Twins Arbitration Decisions Loom

 

Today Major League Baseball Trade Rumors put out their numbers for projected arbitration salaries. While they aren’t going to be spot on, the website is often seen as the gold standard in this space. Minnesota has some big names to decide on.

#MNTwins project arbitration salaries from @mlbtraderumors:

Buxton $7.3M
Rogers $6.7M
Duffey $3.7M
Gant $3.7M
Garver $3.1M
Arraez $2.0M
Thielbar $1.2M
Astudillo $1.2M
Cave $1.1M
Minaya $1.1M
Coulombe $800k
Refsnyder $800k

— Ted (@tlschwerz) October 11, 2021

The most notable eligible player here is also the one guy deserving of a long term extension. Byron Buxton will at worst be tendered a new deal, and his projected $7.3 million would be a steal. So too would a new long-term extension with Minnesota for anything less than $200 million. The only question here is whether a contract is agreed to with the Twins, and if they’ll wind up paying him for the duration of 2022.

Taylor Rogers gets the second biggest number on Minnesota’s bill after being named a first-time All-Star in 2021. His $6.7 million seems like a steal in terms of value and talent but coming off an injury that shut down his season, it’s worth wondering if the Twins front office will feel the same way. Rogers should be back if there’s belief he’ll be healthy. Trading him with injury uncertainty could be a tough path. Ultimately, I think he returns.

Both Tyler Duffey and Mitch Garver should be seen as favorable options to be back with the Twins. The former is a reliever with a high ceiling that lost his way at times during 2021. He could be dealt if Minnesota finds a willing partner, but the fit at the back end of the bullpen still remains great. Garver is arguably one of the best catchers in baseball, and although he could be coveted by the opposition in any deals Derek Falvey may try to swing, Minnesota will tender him a deal regardless.

It’s still surprising to me that J.A. Happ netted the Twins anything, and John Gant is certainly a few rungs up on that ladder. He wasn’t amazing by any means, but there’s plenty of usable ability there. The question for the Twins is what they see his path going forward being. If he’s a starter then the $3.7 million doesn’t seem egregious at all. If he’s a reliever, that’s a middle-relief arm that doesn’t possess a ton of upside. I’d lean towards keeping him, but also wouldn’t be shocked if the front office feels otherwise.

Minnesota will have easy decisions on Luis Arraez and Caleb Thielbar. At $2 million and under, both players provide well above that from a value perspective. The Twins may dangle Arraez this offseason on the trade market, but he’s also a strong candidate to remain an integral super-utility piece. Thielbar has made himself into a full-time big leaguer, and now he’ll get a payday for it. (An aside, both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have Luis Aaraez pre-arb until 2023, so he shouldn't need more than the MLB minimum.)

The trio of lower options include Juan Minaya, Danny Coulombe, and Rob Refsnyder. The first was arguably the Twins best reliever down the stretch and has pitched his way into the 2022 bullpen. Coulombe isn’t anything to get excited about, but he’s a fine option to round out a group that will need some cheaper arms as well. Refsnyder is an interesting case as he turned into a pumpkin following his return from the Injured List. Maybe Minnesota keeps him around as a depth outfielder, but Buxton or not, he can’t be the fourth option on this Major League roster.

That leaves just two guys who I see as obvious DFA candidates. It makes no sense for Minnesota to retain the services of either Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for more than $1 million each. To be frank, neither player fits the roster nor is worthy of a spot at the Major League minimum, but with arbitration eligibility, a non-tender is the way these have to go. Cave is no longer productive at the plate, at the novelty of Astudillo wore off a long time ago.

If this comes to fruition as outlined Minnesota would retain 10 of their 12 arbitration eligible players for a total of $60.4 million.

Did the Real Mitch Garver Stand Up?

 

Suggesting that 2020 was an awful year for Mitch Garver would be putting it lightly. Even with the small sample size, he left plenty to be desired going into the season. But now, where has the dust settled?

In trying to play a season through a global pandemic plenty was made regarding the small sample size even a full slate of games would provide. Offering players just 60 games of runway largely invalidated the length necessary for baseball statistics to normalize. For Minnesota Twins catcher Mitch Garver, the total was just 23 games and his .511 OPS looked like a far cry from his Bomba Squad contributions a year prior.

Shelved for the stretch run, Garver ceded time to rookie Ryan Jeffers. The 2018 draftee was selected for his bat and the .791 OPS through his first 26 games at the big league level made things interesting. It appeared that the Twins would either have a nice tandem if Mitch returned to form, or that their new pick would unseat the veteran.

Fast forward to where we are today, and the roles have reversed. Through 79 games this season Jeffers has just a .666 OPS and was demoted to Triple-A in favor of non-hitting defensive option Ben Rortvedt. Garver meanwhile has rebounded to the tune of an .880 OPS but again has been hampered by injuries and played in just 61 games.

Missing most of his time this season due to an unfortunate foul ball ricochet, it’s fair to suggest that Garver’s injury situation has been fluky at best. Recently a nagging back has kept him out, but a return to the lineup for the final two weeks has now commenced. The production itself has returned, but we’re dealing with a sample that would’ve been considered too small just a season ago.

That leaves Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in an interesting position going into the offseason. 2020 saw the Twins opting for a split with veteran backstop Alex Avila. It’d be unfortunate if the roster needs a player like that given Minnesota’s internal options. What needs to happen however, is that this version of Mitch Garver continues to present itself over the course of a full season in 2022.

The knock on Garver has always been his defensive ability. Ratcheting up his framing prowess and receiving skills took his game to new heights, and the bat that has always been his calling card has stood out since his true emergence on the big league roster. With an electronic strike zone looking more likely than not, the Twins need a thumping version of Garver to remain productive.

At 30-years-old there’s not much reason to worry about the expense side of the equation. Under team control until he’s entering his age-34 season, Garver could be carried through arbitration without ever truly needing a long-term extension. Minnesota certainly could opt to keep Garver around if his production warrants it past his prime, but the incentive to do so will be entirely results based as opposed to necessary projection.

There’s plenty up in the air when it comes to the Twins in 2022. A team that was supposed to compete should have never flopped this hard. It’s been great to see Mitch Garver take back the reigns on his career however, and looking for a full runway of games, the goal will be to replicate the offensive performance once again.

Tide Turning for Twins Pair

 

It always had to be this way. This was the only plausible outcome. As the Twins look towards a resurgence, the talent had to rise to the occasion. For a pair of Minnesota mashers, it’s starting to happen.

 

Coming into the 2021 season Rocco Baldelli’s club had won two straight AL Central division titles while also having heightened expectations for the year ahead. There wasn’t supposed to be a slide, and the roster as constructed should’ve been among the best in baseball. The results haven’t followed that narrative, but there’s never been a doubt when it comes to what this team is capable of.

 

The reality for Minnesota is that regression struck for so many at roughly the same time. April was not a good month, and to be frank, May hasn’t been that great either. Combined with injuries and a slight covid scare, suggesting nothing has gone right would be putting it kindly. Now faced with a stretch of winnable games and opportunity for a turnaround, having a resurgence from a few guys at once would be nice.

 

Enter Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver.

 

Sano has long been a lightning rod of criticism for Twins fans. He’s a prolific power hitter that, at his best, remains an on-base and slugging machine. If he’s not hitting the fastball though, he’s a check swinging mess and the value tanks. After discussion surrounding a demotion cropped up, an eventual benching took place following the May 8 contest. We’ve seen this before with the Dominican, and he’s responded by righting the ship. Once again, that’s playing out before our eyes.

 

In 13 games since being put on the pine, Sano has reinvigorated his season. Across 51 plate appearances he has a .261/.333/.717 slash line to go with nine extra base hits, six of which have left the yard. The 16 strikeouts are still high, and you’d like to see more than four walks, but it’s apparent his process is back to a better place. Earlier this season Sano was leading the league in free passes, and it was a timing issue that had him failing to produce the bigger results. Now the timing is there, and while the discipline may have slid a bit, dreaming on a more perfect combination gives the Twins their middle of the order threat back.

