Sorting Out Minnesota's Reserves

The Minnesota Twins recently broke camp down in Fort Myers and have since headed to Washington, D.C. to play their last exhibition game of 2018. With the Nationals lined up as the last action before heading to Baltimore, Paul Molitor will have to soon set his 25 man roster in stone. Given that the lineup is all but a guarantee, the bench is really the only area of intrigue.

Right now, there's two givens off the bench for the Twins. Both Ehire Adrianza and Mitch Garver are locked in. The former is a slick fielding shortstop, that has real questions with the bat. His .707 OPS across 70 games with the Twins last year was a career high, but it was also his first true big league opportunity. Without any real power, Adrianza keeping his OBP around the .324 mark of a year ago would be a nice tough. The latter is a former Minor League Player of the Year, and has plenty of thump at the dish. In 2017, Garver posted a .928 OPS at Triple-A, which followed up on a .764 OPS split between two levels in 2016. He has home run power and provides a nice platoon option from the right side with Jason Castro.

From there, things get more uncertain for both the available options and Paul Molitor. The safest bet would be to suggest both Robbie Grossman and Zack Granite are penciled in. Despite reclaiming Kennys Vargas off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds, the plan appears to again be an attempt at pushing him to Triple-A unclaimed. Ryan LaMarre has been nothing short of a superstar for Minnesota this spring, but the reality is 43 exhibition plate appearances shouldn't outweigh a 2-37 big league sample size bolstered by a career .719 OPS in the minors.

So, looking back at Granite and Grossman, the Twins have both a decision and an opportunity. Should both of those players make the club, Minnesota would have a bench of two switch hitters, a lefty, and a righty. Given a lefty heavy lineup, and two of them being corner outfielders, an area of opportunity would come in the form of a right-handed bat that can provide some thump from the corners.

Both Grossman and Granite making the club seems like an odd fit to me. Neither of them profile as hitters first, and that leaves Molitor pretty short handed when looking for something to happen in the late innings. Grossman's calling card has been his on-base prowess, but it dipped from .386 in 2016 to .361 a season ago. The last two years he's gone .696 and .994 respectively vs RHP when it comes to OPS. If the Twins believe the 2016 number is more reflective of his ability, then it makes sense to deploy him as the right-handed bat. If there's uncertainty there though, Grossman is a well-below average outfielder, that has average power, and provides no real baserunning asset.

Obviously the biggest question in going with Granite is in relation to his health. After making a diving catch and coming up with a shoulder contusion, his status is currently uncertain. If he's able to go however, he does provide the Twins with a different skillset. As a speedster capable of playing all three outfield spots, he's a plus-plus defender, and that speed also plays on the basepaths. He'd be valuable as a late inning pinch-runner and has stolen plenty of bases during his professional career. Despite an .867 OPS in 2017 at Triple-A, Granite is more of an on-base guy as well. A strong average is probably going to be his calling card as opposed to a high slugging percentage.

The safest and most expected route for Minnesota to traverse is likely to take both Grossman and Granite with them on the 25 man roster. That plan doesn't rock the boat, and represents the least amount of risk. Should Derek Falvey and Thad Levine be able to find someone either through trade or on the waiver wire, there's an opportunity to be had however. Replacing Grossman with a right-handed bat would allow Molitor to still have a defensive replacement and pinch-runner in the form of Granite, and the Twins would have a true hitting threat at their disposal.

Finding the right player to fill that role remains to be seen, but there's no doubt that the 25th man in Minnesota leaves a bit to be desired.

An Outfield Up For Grabs

For the most part, the Minnesota Twins 25 man roster is easy to project. I tried my hand in projection 1.0 at the end of February and feel pretty much the same about that group here at the beginning of March. That being said, I think there remains one position battle of intrigue when it comes to the position players. As Logan Morrison has entered to fill the regular DH role, there's a two man race for the fourth and final outfield spot.

The incumbent is none other than Robbie Grossman. Signed off the scrap heap by the Twins back in 2016, he was an answer while Minnesota was having to send out the young Eddie Rosario. In his first 99 games with the club, Grossman put forth the best numbers of his career. An on-base machine, Grossman's .280/.386/.443 slash line in his debut year for the Twins was easily a high water mark. As an encore last season, the .741 OPS was fine for a guy that provided rotational flexibility and assumed DH duties on a semi-regular basis. While nothing jumped off the page in the average or power categories, it was again a .361 OBP that could be noted as the strongest asset.

