Should Twins Again Scoop Up Schoop?

 

This offseason one of the areas Minnesota must address is the utility role. A player that primarily plays the infield, with an ability to start for a significant stretch at either second or third base makes sense. Former Twins two-bagger Jonathan Schoop fits that bill, but should the organization be interested?

 

After a solid 2019 season with the Twins, Schoop signed a one-year deal with the Detroit Tigers. He stayed in the AL Central division, and it came at a $1.4M pay cut. Now having substantiated the success and being just 29 years old, it may be his best opportunity to look for a multi-year deal.

 

Schoop’s history is somewhat of an interesting one. He was an All-Star for the Orioles in 2017 posting an .841 OPS. Then in 2018 he took a step backwards, ultimately being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he was downright abysmal. Signing in the winter to be the Twins starter at second, he eventually would lose the role to rookie Luis Arraez. Playing in 44 games for the Tigers this past season, he was a steadying veteran presence on a bad club but put up a solid .799 OPS.

 

I don’t know that you can expect the .841 OPS again from Schoop as it was a career high and certainly represents an outlier over the course of his career. An OPS in the high .700’s with 20+ home run potential is a valuable asset, however. Schoop has starting experience and could spell either Arraez or Josh Donaldson for stretches if need be. Add in that he’s still in what should be considered his prime, and the familiarity with an organization could provide a smooth and productive transition.

 

Another interesting aspect of bringing Schoop back is exactly what his market will look like. He took a pay cut in 2020 despite rebounding well the season before. Now he’s coming off an even better year, albeit in a small sample, but ownership groups across the league are looking to spend less. Factor in that Schoop could also be eyeing a multi-year pact, and it’s hard to gauge what a realistic number for him may actually be.

 

In targeting Schoop, or any utility option, the Twins are needing to mitigate against what Marwin Gonzalez wound up being in 2020. His .606 OPS rendered him an unplayable asset, and the .713 OPS since 2017 really calls into question how much of a boost the sign-stealing scandal helped in producing a career best .907 OPS that year. With Arraez having knee issues in 2020, and Donaldson being a consistent injury concern due to calf issues, the next man up must be a high-quality player and not just a short-term fill in. On the surface it would be fair to suggest Schoop fits the bill.

 

There’s actually a decent amount of utility targets this winter, and more than a few of them have significant run playing in starting roles. Maybe Schoop doesn’t want to return to a team in which his job may be in jeopardy again. There’s plenty of reason to believe he could garner a few starts each week however and being a part of the Bomba Squad probably provides some pretty good memories.

 

The market is going to take time developing this offseason and expecting it to be depressed across the board is a pretty good bet. We may not have great inclinations as to what Minnesota will want to do for some time, but Schoop provides another avenue for them to explore.

Did Schoop Work for the 2019 Twins?

In early December 2018 the Minnesota Twins found their replacement for Brian Dozier. With the fan-favorite having been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to his free agency, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine needed to find another second basemen. Replacing Dozier’s pop wouldn’t be easy, but they tabbed a former All Star to do so when they inked Jonathan Schoop to a one-year deal. Now with the season behind us we can evaluate how it turned out.

At the time of his signing I wasn’t too terribly interested in the pact. Dozier provided a significant amount of power, but also displayed strong on-base skills. For a Twins team also losing Joe Mauer, getting guys that could fill the basepaths seemed like a must. Schoop owned just a career .294 OBP and he was coming off a poor .682 OPS. After being dealt from the Orioles to the Brewers for the stretch run, things got even worse.

Obviously, it was the goal of Minnesota to rekindle the 25-year-old All Star that picked up MVP votes in 2017. He’d played all but two games from 2016-2017 and could be counted on as an everyday contributor. Although range wasn’t his greatest asset at second base, there was a howitzer attached to his shoulder and the arm would help to substantially upgrade the defense that Dozier brought to the position for the Twins.

We didn’t know that Major League Baseball was going to juice the pill for 2019, but it helped a guy like Schoop to launch dingers at a relatively significant rate. With so many power hitters around him in the lineup however, his skillset became somewhat redundant and the emergence of Luis Arraez made him replaceable. The 23 longballs in just 121 games was plenty respectable, and the .777 OPS checked in as the second highest mark over the course of a full big-league season. At the end of the day though, it was the .304 OBP that likely did him in.

