2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

While we have no baseball right now because of the league locking out its players, there’s still minor league prospects to dream on. 2021 provided us a full season of minor league action and the Twins saw a ton of movement from their biggest names.

It was certainly tough to see the injuries mount this season, but that can likely be tied to the non-traditional 2020 and having to get back into a demanding flow. The last update to the top 15 in this space came in June, prior to the Major League Baseball draft, so now feels like a good time to refresh the list. 

Previous rankings can be found below. Let’s get into it:

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Top 15 Prospects

2021 Top 15 Prospects

15. Cole Sands RHP

Sliding Sands back a spot here has nothing to do with him, and everything to do with additions before him. He posted a 2.46 ERA in 80.1 IP all at the Double-A level in 2021. The strikeouts are there and while the walk rate was up, he still worked around damage. Some time on the IL wasn’t a great thing, but he could be an option for Minnesota soon.

14. Matt Wallner OF

I’m pretty bullish on Wallner being a better version of Brent Rooker. His .854 OPS at High-A was a professional best this season, and he raked for Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League. He has massive arm strength and should be fine in a corner spot. He’s going to hit for power, and I think the on-base abilities are there too.

13. Noah Miller INF

Taken 36^th overall by the Twins, Miller’s brother Owen is a big leaguer. Noah is expected to be a better all-around prospect and has plenty of speed on his own. I think he’s got a pretty good shot to stick in the middle of the infield, and it’ll be exciting to see him on the field in 2022.

12. Blayne Enlow RHP

Throwing just 14.2 innings this year, Enlow was put on the shelf early and then underwent Tommy John surgery. He was added to the 40-man roster protecting him from a Rule 5 selection. He’s still one of my favorite breakout prospects, but he won’t be healthy to start 2022.

11. Josh Winder RHP

After dominating Double-A, Winder earned a pretty quick promotion to Triple-A. He was just ok in his four starts at St. Paul, but there’s no reason to believe this isn’t a talented arm. He’s consistently had strong strikeout stuff and avoided free passes. Winder was bit most by the longball for the Saints. He did experience a trip to the IL but should be healthy coming into 2022.

10. Keoni Cavaco INF

In 60 games for Low-A Fort Myers Cavaco did little to impress. That said, he’s still just 20 years old and it was great to see him advance beyond the complex league. He’s still filling out form a body standpoint, and 2022 will be an important year for his development.

9. Chase Petty RHP

Selected as the 26^th overall pick in the 2021 Major League Baseball draft, Petty was seen as a great value selection given his ability to reach triple-digits on the mound. He’s still got a good amount of refinement to undergo, but this is a great arm for Minnesota to mold.

8. Matt Canterino RHP

Spending a good amount of time on the IL this year, Canterino certainly wanted to get in more than 23 innings. The work he did do was dominant, however. A 0.78 ERA and 45/4 K/BB is plenty indicative of him needing the challenge of at least Double-A to start 2022.

7. Simeon Woods-Richardson RHP

One piece of the return for Jose Berrios, Woods-Richardson pitched just eight innings for the Twins at Double-A. After playing with Team USA in the Olympics, he needed a good amount of time to ramp back up. The strikeout numbers are exciting, but he does have command issues to work through. Still, this is a top-100 prospect that should be fun to watch in 2022.

6. Jhoan Duran RHP

After being among the best Twins pitching prospects coming into 2021, Duran took a slight step backwards. He was injured for a good part of the season and contributed just 16 innings. The high strikeouts were combined with too many walks. The velocity is certainly there, but he could wind up being a reliever too. 2022 will be a big season for him.

5. Joe Ryan RHP

Acquired in exchange for Nelson Cruz, Ryan wound up being among the best things to happen for the Twins last season. After pitching for Team USA, Ryan made five starts at the big league level. His 3.43 FIP was better than the 4.05 ERA, but a 30/5 K/BB is beyond impressive for a guy who doesn’t have dominant velocity. How Ryan adapts to more tape on him in year two is going to be intriguing.

4. Jose Miranda IF

No player in the Twins system had a better year than Miranda. He tallied a .973 OPS across Double and Triple-A while blast 30 homers. He played all over the infield and it’s clear the bat is ready for his next challenge. I’m not sure where he fits for Minnesota yet, and it may not be Opening Day, but he’s coming and soon.

3. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Starting 20 games for Double-A Wichita, Balazovic turned in 3.62 ERA with a 9.5 K/9. He looked every bit the pat of an ace at times while going through growing pains as well. He’ll need a clean bill of health and complete season in 2022, but he’s very close.

2. Austin Martin SS/OF

The headlining return for Jose Berrios, Martin is a very similar player to Minnesota’s top prospect Royce Lewis. Playing shortstop but potentially an outfielder, Martin owned a .779 OPS at Double-A Wichita. He hasn’t really hit for any power, but that should come. The athleticism is strong, and the speed is there as well.

1. Royce Lewis SS/OF

Putting him back on top of the prospect rankings, Lewis missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL. He’ll return to the field healthy in 2022 and looking to distance himself from a 2019 that left production to be desired. Lewis’ bat has flashed plenty, and he’s looked comfortable at both short and in the outfield. A quick rise to the big leagues may be in the cards.

Midseason 2021 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

It feels good to be able to write about actual minor league baseball action again. After it being shelved in 2020 and the only updates coming from unattended alternate site workouts, real games taking place is a welcomed reality. For Minnesota, there’s been lots of graduations from the farm, and even more shifting.

Traditionally this top 15 update has come after the Major League Baseball draft. With the timing of that event being shifted into July, I wanted to keep things consistent. Coincidentally, it was this exact date last year that the previous midseason update dropped. If you’d like to take a look at where I had guys coming into 2021, you can find all archived rankings below. Let’s get into it!

