Over the past month, two Minnesota Twins hitters have been absolutely unconscious in relation to their teammates. Both Kurt Suzuki and Brian Dozier have been so red hot at the plate, they've completely turned around the storylines of their early seasons. While Suzuki is in the last year of his deal with Minnesota, and is likely on his way out, Dozier is not and finds himself in a different situation.
Coming into the season, there was some significant worry about what Brian Dozier's career may turn into. Fangraphs questioned whether his pull happy tendencies would have him looking like Dan Uggla sooner rather than later. Using that as a baseline, I too was worried that we may have seen the best of what Dozier has to offer.
Then there was the early season swoon for the Twins second basemen. He was determined to pull the ball regardless of what that meant for the team. His approach had become one of a sellout for power, and in turn, allowed him to maximize his career potential. The piece that became maybe hardest to be patient with was that there were numbers that suggested Dozier would turn things around, despite what we were watching was telling us. Now through the month of June, we have seen a guy that looks every bit the part of his 2015 All Star self come full circle.
Back in May, the numbers I noted included a 7.5% HR/FB ratio, a 17.2 K%, and an 81.2% contact rate. While Dozier was putting up better peripheral numbers than at most points in his career, the results simply weren't following suit for him. Fast forward to where we are now, and things have normalized significant. He's still making great contact, in fact he's bumped the number to an even 82%. His strikeout rate has continued to drop, and Dozier is heading back to the bench just 16% of the time (a very nice adjustment from his Twins record setting strikeout total a year ago). The biggest difference though comes by way of the longball.
I wrote that piece talking about numbers suggesting not to panic on Dozier on May 3. To that point, the second basemen had just three homers for the Twins. His 7.5% HR/FB ratio was nearly half of what it was a season ago. Now, Dozier has boosted his his HR/FB ratio to a whopping 12%. It's equated to nine more home runs for the 2015 All Star, and his game looks to be back in line with what we have come to expect from him.
Just over a year ago, Brian Dozier was climbing into elite territory among second basemen. From a position that doesn't boast an incredible amount of offensive stalwarts, he was right there behind the Jose Altuve's of the big leagues. With his resurgence and normalization, he's made good once again on his contract, and has the Twins having to wonder what to do with the middle of their infield.
Enter Jorge Polanco.
A top Twins prospect and just 22 years old, Polanco is going to force the Twins to make a decision on him sooner rather than later as he'll be out of options a season from now. Through 48 games at Triple-A Rochester this season, he's slashing .289/.344/.492 with 22 extra base hits. He's played nearly exclusively at second base (41 games with one at third base), and hasn't played considerable time at shortstop since 2015 at Double-A Chattanooga.
For Polanco, the thought was that he'd never be able to stick at short in the big leagues. With 339 games under his belt in the minors at short, he's made 99 errors in just shy of 3,000 innings. His .932 fielding percentage leaves plenty to be desired, and would likely be an area of concern at the highest level. What the Twins haven't done however is find out.
When Eduardo Escobar hit the disabled list early in 2016, I argued that Paul Molitor should have deployed Polanco at short on a nearly every day basis. Eduardo Nunez is a fun story, but not an every day player, and he's started to show that. Molitor failed to employ the idea however, and aPolanco was given little opportunity to provide and level of clarity for the Twins.
Now having returned and surged since being injured, Escobar once again looks like the Twins best option at short. What's worth exploring though is whether or not an ideal situation involves both Polanco and Escobar garnering starts at short for Minnesota. In this scenario, Minnesota would likely (and should) need to move Eduardo Nunez. It's a proposition I have been making for weeks, and while he likely isn't going to have a ton of trade value regardless of his out-of-nowhere 2016, shipping Nunez elsewhere opens a necessary roster spot for the Twins.
At this point, Minnesota appears committed to the idea that Nunez is an All Star. For marketing purposes, it makes sense as to why they'd want to hold onto him until after the mid-summer classic in San Diego. Shortly thereafter though, Terry Ryan needs to cut ties and turn shortstop over into a rotational situation between Escobar and Polanco.
Going forward, the Twins absolutely have to make a decision on who stays and who goes between Dozier and Polanco. If Jorge can't hack it at short and his lone position is second base, I'd look to send him packing. He's not going to bring the return that Dozier presumably would, but he also would have some serious production shoes to fill if Minnesota did move on from Dozier.
In an ideal situation the Twins enter 2017 with Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco splitting time at shortstop with Brian Dozier holding down second base. If the return for Polanco can help you elsewhere, he's the piece I'm willing to move. Barring a club giving up a handful of prospects for an All Star caliber player in Dozier, I want to hold onto one of the most productive players on the Twins roster.
Going forward, third base is Miguel Sano's while first base is Joe Mauer's. What happens up the middle is up in the air for the time being, but the Twins could provide themselves more clarity over the next couple of months.
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Terry Ryan Is Bad, And Worse Than You'd Think
There's not much hiding from the fact that the 2016 Minnesota Twins aren't good. Currently just 24-51 through their first 75 games, Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have put a stinker on the field night after night. While there's plenty of blame to be handed to the players under-performing, there's a true scapegoat in all of this.