When looking at Grossman's time with the Twins, it's never been his presence at the plate proving to be a deficiency. In the field however, it's been another story altogether. In his first 637.1 innings spanning across 2016, abysmal doesn't even begin to categorize the output. Worth -21 DRS and with a UZR of -15.2, Grossman's performance was bad enough to make even Delmon Young and Josh Willingham blush. Knowing it needed to improve, Grossman made strides a season ago. Despite roughly half the amount of innings (357.0), the numbers checked in at -3 DRS and -3.3 UZR. Robbie isn't ever likely to be above average in the field, but in 2017, he proved he can be better than a black hole as well.

That's really what the Twins have to weigh when it comes to filling out their 25 man roster. Grossman leaves an immeasurable amount to be desired in the field, and a potential replacement would be a virtual opposite. Zack Granite is a blazing (albeit not Buxton-like) centerfielder, with the ability to track balls down from well out of his reach. Arm strength isn't anything of note, but it's hardly a downfall either. In just 174 inning sample size, Granite was worth 4 DRS and 1.2 UZR for Minnesota per Fangraphs.

At the plate, Zack has just 107 major league plate appearances under his belt. Making his debut a season ago for the Twins, Granite posted a .237/.321/.290 slash line. A .611 OPS isn't ever going to get it done at the highest level, but there's plenty of reason to believe he can acclimate. At Triple-AA Rochester for the first time in his career, Granite played 71 games and grabbed 313 plate appearances in 2017. He turned those opportunities into a .338/.392/.475 slash line. While those numbers are definitely gaudy, they follow the trend of a guy who's posted consistent on-base numbers while being more average than power over the course of his professional career.

For Granite to really round into form, he'll need to display a strong level of plate discipline over the course of his big league time. At Triple-A last season, he struck out just 34 times in 284 at bats, while drawing 24 walks. Jumping up a level, he actually posted just nine strikeouts for the Twins while drawing 12 free passes over his 93 at bats. Another good sign is that a strong knowledge of the strike zone has never left him. With just a 1.9% swinging strike rate, and a 95% contact rate, no one in baseball (with at least 100 plate appearances) posted better numbers.

Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins will likely let the battle run it's course through the end of the spring. Granite has options left, while Robbie Grossman would need to be DFA'd to make room. As things stand currently, that's probably the biggest feather in the cap for the latter. The Twins could certainly opt to go with Grossman out of the gate, and then call upon Granite as soon as they've seen enough. If they're looking at bringing the best or most ideal 25 north however, Zack definitely has a case to be made.

Twins Avoiding Rule 5 Losses

The Minnesota Twins have kicked off their 2016 offseason by introducing new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey, and General Manager Thad Levine. Outside of the front office and coaching staff changes, the club hasn't done much with the roster thus far. Before the snow flies, that makes sense, but come Friday they'll need to make decisions on their 40 man roster inclusions.

With the deadline to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft quickly approaching, the Twins will have to do some shuffling. As things stand at this moment, Minnesota has 36 spots claimed on their 40 man roster. They could clear up two more by removing Buddy Boshers and Juan Centeno. Another could be had if Trevor Plouffe is non-tendered. A final possibility, although not likely, would be moving on from Danny Santana even before he's out of options to start 2017. For the sake of this exercise, let's assume the Twins have six open 40 man spots by Friday.

There's well over 20 possible additions. Remember, anyone selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the duration of the upcoming season on the drafting team's major league roster, or risk being offered back to their initial organization (a la Zack Jones for the Twins this past season).

Now, let's get into the six I'm keeping:

Fernando Romero- SP

Romero is a no-brainer. He was ranked the second best Twins prospect by Twins Daily's Seth Stohs, was Baseball America's 4th, and my 5th. After finally getting back to good health, he was great for both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this season. Romero has a chance to rise quickly, and could see time with the Twins in late 2017 if everything continues to go smoothly.