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Top 15 Prospects

2021 Top 15 Prospects

15. Jose Miranda IF

While he’s never made a top 15 for me before, Miranda has consistently been a “just missed” type. That doesn’t happen when you’ve got a .919 OPS in your first 37 games at Double-A. Lots of hype for Jose has been built around his bat and the work he did last year during the downtime. Looks like that was right.

14. Cole Sands RHP

A 5^th round pick back in 2018, Sands is now nearly 24 and at Double-A. He’s got 31.2 innings under his belt thus far for Wichita and owns a dazzling 2.84 ERA. The 5.1 BB/9 isn’t a great look, but the 11.9 K/9 continues his strength of being able to punch batters out. He was impressive when I saw him during Spring Training in 2020, and the arrow continues to point up.

13. Misael Urbina OF

Signed out of Venezuela, Urbina has made his stateside debut in 2021. He’s struggled in Low-A thus far, but there’s speed and defensive ability here. He also may run into a good amount of pop and he’s just 19 years old.

12. Gilberto Celestino OF

Forced into action for the Twins this year due to outfield injuries, Celestino is up ahead of schedule. He’s played just 21 games at the Double-A level for Minnesota, and the bat still has a ways to go. He’s a plus defender with good speed, and if he can hit at all, there’s a fourth outfielder at worst here.

11. Matt Wallner OF

One of the most athletic Twins prospects, Wallner has hit everywhere he’s gone in the system. He owns a 1.005 OPS in his first 17 games at High-A but has been shelved with a wrist injury. Would not be shocked to see him be a solid corner outfielder with a plus arm and plus bat. Just need to get him healthy and back on the field.

10. Brent Rooker OF/1B

It continues to be tough sledding for Rooker when looking for big league playing time. He’s a liability in the field and that bat absolutely has to play. It has again at Triple-A this season, where he’s got an .861 OPS for the Saints. If the Twins need bodies though, it’s been in the outfield, and he just can’t really help there. Should they choose a more rotation DH situation going forward, Rooker will factor in nicely.

9. Josh Winder RHP

Another 2018 draft pick, Winder has impressed coming out of the Virginia Military Institute. Now 24 and at Double-A, he’s arguably been the best arm on the farm. He’s got a 2.16 ERA across 41.2 IP and his 10.8 K/9 pairs well with a 1.7 BB/9. He’ll be a Triple-A option soon and pitching 125 innings back in 2019 should work in his favor as far as workloads go.

8. Blayne Enlow RHP

This one hurts, because Enlow could’ve found himself even higher on this list had his year gone differently. After 14.2 IP and a 1.84 ERA, Enlow underwent Tommy John surgery and will be out well into 2022. He’s still just 22, but it would’ve been great to see him at Double-A this season.

7. Matt Canterino RHP

Another arm of concern here, Canterino is currently shelved and it’s murky as to when he’ll return. He owns a 1.00 ERA and 35/3 K/BB at High-A in 18 innings this year. It’s clear he’s ready for a step up in competition, and maybe should’ve even started at Double-A, but again, health is the chief concern.

6. Aaron Sabato 1B

Do I love that Sabato has just a .668 OPS at Low-A in his first 36 professional games? No. Do I love that he has a 22% walk rate in those games? Yes. He’s got an advanced eye in a league where plenty of pitchers are fighting command. The power is real and should eventually play.

5. Keoni Cavaco SS

Recently having turned 20, Cavaco is getting acclimated at Low-A. He has just a .673 OPS but seemed to be putting some positive developments together prior to a concussion related injury stint. This is a big year of growth for him and seeing some of the tools that had him shooting up draft boards would be exciting.

4. Jhoan Duran RHP

A late start to the year set the timetable back some, but Duran should still be expected to reach the majors in 2021. He’s been both lights out and wild at times for the Saints, but it’s clear why there’s so much to like with him. A triple-digit fastball that he does have good command of is going to play.

3. Trevor Larnach OF

It won’t be long and Larnach will have graduated from this list. He isn’t higher because I’m not sold on him being a perennial All-Star type, but there’s nothing to suggest he’s not a starting corner outfielder for a long time. The bat has contact and power, and the eye has quickly established itself. The kid is good.

2. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Starting the year on the IL wasn’t ideal, but Balazovic has now taken three turns in the Double-A Wichita rotation. He’s racked up 16 strikeouts in his first 9.2 IP, and this may be the Twins next best shot at developing an ace. There’s an outside chance he could make a start in Minnesota later in 2021.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Done for 2021 before he started, Royce Lewis tore his ACL, and it was discovered on intake. The year of development being missed after a lost 2020 and tough 2019 isn’t ideal. His character continues to suggest he’ll dominate rehab, and the ceiling remains as high as anyone within the organization.

2021 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

 

This will be my 6^th annual top 15 Twins prospect update. As was the case with the midseason edition back in June, we’re dealing with an unprecedented scenario here. Having not played any minor league baseball action in 2020, movement is based more on what I heard out of the alternate site and what took place from prospects appearing at Target Field.

 

The hope would be that a level of normalcy is restored in 2021. While I’m optimistic we see something closer to what we’ve come accustomed to, changes are still in store. Major League Baseball booted just over 40 affiliates, and the regular season is still looking like there may be a delay in getting things underway. I’m hopeful that the yearly trip to Fort Myers happens, but that all remains in flux currently.

 

Here’s where players checked in during previous seasons:

 

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Top 15 Prospects

Now, let’s get to it!

15. Akil Baddoo OF

Taking over this spot from Wander Javier, Baddoo has had somewhat of a similar professional trajectory. He’s been hurt plenty and there’s still much more projection than actual results. However, he’ll play 2021 at 22-years-old and has already reached High-A. Growing into his body more and increasing muscle mass, there’s an exciting combination of strength and speed. He needs to begin producing on the field, but the ceiling is one to get excited about.

