it's going just fine. You're keeping Sano in the mix for his bat, and right field is a fine place to do it. That said, his two outfield mates could afford to be swapped out. Give me Oswaldo Arcia in left with Max Kepler in center.

The Twins brought Arcia north because they aren't stupid. There's no way the Venezuelan slugger would pass through waivers unclaimed, and that's because another team will assume he can hit. Through 9 games (of which Minnesota has lost them all), Arcia has drawn just one start and been given only four at bats. He had a horrid 2015 season at the dish, but he's a year removed from a .231/.300/.452 slash line with 20 homers. If the Twins can scoff at that kind of power production given their current situation, I'm unsure how.

With Kepler you're getting a prospect with some serious upside into the field. Of course he'd be taking over for Byron Buxton, but I'll address that shortly. You'll lose a good amount defensively but Kepler's best position in the field is in center. He'll hit eventually, and if his .318/.410/.520 slash line across High-A and Double-A in 2015 is anything of substance, it'll be sooner rather than later.

Buxton rides the bus

For the most part, I diagrammed why I believe Buxton would be best suited for about three weeks at Triple-A in this piece. It's not a death sentence, and it shouldn't change the belief that he's a top end talent long term. Right now though, he needs to shorten up his swing a bit and generate some significant confidence at the plate.

In 13 games at Rochester in 2015, Buxton hit .400 and picked up at least one base hit in every game. Allow him to go down, settle in, and generate that kind of production again. Buxton has had a eerily similar career beginning to Mike Trout, and although he's never going to hit for that kind of power, wanting the immediate return shouldn't trump him getting the opportunity to contribute when he's ready.

With the Twins having signed David Murphy, someone in the outfield is headed back to Rochester. The veteran isn't going to be on the farm long, and the Twins would be best served to make it Buxton. Of course they could have just started their own players (Arcia/Kepler) rather than signing Murphy, but I digress.

Break Sano and Park off

Right now, the two biggest power threats in the Twins lineup couldn't hit a breaking pitch to save their life. Miguel Sano has made watching early fastballs down the gut a habit, and he's routinely guessed and buckled at the vision of a bender coming in. Byung Ho Park has bailed out on pitches, struggled to keep his head through the sing zone, and has flailed at offspeed stuff far too often.

I'm not sure going down to Triple-A would be a good idea for either of them. Big league benders are going to be what they need to compete against, and forcing them to work through the struggles up top seems the best plan of action. We've seen Sano handle it with the impressive 2015 he had, and it was always (yes you were wrong about Park struggling with fastballs) going to be the biggest change for Park in coming over from Korea.

Maybe the two of them need a heavy dose of offspeed live batting practice a couple of times a week. Maybe their swings need some tweaking. I'm not 100% sold on what the answer is, but breaking balls have been the pair's kryptonite and it needs to end sooner rather than later.

Level with Rosario

When looking at how to shuffle the otufield, I have a hard time suggesting Eddie Rosario not having been the worst of the Twins bunch. Following a successful rookie year that saw him put up numbers despite some really concerning offensive flaws, he's been incredibly out of sorts to start 2016. Not only are his offensive problems coming to light (he's swinging at 50.8% of pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing 19.7% of the time, both worse than 2015 numbers), but he's been awful in the field as well (-2 DRS in just 68.1 innings).

There was plenty of reasons thrown out as to why Rosario struggled as he rose through the minors. His on base percentage dipped and he looked like he didn't want to be there. I know that his disinterest has been noted as the biggest culprit. He's often been suggested as a guy that wanted to be in the big leagues and believed he was above that level. He's probably not wrong, but flipping the switch is a hard task and one he hasn't seemed capable of in 2016.

Right now, I think Buxton has more to gain from a development standpoint by going to Triple-A. If it were plausible though, I'd send Rosario out simply to send a message. His head isn't screwed on right, and it's been pretty apparent.

At the end of the day, when things are going as wrong as they are for the Twins, there's no shortage of things Minnesota can try. Paul Molitor has to right the ship sooner rather than later though. With just a small portion of the 162 game slate accounted for, there's plenty of time left, but it's up to the club to make meaningful use of it.

The Twins Forgotten Man

As a new Major League Baseball season approaches, a renewed sense of hope imparts itself upon Twins Territorians. After a near playoff run a season ago, Paul Molitor's club will be looking to take the next step forward in the year ahead. Typically, that step isn't taken by every player, as regression candidates rear their heads. By now, you're probably aware that for 2016, my pick is none other than Eddie Rosario. Should that narrative play out, we find ourselves staring at one of the Twins most forgotten men.

No doubt, Rosario heads into Spring Training with a grasp on the starting left field job. Someday (and possibly even this year), it may be turned over to German phenom Max Kepler. First though, a hulking Venezuelan will get his [final] crack.

Enter Oswaldo Arcia.

Before there was Eddie Rosario in left field, prior to the defensive wizardry the position provided a year ago, and before the speed that the Twins employed, the role was Arcia's. Just a year removed from a 20 home run season, Arcia seemingly is everything Rosario is not in left. He doesn't play great defense, covering ground isn't his thing, but he's also no stranger to the long ball.

After a successful debut season in 2013, Arcia followed up his performance with a solid Sophomore season as well. On top of the new career high in homers (20), Arcia turned in a triple slash line of .231/.300/.452. His OPS was 18 points higher than in his debut year, and while he still struck out far too often, he kept his similar pace when taking walks. By this point, it had become apparent Arcia's contribution would be in the long ball or bust, and that's something the Twins would need to decide if they could live with.