 

Funny enough, a teammate of Sano’s also finds himself in a similar situation. Although Mitch Garver was never benched this season, he’s dealt with plenty of maladies along with an inability to crush the fastball as has become his calling card. With just a .644 OPS through April, a flipped script was necessary come May. Across 56 plate appearances this month Garver owns a .261/.393/.500 slash line with five extra base hits including three dingers. I think it’s a bit far-fetched to assume Mitch is the backstop with a near 1.000 OPS that he was in 2019, but anything north of .850 in that regard makes him among the best hitting catchers in baseball.

 

When Garver is right, he’s barreling the ball, but more importantly he’s working counts and taking walks. Garver has always excelled as a hitter due to his ability to be patient and find his pitch. The 43/13 K/BB is still out of whack, but in May it’s been an exceptional 16/10 K/BB and that will play all year long.

 

It’s hard to fathom a complete turnaround for Minnesota. The hole they dug themselves out of the gate has been immense. That said, if the expectation was for this team to be great coming into the year, all of those pieces are still in place. Getting guys back to a median level of expectations will bear fruit, and given the quality of competition within the division, a run is hardly unfathomable.

 

Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano have begun to turn their tide, now the Twins need others to continue following suit.

Twins Need to See Pillars Produce

 

Over the course of 2021 the Minnesota Twins have found more ways to lose in 32 games than most teams can accomplish over the course of a full season. If going into the year it was assumed this club would be good, a complete 180 this early doesn’t seem fair. The problem? Are these players actually good?

 

Here’s the deal, Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen has been bad. It’s among the worst in baseball across more than a handful of categories. He’s dealing with a group that the front office banked more on development than production, and regression has hit everyone not named Taylor Rogers. Despite a winning record in nine-inning games, this team gets crushed the minute relief help comes in.

 

Although the lineup has shown signs of life at times, the length of it is immediately called into question when looking at assumed producers. I think it was a fair assessment to assume 2020 Mitch Garver wasn’t right. Jorge Polanco dealt with an ankle injury, and Max Kepler clearly left something to be desired. Fast forward a year however, and that trio is as confusing as ever.

 

The backstop that broke out in 2019 probably was never going to resurface for the Twins. What Garver did that year was truly unreal, and for a late-blooming catcher, probably unrepeatable. It should’ve been assumed that Minnesota’s catching tandem could be among the best in baseball this season with how Ryan Jeffers looked in his 2020 debut. Garver hasn’t caught up to the fastball again though, and despite a .748 OPS, has just not really put it together yet.

 

Moving from shortstop to second base was going to be huge for Polanco defensively. A surgically repaired ankle also gave the Twins middle infielder a clean bill of health. He seems to be staying in on swings more than he did a year ago, but the results still leave plenty to be desired. Polanco’s .679 OPS is just north of his 2020 mark, and while he does have a 97 OPS+ on the season, a .236/.306 average and on-base percentage is not where the Twins can afford him to be. Extended in 2019, he really hasn’t been a good player since.

 

In the outfield there’s been more uncertainty than ever this season. Alex Kirilloff was left off the roster to start 2021, and Byron Buxton is now again on the shelf. Kepler has always been the mainstay from a health perspective, but his production has gone missing for the better part of the past two years. Just recently getting on the longball board this season, Kepler owns a disappointing .664 OPS through his first 22 games. The average is hovering near the Mendoza Line, and the .855 OPS from 2019 looks to be from an alternate universe.

 

The reality for Rocco is that the players he was counting on have by and large been there this season. In mass quantities however, they’ve fallen flat. It’s great that Byron Buxton looks like an MVP candidate, Josh Donaldson is a monster, and Nelson Cruz is ageless. Behind that though, it’s really hard to see anything that suggests this team is good anywhere but on paper. Assume producers need to start coming through, and it’s this trio that may be chief among them.

 

There’s still time for the 2021 Minnesota Twins to turn things around, but it’s getting late early, and it only gets darker if the light switch doesn’t flip for some guys very soon.

The Twins Are Good, Right?

 

I have been a big proponent of retiring anything to do with the Bomba Squad moniker from 2019. Let seasons evolve on their own. The 2021 team was supposed to be good, they are on paper, but will it take shape?

 

We are not yet through the month of April and I keep harping on the runway left for the 2021 season. Minnesota has played just over 12% of their games, and they are chasing a White Sox team that is just 4.5 games clear of them right now. That’s all to outline the current positioning isn’t dire. The problem is that the production just hasn’t been there.

 

Rocco Baldelli has gotten less than nothing from his catching tandem, and the left field situation has been a mess. Expecting Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, and Nelson Cruz all to be good was a pretty solid bet, and that’s played out as expected. Miguel Sano is currently on the IL, and while the numbers haven’t yet worked in his favor, the process is more than working.

 

The point we’re quickly getting to is wondering when things click?

 

If there’s three chief areas of concern, it’s the two previously outlined and the bullpen. Alex Colome was always going to regress from his otherworldly 2020 numbers, but his career production suggested that a baseline was hardly something to scoff at. Instead, he’s been historically bad while being more hittable than at any point during his career. The middle relief looks inept and holding onto small deficits just hasn’t been doable.

 

Looking at the lineup, Baldelli can’t continue to get an empty lineup spot from multiple positions. Mitch Garver no longer punishes lefties or fastballs, and while Alex Kirilloff is just a few games in to his first promotion, he’s currently dealing with an 0-fer. Whether it’s a longer leash for Ryan Jeffers, who has also been bad, or a big game for Kirilloff, the Twins need things to break their way.

 

This hasn’t been the Bomba Squad for quite some time, and the lineup doesn’t need to launch balls into the seats for opportunity to win. Luis Arraez and Andrelton Simmons provide plenty of good contact-based opportunities, and it’s on Minnesota to start capitalizing with what’s in front of them. Despite having the second worst record in baseball, the run differential is only -9 and the pythag presents a better 9-11 story.

 

Maybe it’s been bad luck, but it’s time to start creating their own. If the expectation was for this team to be good coming into the year, 20 games shouldn’t change that. At some point though, results have to follow.

One Pitch Speaks Volumes for Garver

It was a beautiful Easter Sunday in Milwaukee for the Minnesota Twins as they pounded out eight runs against the Brewers. One notable takeaway was what backstop Mitch Garver did in sending a ball over the fence.

 

A season ago the Twins got just 23 games from their catcher that posted a .995 OPS a season prior. Garver dealt with an intercostal strain most of the year and he simply was not the same hitter. Typically pulverizing opposing fastballs, he saw 217 of them in 2020, and it resulted in little success. Of those offerings, he swung 86 times, whiffing 29 times, or nearly 34% of the time the bat left his shoulder. Beating him with heat was far too easy.

 

Rewinding for context, Garver saw a whopping 839 fastballs in 2019 and swung at 303 of them. Of those 303 swings, he missed just 48 times, or just north of 15%. A jump of over 50% year over year is substantial, and while the now 30-year-old backstop may not be the .995 OPS hitter he was in 2019, he’s also certainly not the .511 OPS hitter he was in 2020.

Mitch Garver (1) #MNTwins https://t.co/QxzQ3pvCF9 pic.twitter.com/W8mF1CxAKe

— Tom Froemming (@TFTwins) April 4, 2021

Now fast forward to that pitch from Adrian Houser in the 5^th inning of Sunday’s game. The Brewers starter attacked Garver with a first pitch fastball registering at 94.3 mph, one of the hardest balls he threw all day. After taking a walk in his first plate appearance, Garver sat on the heat and clubbed the pitch 102 mph going the opposite field and leaving over the right field wall.