14. Gilberto Celestino OF

Celestino is on the 40-man roster and could play in the big leagues right now from a defensive standpoint. It was good for him to be at CHS Field in 2020 and get additional coaching in what could’ve been a lost year. The Twins are still looking for the additional come-up on the Ryan Pressly trade, and it’s this kid that could end up providing it.

13. Matt Wallner OF

The Minnesota native will be 23 when he gets back into a professional game having lost his age-22 season. However, Wallner is an advanced bat that has a plus arm. He’s probably more Trevor Larnach than he is Brent Rooker when it comes to athleticism, and that’s a good thing. Reaching Cedar Rapids in his first pro season was a nice showing, and he could be pushed through the system quickly if everything continues to go according to plan.

12. Matt Canterino RHP

On the outside of my top 10 but looking in, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Canterino as a top-5 Twins prospect a year from now. He’s got a great arm and was nothing short of dominant in his first seven professional outings. He’ll be 23 in 2021 and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins look to get him extended time at Double-A Wichita. He could be a part of the next wave behind the likes of Balazovic and Duran.

11. Lewis Thorpe LHP

Seeing somewhat of a slip for the Aussie in 2020 was a disappointing reality. Thorpe has always looked like the lefty to bet on in the Twins system, and I really thought he was in for a breakout. Initially dealing with some personal issues during Spring Training, and then fighting ineffectiveness when he was out there, 2020 was as forgettable for Lewis as it was anyone. The talent is all there, and so is the stuff, but it’ll be on him to close the gap between the ears.

10. Aaron Sabato 1B

I struggled with where to put Sabato as I think what happens and what could go wrong are both pretty straightforward. The former Tar Heel’s bat is beyond legit, but so too is his limit when it comes to impact. He’s never going to move off first base and may ultimately be a designated hitter. There’s less swing and miss than Rooker here, and the floor is probably a bit safer. Without him having played a professional game though, this feels right.

9. Keoni Cavaco SS

Entirely projection is what you’ve got to go off on Cavaco. He was an extreme helium pick and only got in 20 games before his professional career was put on hold. He’s 19-years-old and will start 2021 at that age. Likely destined to play for the newly designated Low-A Mighty Mussels, Cavaco will have to prove he can stick at shortstop. Playing third base during his prep career, the hope is that the bat develops power, and his 35/4 K/BB was just part of the acclimation process.

8. Brent Rooker OF/1B

If you were waiting on Brent Rooker’s bat to play in the big leagues before believing, the seven-game sample size certainly didn’t do anything to calm your excitement. It was a short debut, but he crushed the baseball, posted a .960 OPS, and launched his first Major League home run. A fractured forearm ended his season, but he’s all systems go and should be looking at an Opening Day roster spot in 2021.

7. Blayne Enlow RHP

I might be a bit higher on Enlow than most, but I think this is the next Twins pitching prospect to take a big leap. The front office prioritized him in a draft a couple of years ago, and he’s flashed great stuff since. Enlow will be 22 in 2021, but he’s already reached High-A. The strikeouts need to keep rising, but he’s got some electricity to his arm and has done a good job of avoiding substantial damage. Another step forwards and he’ll make another leap on this list.

6. Ryan Jeffers C

Like Rooker, Jeffers made his Major League debut in 2020. With Mitch Garver fighting both injury and ineffectiveness the Twins needed to turn to their rising prospect. In 26 games he posted a .791 OPS and did a fine job behind the plate. When drafted the narrative was that the bat would play but uncertainty remained about whether he could hack it behind the plate. Minnesota believed he could, and while that remains a work in progress, a pairing with Garver should give Rocco Baldelli two solid options.

5. Jhoan Duran RHP

There were a couple of different points that a Duran promotion seemed like a good bet during 2020, but the Twins ultimately never went that direction. He’s got a near triple-digit fastball and I heard plenty of great reports from the people I checked on him with. He probably has a higher ceiling than the pitching prospect ranked higher than him on this list, but the floor is more volatile as well.

4. Trevor Larnach OF

For the duration they’ve been in the system together it’s been hard to separate Larnach and Kirilloff. They are virtually the same player with the former having had some college seasoning and the latter having a bit of youth on his side. I’d give Larnach the edge when it comes to athleticism, but both should be seen as advanced bats with unmatched upside especially at the plate.

3. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Hailing from Canada, Balazovic has entrenched himself as the Twins top pitching prospect. He has the right mix of high ceiling ability with a very projectable and safe floor. I’d be pretty shocked if he ends up flaming out and working as a reliever. There may not be ace potential here but expecting him to be a two or three is hardly a lofty expectation.

2. Royce Lewis SS

Minnesota’s top prospect for the past two years drops a spot for me, but only because I think the year without game action leaves some uncertainty. I’ve been bullish on Lewis, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, I think he’s an All-Star caliber talent. While his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Kirilloff’s, there’s also a more volatile floor here. I really wanted to see how Royce would bounce back in 2020, and despite glowing reports from the alternate site, we didn’t get actual evaluation opportunity. I’m not betting against him by any means.

1. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B

Talk about being thrown into the fire as Kirilloff was asked to make his Major League debut during an elimination game in the Postseason. He could be ticketed for the starting left field role on Opening Day in 2021, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to at least match Eddie Rosario’s production level. Kirilloff’s bat is the real deal, and while his arm won’t play quite as high, there’s no reason not to get excited about his prognosis as a regular.

The Twins Unlikely Byron Buxton Insurance

This offseason the Minnesota Twins needed to allocate some dollars into contingency plans. With Josh Donaldson having missed so much time, and Byron Buxton always an injury away, legitimate talent behind both is a must. For Buxton, that answer may be more exciting than initially anticipated.

