Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Thank you, Brian!

The year was 2012, and a 25 year old Brian Dozier had finally burst onto the scene. No, this wasn't the big leagues, but it was close enough. Spring Training had commenced down in Fort Myers, and the scrappy Southern Mississippi kid had taken the narratives by storm. He was getting hits on a daily basis, and fans were looking for a long term answer at short. The 8th round senior sign from 2009 had put his name in the hat and wasn't going away quietly.

Although he didn't go north with the club that year, it didn't take long for them to come calling either. On May 7, 2012 Brian Dozier would make his Major League debut. He tallied his first hit in that game, and his first home run came five games later. Largely however, 2012 was a season to forget. It became quickly apparent that Dozier wasn't suited to play shortstop at the big league level and the reset button was pushed.

Fast forward to 2013 and a positional move to second base. Marking his first full season with the Twins, Dozier would play in 147 games. It has since become customary over the course of his seven year career, but Minnesotans were put on notice that season; this man would simply not be held out of the game.

In 2014 Brian began to establish himself as a power threat. His 23 longballs followed up a solid 18 in the year prior. While not being the hulking corner infield type, this man helped to wear out the left field bleachers at Target Field. Despite being a snub for the game itself, Brian was able to participate in the hometown 2014 Home Run Derby. Although his efforts fell short, it was a great moment for the entirety of Twins Territory.

Not to be denied in 2015, Brian captured his first All Star game nod. A season that saw him come up just shy of 30 homers (28 in total), he received MVP votes for the first time in his career. By this point, it was apparent that the Minnesota Twins had one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. Then, 2016 happened...

Harmon Killebrew is still, and will forever be, revered as the best Twins home run hitter of all time. In 2016, Dozier put himself among that rare company. With 42 homers to his credit, he again received MVP votes and further cementer his ability in comparison with the Jose Altuve's and Robinson Cano's of his position. At just 5'11" this was a relatively short man that had an ability at the plate to wear out Minnie and Paulie's hands.

Having now become known as a player that gets hot down the stretch, Dozier simply followed status quo in 2017. Although he didn't repeat and eclipse the 40 mark, his 34 homers were the second highest total of his career. Thanks to his offensive accolades, he vaulted himself into Gold Glove consideration and ended up taking home the award. At this point, the self-made slugger had turned a late blooming career into one for the storybooks.

Although Brian would've liked it to go differently this season, Minnesota simply couldn't keep up with all of the roadblocks in their way. Another trip to the postseason wasn't going to happen in Twins Territory, but that doesn't mean it won't for Brian. Now on his way to Los Angeles to join the Dodgers, a team he had been tied to in the past, Dozier gets to join a front-runner. He'll make a great up the middle partner for Manny Machado, and many Twins fans will only have to change their shade of blue come October.

As the sun sets on this chapter, Dozier leaves the Twins with 167 home runs, 202 doubles, and 491 RBI to his credit. He's a testament to the player that never stops working, and more importantly, the man that always wants more. Both he and his wife Renee have made an impact far greater than what's seen on the diamond, and they'll be sorely missed around Target Field. It's the nature of the business that players come and go, but this is one that left his mark here forever. Thank you Brian, and go Dodgers.

Deadline Deals Do Wonders for Twins

The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 Major League Baseball season with postseason aspirations. Coming off of a Wild Card berth a year ago, it was fair to expect this club to challenge the Indians for the American League Central Division title. For a multitude of reasons, things didn't pan out as expected, and that left the club as sellers when it came to the trade deadline. As has often been the case, the front office positioned and executed the endeavor near flawlessly.

Having lots of money to spend this offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine bolstered the organization with talent. At the time, all of the acquisitions made a ton of sense, and looked nothing short of great on paper. We know that across the board plenty of players fell flat for Minnesota, and that allowed more shrewd decision making to come into play. Thanks to the short term commitment, and multiple one-year deals handed out, the Twins found themselves with assets able to be moved when their direction took a turn.

It's always tough to see a player like Eduardo Escobar leave the organization he broke out in, but the reality is that the Twins maximized his value. Zach Duke and Lance Lynn were set to depart at season's end for nothing, and getting a return helps to stretch their effectiveness for the club into the future. Now a handful of trades in, there's reason to like every one of them.