At the end of the day, the criticism for Terry Ryan hasn't been loud enough.
Sure, it's maybe not fair to pile on a 62 year old that's in well over his head. That being said, he's currently the General Manager of a Major League Baseball team, and his ineptitude suggests we probably haven't dissected just how bad it is, often enough. Forget the fact he asked his best young player to play out of position, or the reality that he's made countless of boneheaded roster moves in 2016 alone. Honestly, you can forget that fact that the debacle known as 2016 has even happened, none of it matters, and none of it absolves Ryan from what he's done.
What is it that he has done you ask? Now in his 20th season as the General Manager of the Minnesota Twins, Ryan has compiled losing records in 13 of those seasons (including 2016). He's orchestrated two separate four-year stretches of 90 plus losses, and his teams have won just 47% of the 3,083 games he's presided over.
After handpicking his replacement in Bill Smith following the 2017 season, he's come back to be even worse. Since his return in 2011, the Twins have won only 42% of their games, and have had just one winning season. Ryan has never sniffed anything close to a World Series berth, and the playoffs have been made just four times.
In short, no sane franchise gives any comparable run to a General Manager that has failed at the level Ryan has for the Twins.
Not only has Minnesota given Terry Ryan 20 years of employment, but they have also entrusted him with one of the most critical situations in recent Twins history. Following the second four-year 90 loss stretch under his watch, Ryan was tasked to rebuild. He had a talented farm system that was supposed to be the biggest piece of the puzzle, and in turn, make Minnesota relevant at the highest level.
Instead, Ryan has decided to put bandaids on a bullet wound, and turned his nose at a rebuild. He's committed significant money or years of employment to players like Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Kurt Suzuki, He moved his star third basemen to right field and got him injured. He's failed to make trades when they appeared obvious, and instead has sold at a player's lowest possible value, or cut bait all together (see Arcia, Oswaldo). Seemingly lacking understanding of player options, he's misused his young talent (see Tonkin, Michael or Polanco, Jorge), and he's committed to veteran retreads.
Ryan most recently can be pitted against franchise gurus such as Theo Epstein or Jeff Lunhow. With both the Cubs and Astros finding themselves in similar positions to the Twins during recent memory, both have turned their respective franchises around and are in significantly better places than that of the hapless Twins. While both Chicago and Houston were looking to turn things around and sustain a high level of play into the future, Ryan was worried about toeing the line of mediocrity for the here and now.
To summarize, nothing the Twins do in 2016 matters. Poor trades, poor roster management, poor decisions, all of it together doesn't matter. Sure, the more decisions that Terry Ryan has a hand in, the further the franchise will be set back for the long run. Really though, the only thing that matters is that the Twins realize and do something about their 20 year long mistake.
Terry Ryan is not a good General Manager, and he's never been a good General Manager. A brief period of relevance is a distant memory, and far from worthy to hang the franchise's hat on still today. It's not an enviable situation to make a change at the top, but until the Minnesota Twins rid themselves of the man who has brought them 20 seasons of losing, nothing matters.
At the end of the day, the criticism for Terry Ryan hasn't been loud enough.
Sure, it's maybe not fair to pile on a 62 year old that's in well over his head. That being said, he's currently the General Manager of a Major League Baseball team, and his ineptitude suggests we probably haven't dissected just how bad it is, often enough. Forget the fact he asked his best young player to play out of position, or the reality that he's made countless of boneheaded roster moves in 2016 alone. Honestly, you can forget that fact that the debacle known as 2016 has even happened, none of it matters, and none of it absolves Ryan from what he's done.
What is it that he has done you ask? Now in his 20th season as the General Manager of the Minnesota Twins, Ryan has compiled losing records in 13 of those seasons (including 2016). He's orchestrated two separate four-year stretches of 90 plus losses, and his teams have won just 47% of the 3,083 games he's presided over.
After handpicking his replacement in Bill Smith following the 2017 season, he's come back to be even worse. Since his return in 2011, the Twins have won only 42% of their games, and have had just one winning season. Ryan has never sniffed anything close to a World Series berth, and the playoffs have been made just four times.
In short, no sane franchise gives any comparable run to a General Manager that has failed at the level Ryan has for the Twins.
Not only has Minnesota given Terry Ryan 20 years of employment, but they have also entrusted him with one of the most critical situations in recent Twins history. Following the second four-year 90 loss stretch under his watch, Ryan was tasked to rebuild. He had a talented farm system that was supposed to be the biggest piece of the puzzle, and in turn, make Minnesota relevant at the highest level.
Instead, Ryan has decided to put bandaids on a bullet wound, and turned his nose at a rebuild. He's committed significant money or years of employment to players like Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Kurt Suzuki, He moved his star third basemen to right field and got him injured. He's failed to make trades when they appeared obvious, and instead has sold at a player's lowest possible value, or cut bait all together (see Arcia, Oswaldo). Seemingly lacking understanding of player options, he's misused his young talent (see Tonkin, Michael or Polanco, Jorge), and he's committed to veteran retreads.