When Rocco Baldelli was filling out his American League Wild Card Series roster in October, one of the biggest surprises in recent memory took place. Top prospect Alex Kirilloff not only made the roster, but he drew his Major League debut start in game 2. Kirilloff garnered rave reviews all summer from Minnesota’s alternate site, and so too did the other top Twins prospect, Royce Lewis.

There has been plenty written already wondering what happens with Jorge Polanco at shortstop, if a utility role makes sense, and if he sticks there long term. Offensively in 2020, the 2019 All-Star was a problem. He posted a career worst .658 OPS and lost all power at the dish. We now know that could’ve been related to his bulky ankle, and a strong improvement in the outs above average category means his may be taking steps forward defensively. Under contact until 2024 and just 27 years old, he’s not going anywhere any time soon. Maybe the position changes, but here to suggest maybe it doesn’t.

We now enter a scenario in which the 2017 first overall draft pick makes his debut in centerfield.

Last fall the Twins allowed Lewis to play centerfield in the Arizona Fall League solely for the purpose of allowing him the flexibility to generate more at bats. It’s a position he’s been suggested of potentially moving to, and there’s reason to believe he’s not necessarily a lock to stick at shortstop. Coming off such a weird year in 2020, the focus in 2021 will be offensively contributing as fast as possible, and then likely finding a way to get him up to the big league club.

Although shortstop would be the traditional and straightforward path of progression, Lewis could experience a similar scenario to his teammate Kirilloff. For much of the past year Minnesota has begun to groom the lefty slugger as a first basemen. Regardless of Miguel Sano currently occupying the position, Kirilloff has found more of a home on the dirt than he did in the corner outfield. It was right field though that provided the opportunity for his debut, and it’s left field where he could find a home should the Twins non-tender Eddie Rosario.

Back to Lewis, we are working with a scenario in which the roster becomes constructed with the most possible talent, and Royce finds the quickest opportunity to play. Whether or not Byron Buxton finds himself on the shelf in 2021 isn’t a situation Minnesota wants to dream on. By having Lewis ready for that possibility however, they have a ready-made fill-in that could represent a higher ceiling than any bench alternative brought in from the outside.

No matter how or where it happens, I’d bet a sizeable amount that Royce Lewis makes his Major League debut for the Minnesota Twins in 2021. I’d place a greater than 25% chance that it comes at a position other than shortstop, and it’s a decent bet that there won’t need to be an injury to Jorge Polanco in order to facilitate the opportunity.

I can definitely imagine that Minnesota would like to simplify things for a prospect with so much promise. Bringing multiple gloves to the yard each day, and positional uncertainty wouldn’t represent that. Lewis is a poised kid though, and once they feel the bat is ready to play, the athleticism and instincts will take him far on their own no matter which number designates his position.

Go out and get pitching. Go out and find a worthy fill in for Josh Donaldson. Minnesota Twins, you can skip the centerfield replacement, your top prospect has that covered.

Midseason 2020 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

It’s really weird to be providing a midseason update on Minnesota Twins prospects when not only has a Major League game not been played, but the Minor League season is all but cancelled as well. There hasn’t been anything of substance to look at, although my thoughts on a few players have shifted.

I can’t say that I derived anything of considerable substance from the week I spent watching back fields action down in Fort Myers, but there’s also been a (very brief) Major League Baseball draft that put some fresh talent into the organization as well. 2020 has been anything but normal, so let’s embrace the goofiness and get underway with the rankings.

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Twins Draft Picks

15. Wander Javier SS

Losing a full season of Minor League Baseball may hurt no one in the Twins system more than it does Wander Javier. An elite talent who has fallen completely off the map since Rookie Ball, Javier is coming off a dismal .601 OPS with Cedar Rapids in 2019. He’s still just 21, but a year of missed development and wanting to distance himself from a season ago isn’t ideal.

14. Matt Canterino RHP

I really like Canterino and think he can continue to push up these rankings as a relatively high floor prospect. He’ll be 23 next season, but he put in a very impressive showing to start his pro career. Working 25 innings after 99 in college is a nice taste, and clearly the Twins were impressed skipping him over the Appy League. He should start at High-A Fort Myers in 2021.

13. Gilberto Celestino OF

Part of the package returned for Ryan Pressly, Celestino was originally viewed through the lens of being a plus defender. While that remains true, he reached High-A Fort Myers last season and posted a .759 OPS. The 10 home runs were a nice bit of power, and if that comes along with his speed and defensive abilities, he’ll rocket up this board. There’s clearly a reason why Minnesota wanted him on the 40 man this winter.

12. Matt Wallner OF

I’m higher on Wallner than most I think, but he is a bit more than the traditional booming bat the Twins have. There’s athleticism here and he can play on the corners in the outfield. His arm is massive, so right field makes a lot of sense. He was already looking like an advanced hitter, so the wiping out of 2020 may not hurt him as much. There’s always fallback potential here that he could get on the mound.

11. Aaron Sabato 1B

Continuing the mold of targeting thunderous bats, Minnesota went with arguably the best power hitter in the draft during 2020. Sabato can launch the baseball, and he’ll absolutely have to with little to now defensive value. The expectation is a big leaguer at worst here, with some serious thump as a consistent and regular producer.

10. Brent Rooker 1B/OF

Rooker could see time on a taxi-squad for the Twins in 2020, and it’s not hard to wonder on as his bat is ready. There’s uncertainty as to where he’ll play given mixed reports on abilities in the outfield and at first base, but the bat should hold its own. He’s got a different build than Sabato, but all of the same power is there.