Given just 19 games at the big league level a season ago, Arcia seemed a shell of his former self. While his average was a career best (.276) and his OBP topped out at .338, the small sample size led to almost no power production (just two homers and eight runs batted in). The home runs also were the only extra base hits Arcia generated at the big league level a season ago. Finally, the Twins had seen enough and a demotion came.

At Triple-A Rochester, things only got worse for the slugger. Outside of a torrid stretch in July (8 HR 19 RBI .367/.446/.918) his season was a disaster. In 79 games, he hit below the Mendoza Line (.199/.257/.372), while striking out 82 times and drawing just 18 walks. No doubt wanting to get back to the big leagues, he did nothing to warrant the trip and spent September watching from the couch.

Now out of options, Arcia must make 2015 look like a mirage. He posted career worsts in swinging strike percentage (19.6%), chased pitches out of the zone over 40% of the time, and generated "hard" contact over 10% less often (just 22.7% of the time) than he had in the first two years of his career. To say that a season ago, Arcia took a step back, would be putting it lightly.

Despite reports that Arcia has taken a new focus on the entirety of his game, including his defense, there's little doubt that his production will often be offensively fueled. Now with his back against the wall, he must make things stick in the year ahead. Working in his favor however, is that there should be opportunities.

Both Rosario and Arcia bat left-handed, so a platoon situation doesn't make sense for the Twins. However, if he has to start with a bench bat role, Arcia's numbers against righties has to be where he makes his case. Owning an .807 OPS against right-handers (nearly .200 points better than against lefties), Arcia has slugged 30 of his 36 career homers against righties.

At some point in 2016, things will come to a head for the Twins left field situation. Rosario could stumble, Arcia will need to hit (for power), and Max Kepler will be looking to weasel his way into the mix. There's a lot of moving pieces, but the guy without options, has been somewhat of a forgotten part of the puzzle. If Oswaldo Arcia's story with the Twins is to have a happy ending, it will have to happen, and now.

Dangers In Depth For Twins?

Looking at the state of the Minnesota Twins heading into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the word depth has come up often. Whether it be the surplus of young talent rising to the top of the system, the pitching staff and multiple arms competing to complete it, or the 25 man as a whole. For the first time in a while, the Twins have some depth working to their advantage. Quite possibly however, it could work to their disadvantage.

Some of the focus this offseason has been in regards to the starting rotation and the perception of depth among that group. Minnesota has three pitchers locked into starting roles including: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson. Behind them, a combination of Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer, and Trevor may will slot into the final two spots. As it pertains to pitching, the fear is their is more quantity than their is quality options.

It's pretty easy to suggest some of those starting pitching concerns are overblown. The Twins starting staff is going to be better than it was a season ago, and even significantly isn't much of a stretch. No matter who fills out those final two spots (though it likely will be Duffey and Milone), there's plenty of insurance options directly behind them.

Looking at the 25 man roster however, the Twins have another area where their depth may come into question. Looking at what the projected bench may be, Minnesota could find itself in some interesting spots. The goal for playoff and World Series team's alike is to have a better 25th player than that of your opponent. Some nights, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Twins to accomplish that feat.

Paul Molitor should have Eduardo Nunez, John Ryan Murphy, Oswaldo Arcia, and Danny Santana at his disposal on a nightly basis. Of them, you'd be hard pressed to argue any one of them is a complete player and offers immense upside for a 2016 Twins squad needing to squeeze out a few extra wins. Nunez is with the Twins on a one-year, arbitration deal, while Santana and Arcia are out of options, and Murphy is looking to carve into the starting lineup.

 A season ago, Nunez hit .282/.327/.431 in 72 games for Minnesota. That was easily the best slash line of his career, and a great deal better than the .267/.308/.388 career mark he's posted thus far. His 1.1 fWAR was nearly a full win above his previous career best, and considering his -0.6 fWAR career mark, a significant jump for a single season. Nunez also batted above .300 (.314 to be exact) on balls in play for just the second time of his career (the other time was in a 38 game sduring 2012 for the Yankees).

Nunez's hard hit rates didn't change much last season, and his contact rate actually dipped a little. He's still going to provide the Twins positional flexibility, but the offensive production is likely more mirage than it is indicative of what's to come.

Then there's Danny Santana. If there's a guy that knows about BABIP it's Santana. After hitting .319/.353/.472 in 2014, Santana's inflated .405 BABIP brought him back down to earth. Minnesota gave him an incredibly long leash a season ago, and in 91 games he slashed a terrible .215/.241/.291. His -15 DRS (defensive runs saved), and 16 errors at SS in just 66 games were beyond bad, and he's since been moved back to the outfield.

Santana is out of options in 2016, and that forces the Twins hand. He should be deployed as a super utility player that doesn't defend anywhere exceptionally well. His infield defense has been covered, and he's just a bit below average in center (a position in which he should only spell Byron Buxton). For Santana though, it comes down to whether he can hit at all, and a season ago, the Twins didn't see it.

That brings us to Arcia, who like Santana, absolutely needs to hit. Of the group thus far, Arcia no doubt presents the most offensive upside. He's just a year removed from a 20 homer output, and the hulking Venezuelan has real power when he connects. The issue is that doesn't happen often enough.

Despite posting a nice .276/.338/.379 slash line in 19 games with the Twins, the power didn't show itself enough to get him extended run. He reeled off a nice home run stretch at Triple-A in 2015, but he finished with an awful .199/.257/.372 slash line in 79 games for Rochester. He's never posted below a 15.0% swinging strike rate, and last season, he nearly swung and missed 20% of the time. With the Twins a year ago, he also chased pitches out of the zone nearly 50% of the time.

