Who Wins What? Awards And Divisions

With spring training behind us, and Opening Day upon us, it's time to take a stab at how the 2017 Major League Baseball season will shake out. At the current juncture, hope is renewed and every team starts with a clean slate. Before the first pitch, each organization has, if for just a moment, the same standing when looking to end the year with a trophy.

A season ago, I simply posted my award and Postseason picks on Twitter. I wanted to have the thought a little more fledged out this year though, so I figured I'd go with a full post. With that being said, let's get into it.

American League:
West- Astros
Houston has a lot to like. They have a glut of young stars, and I think the pitching is there to carry them as well. I'll miss Tal's Hill, but this club is going to be really good in 2017. I think the Rangers can hold serve with them, and the Mariners are a bit overrated in my opinion, but I have the Astros taking the division.

Central- Indians
Cleveland should again be good, but they also shouldn't really be challenged. The White Sox and the Twins aren't very good, while the Royals are fading, and the Tigers are old. The Indians should run away with the division.

East- Red Sox
If there's a team that went out and did something this offseason in the AL, it's the Red Sox. I love the Chris Sale move, and think Pablo bounces back nicely. Combine that with another stud outfielder in Benintendi, and you have a pretty nice recipe for success.

National League:
West- Dodgers
The Dodgers just have so many weapons at their arsenal. They have the best pitcher in the game, and a lineup that has good hitters up and down it. Add in Bellinger at some point, and this club is going to be fun to watch. I think one team of intrigue here is the Rockies, and they could play spoiler in the Postseason, even if they don't top the West.

Central- Cubs
I'm not picking against the reigning World Series champs. They have the best lineup in baseball, a great rotation, and a bullpen that should have a lockdown closer for more than just the final few months. Joe Maddon's team is in full repeat mode, and everyone else is chasing them.

East- Nationals
There should be some real concern with the Nats pen. Dusty Baker is going to have to get big performances out of whoever closes for him, and he's going to need the starters to hold serve. That said, the lineup is still potent, and Bryce Harper should be on a revenge tour this season. The Mets should be in play here, but I just don't think they have enough.

Postseason:
AL Wild Card- Rangers, Blue Jays
NL Wild Card- Rockies, Mets

World Series- Cubs over Astros
When the dust settles, the talent gap between Chicago and the next best team is just a little bit too wide. They'll likely pick up a piece or two down the stretch, and they still have Ian happy to add along the way. I have some concerns about Almora being an every day player, but Maddon should navigate and once again have Wrigleyville rockin.

Awards:
AL ROY- Andrew Benintendi
NL ROY- Dansby Swanson

AL Cy Young- Chris Archer
NL Cy Young- Clayton Kershaw

AL MVP- Mike Trout
NL MVP- Bryce Harper

Puzzling Pitching, and Disturbing Designating

The Minnesota Twins all but announced their 25 man Opening Day roster. In doing so, they dropped a couple of bombs. First, they would be going with 13 pitchers, and then secondly, they'd send ByungHo Park to Rochester despite no real good reason to do so. As the dust settled from the fallout, we're sitting here left to scratch out heads.

First and foremost, here's the Twins Opening Day roster:

Starters: Santana, Santiago, Gibson, Hughes, Mejia
Relievers: Kintzler, Pressly, Belisle, Breslow, Tonkin, Duffey, Rogers, Haley
Lineup: Castro (C), Mauer (1B), Dozier, (2B), Sano (3B), Polanco (SS), Rosario (LF), Buxton (CF), Kepler (RF), Grossman (DH)
Bench: Santana, Gimenez, Escobar

So, what to make of this? Let's start on the mound. Adalberto Mejia, the Twins return for Eduardo Nunez, cracks the Opening Day rotation. There's nothing wrong with this, and he's more than deserving. I wrote about how he could be a dark horse candidate even prior to Trevor May's injury. He had a strong spring, provides a second lefty, and while his ceiling isn't that high, he should be more than a serviceable back end starter.