9. Keoni Cavaco SS

Keeping Cavaco back for me is just how lost he looked at the plate in his debut season. The K/BB ration was nightmarish, and that’s the bigger story than where his slash line was for me. I think he really needed to get back on the diamond and in the swing of things for some positive steps forward. Obviously, this is still a first round talent, but it’s a wait and see approach for me.

8. Ryan Jeffers C

One of the biggest movers nationally in the Twins system has been Jeffers. He went from a bat first player that may not be able to catch, and now is considered multi-faceted within the organization. The receiving and throwing skills have sharpened, and nothing has slowed down with the bat. Like Rooker, Jeffers could be on the taxi squad for the Twins, and probably is a better option behind Alex Avila in the hole than Willians Astudillo.

7. Blayne Enlow RHP

Minnesota saved money on some earlier picks to grab Enlow given the promise they saw in him. So far that’s been greatly rewarded. He’s been a consistent arm, and while not dominant, has gotten it done at every level. Would like to see a few more strikeouts, but there’s a mid-rotation upside here. Another guy that could factor in depending on how big minor league depth goes for 2020.

6. Lewis Thorpe LHP

2020 was going to be a big year for Thorpe and it’s taken on quite a different shape. He was away from Spring Training getting reset for a couple of weeks and then look ticketed for Triple-A Rochester. With the situation as it is now, he could be an extra long man out of the pen. His stuff was better than the numbers said in 2019, and I think there’s legit stuff to dream on from the Aussie lefty.

5. Jhoan Duran RHP

The way 2020 has gone, and the limited season may actually accelerate Duran’s pro debut. I assumed it would come this year, but that wasn’t a lock. Expanded taxi squads and roster could certainly make an arm this good worthy of a relief look. He’s going to start in a traditional year. The near triple-digit stuff plays from the get-go. Bring him in as a middle reliever might be a nice boost for Rocco Baldelli, however.

4. Trevor Larnach OF

I’d bet heavily on Larnach showing up at the Major League level in 2020. He’s an advanced hitter and works the zone well. He’s held his own during Spring Training action and watching him launch a ball on his first big league at bat was a lot of fun. He’s the most likely of the Twins power prospects to remain in the outfield. Good athleticism, although it will play better on the corners.

3. Jordan Balazovic RHP

This season will present somewhat of a weird spot for Balazovic. I think he’s best utilized as a starter and not sure how much his stuff plays up in the pen. He’s got a legitimate shot to be top half rotation arm and pairing him with Jose Berrios down the road could be lots of fun. The Canadian has received lots of praise in the past calendar year and the stuff absolutely warrants it.

2. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B

Plenty can still make the argument that Minnesota’s top two prospects are interchangeable. I have Kirilloff second because once he moves off an outfield spot (as he already has) first base provides less value. He’s a pure hitter, he’s going to hit for average, and the power will be there as well. He was going to be ready at some point in 2020, and no we’ll likely see it sooner rather than later.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Lots of ups and downs for Lewis on the farm last year, but he ended on fire as the Arizona Fall League MVP. There’s going to be concerns about the leg kick until he consistently puts it together, and plenty still wonder if he’s not better suited for centerfield. Regardless, he’s going to play a premium position and looks the part of a perennial All-Star.

2020 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

The Winter Meetings in San Diego have come to a close and the Minnesota Twins have all sights set on the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli is looking to repeat an extraordinary 2019 performance, and the big-league club looks to remain one of the best in the majors.

As the reigning AL Central Division champions, the Twins now have teams gunning for them, and while the offseason still must incorporate significant talent acquisition, getting contributions from a deep and loaded farm system is something to be expected.

My top 15 prospects were last updated back in June at the midway point of the season; you can find those here. Going back over rankings, here is the full history.

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

15. Nick Gordon INF

Gordon followed the same narrative he has employed most of his minor league career. Year two at Triple-A was significantly better than the first season, but the ceiling looks relatively muted at this point. He’s a contact hitter with average defensive ability and good speed. There are some question marks on passion, but talent remains enough for him to be a big league regular.

14. Matt Canterino RHP

After being taken in the 2^nd round of the 2019 draft Canterino quickly established himself in pro ball. He skipped over Elizabethton and turned in five nice starts at Low-A. He’s got strikeout stuff, and while the delivery is somewhat quirky, it showed well in his debut. We’ll need to find out what tweaks are necessary as he rises through the system, but this looks like a middle of the rotation arm.

13. Wander Javier SS

No one had more anticipation leading up to 2019 than Javier. After missing all the 2018 season, he finally had a clean bill of health. Now with the year in the rear view, it’s hard not to suggest health was the only positive development. Playing 80 games at Cedar Rapids, Javier posted just a .601 OPS and put up a 116/35 K/BB. He’s got all the talent to be a top 20 prospect in baseball, but he needs a turnaround in 2020 badly.

12. Matt Wallner OF

A big arm but drafted for his bat, Wallner showed out in his first year of pro ball. He posted an .813 OPS at Elizabethton and swatted six homers. His time in Cedar Rapids didn’t include gaudy numbers, but it was brief only getting in 12 games. Owning somewhat of a similar profile to fellow prospect Brent Rooker, Wallner should be able to use his athleticism to continue producing at higher levels.

11. Keoni Cavaco SS

Minnesota grabbed Cavaco with the 13^th overall pick and sense him to the GCL. Freshly out of high school, the 18-year-old didn’t get off too much of a hot start. That said, he ascended draft boards due to strong national showings, and his tools all jump off the page. The most important thing that took place for him this year was simply getting engrained into the pro ball schedule.

10. Ryan Jeffers C

If there’s something the Twins did at the highest level last year, it was develop catchers. Jeffers took another step forwards behind the dish, and his bat continues to be an asset. He was promoted to Double-A down the stretch and generated an .856 OPS. Possessing true home run power as well as a growing ability as a defender, he’s asserted himself as the best catching prospect in the system.