A bad outfielder (-27 DRS in 204 games played), Arcia has to hit to give the Twins any real benefit. Molitor can't afford to play him and Miguel Sano in the outfield at the same time, and coming off of the bench cold may not help his bat. Arcia, like Santana, is out of options, and without his bat catching fire, could do more harm for Minnesota than good.

Finally, the club will have a capable big league catcher to swap with Kurt Suzuki for the first time in a while. Gone are the days of calling up Four-A type players like Eric Fryer and Chris Herrmann. Murphy is far from a set-the-world-on-fire type, but he's got promise to develop into a nice big league starter. With Minnesota looking to avoid activating Suzuki's player option for 2017, the starting role should become Murphy's role sooner than later.

In his career, Murphy has never played more than 67 games at the big league level in a season. Over the last two years for the Yankees however (99 games) he's slashed .280/.324/.394. There's probably more doubles power than home run reliability there, but he looks the part of a capable big league hitter. Most importantly for the Twins is that Murphy possesses capable receiving skills as well as the ability to throw would be base-stealers out (did so at a 28% clip in 2015).

Paul Molitor is going to ease Murphy into the starting lineup, but he's more than a throw in secondary catcher. While not an offensive juggernaut, his role on the Twins bench is much more in line with future promise than his counterparts.

At the end of the day, planning to fill out your bench with starting caliber players isn't a realistic strategy. What the Twins have though may be more a by-product of their situation, and not exactly the depth on the 25 man roster you'd like to see. It's tough to envision top prospects like Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler coming up to the big league level in a reserve role, but the Twins could probably advance their overall ability be considering it at some point.

Should the Twins move towards a second playoff push in 2016, it will likely be some combination of their bench out producing expectations, and that bench transforming. No doubt making waves in October is about getting production from your best players, but the Twins will also be looking to push the envelope when it comes to the guys that round out the club as well.

The Question Mark In The Outfield

The Minnesota Twins will enter the 2016 Major League Baseball season with some questions in regards to their outfield. Despite having adept fielders in both Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano's ability remains to be seen. For now though, I believe there's a possibility that the Sano experiment could work. What's a bigger question is what happens with Oswaldo Arcia.

After slugging 20 homers in 103 games during the 2014 season, last year couldn't have gone worse for Arcia. He was up for just 19 games to start the year, and then spent the rest of 2015 at Triple-A Rochester. Outside of a brief home run stretch, Arcia didn't do anything for the Red Wings.

When the dust settled on his Triple-A filled 2015, Arcia owned a sad .199/.257/.372 slash line. He did contribute 12 home runs, but he struck out 82 times while drawing just 18 walks. For a guy who never was reliable in the on-base category, the new low from 2015 was truly disappointing. On top of the offensive struggled, Arcia continued the narrative of being a defensive liability. In 60 games, Arcia committed five errors in the outfield. His .963 fielding percentage was the worst he's posted since 2012, and that doesn't account for his range factor (or lack thereof).

So what happens going forward?

Minnesota has some serious decisions to make when it comes to Arcia. For now, it's almost guaranteed that he'll break Spring Training with the big league club. He's out of options and would be certain to be claimed off of waivers by another team. He'll head north without a starting role though, that much is also certain. Destined for a reserve outfield role, with bench at-bats mixed in, Arcia will have to capitalize when given then opportunity.

The Twins realize that Arcia is a year removed from looking like a potential contributor. His .276/.338/.379 slash line in 2014 may be what his best looks like, but it's hard to be against that kind of production. For Arcia to return to those heights however, he'll need to turn his tendencies around.

A year ago, the Venezuelan slugger was hitting just 22.7% of balls in play with hard contact. That was down from 32.1% in 2014. Also, he saw a major rise in his "soft" contact, at 27.3% (up from 16.7% in 2014). There's some explaining that can be done by looking at how Arcia handled himself at the plate as well.

Contributing to the dip in production was Arcia's less than ideal discipline in the batters box. In 2015, Arcia was chasing pitches outside of the strike zone at a 48.6% clip. Despite being noted as someone who chases pitches, that mark was a far cry worse than his career 38.6% average. There was also the fact that Arcia was making contact at a lesser rate as well. Last season, he swung and missed 19.6% of the time, up from 17.4% in 2014. For a guy that's already a less than ideal defender, the production needs to start at the dish.

Heading into Spring Training, Arcia will no doubt be working heavily with Tom Brunansky on trying to hone in on driveable pitches. A more consistent and calculated approach at the plate is a must if Arcia is going to salvage his career with the Twins. The reality however is that his rope is extremely short, and time is not working on his side.

With Minnesota having not moved Arcia this offseason, it's probably fair to assume he'll either make it or be designated for assignment. The Twins can't afford to keep him on their 25 man roster without production, and there's not going to be a market for a guy that can be had for nothing. At the end of the day, it's on Arcia to prove he has reason to be here. In a best case scenario, he's a capable rotating bat for Minnesota. If things continue to trend the wrong way, he'll go down as a tale of a power hitter that could have been but never was.

Two Bats Without A Home

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins have already shown an indication that they are in fact looking to improve upon what was a breakout season in 2015. In making a couple of trades, while also securing the winning big for Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park, Paul Molitor's squad is trending in the right direction. Amidst the moves though, there's two players that have seemingly been cast aside.

Enter Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas.