Eduardo Escobar to Arizona for SP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel, and OF Ernie De La Trinidad

It's Duran that highlights this package for the Twins. All three prospects are current in Single-A, and given the depth in the Diamondbacks system (or lack thereof), these are three relative lottery tickets. That said, Maciel was highly touted as an International signee and stockpiling some talent that Minnesota may have missed out on when each was available as an amateur is hardly a bad get. Escobar was set to be a free agent at season's end, and now he gets to go be a part of a pennant race. Minnesota could bring him back this offseason (and if they can do so at the right dollar figure, it'd be very appealing), but getting some tangible return for him while they could is a very good move.

Ryan Pressly to Houston for SP Jorge Alcala and OF Gilberto Celestino

Flipping Pressly stings a bit, as I've been vocal about how good of a pitcher he is for quite some time. In 2018, he truly emerged as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. With another year of team control, it's unfortunate he won't be around to help what should be a competitive Twins team in 2019. That said, the reality is that he's a reliever. With pen arms being fickle, it made sense to flip him for a healthy return at a time when Minnesota had plenty of suitors. Getting a prospect with triple digit velocity in return is a nice piece, and it opens the door for Minnesota to explore some internal options in hops of backfilling Ryan's role.

Zach Duke to Seattle for SP Chase De Jong and IF Ryan Costello

Here is the first move in which the Twins front office continues to make a one-year deal work for them. Duke was signed for just $2.15 million this offseason and was handed a one-year deal. Having just two months left on his contract and not in a position to provide Minnesota value, the two prospects continue to do so. Although neither piece is a blue chip talent, there's little reason to scoff at the ability to develop and potentially drive major league talent out of players that will be around long after Duke would have left the organization. The Mariners get a lefty killer in return, and Duke's time with the Twins was an effective one.

Lance Lynn to New York for 1B Tyler Austin and SP Luis Rijo

If you'd ask who among the Twins free agent acquisitions underperformed the most this season, it'd have to be a tossup between Lynn and Logan Morrison. Being able to send the former Cardinals hurler out for a respectable return only highlights the importance of a track record. After missing virtually all of spring training, Lynn has been better since being awful his first month or so. He was striking out batters (and walking them) at career high rates, but there's too much leash there to believe he's cooked. In going to the Yankees, Lynn represents another one-year deal that plays future dividends for the Twins. Austin is out of options, so it would make sense that Minnesota give him ample opportunity to stick down the stretch. Rijo is a lottery ticket that you'd never be wise to turn down.

Trade in Your Traditional Drinkware

With the trade deadline upon us in Major League Baseball, I thought it as good of a time as any to talk about an exciting company making waves on and off the diamond. Young Bat Company was established in 1993, and has been making quality lumber for more than two decades. One of their exciting newer products drew me in, but there's plenty more to like here.

Young Bat Company has become a household name when it comes to lumber for the dish. They offer six different types of custom bats, with a seventh variation in development. On top of crafting the right bat for each individual, they also have a line of team bats. Whether you're looking to outfit yourself or the whole squad, there's something here for everyone.

Off the diamond, Young Bat Company makes there mark with much more than the typical T-Shirt merchandise. Although you can proudly display their logo across your chest, it's the drinkware novelties that set this company apart.

Transforming baseball bats into other usable tools is far from a new practice. Young Bat Company offers everything from bottle openers to keychains and cutting boards. What takes them above the competition in this space however, is their bat mugs. Designed from the barrel of a baseball bat, the Young Bat Mug is not just a drinking utensil. Thanks to creative designs and top notch quality, representing your love for the game while having a cold drink has never been easier.

With the Young Bat Mug you've got options. The traditional option allows for customization. Pick your colors, engraving, and wood types to create your perfect souvenir. If you'd like to go the predetermined route, the Legend Bat Mug is for you. Pick from a handful of Hall of Famers to be intricately displayed on the heart of your new go to mug.

Whether looking for your next piece of lumber, a gift for yourself or someone special, or simply taking a second to browse, check out Young Bat Company's website today!