9. Blayne Enlow RHP

Things just continue to trend upwards for the Louisiana native. He made it to High-A Fort Myers and posted a 3.38 ERA across 69.1 IP. The hope would be that strikeouts would continue to rise with the walks seeing some decrease. He’s still working on pitching, honing in command, and being able to do more than simply put the ball behind opposing hitters. There’s a ton of talent here and he’s a hard enough worker to harness it all.

8. Lewis Thorpe LHP

Thorpe’s big-league debut came as a contributor to the Twins division title. Although he posted a gaudy 6.18 ERA, it was backed by a 3.47 FIP and was a result of one blow up start against the Indians. He was great in relief and posted a strong 10.1 K/9. He should be still viewed as a starter, but he could be a lefty weapon out of the pen if a change is made. Although he won’t ever be an ace, he looks the part of a certain asset in on the mound.

7. Jhoan Duran RHP

An MLB debut is probably on the horizon for Duran in 2020 if things go well. He was dominant at High-A Fort Myers and outpitched his 4.86 ERA at Double-A Pensacola. A fireballer with strikeout stuff, this is looking like a very nice return for the Twins from the Eduardo Escobar trade. Duran keeps the ball in the yard and does a decent job limiting walks. Another step up and he could be trending towards a frontline starter.

6. Brent Rooker 1B/OF

Somewhat limited by position and age, Rooker continues to rake and make it not matter. He could factor in for the Twins at 1B if the footwork gets in line, but the bat is going to have him up sooner rather than later. He missed the latter half of the season due to injury, but in 65 games at Triple-A Rochester he posted a .933 OPS with 14 dingers. Expect him to start on the farm, but there should be early opportunity for him in the majors.

5. Trevor Larnach OF

After a strong pro debut with an .890 OPS over his first 42 games in 2018, the former Beavers outfielder did nothing to calm his steam last season. He made it to Double-A Pensacola and posted the same .842 OPS he had in 84 games with High-A Fort Myers. A power threat homered in his first major league spring training game, Larnach can play all over the outfield and could push for an opportunity with the Twins before 2020 ends.

4. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Maybe no one in baseball ascended more in 2019 than Balazovic did. After being a fringe top 100 prospect, it’s hard to see him anywhere outside the top 50 heading into the upcoming season. He threw 73 innings for Fort Myers and posted a 2.84 ERA. The strikeouts are there, the command is there, and it all resulted in dominance. We’ll see if he’s tested at the next level, but the Canadian is looking like a staff ace.

3. Brusdar Graterol RHP

A three-inning cameo was what Graterol got to call his MLB debut experience. Velocity is his game and that showed as he routinely pumped triple digits. Strikeouts dipped for him at Double-A Pensacola this year, but he was enough of an asset to be used out of the pen on a division winning club. Expect him to go back to starting and be stretch out to begin 2020, but there’s so much to like here. If a third pitch develops, he could be a dominant starter. If it doesn’t, he’ll be a lockdown relief talent.

2. Alex Kirilloff OF

Missing time to start the year, Kirilloff took a while to get going. It resulted in just a .756 OPS in his first look at the Double-A level, but that shouldn’t cool anything about his trajectory. He’s still a corner outfielder that oozes athleticism and has an advanced approach at the dish. He’s a disciplined hitter with plenty of power, and a quick start in 2020 is going to light a fire under the promotion talk.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Much like Kirilloff, Lewis didn’t get off to a quick start and his bat scuffled all season. He posted just a .661 OPS between Fort Myers and Pensacola, while being questioned as to whether he’d stick at shortstop. Heading to the Arizona Fall League, he took home the MVP trophy and challenged for the batting title after posting a .975 OPS in 22 games. There’s far too much talent to ever write Lewis off regardless of the sample size. This kid still looks like an absolute superstar and getting back in a Blue Wahoos uniform to prove it is likely driving him this winter.

What Has Arraez Played Himself Into?

The Minnesota Twins have had more than a handful of exciting points of player growth in 2019. Maybe none have been more impressive than Luis Arraez. From fringe prospect to primary second basemen, the rise has been nothing short of meteoric. At this point he’s all but destined to open 2020 as the club’s starting second basemen, but is that his long (or even near) term home?

Through 64 games and just shy of 250 plate appearances, he owns an .836 OPS and is batting .335. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and if he ever puts 10 balls out of the park in a single season any team would be ecstatic. What he can be though, is an ideal leadoff hitter with great average skills and elite on-base production thanks to plate discipline that’s otherworldly. He handles the bat to the point that Tony Gwynn would be proud of, and his approach at the plate in unwavering.

It is for those reasons that he’s played himself into the starting second basemen role when Opening Day comes knocking. Nick Gordon hasn’t yet made his major league debut, and as his chief competition, it isn’t surprising to suggest that Arraez would have a leg up. From a second base perspective alone, it’s worth wondering if that spot isn’t more circumstantial than anything else for Arraez.

Eventually the hope would be that Royce Lewis would make his MLB debut and take over as Minnesota’s starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco is not long for that position, even though he’s made strides this year. The arm is still questionable there, and Polanco has gone through bouts of inconsistency as he works through his throwing process. Signed to a long-term extension, Polanco isn’t like to move out of the organization any time soon, and an up-the-middle-tandem seems to be destined for Lewis and Polanco.

There also has always been the idea that Miguel Sano is not long for third base. Although he’s hung around the average-to-slightly-below mark this season, a body that big seems to profile more on the other corner. Thad Levine recently suggested that Minnesota doesn’t see Sano as an ideal fit at 1B presently, and they see third as an easier avenue to keeping him engaged in the action. As necessity pushes him from the spot though, they may need to re-evaluate their plans.