In 2013, Arcia made his big league debut as a 22 year-old. The Venezuelan born outfielder was regarded as a power bat, with the ability to take up space in left. After a 97 game debut season that saw him slash ..251/.304/.430 with 14 homers, Arcia has taken somewhat of a nose dive. Although the home run total rose in 2014 (20 HR), the splits dipped (.231/.300/.452). On top of poor defensive showings, Arcia entered 2015 with a whole lot to prove.

After being given just 19 games at the big league level, the Twins sent Arcia packing and made him aware and extended stay on the farm was in order. An average beginning to his Triple-A stay was followed by an impressive power display. From July 1-16, Arcia launched eight home runs and 19 RBI while slashing .367/.446/.918. The problem however, is that was the end of the positives. When the dust settled, 79 games at Triple-A saw Arcia bat just .199/.257/.372 while striking out 82 times and drawing just 18 walks.

For Kennys Vargas, the path saw what amounted to significantly muted lows, but also much less significant highs. Oddly, after a hot start to the month of May (.366/.395/.561 from May 1-17), Minnesota asked Vargas to go down and find his power stroke. In his first 29 games with the big league club last season, he hit just three home runs. From that point on, Vargas watched as his season was filled with travels.

Initially, he was sent to Triple-A Rochester, then recalled to the big leagues. Next he was demoted two levels to Double-A Chattanooga, before finally earning a late season promotion back up the ladder. In total, Vargas hit .283/.414/.496 between two minor league levels, and owned a .240/.277/.349 MLB slash line. With 18 home runs on the year between all three levels, the power wasn't as expected.

Heading into 2016, both Arcia and Vargas find themselves in less than ideal situations. For Arcia, he's battling against not only the perception that he took significant steps backwards a season ago, but also that he's up against a 40 man roster crunch (Arcia enters 2016 out of options). Vargas on the other hand, didn't quite do enough to suggest he's ready to contribute, and now Park could be taking away more of his opportunity.

As far as projections are concerned as both players rose through the farm system, Vargas seemed much more along the lines of the suspect bat between the two. However, given Arcia's defensive chops, I always pegged both as being potential bench bats as a middle-of-the-road scenario. Now, it's fair to question whether either have a place with the Twins at all.

There has been discussions that the Twins may look to allow Vargas an opportunity to rebuild his value in playing overseas. While I'd question whether this scenario makes sense for either party, Vargas appears most likely to be on the outs at this point. With Arcia, the trade of Aaron Hicks couldn't have come at a more opportune time. In no way does it open a door wide to playing time, but it gives Arcia much more ample opportunity.

No doubt there is plenty of offseason left, and the Opening Day roster situation is a long way from sorted out. Ideally, Terry Ryan is finding out what the trade market looks like for both Arcia and Vargas. In the end, I'd lean towards keeping both in the organization, with Arcia debuting with the big league club. Get him on the roster as a backup outfielder and a bat off the bench.

Regardless of what outside opinions suggest however, both players find themselves at a crossroads that could end up being make or break in their big league careers.

Torii Hunter's Departure Ushers In New Twins Outfield

Torii Hunter has officially announced his retirement from baseball. For fans around Twins Territory, this should come with mixed emotions. While Hunter was a player beloved by many, he was an aging player well past his prime. Now with the Twins set to move on, they can focus on crafting their outfield for the future. What exactly does that look like however?

In 2015, Hunter started 121 games in right field for the Twins. He contributed 1,035 innings, made 231 putouts, and added six outfield assists. On the offensive side of things, the fan favorite slashed .240/.293/.409 with 22 homers and 81 runs batted in. From a top down view, that's what the Twins are looking to replace. Broadening the scope though, there's some other factors at play with Hunter's departure.

As an outfield, Hunter has been a liability for some time now. He made a career high five errors, and had the second lowest fielding percentage (.979) of his 19 year career. Looking into the advanced metrics, the Arkansas native was worth -8 defensive runs saved this past season, and he owned a lackluster 0.3 ultimate zone rating. To summarize, Torii Hunter the outfielder is addition by subtraction for the Twins.

Going into 2016, the assume outfield configuration (or at least the one for the bulk of the season), should be Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks from left to right. It wouldn't be surprising to see Buxton start at Triple-A, but he'll likely spend 75% of his season with the Twins. Despite having those three locked in, Minnesota has been afforded some other options with Hunter's retirement.

While Hicks has the ability to be a 20/20 guy if he can build of his impressive 2015, Rosario and Buxton are tougher to project. Buxton could still face some growing pains, and Rosario's free swinging tendencies make him a prime candidate to face some regression. With that in mind, the focus turns to who's behind the main three.

On what is almost assuredly his final chance, Oswaldo Arcia will need to impress. The defensively lacking outfielder didn't contribute anything significant to the Twins in 2015. Despite a hot homer stretch at Triple-A, his final average was actually below the Mendoza Line. However, Arcia is just a year removed from a 20 homer season at the big league level. Out of options in 2016, Arcia will be given every opportunity to turn the corner.

After Arcia, it's another intriguing prospect, and the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year, Max Kepler. 23 next season, Kepler broke out big time in 2015. He slashed .318/.410/.520 spending 112 games with Double-A Chattanooga. With nine homers, and 13 triples, Kepler's power and speed combination is exciting. Having gotten a cup of coffee to end the 2015 season, there's no doubt the German wants to be at the big league level for good.

By retiring, Hunter likely saved the Twins from themselves. After playing on a one-year, $10.5 million deal in 2015, a similar situation was going to play out in 2016 had he wanted to return (likely for less money). Instead, Minnesota is afforded an open roster spot, and the position to integrate the talented youth providing outfield depth.