Monday, July 30, 2018

Clearing Room Helps Twins

The Minnesota Twins moved Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly over the weekend. One transaction involved a free agent to be, and the other focused around a return that likely was too good to pass up. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, clearing some extra space should be the goal for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

As things stand currently Minnesota has a handful of guys capable of being flipped to another team. The names include Brian Dozier, Zach Duke, Fernado Rodney, and Lance Lynn. If they really wanted to, and were presented with a solid return, Kyle Gibson could also enter this list. It's hard to see Minnesota being able to move Ervin Santana after just one or two healthy starts, but he could be an August trade candidate through the waiver process.

Looking at the list of candidates having a potential to be moved, there's something that should jump out as an opportunity. All of them are impending free agents, and there's a relatively small likelihood that any of them return to the Twins in 2019. With that in mind, it's time to start planning for the year ahead. Giving those innings to players that will be around is a must, and it's something that Paul Molitor only has two months left to capitalize on.

While it's uncertain as to whether or not Nick Gordon can start at the big league level a year from now, or if Stephen Gonsalves can continue to limit free passes, it's become time to find out some of those answers. Guys like Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, and Jake Reed deserve some real run in the Twins pen, while Zack Littell and Adalberto Mejia could benefit from a couple of starts being strung together in succession.

When the Twins constructed the 2018 roster each of the pieces now available on the block made sense to bring in. This club was expected to be competitive, and without a lack of production across the board (combined with untimely injuries and bad luck), that was a reasonable expectation. Now with the narrative of the season having changed, the goal should be getting a jumpstart on the 2019 season.

It's hard to decipher whether or not Minnesota will be able to move all of their expiring pieces. Duke and Rodney have performed well this season, and should have appeal to some contenders. Dozier hasn't looked like himself, but a late season spark is all he'd need to supply in order to provide value to a postseason run. Lynn has been the worst of the bunch, but he's trended better of late and has a strong track record of success in his corner. What may be most interesting is what Minnesota decides to do if they can't move some of the pieces.

Looking at the roster construction as it currently stands, there's plenty of reason to question where the front office is prioritizing playing time. A guy like Matt Belisle has been both bad and ineffective for multiple organizations this season. Unfortunately, he's been given ample opportunity with Minnesota and that's to the detriment of the multiple more viable pen arms for the year ahead. A decision like that would suggest there isn't much care when it comes to preparing for what's next. Lynn could be DFA'd and the leftovers could see themselves passed through the waiver process, but we don't really have much evidence to suggest that's what lies ahead.

By my estimation, the most unfortunate way for the final two months of the season to play out would be to see all of these players stick around and no one get any real opportunity from the farm. You can't just cut bait on big league guys that are producing, but clearing the way for those you'll need to rely upon next season has to be of the utmost importance. We should have more clarity in the coming days, but the hope should be that the front office is on board with the train of thought as well.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Trade Tea Leaves Telling for Twins

The Minnesota Twins are fully expected to be sellers at this point, and with just under a week until the July 31 trade deadline there's moves to be made. As a few teams have already started to swap assets, the hope would be that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken notice. Specifically, there seems to be real value when dealing controllable pieces and the Twins have two of the best out there.

Today, the Tampa Bay Rays flipped Nathan Eovaldi to the Boston Red Sox for LHP Jalen Beeks. Beeks comes in as the Red Sox 6th best prospect per Baseball America, and Tampa netting him after just 10 starts from Eovaldi post Tommy John surgery seems like some sort of sorcery. At 28, Eovaldi has always been a guy to push the radar gun. He's sitting at 97.4 mph on his fastball this year, and appears to have regained his pre-surgery form just fine. The 4.26 ERA is backed by a 4.28 FIP while his 8.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 are plenty solid. If this is the return Eovaldi commands though, what could Minnesota get for Kyle Gibson?

Still arbitration eligible for another season, Gibson doesn't hit the open market until 2020. Eovaldi checks in as a rental, and will only be with Boston for the remainder of 2018. After coming on strong in the second half of 2017, Gibson has continued to prove that he's truly turned a corner. With a 3.57 ERA and a 3.85 FIP in 2018 the former first round pick has been nothing short of a solid arm. He's also amped up his strikeout rate, posting a career best 8.9 K/9 mark while staying on pace with career norms in the walks department.