So, assuming Polanco slides over at short is filled, Arraez could find himself at the hot corner. This is all assuming the hit tool continues to play, but the position makes some sense. He’s almost always been a second basemen on the farm, and his time there has tripled the third action with the Twins. In 282 innings at second however, he owns a -6 DRS and -1.7 UZR. The 100-inning sample at 3B is incredible small, but he’s been worth 0 DRS and a -0.5 UZR. Minnesota will get plenty more data to evaluate prior to decision making time, but it’s a narrative to monitor.

If everything develops on an expected and linear track (which is to essentially say this won’t happen at all), then Lewis and Polanco man the middle for Minnesota by late 2020. At that point Sano could then move to 1B or DH (after Nelson Cruz is gone) and Arraez slides into the hot corner. Maybe Luis won’t continue to hit (seems unlikely) or maybe he’ll be dealt (not sure that’s probable), but second base doesn’t seem like the guaranteed long-term fit for the Venezuelan and I’m not sure there’s anything wrong with that.

How Good Is Noah Syndergaard?

The Minnesota Twins are going to be scouring the trade market for the next few days as they look to supplement their big-league club. Relief pitching will be the main focus, but adding a starter makes some sense too. I am out on trading real assets for rentals, but a controllable arm could be more than enticing for Derek Falvey. The premiere name out there is the New York Mets Noah Syndergaard. 2019 has been a down year, but just how good is he?

Commonly known as Thor, Syndergaard is a controllable asset through the 2021 Major League Baseball season. He’s costing the Mets just $6 million this season on an arbitration deal, and that figure will rise slightly each of the next two campaigns. After posting a 2.93 ERA through his first four big league seasons he owns a 4.33 mark in 2019. Much of that is on the Mets being the worst defensive team in baseball however, as his FIP is 3.64.

Drafted out of high school there’s a lot to like with Syndergaard. He has worked in the majors since his age 22 season and has consistently been among the best pitchers in the sport. Yet to win a Cy Young or make multiple All-Star teams, his best years are likely yet to come. Unfortunately, he’s never been completely healthy and has pitched over 180 innings in a season just one time during his five-year career. When he’s on the mound it’s must watch action, but you have to believe in his ability to stay there.

Looking under the hood we can generate a better idea of what Thor actually brings to the table. His 98.2 mph average fastball velocity is right in line with career norms, and he’s one of the hardest throwing starters in the game. The career 13.2% whiff rate is solid and while he’s down to 12.5% this season, that’s still a strong floor. Generating a ground ball roughly 50% of the time over the course of his career and giving up hard contact less then 30% of the time, it’s a batted ball profile that should generate success.

To address some of the 2019 concerns we can probably start first and foremost with the slider. Although Syndergaard can blow his fastball by many big-league hitters, it’s the breaking pitch that keeps them off balance. For whatever reason he went from utilizing the slider 20% of the time all the way down to 12% in 2019. He’s throwing his fastball more than at any point since 2016, and he’s sprinkled in a bit more changeup usage. Working with him on what is a dominant secondary offering is probably part of the puzzle here.

Because he’s gone to a straighter offering more often, batters are more than likely able to hone in on the zone. We some evidence of that in his chase rate this season. Down to a career low 31.5%, opposing hitters simply aren’t offering at pitches outside of the strike zone. Despite not being egregious by any means, that input has also led to a career high 73.8% contract rate.

At the end of the day it’s pretty difficult to argue against the merits of a 26-year-old fireballer that throws a ton of strikes and limits walks. Sure, the overall numbers are down some in 2019, but it appears that all the stuff is still there. Expecting Wes Johnson to help unlock everything all at once is a pretty good bet and getting a guy like this that can be worked with for a significant period of time would really bear some fruit.

Organizations like the Twins really have to determine their path when looking at how to best position themselves for an ace. Derek Falvey swung for the fences on Yu Darvish as a free agent a year ago, but ultimately stopped shy of matching the Cubs offer. Regardless of that deal now looking bad, the Twins being the frontrunner on the premiere free agent starting option seems like a foolish bet on an annual basis. You can certainly draft and develop talent, but that’s also not a straightforward process and one that takes an incredible amount of time. That only leaves the trade route.

Dealing for a guy like Syndergaard is going to hurt in the form of prospect capital. The Star Tribune’s Lavelle E. Neal suggested that New York has asked for both Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis, which should not happen, but any deal is going to be steep. At some point it becomes whether the front office wants to deal in dollars or prospects, and for Syndergaard the latter may be worth genuinely exploring.

Midseason 2019 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

It’s that time of year again, and with the 2019 Major League Baseball amateur draft in the books we can update the prospect rankings. After picking 13^th in the draft this season the Twins took more of a developmental approach with their first-round pick. Going heavy on college players following that selection the system gets much deeper. With early season performances influencing those already into their pro careers this list has some movement to it.

My Top 15 Prospects were last updated in December prior to the season starting. You can see that list, as well as the others dating back to 2016 below. Also, in this offering, I’ve expanded the total names to go 30 deep. While those names past 15 don’t have any breakdown, know that they are certainly names worth monitoring.

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Twins Draft Picks

30. Gabriel Maciel 29. Travis Blankenhorn 28. Griffin Jax. 27. Zack Littell 26. Jose Miranda 25. Yunior Severino 24. Gilberto Celestino 23. LaMonte Wade 22. Ryan Jeffers 21. Misael Urbina 20. Stephen Gonsalves 19. Akil Baddoo 18. Matt Canterino 17. Ben Rortvedt 16. Luis Arraez

15. Luke Raley OF

Dropping a couple of spots from the first 2019 list, Raley’s positioning is indicative of a strengthened system. He has posted an .878 OPS for Triple-A Rochester and is right there with teammate Brent Rooker when it comes to a big power bat. Unfortunately, he just dislocated his ankle and is going to miss significant time due to surgery. He’ll return late this year and hopefully end on a high note.