Ryan most recently can be pitted against franchise gurus such as Theo Epstein or Jeff Lunhow. With both the Cubs and Astros finding themselves in similar positions to the Twins during recent memory, both have turned their respective franchises around and are in significantly better places than that of the hapless Twins. While both Chicago and Houston were looking to turn things around and sustain a high level of play into the future, Ryan was worried about toeing the line of mediocrity for the here and now.
To summarize, nothing the Twins do in 2016 matters. Poor trades, poor roster management, poor decisions, all of it together doesn't matter. Sure, the more decisions that Terry Ryan has a hand in, the further the franchise will be set back for the long run. Really though, the only thing that matters is that the Twins realize and do something about their 20 year long mistake.
Terry Ryan is not a good General Manager, and he's never been a good General Manager. A brief period of relevance is a distant memory, and far from worthy to hang the franchise's hat on still today. It's not an enviable situation to make a change at the top, but until the Minnesota Twins rid themselves of the man who has brought them 20 seasons of losing, nothing matters.
In Trading Santana, Twins Can Start Over
As the Minnesota Twins continue their run through the 2016 Major League Baseball season, it's more than apparent to label them as sellers when the July 31st trade deadline rolls around. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor will have to decide who sticks going forward, but no one not named Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton should be considered off limits on the 25 man roster. It sounds like the piece that may draw the most interest could be starting pitcher Ervin Santana.
Recently, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that an American League assistant GM told him that Santana is seen as "perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market." It's interesting that this information comes from Cafardo. Not because he's been unreliable in the past, but instead, Cafardo's assigned Red Sox could definitely use some starting help. With that reality in play, it's fair to assume he may be pretty clued in to the starting market.
So, if the Twins are actually going to grab some offers for Ervin Santana, what can we actually expect? Right now, Santana is in just the second year of a four-year deal paying him $55 million. At 33 years old, he's not merely a rental, and a contending team could do considerably worse. In his time with the Twins, Santana has started 31 games and posted a 4.27 ERA. It's almost identically in line with his 4.29 FIP and inflated due to a 1.357 WHIP. His 6.6 K/9 isn't going to light the world on fire, but his 2.9 BB/9 has been more than acceptable. A middle of the rotation starter, you'll get what you expect with Santana.
Having pitched in both the American and National (briefly) Leagues, Santana's stuff should play just fine no matter where he ends up. His fastball velocity has remained consistent the past two seasons with Minnesota, if not even slightly experiencing an increase. Looking back through his career at his contact and chase rates, he's been virtually the same pitcher for the duration of his 12 big league seasons.
In return for a pitcher like Santana, the Twins probably should do better than a throwaway prospect. Again, he's not a rental, and a veteran with his pedigree should truly be able to help a contending team down the stretch. He's not going to bring back a massive haul, but if he emerges as one of the better options on the market, Minnesota should have a few returns to choose from.
Arguably the best thing trading Santana allows the Twins to do is start over, and aim higher. Terry Ryan has made a habit (and it's a bad one) of going after middling options in free agency. It's time that someone new step in, and deviate from that strategy. In moving on from Santana, the Twins shed some significant salary requirements, and immediately open up a spot in the starting rotation.
Ideally, it's Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco that the Twins are able to move on from first, but that isn't a realistic possibility. The level of mediocrity achieved in inking them to free agent deals (and in extending Hughes) really hamstrung the Twins immediate future. While Santana is a middling option, he's still head and shoulders above the bet that was the two aforementioned names. Trading Santana though allows the process to start.
Once Santana is out of the picture, the Twins have an immediate opening in the starting rotation to be claimed by Jose Berrios. It allows him to settle in through 2016 and lay claim to a 2017 Opening Day spot. From there, you'd like to see Minnesota parlay Hughes and Nolasco into a one contract, top of the rotation starter. The caveat is that neither come off the books a season from now (Nolasco 2017, Hughes 2019). Looking at the landscape of what's available however, that's not necessarily a bad thing.
The starting pitching market in 2017 was Stephen Strasburg and everyone else. Now inked to a long term deal by the Nationals, the Twins need to be saved from themselves by overspending and overreaching yet again. In keeping Hughes and Nolasco for another year, the 2017 club could have another hot name at deadline time. While there isn't a ton of ideal options in 2018 either, Minnesota could chose to commit the $100+ million they have tied up in Hughes and Nolasco to one top tier option.
What the Twins do in the future remains a pretty significant mystery. Half of the equation is whether or not Terry Ryan gets to orchestrate what happens going forward (and the hope would be that he doesn't). What they can't do though is continue to operated along the same lines as they did to get to the place they are now. Ryan has committed over $150 million to three pitchers who all are no more than a middle-rotation starter on a playoff club.
Santana's time appears to be done, and with it should go the mindset that brought him in.