What happened with Mejia however, allowed the Twins to balk on making a decision between him and Duffey. Instead of picking one for the 5th starter, the club then doubled down and sent Duffey to the pen. I really like him as a fit there, but putting him in the group to make a total of eight pitchers is nonsensical. There's no good reason to hang onto Michael Tonkin in this scenario, and if Duffey wasn't being stretched out to stay as a starter, then whittling the pen and using a higher value arm in Duffey makes sense.

Minnesota's bullpen could be among the worst in the big leagues this year. They did nothing to significantly improve it, and none of the high ceiling arms (save for Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressly) are a part of it. Duffey can move the water mark, but adding him to a glut of mediocrity is silly.

Then we get to the position players...

Immediately, the most egregious problem is that the roster has no ByungHo Park on it. While it could be argued that Kennys Vargas is a better fit, he is also void of inclusion, likely to start the year on the disabled list. The Twins DFA'd Park prior to spring training, he went out and made it look silly, and then was still left out in the cold.

By leaving Park in Rochester, the Minnesota Twins will DH Robbie Grossman to start the year. That's a fine situation, especially given his on base prowess. What Grossman doesn't bring to the plate is much power. He hit 11 homers (a career high) a season ago, and his .828 OPS was over .100 points higher than his career water mark. On top of not having Park's power in the lineup, they also don't have his bat off of the bench.

Worse than not having Park getting regular at bats after showing a much improved process this spring, is what Paul Molitor will have available to him off the bench. Only three players are going to be in reserve, with one of them being backup catcher Chris Gimenez. Eduardo Escobar is limited to a utility infield role, while Danny Santana can play everywhere, but is a defensive liability in all those spots as well.

Although American League teams definitely don't need the bench that a National League team does, the Twins bench has three players with an average OPS of .609. Without looking, that has to be among the worst in the big leagues. There's no value coming into a pinch hit situation, and that could leave the skipper more hamstrung than you'd want him to be.

At the end of the day, the Twins are going to note they wanted eight pitchers. They have a bullpen comprised of guys that don't bring a bunch of value, and they sapped their offensive value through this construction. It doesn't look great on paper, and it's hard to see it being the best scenario. That being said, we'll get to see how it plays out in very short order.

So You Wanna Make A Bet: 2017 Minnesota Twins

With Opening Day of the 2017 Major League Baseball season upon us, it's time to take a look at what could be ahead for the home nine. There's plenty of projection systems out there giving us indications of what may happen, but only through a sports book can you make concrete guesses that equal out to dollars and cents. It's time to take a look at the over/unders for all things Twins related.

Pulled from Bovada, there's both individual as well as team specific over/unders for the 2017 season. Although the Twins don't have anywhere close to a national following, there's still a good number of big name players with specific achievements tabulated for them. Whether $5 or $500, here's your guide as to where you confidence should lie while putting up some cash on the Twinkies.

Brian Dozier HRs 29.5

Coming off a campaign in which he launched 42 longballs, Brian Dozier is in for some regression. The question that needs to be answered, is how far backwards does the Twins second basemen go? In 2016, he became the only player not named Harmon Killebrew to hit 40 HRs in a season for Minnesota. Prior to that effort, he launched 23 and 28 respectively. In 2016, Dozier's HR/FB% was a career best 18.4% and well off his 12.7% career mark. If there's a Twins player I'm betting on hitting 30 homers in 2017, it's a husky 3B, not Dozier.

Bet: Under 4* (Based on a 1* to 5* confidence rating)

Ervin Santana Wins 10.5

A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting staff in the big leagues. Not one pitcher picked up more than nine wins, and that was from Tyler Duffey, who was sent to Triple-A at one point. In two seasons with Minnesota, Santana has yet to record double-digit wins (albeit his 2015 was shortened). This season, he should have a solid offense behind him, but the question has to be in regards to how many leads the early season bullpen gives up. Pitcher wins are a fickle stat, and on a bad staff, I want no part of them.

