A Leap To Prevent A Dive: The Twins Looming Decision

The Cleveland Indians came into Target Field and punched the Minnesota Twins right in the mouth. Not only were the Twins swept, but their lead in the AL Central is all but gone. What's worse is that what took place over the weekend (especially Saturday) may happen more often than not. The unfortunate reality is that the Twins just don't have starting options.

For game one of a double-header against arguably the division's best team, the Twins sent out a sacrificial lamb in the form of Adam Wilk. The journeyman lefty has never been given more than 14 innings in an MLB season, and he owns a 7.36 ERA at the big league level. Simply put, he's not qualified to be attempting to retire major league hitters. All of this information was known going into the tilt with the Indians, and there wasn't much Minnesota could do about it.

Sure, Wilk isn't who the Twins would prefer to run out to the mound (he was DFA'd immediately following his outing), but they are sparse on options as well. Already nine starters deep this season, both Phil Hughes and Hector Santiago is currently shelved. There's been talk of both returning as relievers, but that is likely only to mask the sunk cost and unfortunate truth that effectiveness eludes them both.

That leads us to where the Twins currently find themselves. The 2017 season has 95 games left for the Twins, and they're 2.0 games back in a pretty poor division. Realistically though, the playoffs weren't something seen as a possibility coming into the campaign, and the slate thus far has provided quite a bit of surprise. With the window being fully opened (with a few pieces added) in 2018, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have to decide what to do with what's left of 2017.

On the farm, there's a few answers, but development will likely need to come into the question. The largest area of deficiency for the Twins still stands on the mound. Both starting and relief options have been lackluster at best, and the system itself has a few options for the big club to consider.

Adding to the starting options, Double-A includes the trio of Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and Stephen Gonsalves. Both Romero and Gonsalves have an injury history, and are likely being monitored for health going forward. They represent no less than middle-of-the-rotation upside, and both (at their best) can be impact arms for Minnesota. Making the leap from Double-A is a steep one however, and a promotion may not be in the cards under more normal circumstances. Jorge can be a back-end big league starter, and while a quick promotion may stunt a little development, he could be argued to be the most ready.

If the Twins weren't in a place where they were having to draw straws for a starter every other night, there's probably no talk of any Double-A arms going anywhere but Triple-A Rochester. Given the circumstances though, the front office must at least consider if it's beneficial to provide a boost to the big league rotation with one of the top arms on the farm. There will be innings limits to monitor, and rough patches to be expected, but the alternatives haven't provided much more upside.

Out of the bullpen, similar scenarios reside for the Twins. Alan Busenitz was finally given a shot, but the farm still holds guys like Trevor Hildenberger, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, and John Curtiss. Hildenberger has paid his due at Triple-A and would be a worthy call at this point. Melotakis was recently promoted to Rochester, and probably could've skipped the level. Reed has pitched in Triple-A before, and Curtiss looks the part of a guy that can get big league hitters out.

Each of the aforementioned names have their warts, but the present more upside than a handful of the current relief contingent. The Twins would have less to lose throwing a reliever into a big league scenario than the starters they'd be considering, but the jump is still not one to be taken lightly. The pen is an area that needs vast improvement, and having not signed multiple vet replacements this offseason, it would appear that an influx of youth makes the most sense.

For a team that has a terribly negative run differential, and has been playing above water due in large part to offensive performance, real questions need to be addressed. At this point, I think we can safely rule out any reason for this team to be "buyers" in another month, but they maybe should consider supplementing from within. Although they'd likely have to disregard normal timelines, jump-starting a prospect's career at the big league level could provide benefits for all. If a young arm flops right now, they have knowledge necessary to compete a year from now. If things break right, Minnesota ends up with the needed influx of talent.

What is easily apparent however, is that this club can't continue to shuffle bodies on the mound. They won't play competitive baseball that way, and they aren't building for anything in that scenario either.