Mitch Garver- C

This one is another no-brainer. Garver earned his way on to the Twins by having a great minor leaguer season in 2016. He was probably worthy of the September call over John Ryan Murphy, and he could challenge for a 25 man spot to start the season this year. He's got better than average defensive skills, while being capable with the bat. Garver is a former 9th round pick that should make an impact in Minnesota.

Daniel Palka- OF

Another player worthy of a September call up a season ago, Palka's downfall was not already being on the 40 man. Adam Brett Walker's skillset is very similar, but Palka's plate approach is just a bit better. The return from Arizona for Chris Herrmann, Palka's power is real, and as a bench bat or extra outfielder, the Twins could find themselves calling his name sooner rather than later.

Felix Jorge- SP

I think the reason Minnesota protects Jorge is that they are pitching starved and he can provide a solution. I'm a believer that while Jorge isn't an exciting top-of-the-rotation option, he's very capable at filling one out. He's a strike thrower, and has handled his moves up the organizational ladder well. Sure, he hasn't pitched above Double-A, but given his ceiling, I think you'd find plenty of organizations ready to give him a big league shot.

Zack Granite- OF

When Minnesota finds themselves looking for that 25th man in 2017, it could very well come down to guys like Granite. Not only was he the organizations Minor League Hitter of the Year, but he also stole 50+ bases and played exceptional defense. His speed is real, and his threat on the basepaths is something the Twins should welcome. Rather than a veteran retread such as Shane Robinson or Robbie Grossman, it's a guy like Zack Granite that should be giving starters days off at Target Field.

Zack Jones- RP

Left unprotected a year ago, Jones was taken by the Milwaukee Brewers. He couldn't get healthy and rejoined the Twins organization. With a new regime in place, something that should absolutely work in his favor, Zack's velocity alone should have him in the big leagues. He's a hard thrower and can generate strikeouts out of the pen. Control has always been an issue, but it's hard not to get behind what the ceiling looks like. If Jones is added, I'd be far from surprised to see him beat either Jake Reed or Nick Burdi to the big leagues.

Update: Zack Jones had surgery in September to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He'll almost certainly be left off the 40 man and won't be selected in the Rule 5 Draft as he won't be able to return to action until July at the earliest.

Engelb Vielma- SS

Vielma gets the nod here over Stuart Turner simply because I don't know what the Twins plan to do at shortstop. Jorge Polanco needs to play at the big league level, but he's a second basemen. If Brian Dozier stays with the organization, he'll be miscast at short, and Polanco's defense is a problem. Velma has never been known for his bat, and at Double-A last season, he owned just a .663 OPS. His calling card is his glove though, and it's incredibly good. If he can play on a rotational basis for the Twins and provide speed on the basepaths, he's got a chance to have major league value.

Outside of these six, there's plenty more deserving candidates, and it will in part be decided by what openings the Twins have. I think Jason Wheeler and D.J. Baxendale both could have contributed to the Twins a year ago, and it would have given the organization to see what they have. Engelb Vielma could be lost as a shortstop due to his glove, and Stuart Turner could be plucked because of his ability behind the plate.

Beyond that, you're looking at players that would take a significant gamble, or that most other organizations have duplicates of. Lewis Thorpe and Amuarys Minier may have some real gusto behind their talent, but injury and development says neither are ready immediately. Guys like Aaron Slegers, Niko Goodrum, Travis Harrison and others are probably well represented by counterparts throughout the big leagues.

The Rule 5 Draft is a few weeks away, and every year, you're not going to see someone like Odubel Herrera emerge. However, an organization's goal is to keep those they see as part of the future, and try to gamble on those they think can squeak through. Come week's end, we'll have a better idea of where the Minnesota Twins stand.

Prospects On The Way For 2017

A year ago, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. There was a ton of top tier talent, and the bulk of it was near major league ready. Miguel Sano had paved the way by making his debut in 2015, and there was plenty of youth on the way to the Twin Cities to join him. This season, the Twins won't have quite that level of prospect talent, but there's reinforcements on the way.

Prior to free agency getting underway, and the Twins shaping their 40 man roster for the 2017 season, I wanted to take a look at what internal options Paul Molitor should have. Of the eight players I named last season, four of them made their major league debuts. Here's to hoping I hit on a bit higher than 50% this time around.