Bet: Under 2*

Joe Mauer AVG .270

It's been three years since Joe Mauer has finished a season with an average north of .270. In 2014, the former MVP batted .277 with a .732 OPS across 120 G for the Twins. This season, Paul Molitor has talked plenty about how he'll need to give his first basemen regular rest, and target a lesser load to get the best out of him. If that is followed through upon, Mauer has a chance to put up his best season since being an All Star in 2013. Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber first basemen that just can't play every day anymore, Should Minnesota use Mauer correctly, and more against RHPs (.793 OPS vs RHP .610 OPS vs LHP in 2016), then he has a very realistic shot to impress.

Bet: Over 3*

Max Kepler HR 17.5

This is one of the most interesting numbers in the set. Kepler is not a traditional power hitter in that his swing is more reflective of a smooth stroke that simply runs into the ball. I like Kepler a lot, and think he'll make a nice career of doing damage in the gaps. He blasted 17 homers in just 113 games a year ago, and should have more opportunities this season. Kepler's lobgalls came in bunches though, and bolstered by a three-HR game, he hit 12 in a 26 game span. I'll go out on a limb here and say Byron Buxton hits more longballs than the German in 2017.

Bet: Under 2*

Miguel Sano HR 29.5

Do you know what the Twins third basemen is going to do a lot of in 2017? He's going to strike out. Miguel Sano is also going to send a lot of baseballs into the stratosphere. Last season, in 116 games, Sano hit 25 homers. Over that time, he was told to learn a new (and odd) position, and he wasn't healthy for a good portion of the season. Regardless of the setbacks, Sano came up just five dingers shy of the 30 mark. In 2017, I'd expect Sano to strike out no less than 200 times, but when he hits 35 homers, it's not going to matter much.

Bet: Over 4*

Minnesota Twins Wins 74.5

Wrapping up the list is the team number. Coming off of a 103 loss season, winning 75 games seems like a massive jump. The reality though, is that the 2016 outfit wasn't anything significantly different than the 2015 team that won 83 games. If there's something of a wildcard here, I think it's Paul Molitor. He's mismanaged his lineup and bullpen for some time, and that's going to cost a team needing to steal wins. At the end of the day though, I think the Twins have a better chance at winning 80 games, than I see them losing 90.

Bet: Over 3*

MLB The Show 17: A No Hitter That Just Misses A Perfect Game

This season, Sony San Diego is once again back with the widely popular MLB The Show franchise. In MLB The Show 17, the development team had a very strong game from a year ago to build off of, and while that didn't stop them from adding, they had the advantage of a really great starting point. What were dealt is bells and whistles that just miss the final coat of polish.

In 2016, the big addition to MLB The Show was the introduction of PBR, or physically based rendering. Stadiums, players, and all things graphics were brought to a much more heightened level of realism. PBR returns this year, and it expands to further highlight players and equipment shading in a way that takes graphical realism to new heights. It can't be stated any other way, MLB The Show 17 looks amazing.

Gameplay wise, the biggest addition for The Show 17 is the enhancement in the way the ball reacts off of the bat. Now with the game programmed to understand a bat has a rounded barrel, contact doesn't deliver straight results. Balls curve, liners tall, bloopers bloop, and well, duck farts happen. Despite never really feeling like there was a repetitive level of hit variety a season ago, there's absolutely no way you'll ever question it going forward. A liner in the gap that slices away from a speedy centerfielder is oh, so satisfying.

Now that we've covered the biggest difference in how the game plays, there's two big differences in ways in which you can play the game. First, Road to the Show has been beefed up to include a narrator, dialogue, and somewhat of a story. It's been noted multiple times that this lays the foundation for what Sony San Diego would like to do going forward. Personally, I could take or leave Road to the Show, and the dialogue seems like a somewhat unnecessary overall to the experience that was already there. If it's the beginning of something more though, it's a nice enough first step.

The other big addition game modes wise is Retro Mode. With Ken Griffey Jr. on the cover of The Show 17, the dev team threw it back to the roots of baseball video games. Playing with a simplified "X button only" experience, while also allowing an 8-bit overlay, the mode turns up the retro flare while staying true to what The Show 17 is. You'll probably have had enough with the mode after a few games, it's more of a gimmick to target some of the R.B.I. Baseball types, but it accomplishes what it sets out to do.