The bulk of his 2019 was spent batting in the final three spots of the lineup. Even outside of run production lineup positioning, Schoop became a punchline due to the times in which he would come through. Late and close situations saw him post just a .658 OPS while he owned just a .618 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs. By leverage, he was at his best (.813 OPS) in the lowest stress scenarios. If you needed a hollow home run it seemed that Schoop became a lock.

Having just turned 28 there is plenty of runway ahead for the Curacao native. It obviously won’t be with the Twins, and I’m not entirely sure he’s rebuilt his value on the back of his 2019 exploits. Power at second base isn’t exactly guaranteed, but the sport has also shifted much more towards an on-base production model. It was that skill Minnesota appeared to need most, and ultimately that downfall that led to him being replaced.

There’s no reason to categorize the $7.5 million Minnesota handed to Schoop as foolish, but I think we can effectively say it worked out as planned. That’s a bit more than you’d like for a replaceable asset, but given the dollars paid to Arraez it should be considered as a wash. Minnesota’s offense was otherworldly in 2019, and whatever Schoop provided became a relative footnote.

Decision Making on Parting Twins

With the band-aid now being ripped off and the offseason underway for the Minnesota Twins, no time will be wasted when considering how to reload for the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli’s club isn’t going to be an underdog going into the new year, and they should have plenty of momentum built towards a second straight AL Central Division title. When considering who may be on the way out, Derek Falvey has more than a handful of decisions to make.

There’s a very strong group of players that lay the foundation for the Twins core, but we’ve seen where deficiencies may lie, and opportunities exist. With a handful of guys set to take their talents elsewhere, but choice or designation, it will be on the collective decisions made by Minnesota to best position the roster for success. Not every guy with the ability to return should, and it will be in those difficult discussions that the skeleton of the roster is constructed.

Looking at each situation individually, here is what I’d both suggest and think that the Twins will do.

Nelson Cruz: $12MM option in 2020

This picked up today (October 9) and I’d imagine the front office couldn’t have ever been more excited to spend such a sum.

Twins are picking up Nelson Cruz’s $12M option for 2020. No surprise there.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) October 9, 2019

Jake Odorizz: Free Agent

After coaching him to a career season and a debut in the All-Star game, it would make plenty of sense for the Twins to retain his services. A qualifying offer somewhere around $18.5MM could be doled out, but that tends to lean more on draft pick compensation should the player decide to leave. Instead I’d think that Minnesota should make him a long-term part of their rotation and offer him something like $45MM over the next three years.

Kyle Gibson: Free Agent

The former 2009 1^st round draft pick will very likely be in another organization for the first time in his career. At 32-years-old it’s the end of an era and will be very different for all parties involved. Dealing with health issues all season didn’t do any favors to Gibson’s performance although he did set a new career best strikeout rate. Unfortunately, a rotation that needs to improve substantially just won’t have room.

Jason Castro- Free Agent

Wrapping up the three year deal he signed with the Twins, Castro’s free agency hits at the same time Mitch Garver has emerged. Jason Caught a career low 79 games in a split opportunity situation this year, but he posted his highest OPS since 2013. Garver should see something closer to 80% of the starts in 2020, but a veteran backup makes a ton of sense. The Twins could ask Jason what his thoughts are on a part time spot, or they could find someone or a similar ilk on the open market. My hunch is that his time here is done.

Jonathan Schoop- Free Agent

A one-year deal following a down season gave Schoop the opportunity to bounce back. He did that even while leaving some to be desired. His .777 OPS was nearly .100 points higher than 2018 but Luis Arraez emerged and took over his starting role. At 28 Schoop should still have a decent market at a down position, and even if his bat isn’t what it was in 2017, his arm keeps him significantly above average at the position. Good find for someone, but not going to be back in Minnesota.

C.J. Cron- Final Year Arbitration

After making just south of $5MM in 2019 Cron is looking at an increase near $6-8MM in 2020. He certainly didn’t finish the year the way he started, but a mangled thumb gave him issues since July. Cron will be only 30 years old and looked the part of a very strong contributor. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to move Miguel Sano to 1B and taking over as a primary DH for Nelson Cruz down the line seems a more logical step anyways. The market isn’t flush with options, and Cron can be had in his final arbitration year as he paves the way for Brent Rooker or Alex Kirilloff to take over. It’s not a guarantee, but I’d expect him back.