Twins Pen Ready For A Jolt

Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins biggest question mark was exactly how their pitching staff would respond. After being at the bottom of the big leagues a year prior, Minnesota needed a turnaround to return to competitiveness. They've seen a good enough start through the first 30 games or so, but staving of regression will be best accomplished by continuing to raise the water level.

As things stand on May 16, the Twins own the 9th best starting ERA in MLB. Ervin Santana has been great, Hector Santiago has been surprising, and Phil Hughes has been serviceable. Jose Berrios is here now, and the 5th starter will remain in flux until someone separates themselves from the pack. The bullpen has been a bit of a different story however.

Through their first 120 innings pitches, Minnesota checks in with the 23rd best relief ERA in MLB (4.73). The 7.43 K/9 ranks 28th out of 30 big league teams and the 3.75 BB/9 checks out in the middle of the pack. Largely unaddressed this offseason (Matt Belisle being the only signing of note), the pen remained a major question mark. While it hasn't yet gone off the rails, the goal would be to address things before it gets to that point.

Looking at what's out there, you can see some definite pieces. Brandon Kintzler is a solid reliever, even if he toes the questionable line when it comes to working as a closer. Taylor Rogers fits, and Tyler Duffey looks like a real weapon. I still believe Ryan Pressly is more than his funk suggests, and Justin Haley being carried makes sense. While that leaves both Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow, you have to wonder if Minnesota isn't in a position to push for more on their own.

Triple-A Rochester has some intriguing arms worthy of a shot. Adding Drew Rucinski to the 40 man roster for a brief call up comes as confusing, if only because there's other options. Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Aaron Slegers, and even Jason Wheeler could all use a look. If we're really trying to push the envelop though, it's at Double-A where the Twins greatest assets lie.

Both Mason Melotakis and Nick Burdi have been lights out to start 2017. Melotakis owns a 1.17 ERA across 15.1 IP. He has compiled a 7.0 K/9 while offering free passes at a rate of 2.3 BB/9. The former 2nd round pick has been at Double-A since 2014, albeit missing the 2015 season. He's compiled just under 50.0 IP across the last two years and he's shown an ability to strike batters out, while reducing the walks in 2017.

Another 2nd round pick, Burdi has come out guns blazing this season as well. He can push his fastball into triple digits, and seeing him healthy after throwing just three innings last year is a major plus. Across 13.2 IP this season, he's struck out 11.9 per nine innings, and he's walking batters at a very strong 2.6 BB/9. While command has always been Burdi's shortcoming, it's something he seems to have honed in this campaign.

I have no idea whether or not the Twins would promote either arm from Double-A, but I would lean towards them not doing so. Both have velocity, and wanting to see them pitch, more than just throw, at the next level might be worthwhile for a stop in Triple-A. Neither guy is going to be able to rely solely on speed at the big league level, and making sure they can get big league hitters out is a must.

Regardless of how they get to the Target Field bullpen, both Melotakis and Burdi have an argument to be there by early summer at the latest. I'd expect at least a brief stop for both in Triple-A, but guys like Breslow or even Adam Wilk, shouldn't stand in their way for a big league opportunity. Unlike a starting prospect, I'd argue that relievers don't necessarily need the long stay at the highest level of the farm. Give them a taste and move them on. J.T. Chargois put forth just 12.1 IP in AAA after 11.2 IP at AA prior to his promotion last year. A similar path could be had for both of these guys.

When they arrive, there's little reason to suggest it wouldn't be an immediate boost to the bullpen. Throw in a healthy J.T. Chargois or Jake Reed, and maybe a flier on one of those other names, and Minnesota will have reworked their relief corps from within.

Right now, there's some question marks as to how it will come together, and what guys can get healthy, but what Minnesota doesn't have in starting options, they have in relief. Both Burdi and Melotakis can lead the charge, and the dice will fall from there as they may.

Mound Squeeze Coming To Minnesota

Right now, the Minnesota Twins have an unsustainable pitching output. While they find themselves near the top of Major League Baseball in ERA, WHIP, and BAA, the reality is that regression is coming. Regardless of how steep that hits, the reality for the Twins in the coming months, is that they should finally have some tough decisions to make on the mound.