It's fair to wonder whether or not the Twins should hang onto Gibson given the likelihood that they turn things around in 2019. Despite having decent pitching depth, Minnesota would be just fine penciling the former Missouri Tiger into the top half of the rotation next season. Ideally this club is making a postseason push in 2019, and getting another strong performance out of Gibson could be integral to that taking place.

The Mets would have the two best arms on the market if either deGrom or Syndergaard were made available. I can't see either of them being moved however, and that means other organizations have an opportunity. If Falvey and Levine are fielding calls on Gibson, a significant haul doesn't appear to be out of the question.

In the bullpen, Minnesota finds another premiere asset. Ryan Pressly has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball this season. He owns a 3.45 ERA with a 2.99 FIP. Jumping up his strikeout total each season, he's at a career best 13.0 K/9 in 2018. That mark puts him 9th among MLB relievers, and above guys like Brad Hand, Felipe Vasquez, and Sean Doolittle.

Much like Gibson, there could be little incentive for Minnesota to deal Pressly. The former Rule 5 pick has another year of arbitration eligibility and also hits the market in 2020. A focus this offseason was to revamp the bullpen, and removing Ryan from it would hurt big time. That said, Jon Morosi recently reported that the Marlins told Boston neither Jay Groome or Michael Chavis along would be enough to acquire their reliever Drew Steckenrider. While Steckenrider has more team control than that of Pressly, they're very comparable pitchers.

At the end of the day I'd be relatively surprised if either Pressly or Gibson was moved. Given the expectation to compete next season, having both of those players on the roster would be beneficial. Moving assets like Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar makes much more sense, and should be the focal point of the next few days. Then again if a team comes calling on Gibson or Pressly, ask for the farm and remain grounded in that.

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Kepler Looking for Next Step

The Minnesota Twins came into the 2018 season with postseason expectations. After appearing in the Wild Card game a season ago, that result was viewed as a worst case scenario this time around. Fast forward to where we are now, and nothing has gone according to plan. For the Twins to exceed expectations, optimal performance from home grown stars was going to be a must. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have drawn the headlines, but where does Max Kepler fall into all of this?

During the 2017 campaign, Kepler posted a career best .737 OPS. It was a very slight improvement over his 2016 season, and the thought was that he could be a prime candidate for a breakout in the year ahead. Through 96 games this season, he owns just a .731 OPS and hasn't taken the step forward that was imagined for him. That's the bad news. The good news is this story is still being written.

On the surface, it seems that Kepler is simply repeating the same level of production he's had over the course of his big league career. Diving a bit deeper however, we see some narratives that suggest much more could be coming.

Before diving into any underlying stats, Kepler's slash line this year is interesting in its own right. His .226 batting average is a career worst, but the .314 OBP is a career best. With 44 walks already, he's going to easily set a career high in that category. The German born outfielder also already has 13 longballs to his credit, and reaching 20 for the first time in his career seems like a foregone conclusion. Striking out less, walking more, and leaving the yard at a higher rate are all avenues for success.

Unquestionably, the biggest development for Kepler has been his regained ability to hit left-handed pitching. After posting a .453 OPS against southpaws last season, he now owns an .831 OPS against those same pitchers in the current campaign. Oddly he's fallen off a bit against righties, owning just a .689 OPS, but eight of his 13 homers have come against opposite armed pitchers. Being able to even out the splits, or more desirably mash righties again, would significantly raise Kepler's water level across the board.

Looking at the quality of balls Max is putting in play we can see signs of a potential breakthrough ready to happen. Although his average sits at .226 on the year, Kepler is generating an unreasonably low .239 BABIP. That mark is significantly below the .276 tally from 2017, and given the career high 38.6 hard hit rate, there's plenty of room for growth.

In previous interviews Kepler has turned his nose at the launch angle revolution. He's actually been goal in saying that it was his goal to put the ball on the ground. By now we know that isn't a viable path to success in the big leagues, and Kepler's numbers have begun to turn away from that. In 2018 he owns a career low 37.9% ground ball rate, and a 45.5% fly ball rate. If there's missed opportunity here, it comes in the form of a HR/FB ratio sitting at 10.3%. Right now Kepler may be getting too far under the ball, and staying within career norms at a 16.6% line drive rate, he's got a bit of room to flatten out the balls he's elevating.