 

In 2019 when things were going right for Mitch, he posted a 47.3% hard hit rate and went up the middle or opposite field roughly 50% of the time. Last season the hard-hit rate dropped to 41% and he used the opposite field a measly 13.9% of the time becoming essentially a dead-pull hitter. That’s a logical strategy for someone dealing with core muscle issues, given the necessity to cheat and get the bat around.

 

At the end of the day, it was just one swing and maybe it ends up being a small footnote rather than indicative of what’s to come. I’d be willing to be however, that Mitch is in line for a season with an OPS back north of .800, and Minnesota will have two of the best hitting catches in baseball while being anchored by the man known as Sauce.

Pair of Rebound Candidates for Twins

 

After the 2019 Major League Baseball season gave us the Bomba Squad, there was plenty of regression expected for the Minnesota Twins lineup. Knowing the group hit a Major League record of homers made it unlikely for a repeat in 2020. Now coming off the weird season that was, there’s a pair of contributors the Twins need back in form.

 

It’s hard to draw any definitive conclusions based on a 60-game season, and even less so when dealing with injuries or missed time. The slate in and of itself resulted in little more than September action, and with a handful of untested players, the competition was different as well. That said, I’ll make the argument that the greatest avenue for success regarding the Twins lineup in 2021 is a resurgence from Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco.

 

Maybe Nelson Cruz is back, maybe he isn’t. Josh Donaldson is an elite talent when his calves are cooperating, but the injury prognosis isn’t one we can predict. That same line of thinking follows uber-talented centerfielder Byron Buxton as well. It’s the backstop and shortstop though, that resemble keys to an offense never really defining a launch this season.

 

Looking back at the leadup to 2020, I think it was wildly suggested that Garver wouldn’t replicate his .995 OPS from 2019. He has always had a good bat, and has a great mind for hitting, but the .630 slugging percentage was truly otherworldly. That said, projecting him to post a .511 OPS would’ve been a foolish undertaking as well. Assuming the truth lies somewhere in the middle, getting the New Mexico native back to an .800 OPS in 2021 is a must.

 

A couple areas where things fell off for Garver in his batted ball profile start with the hard-hit rate. It dropped roughly 6%, and he hit line drives nearly 10% more often. The lack of elevation combined with a lesser burst behind the batted ball resulted in more outs and a severely diminished HR/FB ratio. Mitch was also clearly not himself when swinging. A disciplined and contact driven hitter through and through, he jumped his whiff rate up to a career worst 13% while posted a 64% contact rate (15% below his career average). Knowing he was put on the shelf with a muscle injury, there’s plenty of reason to believe that could be the cause for such a slide.

 

Moving out from behind the plate we get to Jorge Polanco. On one hand the Minnesota shortstop had a career year as he made impressive strides defensively. On the flip side, he parlayed an .841 OPS from 2019 into just a .658 OPS in 2020. Clobbering 22 homers last season, just four balls left the park this year for the Dominican native. It was clear he was often slapping at the ball with no strong base below him. The results turned him into little more than a singles hitter with a mediocre average.

 

Polanco saw a massive dip in his hard-hit rate, dropping from 39.5% all the way down to                 a career worst 24.3%. With a batted ball profile that generally generates gap power, traditional doubles were now outs with a lot more batted ball activity that never began with a high probability for success. Unlike Garver, the plate discipline metrics didn’t change much. For Polanco, this was almost entirely a reflection of a process lacking solid contact. Like the Minnesota catcher though, Jorge was dealing with an injury. Undergoing offseason ankle surgery there should be hope that was what was ailing him and causing a change in his abilities.

 

Neither of these two players are going to be replaced in the 2021 Minnesota lineup. While Ryan Jeffers stepped up in Garver’s absence, he’s more a tandem duty player until the 26-game sample size is substantiated and forces more of a lead role. Polanco is entrenched as the Twins shortstop, and even top prospect Royce Lewis may not immediately challenge that. Getting production from these two key areas, something that was missing a season ago, is an absolute must.

Approaching a Critical Timing for Twins Injuries

This week is quite possibly the most important the Minnesota Twins will have embarked upon in 2020. Monday represents the halfway point in the 60-game sprint, while a week from then is the 2020 Trade Deadline. With plenty of guys on the shelf, it’s imperative Rocco’s boys keep winning and get healthy.

 

Starting out with three games on the road against the Cleveland Indians, Minnesota will miss both Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac but deal with Shane Bieber anyways. After leaving Ohio, they’ll travel to Michigan for a four-game set with the lowly Detroit Tigers. In terms of opponents, there couldn’t be more of a stark contrast, but putting distance between themselves and The Tribe will be reliant on early week wins and later expected results.

 

Leading the division by 1.5 games as of August 24, Minnesota is in a very good position to make the Postseason. This team’s goals are significantly loftier than that however, and it’s in that reality that the situation off the field may prove even more dire. Right now, Baldelli’s lineup is void of 33% of the Opening Day group, and the pitching staff seems to take a new hit each day. The latter is an issue, but the former could prove to be a real problem.

 

Josh Donaldson has been shelved since July 31, playing just seven games in his debut season with his new team. Miguel Sano swapped positions to accommodate him, and following a COVID positive, it took Sano roughly two weeks into the season to get his bat going. Donaldson currently owns a .614 OPS on the year and hasn’t settled in at the plate. If he misses much more beyond this week, expecting him to be acclimated and contribute from the outset of October would be somewhat of a fool’s errand.

 

Ryan Jeffers is the future tandem partner with Mitch Garver anyways, so ushering him in hasn’t been a problem. Garver also hasn’t gotten going however, and while it looked like he was starting to find it, the intercostal injury could cost him ample time to lock in. The injury is just a grade 1 problem, but it still remains to be seen when he’ll be back on the field.

 

In the outfield Byron Buxton has been among the Twins greatest assets this season. It’s a sigh of relief that his shoulder injury doesn’t involve the surgically repaired labrum, but it seemed to come out of nowhere and anything more than a 10-day breather would seem problematic. Jake Cave has not stepped up at the plate, and both Rosario and Kepler on the corners have yet to consistently contribute.

 

On the mound there’s a reinforcement coming in the form of Michael Pineda. However, Cody Stashak has been one of the club’s best relievers and him going down out of nowhere was a blow. Zack Littell worked plenty of high leverage a season ago, and now an elbow injury could prove to be a serious problem. Tyler Clippard gets bit by unluckiness being hit by a comebacker, and Homer Bailey has yet to do anything of substance for Minnesota. To say that the shuffling on the mound is starting to wear thing would probably be putting it lightly.

 

There’s not much in the form of starting pitching options that will be available at the deadline, and that means Minnesota will either need to stay internal or go the route of relief to bolster their staff for the stretch run. I’m not yet considering who is brought in being impactful to the same extent as who can get healthy. This week is a critical juncture for the players and training staff to get bodies back on the field.

 

Ideally Buxton misses the minimum, Donaldson returns to the lineup, and Clippard has now more than a bruise needing to heal. This club has all the talent in the world, but there’s only so many injuries one roster can truly withstand.

Topps Series 1 Kicks of Baseball Season

While we’re still a few days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective Spring Training homes, baseball season gets underway with the release of 2020 Topps Series 1 on Wednesday. The first offering of the hobby for the 2020 season means baseball is around the corner.

Kicking things off in a big way this year, Topps is hosting the Million Card Rip Party today at Jerry World. As group breaks have become more prominent within the hobby, the card company sought out a handful of popular breakers and gathered them all at AT&T Stadium. They’ll showcase the event live, and collectors will get some of their first looks at the new cards.

2020 Series 1 has a chance to go down as the best initial flagship offering ever. While it’s normally Series 2 or Update that highlights the sport’s best rookies, this season is somewhat unique. American League Rookie of the Year winner Yordan Alvarez will get his first rookie card, and the class also includes young stars like Gavin Lux and Bo Bichette. Deep and with plenty of star power, this group could have staying power for quite some time.

