May 3rd was the last game Alex Kirilloff played for
the Minnesota Twins prior to hitting the injured list with a wrist issue. He’s
now been back for 16 games, but it’s clear this isn’t the same player.
Something of an inevitable outcome seems to be looming.
Following his placement on the shelf, Minnesota sent
Kirilloff to see a hand specialist and he was given a cortisone shot. He has
been able to play through the injury without and notation of pain publicly.
That said, it’s fair to take a look at the results and see that this simply isn’t
the same player.
When the Twins were scuffling through injuries and looking
to crawl back towards contention in 2021, it made sense for them to push their
top hitting prospect to be back on the field. These at bats are vital for his
development, and as a player that will be relied upon heavily in 2022, big
strides this year are monumental. At some point though, the sagging results
become detrimental in terms of confidence and expected outcomes.
Let’s look at the numbers. On May 3 Kirilloff was slashing
.214/.227/.571 with a 56.7% hard hit rate and a 26.7% barrel rate. His average
exit velocity on batted ball events was a strong 96.5 mph. Fast forward to today
and he’s got 68 plate appearances since returning to the lineup. The slash line
includes a better average and OBP at .254/.309, but the .302 slugging is the
real problem. Kirilloff has just three extra-base hits, all doubles, and his
hard hit rate has fallen to 26.1%. The barrel rate is way down to just 6.5% and
his average exit velocity has dropped to 90.1 mph.
As is the case with wrist injuries, and as we’ve heard
Justin Morneau talk about on recent Twins broadcasts, there’s just no way to
generate power without that hand strength. Nelson Cruz dealt with a tendon issue
in 2019. It eventually ruptured and that outcome was a positive in terms of
future ability. While Kirilloff’s situation is not the same, the current
results lag because of the present condition.
I am not a doctor and have no idea what the timetable for
healing from surgery looks like. Maybe Minnesota is having him play because the
offseason is going to give enough runway for a healthy 2022 regardless. At some
point though, you have to question whether the outcomes aren’t providing a more
damaging view of the current process. The Twins aren’t going anywhere in 2021,
and it’s evident that this version of Alex Kirilloff isn’t the one that anyone
involved wants to see either.
Only the player knows what the actual pain threshold looks
and feels like at this point, but you don’t need to dive to deep beyond the box
score to see that this isn’t what anybody signed up for.