Recently, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that an American League assistant GM told him that Santana is seen as "perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market." It's interesting that this information comes from Cafardo. Not because he's been unreliable in the past, but instead, Cafardo's assigned Red Sox could definitely use some starting help. With that reality in play, it's fair to assume he may be pretty clued in to the starting market.
So, if the Twins are actually going to grab some offers for Ervin Santana, what can we actually expect? Right now, Santana is in just the second year of a four-year deal paying him $55 million. At 33 years old, he's not merely a rental, and a contending team could do considerably worse. In his time with the Twins, Santana has started 31 games and posted a 4.27 ERA. It's almost identically in line with his 4.29 FIP and inflated due to a 1.357 WHIP. His 6.6 K/9 isn't going to light the world on fire, but his 2.9 BB/9 has been more than acceptable. A middle of the rotation starter, you'll get what you expect with Santana.
Having pitched in both the American and National (briefly) Leagues, Santana's stuff should play just fine no matter where he ends up. His fastball velocity has remained consistent the past two seasons with Minnesota, if not even slightly experiencing an increase. Looking back through his career at his contact and chase rates, he's been virtually the same pitcher for the duration of his 12 big league seasons.
In return for a pitcher like Santana, the Twins probably should do better than a throwaway prospect. Again, he's not a rental, and a veteran with his pedigree should truly be able to help a contending team down the stretch. He's not going to bring back a massive haul, but if he emerges as one of the better options on the market, Minnesota should have a few returns to choose from.
Arguably the best thing trading Santana allows the Twins to do is start over, and aim higher. Terry Ryan has made a habit (and it's a bad one) of going after middling options in free agency. It's time that someone new step in, and deviate from that strategy. In moving on from Santana, the Twins shed some significant salary requirements, and immediately open up a spot in the starting rotation.
Ideally, it's Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco that the Twins are able to move on from first, but that isn't a realistic possibility. The level of mediocrity achieved in inking them to free agent deals (and in extending Hughes) really hamstrung the Twins immediate future. While Santana is a middling option, he's still head and shoulders above the bet that was the two aforementioned names. Trading Santana though allows the process to start.
Once Santana is out of the picture, the Twins have an immediate opening in the starting rotation to be claimed by Jose Berrios. It allows him to settle in through 2016 and lay claim to a 2017 Opening Day spot. From there, you'd like to see Minnesota parlay Hughes and Nolasco into a one contract, top of the rotation starter. The caveat is that neither come off the books a season from now (Nolasco 2017, Hughes 2019). Looking at the landscape of what's available however, that's not necessarily a bad thing.
The starting pitching market in 2017 was Stephen Strasburg and everyone else. Now inked to a long term deal by the Nationals, the Twins need to be saved from themselves by overspending and overreaching yet again. In keeping Hughes and Nolasco for another year, the 2017 club could have another hot name at deadline time. While there isn't a ton of ideal options in 2018 either, Minnesota could chose to commit the $100+ million they have tied up in Hughes and Nolasco to one top tier option.
What the Twins do in the future remains a pretty significant mystery. Half of the equation is whether or not Terry Ryan gets to orchestrate what happens going forward (and the hope would be that he doesn't). What they can't do though is continue to operated along the same lines as they did to get to the place they are now. Ryan has committed over $150 million to three pitchers who all are no more than a middle-rotation starter on a playoff club.
Santana's time appears to be done, and with it should go the mindset that brought him in.
Monday, June 27, 2016
Twins Need To Get Young Sooner, Not Later
The Minnesota Twins have now played 75 games in 2016, and they've won just 24 of them. Paul Molitor's club has the worst record in the major leagues, and Minnesota was the first team to reach the 50 loss plateau. After a season in which the Twins nearly made the playoffs, they're all but cooked by the end of June. It's time the organization makes a shift in its thought process.
Now in his second time around as general manager, Terry Ryan has made mediocrity a defining term in looking at his tenure. He's failed to ever fully commit to a rebuild, and an organization chock full of young prospects have yet to bear fruits at the highest level. While there's no doubt Ryan should be gone at season's end (and not given the good nature of doing so on his own accord), the problems shouldn't be further compounded this season; commit to the future.
A couple of weeks ago I touched on a handful of players the Twins need to trade. While there's a July 31st trade deadline approaching, Minnesota would be doing themselves a favor to make moves before then. Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, and Trevor Plouffe aren't going to raise whatever value they may currently have over the next month, and they're only holding the Twins back in the interim.
Right now, the best thing for a bad Twins club would be to open the floodgates and bring aboard the youth. Although waiting a month is far from a damaging situation, it's also wasted developmental time coming into the critical juncture that is 2017.
Eddie Rosario should be recall number one. Nobody was harder on him than I was, and the expectation that he would struggle in his sophomore big league season was very real. He swung far too freely and had an ugly plate approach. On top of all of that, he had an attitude that needed to be knocked down a notch. His leash was long, but eventually he found his way back to Triple-A. Since the demotion, he's proven he wants no business in staying there.
In his time with the Red Wings, Rosario has slashed .319/.342/.539 with 19 extra base hits (six of which have left the yard). He's struck out 23 times and has drawn six walks. His approach is never going to be one of patience, but he's made some minor tweaks, and the Twins have room.