Going into the 2015 season, the Twins had far from a sure thing in Hicks, and Rosario (despite a strong spring) wasn't yet ready for the big time. Hunter manned the outfield with the likes of Arcia and vets Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson. This time around, it's the kids time to run with it. Behind the main three, both Arcia or Kepler can be included among the 25 man to round out the outfield grouping. Should Buxton start on the farm, it'll be Arcia in right with the 4th spot up for grabs.

At the end of the day, Minnesota has plenty of options to pick up where Hunter left off. Almost all of them provide a net gain in being better defensive fits, and the offensive ceiling should only be pushed as time goes on. Although the Torii Hunter era has ended, it's the best case scenario for Minnesota, and Paul Molitor has plenty of weapons at his disposal.

The Twins Second Ortiz

Recently, David Ortiz launched his 500th HR for the Boston Red Sox. In doing so, he has entered into one of baseball's sacred number territories. Joining a group that is supposed to all but guarantee Hall of Fame admittance, Ortiz's story began in Minnesota. With the career coming to an end, another Twins prospect may be following in similar footsteps.

At 21 years-old, Ortiz made his major league debut for the Twins. A power hitting prospect, Ortiz was expected to hold down the heart of the lineup for years to come. In his first 15 games, he slashed .327/.353/.449 with one home run, and six runs batted in. Still needing to grow into his frame, it was a promising start for what was always expected to be more.

Fast forward six seasons, and Ortiz had compiled a .266/.348/.461 slash line for Minnesota. His 58 home runs and 238 RBI averaged out to just 9.6 and 39.6 per year respectively. For a guy who left plenty to be desired in the field, the paltry numbers weren't going to help a Twins team looking to turn the corner. Terry Ryan made the decision to hand Ortiz his walking papers.

In the 13 seasons since, Ortiz has gone on to become "Big Papi" for the Boston Red Sox. He's compiled a .289/.385/.566 slash line and has launched 442 homers with 1,390 runs batted in. Ortiz launched 30 or more home runs nine times in that span, and has been at the heart of three World Series titles.

Forget the fact that Ortiz likely won't be getting his due in Cooperstown any time soon (he can thank PEDs for that), or that he's tortured the Twins throughout his career. Minnesota may be in a position to watch it unfold all over again.

At the age of 22, back in 2013, Minnesota saw the debut of Venezuelan outfielder Oswaldo Arcia. Like Ortiz, Arcia was an expected power threat that couldn't be much more than a defensive liability. In his first 219 games for Minnesota, Arcia has slashed .243/.305/.437. The Twins have seen 36 home runs from Arcia, and he's driven in 108 runs, those are numbers Minnesota would have liked to see in a single year.

Outside of the defensive issues, Arcia has a couple of other pretty large detractors working against him. Inside of the batter's box, Arcia owns a career 259/58 K/BB ratio. That equates to roughly 4.5 strikeouts per walks, and striking out in about one-third of his at bats. Then there's the attitude problems. A guy who rarely seems to show max effort, and often reacts emotionally, Minnesota has failed to draw his full potential.

Now with 2015 coming to a close, and 2016 being a pivotal point, Terry Ryan will have to decide his plan of action.

Arcia enters 2016 out of options. Should he start the season with the Twins, Minnesota would have to expose him to waivers in sending him to the farm. On a team that already is going to have Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario in the outfield, Arcia is going to struggle to find time. Should he play in a reserve role, Arcia will then have his maturity and resolve tested.

As things stand, the path Arcia has traveled has somewhat resembled Ortiz's career for the Twins. While I'm not ready to say Arcia figures it out for someone else, I'm also not sure I'd be ok with Terry Ryan finding out. The last player the Twins let get away should be someday preparing a Hall of Fame speech, the next one they may let get away has a crossroads approaching very soon.

What Happens To Oswaldo Arcia?

In recent seasons, the Minnesota Twins have been chastised for keeping players on their 25 man roster in somewhat of a scholarship situation. Veterans that have served their time have been given the benefit of doubt, regardless of the detriment to the team. With young players however, the Twins have made a point to make known that maturity is a priority. Miguel Sano was taught this, and now it appears Oswaldo Arcia is the latest project.

After spending a few weeks on the disabled list, the Twins activated Arcia and then promptly optioned him to Rochester. In somewhat of a surprising move, the Twins could point to Arcia's lack of production in Triple-A while on his rehab stint. Going 0-14 over that time span, he'd seemingly lost all ability to protect a strike zone.

Last night, the Twins Opening Day left fielding reached a tipping point. After being disgusted with a strike two call, and showing his displeasure to home plate umpire, he did this on the very next pitch:

Oswaldo Arcia struck out in 2 at-bats in yesterday's Red Wings game. After the second time, he did this. #P... https://t.co/9bBylCVzqs

— Parker Hageman (@ParkerHageman) June 5, 2015

There's little doubt that this isn't going to go over well with front office management for the Twins, and it likely isn't going to help shorten Arcia's time down on the farm. For all of the upside the young Venezuelan has, he has also become synonymous with a less than ideal attitude. No doubt the Twins want him to hit his way back to the big leagues, but the attitude has to follow suit.

Looking at Arcia and a return to the big leagues, that also brings into question what the Twins do with him. He's been brought up by many in regards to a trade. Whether that be because of declining performance, or the perceived log jam in the outfield, Arcia is consistently tied to being the odd man out. That being said, it would appear that following a strategy like that would be less than an ideal path to take.