Martin Perez- $7.5MM Team Option

There’s no way the Twins are paying Perez nearly double what he made for them this season. Despite a strong start he was a disaster down the stretch and that led to more rotation questions than they hoped to handle. It would make some sense to bring him back at a lesser figure on a one-year pact that can be supplanted by developing arms on the farm. I don’t think the Twins will (or should) prioritize Perez, but he could be a factor depending on how the rest of the starting rotation is addressed.

Sam Dyson- Final Year Arbitration

At the deadline Minnesota added the best arm that was moved in the Giants Dyson. Unfortunately, he came with unannounced red flags and provided less than zero value in his time here. Now having undergone shoulder surgery, Minnesota will likely want no part of his 2020 situation. It’s too bad for the Twins, and at worst a bad look for Dyson. The Giants claim they didn’t know about an injury, and Sam suggests he’d been pitching through it for years. Good riddance to this one, and hopefully some compensation can be recouped through the league.

Sergio Romo- Free Agent

Entering his age 37 season Romo is no longer a spring chicken. Despite his weird knee tendencies, he’s also been a pretty strong beacon of health. Effective once again this season, the Twins should covet his presence in the clubhouse next year. Romo has a great personality and brought a level of excitement to the mound. There’s significant strikeout stuff on the back of a sweeping slider, and fortifying the relief corps a bit further this winter would be ideal.

Best Bets for the 2019 Twins

I’ve been waiting for this post all spring. It typically signifies that the season is just around the corner, and it’s always enjoyable to put something on the line when looking at what may lie ahead. Thanks to Bovada’s in depth odds offerings, we have a plethora of great Twins options to choose from. Looking back at the 2018 results things weren’t pretty. Thanks to a duo of underperformers and some bad luck, not much went our way. New season, new opportunity, let’s try to rectify that.

To provide some context for my thought process going into this, make sure you’re aware I have the Twins winning 92 games and taking the AL Central this year. If I’m going to be of that belief, I’ll need producers to back the potential reality. This obviously does leave positive-trending bets open to being exposed, but it also serves as a foundation for them being placed.

Jonathan Schoop O/U 22.5 HR

Minnesota quickly turned the page on Brian Dozier by targeting Schoop early this offseason. After the Brewers decided to non-tender him, the Twins scooped in and inked a new second basemen to a $7.5 million deal. 2018 was not kind to Schoop, and after being a first-time All Star in 2017, he plummeted to a .682 OPS. Obviously, the Minnesota front office is projecting a rebound for him in 2019, and the track record suggests that’s a fair assumption. Even while scuffling last year Schoop still parked 21 longballs, and that’s noteworthy. Yes, 17 of them came at Camden Yards, and yes, he hit just four in Miller Park, but this is a bet I’ll gladly make.

Over 22.5 HRs 3*

Eddie Rosario O/U 24.5 HR

Last season I took the under on this exact same bet, and Rosario hit 24 on the button. The left fielder swatted 27 back in 2017 and getting back towards that number seems like a fair bet. Rosario played in just 138 games last season and regressed a bit when it comes to plate discipline. After making strides for the 2017 season, he got back up to a 42.9% chase rate, and whiffed 12.7% of the time. Hopefully he can push those numbers back towards the 2017 marks and utilize a full season to generate complete production. I feel like Eddie is close to a finished product at this point, which makes this number seem like such a coin toss.

Over 24.5 HRs 2*

Jose Berrios O/U 190.5 K

During the 2018 campaign Minnesota’s ace tallied 202 strikeouts. He turned in four starts in which he reached double digits, but none of them came after June 24. On top of that, Berrios struck out five or less batters in 11 (of his 32) starts. The young Puerto Rican has the stuff to be among the games best, and a more consistent statistical output could elevate his overall impact. The double-digit games will still come but avoiding lumps in 2019 should make a dramatic impact as well. I like Berrios as a dark horse for the AL Cy Young (you can get him at 25/1), so I’d need to lean towards year-over-year improvement.

Over 190.5 K 2*

Jose Berrios O/U 12 W

This is another copycat bet from the 2018 season, and Berrios pushed on that number. In 32 starts he drew just 23 decisions and nearly posted a .500 record. This Twins club should be better than that one, and while pitching remains an unknown, there’s no denying who the ace of the staff is. Barring injury, Berrios will get the most turns, and this lineup should have no problem supporting good outings.