How exactly do the Twins have room you ask? Well, the outfield is far from settled at this point. Waiver claim Robbie Grossman has really hit the skids of late. He's batting just .150 across his last 11 games, and despite an OBP north of .400, his average has dropped below .270. There's definitely reason to keep running him out there, but Minnesota's first goal should be to move him, and if not, he's more than adequate being a role player.
On the other hand, Byron Buxton, who's struggled still to hit big league pitching, may be worth of a few less starts per week. Rather than running Danny Santana out to center, Rosario could draw some of those starts, allowing Buxton to stay at the level he needs to figure out, without being given a full leash.
After Rosario, the next two biggest pieces wasting away on the farm come in the form of an infielder and a reliever. Jorge Polanco and J.T. Chargois absolutely belong up with the Twins. Polanco is coming up on a 2017 season in which he'll be out of options, and the Twins handling of Oswaldo Arcia doesn't spark any sense of trust for Polanco being dealt with in an ideal manner.
Polanco likely can't play short, and the Twins didn't exactly find out when presented with the opportunity that was Eduardo Escobar's DL stint. Brian Dozier is hitting like a mad man right now, so second remains out of the question. For Polanco, his playing time must come in the form of a trade involving either Plouffe and/or Nunez.
Neither Trevor Plouffe nor Eduardo Nunez will do anything but depreciate for the Twins. At this point in time, given the roster construction, moving one or both for the sake of opening up a roster spot remains of the highest value. Whatever return Minnesota is given will likely be low (even with Nunez's unexpected season), and shouldn't be a key piece in the decision making process.
For Chargois, he's been held down in favor of a guy like Buddy Boshers, or a DFA candidate in Kevin Jepsen. J.T. has dominated the AAA level, and despite an ugly MLB debut, should be inching his way towards the back end of the Twins bullpen. With Nick Burdi having spent virtually the whole year on the DL, and Glen Perkins facing an extremely up hill battle to resume his career (let alone close again), Chargois should be emerging as a 2017 closer.
Right now, Boshers has done about as well as the Twins could have asked. He's come out of indy ball and absolutely earned his opportunity. Expecting him to be a key piece in the Twins pen a year from now is foolhardy at best however. If you'd rather not send a bad message though, the smart move would be to DFA Jepsen, who has done nothing to earn his roster spot in 2016. A phantom injury could provide the Twins a look without moving on from the reliever acquired from the Rays a season ago, but Terry Ryan leaned too heavily on unrealistic expectations for Jepsen, and things finally broke.
Rounding out the necessary youth movement would be that of Jose Berrios. Since his demotion back to Triple-A, he's been anything but the dominating pitcher he was prior to his big league debut. His last outing was stellar however, and he's going to be a key component for the Twins going forward. It sounds like Minnesota may have takers on Ervin Santana, and they should continue to shop Ricky Nolasco (and really any starter that draws interest). When that spot opens up, it should be Berrios who hears his name called.
As things stand, the Twins are bad. They weren't expected to be in this position however, and have to find a way to make the most out of it. Giving run to guys that won't be key pieces of a team that needs to turn it around a year from now is not the way to do that. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan need to create roster spots for cornerstones of the future, and that transition needs to happen sooner rather than later.
In free agency, Ryan has aimed for mediocrity. In his roster decisions, Ryan has aimed for mediocrity. In his rebuild, Ryan has aimed right down the middle, for mediocrity. It's time to realize that plan of action hasn't worked, and do something different.
Now in his second time around as general manager, Terry Ryan has made mediocrity a defining term in looking at his tenure. He's failed to ever fully commit to a rebuild, and an organization chock full of young prospects have yet to bear fruits at the highest level. While there's no doubt Ryan should be gone at season's end (and not given the good nature of doing so on his own accord), the problems shouldn't be further compounded this season; commit to the future.
A couple of weeks ago I touched on a handful of players the Twins need to trade. While there's a July 31st trade deadline approaching, Minnesota would be doing themselves a favor to make moves before then. Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, and Trevor Plouffe aren't going to raise whatever value they may currently have over the next month, and they're only holding the Twins back in the interim.
Right now, the best thing for a bad Twins club would be to open the floodgates and bring aboard the youth. Although waiting a month is far from a damaging situation, it's also wasted developmental time coming into the critical juncture that is 2017.
Eddie Rosario should be recall number one. Nobody was harder on him than I was, and the expectation that he would struggle in his sophomore big league season was very real. He swung far too freely and had an ugly plate approach. On top of all of that, he had an attitude that needed to be knocked down a notch. His leash was long, but eventually he found his way back to Triple-A. Since the demotion, he's proven he wants no business in staying there.
In his time with the Red Wings, Rosario has slashed .319/.342/.539 with 19 extra base hits (six of which have left the yard). He's struck out 23 times and has drawn six walks. His approach is never going to be one of patience, but he's made some minor tweaks, and the Twins have room.