For far too many of the previous seasons, the practice for Minnesota has been to simply swap out a broken down arm for the next man up. Whether in the rotation or the bullpen, the Twins have just swapped out an arm with a heartbeat for another. Although top tier pitching depth isn't something the organization has in spades, it's getting close to the point that the cream of the crop is rising to the top.

The rotation may be the most murky situation for the Twins braintrust to figure out. Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago are going nowhere, unless a trade presents itself. Phil Hughes has been serviceable, and at this point, seems to have put to rest any worry about fallout from his Thoracic Outlet surgery. While still raw, Adalberto Mejia deserves some run, and projects as a solid back end option. While Kyle Gibson has turned decent starts into mediocre ones due to a bad pitch or inning, there's not much place for him to go either.

Nearly ready to claim a spot back on the big league bump is top young pitcher Jose Berrios. He's been all but lights out in Rochester thus far, and has made two starts stretching out to just over 80 pitches. Through two starts, Jose owns a 0.64 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and has walked just one batter in 14.0 IP. It's absolutely fair to worry about his big league struggles, but he's mastered Triple-A and needs the next step.

There probably aren't too many other arms that factor into the rotation discussion in 2017 (unless Stephen Gonsalves gets healthy quick), but 2018 could see Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge knocking on the door. If Berrios is beginning to command room in the rotation, it's the pen that is going to have suitors in short order as well.

It's pretty apparent the Twins pen has been good to start the year. What is also easy to see though, is that it's relatively void of impact arms. Guys like Ryan Pressly, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers are probably entrenched as they should be. For the rest though, it will continue to be a "prove it" scenario on a nightly basis.

Mason Melotakis and Nick Burdi have both kicked off 2017 nicely. Neither has allowed a run, and both are piling up strikeouts. Pitching for Double-A Chattanooga, it's fair to assume they could be moved up quickly. Trevor Hildenberger has continued to throw well for Triple-A Rochester, and should also be forcing himself into the picture. If you want to throw in Tyler Jay and Jake Reed (neither has pitched yet in 2017), there's a good amount of mouths needing to be fed soon.

The crossroads Minnesota would welcome, is a scenario in which these top young arms are forcing out guys on the big league roster. Rather than simply realizing a Michael Tonkin or Craig Breslow can't hack it, the Twins could find themselves in position to pick the guys with the greatest upside. It's a scenario that has escaped the club for quite some time, but one that could help to turn the tides back towards relevancy.

Regardless of how hard regression hits this pitching staff, the help from Jason Castro, and a much improved defense is going to keep a good portion of it in check. It'd be a welcomed breath of fresh air to see Minnesota around league average in the heart of the summer, and find themselves in a position to take the next step from within.

Velocity, strikeouts, and staples are what a good deal of the next wave of pitchers should bring to Target Field. Replacing guys that are already capable with that level of ability is something we can all be a little bit excited about.

Prospects On The Way For 2017

A year ago, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. There was a ton of top tier talent, and the bulk of it was near major league ready. Miguel Sano had paved the way by making his debut in 2015, and there was plenty of youth on the way to the Twin Cities to join him. This season, the Twins won't have quite that level of prospect talent, but there's reinforcements on the way.

Prior to free agency getting underway, and the Twins shaping their 40 man roster for the 2017 season, I wanted to take a look at what internal options Paul Molitor should have. Of the eight players I named last season, four of them made their major league debuts. Here's to hoping I hit on a bit higher than 50% this time around.

Jake Reed- May

A repeat from last year, I expected Reed to debut in 2016. Unfortunately he had a slow start at Double-A and couldn't get things consistently going in his favor. The command issues persisted for him at Chattanooga while he walked 3.3 per nine. His strikeout rate jumped to 9.6 per nine, which was a nice boost. A strong finish to the season had him promoted to Triple-A for just over 10 innings, and he was worthy of a September call up. Of the Twins relief options heading into 2017, it should be Reed who's called upon to provide a boost first.