Over 12 W 3*

Nelson Cruz O/U 33.5 HR

When Derek Falvey went out and signed Cruz, he got the most prolific power hitter on the open market. No one has more dingers than Cruz since the 2014 Major League Baseball season, and he did all that work in the unfriendly confines of Safeco Field. Target Field’s left field line will be a welcomed site for the Dominican slugger, and it you though Brian Dozier was pull happy to the bleachers, well just get ready. Cruz is 38, and while father time is undefeated, give me the reliance on his power for the heart of this lineup. He hasn’t hit less than 37 taters since 2013 and he played in just 109 games at that point still working into regular playing time.

Over 33.5 HR 4*

Minnesota Twins O/U 84.5 W

The expectation of this bet should be obvious; I started this piece off suggesting 92 victories for Rocco Baldelli’s first season at the helm. Minnesota entered the 2018 season with an O/U like this mark, and it’s only because of the poor year that the number didn’t rise. Sure, the Twins should’ve done more to address their pitching. That said, Cleveland got worse, the White Sox aren’t yet ready, and the doldrums of the division are a dumpster fire. Indicative more of the small payout and long wait, the risk is simply to get skin in the game.

Over 84.5 W 1*

The Scoop on Schoop, and His Twins Fit

Entering the offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were tasked with finding infield help. They needed to replace the retired Joe Mauer, and the flipped Brian Dozier. Internal options put pretty much any infield position as an acquirable target, but in the end, second base and first base were the routes traveled. Now with Jonathan Schoop joining C.J. Cron, Minnesota has filled both needs, but there’s plenty to question here.

Schoop was acquired by the Brewers during the 2018 season. The intention in Milwaukee was to keep the 2017 All-Star around for the 2019 season. With a year of team control left, his arbitration contract was almost certain to be tendered. Unfortunately for Schoop, he owned just a .577 OPS in 46 games with the Crew and find himself out on the free agent market.

After making $8.5 million in 2018, the Twins getting a bounce-back candidate in his age-27 season at a paltry figure of $7.5 million, it’s hard to be disappointed. When viewing Schoop through a vacuum we can see a power hitting middle infielder that’s just a year removed from an .841 slugging percentage. He plays better defense than the Twins have employed at the position in some time, and the market itself wasn’t rich with ideal options.

It’s when you look at the fit with the Twins specifically that Schoop becomes a bit more of an odd fit.

Gone from the 2018 team are the likes of Dozier, Mauer, and Robbie Grossman. That trio was a mainstay in Paul Molitor’s lineup, and even with the down year from Dozier, the group provided an ability to get on base. Looking at the projected starters for Rocco Baldelli, the best OBP mark over the past two seasons comes from Eddie Rosario (.326). Given that the front office wound up with both Cron (.316 OBP 2017/18) and Schoop (.307 OBP) it’s worth considering that there may be a shift for power as opposed to plate discipline and on-base skills.

There’s an argument to be made that slugging percentage can begin tipping the scales away from OBP, but you’d like to have some sort of marriage throughout the lineup. Being too heavy on one side of the spectrum seemingly would lead to a feast or famine type of offensive output. Certainly, a rebounding Miguel Sano (.352 OBP in 2017, .385 OBP in 2015) would help matters. A designated hitter that can marry on-base skills and slugging prowess could also be an avenue of opportunity.

At the end of the days, Minnesota got one of the better second basemen on the market. Schoop has plenty more to like than players like Daniel Murphy or Jed Lowrie when considering all factors. At his best though, he’s a downgrade from even 2017 Brian Dozier (who wasn’t and shouldn’t have been considered by Minnesota), and the skillset that the Mississippi native used display in Twins Territory. If this is going to work swimmingly, Schoop needs to make 2018 a mirage and see the rest of the lineup help to hide his deficiency.

I’d bet the Twins are done with offensive additions unless a designated hitter falls into their lap, and now it will be up to the ability of the front office to raise the water level of the rotation and bullpen. Cleveland willingly taking steps backwards for 2019 helps this organization, and although the club doesn’t appear to be kicking the door in, beginning to pry it open would be a nice sign of things to come.