How exactly do the Twins have room you ask? Well, the outfield is far from settled at this point. Waiver claim Robbie Grossman has really hit the skids of late. He's batting just .150 across his last 11 games, and despite an OBP north of .400, his average has dropped below .270. There's definitely reason to keep running him out there, but Minnesota's first goal should be to move him, and if not, he's more than adequate being a role player.
On the other hand, Byron Buxton, who's struggled still to hit big league pitching, may be worth of a few less starts per week. Rather than running Danny Santana out to center, Rosario could draw some of those starts, allowing Buxton to stay at the level he needs to figure out, without being given a full leash.
After Rosario, the next two biggest pieces wasting away on the farm come in the form of an infielder and a reliever. Jorge Polanco and J.T. Chargois absolutely belong up with the Twins. Polanco is coming up on a 2017 season in which he'll be out of options, and the Twins handling of Oswaldo Arcia doesn't spark any sense of trust for Polanco being dealt with in an ideal manner.
Polanco likely can't play short, and the Twins didn't exactly find out when presented with the opportunity that was Eduardo Escobar's DL stint. Brian Dozier is hitting like a mad man right now, so second remains out of the question. For Polanco, his playing time must come in the form of a trade involving either Plouffe and/or Nunez.
Neither Trevor Plouffe nor Eduardo Nunez will do anything but depreciate for the Twins. At this point in time, given the roster construction, moving one or both for the sake of opening up a roster spot remains of the highest value. Whatever return Minnesota is given will likely be low (even with Nunez's unexpected season), and shouldn't be a key piece in the decision making process.
For Chargois, he's been held down in favor of a guy like Buddy Boshers, or a DFA candidate in Kevin Jepsen. J.T. has dominated the AAA level, and despite an ugly MLB debut, should be inching his way towards the back end of the Twins bullpen. With Nick Burdi having spent virtually the whole year on the DL, and Glen Perkins facing an extremely up hill battle to resume his career (let alone close again), Chargois should be emerging as a 2017 closer.
Right now, Boshers has done about as well as the Twins could have asked. He's come out of indy ball and absolutely earned his opportunity. Expecting him to be a key piece in the Twins pen a year from now is foolhardy at best however. If you'd rather not send a bad message though, the smart move would be to DFA Jepsen, who has done nothing to earn his roster spot in 2016. A phantom injury could provide the Twins a look without moving on from the reliever acquired from the Rays a season ago, but Terry Ryan leaned too heavily on unrealistic expectations for Jepsen, and things finally broke.
Rounding out the necessary youth movement would be that of Jose Berrios. Since his demotion back to Triple-A, he's been anything but the dominating pitcher he was prior to his big league debut. His last outing was stellar however, and he's going to be a key component for the Twins going forward. It sounds like Minnesota may have takers on Ervin Santana, and they should continue to shop Ricky Nolasco (and really any starter that draws interest). When that spot opens up, it should be Berrios who hears his name called.
As things stand, the Twins are bad. They weren't expected to be in this position however, and have to find a way to make the most out of it. Giving run to guys that won't be key pieces of a team that needs to turn it around a year from now is not the way to do that. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan need to create roster spots for cornerstones of the future, and that transition needs to happen sooner rather than later.
In free agency, Ryan has aimed for mediocrity. In his roster decisions, Ryan has aimed for mediocrity. In his rebuild, Ryan has aimed right down the middle, for mediocrity. It's time to realize that plan of action hasn't worked, and do something different.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Twins Having A Power Outage?
There was a time prior to the 2016 Major League Baseball season that it was wondered whether or not the Twins may set some records. Those records were along the lines of a power surge that an exciting and intriguing lineup seemed to set itself up for. Fast forward to now, and the Twins have been anywhere but at the top of the home run charts, and the only record they're looking to set is in the loss column.
The question is, just where do they sit as far as home runs are concerned?
Well, the Power Index has been keeping things up to date during the season, but it's probably time to take a look and break things down a bit further. As things stand, Byung Ho Park leads the Twins in homers, and Miguel Sano trails him by one. Those two are the only players that have eclipsed double digits for Minnesota, and the team as a whole has totaled 76 long balls.
As things stand currently, Park is on pace for 28 homers, Sano is trending towards 25 long balls, and the Twins as a whole are on pace to club 176 taters. Respectable numbers to be sure, but far off from what was imagined prior to the season. With numbers resting where they are, the Twins currently have the 18th most home runs in the big leagues, and the 13th best total in the American League.
When diving in a bit deeper, the Twins aren't hitting balls out of the yard at anything that looks like an efficient clip either. Having developer some standards in the Power Index, it was determined that .16 home runs per strikeout was a solid baseline for power hitters. Among Twins batters, only Byung Ho Park (.17) and Brian Dozier (.18) are above the low water mark. With power hitters come strikeouts, but unfortunately the Twins are doing the latter far too often.
Four teams currently have 100 or more homers this season. A season ago, the baseline for team efficiency when it came to homers was .11 per strikeout. The big time home run hitting teams such as the Blue Jays and Orioles were at or above .16 HR/K. This season, all four of the teams at or above 100 homers are hitting them at a .16 HR/K clip or better. In fact, three of the four are launching homers at a .18 HR/K rate or higher.
