Twins Avoiding Rule 5 Losses

The Minnesota Twins have kicked off their 2016 offseason by introducing new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey, and General Manager Thad Levine. Outside of the front office and coaching staff changes, the club hasn't done much with the roster thus far. Before the snow flies, that makes sense, but come Friday they'll need to make decisions on their 40 man roster inclusions.

With the deadline to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft quickly approaching, the Twins will have to do some shuffling. As things stand at this moment, Minnesota has 36 spots claimed on their 40 man roster. They could clear up two more by removing Buddy Boshers and Juan Centeno. Another could be had if Trevor Plouffe is non-tendered. A final possibility, although not likely, would be moving on from Danny Santana even before he's out of options to start 2017. For the sake of this exercise, let's assume the Twins have six open 40 man spots by Friday.

There's well over 20 possible additions. Remember, anyone selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the duration of the upcoming season on the drafting team's major league roster, or risk being offered back to their initial organization (a la Zack Jones for the Twins this past season).

Now, let's get into the six I'm keeping:

Fernando Romero- SP

Romero is a no-brainer. He was ranked the second best Twins prospect by Twins Daily's Seth Stohs, was Baseball America's 4th, and my 5th. After finally getting back to good health, he was great for both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this season. Romero has a chance to rise quickly, and could see time with the Twins in late 2017 if everything continues to go smoothly.

Mitch Garver- C

This one is another no-brainer. Garver earned his way on to the Twins by having a great minor leaguer season in 2016. He was probably worthy of the September call over John Ryan Murphy, and he could challenge for a 25 man spot to start the season this year. He's got better than average defensive skills, while being capable with the bat. Garver is a former 9th round pick that should make an impact in Minnesota.

Daniel Palka- OF

Another player worthy of a September call up a season ago, Palka's downfall was not already being on the 40 man. Adam Brett Walker's skillset is very similar, but Palka's plate approach is just a bit better. The return from Arizona for Chris Herrmann, Palka's power is real, and as a bench bat or extra outfielder, the Twins could find themselves calling his name sooner rather than later.

Felix Jorge- SP

I think the reason Minnesota protects Jorge is that they are pitching starved and he can provide a solution. I'm a believer that while Jorge isn't an exciting top-of-the-rotation option, he's very capable at filling one out. He's a strike thrower, and has handled his moves up the organizational ladder well. Sure, he hasn't pitched above Double-A, but given his ceiling, I think you'd find plenty of organizations ready to give him a big league shot.

Zack Granite- OF

When Minnesota finds themselves looking for that 25th man in 2017, it could very well come down to guys like Granite. Not only was he the organizations Minor League Hitter of the Year, but he also stole 50+ bases and played exceptional defense. His speed is real, and his threat on the basepaths is something the Twins should welcome. Rather than a veteran retread such as Shane Robinson or Robbie Grossman, it's a guy like Zack Granite that should be giving starters days off at Target Field.

Zack Jones- RP

Left unprotected a year ago, Jones was taken by the Milwaukee Brewers. He couldn't get healthy and rejoined the Twins organization. With a new regime in place, something that should absolutely work in his favor, Zack's velocity alone should have him in the big leagues. He's a hard thrower and can generate strikeouts out of the pen. Control has always been an issue, but it's hard not to get behind what the ceiling looks like. If Jones is added, I'd be far from surprised to see him beat either Jake Reed or Nick Burdi to the big leagues.

Update: Zack Jones had surgery in September to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He'll almost certainly be left off the 40 man and won't be selected in the Rule 5 Draft as he won't be able to return to action until July at the earliest.

Engelb Vielma- SS

Vielma gets the nod here over Stuart Turner simply because I don't know what the Twins plan to do at shortstop. Jorge Polanco needs to play at the big league level, but he's a second basemen. If Brian Dozier stays with the organization, he'll be miscast at short, and Polanco's defense is a problem. Velma has never been known for his bat, and at Double-A last season, he owned just a .663 OPS. His calling card is his glove though, and it's incredibly good. If he can play on a rotational basis for the Twins and provide speed on the basepaths, he's got a chance to have major league value.

Outside of these six, there's plenty more deserving candidates, and it will in part be decided by what openings the Twins have. I think Jason Wheeler and D.J. Baxendale both could have contributed to the Twins a year ago, and it would have given the organization to see what they have. Engelb Vielma could be lost as a shortstop due to his glove, and Stuart Turner could be plucked because of his ability behind the plate.

