Monday, October 2, 2017

Sorting Out The Postseason

The Minnesota Twins have made it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. While this season doesn't guarantee they play home games at Target Field, this team reversed course on a dismal 103 loss season, to surprise even the most hopeful fans. While they travel to New York to face off against a tough Yankees club, there's more than a handful of good matchups slates for October.

Whether it be in the American or National League, there's no layup among any of the 10 teams involved in postseason baseball this year. The one-game Wild Card is going to eliminate to good teams, and the World Series winner is going to have to navigate quite the gauntlet. Taking a stab at what it all looks like, let's get into it.

American League Wild Card- New York Yankees

There isn't a better situation for Minnesota to be in. Playing with house money, and negating a large weakness in pitching thanks to a one-game scenario, the Yankees should be doing anything but overlooking the AL Central foe. With a 23 year-old Luis Severino on the mound in a big stage game, it'd hardly be surprising if the moment was too large. That being said, I just don't see the Twins doing enough here.

This New York bullpen is very, very good, and unless Minnesota gets to Severino early, Joe Girardi can shorten the game. While the Twins lineup has plenty of run producing capabilities of its own, the Yankees hit the long ball all over the place. Aaron Judge ran away with the 2017 Rookie of the Year, and I'd imagine he'll continue to flash on this stage.

I'd be far from shocked if the Twins win, and feel comfortable enough to bet on them, but think that's a bit more heart than head talking.

National League Wild Card- Colorado Rockies

Going into 2017, I wondered if the Rockies weren't a dark horse team to make a run at the World Series. They have young talent, they have veterans, and for the first time in a while, they have more than just patchwork pitching. It didn't help that the NL West was among the best divisions in baseball this year, but if the Rockies are going to advance, they'll have to earn it.

Zack Greinke is going to take the ball for the Diamondbacks, and while he's definitely one of the game's top pitchers, he's far from a sure thing. I like Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado to get to him early, and that gives Jon Gray an opportunity to settle in. Arizona owns the season series, but the Rockies played just above .500 on the road.

If there's an upset brewing in the Wild Card round, I think it's more likely that the Rockies make it happen.

American League Division Series- Houston Astros & Cleveland Indians

This is where the cream rises to the top. While the two top teams from the AL East are plenty imposing, the best of the American League in 2017 has been the Astros and the Indians. I'm not sure the Red Sox have enough to match up with Houston over the course of a five game series, and the Astros have so many different ways they can beat you. With a powerful lineup, and a one-two punch of Verlander and Kuechel, they should advance here.

For the World Series runner-up from a year ago, Terry Francona's team is simply too battle tested to go out this early. While the Yankees have plenty of young guns at their disposal, it's the Indians that have experience on their side. Jose Ramirez may still be the most underrated player in the game, and that pitching staff is good enough to shut the best lineups in the game down.

With two juggernauts advancing, the ALCS should be a doozy.

National League Division Series- Chicago Cubs & Los Angeles Dodgers

Although the coasted most of the year, there wasn't really ever doubt that it would be the Cubs hoisting the NL Central crown. They had rough patches and went through ups and downs, but Joe Maddon knows how to get the most out of his guys. Coming off a World Series victory, the experience should prove invaluable this season. There's a lot of pressure on the Nationals with the impending free agency of Bryce Harper, and nothing yet to show for Max Scherzer's monster deal. That isn't going to help them stay loose, and a good team can expose that weakness.

Over the full course of the season, there hasn't been a better team in baseball than the Dodgers. They went in a massive funk, and still were able to blindly cruise to both the best record in the game as well as a division title. No matter how good of a story the Rockies may be, expecting them to compete with a rotation that has too many good arms, and a lineup that has zero holes, is just too much to ask.

Like the American League, we'll be treated to one heck of a Championship series in the NL as well.

American League Championship Series- Houston Astros

Right now, there may be no pitcher in baseball going better than Justin Verlander. In a seven game series, he may be capable of getting the Astros three wins on his own. While the Indians have a pitching staff more than capable of going toe-to-toe with Houston, I think it's in the offense that we see separation.

The Astros scored more runs than anybody in baseball, and it wasn't particularly close. They can beat you on the mound or at the plate, and when you have the ability to bat studs like Alex Bregman in the bottom third of the order, it says something about your overall quality. I tend to think this Indians team may be better than the one that went to the World Series a year ago, but their running into a buzzsaw here, and I like Houston to advance.

National League Championship Series- Los Angeles Dodgers

That whole best team in baseball once again rears its head. The Dodgers are just loaded everywhere you look, and while the Cubs put it on cruise control at times this season, they'll need everything to break right for an opening at what's next. Chicago can't match up consistently on the mound and I think that's where the deficiency lies.

Having to face off against Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Alex Wood, and Rich Hill doesn't bode well for any club on a nightly basis. The Cubs put up more runs the LA during the regular season, but that offense should find it tough sledding to push runs across in bunches against this group. While Cody Bellinger has gotten (and deservedly so) all of the accolades this season, I think there's room for rookie Walker Buehler to shine in the postseason.

World Series- Houston Astros

Seven games pitting the Dodgers and Astros against each other for all the marbles sounds like a baseball fan's dream. This is a series that features everything, and there's plenty of young stars on both sides of the diamond. While neither of these teams have glaring flaws, I think it's the Dodgers that have shown a funk can derail them just a bit more.

The narrative of the Astros bringing a World Series home following Hurricane Harvey would be one for the storybooks, and I'm sure that's already being contemplated. Extra motivation or not, I think this group is just too well assembled and too talented to let this opportunity slip through their grasp. Your 2017 World Series champions are the Houston Astros.