Specifically, from the Twins, Lewis Thorpe is the lone rookie card in the set. However, Marwin Gonzalez gets a Minnesota card, as do Nelson Cruz and Taylor Rogers. Autographs are aplenty from the Twins, and they include everyone from Luis Arraez to Bert Blyleven. Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Jake Odorizzi have some pretty big chase cards to search for, and there will be some chrome offerings of former Topps line Turkey Red littered into retail.

Given Thorpe is the only rookie for Minnesota, and he’s not seen as a desired commodity in the hobby, it would really only be the hits that drive a decent return from Twins subjects. However, the manufactured relics including the Sleeve Patch and Rookie Retrospectives sets could wind up being some of the best-looking manufactured offerings we’ve seen in years.

Another takeaway from Topps’ early season checklists is that the Twins will have some new names making signing appearances in 2020. It appears Trevor May, Mitch Garver, and Jorge Polanco will all be autographers in Topps product this year. With so much Rod Carew and Bert Blyleven focused content in the hobby of late, new names generating hype for Twins fans is a must. Hopefully more Joe Mauer cards will filter back into production at some point, but the Bomba Squad putting Minnesota back on the map is a great start.

You can find hobby boxes of 2020 Topps Series 1 at your local card shop, and blaster boxes as well as other retail configurations will be available at Target, Walmart, and Walgreens.

Developments Starting Strong for Minnesota

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.

Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.

Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11^th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8^th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.

Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6^th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.

Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.

Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.

We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.

An Emerging Backstop

There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins employed one of the best catchers Major League Baseball has ever seen. Up until the point that a brain injury forced him out from behind the plate, Joe Mauer was on a trajectory we hadn’t seen since Johnny Bench. Following the positional change, the organization has been starved for the next “it” factor behind the plate. Jason Castro has been the only designated long-term solution, but it’s an internally developed option that is at the doorstep of a breakthrough.

After getting called up for a cup of coffee in September of 2017, Mitch Garver enjoyed his rookie tour during the 2018 Twins campaign. Playing in 102 games as the backup to Castro, he split the work nearly right down the middle. Castro suffered an injury that left him playing just 19 games for Paul Molitor, and Garver ceded duties to veteran journeyman such as Bobby Wilson and Chris Gimenez. In the time that he was the guy, it seemed obvious there was talent to his credit, but a defensive liability had been holding him back.

Looking over some of the numbers, this was bore out in the data as well. Strike zone runs saved had Garver at -8, which was tied for third-worst among 86 catchers to log at least 100 innings behind the dish. His -16 DRS was better than only Nick Hundley across the same sample size, and ball skills were something that appeared to be an ever-present bugaboo. For however frustrating that may have been to fans watching on TV, you can bet Garver took it much harder.

In a recent piece The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and Eno Saris tagged teamed, Garver said, “Apparently, the people on Twitter realized I was the worst defensive catcher in the league, and they let me know about it — even though I already knew.” Minnesota now employs Tanner Swanson as their Minor League Catching Coordinator, and despite being a college coach previously, his impact is seen throughout the organization.

Over the course of spring training, many fans have wondered about the crouches they’ve seen from Twins behind the plate. With a focus on stealing more strikes, presenting a better ball, and providing the umpire a stronger vantage point, a highlight on each pitch has been the goal. Garver has worked plenty on his own over the course of the offseason, but his immediate development under Swanson has also drawn rave reviews throughout the organization as well. A step forward defensively gives us reason to wonder what’s next for the New Mexico product.

When the dust settled on 2018, Garver was worth 1.3 fWAR making him the 16^th best catcher in baseball. Despite being a cumulative statistic, Garver was able to compile that tally in an injury shortened season, while being negatively impacted by his poor defensive play. That only goes to show just how important his offensive impact may be.

No matter what level of the system you look at, Mitch has always hit. His .679 OPS at Elizabethton during the first year of pro ball was reflective of a lacking power stroke. From there he posted an .880 OPS at Low-A and went on to tally an .815 OPS during his first taste of Triple-A ball. Before being promoted to the Twins, Garver rounded out his minors career with a scintillating .928 OPS across 88 games for Rochester. Whatever defensive deficiencies had been present on the farm, were certainly overshadowed by how well the bat had played.

Although a .749 OPS isn’t earth-shattering by any means, it was the 10^th best number across baseball for backstops. He was just one point shy of Yadier Molina, and within legitimate striking distance of a top six mark across baseball. Mitch has always mashed lefties, posting a .938 OPS against them in his final Triple-A stint. With Minnesota last year though, he owned an .806 mark against righties, with just a .629 OPS against southpaws. Hitting just seven homers in 335 plate appearances, only on came off left-handed pitchers. If that doesn’t sound like opportunity, I don’t know what does.

Making loud contact with a hard-hit rate north of 40%, the opportunity for growth is there. Minnesota would like to see advancement on the 8% HR/FB ratio, as well as an increase in the fly ball and line drive outcomes. At just a 7.8% career swinging strike rate, and only a 22.4% chase rate, Mitch has the zone plenty honed in. The numbers suggest it’s about making the outcomes work more in his favor, using the inputs already at play.

Rocco Baldelli gets a backstop on the last year of a veteran deal in Jason Castro this season. Willians Astudillo is a fun swiss army knife that’s not an ideal catching option. Mitch Garver though, is the 1B to a likely platoon, that could take over as the starter and run away with the opportunity. Another year of acclimation at the plate makes the bat more than exciting, and if the defensive development is to be believed, the floor ends up skyrocketing towards the roof. You aren’t ever going to recreate a Joe Mauer type catcher, but Minnesota could have one of the better options in baseball if everything goes as planned.

Ranking the Rookies

The Minnesota Twins are now in the final week of their 2018 Major League Baseball season. With a Postseason berth eliminated from reality, the final seven games will be of little significance. Given the opponents coming to Target Field include the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, opportunity to play spoiler isn't present either. That said, these contests remain a proving grounds for players looking to crack the 2019 Opening Day roster.

Right now, there's some intrigue as to whether or not we're witnessing the end of Joe Mauer's heralded career with the hometown team. These could be his final days in a major league uniform, and although I believe he'd be of service to the club in 2019, it appears that no decision has been reached at the present time.

For the guys that are significantly Mauer's junior, they are still looking to make a final imprint on the organization in hopes of vaulting themselves into a more secure position next spring. While the final week may be somewhat of a slog for the battle tested veterans, no opportunity can be taken for granted when looking to stay at the game's highest level.

This season, the Twins have trotted out more than a handful of rookies. Here's a look back at how they've all performed.

Mitch Garver - C

Somewhat unfortunately for the organization, Garver was turned loose relatively early this year. Instead of being able to serve as Jason Castro's understudy, he was pushed into a starting role after a knee injury ended Jason's season. While Mitch looked raw behind the plate early on, it's been more than apparent that he made strides as the season went on. Working with veterans like Bobby Wilson, and briefly Chris Gimenez, his glove work improved dramatically.

On the offensive side of this, his .734 OPS was more than welcomed behind the dish for Minnesota. He was easily the most productive offensive asset as a backstop, and there appears to be some legitimate pop in his stick. Over a full season, he's a likely double-digit longball guy, and he's pushed himself into the conversation for more work next season. It remains to be seen if Minnesota will make changes at catcher, but Garver didn't hurt his positioning at all.

Jake Cave - OF

Maybe one of the most shrewd moves in the early tenure of the Twins new front office, Jake Cave was acquired as outfield depth from a Yankees system that simply didn't have room for him. With Byron Buxton having a lost year, and Zack Granite falling out of the picture, Cave harnessed the opportunity presented to him.