Earlier I touched on the heightened level of plate discipline that Kepler has shown this season, and that's obviously a direct results of his efforts as well. In 2018 he's dropped his swinging strike rate all the way down to 7.4%. That new number is nearly a 2% decrease from a season ago, and a full percent lower than his career average. On top of missing the ball less, he's also chasing pitches out of the zone at a career low 24.9%. In short, it adds up to the perfect storm.

Right now the sum of Kepler's parts has plenty of room for growth. What's a very encouraging sign is that he's hardly defined as the player with a .226 batting average. Continuing to sting the ball while working to optimize his launch angle should only help to drive the BABIP north. As he's able to settle in more against righties, the damage only has an opportunity to become universal. There's been a lot asked of Kepler in a season where Byron Buxton has been nonexistent, but the growth opportunity for a player that's just 25 can do wonders down the road.

No matter what it currently seems like, the best is yet to come for Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins.

Monday, July 23, 2018

A Dish of the Waiting Game

The Minnesota Twins employed the best catcher in baseball up until 2013, and over his tenure behind the plate, Joe Mauer proved to be one of the five or ten best to ever play the position. Since then however, the role has become somewhat of a black hole for the organization. With Jason Castro shelved in 2018 more question marks have surfaced. The biggest unknown going forward is what do Derek Falvey and Thad Levine do now?

Castro will return in 2019 on the final year of a three-year, $24.5 million deal. He'll be coming off a knee surgery that allowed him to play in just 19 games this season. At 32 years old he'll have spent 699 games behind the dish, and the likelihood that his best days are behind him remains real.

Initially billed as a framing wizard behind the dish, Castro ranked just 15th in baseball per Baseball Prospectus' Framing Runs metric for 2017. While not awful, that's hardly what the Twins had hoped given the hype around that being his best asset. Castro's .720 OPS last season was 29th among major league catchers with at least 130 plate appearances. To summarize, there was plenty to be desired on both sides of the game even before the injury.

Fast forward to 2018, and the Twins catchers have combined to post a .607 OPS. That number comes in 6th worst in all of baseball. Bobby Wilson, who has been the main starter behind the plate in Castro's absence, owns the 6th worst OPS among 55 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances (.507). Mitch Garver has been a significantly better bat, and Willians Astudillo profiles as such also, but neither have been trusted with the gear on.

The lack of belief behind the plate really points to the crux of the Twins issues.

Regardless of what form Castro is in when he returns, Minnesota has virtually no one else they're willing to turn to. Astudillo has posted strong framing numbers at Triple-A, and held his own throwing out 35% of would be base stealers. In seven games with the Twins (and nearly a month on the roster), he never once drew time behind the plate. Garver has been on the 25 man for the balance of the season, yet has been called upon to start at catcher just 45 times.

There's plenty of reason to believe that the Twins should compete immediately in 2019. Projecting another year of virtually everything going wrong seems like a poor bet, and the division should remain plenty open with the only other talented team being the Cleveland Indians. Before they get there however, the Minnesota front office needs to figure out a better blueprint at catcher.

Down the stretch, Garver should be prioritized over Wilson. Whether or not he's deemed an acceptable catcher shouldn't matter in a lost season. Figuring out to what degree he can be counted upon is a must. Astudillo seems like a career minor leaguer, and probably isn't the answer either. Should the results point towards a different direction than Garver, the Twins will need to get creative over the winter.

Castro could be presumed the starter out of the gate again, but a free agent could be brought in to take away those duties. Potential names on the open market include Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, and Devin Mesoraco. Should the Twins decide not to supplant Castro, another Chris Gimenez type might make sense in place of Garver.

Stepping further away from the situation, the reality is there's a ton of moving pieces and very few certainties for Minnesota. Catcher isn't a position rich in value across the big leagues right now, and while the Twins have two intriguing prospects in Ben Rortvedt and Ryan Jeffers, neither are close enough to make a difference any time soon. The role can't continue to be a revolving door for a team with postseason aspirations however, and driving towards a real answer needs to be a goal sooner rather than later.