I'm not necessarily sure that the Twins set out to hit a bunch of home runs, likely they didn't. What they did do however, was to employ a lineup that was slanted heavily towards a power output. Sure, Miguel Sano and Byung Ho Park are probably the only two true power hitters, but Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, and a handful of others are more than capable of sending baseballs out of the park. Unfortunately, Minnesota didn't project the level of futility when not hitting homers to reach the levels it has.
To be fair, the Twins have slowed from their record strikeout pace they began the season on. Of the teams striking out more though, nearly all of them also have more homers on the season. It's probably not fair to question whether or not the Twins have a power outage, that's really never been their style in the first place. What was a lineup that looked to be full of boomsticks has been anything but though, and that's been a problem.
It took Minnesota 70 games to score double-digit runs for the first time in 2016, and it'll take them a handful more to reach the 100 home run plateau. Baseball has shifted to a game where teams can choose to live and die by the longball, and this season, it's done more harm than good for Paul Molitor and his crew.
The question is, just where do they sit as far as home runs are concerned?
Well, the Power Index has been keeping things up to date during the season, but it's probably time to take a look and break things down a bit further. As things stand, Byung Ho Park leads the Twins in homers, and Miguel Sano trails him by one. Those two are the only players that have eclipsed double digits for Minnesota, and the team as a whole has totaled 76 long balls.
As things stand currently, Park is on pace for 28 homers, Sano is trending towards 25 long balls, and the Twins as a whole are on pace to club 176 taters. Respectable numbers to be sure, but far off from what was imagined prior to the season. With numbers resting where they are, the Twins currently have the 18th most home runs in the big leagues, and the 13th best total in the American League.
When diving in a bit deeper, the Twins aren't hitting balls out of the yard at anything that looks like an efficient clip either. Having developer some standards in the Power Index, it was determined that .16 home runs per strikeout was a solid baseline for power hitters. Among Twins batters, only Byung Ho Park (.17) and Brian Dozier (.18) are above the low water mark. With power hitters come strikeouts, but unfortunately the Twins are doing the latter far too often.
Four teams currently have 100 or more homers this season. A season ago, the baseline for team efficiency when it came to homers was .11 per strikeout. The big time home run hitting teams such as the Blue Jays and Orioles were at or above .16 HR/K. This season, all four of the teams at or above 100 homers are hitting them at a .16 HR/K clip or better. In fact, three of the four are launching homers at a .18 HR/K rate or higher.
I'm not necessarily sure that the Twins set out to hit a bunch of home runs, likely they didn't. What they did do however, was to employ a lineup that was slanted heavily towards a power output. Sure, Miguel Sano and Byung Ho Park are probably the only two true power hitters, but Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, and a handful of others are more than capable of sending baseballs out of the park. Unfortunately, Minnesota didn't project the level of futility when not hitting homers to reach the levels it has.
To be fair, the Twins have slowed from their record strikeout pace they began the season on. Of the teams striking out more though, nearly all of them also have more homers on the season. It's probably not fair to question whether or not the Twins have a power outage, that's really never been their style in the first place. What was a lineup that looked to be full of boomsticks has been anything but though, and that's been a problem.
It took Minnesota 70 games to score double-digit runs for the first time in 2016, and it'll take them a handful more to reach the 100 home run plateau. Baseball has shifted to a game where teams can choose to live and die by the longball, and this season, it's done more harm than good for Paul Molitor and his crew.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Twins Begin Weighing Possibilities With Plouffe
Coming into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, there was plenty of reason to believe that the Minnesota Twins should have moved Trevor Plouffe. Playing third base while pushing teammate Miguel Sano to the outfield, it was over the offseason that Plouffe's value was likely at its peak. Fast forward to where we are now however, and the narrative couldn't be any more different.
Starting with Sano, I had plenty of belief that he could be a capable right fielder. To say he has been far off from that is probably somewhat controversial. Looking at the power hitting corner guys such as J.D. Martinez and Jose Bautista however, he's holding his own just fine. The argument for Sano in right was always that if the power played, the rest wouldn't matter. That has held relatively true for the most part. Right up until the point in which he got hurt.
Now with a balky hamstring that's going to be more susceptible to injury the rest of the way, Minnesota is absolutely faced with a decision. That involves figuring out a way to get Sano back into the infield, and have him focus more on his bat and glove, rather than running down fly balls.
This is where Trevor Plouffe enters the equation.
In 2016, Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR, the second highest mark of his career. His 22 longballs were his highest total since launching 24 back in 2012. With a 3.6 fWAR season in 2014, and continuing improvement defensively, it appeared as if Plouffe was a late bloomer and his best seasons may be ahead of him. Minnesota probably could have (and maybe should have) dealt Plouffe before the 2016 season started, but the market for third basemen was lukewarm at best, and the club decided to hold on.