Early on, Cave should've gotten more run than veteran retread Ryan LaMarre, but that didn't stop him from turning heads on a near daily basis. In 85 games this season Cave owns a .771 OPS and has ripped 12 homers. At 25 years old, he's somewhat of an elder rookie, but there's plenty of reason to believe that this is just scratching the surface. He's easily Minnesota's 4th outfielder to open up 2019, and it's been apparent than he can start for stretches when need be as well.

Willians Astudillo - UT

After over 630 minor league games, Astudillo finally graced Major League Baseball with his presence. The folk tale of a chubby catcher than picked off runners without looking and never struck out came to the big leagues and initially started as an outfielder, third basemen, and second basemen. Now settled into a utility role, and backup catcher, Astudillo has seen regular run down the stretch.

It's just a 23 game sample size, but the .877 OPS is certainly eye opening. It's hard to imagine Minnesota carrying three catches on Opening Day next season, but there's worse ways to use a 40 man roster spot early on in November. This could very well end up being the last we hear of Astudillo, or he could continue to be an out-of-nowhere spark for a Twins team eyeing the Postseason a year from now.

Fernando Romero - SP

First it was Jose Berrios, and then it was Fernando Romero. When it came to Twins starting pitching prospects, those were the cream of the crop. Romero's electric fastball has pushed him into the conversation of a true ace, and he looked the part in small bursts this season.

The numbers themselves are all unremarkable, and he didn't light Triple-A on fire after returning. That said, the 55.2 IP in the majors as a 23 year old should prove invaluable when setting him up for future success. I'd imagine the Twins front office will be looking to upgrade the rotation again this winter, and that likely keeps Fernando at Rochester on Opening Day, As a first man up however, that's a heck of an arm to turn to.

The Best of the Rest- Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, and Adnrew Vasquez

None of these guys got much time to really cement any sort of significant expectations for the year ahead. Littell, Gonsalves, and Stewart should all open 2019 in the Triple-A rotation, and getting a look at big league talent could do wonders for their offseason preparation. While none of them have dominant stuff, honing in on command and pitchability should continue to remain a key focus for them. Again noting the Twins depth, there's at least one capable big league starter in this trio, and Minnesota having them to turn to next season isn't a bad thing at all.

Vasquez was the lone rookie to get a relief chance this season. Working just 2.0 IP despite entering six games, manager Paul Molitor obviously displayed a short leash. Over such a small sample size you can't draw any definitive conclusions, but it's more than apparent that the meteoric rise from High-A to start the year was impressive. At every level, Vasquez posted massive strikeout totals and tended to keep his walks in check. If he can replicate a portion of that for the Twins, they'll have developed a nice pen piece.

A Dish of the Waiting Game

The Minnesota Twins employed the best catcher in baseball up until 2013, and over his tenure behind the plate, Joe Mauer proved to be one of the five or ten best to ever play the position. Since then however, the role has become somewhat of a black hole for the organization. With Jason Castro shelved in 2018 more question marks have surfaced. The biggest unknown going forward is what do Derek Falvey and Thad Levine do now?

Castro will return in 2019 on the final year of a three-year, $24.5 million deal. He'll be coming off a knee surgery that allowed him to play in just 19 games this season. At 32 years old he'll have spent 699 games behind the dish, and the likelihood that his best days are behind him remains real.

Initially billed as a framing wizard behind the dish, Castro ranked just 15th in baseball per Baseball Prospectus' Framing Runs metric for 2017. While not awful, that's hardly what the Twins had hoped given the hype around that being his best asset. Castro's .720 OPS last season was 29th among major league catchers with at least 130 plate appearances. To summarize, there was plenty to be desired on both sides of the game even before the injury.

Fast forward to 2018, and the Twins catchers have combined to post a .607 OPS. That number comes in 6th worst in all of baseball. Bobby Wilson, who has been the main starter behind the plate in Castro's absence, owns the 6th worst OPS among 55 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances (.507). Mitch Garver has been a significantly better bat, and Willians Astudillo profiles as such also, but neither have been trusted with the gear on.

The lack of belief behind the plate really points to the crux of the Twins issues.

Regardless of what form Castro is in when he returns, Minnesota has virtually no one else they're willing to turn to. Astudillo has posted strong framing numbers at Triple-A, and held his own throwing out 35% of would be base stealers. In seven games with the Twins (and nearly a month on the roster), he never once drew time behind the plate. Garver has been on the 25 man for the balance of the season, yet has been called upon to start at catcher just 45 times.

There's plenty of reason to believe that the Twins should compete immediately in 2019. Projecting another year of virtually everything going wrong seems like a poor bet, and the division should remain plenty open with the only other talented team being the Cleveland Indians. Before they get there however, the Minnesota front office needs to figure out a better blueprint at catcher.

Down the stretch, Garver should be prioritized over Wilson. Whether or not he's deemed an acceptable catcher shouldn't matter in a lost season. Figuring out to what degree he can be counted upon is a must. Astudillo seems like a career minor leaguer, and probably isn't the answer either. Should the results point towards a different direction than Garver, the Twins will need to get creative over the winter.

Castro could be presumed the starter out of the gate again, but a free agent could be brought in to take away those duties. Potential names on the open market include Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, and Devin Mesoraco. Should the Twins decide not to supplant Castro, another Chris Gimenez type might make sense in place of Garver.

Stepping further away from the situation, the reality is there's a ton of moving pieces and very few certainties for Minnesota. Catcher isn't a position rich in value across the big leagues right now, and while the Twins have two intriguing prospects in Ben Rortvedt and Ryan Jeffers, neither are close enough to make a difference any time soon. The role can't continue to be a revolving door for a team with postseason aspirations however, and driving towards a real answer needs to be a goal sooner rather than later.

Twins Can Capitalize on Remaining Schedule

Entering play on July 9, the Minnesota Twins playoff odds sit at just 1.1%. With the sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, the numbers have jumped up from the 0.4% entering the series. At this point of the season however, the writing is on the wall. Paul Molitor's squad is going nowhere, and the focus should turn to process more significantly than results. While the win total may be meaningless at the end, using the slate of games ahead for good is a must.

Going into 2018, there was plenty of optimism surrounding this Twins team. They were coming off a Wild Card game, added more talent, and had another year of development for their young stars. What was also apparent, is that the amount of one-year deals and expiring contracts would allow the club to retool again in 2019. This version won't have a postseason berth to jump off of next year, but the window for opportunity remains open. For the Twins to capitalize on it, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine need to do a much better job utilizing the 25 man roster than they have thus far.

For starters, the lineup should begin to reflect players with a future being prioritized. It took far too long for a superior player in Jake Cave to get real run over a retread like Ryan LaMarre. Mitch Garver clearly has a capable bat, but he's still sitting far too often behind the inept Bobby Wilson. Cave is a 25 year old fringe prospect that could be a nice 4th outfielder and take over Robbie Grossman's role. Garver has concerns behind the plate, but if the feeling is that he can't catch, opportunities should be found at first base. Going into 2019 without a clear idea of what sort of contributions these two are capable of would be a mistake.

Despite the Twins pitching staff having been a significant area of improvement this season, there's going to be a good deal of turnover next year. Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney are on one year deals, while Lance Lynn is an expiring contract as well. Those guys are all trade candidates, but even if they aren't moved, it's a decent assumption they won't be back. Instead of letting someone like Matt Belisle eat innings, relievers such as John Curtiss, Alan Busenitz, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Jake Reed should all make major league appearances.

In the rotation, the Twins will return Jose Berrios and Fernando Romero for certain. Ervin Santana has a year left on his deal, but at this point, can't be counted on. Minnesota can offer Jake Odorizzi arbitration, and Kyle Gibson falls in that group as well. The depth in the rotation remains strong, but finding out who else can rise to the top should be a goal. Zack Littell should return for some consecutive starts that allow him to be comfortable rather than nervous, and Stephen Gonsalves should make his debut for an extended period as well. Getting the jitters out and accomplishing the acclimation process now would be a good idea.