Nick Burdi- June

Another 2016 holdover, Burdi threw just three innings last season. Dealing with a spring training fluke injury, and then arm injuries throughout the year, it was essentially a lost campaign. Burdi brings the heat and can touch 100 mph when healthy. Minnesota will need to make sure his arm is in good shape early this spring, and you can bet that they'd like to have him in the big leagues sooner rather than later. Burdi's younger brother Zack was a first round pick last season by the White Sox and is already at Triple-A; you can bet there might be a little family rivalry to see who can get to The Show first.

Stephen Gonsalves- July

The next pitcher on the list of starting prospects the Twins need to pan out is none other than the 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Pitching at both High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Chattanooga, Gonsalves dominated each level. His 10.0 K/9 was very strong, and while his 3.7 BB/9 number isn't ideal, it was inflated by some clunker outings. His stuff isn't as electric as that of Berrios, and he profiles as more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but after a brief time in Triple-A to start 2017, he should be at Target Field by the middle of the summer.

Trevor Hildenberger- July

Hildenberger is one of the more interesting names on this list. He's 25 and not a top 100 prospect, but he's one of the better relief arms in the Twins system. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Burdi and Reed, but working as the Double-A closer in 2016, he was about as sure of a thing as it gets. Throwing 38.2 IP in 2016 for Chattanooga, Hildenberger struck out 10.5 per 9 walking just 1.4 per nine. He was shut down with an injury to end the year, but could've made the jump from Double-A to the big leagues. Not currently on the 40 man roster, Hildenberger should be added soon and can provide some punch down the stretch.

Mason Melotakis- August

The Twins, are least the former regime, definitely see something in Melotakis. He was added to the 40 man roster in 2016, and was sent to pitch in the Arizona Fall League this year. After missing 2015 due to injury, Melotakis pitched all of 2016 at Double-A Chattanooga. In 33.1 IP he struck out 11.3 per nine. Minnesota needs more strikeout types out of the pen, and Melotakis looks like he could be just that. At 25, he's on the verge of getting up there in age, but if he can show well early in Triple-A, he should find himself in the big league clubhouse to end the year.

Tyler Jay- September

In regards to Jay, there's a couple different ways that 2017 could go, and a lot will depend on how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former first round pick. He was exclusively a reliever in college, and his transition to a starter has been a process. Jay will almost certainly begin 2017 at Double-A and should finish the year at Triple-A. If starting doesn't work out or the Twins need him sooner, Jay could definitely be used out of the pen almost immediately.

Mitch Garver- September

Suggesting that Garver doesn't see the big leagues until September comes with a significant disclaimer; the assumption being that Minnesota signs or trades for a starting catcher prior to 2017. Garver should've seen his debut last September, and he had significantly more purpose being a big leaguer than Juan Centeno did a season ago, but he was skipped over. Should a new starting backstop come into the fold, Garver is likely going to have to overtake John Ryan Murphy for backup duties, and will likely spend the bulk of the year at Triple-A. He's solid defensively, has a good arm, and is coming off an .815 OPS in his first 22 Triple-A games. I'd like to see Garver get his chance sooner, but acquisitions could prevent that.

Zack Granite- First One Out

Maybe the most unknown commodity on this list, Granite is far from one to be overlooked. He was the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year and put up a career best .729 OPS at Double-A Chattanooga. He's not flashy at the plate, but his speed and defense will play at any level. In 127 games. he swiped 56 games and ripped off eight triples as well. For a big league club that has employed the likes of Shane Robinson and Robbie Grossman as 4th outfielders the past few years, Minnesota would be hard-pressed to do worse than their own internal speedster.

As noted above, this list might not have the top 100 prospect types that the 2016 version showed off, but there's a lot of big league talent here that can make an impact in an organization looking for difference makes.