14. Jorge Alcala RHP

His first full season in the Twins organization has been spent entirely at Double-A Pensacola. The 5.25 ERA isn’t good, but the FIP and xFIP numbers suggest that’s not indicative of true performance. His 9.6 K/9 is impressive, and the walks are below his career average. There’s lot of life on this fastball, and he could pop up to make a splash for the big-league club as early as this season.

13. Nick Gordon INF

Starting the season on the shelf Gordon has just 26 games to his credit thus far. He got out to a quick start and has continued to produce for Triple-A Rochester. The .784 OPS with an ok OBP is about what you should expect from the contact bat and speed profile Nick possesses. At this point he’s probably more 2B than shortstop, and while he may be a big league regular, it’s becoming less certain that happens here. Gordon could push for his debut later this season if he continues along this path.

12. Matt Wallner OF

Originating from Forest Lake, Minnesota Wallner was selected with the Twins first round compensatory pick. He’s a corner outfield bomber from Southern Mississippi that should have an advanced approach at the dish when getting to the next level. He’s played in the Cape with wood bats previously and could take a similar path to that of Trevor Larnach.

11. Keoni Cavaco 3B

After quickly jumping up draft boards the high schooler from California found himself going to the Twins in the top half of the first round. Announced as a SS but likely destined for the hot corner, Cavaco’s bat is going to be what carries him. He possesses an above average defensive profile at third but should continue to display pop as he further develops his frame.

10. Blayne Enlow RHP

Recently promoted to Fort Myers after making eight starts for Cedar Rapids this season, Enlow has turned in 18 strong innings with the Miracle. The strikeout numbers aren’t quite there yet, but he’s continued to work on both control and command. Just 20 years old, Enlow remains one of the most exciting developmental pitching prospects in the entire organization.

9. Lewis Thorpe LHP

Putting more distance behind his missed time, Thorpe has turned in 11 starts at Triple-A Rochester this season. While the 5.95 ERA isn’t good, he’s been much better of later. The 11.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 are beyond impressive, and if he can keep the ball in the park the numbers really pop. I’d expect a major league debut to come at some point in 2019, and he’ll have a real chance to be a difference maker being more than your traditional soft-tossing southpaw.

8. Jhoan Duran RHP

A model of consistency over the past two seasons, Duran has struck out 10+ per nine while walking roughly three over the course of his last 31 starts. He’s just 21 years old and can pump his fastball towards triple digits. Finishing at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2018, he’s made 10 starts for the Miracle this season. There’s an outside chance he could progress to Double-A this year. Minnesota is stockpiling some fireballing arms to be sure.

7. Jordan Balazovic RHP

The Canadian has seen a rise like no one in the Twins system this season. After a strong 2018 for Cedar Rapids as a 19-year-old his 2019 has only taken him to new heights. Making four starts for the Kernels before a promotion to Fort Myers, Balazovic owns a ridiculous 13.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. His 2.09 ERA is beyond impressive and the body of work spans 51 innings. He’s still so young and is going to blow by his previous career innings totals, but if he keeps this up there’s no reason to think another challenge is out of the question.

6. Wander Javier SS

Having made it through plenty of setbacks over the course of his early career, Javier is finally healthy and on the field for the Kernels. He’s got as good of a chance as anyone to stick at SS defensively, and this is one of the best prospects in the system. He hasn’t leapt out to a fast start at Low-A Cedar Rapids, but we’re dealing with a sample size under 15 games thus far.

5. Trevor Larnach OF

The 2018 first round pick was drafted for his bat and since turning pro all he’s done is hit. Making it to Cedar Rapids in his debut season, he began 2019 with High-A Fort Myers. In his first 61 games he has an .863 OPS and has displayed a very strong approach at the plate. At 22 he could be pushed with a new test getting to Pensacola in the next couple of months.

4. Brent Rooker OF/1B

Taken in the first round of the 2017 draft Rooker has done nothing but crushed his way through the minors as well. Now 24 and at Triple-A Rochester, he owns a .908 OPS through 35 games with seven longballs. The exact positioning at the next level is still up in the air, but this is a power bat that doesn’t have a ton of swing and miss and is going to rake anywhere he goes. A Twins debut this season isn’t beyond comprehension.

3. Brusdar Graterol RHP

Pitching all season at Double-A despite being just 20 years old, Graterol has been dominant in his nine starts. A 1.89 ER and 8.7 K/9 are both plenty to marvel at. He needs to hone in the command some, but for a guy who can hit 100 mph on his fastball there’s just so much to like here. Unfortunately, he’s shut down with a shoulder impingement, but the hope is that there’s no long-term damaging effects.

2. Alex Kirilloff OF

It took some time for Kirilloff to get healthy and into action starting 2019, and then it took a bit more time for his bat to warm up. Across his last 11 games for Double-A Pensacola however, Kirilloff owns a 1.033 OPS and has six extra base hits (two homers). He’s a great athlete who has hit in each stop across the minor leagues and expecting the numbers to climb as the season goes on is a very good bet. He’s probably missed the window for 2019 time with the Twins, but 2020 should have him more than ready.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Entering the season as a top 10 prospect across all the big leagues Lewis has scuffled a bit in his second tour with High-A Fort Myers. A .726 OPS in 46 games last year has been followed up by a .606 OPS in 62 contests this season. The plate discipline has worn down a bit with walks not being as plentiful. He’s also tallied less extra base hits and seen the power production take a dive. Just recently turning 20, Royce is still so young and remains and elite prospect who should stick at shortstop as he rises the ranks. It’s time for him to adjust, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t.