At some point, the Twins should promote Nick Gordon. The 22 year old put up a .906 OPS this season for Double-A Chattanooga. Since moving up to Triple-A Rochester, he's posted just a .609 mark in 45 games. The next level has seen pretty poor results, and that should provide plenty of reason for caution. That said, the Twins are almost certainly going to let Brian Dozier walk this offseason, and Gordon would be expected to then take over. He may not win the job out of spring training, but I'd assume the goal is to have him in the big leagues by June 2019. Using a month of games that don't matter could be a very good way for him to get his feet wet.

Really what it all boils down to is that the front office learn something from what's left. While trying to stay in it, many of the roster moves have trended towards lower ability players that bring an off the field aspect to the clubhouse. With poor performance and injuries having mounted, it's hard to suggest that a different story could have been told even with the most optimal roster decisions. At this point however, the Twins are presented with a desirable situation for future performance.

No one should be expecting a rebuild in Minnesota any time soon, and the division sets up nicely to go for it again next year. Bringing in new parts from the free agent market, and pairing them with internal talent could very likely produce optimal results. As we've seen this season however, there's no guarantees from players within your organization, and even less so with fresh faces. Figuring out who you may be able to promote and count on now, could save a lot of face down the road.

It's common sense that Minnesota will win plenty more games in 2018. It's also a fair suggestion that when the dust settles they won't matter at all. What level of development, process, and groundwork is laid for the future will be the takeaway from this year. It's time to shift the focus to that level of thinking, and hopefully we see the decisions from the top to mimic that sentiment.

The Guys Carrying the Twins

We've made it, it's finally here, the last day without meaningful baseball for the next six months has arrived. On March 29th, the Minnesota Twins will kick off the 2018 Major League Baseball season with Jake Odorizzi toeing the rubber against Dylan Bundy and the Baltimore Orioles. Having offered some opinions on the league-wide awards, I figured now would be a good time to dive into my predictions for the hometown club.

Going into the year, expectations are relatively high for Paul Molitor's group. They're coming off a Postseason berth and have the advantage of playing in a weak division. Although the gap may not yet have been closed on the Cleveland Indians, there's no argument that it hasn't been made substantially smaller (at least on paper). If the Twins are going to make noise in the Central, American League, and across Major League Baseball as a whole this year, these are the guys who will be a big part of the process.

Team MVP- Miguel Sano

Despite being the reigning MVP, and entering a contract year, I think Sano overtakes Brian Dozier. Coming off an offseason that saw plenty of ups and downs, the third basemen appears all system go. There's no suspension looming, and the rod inserted into his leg doesn't appear to be holding him back in the slightest. Although the numbers don't mean much, Sano turned in an impressive spring, and they bat is absolutely going to play. I'd bet heavily on this being the first 30 home run season of his career, and pushing towards 50 is hardly out of the question if he can stay healthy. Twins fans have been waiting for his emergence since being a teenager, and Miguel Sano is finally ready to explode.

Pitcher of the Year- Jake Odorizzi

A season ago, Orodizzi posted the worst ERA of his career, was above 5.00 FIP for the first time, and walked a career worst 3.8 batters per nine. Why in the world would he be the best Twins pitcher at 28 years old? Well, I think there's plenty to be made of the back injury that he pitched through for the bulk of the season. Odorizzi isn't going to get much of a defensive boost as he already played in front of a good one with the Rays. I do believe he has middle-of-the-rotation stuff however, and the floor is very high with him. Jose Berrios has the ability to be a better pitcher than Odorizzi, but there's a decent level of volatility there as well.

Rookie of the Year- Mitch Garver

After finally making his debut in September 2017, I believed that Mitch Garver was deserving of a promotion much earlier. He absolutely raked at Triple-A Rochester, and it's his bat that brings intrigue behind the dish. Pairing with Jason Castro, Paul Molitor (won't but) should platoon his two backstops. Garver can dominate left-handed pitching, and he's more than capable behind the plate. He'll throw out his fair share of would be base stealers, and I'd expect him to be a bright spot for Minnesota. Deviating away from the veteran backstop that offers little in terms of offensive upside, Garver has the talent to be a true threat on his own.

Most Improved- Max Kepler

Last season saw the emergence of Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and even Jorge Polanco down the stretch. Miguel Sano has been a known commodity for a bit, even if I believe there's more in the tank. This season though, I think we see Max Kepler really begin to come into his own. For a while I've been of the belief that Kepler could be cut from a similar cloth as Christian Yelich. A good defender with adequate speed that has a real ability at the plate. Thus far Kepler has struggled with lefties, and he's yet to really set himself in the batters box. Hitting the 20 home run plateau for the first time is a good bet, and it's really only the tip of his offensive ice berg.

The Vargas Carousel Revolves Again

As the Minnesota Twins are faced with another roster shuffle, it appears Kennys Vargas is in fact on his way back to the big leagues. After Adalberto Mejia went down, Paul Molitor was faced with an open roster spot. Needing another starter in the coming days, the Twins could turn to already rostered Dillon Gee. With an opportunity to bring up another bat, it's Vargas who gets his seventh transaction, and fourth recall, of the year.

While there's plenty of reason to be excited about a player that looks like the shadow of David Ortiz, the reality is that the comparisons stop there. Now 27 years old, Vargas is hardly a prospect (and was never considered a top 100 entrant even when he had prospect status), and he's done little to separate himself at the highest level. Across parts of four big league seasons, Vargas owns a .738 OPS and a 228/55 K/BB ratio. With 32 homers to his credit, he hasn't exactly excelled at launching the long ball either.

In 2017, things have gotten even worse for what Minnesota may have hoped Vargas could provide. As a switch hitter, he's generally been more dangerous from the right side. Unfortunately this season, Vargas owns a .170/.231/.277 line against left handed pitchers, and just one of his eight long balls have come from that side of the dish. In 47 at bats versus lefties, he's compiled just three extra base hits, and the .507 OPS leaves an incredible amount to be desired.

Quite arguably a greater source of frustration is not necessarily Vargas' struggles, but how they could be avoided. In continuing to promote him, the Twins have passed by alternative options. Mitch Garver and ByungHo Park both represent a higher ceiling addition to the big league club, despite neither of them getting a chance. The Twins roster construction has begged for a right handed power bat virtually all season, and both of the aforementioned names also profiles better in the field.

Through 82 games for Triple-A Rochester, Garver owns a .909 OPS and has been an asset behind the plate. As a catcher, it could be argued that he should've replaced veteran backup Chris Gimenez some time ago. Knowing he can play first base and some outfield as well, his not being added to the big league roster is confusing at best. Garver almost certainly make the 25 man next spring, and not jump-starting his debut seems a bit foolish.

Although Park is not currently on the 40 man, that's hardly an issue for the Twins. Given the club has open spots, as well as an opportunity to trim if they need to, Park should've found his way back. After missing time to start the year, he's hit well at Rochester. Since June 17, Park owns a .309/.355/.495 slash line at Triple-A. The lack of power has been odd (he has just six homers), and the swing and miss tendencies have remained poor (63/11 K/BB). That said, he's 31 and coming up on the latter half of his current deal with the Twins.

Between Garver and Park, Minnesota has two avenues they could choose to push the envelope with. The former appears ready to jump in and contribute at a high level, while the latter represents more of an alternative to Vargas that has some crash and burn potential. What's somewhat frustrating however, is that Vargas represents a move that really doesn't move the needle at all. Despite realistically being a long shot for the playoffs, Minnesota is still playing meaningful games. By making the move they did, it seems Minnesota chose the lowest common denominator.

If everything breaks perfectly for Kennys Vargas, he's a serviceable bench bat. When a team has opportunity to aim higher and make a bigger impact, it would seem to reason that they should. Minnesota will probably welcome one or both of Garver and Park in September, but it'll represent at least a month of missed opportunity.