Still with an affinity to chase pitches, and an unrefined swing, Oswaldo Arcia blasted 20 home runs in just 103 games last season for the Twins. In 97 games in 2013, Arcia hit 14 long balls. A big frame with plenty of power, Arcia projects as a guy who should hit 20 home runs with his eyes closed for the majority of the next few years. There's no doubt he needs to work on his approach as a whole, but there are far less reason for concern than seem to be discussed.

Prior to going on the DL this season, Arcia was hitting .276/.338/.379 with two home runs in 19 games for the Twins. Right now, his value could not be lower. Coming off of injury, struggling in Triple-A, and showing attitude issues, the Twins would only stand to lose in any deal involving the left-fielder.

There's no doubt the attitude issues can't continue, Arcia displayed plenty of it at the big league level as well. That aside however, his bat belongs at the big league level and playing for the Twins. Minnesota is not in a spot where it makes sense to trade Arcia, and for a team lacking power punch, he should be expected to provide it. Arcia's timeframe probably depends on him right now, but the Twins giving up on him should not be in the cards.

Twins Spring Training Q&A

The Minnesota Twins have just over a week left down in Fort Myers for spring training prior to heading north for the 2015 Major League Baseball season. We have seen some position battles play out as well as watching who will grab the 5th and final spot in the starting rotation. No matter what though, this team has plenty of intrigue and has plenty of questions left to be answered.

Yesterday, I was asked a couple of questions on Twitter (find me @tlschwerz) in regards to the Twins upcoming season. In an effort to expand upon the answers to a further extent, this seems like the best avenue to go about answering them.

Let's get into it.

@tlschwerz what road blocks stand between the Twins and the playoffs this year?
— Zachariah Friesen (@FrackZiesen) March 26, 2015

Right now, I have the Twins slated for a 79-83 record when the dust settles at the end of the 2015 season. That mark is not going to crack the playoffs, but that's not to say it isn't off. I really believe that no team in the AL Central will reach 90 wins this season (just like I don't see anyone losing 90 games). Detroit should be considered the division favorite, with Chicago and Cleveland falling somewhere after them. For the Twins, supplanting both teams is possible, but will take quite a few breaks.

The offense outperformed expectations last season, but should be poised to handle the regression. Danny Santana, Kurt Suzuki, and Eduardo Escobar probably aren't going to be as offensively capable as they were in 2014, but Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, and Oswaldo Arcia should be key cogs in 2015. Pitching is going to be the major component for the Twins to grab a wild card spot. Both Hughes and Gibson should provide quality starts each time out, and if the Twins can get that from Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, or the 5th guy, they'll be in a good spot.

@tlschwerz do you see another position change for Mauer in the next few years? RF? 3B?
— Zachariah Friesen (@FrackZiesen) March 26, 2015

Changing Mauer's position again probably depends on the people around him more than it does so on him. I addressed just how good I think he can be at first base this year, but no matter what he's an athlete. Kennys Vargas is never going to take time away from him, but Miguel Sano may need to move spots. Trevor Plouffe is another first base or left field option as well. I'd say the greatest likelihood on a position change is Plouffe, but that probably assume he continues his production.

@tlschwerz when will Wally the Beerman be reinstated?
— Dahl (@mrdahl87) March 26, 2015

It pains me a little to send you searching my old site, but it's funny you bring up Wally the Beerman. I actually wrote a piece a couple of months ago on how he may have actually cursed the Twins. The Cubs have their goat, and us Minnesotans love out beer. Check out the full piece here.

@tlschwerz Who's the first to be called up? Buxton, Sano or Berrios?
— Colin (@ColinDMcLain) March 26, 2015

I addressed my timeline on Twins Tuesday last week on the Jeff Dubay show (make sure to check that out here). I think Rosario is the first positional callup, and quite possibly sees Target Field before Alex Meyer. Sure, his spring training performance may blow things out of proportion, but he's substantiated things with his minor league play. Had he not been suspended 50 games last year, and struggled to get going, he would have been in Target Field last September.

The Twins probably see Sano make his debut around August and Buxton will follow in September. Sano makes his case with his bat, and if Vargas struggles, the Twins could go to the power hitting third basemen in the designated hitter slot. I still believe Hicks has the ability to bring some of his 2014 minor league ability to the majors, and that allows the Twins to let Buxton get some seasoning. Rounding everything out, I think Jose Berrios gets a cup of coffee type call up in September as long as he shows well in Triple-A this season.

@tlschwerz if they're weak in CF and LF why not play Buxton in center and move Mauer to left?
— Jason Hatch (@jasonhatch20) March 27, 2015

This is somewhat of a loaded question. Centerfield is only a weakness offensively at this point, as Hicks would be a plus defender. In left field, Arcia is definitely a liability. He's in the lineup for his bat and there's no question about that. Throwing Buxton into the equation is a bit premature however.

Buxton played in just 31 games in 2014 and batted .234 across two levels. What happens with baseball's top prospect this season is going to be a fluid discussion. If Hicks can prove that his production in Double and Triple-A last season was real, he will hold down center just fine. A fallback option for the Twins in both left and center would immediately be Rosario (see above, he's ready). If Buxton starts hot in Double-A Chattanooga, the Twins could give make him an option sooner rather than later.

Expecting Buxton to be called up from Double-A makes sense, but the timeline is somewhat foggy without games getting underway. He will be in the majors this season; at what time and under what circumstances remains the question. The Twins are best suited not to fix an immediate issue with a team not expected to win at the cost of a 15 year cornerstone however.