When it comes to both Diamond Dynasty and Franchise mode, enhancements are the best way to describe the changes. While nothing full scale has been redone, the realization is that when something isn't broke, there's no need to fix it. There's different ways to manage through franchise and complete more seasons in less time now, while Diamond Dynasty has a ton of new missions and ways to collect cards and build your best team.

Nothing you've read thus far should have you feeling like MLB The Show 17 is anything but a grand slam. Where this year's offering falls short, again, is with the execution on the server side. While its understandable that a developer can never truly load test servers until their product goes live, The Show has been around long enough that this isn't Sony San Diego's first rodeo. Since launch, online servers have been poor at best. Diamond Dynasty is inaccessible, and no online components of the game (rewards or otherwise) are tracking. It's an unfortunate situation given the poor foot that The Show 16 got off on.

At the end of the day, Sony San Diego has again raised the ball with the yearly installment of The Show. Far more than just a simple roster update, MLB The Show 17 is a must own for any baseball fan. Competition or not, it remains the gold standard in baseball, and maybe sporting games as a whole. If the team can get the servers back right in short order, and nail them in years going forward, they'll have as flawless of a product as they can hope for.

Positives:

• The new ball physics are incredible
• Graphical enhancements again take the realism to another level
• Added tweaks to popular game modes make Franchise, Diamond Dynasty, and RTTS even deeper

Negatives:

• The server issues again plague the launch

A Twins Pitching Triple Hitter

As the spring training slate comes to a close, I couldn't help but find myself wondering about the pitching for the Minnesota Twins. The organization put forth the worst starting ERA in the majors a season ago, and the relief corps wasn't far behind. Going into 2017, it needs to be markedly better, and there's three different storylines I'm keyed in on.

First, let's start with the good. Kyle Gibson has been one of the best storylines for the Minnesota Twins this spring. Across seven starts, he's compiled 28.1 IP worth of work, and owns a 1.59 ERA. Although the sinkerballer has just 19 strikeouts, he's only issued five free passes, and has been incredibly efficient.

Coming off of his worst year as a major leaguer, Gibson has some late breakout appeal. He posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 3.96 FIP in 2015, and there was some real steam behind him being a star performer a season ago. Unfortunately that never got off the ground, and while defense hurt him, he didn't help himself much either.

Although spring numbers can be taken with a very small grain of salt, he's looked like a man on a mission. Gibson has been efficient, calculated, and very, very good. I don't want to suggest that it's because of his Florida performance that causes him to breakout, but a very good outfield should help him, and this could be the year we see Kyle Gibson look like the Twins former top pitching prospect was expected to perform.

Now, somewhere in the middle ground, we find Jose Berrios. Recently he was optioned to Triple-A Rochester. I can understand that he wasn't ramped up after pitching (or not pitching enough) in the World Baseball Classic. However, if he was truly in play for the 5th starter spot, he could have easily been stretched out for 80 pitches by the time his first outing rolled around. The more I thought about the decision, the more frustration I found myself having.

Berrios is headed back to Triple-A again, and he'll be making his 31st start there, as parts of three major stints. For a top pitching prospect that's really blocked by no one, it's a relatively unprecedented move. Minnesota has a hopeful Phil Hughes, and an unnecessary Hector Santiago in their rotation. If the latter ended up bouncing Berrios, that's an unfortunate development.

At some point, the command has to develop for Berrios, and if Minnesota believes he's better off not working with Neil Allen every day, that's probably an indictment of their big league pitching coach. While I can understand the legitimacy of the reasoning behind his optioning, the optics behind it don't look good, and the Twins again decided against giving a high ceiling arm an opportunity.

Rounding out the trio is a situation that absolutely revolves around high ceilings. In the bullpen, I've often suggested the need to be either creative or good. As Minnesota heads north, it doesn't appear their seven relievers will be either of those things. In my last roster projection, I tabbed the group as being Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Wimmers, Haley, Breslow, and Rogers. Of that group, you could probably tab Pressly as good, with creative going to Rogers.