The Next Twins Bat Is Ready

As the summer has drug on, the Minnesota Twins have been noted to need some right handed hitting help. Whether the roster is constructed with eight relievers, or the more efficient seven, a boost could be given to the 25 man with a strong hitter on the right side of the plate. For quite some time, Mitch Garver has made a case to be that guy, and it's time to take notice.

Thus far this season, Kennys Vargas has been shuttled between Triple-A Rochester and the big leagues six times. He's often been the guy sent down when a spot is needed, and he's been the easy choice with his production lacking. While the home run power is obvious, Vargas has posted a .723 OPS in 176 at bats, but owns just a .291 OBP in 2017. He has hit eight long balls, but his 54/10 K/BB ratio continues to drag him down. Add in the fact that he's been well below average defensively, and Minnesota simply can't find a reason to carry him.

If there's an opportunity for a new name the next time the big club decides to make a move, it's absolutely worth considering Garver. A 9th round pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, Mitch Garver has predominantly been a catcher in the Twins system. This season at Triple-A, he's branched out to playing first base and left field more often, only expanding his flexibility. Behind the dish, he's at worst an average receiver, and he's consistently thrown out one-third of would-be base stealers in his time as a pro.

Garver started to gain some real intrigue after a strong second season as a professional with Cedar Rapids. Postin an .880 OPS with 16 homers, there was excitement surrounding the New Mexico native heading into 2015. After scuffling for Fort Myers, he used a strong Arizona Fall League showing to bolster the last two years of his career. With a .764 OPS at Double and Triple-A a year ago, Garver's .915 OPS in 2017 takes his career up a notch. Consistent all season, Garver has already hit 13 homers, and ripped 20 doubles for the Red Wings in 2017.

When looking at his numbers as a whole, it may be easy to overlook just how good Garver has been of late as well. Over the course of his last 31 games, Garver owns a .328/.389/.630 slash line with 12 doubles and eight long balls. On the season, his .884 OPS against righties is solid, and his 1.005 OPS against lefties is downright incredible.

With the Twins currently opting to go the extra pitcher route, they've found themselves using the likes of Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar as the designated hitter. Bench bats have included Chris Gimenez and Ehire Adrianza. When on the roster, Kennys Vargas has played first poorly. Robbie Grossman has shown significant limitations in the outfield, and the 25 man as a whole continues to clamor for a more versatile righty.

It would be foolish to expect Garver to come up and be some sort of a savior for the Twins club. A catcher first, any other position will see some drop off as a secondary position. Also, while hitting the snot out of the ball at Triple-A, he's a 26 year-old rookie that would likely need some time to adjust to the next level. What's also foolish to expect, is that Garver isn't up to the task.

Thanks to the lackluster play of the Cleveland Indians, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the AL Central division race. Squeezing out extra wins by raising the water level on the roster with players from within seems like a solid strategy. Mitch Garver represents a clear upgrade for the hometown nine, and it's time he gets his shot.

A Twins Surprise In Filling Out The Bench

The Minnesota Twins have now played a handful of games this spring, and with the calendar quickly approaching the middle of March, players will be cut and reassigned to minor league camp shortly. For Paul Molitor's club, squeaking out extra wins on a roster looking to rebound from a tough 2016 is going to be an absolute must. I'm not so convinced there aren't a few surprises in store as to how the bench is constructed.

Arguably the most predictable scenario, or at least the one causing the least amount of change, would include a bench of John Ryan Murphy, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, and Danny Santana. If the Twins go that route, they'd be looking to make as few waves as possible, and it's probably the safest bet as well. Although the ceiling for each player isn't high at all, the floor also isn't disastrous for the most part.

Getting creative though, there's a real situation in which none, or almost none, of those players go north with the Twins this spring. If Minnesota looks for upside, and some fresh talent, there's a surprise group of four players that could join together. Here's what that may look like:

Mitch Garver- Backup Catcher

Garver owned a ,764 OPS between Double and Triple-A in 2016. It was a nice offensive showing, and his defense was spectacular. He threw out 52% of would be base stealers in Chattanooga (44 attempts) and caught three of ten runners at Triple-A. Garver is 25 and has never been a household name, but he's pushed himself to the top of the Twins organization when it comes to up and coming backstops.

He's a right-handed batter and would give the Twins both a defensive minded option to spell Jason Castro, as well as bringing a respectable bat to the big leagues. It's a pretty big jump for him to go from 22 Triple-A games to the big leagues, so that could definitely work against him. Unless the Twins settle for John Ryan Murphy or Chris Gimenez, Garver absolutely makes a good deal of sense.

Ehire Adrianza- SS, 2B, 3B

New to the Twins organization, Adrianza has never been lauded as any sort of top prospect. What has been touted this offseason however is his glove, and specifically at shortstop. In a limited sample size, he's produced Andrelton Simmons-esque defensive metrics, and that's something the Twins haven't had for quite some time. Adrianza owns just a .605 OPS in 154 MLB games but he's got a .822 OPS across five Triple-A seasons.

Even if he can't bring much to the plate, Adrianza could be vital to the Twins with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco slated to man the left side of the infield. Pitching could end up struggling to get consistent outs from that side of the diamond, and Adrianza as a fill in or defensive replacement makes a good deal of sense.

Zach Granite- OF

The Minnesota Twins minor league player of the year would be making his big league debut if he joined the 25 man roster. Granite brings exceptional speed and defense to the big league club, and that's absolutely what separates him from the competition. Last season, as a 23 year old at Double-A, Granite posted a .729 OPS (his best as a pro). More of a singles hitter than a gap guy, Granite got on base and then advanced via the steal. He racked up 56 stolen bases and nearly walked (42) more often than he struck out (43).

When comparing Granite to the likes of Robbie Grossman, or even J.B. Shuck, Minnesota gets a fielder that can realistically play all three outfield spots. Granite is above average no matter where he is in the grass, and has the speed to let very little fall in. The big jump from Double-A is worrisome potentially, but as a hitter with a great eye, the on base skills could quickly rival those of Grossman.

Byungho Park- 1B/DH

Removed from the 40 man roster this offseason, the Twins gave Kennys Vargas the leg up in winning the designated hitter role. He still could fill that spot, but a healthy Park should be expected to be a different player. He struggled with velocity in his first big league season, although a wrist injury could have contributed to that. Park's spring homers thus far have come off of 93 and 96 mph heat, and while he'll still strikeout plenty, that power can play.

While Joe Mauer is Gold Glove caliber at 1B, he's not going to be able to play every day. Vargas has been below average defensively, while in roughly the same limited sample, Park has been as asset. He was a quality player in the field over in Korea, and represents a clear upgrade in the field behind Mauer as well.

This construction would require the Twins to figure out what to do with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana, and Eduardo Escobar. They can save money (roughly $2 million) by moving on from Escobar. Grossman has a smaller deal, and Santana has been a guy that I've contended Minnesota would be best served to move along from for quite some time.

The likelihood that this construction plays out if minute at best, but it remains an intriguing group of guys that I believe would serve the Twins well to start 2017. Admittedly the biggest hole here is the lack of a left-handed bat, but given Minnesota's options, it still may represent the most optimal scenario.

The Twins Next Breakout Prospect

Over the past few seasons, I've found myself having a player or two that emerges out of nowhere to be a key cog for the Minnesota Twins during the regular season. In 2015, it was Eddie Rosario, and last year, I was in on the Max Kepler bandwagon prior to Spring Training starting. This season, I can't seem to pinpoint someone I feel as confident about, but there's a guy that I think has a shot to help the Twins in a big way.

Before we get to that though, this season should provide some competition when it comes to an emerging offensive prospect. Down the stretch a season ago, I found myself frustrated that Mitch Garver wasn't given some time behind the plate. It was clear that Juan Centeno wasn't a big leaguer, and he was taking away at bats that could've been more productively utilized. On top of that, Garver absolutely earned his way to the big leagues.