The Twins Next Big Contract

Mar 13, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Oswaldo Arcia (31) hits a rbi single during the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports 

This morning, the Minnesota Twins announced they had agreed to a contract extension with All Star second basemen Brian Dozier. In giving him $20 million guaranteed over the next four years, the club eats up his arbitration years and effectively saves themselves money in the long run given production remains at an equal or greater value. While Dozier is the player many believed was up next for a payday, the Twins may be looking at another player in the not so distant future.

A 23-year-old outfielder from Venezuela has not been the greatest defensive asset (to put it lightly) but the Twins are well aware that Oswaldo Arcia is quickly trending towards a payday. While he doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2017, the Twins may look to make the power hitting lefty part of their future, and once again, save some dollars in the long run.

Having debuted with the Twins in April of 2013, and being only 23, Arcia has plenty of growing yet to do. While struggling in the outfield may have to be something the Twins get used to, his payday is going to come in the form of his bat. Last season, Arcia slashed .231/.300/.452; less than ideal numbers for a prototypical middle of the lineup power hitter. However, once he began working extensively with hitting coach Tom Brunansky, Arcia's September produced a .263/.330/.513 slash line.

Heading into 2015, it's probably fair and safe to assume that Arcia's September numbers are more indicative of what he is capable of going forward. As he continues to hone in on the plate, and take a greater command of the zone, his power numbers should only increase. Hitting six home runs and driving in 14 over the final month of the season, the Twins could expect Arcia to be north of the 30 home run mark in 2015. Batting in the heart of the order and supplying that kind of production, there's no doubt that the Twins will want to make sure Arcia is around for the long run.

It's probably premature to be speculating to what extent the Twins want to extend Arcia, or for what cost, but there's no doubt it seems to be a decision that would make sense. In Major League Baseball, young power hitters are generally coveted pieces of competing teams. The Twins are developing one in Arcia, and the further his ceiling is pushed, the more expensive he will continue to get. Considering his age, the Twins will likely go down the path of a longer-term extension buying out potential arbitration years while also making sure to get team control during free agency as well.

Right now, the Twins don't need to throw all of their chips at Arcia, but it's conceivable that he forces their hand soon. If Target Field is turned into a home run hitting playground by the big lefty, and if Arcia continues his September trends, the discussion is going to take place sooner rather than later. At this point, it's probably more a matter of when, and not if. The key however, is when does Arcia unlock the door.

As Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and other top prospects make their way to Target Field over the next few months, it will be around that core that the future is built. With the Twins having a handful of strong contributors already at the major league level, there's no doubt that supplementing can be done from within. Starting with Oswaldo Arcia may be a good spot.

Twins Poised For An Offensive Breakout In 2015

Twins infielder Eduardo Escobar hits a single against Tampa Bay pitcher Brandon Gomes in the fifth inning. (Pioneer Press: John Autey)

Last season, the Minnesota Twins finished in the top third of Major League Baseball when it came to offense. Although the lineup was makeshift more often than not, and contributions came from odd places, Minnesota plated plenty of runs. Early on in spring training, it appeared that repeating that success might be somewhat of a concern. At this point, the question has become just how much better the team can be?

To this point, the Twins have hit 14 home runs in spring training. A season ago, the club hit 16, and was led by Brandon Waring with two. Brian Dozier and Kennys Vargas both have hit three for the Twins already, with Eduardo Escobar adding his second in the form of a grand slam today. Torii Hunter, Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto, and Joe Mauer are all still without home runs due to their lack of playing time. What that suggests is that the Twins could actually be in a better position offensively than they were a season ago.

.@escobarmaracay exits stage center in grand fashion. #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/M990hjCtXp
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) March 17, 2015

It's been noted plenty, but reminding you that Danny Santana and Kurt Suzuki are going to regress is something that's important. Santana simply cannot keep up with his .400+ BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and Suzuki put up some of the best offensive numbers of his career. While the Twins will miss players like those two being on base due to timely hits over the course of a game, they could be amongst the leagues best in longballs.

Looking at the players that should break camp on the Twins 25 man roster, the club has a handful of players that should push towards 20 home runs a piece. Last season, the Twins had just two players each that mark (Dozier 23, Arcia 20). There's no doubt that with the help of hitting coach Tom Brunansky, and the lineup construction of new manager Paul Molitor, that the club should see an increased power output.

There's still roughly three weeks of spring training left, and the Twins will continue to fine tune their approaches at the plate. As the exhibition season rolls on, expecting the power display to dull is probably shortsighted. Having nearly reached their 2014 mark with plenty of time left to play, expecting the Twins to double their spring training home run total from a year ago is a very real possibility.

When we head north, making sure that output carries over is the goal. Obviously Target Field presents somewhat of a heightened challenge considering it's dimensions. That being said, the Twins have hit very few home runs that have left the park with any doubt of their intentions. Seeing the power display being put on by players such as Eddie Rosario and Escobar only adds to the excitement.

If the Twins can in fact get their pitching in order as expected, the offense should help out to an even further extent in 2015. Should Molitor choose to tweak his lineup and allow Mauer to bat second followed by Dozier, the Twins could benefit from more multi-run round-trippers as well. At the end of the day, it all comes down to the Twins dispelling many of the early causes for pause this spring. The offensive output may have lagged behind from the get go, but there's no doubt this team has plenty of sluggers on it.