Over the offseason, the Twins knew relief pitching was an issue for them. Instead of throwing more money than maybe a player was worth at names like Romo, Holland, Feliz, or any number of others, they settled on one veteran While Matt Belisle has proved serviceable of late, he wasn't going to be near the top of anyone's relief help list. They enlisted Craig Breslow as a veteran who's reinvented himself, but even he was brought in on a minor league deal.

When the dust settled, Minnesota did nothing to greatly improve its pen from outside. Regardless of the fact that veteran relievers can be had easily on one-year deals (and flipped just as easily) Minnesota stood pat. Then they doubled down on the move by suggesting that none of J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, or Nick Burdi were ready for the big time.

It's absolutely fair to have reservations about those prospects, but if your pen isn't going to be good, giving them run is far from a bad ask. There was really nothing determined this spring that the Twins didn't already know on those prospects either, so the idea that they were on the outside looking in with no real talented veterans above them is a bit disheartening.

At the end of the day, the Twins are going to have to navigate some tough situations on the mound. The rotation remains relatively unchanged, and while Berrios can breathe life into it at some point, Santiago may be sucking it out for a while. Kyle Gibson could be on the verge of a breakthrough, and Paul Molitor desperately needs him to do so. In the pen, the lack of managerial acumen Molitor showed last season, combined with hit or miss arms, Minnesota could be looking at more blown leads than they care to admit to.

Baseball is a game of pitching and hitting, and if you don't have the former, the latter doesn't matter much. The Twins may win one, they're likely going to lose one of these storylines, and well, Jose, it rains...

Out of the Park Baseball 18: A Great Thing Gets Better

Year after year, the dawn of a new Major League Baseball season brings new hope. Whether or not your are the reigning World Series champions, or a team that settled in the doldrums of the big leagues, everyone begins Opening Day anew. With Out of the Park Baseball 18, that thrill is put in the users hands over and over, as you're tasked with constructing the perfect organization and deploying a finely tuned machine.

A year ago, with OOTP 17, I had the privilege of reviewing the Out of the Park series for a second straight year here at Off The Baggy. Some significant advancements were made with the previous iteration of the game, and once again, the OOTP Developments team knocked it out of the park. This season with OOTP 18, it's much more of the same.

One of my favorite features in this year's game is the heightened level of realism. While the OOTP series has never intended to be a graphical masterpiece, its level of advanced simulation and customization is top notch. In OOTP 18 however, a new level of importance is placed on realism. With an improved 3D Mode, the ballparks feel more team specific than ever before. Players look as closer to their real life counterparts as ever, and the game draws you into the experience in a whole new way.

Two of my biggest gripes from a season ago had to do with both injuries and AI. Far too often, it seemed as though fluky injuries popped up regularly, and had you scrambling to fill out rosters. If you weren't losing players to the disabled list, opposing organizations seemed to be offering asinine trades at a ridiculous clip. This time around, that experience has been greatly improved.

On the injury front, teams and players are dealt more realistic injuries, less often, and with a more workable timetable. Losing a top tier starting pitcher still happens, but it often isn't couple with the entire pitching staff hitting the skids at the same time. Also, injuries seem to be more tied to a player's individual physique as well as relating to their past health history. This makes this a bit easier to cope with, and understand, while eliminating the out of nowhere 60 day DL stints.

From an AI perspective, the game plays differently on nearly all fronts. The computer is going to constantly challenge your baseball acumen. In game, you will be expected to execute properly in key situations. You'll need to make the correct roster moves at the right time, and winning the World Series is going to require a culmination of everything coming together at once. While poor trade logic still exists to a certain extent, it appears to be much less prevalent, and that's a welcomed scenario.

The look of OOTP 18 isn't all that different from the years prior, but it's the small tweaks that are incredibly welcomed. With quick links to get you to the screen you are looking for, whether making managerial or higher up changes, the interface couldn't be more fluid. It's admittedly going to be a bit overwhelming for someone new to the series, but as the learning curve is mastered, the precision of the experience will be welcomed.