In 117 games across Double and Triple-A last season, Garver posted a .764 OPS. While it wasn't the .880 OPS he tallied at Cedar Rapids in 2014, it was a great deal better than his .688 OPS at Fort Myers in 2015. On top of his offensive season (which was capped with an .815 OPS across 22 Triple-A contests), he was stellar behind the dish. Catching 60 games, he made just three errors, allowed only seven passed balls, and threw out 48% (26 of 54) of would be base stealers.

Working against Garver this season though is the Twins acquisition of Jason Castro. Castro was brought in to start now, and for the forseeable future. I have Garver tabbed as the backup catcher on Opening Day, but his path to playing time could be limited for the bulk of the season.

The next in this conversation is a guy I like a lot, but has a significant caveat to him. Should Brian Dozier be dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers or elsewhere, Engelb Vielma immediately becomes the starting shortstop for the Twins in my eyes. As things stand currently, Minnesota has Jorge Polanco slated to play out of position up the middle with Dozier. There's also reason to believe that Eduardo Escobar is more than capable to handle shortstop should the Twins call upon him. Vielma would bring another level defensively however.

Owning just a career .636 OPS across five minor league seasons, Vielma probably isn't ever going to hit. He has a decent speed tool although he doesn't swipe a lot of bases. Primarily a contact hitter that relies on singles, Vielma's glove is his ticket to a starting role. He'd be the least sexy of the breakout candidates being a leather first option, but if the door opens, he should have the chops to walk through it.

Given the circumstances and the entire landscape though, I think it's Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year Zach Granite that emerges through opportunity. He was a 14th round pick out of Seton Hall in 2013, and has been relatively consistent throughout his minor league career. While he's not a power guy or even a gap hitter, his speed will cause problems on the basepaths.

In 127 games at Double-A last season, Granite stretch 18 doubles to go with eight triples, but most impressively, swiped 52 bases. He's a legit threat every time he gets on, and that speed plays in the outfield as well. He would immediately pair with the likes of Byron Buxton and Max Kepler to make a ridiculously good trio defensively, and that alone should get him an extended look for Opening Day.

It's a decent amount to ask a 23 year old to jump from Double-A to the big leagues, and Granite has progressed one level at a time in his tenure with the Twins, but if there's a skillset that makes sense, it's his. He gives Paul Molitor a speed threat off the bench, and is reliable with the bat to battle in the box. Over his career, he's struck out just 149 times in 337 games while drawing 130 walks. He battles at the dish and causes havoc for opposing pitchers.

Unlike Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler before him, Granite doesn't have the high ceiling or prospect status. He does possess some pretty strong projectable tools though, and is someone that should have a really safe floor. On a Twins team looking for consistency, and always in need of defensive help, Granite seems to fit the bill.

Twins Avoiding Rule 5 Losses

The Minnesota Twins have kicked off their 2016 offseason by introducing new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey, and General Manager Thad Levine. Outside of the front office and coaching staff changes, the club hasn't done much with the roster thus far. Before the snow flies, that makes sense, but come Friday they'll need to make decisions on their 40 man roster inclusions.

With the deadline to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft quickly approaching, the Twins will have to do some shuffling. As things stand at this moment, Minnesota has 36 spots claimed on their 40 man roster. They could clear up two more by removing Buddy Boshers and Juan Centeno. Another could be had if Trevor Plouffe is non-tendered. A final possibility, although not likely, would be moving on from Danny Santana even before he's out of options to start 2017. For the sake of this exercise, let's assume the Twins have six open 40 man spots by Friday.

There's well over 20 possible additions. Remember, anyone selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the duration of the upcoming season on the drafting team's major league roster, or risk being offered back to their initial organization (a la Zack Jones for the Twins this past season).

Now, let's get into the six I'm keeping:

Fernando Romero- SP

Romero is a no-brainer. He was ranked the second best Twins prospect by Twins Daily's Seth Stohs, was Baseball America's 4th, and my 5th. After finally getting back to good health, he was great for both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this season. Romero has a chance to rise quickly, and could see time with the Twins in late 2017 if everything continues to go smoothly.

Mitch Garver- C

This one is another no-brainer. Garver earned his way on to the Twins by having a great minor leaguer season in 2016. He was probably worthy of the September call over John Ryan Murphy, and he could challenge for a 25 man spot to start the season this year. He's got better than average defensive skills, while being capable with the bat. Garver is a former 9th round pick that should make an impact in Minnesota.

Daniel Palka- OF

Another player worthy of a September call up a season ago, Palka's downfall was not already being on the 40 man. Adam Brett Walker's skillset is very similar, but Palka's plate approach is just a bit better. The return from Arizona for Chris Herrmann, Palka's power is real, and as a bench bat or extra outfielder, the Twins could find themselves calling his name sooner rather than later.

Felix Jorge- SP

I think the reason Minnesota protects Jorge is that they are pitching starved and he can provide a solution. I'm a believer that while Jorge isn't an exciting top-of-the-rotation option, he's very capable at filling one out. He's a strike thrower, and has handled his moves up the organizational ladder well. Sure, he hasn't pitched above Double-A, but given his ceiling, I think you'd find plenty of organizations ready to give him a big league shot.

Zack Granite- OF

When Minnesota finds themselves looking for that 25th man in 2017, it could very well come down to guys like Granite. Not only was he the organizations Minor League Hitter of the Year, but he also stole 50+ bases and played exceptional defense. His speed is real, and his threat on the basepaths is something the Twins should welcome. Rather than a veteran retread such as Shane Robinson or Robbie Grossman, it's a guy like Zack Granite that should be giving starters days off at Target Field.

Zack Jones- RP

Left unprotected a year ago, Jones was taken by the Milwaukee Brewers. He couldn't get healthy and rejoined the Twins organization. With a new regime in place, something that should absolutely work in his favor, Zack's velocity alone should have him in the big leagues. He's a hard thrower and can generate strikeouts out of the pen. Control has always been an issue, but it's hard not to get behind what the ceiling looks like. If Jones is added, I'd be far from surprised to see him beat either Jake Reed or Nick Burdi to the big leagues.

Update: Zack Jones had surgery in September to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He'll almost certainly be left off the 40 man and won't be selected in the Rule 5 Draft as he won't be able to return to action until July at the earliest.

Engelb Vielma- SS

Vielma gets the nod here over Stuart Turner simply because I don't know what the Twins plan to do at shortstop. Jorge Polanco needs to play at the big league level, but he's a second basemen. If Brian Dozier stays with the organization, he'll be miscast at short, and Polanco's defense is a problem. Velma has never been known for his bat, and at Double-A last season, he owned just a .663 OPS. His calling card is his glove though, and it's incredibly good. If he can play on a rotational basis for the Twins and provide speed on the basepaths, he's got a chance to have major league value.

Outside of these six, there's plenty more deserving candidates, and it will in part be decided by what openings the Twins have. I think Jason Wheeler and D.J. Baxendale both could have contributed to the Twins a year ago, and it would have given the organization to see what they have. Engelb Vielma could be lost as a shortstop due to his glove, and Stuart Turner could be plucked because of his ability behind the plate.

Beyond that, you're looking at players that would take a significant gamble, or that most other organizations have duplicates of. Lewis Thorpe and Amuarys Minier may have some real gusto behind their talent, but injury and development says neither are ready immediately. Guys like Aaron Slegers, Niko Goodrum, Travis Harrison and others are probably well represented by counterparts throughout the big leagues.

The Rule 5 Draft is a few weeks away, and every year, you're not going to see someone like Odubel Herrera emerge. However, an organization's goal is to keep those they see as part of the future, and try to gamble on those they think can squeak through. Come week's end, we'll have a better idea of where the Minnesota Twins stand.