Now 50 games into his 2016 season, Plouffe is slashing .239/.264/.362 with just five homers and eight doubles to his credit. Normally an extra base hit machine, he's looked anything but the player Twins fans have come to know him as. Posting a -0.6 fWAR thus far, it's been as much a struggle for Plouffe as it has the hapless Twins this season.
As things stand currently, Minnesota has reached a point in which a crossroads must be addressed. To be completely fair, the situation probably should have been cleared up prior to this point. Miguel Sano is likely going to go out on a rehab assignment in the coming week or so. When he returns, he's going to need a place in the lineup, and it's not going to be in the outfield. Paul Molitor could do some shuffling with Byung Ho Park, but really, this one is on Terry Ryan.
It's time, trade Trevor Plouffe.
Without being connected to the front office, it's hard to imagine what phone calls the Twins have made or received. However, there are some teams out there that absolutely have some needs. Kelly Johnson isn't going to be the lone answer for the Mets, and it would stand to reason that Minnesota should start there. When linked to the Angels during the offseason, Plouffe's return was speculated as equivalent to that of a relief prospect. Right now, that caution can almost be thrown to the wind.
Making $7.2 million with a final year of arbitration eligibility in front of him, Plouffe's value to the Twins is becoming addition by subtraction. Right now, whatever return Ryan could finagle for Plouffe should turn into an afterthought. Opening up third base, allowing Sano, Mauer, and Park to all coexist harmoniously, that should be the goal.
Over the past seven years, Trevor Plouffe has done a lot for the Twins. He's grown up in Minnesota, matured as a pro, and become a relevant big leaguer. Cut the ties, allow him to go to a winner, and start to make the kids a priority in the Twins lineup.
Monday, June 20, 2016
Alex Kirilloff Ready To Shine For Twins
For the 2016 Major League Baseball Draft, the Minnesota Twins were coming off of a winning season that awarded them just the 15th overall pick. Not selecting in the top 10 for the first time in a while, Minnesota had a few options that would be presented to them. When the dust settled, they ended up going with the power hitting outfielder Alex Kirilloff. The Pennsylvania native has plenty of intrigue, and he's ready to unleash it for the Twins.
Kirilloff's prep career came to an end one win short of a Pennsylvania State Championship. Losing in the title game, you can bet his hunger to get back on the field and compete in the Twins organization remains high. He's likely going to head to Elizabethton to start his professional career, and his bat should be the thing that carries him early on.
Recently, I was able to catch up with the Twins top pick. We talked about his game, the Twins, and a few things in between. Here's what he had to say:
Off The Baggy: Tell me a little bit about your game. Most of the national outlets have described you as a solid all around athlete with a great hit tool and solid arm strength. Likely starting your professional career in the outfield, how would you describe your game as a whole?
Alex Kirilloff: I pride myself on being as well rounded of a player as I can be. I work very hard on all parts of my game. I feel that my biggest asset is my bat.
OTB: I believe you really burst onto the power scene with a recent Home Run Derby performance. Was that your first home run contest and what was the experience like?
AK: I was 11 years old in my first home run derby. I had just started using a leg lift with my swing, which helped me hit the ball further immediately. I beat a 12 year old who was the favorite to win the whole thing. So the only two home run derby's I have ever been in I won.
OTB: Being from Pennsylvania, I'd assume your a Pirates fan. I saw that longtime Pittsburgh fan favorite Neil Walker congratulated you on Twitter. Who is a big leaguer that you have modeled your game after?
AK: Neil Walker is first class and I now have even more respect for him than I already had before. I like watching Andrew McCutchen, he is a pretty well rounded player himself so I am inspired by him.
OTB: When looking at the Twins, what do you know about the organization, its players, and the state of Minnesota as a whole?
AK: I know Minnesota is cold...but it's okay, I am used to it coming from Pittsburgh! With three world series titles, Hall of fame players throughout the decades, and great traditions built, I am excited to be a part of the culture, history, and richness of the organization.
OTB: Tell me about your draft day experience. I believe you got to watch it unfold with teammates and friends as you were still wrapping up your season. What was the call like, and did you have any indications it was going to come from the Twins?
AK: It was a great experience being able to share it with my teammates, coaches, family, girlfriend, and friends. The call was a dream come true.
OTB: There's been some talk already that Minnesota may have you skip the Gulf Coast League and head straight to Elizabethton for your professional debut. What are your goals in your first professional season?
AK: My goals are to train, develop, learn, adapt, and play to the best of my ability while embracing the lifestyle of professional baseball. Let the rest take care of itself.
OTB: Let's end it with this, when Twins fans look ate Alex Kirilloff the baseball player, what do you hope they notice most?
AK: I hope they notice the baseball player and person that they want representing their fanbase, city, and baseball team.
With a great head on his shoulders, it seems Kirilloff already is going to start off on a great foot for the Twins. He is headed to Minnesota this week and then will begin his professional career in the organization. He's going to be fun to watch, and should be another high ceiling prospect Minnesota can add to the farm system. Recently, he was included in the Off The Baggy Top 15 update.
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