If it's not the big leagues that do it for you, OOTP 18 once again brings more than 100,000 real players to the table, and they span leagues all over the globe. New for OOTP 18 is the inclusion of the Negro Leagues, and the experience only makes the level of immersion grow deeper.

OOTP 18 is a game that you can very easily pick up and play for a matter of minutes, but the true greatness shines when you sit down and diver in only to get lost for hours. As you look to take your team to the next level, you'll never be at a place of satisfaction, always looking for another edge. No matter what your play style is, there's something in this game for everyone. The armchair General Manager in all of us is put to the test through the OOTP series, and it's executed flawlessly year after year. Once again, OOTP 18 is a must for any baseball fan looking for another outlet to love the game.

The Twins Final 25

My first Minnesota Twins 25 man roster projection came out way back in January, the second version was then looked at in the middle of March. Now with Spring Training virtually over, it's time to get serious about who's coming north. It seems pretty clear who Minnesota will bring, but before the final announcement is made, I need to take one last shot.

The Twins still have just over 40 guys left in camp, and 10 of them are non-roster guys. A few of them have already been told they'll be reassigned to Rochester, so that helps with clarity a bit further. Given what we know, here's how I see the final 25 shaking out.

Rotation (5)

• Ervin Santana
• Hector Santiago
• Kyle Gibson
• Phil Hughes
• Tyler Duffey

Paul Molitor recently told Mike Berardino that Santiago would start game 2 behind Santana, with Gibson to follow. That means Hughes gets the fourth game of the year and the fifth starter makes their debut against the White Sox. While the 5th starter could have been Trevor May or Adalberto Mejia, it's Tyler Duffey who has had a spring worthy of holding onto the job. I still think long term he profiles best in the pen, but to start 2017, this is where he begins.

Starting Lineup (9)

• Jason Castro C
• Joe Mauer 1B
• Brian Dozier 2B
• Jorge Polanco SS
• Miguel Sano 3B
• Eddie Rosario LF
• Byron Buxton CF
• Max Kepler RF
• ByungHo Park DH

No changes here from roster projection 2.0. Kennys Vargas was given the opportunity to win the DH spot and simply fell short. He went to the WBC, didn't play, and then got hurt when he returned. I remain skeptical Vargas is a productive big leaguer, and while the injury gives Minnesota something to pin it on, the reality is that Park is simply the better DH option.

If there's something of intrigue here, it's that Eddie Rosario put together a really nice WBC and spring in general. He's expanding the zone just a bit less, and looks locked in defensively. If he can bring back some of the magic from his rookie season, the Twins stand to benefit big time.

Bench (4)

• Eduardo Escobar
• Robbie Grossman
• Chris Gimenez
• Danny Santana

Much remains the same here from the roster projection earlier this month. Drew Stubbs failed to capitalize on his opportunity to take Grossman's spot and has been released. The biggest difference is the inclusion of Danny Santana.

The final bench spot should've (and likely would've) been Ehire Adrianza's. A strained oblique late in spring training is going to have him open the season on the DL, and that likely saves Santana from the DFA that was looming. I don't see him as a productive big leaguer, he plays poor defense everywhere and struggles with the bat, but he's going to get a couple weeks to prove it.

Bullpen (7)

• Brandon Kitnzler Closer
• Ryan Pressly Setup
• Matt Belisle
• Justin Haley
• Craig Breslow
• Taylor Rogers
• Alex Wimmers

The bullpen has seen a little bit of a shakeup since earlier this month. Chargois was optioned to Triple-A, and while it would've been nice to see him make the big league club, the reality was that a shaky spring did him in. I expect him to grab saves for Minnesota at some point in 2017, but he'll start the year on the farm.

Taking the place of Chargois comes down to a two man race between Michael Tonkin and Alex Wimmers. The former is out of options and likely wouldn't pass through waivers, but his spring hasn't been indicative of a guy the Twins can rely on. Coming back on a minor league deal, Wimmers has been solid enough in the limited spring action, and could offer some value in middle relief. His velocity has seen a spike since moving to the pen, he has been a better pitcher. It remains a tossup as to what the Twins do there, but Tonkin may have used his last chance.