Spitballing somewhat here, this is what I see for the Twins home run leaderss when the dust settles:

1. Oswaldo Arcia 31+
2. Trevor Plouffe 25+
3. Kennys Vargas 24+
4. Brian Dozier 21+
5. Josmil Pinto 18+

The Twins Next Breakout Star

Baseball is an incredibly difficult sport to play, and it may be even more difficult to predict what may take place over the course of a 162 game season. In 2014, the Minnesota Twins saw breakout performances at both the minor and major league level. Arguably no minor leaguer was more impressive than Jose Berrios, and Danny Santana took the title on the major league side. As 2015 rolls around, another position player looks to follow in Santana's footsteps at Target Field.

Eddie Rosario is without a doubt the name to watch. Progressing initially through the Twins system in the infield, more specifically second base, Rosario has since transitioned to patrolling the outfield. Over his five minor league seasons, Rosario has played 413 games, and split that almost right down the middle between the infield and outfield (204 games at second base and 209 games in the outfield). Playing left field in the Arizona Fall League, and center field for 50 games in 2014, Rosario is settling into his new home. Just because he is getting comfortable doesn't mean he's ready for the leap, but the additional details suggest that may be the next step.

Last season, Rosario spent the beginning of the season sitting on the sidelines, as he was suspended 50 games for use of a recreational drug. Missing time out of the gate, Rosario got off to a less than typical start, and struggled to the tune of a .237/.277/.396 slash line in 79 games with Double-A New Britain. Owning a career line of .294/.343/.485 across five minor league seasons, there's no doubt that the missed time hampered his performance. With the issues behind him, and coming off of a very strong performance to end the season in the Fall League (.330/.345/.410 18 RBI 10 SB 2 3B in 12 games), Rosario is trying to vault himself forward in major league spring training.

With the Twins having played six games in the Grapefruit League, Rosario has seen plenty of playing time, getting reps in five of those contests. Earlier this week, he hit his first home run of the spring, and he already has a double to his credit. Playing almost exclusively in left field, it's pretty apparent where the Twins see him contributing at the next level. Now the question becomes, when does the jump happen?

In 2014 Santana made his debut with the Twins on May 5, just under a month into the season. A player that the Twins probably don't have to worry about when it comes to Super 2 designations, Santana was given a quick promotion and immediately slid into the center field role vacated by Aaron Hicks. Minnesota had a hole in the outfield, and Santana was the option they chose. Prior to his promotion, Santana batted .241/.287/.343 across his first 27 games in the minors. After reaching Target Field, he went on to hit .319/.353/.472 for the Twins across 101 games. The numbers at the plate were ballooned by a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) over .400, but the output was still impressive. Now suggesting Rosario is the next prospect to take the leap, where does that leave us?

Prior to his suspension and down season last year, Rosario had twice appears on the top 100 prospects list by Baseball Prospectus (both in 2012 and 2014). His minor league numbers are vastly superior to Santana's, and his upside is arguably higher as well. Minnesota is set to start the season with Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter flanking Hicks in the outfield, with Jordan Schafer as the fourth option. Should Minnesota choose to give the big league club a boost, finding a place for Rosario early could be the best option. Hicks might be the player that things depend on, considering Schafer would need to be designated off the Twins roster.

No matter who cedes time however, getting Rosario to contribute at the major league level should be an early goal of the Twins. Like Santana before him, expecting an impressive output from the get go would not be a far-fetched idea.

No Offense, But Offense Isn't A Concern

Through five Spring Training games, the Minnesota Twins have compiled a record of 2-2-1 and have failed to score more than two runs in all but one of those games. With a nine run outburst in their Grapefruit League Opener against the Boston Red Sox, the Twins offense showed up for the lone time thus far down in Florida. While that may seem somewhat concerning, caution is best implemented in this situation.

Maybe most importantly, pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training roughly a week ahead of hitters. While it may seem like a nominal amount of time, factoring in that offense has already been down across Major League Baseball due to the strength of pitching, only compounds the issue. Then, a quick look across the diamond also should give reason for pause. Although the Twins have scored more than two runs only once in five games, their opponents have done so only twice in that time span.

For a Twins team that largely outperformed expectations when it came to offense a season ago, a slow start is an understandable reason for concern. That being said, Spring Training should continue to be largely representative of process moreso than results. You could just as easily assume that Twins pitching has been vastly improved based upon the early returns, but such a conclusion would likely be shortsighted as well.

A season ago, the Twins found unexpected offense in the form of Kurt Suzuki and Danny Santana. Both players largely outproduced their expectations, and shouldn't be relied upon to repeat the performance. However, that doesn't spell doom for the Twins. One of the best hitters in the last month of the season was Oswaldo Arcia. Working with hitting coach Tom Brunansky, Arcia seems to have found a new approach at the plate, on that is conducive of much more positive results.

On top of Arcia adding some excitement to the lineup, the Twins primed for aggression in 2015. There's no doubt that Torii Hunter was brought in with mentorship of Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton in mind. On a $10.5 million you can bet the Twins are expecting Hunter to produce, and if his recent seasons are any indication (.295/.327/.456 slash line since 2013), he should do just that. Along with Hunter, if the Twins can get Hicks to show even a glimmer of the offensive promise he proved after his demotion a season ago, they should be in a great place.

At this point in time, it's fair to have some reason for caution when it comes to the Twins lineup. the offensive output was above where it should have been, and probably will regress in 2015. Knowing the pitching staff is in a better place, and that the Twins have added other pieces, makes that an ok thing however. For now, just enjoy the Miguel Sano longballs and know that the run production will come.

The Twins are scheduled to take on the Blue Jays today in Dunedin, Florida at 12:05 pm CT.