Beyond that, you're looking at players that would take a significant gamble, or that most other organizations have duplicates of. Lewis Thorpe and Amuarys Minier may have some real gusto behind their talent, but injury and development says neither are ready immediately. Guys like Aaron Slegers, Niko Goodrum, Travis Harrison and others are probably well represented by counterparts throughout the big leagues.

The Rule 5 Draft is a few weeks away, and every year, you're not going to see someone like Odubel Herrera emerge. However, an organization's goal is to keep those they see as part of the future, and try to gamble on those they think can squeak through. Come week's end, we'll have a better idea of where the Minnesota Twins stand.

Twins Pen Showing Its True Colors

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Just narrowly missing out on the playoffs, a better relief corps could have been enough to get them over the hump. This season there were some holdovers and some dart throws to the pen, but no player has been more important, both in reality and principle, than Taylor Rogers.

Rogers, a 25 year old rookie, has now pitched 35.1 innings for Paul Molitor's club. An 11th round draft pick out of Kentucky in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, Rogers went from minor league starter to big league reliever. Posting strong numbers at Double and Triple-A the past two seasons, Rogers looked deserving of a chance, but one that likely was destined to come in the pen.

If there's been something that's held true over his minor league career, it's been a level of consistency from Rogers. At Double-A New Britain in 2014, Rogers posted a 7.0 K/9 with a 2.3 BB/9 to total a 3.29 ERA. He followed that up a season ago with Triple-A Rochester to the tune of a 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and a 3.98 ERA. Although nothing necessarily stood out as dominant, it was apparent that Rogers had honed his stuff to the level that he was able to compete as he rose the organization ladder.

In reaching the big leagues though, it's in the pen that Rogers has taken a step forward.

Generally, pitchers will watch their numbers play up in relief. Being able to throw harder for a shorter period of time, the results generally improve. I've pegged Rogers as a solid relief option for the Twins for a while now, and through this season, he's made good on that bet. Thus far, the former Wildcat owns a 2.80 ERA and has pushed his strikeout rate to 9.2 per 9 while decreasing his walk total to just 1.3 BB/9. in the midst of his impressive big league performance, Rogers owned a 16.0 scoreless inning streak, and struck out 18 while walking just one over that time frame.

To summarize, Taylor Rogers has been nothing short of exceptional for the Twins.

As I mentioned earlier though, Rogers signifies more than just a success story for Minnesota. He's part of a bigger puzzle piece that both Paul Molitor and the organization have to be willing to rely upon. Taylor Rogers is a product of development with the Twins, and one that has resulted in a quality relief arm. The reality is that there are significantly more on the way, but none that are being given the same belief or opportunity.

Just a level down, the Twins have J.T. Chargois dominating Triple-A. He was the lone organizational representative in the Futures Game, and he has the makings of a future closer. Through 100 games on the season, Minnesota has allowed Chargois just two big league outs. Despite owning a 1.12 ERA with an 11.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 at Rochester, Chargois opportunities has yet to be recalled.

Another level down, Trevor Hildenberger, Zack Jones, and Jake Reed are experiencing similar success at Double-A Chattanooga. Working as the closer, Hildenberger owns a 0.70 ERA, has tallied 16 saves, and is striking out more than 10 per nine innings. Jones, now healthy after returning from the Brewers organization following a Rule 5 selection, owns a 1.26 ERA through 14.1 IP. His 10+ K/9 has also played well in the Southern League. Rounding out the group, Reed owns a 3.88 ERA, that has been a 2.54 ERA across his last 28.1 IP. In totality, the three of them have consistently outperformed the competition of their current level.

If Rogers has taught the Twins anything, it's that they need to trust their own process (or part of it). Minnesota has failed to develop a quality starter for quite some time now (here's to hoping Jose Berrios breaks that trend), but the relief options have been promising. Michael Tonkin was underutilized a season ago, but didn't have the ceiling of any of the aforementioned names either. Now though, with a bad team and mediocre pen, it's time to promote more of those from the lineage of Rogers.

There's no reason Hildenberger, Jones, and Reed aren't at Triple-A. There's reason to suggest that they could even make the leap to the big league level at this point. Chargois should be up and given run as well. Through 100 games, the Twins haven't been very good, and the ship isn't going to be turned around. A season from now though, it's these names that should anchor what could be a pen comprised of arms with much higher ceilings, and getting them situated now makes way too much sense.

Minnesota had some nice hits on players like Buddy Boshers, Fernando Abad, and Brandon Kintzler, but they mean little going forward. It's time to trust the process that Taylor Rogers is proving has worked, and take off the training wheels hitched to some very projectable pieces that will be incredibly valuable in the years ahead.