Jake Reed- May

A repeat from last year, I expected Reed to debut in 2016. Unfortunately he had a slow start at Double-A and couldn't get things consistently going in his favor. The command issues persisted for him at Chattanooga while he walked 3.3 per nine. His strikeout rate jumped to 9.6 per nine, which was a nice boost. A strong finish to the season had him promoted to Triple-A for just over 10 innings, and he was worthy of a September call up. Of the Twins relief options heading into 2017, it should be Reed who's called upon to provide a boost first.

Nick Burdi- June

Another 2016 holdover, Burdi threw just three innings last season. Dealing with a spring training fluke injury, and then arm injuries throughout the year, it was essentially a lost campaign. Burdi brings the heat and can touch 100 mph when healthy. Minnesota will need to make sure his arm is in good shape early this spring, and you can bet that they'd like to have him in the big leagues sooner rather than later. Burdi's younger brother Zack was a first round pick last season by the White Sox and is already at Triple-A; you can bet there might be a little family rivalry to see who can get to The Show first.

Stephen Gonsalves- July

The next pitcher on the list of starting prospects the Twins need to pan out is none other than the 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Pitching at both High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Chattanooga, Gonsalves dominated each level. His 10.0 K/9 was very strong, and while his 3.7 BB/9 number isn't ideal, it was inflated by some clunker outings. His stuff isn't as electric as that of Berrios, and he profiles as more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but after a brief time in Triple-A to start 2017, he should be at Target Field by the middle of the summer.

Trevor Hildenberger- July

Hildenberger is one of the more interesting names on this list. He's 25 and not a top 100 prospect, but he's one of the better relief arms in the Twins system. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Burdi and Reed, but working as the Double-A closer in 2016, he was about as sure of a thing as it gets. Throwing 38.2 IP in 2016 for Chattanooga, Hildenberger struck out 10.5 per 9 walking just 1.4 per nine. He was shut down with an injury to end the year, but could've made the jump from Double-A to the big leagues. Not currently on the 40 man roster, Hildenberger should be added soon and can provide some punch down the stretch.

Mason Melotakis- August

The Twins, are least the former regime, definitely see something in Melotakis. He was added to the 40 man roster in 2016, and was sent to pitch in the Arizona Fall League this year. After missing 2015 due to injury, Melotakis pitched all of 2016 at Double-A Chattanooga. In 33.1 IP he struck out 11.3 per nine. Minnesota needs more strikeout types out of the pen, and Melotakis looks like he could be just that. At 25, he's on the verge of getting up there in age, but if he can show well early in Triple-A, he should find himself in the big league clubhouse to end the year.

Tyler Jay- September

In regards to Jay, there's a couple different ways that 2017 could go, and a lot will depend on how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former first round pick. He was exclusively a reliever in college, and his transition to a starter has been a process. Jay will almost certainly begin 2017 at Double-A and should finish the year at Triple-A. If starting doesn't work out or the Twins need him sooner, Jay could definitely be used out of the pen almost immediately.

Mitch Garver- September

Suggesting that Garver doesn't see the big leagues until September comes with a significant disclaimer; the assumption being that Minnesota signs or trades for a starting catcher prior to 2017. Garver should've seen his debut last September, and he had significantly more purpose being a big leaguer than Juan Centeno did a season ago, but he was skipped over. Should a new starting backstop come into the fold, Garver is likely going to have to overtake John Ryan Murphy for backup duties, and will likely spend the bulk of the year at Triple-A. He's solid defensively, has a good arm, and is coming off an .815 OPS in his first 22 Triple-A games. I'd like to see Garver get his chance sooner, but acquisitions could prevent that.

Zack Granite- First One Out

Maybe the most unknown commodity on this list, Granite is far from one to be overlooked. He was the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year and put up a career best .729 OPS at Double-A Chattanooga. He's not flashy at the plate, but his speed and defense will play at any level. In 127 games. he swiped 56 games and ripped off eight triples as well. For a big league club that has employed the likes of Shane Robinson and Robbie Grossman as 4th outfielders the past few years, Minnesota would be hard-pressed to do worse than their own internal speedster.

As noted above, this list might not have the top 100 prospect types that the 2016 version showed off, but there's a lot of big league talent here that can make an impact in an organization looking for difference makes.